RISK MANAGEMENT FOR ENERGY

INFRASTRUCTURE
Module 5: Climate change projections
Prepared by Jorge Paz ( Tecnalia)
 1.- Presentation of this module

Main objectives
• Understand the global climate system
• Understand the main drivers and processes involved in climate change
• Understand what a climate (change) scenario is.
• Know how IPCC climate scenarios are developed
• Know all the steps and models involved in climate risk assessment and climate change adaptation
• How to choose (or not) climate models and all the scenarios assumption considered in their elaboration.
• Understand Why there are national and sub-national climate scenarios and how they are generated
• Understand what does climate projections uncertainty means and how to handle.
• Compile a basic knowledge of climate data processing
Operational objectives:
• Where to find climate projections
• How to choose climate projection data
• What are causes of differences between different scenarios
• Asses the outcomes of different kinds of climate models
Recommended resources:
• A computer (Windows, Mac or Linux)
• Spreadsheet software: Microsoft Excel, but Openoffice and other open software is always welcome!!
• A flexible text editor: NotePad++ is an example (Windows Notes isn´t).
• Python: Anaconda platform recommended.
• A compression program: IzArc, etc.
• Google Chrome and a Gmail account.
 1.- Presentation of this module

Additional learning materials:

• Copernicus Climate Change User Learning Service. Interesting portal with learning materials (lessons, pathways, etc.) The next lessons are
particularly interesting
• C3S ULS: Climate Projections
• Uncertainty, Robustness and Confidence
• Using climate models for climate scenarios
• MOOCs from Copernicus:
• https://www.mooc.copernicus.eu
• Primavera project: The most interesting learning resourcers are the Climate fact-shets
• Climate Europe: Factsheets and articles about the climate services landscape.
• CoastAdapt: Interesting resources about climate change focussing on coastal areas. Of special interest.
• What are the RCPs?, Factsheet :
• How to understand climate change scenarios
• Role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning
• Climate Science Special Report: Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections. Projections, Chapter 4
• L.O. Mearns, M. Hulme et al, 2001: IPCC, AR3, WG 1, Chapter 13 Climate Scenario Development,
• World Bank: E-Platform on Weather and Climate Services for Resilient Development: A Guide for Practitioners and Policy Makers (Self-
Paced course about the development of the climate services from the value-chain approach)
• Examples National Climate Scenarios:
• Australia,2015:
• USGCRP :Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) of the U.S. Global Change Research Program
• European National Climate Scenarios: links included in next slides
• Skelton, M. et al. 2017. The social and scientific values that shape national climate scenarios: a comparison of the Netherlands,
Switzerland and the UK,
NOTE: if not indicated, all links accessed on February 2021. Contact the theacher if they don´t work or if you are interested in any particular topic.
 1.- Presentation of this module

Contents:

1.- Presentation of this module

2.- Climate change
3.- How are climate projections generated?
4.- How to use climate projections?
5.- Analysing climate projections uncertainty
6.- How to choose climate projections data
7.- National scenarios
8.- Impact models
9.- Data processing See ipython notebooks on how to use climate projections.

In next slides you will find a synthesis of the available information for each topic in black.

You will find also some ideas, advices, etc. from the very personal perspective of the teacher in orange. I hope this is useful, but don´t consider it
as the “official knowledge”. Others may differ.
 2.- Climate change

Climate change: main drivers Observed Warming (a) and Contribution to warming based on two
complementary approaches (b) and (c). [3]

Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can. be
identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean. and/or the
variability of its properties and that persists for an extended. period, typically
decades or longer [1]. The main cause of climate change is the increasing
cocentration of GHG in the atmosphere, altering the Earth energy balance.

Estimate of the
Earth’s annual
and global
mean energy
balance. [2]

Sources:
[1] IPCC: AR5. Annexes
[2] IPCC: Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis
[3] IPCC 6AR. Working Group 1:Climate Change 2021The Physical Science Basis (*) Note: We usually refer to climate change when we want to mention
“anthropogenic climate change”, caused by the increase of GHG in the atmosphere from
the preindustrial period and other anthropogenic factors
 2.- Climate change
Global warming and climate change: Causes and effects: The
primary causes and the wide-ranging effects of global warming
Climate change: feedbacks and resulting climate change. Some effects constitute feedback
mechanisms that intensify climate change.

But there are dozens of “climate feedbacks” (processes that amplify or

diminish the effect of climate forcing).

Examples of climate feedbacks: Clouds and water vapour

Sources
[1] RCraig09: Global warming and climate change - vertical block diagram - causes effects feedback.
[2] Skeptical Science: https://skepticalscience.com/graphics.php
 2.- Climate change
Circulation of the
global ocean and
Climate change: polar regions potential impact of
climate change [2]

Feedbacks cause “Polar amplification”: faster increase of temperatures in the polar regions). It is
melting an increasing amount of ice that is slowing and modifying the thermohaline circulation.

Increased air temperature leads to ice

melting, which lowers the surface
elevation of the ice sheet, hence
leading to ice exposure to warmer air
temperatures and further ice melting.

Melting ice and snow lowers surface

albedo, leading to increased absorption
of shortwave radiation and amplified
warming Radiative and non-radiative feedbacks in polar regions. TOA= top of the
atmosphere. Solar radiation (in yellow) and Infrared Radiation (in red)
represent the shortwave (solar) and longwave (infrared) radiation
An initial retreat in the grounding line exchanges. (+) means that the feedback is positive (increasing global
position of a marine ice sheet on an warming), (-) corresponds to a negative feedback. The gray line on the right
upward-sloping bed towards the ocean
leads to increased ice discharge, ice represents a simplified temperature profile in polar regions for the
thinning and further retreat. atmosphere and the ocean, the dashed line corresponding to a strong
surface inversion. Details for are provided here. Source: [1]
Sources
[1] EHSO: Causes of Climate Changes: Changes in Ocean Currents
[2] Goosse, H. (2018) Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions
 2.- Climate change
Global
circulation (left)
Climate change: polar influence and the Jet
Stream (right).
Sources: [1] and
Climate change can weaken the polar vortex and the jet [2]
stream, making more probable that artic episodes with cold
air to reach mid-latitudes. It may also have dramatic effec on
the termohaline circulation and global climate system

Influence of
climate change in
the Artic
circulation.
Source: [3]

Representation of the potential climate response to

Arctic sea ice loss. Source: [4]
Sources
[1] University of Berkeley: Understanding Global Change
[2] National Weather Services: The Jet Stream
[3] The Straits Times JAN 31, 2019: What is the polar vortex and why is it so cold?
[4] Screen, J. A. et al. (2018) Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models
 2.- Climate change
Flood processes impacted by changes in sub-daily extreme precipitation. Contributions to
increases (+) and decreases (−) in flooding are marked with the most dominant processes with the
highest certainties indicated in bold. Source: [1].
Climate change: other effects

There are many other feedbacks. As an example, in important

areas, several mechanism contribute to cause heavier
precipitations and floods, but, on the other hand, severe
droughts are expected in important regions.

Effects of land-cover change on climate regulation in tropical

rainforests. Although less solar radiation is absorbed in deforested areas,
a greater proportion of the net radiation is released as sensible heat,
resulting in a warmer and drier climate near the surface. Source [2].
Important: these trends are not always applicable to vegetation lost, e.g.,
changes in albedo will depends on the color and material of the
“deforested” surface (see table).

Sources
[1] Carbon Brief: Guest post: How hourly rainfall extremes are changing in a warming climate.
[2] West, Paul C. et al. (2011) An alternative approach for quantifying climate regulation by ecosystems
 2.- Climate change

Map of the most important tipping elements in the Earth System overlain on the Köppen climate
classification. There are three groups of tipping elements: ice bodies (cryosphere entities), circulations
Climate change: tipping points of the ocean and atmosphere (circulation patterns), and large-scale ecosystems (biosphere
components. Question marks indicate systems whose status as tipping elements is particularly
uncertain. Source: [1].
When relevant aspects of the climate approach a
threshold, these components can be tipped into a
qualitatively different state by small external
perturbations., These elements characterized by a
threshold behavior are known as “Tipping elements” or
“tipping points”. Some of them are large-scale
components of the Earth system. Considering and analogy
with the human body, tipping elements could be
described as organs which drastically alter or stop
functioning normally if certain requirements, such as
oxygen supply, are not met.

