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Belief Networks and Analytic Hierarchy Process and the use of Goal Tree to Improve the on quality
and sustainability of organizations.
J. C. Pereira
Center for Systems and Control, National Laboratory for Scientific Computing (LNCC), Petropolis, Brazil, jpereira@lncc.br and
Petropolis Catholic University, Petropolis, Brazil, josecristiano.pereira@ucp.br
F. Almeida
Petropolis Catholic University, Petropolis, Brazil. E-mail: flavio.42040103@ucp.br
Abstract: This paper proposes a method for identifying the high-level risks in the Magnetic Particle Inspection (MPI) of ferromagnetic
material parts, based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). The combination of probability and the
impact identified the most significant risks, which needed to be addressed to improve quality management system and ensure organization
sustainability. As a methodological approach, the estimated risk probabilities for the risk factors obtained from a case study and a survey
with experts were loaded into Bayesian Belief Networks software to assess the probability of occurrence of undesirable events and AHP
was utilized to rank the relative importance (effect) of risks. The combination of probabilities and the effects identified the most significant
risks. The novelty of the paper is the combination of Bayesian Belief Networks with AHP and the use of Goal Tree dashboard to improve
quality and sustainability in the inspection of critical parts. The application of the method revealed that the most significant risks in the
inspection of critical hardware are related to operator failure, unfavorable control and environment, negative organizational factors. The
paper proposes responses to these risks aiming at preventing the occurrence of failure in the MPI inspection of critical hardware. This
paper contributes to the literature in the field non-destructive inspection of critical parts. The proposed model has also practical implications
and is an invaluable source for non-destructive inspection professionals, safety engineers, quality managers and decision makers in
companies.
Keywords: Risk assessment, Bayesian Belief Network, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Critical Ferromagnetic Parts, Magnetic Particle, Goal
Tree, Quality Management System, Organizational Sustainability.
The intention is to help managers and decision makers, a phenomenon that has been extensively addressed.
providing answers to the main risks of failure of the MPI. According to Obtesol (2007), Isotec (2010) and UNLP
The probability of the occurrence of a certain risk, its impact (2012) the ferromagnetic and paramagnetic aeronautical
and consequences in the chain, as described by metallic components, which present some imperfect surface
KNEMEYER (2008) and, thus, adapting to improve the (up to 6 mm), be they cracks, pores, non-magnetic
quality and safety of MPI. The manufacture and inclusions in metallic material, are susceptible of being
maintenance of critical ferromagnetic parts are usually very inspected by the technique of magnetic particles. With this
complex and depend on human performance, software and test, discontinuities can be detected generated in the
technology. As mentioned by (Detmer, 2007), identifying production of aeronautical parts and in cracks generated
risks through a qualitative and quantitative risk analysis is during service, as consequence of overloads and load
essential. The application of the Goal Tree methodology, by cycles, such as fatigue (Log, 2010; UNLP, 2012) typical of
Bell Telephone Laboratories in 1962, creating the concept aircraft operations or main components, such as engines,
of failure analysis tree what, and the ability to keep the propellers, power trains, landing gear, retaining plates,
analysis focused on what is important for the success of the wheels, engine supports, screw design and control surfaces.
system as well as the respective iterations between the As a non-destructive test, END, the risks of its application
different departments, procedures and technologies. The in aeronautical elements must be carefully identified,
application of the method revealed that the most significant risks analysed, and mitigated, therefore, one of the processes of
in the inspection of critical hardware are related to operator failure, control and identification of responsibilities is the use of the
unfavorable control and environment, negative organizational Goal Tree.
factors. The innovative paper open a new boundary of proposes
and must identify responses to these risks aiming at preventing the 3. Quality and Operational Risk Assessment
occurrence of failure in the MPI inspection of critical
hardwareThis research is of great value for industrial managers Organizations strive to satisfy, or preferably exceed, the
who have the need to anticipate possible difficulties in the wants and expectations of the customer’s subject to meeting
application of MPI and, consequently, increased reliability the demands of the other stakeholders, to fulfil the aim of
and safety. the organization. Quality of product can only be achieved
by organizations that are in control of their processes and
Risk assessment in MPI allows decision makers to allocate functions, and that try to continually improve themselves.
funds for critical activities that can impact quality and Company and/or local image, however, can affect the
safety. The research questions are: perception of these quality dimensions, and work as a filter.