There are clear connections between this tipping points

(e.g.: the previously commented relation between
Greenland Ice Sheet instability and the Atlantic
thermohaline Circulation, strong “Niñas” may damage the
Tropical Coral Reefs, a meandering jet stream contributes
to more warm events in Siberia boosting permafrost
melting, etc.)

Sources
[1] PIK: Tipping Elements - the Achilles Heels of the Earth System
 Circulation patterns in the
2.- Climate change pacific during el Niño and La
Niña events

La Niña Teleconnections

Climate change: tipping points: ENSO

El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a cycle of warm “El Niño”
and “cool La Niña” episodes that happen every few years in the
tropical Pacific Ocean. It is the most dramatic year-to-year
variation of the Earth’s climate system with important
“Teleconnections”: During El Niño, chances for drought increase
across India, Indonesia and Australia and a large part of the
Amazon, while the southern U.S. tends to see more precipitation.
During La Niña, the pattern is reversed, with wetter conditions for
Indonesia, Australia and parts of the Amazon, and dry conditions
in southern U.S.

Under high emission scenarios extreme El Niño and La Niña events

may increase in frequency from about one every 20 years to one
every 10 years by the end of the 21st century. In a warming El Niño Teleconnections
climate, rainfall extremes are projected to shift eastward along
the equator in the Pacific Ocean during El Niño events and
westward during extreme La Niña events. Less clear is the
potential evolution of rainfall patterns in the mid-latitudes.

Sources
[1] NOAA: How will climate change change El Niño and La Niña?
 3.- How are climate projections generated?
Future emissions scenarios in IPCC AR6 [1]

Climate (change) scenario

A climate scenario is a plausible image of a future climate based on knowledge of
the past climate and assumptions on future change (mainly, increase of
greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, but it could also include other forcings).
They are constructed to estimate the impact of climate change. Usually, they are
constructed with the help of climate model information.

What are climate projections?

Climate projections should be understood as future possible climates derived
from different scenarios (emission scenarios, etc.) using multiple climate
models.

Sources:
[1] IPCC 6AR. Working Group
Projections of
1:Climate Change 2021 The
global
Physical Science Basis
temperature
[2] LAMPS (York University):
change in IPCC
http://lamps.math.yorku.ca/
AR5 (left) [2] and
WorldClimate/Apps/GWworl
AR6 (right)[1]
d.htm#/
 3.- How are climate projections generated?

How are climate projections generated?

A cascade of scenarios (based on uncertainties) must be considered in developing

climate and related scenarios for climate change impact, adaptation and risk
assessment: socio-economic scenarios, GHG emission scenarios, etc. Often the
term climate scenarios is used for any of the different types of scenarios involved
(not only changes in climate, but also on society, economy, land use, etc.) To
prevent misunderstandings, if you want to refer specifically to a particular kind of
scenario it's better to use the full terminology (socioeconomic scenarios, emission
scenarios, etc.).

Climate projections generates long term series of variables as temperature,

precipitation, wind, etc. However, the evaluation of sea level rise is based on
different models that are coupled to climate projections, and simulates the factors
that are contributing to this phenomenon (mainly, thermal expansion and added
water from melted glaciers).

Processed involved in developing climate and related scenarios for

climate change impact, adaptation and mitigation assessment. Figure
from IPCC TAR ([1]). Note that Sea Level Rise and “other” climate
projections take differentiated pathways.
Source: [1] IPCC AR3, Figure 13.2: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar3/wg1/chapter-13-climate-
scenario-development/
 3.- How are climate projections generated?

Connections between IAMs and climate models for

generating climate projections Different types of models according to their level of detail, showing connections
between IAMs and ESMs: based on [1] and [2]
The steps for developing climate change scenarios for the 5AR and 6 AR
Complexity of
were: environmental
simulations
- Developing emission scenarios and translating them to Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCP) using Integrated Assessment Models
(IAMs). The RCPs were designed in such a way that they represent a
Physical risk
wide range of radiative forcing of the climate system at year 2100 and assessment and
thus GreenHouse Gases (GHG) concentrations. adaptation

- Simulating the effect of different RCP's on the climate with a large Earth
system Climate forcing:
number of dynamical Earth System Models (ESMs). models • Land use and cover
data
Integrated assesment • Harmonized GHG
The IPCC climate scenarios are the difference of these projections models emissions
Energy and other • GHG concentrations
compared to the reference climate, in the AR5 report the period 1986- mitigation policies • Gridded reactive Gas
2005 (mean changes per RCP are determined and the probable range). Economic
integrated
emissions
assesment
• Ozone and aerosol
models concentration fields
Computable
general
equilibrium
models
Sources:
[1]: van Vuuren, Detlef P. et al. (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Complexity of
[2] PBL 2014 at Image Sustainable Lyfestyles Project economics
simulations
 3.- How are climate projections generated?
Concept used in climate models and some of the processed that
are typically simulated.

Climate models (concept)

The development of g climate change scenarios for the Fifth
IPCCAssessment Report involve the use of two kinds of models.

- Development of emission scenarios and translating them to

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) using Integrated
Assessment Models (IAMs).

- Simulating the effect of different RCP's on the climate with a large

number of dynamical Earth System Models (ESMs).

Let´s see first this last kind of models. Now all of them are considered
coupled climate models because they simulate both the atmosphere
and the oceans. They are computer codes that divide the earth climate
system in cells and estimate the solution to differential equations of
fluid motion and thermodynamics to obtain time and space dependent
values for temperature, winds, currents, moisture, salinity and pressure
in the atmosphere and ocean.

Sources:
[1] NOAA: Climate model: https://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/modeling_schematic.html
 3.- How are climate projections generated?
Increasing
complexity of
climate models (the
Climate models (complexity) world as seen by
the global climate
models)
But they haven´t been always that way. Few decades ago, they only simulated the energy
balance and atmospheric processes. Additional components of climate models allows
them to simulate the radiation balance, the oceans, ice dynamics, the land surface and
the vegetation on land, the biogeochemistry of the atmosphere , etc. When a model can
“close” the carbon cycle, it is considered an Earth System model.

Processes
simulated by the
Community Earth
System Model
(CESM) [3]

Difference between a
climate model and an ESM.
The components in green
boxes (biochemical
processes resolving the
Sources: carbon cycle) makes a
[1] IPCC 2007: 4AR: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis climate model an ESM [2]
[2] Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling project (SOCCOM):
What is an Earth System Model (ESM)?
[3] UCAR: Climate modelling
 3.- How are climate projections generated?
Progress in resolution of climate models (left) and an example of resolution of
CMIP3 generation models (right) [2]
Climate models (coverage and resolution)
Global climate models (GCM) refers to models that simulate the whole
climate system (independently of their complexity). Despite their
increasing resolution, they are not able to simulate high resolution
processes.

Regional Climate Models (RCMs) can be employed to increase

resolution even further. RCMs represent all the atmospheric physics of
GCMs but are run only over a smaller area and can therefore have
higher resolution (from 60 km down to below 10 km). Typically, an RCM
is ‘embedded’ or ‘nested’ within a host GCM, which provides the large-
scale climate fields (e.g., sea surface temperatures, wind and pressure
fields) needed to drive the RCM. This is usually referred to as the GCM
providing the ‘boundary conditions’ for the RCM.
Regional climate downscaling provides greater detail at local and
regional scales, which is vital to improving analysis of vulnerability,
impact and adaptation
Nesting of RCM into a GCM
(Source [2])
Sources:
[1] Climate change in Australia: Climate model resolution. Based on an
IPCC AR4 figure, so drawings are for 2007, while the box text is for 2014.
[2] Courtesy of Justin Glisan at WRCP (2018): WCRP Spotlight: The
Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)
 3.- How are climate projections generated?