RQ 1. What are the main risk factors related to the MPI of If a provider is good in the eyes of the customer, minor
critical ferromagnetic parts? mistakes will be forgiven. If the image is negative, the
impact of any mistake will often be considerably greater
RQ 2. What are the risk responses needed to improve the than it otherwise would have been (Dyllick and Hockerts,
process and prevent MPI failure? 2002)
RQ 3. Can the responses to risks identified with the Quality is a broad, multi-interpretable, relative, and
proposed method improve product quality and ensure dynamic concept. As stated by quality standards, the most
organizational sustainability? important focus point in the quality management approach
is the customer. Above all, quality is delivering an output
The article is organized as follows: section 1 provides an meeting or exceeding customers’ expectations. Hence
introduction, section 2 is dedicated to the description of the quality is measured by, for instance, by customer
inspection of magnetic particles of critical ferromagnetic satisfaction rates or complaints. Economic reasoning
parts, section 3 addresses the assessment of quality and explains the strength of this perspective.
operational risk, section 4 covers sustainability The goals of manufacturing and services excellence efforts
organization, section 5 covers the assessment of BBN's include maintaining market share, improving profitability
section 6 covers risk assessment with AHP, section 7 and the firm's ability to compete in a global marketplace
describes the process methodology (Suketu and Desai, 2016). This author describes the
2. Description of Magnetic Particle Inspection of concept, approaches and identification of critical success
critical ferromagnetic parts. factors, performance measures for lean manufacturing and
services practices. Quality and innovation are two key
The non-destructive magnetic particle test consists of competitive strategies that many organizations pursue to
subjecting a part to appropriate magnetization. It is one of win customers in their business (Pak Tee Ng., 2014).
the oldest known tests and today there is a wide variety of
International quality standard such as ISO 9001-2015,
applications in different sectors. In aviation it is used for its
AS9100 and ISO 31000/2018 requires the implementation
advantages such as: simple methodology, easy
of operational risk management process to improve safety.
interpretation, economy, and portability, allowing the use of
Islama et al. (2017) stated that work overload and stress
the technique in components such as landing gears, engine
increased the likelihood of human error as well as potential
assemblies, assembly fixing of primary structures and
accidents and developed an application in human factor risk
screws used in the different systems of the structure. It is
assessment that can assist in improving the safety and
necessary, to consider that the physical principle on which
reliability in operations.
the inspection of magnetic particles is based is Magnetism,
Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference
4. Organizational Sustainability (Groth and Swiler, 2013). Barua et al. (2016) proposed a
risk assessment methodology for dynamic systems based on
Corporate sustainability means meeting the needs of a
Bayesian network, which represents the dependencies
firm’s direct and indirect stakeholders (such as
among variables graphically and captures the changes of
shareholders, employees, clients, pressure groups,
variables over time by the dynamic Bayesian network.
communities etc.), without compromising its ability to meet
Kanesa et al. (2017), presented a case study of the
the needs for future stakeholders as well. Sustainability has
quantitative risk assessment of a process unit using BN. The
been developed also towards a more relative concept as the
different steps of the development of the BN were detailed,
level of sustainability is related to the needs of stakeholders
including translation of a Bowtie into a skeletal BN,
and the extent to which these needs are fulfilled (Dyllick
modification of the skeletal BN to incorporate reliability
and Hockerts, 2002). Furthermore, the relative importance
data, and insertion of equipment failure evidence into the
of the different stakeholders can change as well as the needs
BN for dynamic modelling.
of the stakeholders, which implies that the meaning of
sustainability also has become a dynamic. 6. Risk Assessment with Analytic Hierarchy Process
The need to specify the responsibility is also relevant when (AHP)
an organization applies sustainability to its supporting Saaty (1980) first introduced the Analytic Hierarchy
activities. In literature, the nature of the responsibility is Process (AHP) to provide a relative weight of criteria
established by means of the stakeholder concept (Dyllick according to a hierarchical structure. The method depends
and Hockerts, 2002). Yet, since there is more than one on a pairwise comparison of alternatives, which is
stakeholder, the ambiguity with respect to the sustainability quantified in a matrix. The technique has been used in
approach has not really been decreased. An organization numerous disciplines to solve complex decision problems.
must specify the boundaries of the chosen responsibility It divides a complicated problem into smaller parts that can
system. be ranked hierarchically. The first stage of AHP is to
According to Freeman Freeman et al. (2004), the construct a pairwise comparison matrix (Saaty, 1986). Each
Stakeholder Theory postulates that corporations have duties element aij (i, j = 1, 2, ..., n) represents the relative
to multiple stakeholders. Stakeholders can be internal, such importance of elements i and j. A higher value denotes a
as employees, including management; or external, such as stronger preference of element i over element j (Karel,
customers, suppliers, banks, environmentalists, Otcenaskova, 2013, Iberraken, 2013). The values can be
governments, and other groups. Some stakeholders may be specified according to a relative importance scale provided
considered both internal and external, such as stockholders. by Saaty (1980).