Integrated assessment models

We have analyzed in the previous slides the characteristics of Earth System How do Integrated Assessment Models Work: Source: [3]
Models (ESM). World Climate Research Program Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), use advanced ESM to estimate the
combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions)
on the carbon-climate system.

Now we are going to know the Integrated assessment models or IAMs. IAMs
are capable of providing the information ESM need simulating the
penetration of energy technologies, energy use choices, land-use changes
and societal trends that cause – or avoid – greenhouse gas emissions.

They do this using linked “modules” simulating the global economy, as well
as its energy, land and climate systems. Their main strength is this integrated
simulations, but each part of an IAM tends to be simplified compared to a
dedicated sector-specific economic model or a state-of-the-art Earth System
climate model.

Sources:
[1]: van Vuuren, Detlef P. et al. (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview.
[2] PBL 2014 at Image Sustainable Lyfestyles Project
[3] Carbon Brief: How ‘integrated assessment models’ are used to study climate change
 3.- How are climate projections generated?

Integrated assessment models Harmonized global land use area fractions 850–2015 (baseline historical) and 2015–
2100 for eight future scenarios: [1]
Six groups participated in the recent Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
(SSP) modelling project that serve as the basis for the no-policy baseline
and mitigation scenarios featured in the IPCC 6AR.

Land-Use Harmonization project (LUH2) provides a harmonized set of

land-use scenarios that smoothly connects the historical
reconstructions of land-use with the future projections in the format
required for CMIP6 ESMs. It also provides time series of harmonized
management variables.

LUH2 is tailored to CMIP6 needs and designed for

providing global consistency through time. So, it may not
necessarily be the optimal dataset for a local or regional
analysis of land use impacts on biogeochemistry,
biodiversity, etc.

For accessing the rest of the data provided by the IAMS (population,
GDP, urbanization, etc.), it is interesting to visit the SSP Database. We
will see some figures later.

Sources: [1]. Hurtt, G. C. et al. 2022: Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6
 3.- How are climate projections generated?
SRES scenarios [1] CO2 equivalent emissions for 5AR RCP scenarios [3]

Climate scenarios
IS92 scenarios (used in IPCC SAR – 1995): First family of climate
B1
scenarios, including societal and economic variables.

SRES scenarios (used in IPCC TAR–2001and 4AR–2007):

"baseline" scenarios (they do not consider any current or future
measures to limit greenhouse gas). Different families of scenarios
in two dimensions: Economic vs environmental focus (A-B) and
globalization vs regionalization (1 vs 2) denoted as A1, A2, B1, B2.

Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs (used in IPCC

5AR –2014-) are greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions)
CO2 equivalent Concentration for 5AR RCP and SRES
trajectories. The RCPs are labelled after a possible range of
scenarios [2]
radiative forcing values in the year 2100 (e.g. 2.6, 4.5, 6, and 8.5
W/m2, see next slide). Since AR5 the original pathways are being
considered together with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
(providing the socio-economic context).

Sources:
[1] IPCC 2000: IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.
[2] Welch, D. J. et al (2014 )Implications of climate change impacts on fisheries resources of northern Australia. Part 1:
Vulnerability assessment and adaptation
[3] Neil Craik, University of Waterloo at Climate Nexus: RCP8,5 Business-as-usual or a worst-case scenario?
 3.- How are climate projections generated?
SSP narratives [2]

Shared socioeconomic pathways

The SSPs comprise five narratives and a set of driving forces.

SSP scenarios quantify energy and land-use developments and
associated uncertainties for greenhouse gas and air pollutant
emissions.
Main steps in developing the SSPs, including the narratives, socioeconomic
scenario drivers (basic SSP elements), and SSP baseline and mitigation
scenarios.[1]

Sources:
[1] Riahi, Keywan et al. (2017) The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
[2] Bauer, Nico (2017) Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives
 3.- How are climate projections generated?
Global CO2 emissions (GtCO2) for all IAM runs in the SSP database v1 (in 2018)
separated out by SSP. [1]
Shared socioeconomic pathways

The main outcome of the SSP are climate emissions and

concentrations. Ideally, all RCP and SSP can be combined, but
some combinations are highly improbable (a high emission
GHG world is not compatible with high penetration of
renewables, etc.). Not all IAMs ran all SSPs. ScenarioMIP
experiment within CMIP6 has developed a suite of nine
scenarios. Prioritize them!

SSP-RCP scenario matrix illustrating CMIP6 ScenarioMIP simulations.

(*) Note: the developers of the SSPs make no

claim as to the relative likelihood of any scenario
Sources: coming to pass. It is certainly possible to imagine a
[1] Carbon Brief: Explainer: How ‘Shared Socioeconomic Pathways’ explore future climate change SSP3 or SSP5 world.
[2] Gidden, Matthew J. et al. (2019) Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a
dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century
 3.- How are climate projections generated?
Evolution of the radiative forcing for RCP and SRES scenarios, 2000-2100 [1]

Climate scenarios: RCP in IPCC 5AR

For several socio-economic pathways the emissions of the various GHGs
are determined. The radiative forcing of all GHG's is summed and
expressed as the CO2 -equivalent concentration. The names of the RCP's
indicate the radiative forcing of each scenario around year 2100.RCPs
(2.6, 4.5, 6, and 8.5 W/m2). They are linked to SSP, but it is not explicit in
the name of the scenario.

Radiative
forcing
estimates in
2011 relative to
1750 and
aggregated
uncertainties
for the main
drivers of
climate change
[1]

Sources: [1] IPCC 2004: AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
 3.- How are climate projections generated?
The role of ScenarioMIP in the CMIP6 ecosystem [1]

Scenarios in IPCC 6AR

Additionally to the evolution of the models,
the number of different experiments
conducted, number of modelling groups
participating, etc. CMIP6 represents a
substantial expansion over CMIP5 in terms of
the the number of future scenarios examined

The ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6

has developed a suite of nine scenarios of
future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic
sources. Using IAMs, 14 different emissions
species and 13 emissions sectors are provided
for each scenario with consistent transitions
from the historical data.

Source:
[1] Gidden, Matthew J. et al. (2019) Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century
 3.- How are climate projections generated?
Radiative forcing
and changes in the
Scenarios in IPCC 6AR global mean
temperature from
SSP [1]
ScenarioMIP provides the radiative forcings but also climate
projections of main are also provided, but you should take into
consideration that haven been developed by the climate modules
included in the IAMs.

Additionally to the combinations of SSP and RCP, there are some

“special” scenarios:

The SSP5 3.4 OS (Overshot) scenario follows the pathway of the

SSP5 8.5 during the first decades. Forcing peaks in 2050 and then
declines to 3.4 W m−2 by 2100. It allows us to evaluate the
postponement of mitigation policies.

SP3-LowNTCF has socioeconomic drivers like those of the SSP3

baseline but models the inclusion of policies which seek to limit
emissions of near-term climate forcing species (O3, aerosols, and
their precursor gases, as well methane CH4)…the only NTCF well
mixed GHG.

Source:
[1] Gidden, Matthew J. et al. (2019) Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic
scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of
the century
 3.- How are climate projections generated?

Other types of climate scenarios

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for
Impact and Climate Assessment (IPCC-TGICA) classified climate scenarios into three main types
(IPCC-TGICA, 2007), based on how they are constructed. These are:

• Synthetic scenarios: particular climate elements are changed by a realistic arbitrary amount,
for example, adjustment of global surface temperature by +1, +2, and +3°C from a reference
state, without the use of climate models.
• Analogue scenarios: using a temporal analogue (using past climate record) or a spatial
analogue (e.g. Madrid's climate in 2050 will resemble Marrakech's climate today) to represent
the possible future climate.
• Climate model-based scenarios: use outputs from Global Climate Models (GCM) or Regional
Climate Models (RCM). They usually are constructed by adjusting a baseline climate (typically
based on regional observations of climate over a reference period) by the absolute or
proportional change between the simulated present and future climates.
The IPCC scenarios we have shown and the national climate scenarios that will be discussed later
are all climate model-based scenarios. If you have to deal with global changes in temperature and
climate model-based scenarios (usually handled as combinations of RCP/SSP), the table on the
right may help you.
Changes in global surface temperature, which are assessed
based on multiple lines of evidence, for selected 20-year time
periods and the five illustrative emissions scenarios considered.
Temperature differences relative to the average global surface
temperature of the period 1850–1900 are reported in °C. This
includes the revised assessment of observed historical warming
for the AR5 reference period 1986–2005, which in AR6 is higher
by 0.08 [–0.01 to 0.12] °C than in the AR5 (see footnote 10).
Changes relative to the recent reference period 1995–2014 may
be calculated approximately by subtracting 0.85°C, the best
estimate of the observed warming from 1850–1900 to 1995–
2014.

Source
[1] IPCC: AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis
 3.- How are climate projections generated?
Change in sea level rise compared to 1993-2008 average (mm) [1]

Sea level rise

Global mean sea level has risen about 21–24 centimeters since 1880,
with about a third of that coming in just the last two and a half
decades.

Global warming is causing global mean sea level to rise in different

ways.

• Glaciers and ice sheets worldwide are melting and adding water to
the ocean. Contributor to sea level rise [1]

• The volume of the ocean is expanding as the water warms.

• Decline in the amount of liquid water on land—aquifers, lakes and

reservoirs, rivers, soil moisture

Sources: [1] Climate.gov: Climate Change: Global Sea Level

 3.- How are climate projections generated?
Projections of mean sea level change relative to year 1900 Impacts of tides, storm surge and wave processes
[1] on sea level [3]
Sea level rise
Using the outcomes of climate projections,
different studies evaluate the impact of
climate change on sea level rise globally
(calculating the amount of water that is
melting to oceans, thermal expansion, etc.).
However, this is only part of the story of how
sea level rise will affect coastal areas. Other
processes as subsidence, sedimentation will Climate and non-
modify also the impact of SLR (determined by climate driven
the frequency of events of high total sea level). processes that can
Some of them (as wave run up considering sea influence global,
level rise) can only be studied at local scale. regional, relative and
extreme sea level
(ESL) events along
coasts. SLE stands for
Sources: Sea Level Equivalent
[1] IPCC 2022: 6AR: Working group I – The Physical and reflects the
Science Basis – Summary for Policy Makers increase in GMSL if the
[2] IPCC 2019: Special Report on the Ocean and mentioned ice mass is
Cryosphere in a Changing Climate melted completely
[3] McInnes, K. L. et al. 2009: The Effect of Climate and added to the
Change on Extreme Sea Levels along Victoria’s Coast ocean. [1]
 4.- How to use climate projections?

How to deal with the outcomes of climate projections

By constructing scenarios based on different assumptions, we can quantify

the impact of uncertainties about climate change. This can be uncertainties
about the emissions of GHG, but also uncertainties about how the climate
will react to an increase in GHG (different climate models have different
“climate sensitivity” and we don´t know which one is the right one).

Scenarios are plausible and consistent images of the future, based on our
current knowledge of the climate system and about potential changes in GHG
concentrations (and other drivers).

Scenarios help us to understand climate change impacts and determine key

vulnerabilities. They can also be used to evaluate adaptation strategies.
However, global scenarios used by the climate modelling community may not
be enough for the specific field of our analysis, in that case, it would be
useful to define more detailed scenarios coherent (or not?) with the global
scenarios.
Draft socio-political scenarios elaborated for European aquaculture by CERES
consortium and stakeholders.
Sources: Pinnegar, J. K. et al (2021): Future Socio-Political Scenarios for
Aquatic Resources in Europe: A Common Framework Based on Shared-
Socioeconomic-Pathways (SSPs)
 4.- How to use climate projections?
Different types of models according to their level of detail and resolution, showing connections
between IAMs, ESMs, RCMs and Impact modelling: based on [1] and [2]

How are climate projections used? Complexity of Climate projections

environmental • Temperature
simulations • Wind
As we have commented, climate projections are generated under • etc
different socioeconomic and GHG emissions scenarios. For each Climate forcing:
scenario, a set of climate models is run. This is known as an • Land use and cover
Impact data
ensemble of models. Physical risk
models • Harmonized GHG
assessment and
emissions
adaptation
• GHG concentrations
Their outcomes are used to “force” impact models that allows to • Gridded reactive Gas
Impact on emissions
assess local impacts and deciding the best adaptation options. specific Boundary • Ozone and aerosol
locations and
Currently, the term “impact model” is applied to any model that can sectors
conditions Regional concentration fields
climate
be linked to a climate projection to evaluate it consequences models

(hydrological models, agronomic models, micro-scale simulations,

energy simulation models for buildings, etc.) . These impact models Earth
system
simulate complex dynamics and are able to provide the maximum models
Resolution
spatial and temporal resolution. As an example, modern global and
Integrated assesment
regional climate models simulate the hydrological cycle, but you can models

not take their outcomes to study local processes as floods, Energy and other
mitigation policies
availability of water resources, etc. For this purposes one option is to
calibrate a hydrological model using historical data and “force” it
running it with climate projections.

Sources:
[1] van Vuuren, Detlef P. et al. (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Complexity of
[2] PBL 2014 at Image Sustainable Lyfestyles Project economics
simulations
 4.- How to use climate projections?

The cascade of uncertainty in climate change adaptation

How are climate projections generated and used?
The best way of using climate projections is considering outcomes of several models and
executions under different scenarios. On the right you will appreciate a “cascade” of steps:

- IAMs have generated several socioeconomic (red) and emission (orange) scenarios
- Several Global climate models have been run with this scenarios (yellow) and Regional
climate models have been nested to this GCMs (green)
- Most users access to outcomes of GCM or RCM to “force” impact models (blue), that
also have different parameters and methods.
- This allow to evaluate the local impacts (light purple) with some uncertainty and study
the effect of different adaptation options (dark violet), where a new spread may
appear in the results

The combination of models, scenarios and options to be studied generate an increasing

number of results. Analyzing all them could require to much effort or time. Other times, a
high amount of data or scenarios may not be useful for the final user that may be
overwhelmed and will not be able to handle them (this is called “uncertainty explosion”).
So, most times, we can only study part of the options. In this cases the most interesting is
to try to capture the uncertainty.
Source: Adapted from : Wilby, R.L., & Dessai, S. (2010). Robust
adaptation to climate change.
 4.- How to use climate projections?

How can we handle the concept of uncertainty?

As a result of the different steps and the combination of scenarios, models, (and subsequent impacts
and responses) have uncertainties in time, magnitude, location, etc…. unfortunately, sometimes the
uncertainty is understood as inaccuracies in the models, wrong assumptions, weak scenarios, etc. that
reduce their usability.

And we have to take decision now… in an uncertain future!!! How? What outcomes
should I consider?

Some ideas:
- Uncertainty doesn´t mean errors. We don´t know which scenario, model, etc. is the best one, so we
consider different possible futures.
- Spread of the results is a proxy of the uncertainty. If I run a model with two scenarios obtaining a
quite similar result, the conclusion may be that the system is not highly affected by changes in the
conditions imposed by the scenario. On the other hand, great differences may be interpretated as Source: [1] https://xkcd.com/2110/
high impact of the scenarios in the plausible futures.
- You will listen the idea of “reducing the uncertainty”. We can do that if we improve the models, data, techniques, but it is possible that if we consider
more complex models, approaches, etc. the possible outcomes will differ even more!!
- The approach of combining scenarios, models and approaches is not in line with “reducing the uncertainty”. We want to know the spread or possible
futures, and inform the decision makers to take decisions in an uncertain world.
- Promote robust decision making: A good strategy to plan and design under climate change would be to choose flexible options that will work fine under
multiple scenarios vs optimized solutions that will work very effectively in one scenario but will not be able to cope with climate change.
 4.- How to use climate projections?