Stakeholders can also be divided into primary and
secondary groupings, where primary one has a more direct 7. Methodology
influence or are influenced by the company to a greater This section describes the methodology used to obtain
degree than secondary ones (Castka and Prajogo, 2013). responses to the research questions. Figure 1 presents the
5. Risk Assessment with Bayesian Belief Networks methodology steps.
(BBNs) To have a realistic Goal Tree, its necessary mapping all
process. Each step, resources, standard and activity must be
Bayesian Networks (BNs, also called Bayesian Belief organized by hierarch level so, the first step in developing a
Networks (BBNs) provide a causal structure that allows goal tree model, involves definition of goal or objective.
probability risk analysis practitioners to gain deeper insight This top goal must be explicitly defined in terms which
into risk drivers and into specific interventions that reduce make it a single unambiguous statement. It is from this
risk (Rechenthin, 2004), (Mosleh, 1992). Bayesian was definition that the analyst will identify and relate all the
used in the Estimation of Failure Probability in Mechanical different plant goals and subgoals which must be achieved
Systems Using Monte Carlo Simulation (Guérin et al., to attain the overall objective.
2016). Efficient Bayesian Network was used in Learning for
System Optimization in Reliability Engineering (Gruber
and Ben-Gal, 2016). Objective Bayesian Analysis was used
for Recurrent Events in Presence of Competing Risks (Fu et
al. 2016). Exact Bayesian was used to predict Exponential
Lifetime Based on Fixed and Random Sample Sizes (Fu et
al. 2016).
There has been an increasing trend in the application of
Bayesian networks in fields related to reliability, safety and
maintenance (Mahadevan et al. 2001). Bayesian approaches
to aggregate expert judgments on probabilities have been
extensively investigated in risk and reliability analysis
(Podofillini and Dang, 2013), Droguett et al. 2004). BBNs
provide a framework for addressing many of the
shortcomings of human reliability analysis from a
researcher perspective and from a practitioner perspective Fig. 1. Methodology steps.
Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference
To construct GT model after identifying all tasks, steps, Man9 Operator Fatigue 1
sources, events and their relationship, we might write each Man10 Poor visual acuity, color vision 1
one in a box and, connect all then by arrows to understand Man11 Inspectors not motivated 2
all connections since main goal box until low line box level. Man2 Eyewear 3
Mat1 Unsuitable particle 1
You can use many levels you need to find all relation that Mat2 Unsuitable carrier 1
could impact on main goal. Mat3 Unsuitable cleaning solvent 2
Tropos (2019) introduces primitives for modeling actors of Mat4 Solution not tested for concentration 1
Mat5 Surface condition of part improper 2
the system (agentive entities), and goals that actors intend
Mat6 Part complex 2
to achieve. A task represents an abstract way to do Mat7 Defect type 1
something, and its execution can be a means for satisfying Met1 Parameters not correctly documented 1
a goal. When goals/tasks are at high abstraction levels, they Met2 Particle application method not defined 1
can be refined through and/or-decomposition into finer sub- Met3 Particle application method wrongly defined 1
goals/sub-tasks. A resource represents a physical or an Met4 Part magnetization sequence not defined 1
informational entity. Finally, a dependency allows actors to Met5 Part magnetization sequence wrongly defined 1
depend on one another for the fulfillment of goals, Met6 Magnetization 1
execution of tasks, and provision of resources. The risk factors from Table 2 were classified into the
8. Results following categories: operator failure, improper material,
uncorrected method, deficient equipment, unfavourable
The risk factors gathered by the authors from the most environment, and negative organization factors. The risk
current literature on MPI of critical ferromagnetic parts and factors were classified into pertinent risk sublevels so that
from the case study were classified into six categories the causes and consequences of each risk could be defined.