What techniques are needed to access and use climate

Diagram of a suggested workflow for climate model and
projections? observation data use (dashed boxes are optional). Source: Based
on [1]
How can we take data from GCM and RCM and make them work? It is not Climate model raw data
Observation data
very easy. Much of the documentation around climate data is tailored Future Past
Impact
specifically for the climate modelling community and is often not accessible Variable selection expertise
to those from a different background without considerable prior reading. Domain selection (area, time slice)
Scenario selection (RCPs, etc)
An ideal workflow for climate data is shown on the left based on the basic Climate Model selection
workflow suggested by https://climate4impact.eu/. The core of this process Regridding (interpolation, etc.)
Climate
(grey boxes) will require programming skills, understanding of climate Dynamical down scaling expertise

dinamics, etc. Signal vs noise assessment Skill assessment

But this is team work! Knowledge of what variables will drive impact and risk Model weighting
Bias correction or statistical
downscaling
is required at the start of the process and, for the final calculations. It is
Indices / indicators calculation
important to ensure that every stage is tailored towards the needs of the Impact
specific application / user. Re-formatting expertise
Assessment of the impact of climate change
The final box usually implies the connection to impact models, but
sometimes other techniques can be applied (expert judgment, qualitative
risk assessment, design considering climate parameters, etc.)

Source: [1] Climate4impact consortium. Generic processing of climate data for use in
impact assessments.
 4.- How to use climate projections?
Form for selecting climate models in
the download page of the CDS for
CMIP5 [1]
What is a model ensemble?

A model ensemble is a collection of alternative climate models, which are run separately for the purpose of
quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions.

A multi-model ensemble is composed of different models performing the same experiment.

You can generate an ensemble of outcomes from different climate models for the same RCP/SSP
picking some of them in the CDS (see figure on the right). This will allow you to compare the
different outcomes generated by a diverse set of models and quantify the uncertainty.

But there are other types of ensembles:

- An initial condition ensemble is another type (whereby members vary only by their initial conditions).
- A perturbed physics ensemble (each run simulates the physical processes in slightly different way) is
Form for selecting ensemble
another type.
members in the download page of
the CDS for CMIP5 [1]
Usually, this is not done and only one run (e.g. r1i1p1) is selected to generate a multi-model
ensemble. However, if you want to explore this approach, you may download different “runs” or
“realizations” for each model. CDS also allows this. The nomenclature in CMIP is as follows:
r = realization
i = initialization
p = physics
Source: [1] Climate Data Store: CMIP5 monthly data on
single levels
 4.- How to use climate projections?

How to understand climate projections outcomes?

The scenarios should not be treated as predictions of what will

happen in the future, since they are based on assumptions on
increases in GHG concentrations (and other drivers).

Plausible does not mean that the scenario is probable!!!

They allow us to infer trends, but never the precise value of a variable
in a specific year, month, etc.

Remember the consideration of 30 years for stablishing a climate

normal, so…

Never take isolated values of the time series for

a given year, month, etc. and always use them
for a probabilistic analysis (evaluation of long
periods).
 4.- How to use climate projections?

How to handle stationarity with non-

stationary models?

Despite models are generated assuming an

evolution of greenhouse gasses
concentrations, and the outcomes usually
reflects accumulative trends, the way of
handling the outcomes is slicing the time
series in periods of 20 or 30 years.

We assume that climate is stationary in each Historical /base Short-term Medium-term Long-term
of them, and we calculate means, indicators, 1975-2005 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2100
return periods, etc. considering this periods
even when the climate in the first part of
them could be slightly different to the final Grouping of data from 3 models for different time horizons and 1 scenarios (e.g. RCP2.6) for
part. climate change analysis using CMIP5 data. Lines represent the original time series generated by
the model. The boxes reflect the mean value that will be considered for each period integrating all
the data.
 4.- How to use climate projections?

(a) Visualisation of
How to handle a grid of points? regular lat/lon data as
point matrix [1]
In previous slides, we have presented a world devided in cells. However, when
you access outcomes from models, you usually will obtain data for a grid of
points.

If no additional information is provided, you may understand coordinates ad

the centroids of cells of the models. In 2 dimensions, you can consider them as
centroids of “tiles”…but take care:

In the poles, your tiles will not be so big for the values at 90
degrees North and South. Don´t “paint” that part of the
tiles. It doesn´t exist in the real world. Some software (b) Visualisation of
usually try to apply the approach of tiles and make errors. regular lat/lon data as a
continuous tiled surface
Always review the poles.

Take care if you are working in the Greenwich meridian. The

first row of data may include data valid for locations
situated on the west of the meridian. Additionally, not all
models number they longitudes from 0 to 360 (some of
them provide data for 0 to 180 and -180 to 0). Don´t get lost
in the Pacific!
Sources:
Note: ERA5 is a reanalysis, but the same concepts usually apply to outcomes [1] ECMWF: ERA5: What is the spatial reference
from GCM and RCM.
 5.- Analysing climate projections uncertainty

What can we learn analysing the uncertainty of climate projections?

There are three main sources of uncertainty in projections of climate:
- due to future emissions (RCP scenario uncertainty), green),
- due to internal climate variability (orange),
- and due to inter-model differences (blue).

Remember: we use the spread of the results as a proxy of the uncertainty.

The plots on the right evaluate how uncertainty changes over time: Internal variability is
roughly constant through time, and the other uncertainties grow with time, but at different
rates. Uncertainty is different according to
- Scale (global, regional, etc.) and location
- Indicator or variable (left vs right)

The main source of uncertainty in Europe for winter precipitation in 2020 is… the internal
variability. However, winter temperature in Europe at the end of the century will depend
greatly on the RCP we will follow.

If you are considering long term horizons, try consider several RCP/SSP,
usually that is the main source of uncertainty. For short-term studies, it is
interesting to study the existing climate variability…and you can save some
time studying few RCP.
Source: IPCC 5AR: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/near-term-climate-change-projections-and-predictability/
 6.- How to choose climate projections data

How to deal with the multiple outcomes of climate

projections

We have different models with different outcomes for a given period

and RCP.

Which one should we take?

Source: IPCC 5AR: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/long-term-climate-change-

projections-commitments-and-irreversibility/

(*) Note:
This and next slides will show outcomes of GCM for helping you understand
the concepts, but the use of RCM is encouraged.
 6.- How to choose climate projections data

Short answer: there is not a better climate model, so it is better to

take several of them. If you pick just one, you may take the wrong
one…even when it is right for the present.

On the left, an integration of the outcomes of 42 models for a given

RCP and period (colour=mean).
Source: IPCC 5AR: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/long-term-climate-change-
projections-commitments-and-irreversibility/
 6.- How to choose climate projections data

Let´s take a closer look to the figure that integrates the 42 models. Points or stippling covers most of the world!!! This indicates
areas where the climate signal (change) is relatively big in comparison with differences between models….and where most
models agrees on the direction of change, so, for this variable we have a relatively large change in climate with high model
agreement.

IPCC 5AR, Figure 12.11 | Multi-model ensemble average of

surface air temperature change (compared to 1986–2005 base
period) for 2046–2065, 2081–2100, 2181–2200 for RCP2.6, 4.5,
6.0 and 8.5. Hatching indicates regions where the multi-model
mean change is less than one standard deviation of internal
variability. Stippling indicates regions where the multi-model
mean change is greater than two standard deviations of internal
variability and where at least 90% of the models agree on the
sign of change (see Box 12.1). The number of CMIP5 models used
is indicated in the upper right corner of each panel.

Source: IPCC 5AR: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/long-term-climate-change-projections-commitments-and-irreversibility/

 6.- How to choose climate projections data

Long answer: you may find a client, partner etc. insisting on selecting one model or a set of
models according to it/their skill or considering different weighs for each of the models.
Unless that´s the specific objective of your project, I don´t recommend you that. My
recommendation is to use multiple models with similar probabilities, and here you have a
selection of arguments:
Nissan et al (2019):
On the use and misuse of climate change projections in international development Source: https://xkcd.com/285
It is often not possible to determine definitively when a model is “good enough” to answer a particular question and when it should be
rejected completely (Di Luca et al., 2015; Knutti et al., 2010) so, for now, subjective judgment is an essential component of this process
(Di Luca et al., 2015; Spiegelhalter & Riesch, 2011).

To facilitate robust decision-making, information is needed about the range of plausible outcomes, not just the best guess given by
climate models, which do not represent the true prediction uncertainty (and were never intended to) (Hallegatte, 2009).

Knutti et al. (2010):

Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models.
Newer models are developed and older ones are phased out in newer intercomparisons and IPCC reports (Meehl et al. 2007a), thus
giving them zero weight.

Given the demonstrated difficulties in defining model performance and the lack of consensus on selecting and weighting models,
methods to combine models should be assessed carefully and compared to multimodel ensemble averages and information derived
from model spread. The overconfidence achieved by improper weighting may well be more damaging than the loss of information by
equal weighting or no aggregation at all.
 6.- How to choose climate projections data

But sometimes we don´t have the time /resources to use

them in our analysis. In that case, USE UNRELATED
MODELS. In the figure:

Models belong to a “family”. In the attached plots,

• Models of the same colour are similar (models with
obvious similarities in code or produced by the same
institution)
• Models of the same branch are similar.

It doesn´t add too much to consider ACCESS1-0 and

ACCESS1-3 models (they are “brothers”)…but adding a
distant “cousin”, as MIROC models, may increase the range
of values. A great combination of models for the future
(RCP8,5) could be…

ACCESS1-0, MIROC-ESM, GFDL-CM3 IPSL-CM5A-LR

Source: Reto Knutti (2013): Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there.
 6.- How to choose climate projections data

As selecting models is a complicated task, you can also take a look to GCMeval: a tool for climate model ensemble evaluation (It
provides a ranking of the skill of each model in relation with the reanalysis. The ranking can be used to eliminate the climate
models with poorest representation of the present climate.
Even if you don´t use them, it is interesting ton understand
what is understood as “Skill”:

1,- The absolute bias of the GCM compared to a reference

data, i.e., the difference between the mean values of the
two data sets.

2,- The spatial correlation of the GCM and reference data.

This metric indicates if the model and observations have a
similar structure in space.

3,- The ratio of the spatial standard deviations of the GCM

and reference data (/), i.e., a comparison between the
spatial variability of the data sets.

4,- The root mean square error (RMSE) of the mean annual
cycle of the GCM compared to the reference data. The RMSE
Source: GCMeval – An interactive tool for evaluation and selection of climate model ensembles represents the averaged magnitude of the differences in the
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880720300194?via%3Dihub annual cycles of the GCM and reference data.
 6.- How to choose climate projections data

Other option is to take the selection of models or weights from studies performed by national authorities, research centers, etc.
for impact assessment reports, generating national scenarios, running RCMs, etc.

A graphical representation of the intermodel distance matrix for CMIP5 and a set of
observed values over the contiguous United States (CONUS), and most of Canada.
Each row and column represents a single climate model (or observation). All scores
are aggregated over seasons (individual seasons are not shown). Each box represents
a pairwise distance, where warm (red) colors indicate a greater distance. Distances
are measured as a fraction of the mean intermodel distance in the CMIP5 ensemble.
[1]
The best-performing combinations for GCM –RCM models according to the
ranking approach for each of the considered variables over the whole area and
the six homogeneous zones in South Italy, respectively. In particular, the three
best-performing models are reported for the mean temperature and
precipitation inter-annual variability and drought intensity and return period of
drought duration, while only the best CM for each season is indicated for
seasonal variability.

Source: [1] USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report. Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I: Appendix B: Model Weighting Strategy
[2] David J. Peres et al. 2020: Evaluation of EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for the Euro-Mediterranean area) historical simulations by high-
quality observational datasets in southern Italy: insights on drought assessment
 7.- National projections

National scenarios
Links to national climate scenarios in various European countries (latest updated Jan. 2019).
National climate scenarios, in addition to the global IPCC climate The timing for translating the global scenarios to national climate scenarios differs in each
scenarios, are developed in order to: country.

• Translate IPCC reports to the national scale: IPCC reports do not

provide results for individual countries.

• Support the national climate adaptation policy, for which regional

or local climate change information is needed.

• Provide a common framework for adaptation planning in different

sectors of society.

• Support impact studies or develop adaptation options and

strategies. With this information questions from various sectors in
society can be answered. Moreover, national climate scenarios can
be used for long-term planning of public and private sector
organisations, to reduce exposure to climate risks and exploit
potential new opportunities.

• Provide more relevant and appealing information on the national

(or regional) scale in order to raise awareness.
 7.- National projections

National scenarios
Climate scenarios developed by European countries differ in
many respects. Although they generally use the global climate
models adopted in the IPCC reports, they also use the results
of large European projects on climate modeling for which the
reduction of the GCM results is done with RCM, e.g.
PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES, EUROCORDEX.

The global and regional climate models that are used, the
reference period, RCPs, time horizons, and climate variables
that are included may depend on the availability and
accessibility of climate model outputs in a country. In
addition, the climate models that the organization(s)
developing the national/regional climate scenarios may run,
the purpose of the climate-scenario development, the areas
relevant to the country/region, and the sectors included may
also influence the how the national climate scenarios. They
are developed. Several of these aspects will be discussed and
illustrated on the next slide.
 7.- National projections

Selection of RCPs in the national scenarios

Now (2022) most of the national scenarios are mainly derived from Cordex models, nested to CMIP5 models.
Although there are 4 RCPs they are not always used for the construction of national/regional climate
scenarios. In almost all cases of the table in the previous slide RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 were used.

• RCP8.5 represents the highest emissions and consequently the largest change in climate (it was often
referred to as business-as-usual or worst-case).
• RCP4.5 is often used to indicate the lower probable climate change. Although RCP2.6 is possible, it is not
considered very likely. Moreover, there are also less climate model runs with RCP2.6.
• In some scenarios RCP2.6 is used to construct the climate scenario with the lowest climate change and
RCP8.5 for the highest climate change, leaving out the others.
• RCP6.0 is not used much in the scenarios as it does not necessarily add much additional information
when showing the range of possible climate change.

In older national climate scenarios, the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios may
still be used.

Even though the emissions path we are following is very similar to the RCP8.5 scenario,
there is increasing discussion that humanity may continue the wrong path for many years to
come. In this article you can read about the topic. This scenario is recommended, but not as
a "business as usual" scenario.
Source: Nature: Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading. Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate warming
as the most likely outcome — more-realistic baselines make for better policy.
 7.- National and regional projections
Sources of climate data
Not only international and national
institutions have developed climate
scenarios. In some countries like
Spain there are also regional
administrations that have generated
their projections. The table compares
these sources of information.
Copernicus Climate Change
Service
Data • Reanalysis
• Observations
• Seasonal Forecasts
• Sectorial indicators
sectoriales: River flow,
Wind Capacity Factor,
etc.
• Long term climate
projections (CMIP5,
CMIP6, Cordex).
New information is being
added.
Visor de Escenarios de Cambio
Climático
• Specific observations
(AEMET stations)
• Grid observations
(Spain011 = Spain02??)
• Grid projections, from the
dynamic regionalizations
generated in the
international initiative
Euro-CORDEX
• Adjusted grid projection
• Point projections, obtained
by applying statistical
regionalization techniques
to data from a series of
locations in the AEMET
network of stations.
Escenarios proyectados de cambio climático en el País Vasco
A climatic atlas (daily data of the period 1971-2015) of high
spatial resolution (1km x 1km) of basic variables (precipitation,
average temperatures, maximum temperature and minimum
temperature):
1) Historical data of meteorological stations (daily basic
variables)
2) High resolution historical climatology of the Basque
Autonomous Community (daily basic variables, 1km x 1km)
Climate change scenarios for the 21st century (2011-2040,
2041-2070, 2071-2100), of high spatial resolution (1km x 1km)
generated for the experiments RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on
simulations carried out with RCMs in the framework of the
Euro-CORDEX project:
3) Euro-CORDEX projection data (daily basic variables, 12km x
12km)
4) Indicators of Euro-CORDEX (12km x 12km)
5) High resolution indicators of the Basque Country (1km x
1km)
 7.- National projections

Sources of climate data

Copernicus Climate Change Service Visor de Escenarios Escenarios
Comparison between sources of de Cambio Climático CC País Vasco
historical data.
Dataset ERA 5 ERA 5 land UERRA AEMET 5km Spain02 Series largas Met. Stations Climatologies

Horizontal 0.25°x0.25° 0,1°x 0,1°(9*9 5*5 km 5*5 km 20*20 km 22 prov. 360 stations 1 km*1km
resolution km. Native) capitals (not all4all)
Spatial Coverage Global Global Europe Spain Spain Spain Basque Basque
Country Country
Variables Many Many, (e.g. Temp, wind, Precipitation Temperature Temperature, Reference Temperature,
soil HR, cloud,etc. and precipitation evapotranspir precipitation
temperature …but focus precipitation ation,
and water) on precipitation,
precipitation temperature

Temporal Hourly data Hourly data Hourly data Daily data Daily data Daily data Daily data Climatologies
resolution/ only only only only (Climatologies
climatologies also available)
Temporal 1979-present 2001-present 1969-present 1951- 1951 to 2015 1893-2005 1971-2015 1971-2015
coverage 2019/03 (version 5)
Data format netCDF / GRIB netCDF / GRIB netCDF / GRIB netCDF netCDF csv csv /ascii csv /ascii
 7.- National projections

Sources of climate data

Comparison between climate projections Copernicus Climate Visor de Escenarios de Escenarios proyectados de cambio climático en el País
Change Service Cambio Climático Vasco

Maximun 11*11 km 11 km *11 km 1 km*1km

resolution for (Cordex)
climate
projections

Variables Many. All those that are Temperature, precipitation, Reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, maximum
originally in CMIP5 wind and relative humidity temperature, minimum temperature, average
(radiation, albedo, etc.) temperatute.
Indicators No Yes. 25 (variables, Not …now
percentiles, indexes,
heatwaves, etc.). Also
“uncertainty”
Procesing Yes. CDS ToolBox based No, but it has preconfigured No,
capacity on Python allows to charts and maps by selecting but it can be seen in a cartographic viewer with non
generate “tailor-made” options (RCP, period of the climate data (administrative limits, vegetation, habitats,
maps, graphs, etc. year, etc.) planning , etc.)
Data format netCDF / GRIB csv / GeoTiff (SIG raster) y csv /ascii
SHP (SIG points)
 8.- Impact models

Connection between models

As we are showing, we can only predict the climate change using models. The
“job” of studding climate change impacts consist mainly of connecting models
and applications.

This would not be so simple and requires some complex steps.

Critical “interface layer” between steps:

- Acquisition, treatment, and interpretation of

Step
results
n
- Bias correction, adjustment, etc.
- Format, resolution, derived variables, etc.
- Incorporation of new (coherent) data
- Selection of outcomes, models, scenarios, etc.
Step Step - Format conversion
n+1 n+1 - Etc…
 8.- Impact models

Public databases generated with climate Workflow to produce climate impact indicators in co-design with the users in water management for the
Copernicus Climate Change Service. Source: [1]
models

In all the previous slides we are raising aspects to be

able to use data from climate projections and connect
them to impact models.

But it is increasingly common to find data generated by

available impact models. For example, the C3S provides
flow projections, renewable generation potential, etc.
To use these data, it is very important to understand
how they have been generated, the models used, the
scenarios considered, etc. In the example shown, you
will be able to see that the steps shown on the left
correspond to those of the uncertainty cascade that we
presented at the beginning of this training block.

You can also search for impact data on open science

platforms (Zenodo, etc.) but it is generally very complex
to find the data of interests, and it is often difficult to
reuse them without very high knowledge on the
subject.

Source: [1] C3S: Operational service for the water sector

 9.- Data processing
Strengths and weaknesses for downscaling approaches

Downscaling
Dynamical downscaling use the GCM outputs as input for RCM (e.g
WRF). Governing physical laws provide a dynamic output.

Statistical downscaling is based on the establishment of statistical

relationship between large-scale predictor fields and the high-
resolution predictands. Model must by trained and it is constrained
by the availability of observations.

Approach for statistical downscaling

Approach for dynamical downscaling

 9.- Data processing
Average annual cycles of rainfall for 1986-2005 for Australia (top left)
and selected regions (North Australia - NA, Rangelands - R, Southern
Slopes – SS, Southern Australia - SA, and East Australia - EA) from
CMIP5 models. Each grey line represents a model simulation, the
Model Bias black line being the ensemble model mean and observations (from
AWAP) shown as a brown line.
Biases are present in both the GCMs and RCMs, but also in other climate models as reanalysis
(and also in gridded observations). We may understand a climate model as a representation
of the real climate system and the mathematical equations that are solved to represent this
system are a simplification of the real world. So, a climate simulation is an imperfect
numerical representation of the meteorology that could have occurred over the globe, based
on the assumption that the simulation of the natural variability is close to the real one. This
means that even if we have observations of greenhouse gases emissions for the past and we
run a climate model using those observations as input, the resulting simulation will give a
response that is different from what is recorded at meteorological stations. Due to the chaotic
nature of the climate system and the climate model's sensitivity to things such as the initial
conditions at the beginning of a simulation, even a "perfect" climate model would not
reproduce the sequence or timing of observed historical weather events, and we can only
hope that the model reproduces the statistical properties (mean, variance, interannual
variability, etc.) of the observed records.

Each model has its own biases. For example, that some models may always project slightly
cooler temperatures on average than the other models, while some may always project more
precipitation than others. Furthermore, the bias of a model is not necessarily the same for all
parts of the world and may vary for different regions, seasons, variables, etc.

Source: [1] Moise, A. et al (2015): Evaluation of CMIP3 and CMIP5 Models over the Australian
Region to Inform Confidence in Projections
 9.- Data processing

Bias correction: Delta or Scaling Method

This method is also known as “perturbation method” because it involve a perturbation of the observed data considering the outcome of the
climate models. One of the simplest way to apply it is to calculate the relative change between the outcomes of the climate model for the
reference period and the future. The change (or delta) is then applied to the observed time-series.

A global delta may be calculated for the whole period, but more refined approaches are usually used: deltas for each month, each quantile of the
distribution, etc. In the figures, a relative delta is calculated as the difference between future and reference values, but relative deltas (calculated
as future / historical) may work better for some variables.
Step 1 for scaling methods: calculation of deltas Step 2 for scaling methods: application of deltas
Climate model Delta is Climate model
Observations calculated as de Observations
difference or
change

Calculated delta
is applied to
observed values

Source: [1] Adapted from Ouranos (2016) A guidebook on climate scenarios: using climate information to guide adaptation research and decisions
 9.- Data processing

Bias correction: Bias correction (stricto sensu)

This method involves an adjustment or correction of the simulated time-series (reference and future periods) using a bias or correction factor
such that differences between the simulated reference period data and the observations are
reduced. The correction factor(s) is first calculated by comparing the simulated reference period and the observed data over the same time
period, such as 1961-1990. The correction is then applied to the entire simulated series.

As shown in the figures, Bias correction can be based on a “mean correction”, but more complex methods can be applied (we will explain one in
the next slides).
Step 1 for bias correction: calculation of the bias Step 2 for bias correction: modification of the entire simulated time-series

Climate model Climate model

Observations Observations

1,- Bias of the model outcomes is

determined comprating them with 2,- Bias is deleted from model
historical observations outcomes

Source: [1] Adapted from Ouranos (2016) A guidebook on climate scenarios: using climate information to guide adaptation research and decisions
 9.- Data processing

Bias correction: working with statistical distributions

As shown in the previous figures, Bias correction and scaling techniques are able to “capture” the climate signal and adjust the global distribution
of values. More complex methods can be applied to analyze the changes in the “shape” of the distributions. This is important, because some of
the most interesting “messages” we can obtain from the models' outcomes are related to changes in the frequency of extremely high events, etc.

Effect of a simple scaling method (corrected future= historical observations + Effect of a simple bias correction method (corrected future= modeled future +
(historical simulations- future simulations)) on the values distribution. (historical simulations-observations)) on the values distribution.

Source: [1] Jet Propulsion Laboratory: ) A guidebook on climate scenarios: using climate information to guide adaptation research and decisions
 9.- Data processing
Step 1 for bias correction: determination of the bias

Bias correction: Quantile mapping

Previous methods adjust the mean of the distributions, but more flexible methods also adjust the variance of the model distribution to better
match the observed variance. A generalization of all these approaches is quantile mapping, which employs a quantile-based transformation of
distributions. A quantile of the present day simulated distribution is replaced by the same quantile of the present-day observed distribution.

But this method may alter the overall climate signal from the model. In the example, the bias correction technique replaces high temperatures in
the model by even higher temperatures. Climate projections usually include a higher percentage of high temperatures as the time passes and we
approach the end of the century. The QM technique can amplify this trend.

Concept behind standard quantile mapping Modification of the trends by standard quantile mapping

Source: [1] Maraun, D. (2016) Bias Correcting Climate Change Simulations - A Critical Review
 9.- Data processing
Graphical illustration of the quantile delta mapping
algorithm

Bias correction: Quantile delta mapping

The quantile delta mapping is a method proposed to preserve model-projected relative changes in quantiles, while at the
same time correcting systematic biases in quantiles of a modeled series with respect to observed values. Let´s see an
example:

1.- A model projected value (i.e., the 99th percentile of model projected values for the 2040-2070 period) , corresponds
to a value of 36,5 ºC

2.- The corresponding modeled quantile in the historical period can be found by entering this value into the historical
inverse CDF. In the example it is 28,5 ºC

3.- For this example, the relative change in quantiles between the historical period and time t is 36,5 / 28,5 = 1,28

4.- The modeled quantile at time t can be bias corrected by applying the inverse CDF estimated from observed values
over the historical period. We look for the 99th percentile in the observed series. This time is 26,5

5.- The bias-corrected future projection at time t is given by applying the relative change multiplicatively to this historical
bias-corrected value: 22,6* 1,28 = 28,9

To preserve absolute rather than relative changes in quantiles, the method can be applied additively rather than
multiplicatively

Source: [1] Cannon, Alex J. et al (2015): Bias Correction of GCM Precipitation by Quantile Mapping: How Well Do
Methods Preserve Changes in Quantiles and Extremes?
 9.- Data processing

Climate indices
Variables involved in the FWI calculation
Indices are specific variables of interest to asset climate impacts. They depend on the problem assessed. This
indicators may replace the use of impact modelling as statistics related to a certain impact (e.g., if heat-stress
morbidity is related to 90th percentile of temperatures, we can use this indicator to evaluate the potential
impact of climate change in this regard). Indices can reflect both mean values (annual mean temperature) vs.
extremes (95th percentile). They can be defined as percentiles, thresholds, etc. Most of them consider only
one variable, but there are combined indixes constructed from several varirables (e.g., Fire Weather index is
calculated from temperature, relative humidity, wind, rain, etc.). Usually, they are aggregated from daily /
hourly data. Some examples:

Temperature: TG, TX, TN, …

Cold extremes: TG10p, FD, CFD, …
Warm extremes: TG90p, SU, CSU, WSDI, …
Precipitation: RR, RR1, …
Dry extremes: SPI3, SPI5, CDD, …
Wet extremes: R95p, R99p, R20mm, RX1d, RX5d, CWD, …
Others:
Wind: FG, FXx, FG6Bft, DDeast, …
Biological: BEDD, GSL, HI, …
Combined: WW, WD, CW, CD, TCI, … Source: [1] Natural Resources Canada. Canadian Forest
Pressure: (PP, NAO, ..), SST (ENSO, PDO, …) Fire Weather Index (FWI) System

There are programming packages for indices calculation (e.g ARCCSS-extremes / climpact2, xclim, etc.)
 9.- Data processing
Number of land & coastal regions (a) and open-ocean regions (b) where each
climatic impact-driver (CID) is projected
to increase or decrease with high confidence (dark shade) or medium
The Climatic Impact-Driver framework confidence (light shade)

The Climatic Impact-Driver (CID) framework is developed in the

IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). CIDs are physical climate
system conditions (e.g., means, events, extremes) that affect an
element of society or ecosystems.

The CID framework includes seven categories, thirty-three

climate factors, and each factor can be assessed using different
evaluation indices for different affected sectors.

The complete list of indexes is listed in IPCC AR6 WG Annex VI:

Climatic Impact-Driver and Extreme Indices

The link between CID and sectoral assets is included in the IPCC
AR6 WG1 Chapter 12.
 9.- Data processing

Generation of typical meteorological years

YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR N

E FMAM J J A S OND E FMAM J J A S OND E FMAM J J A S OND E FMAM J J A S OND

Adjustment
“windows”

E FMAM J J A S OND E FMAM J J A S OND E FMAM J J A S OND E FMAM J J A S OND E FMAM J J A S OND

Consideration of all the data Selection of the most Generation of a synthetic Interpolation between
for each month representative January, year. incoherent data
February, etc. using an
statistical test: e.g.
Finkelstein-Schafer ISO
15927-4

E FMAM J J A S OND
Selection of other variables from the same month and
years. (that may don´t need adjustment e.g.
precipitation)
 9.- Data processing

Definition of return periods:

A return period, also known as a recurrence interval or repeat interval, is an average time or an estimated average time
between events such as earthquakes, floods,[1] landslides,[2] or river discharge flows to occur.

Return period = 1 / p(event)

“Event” should be understood here as the exceedance of a threshold or value. We reserve this analysis to extreme
events. If we define a heat wave as 3 consecutive days over 35ºC, a 4-day event is considered as an exceedance)

As probability of not occurrence = 1 – p (occurrence):

p (exceedance)= 1 /RP

p (no exceedance) 1 – 1/RP

There are two main methodologies for calculating return periods: Block maxima and Peaks over the period.
 9.- Data processing

Definition of return periods:

Extreme events:

- Temporal duration and spatial coverage: From very small scale and short heavy precipitations to large scale and long
duration periods of droughts over wide areas.

- Defined by different metrics:

- High impact events.
- Unprecedented or rare events
- Exceedance of a relatively threshold: E.g 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature.
- Persistence of a weather condition (e.g. consecutive dry days).
- “climatic” extreme (e.g. dry season).
- etc.
 9.- Data processing

Return periods: block maxima/minima approach

- Divide data into equal sized time intervals (blocks) i.e., year

- Determine the maximum value for each interval

- Estimate the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution fitted to block maxima

- Calculate the return value function.

Max year Max year Max year Max year Max year
1 2 3 4 5

Source: [1] Shukla et al (2010): On the proficient use of GEV distribution: a case study of subtropical monsoon region in India
 9.- Data processing

Return periods: exceedance over a threshold

Extremes are defined a exceedances above a certain threshold

A distribution is adjusted to extremes (usually General Pareto distribution)

Extreme values can be extracted from the GPD

1 1 17 1

Source: [1] Gutjahr, O. (2016) Impact of the horizontal resolution on the simulation of extremes in COSMO-CLM
Thank you!

Please, don´t hesitate to contact us:

Jorge Paz: jorge.paz@tecnalia.com