named: Manpower, Material, Method, Machine, Table 3 shows the risk levels, sublevels, and the associated
Environment and Organization. The authors raised 12 risk factors. As an example, this table shows that operator
factors related to Manpower (Man1-Man12), 7 related to failure (L1) may be caused by inadequate training (SL1),
Material (Mat1-Mat7), 9 related to Method (Met1-Met9), 8 negative attitude (SL2) and lack of skills (SL3). Inadequate
related to Machine (Mac1-Mac8), 12 related to Environment training may be caused by Operators lack of knowledge
(Env1-Env12) and 12 related to Organization (Org1-Org12). defects (Man1); on-the-job training not received (Man4),
The experts were asked to estimate the probability level Training material poor (Man5), Preventive Maintenance
(very likely, likely, possible, unlikely or very unlikely) for operator error (Man7) and Operator skill and experience
each risk factor contributing to MPI failure when processing (Man8). A negative attitude may be caused by Operator lack
critical ferromagnetic parts. The scores 1 to 5 were assigned of attention (Man2), Operator distraction (Man3),
to each risk factor by different experts based on Table 1. Horizontal communication poor (Man6) and inspectors lack
Table 1 Probability Level Scores 8 motivation (Man11). Lack of skills may be caused by
Operator Fatigue (Man9), Visual acuity, and color vision
Probability Score Probability Level Probability (Man10), and Eyewear (Man12).
5 Very Likely More than 0.8
4 Likely 0.5 – 0.8 Table 3 Risk Levels, Sub-Levels and Associated Risk Factor
3 Possible 0.31 – 0.50
2 Unlikely 0.11 – 0.30 Risk Level Risk Sub-Level Associated Risk Factor
1 Very Unlikely Bellow 0.10 SL1 Inadequate training Man1, Man4, Man5, Man7, Man8
Manpower
L1 SL2 Negative attitude Man2, Man3, Man6, Man11
Table 1 only guided experts on the probability elicitation poor prepared
process. Probability Elicitation was used to encode the SL3 Lack of skills Man9, Man10, Man12
subjective judgments of experts into probabilities. Such SL4 Wrong choice of Mat1, Mat2, Mat3
probabilistic judgments were used to obtain information that materials
Improper
L2 Material & Ineffective material Mat4, Mat5
could not be obtained directly from data or observation. The SL5
monitoring
Hardware
process was useful in the evaluation of risks. Experts were SL6 Improper hardware Mat6, Mat7
condition
able to classify the risks using the table with no
Operational
difficulties.The probability scores obtained from experts SL7
procedure not
Met2, Met4, Met6, Met8
SL16 Monitoring & Org3 Org5, Org6 Table 4. Relative Importance Matrix.
control ineffective
Negative
Manpower poorly
L6 Organization SL17 Quality &safe Org1, Org2, Org4, Org8, Org9
management
Factor
Unfavourable
Environment
Organization
Material and
Incorrected
Lack of adequate
Equipment
Instrument
SL18 Org7, Org 10, Org11, Org12
Risks
Hardware
control &
Improper
Negative
resources
prepared
Method
Weight
Factors
Failure
The risk factors and risk sublevels were combined in BBN‟s
Manpower poorly
for each risk level. The primary nodes are represented by the 1,00 3,00 3,00 5,00 0,14 1,00 3,00
prepared
risk factors. BBN‟s combined all Risk Levels, Sub-levels Improper Material
0,33 1,00 1,00 3,00 0,14 1,00 3,00
and Hardware
and associated risk factors. BBN´s were built for Risk Incorrected
0,33 1,00 1,00 3,00 0,41 3,00 3,00
Method
Levels L1, L2, L3, L4, L5 and L6 and are shown in Figure Equipment
1,00 0,33 0,33 1,00 0,05 0,33 3,00
2. Instrument Failure
Unfavourable control
1,00 1,00 0,33 0,33 0,14 1,00 1,00
& Environment
Negative
0,33 0,33 0,33 0,33 0,14 1,00 1,00
Organization Factors
Manpower poorly
Unfavourable
Environment
Organization
Material and
Incorrected
Equipment
Instrument
Risks
Hardware
control &
Improper
Negative
prepared
Method
Weight
Factors
Failure
Manpower poorly
0,25 0,45 0,50 0,39 0,14 0,21 0,32
prepared
Improper Material
0,08 0,15 0,17 0,24 0,14 0,21 0,16
and Hardware
Incorrected
0,08 0,15 0,17 0,24 0,41 0,21 0,21
Method
Equipment
0,25 0,05 0,06 0,08 0,05 0,21 0,12
Instrument Failure
Unfavourable control
0,25 0,15 0,06 0,03 0,14 0,07 0,11
& Environment
Negative
0,08 0,05 0,06 0,03 0,14 0,07 0,07
Organization Factors
The Risk Scoring Matrix for the 6 risks showing the decision-making criteria. Third, the paper shows that risk
probabilities, impacts and respective risk scorings for each factors identified with the method should be considered
risk are presented in Table 8. critical and be controlled to avoid critical ferromagnetic
parts failure. The probability and impact of risks associated
Table 8. Risk Scoring Matrix
with MPI were predicted quantitatively showing that
Probab. Impact Risk
Risk Probab. Impact Scoring Scoring Scoring preventive actions can be planned to minimize the
Operator Failure 0,15 0,324231032 4 5 20 downtime of the manufacturing and services process and
Improper Material 0,07 0,164581909 2 4 8
Uncorrected Method 0,08 0,210036455 2 4 8 delay in production and part failure.
Equipment/Instrument Failure 0,08 0,115707197 2 5 8
Unfavourable Control & Environment 0,13 0,114943925 4 5 20 Hardware operators are responsible to make sure the
Negative Organization Factors 0,14 0,070499481 4 5 20 management of critical ferromagnetic parts is effective to
ensure parts are inspected periodically and removed from
The risks associated operator failure, unfavourable control
service, as per requirements defined in manufacturer
and environment and negative organizational factors were
approved technical data. They are also responsible for risk
evaluated to be particularly at “Intolerable” risk level.
assessment in MPI inspection to ensure full compliance to
A Goal Tree was constructed vertically downward from the manufacturer requirements to avoid accidents and loss of
objective in levels, wherein each identified goal was divided lives.
into a necessary and sufficient set of dependent subgoals.
In response to the first research question, the proposed
The Goal Tree in Figure 2 presents a logical model of a MPI method identified the most critical risks in the MPI
successful process from which success paths can be inspection of critical ferromagnetic parts and can be used to
determined, including the relationship between them. A plan risk responses to make the inspection more effective
success path shows various components that can impact and safer.
positively or negatively on proper of the successful
It is noteworthy here that it is not possible to infer these
operation of the system.
significant risks from a specialist opinion only. The
Bayesian Belief Network and Analytic Hierarchy Process
(AHP) tools are especially important in this process. As a
by-product of the results, it is suggested that these methods
should be used by companies to identify the critical risks in
MPI of critical hardware.
In response to the second research question, the result of the
simulation shows that actions to the significant risks should
be taken, as shown by the goal tree. Important actions are:
definition of the criteria for training the operator
theoretically and hands on (on the job training), the issuance
of a detailed user-friendly instructions for the operators and
for the control of all variables of the MPI process.
Awareness training of the production leadership and the
people involved with production planning would also be
especially important. Focus on the organizational factors
would also prevent the failure of the MPI inspection.
In response to the third research question, the results show
that by implementing responses to the identified risks,
quality of operation can be maximizing, and organizational
sustainability can be maintained, once all stakeholders‟
needs and expectations are met, as described in Section 4.
In conclusion, this paper presents a method for risk
Figure 3 - Application of Risk Assessment using Goal Tree in the
assessment of MPI on critical parts. It also proposes actions
Magnetic Particle inspection of critical parts
to improve quality and sustainability of organization. This
9. Conclusion study opened some new research avenges for future and can
be applied similarity in other non-destructive inspections.
The proposed method is important for several reasons. First,
risk assessment using AHP is gaining importance in the References
industry and the adoption of multi criteria decision-making
Abd Ellah, A; Sultan, K (2016). Exact Bayesian Prediction of
in the MPI inspection of critical ferromagnetic parts has not Exponential Lifetime Based on Fixed and Random Sample
been reported yet. The application of the methodology has Sizes. Quality Technology and Quantitative Management
been simulated successfully in this study and identified the 2(2) 161-175.
critical risk factors in the MPI of critical ferromagnetic Barua, S., Gao, X., Pasman. H., Mannan, S. (2016). Bayesian
parts. Second, this study combines two approaches, the network based dynamic operational risk assessment, Original
BBN and AHP and considers the risk of MPI failure as
Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference