Water and Environment Journal

Promoting Sustainable Solutions

Water and Environment Journal. Print ISSN 1747-6585

Regional analysis of the annual maximum daily rainfall in the

province of Malaga (southern Spain) using the principal
component analysis
A. P. Garcı́a-Marı́n, J. L. Ayuso-Muñoz, E. V. Taguas-Ruiz & J. Estevez
Department of Rural Engineering, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain

Keywords
homogeneous region; probability distribution
function; rainfall; regional frequency analysis
Correspondence
A. P. Garcı́a-Marı́n, Department of Rural
Engineering, University of Cordoba, PO Box
3048, 14080 Cordoba, Spain. Email:
amanda.garcia@uco.es
doi:10.1111/j.1747-6593.2011.00251.x
Abstract
The flood and drought cycles suffered of old by the province of Malaga, the
variability in the distribution of rainfall throughout the province and the
reduced length of the data series make it of interest to carry out a regional
analysis (RA) of the yearly maximum daily precipitation data to obtain
appropriate rainfall quantiles. By taking these maximum precipitations values
from 72 weather stations, and their physiographic parameters latitude and
altitude, four regions with similar rainfall patterns have been determined by
the principal component analysis statistical technique. Then, carrying out an
RA of the yearly maximum daily precipitations for each of the regions
discriminated, it was observed that three of them were homogeneous for the
parameter being studied. In those homogeneous regions that grouped data of
different stations but close rainfall pattern, frequency curves could be calcu-
lated for several return periods by means of the functions that best fit the data
of each region. With these regional curves, it has been possible to obtain more
accurate values of the maximum daily quantiles for each of the stations
analysed than through the conventional local frequency analysis.

Introduction Eastern Andalusia corresponds in many features to the

Precipitation is one of the most difficult meteorological
variables to insert in mathematical or statistical models,
mainly due to its discontinuity and great dispersion. The
long droughts and heavy floods are a proof of this.
However, it is necessary to have reliable predictive models
of this variable in order to forecast floods, to regulate the
flows in rivers or reservoirs and to programme the
increasingly demanded control and use of water.
Andalusia is a semiarid region in southern Spain with
very hot and dry summers. This region presents a great
physiographic diversity throughout its 87 268 km2,
which, in turn, is reflected in the great variety of climate
and plant traits.
Two highly differentiated subregions can be distin-
guished in Andalusia, the Betica and the Penibetica. The
latter is constituted by two lines of mountains, one of
them closer to the Mediterranean coast and the other
more inland, where the most elevated heights in Spain
are reached. From a hydrographic point of view, the
various watersheds of the region are located between the
Atlantic and Mediterranean oceans.
Penibetica mountain region and comprises the provinces
of Malaga, Granada, Almeria and Jaen, occupying an
extension of 42 079 km2. The province of Malaga has a
Mediterranean-type climate. The annual average weather
data of several meteorological stations in this province are
reported in a recent work carried out in Andalusia
(Estévez et al. 2009). Average annual precipitation ranged
from 429 to 816 mm; average annual air temperature
from 15.3 to 18.2 1C; relative humidity from 60.2 to
65%; and annual average wind speed from 0.9 to 2.5 m/
s. In Malaga, flood and drought cycles, partly caused by
the irregularity of the Mediterranean climate, have been
produced for years. The environment in this province has
been intensively exploited, accentuating the risk of
floods. The occupation of the river beds and flood plains
by buildings makes the intense, irregular rainfall occupy
them rapidly causing major material and even human
losses.
In order to be able to correct to a certain extent the
problems stemming from floods and to interpret the rain-
fall patters in this area, it would be necessary to make a

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A. P. Garcı́a-Marı́n et al. Regional analysis of the annual maximum daily rainfall

study of rain in the province of Malaga. On many occa-
sions, in order to solve certain engineering problems, the
maximum intensities of rain for a specific return period
are resorted to. In order to estimate with any reliability
the amount of rain, some series of maximum rain events
have to be available. The records of observation series at
most Spanish weather stations are too short to be able to
extrapolate them with any confidence. Intuitively, it is
obvious that a region that is homogeneous from a clima-
tological, geological and/or geomorphological perspective
can permit the transfer of information between different
watersheds in that region. However, it is advisable to
establish mathematical criteria on which to base the
homogeneity of a region in order to fix its limits with
regard to the study and analysis of the data from the
weather stations to be considered (Garcı́a 2000).
The inconvenience of not using or possessing very
extensive data can be obviated by using relatively recent
techniques, such as that of the regional analysis (RA) of
frequencies (Hosking & Wallis 1997). This approach per-
mits an alleviation of the problem of lack of data in the
time with the abundance of data in the space, this
currently being the generalized trend in the frequency
analysis of extreme events (Álvarez et al. 1999). Different
works back up regionalization as being the technique that
improves the estimations of the quantiles when working
with rain or flows (Sáenz de Ormijana et al. 1991; Hosking
& Wallis 1997; Parida et al. 1998; Yun & Chen 1998; Ferrer
& Mateos 1999; Chiang et al. 2002a, b). Within regionali-
zation, the determination of homogeneous regions is the
most complex step and the continuity of the analysis
depends on its result. Thus, the objective of this work is
the setting up of a RA of the daily maximum rainfall in the
province of Malaga using the principal component analy-
sis technique (PCA) in order to differentiate homoge-
neous regions from a maximum precipitation point of
view.
Methods
The fundamental objective of the regional frequency
analysis is the estimation of extreme events correspond-
ing to different return periods by using probability dis-
confidence at the moment of predicting certain hydro-
logical variables (Nathan & McMahon 1990).
The regional frequency analysis enables the calculation
of data for a certain site of interest using data from
different places other than those of the site in question. If
there are N sites or stations, each one of them with n years
of maximum event records, it can be assumed that N  n
data of the region will give more precise estimates of
quantiles as extreme as QNn.
Following the methodology proposed by Hosking &
Wallis (1997), the RA consists of the following steps.
Analysis of the data available
The measurement of the discordance Di permits the
identification of unusual stations in comparison with the
rest of those composing the study region, for which the
linear moments of variation (LCv), skewness (LCs) and
kurtosis (LCk) of the series of data available in each place
considered were calculated. It is considered that the
vector of linear moments of a station i constitutes a point
in a tridimensional space. A group of stations produces a
cloud of points in this space so that any point located far
from the centre of gravity of the whole point set should be
considered as being discordant. Numerically, the measure
of discordance is given by:
1
Di ¼ Nðui  uÞT A1 ðui  uÞ ð1Þ
3
P
N P
N
where A¼ ðui  uÞðui  uÞ, u ¼ N 1 ui and
i¼1 i¼1
h i
ui ¼ LCvi ; LCsi ; LCki with N the number of stations.
Identification of homogeneous regions
To assess when a region proposed can be considered to be
homogeneous, a homogeneity test should be carried out
to compare the variability of the sample linear moments
of the stations considered with that expected after using
simulation techniques. This uses the weighted variance of
the linear coefficient of variation of each of the stations in
accordance with the statistic:
( )1=2
X
N X
N

tribution functions. V¼ ni ðt ðiÞ  tR Þ2 = ni ð2Þ

i¼1 i¼1
Regionalization is normally used in hydrology to facil-
itate extrapolation from places in which records exist to P
N P
N
this being tR ¼ ni tðiÞ = ni , where N is the number of
places where they are required but are available in small i¼1 i¼1
amounts or not at all. Dividing up the study area into stations, ni that of the records and t(i) the sample linear
homogeneous subregions with a similar hydrological moments.
behaviour, the records can be extrapolated with more A region can be considered to be homogeneous if Ho1,
precision and the equations deduced by taking the char- possibly heterogeneous if 1oHo2 and heterogeneous for
acteristics of the watershed can be used with a greater values of H of over 2 (Hosking & Wallis 1997).

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Regional analysis of the annual maximum daily rainfall
Selection of a frequency distribution
In the regional frequency analysis, the collection of data
existing in all the stations of the region under study has to
be fitted to a probability distribution. There is generally no
one distribution possible and the best one is that which
provides the best estimate of the quantiles. The goodness
of fit judges to what extent the linear coefficients of
skewness and kurtosis of the distribution selected satisfac-
torily fit the regional average of those coefficients to the
data observed. To measure the goodness of fit to a
distribution of three parameters (Hosking & Wallis 1997),
the following statistic must be calculated:
ZDIST ¼ ðtDIST
4  t4R þ B4 Þ=s4
tDIST is the linear skewness coefficient for the distribution
4
proposed; tR4 the linear kurtosis coefficient for the region;
s4 the typical deviation of tR4 ; and B4 a coefficient function
of the number of simulations to improve the fit and of tR4 .
The fit of a specific distribution is considered to be
adequate if the statistic ZDIST is sufficiently close to zero, a
reasonable value for this criterion being a degree of
significance of 90%, which corresponds to an absolute
value of ZDIST below or the same as 1.64.
Fit to a frequency distribution: calculation of
quantiles
The objective is to fit the observations in each station to
the frequency distributions selected, taking into account a
characteristic scale factor for each one of them, i.e. the
flood index (Kite 1977). Thus, the quantiles associated
with certain return periods can be estimated, both for the
region and for each of its stations. This method was
applied for the first time to hydrological data of important
floods (Dalrymple 1960), hence its name. However, it can
be applied to any type of data.
For each of the N stations in the region, the first four
linear moments lj are determined, subsequently dividing
each one by the mean of the series l1 to be able to make a
comparison with no units. With the values obtained, the
regional values are calculated lRj
X
M axis indicates that it takes on high values in the variables
lRðjÞ ¼ lðjÞs ½Ns =L
s¼1
The contribution of each station with Ni observations
on average is weighted in terms of the length of the series,
by means of L.
Occasionally, the homogeneity test of the regional fre-
quency analysis does not permit the discrimination of
homogeneous regions. It is thus necessary to resort to other
statistical techniques. One of them is the PCA. This techni-
524 Water and Environment Journal 25 (2011) 522–531 
A. P. Garcı́a-Marı́n et al.
que is used to determine the factors determining the group-
ing of similar or different individuals (Taguas et al. 2008).
The nucleus of the PCA consists of transforming the
initial quantitative variables into new synthetic noncorre-
lated ones called principal components, in which the
relationships between the variables and between the
individuals are efficiently observed. The PCA aims to
find the best bidimensional representation of the indivi-
duals by the orthogonal projection of the point cloud along
the principal directions or axes, which represent
the variability of the individuals as well as possible (Crivis-
qui 1999). The variables considered for the analysis should
be important characteristics of the phenomenon analysed
ð3Þ so that they permit its modelling (Philippeau 1986).
Let us consider a set of measurements fXi(wj)g of p
variables, fXi g, over a set of n subjects fwj g. These data
allow one to define a dimension matrix p  n, which
corresponds to the initial data matrix. From now on, the
steps to be taken are the following.
Calculation of the correlation matrix
It consists of the calculation of the matrix of variances and
covariances of the initial data matrix, which, as they are
typified, constitute the matrix of the correlation coefficient.
Diagonalization of the correlation matrix. The eigenvalues
of the matrix of correlations, which determine the degree
of goodness of the representation or the percentage of
variance explained by each principal axis, are calculated.
In addition, also calculated are the eigenvectors associated
with each particular value, which determines the orthogo-
nal base defining the principal directions of the lengthen-
ing of the point cloud of the initial matrix.
Calculation of the projections of the individuals
on the principal axes
This is carried out by the linear combination of eigenvec-
tors with the data matrix. The new co-ordinates on the
directions obtained from the eigenvectors permit one to
observe the relationship of each individual to the princi-
pal axes. An individual reaching a high score in a principal
ð4Þ with a strong correlation with that axis. Thus, the similar-
ity between individuals according to the attributes con-
sidered can be observed and the groups distinguished
(Crivisqui 1999).
Calculation of the principal components or
projection of the variables on the principal plane
This consists of the calculation of a new matrix of
coefficients of correlation between the matrix of the new
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A. P. Garcı́a-Marı́n et al. Regional analysis of the annual maximum daily rainfall

Table 1 Identifiers, time period of data and number of complete years of data from each station
Time period
Time period (number Time period (number (number of
Station ID of complete years) Station ID of complete years) Station ID complete years)
Agujero 1 1952–1999 (48) Canillas Aceituno 25 1942–1999 (40) Marbella IL 49 1946–1999 (34)
Alcaucı́n Cjo. 2 1947–1985 (35) Cartajima 26 1943–1999 (48) Mijas Faro 50 1942–1988 (37)
Monjas
Alcaucı́n Forestal 3 1946–1999 (48) Cartama Estación 27 1948–1990 (43) Moclinejo 51 1940–1999 (48)
Alfarnate 4 1941–1999 (47) Casabermeja VP 28 1947–1999 (45) Montejaque CE 52 1942–1998 (47)
Alhaurı́n Grande 5 1962–1999 (38) Casapalma 29 1959–1999 (41) Nerja 53 1947–1999 (44)
Aljaima 6 1946–1999 (48) Casarabonela 30 1955–1999 (45) Ojén 54 1948–1999 (48)
Forestal
Almargen 7 1945–1999 (48) Casares 31 1945–1999 (48) Parauta 55 1947–1991 (36)
Taramal
Almogia Los 8 1949–1999 (48) Chorro Estación 32 1948–1999 (48) Parchite 56 1946–1999 (48)
Llanes
Alora 9 1946–1999 (48) Coı́n 33 1943–1999 (47) Peña 57 1943–1999 (48)
Enamorados
Alozaina 10 1944–1999 (45) Colmenar 34 1943–1999 (46) Periana 58 1939–1998 (45)
Alpandeire 11 1940–1999 (48) Cómpeta 35 1942–1999 (48) Pizarra 59 1946–1998 (48)
Antequera 12 1943–1999 (48) Conde 36 1943–1999 (48) Rincón Victoria 60 1965–1998 (34)
Aguila Guadalhorce
Archidona 13 1936–1999 (30) Contaderas 37 1956–1999 (44) Riogordo 61 1945–1999 (48)
Forestal
Arriate 14 1952–1999 (48) Corchado Central 38 1942–1998 (48) Ronda CE 62 1940–1992 (41)
Benahavis 15 1953–1990 (39) Cuevas Becerro 39 1945–1999 (34) Sierra Yeguas 63 1981–1999 (18)
Benalmádena 16 1964–1999 (30) El Burgo 40 1943–1995 (48) Sierra Caballo 64 1965–1999 (34)
Benamargosa 17 1942–1999 (45) Fte. Piedra Herriza 41 1964–1999 (36) SPAlcántara 65 1946–1999 (47)
Benamocarra 18 1942–1999 (48) Gobantes Vivero 42 1945–1999 (35) Tolox Las Millanas 66 1965–1999 (35)
Benaoján CP 19 1959–1999 (33) Humilladero 43 1946–1998 (47) Torrox 67 1944–1999 (48)
Bobadilla 20 1944–1999 (48) Hundidero Pto. 44 1954–1999 (46) Vegueta Grama 68 1943–1996 (46)
Sapo
Borregos 21 1949–1999 (48) Istán 45 1942–1999 (48) Vélez-Málaga 69 1943–1999 (45)
Buitreras CE 22 1941–1999 (48) Jimena de Lı́bar CE 46 1946–1998 (47) Villanueva de 70 1950–1999 (45)
Tapias
Buitreras Presa 23 1943–1988 (47) Las Mellizas 47 1946–1999 (46) Viñuela 71 1942–1999 (48)
Campillos 24 1945–1999 (48) Málaga Azucarera 48 1982–1999 (17) Yedra (la) 72 1948–1999 (41)

co-ordinates of the individuals on the principal axes and
the initial matrix of data typified. The principal compo-
nents indicate the degree of correlation of the variables
with the axes. If a variable takes on a high component in
an axis, good correlations will exist with the rest of the
variables whose principal components are high for that
axis.
Quality test for the representation of the
variables and of the individuals, in order to
verify the quality of the representation on the
principal plane
This is performed by means of the sum of the first two
principal components of the variable, showing the
squared cosines to be the directors representing each
variable on the principal plane. If values of below 0.60
are reached, the variable is not well represented. The sum
of the values for the first two components is considered to
be another quality index, and values below 0.30 indicate
that the projection of the individual is not adequate and
the individuals could not be compared because the point
had moved away from the plane (Philippeau 1986).
Rainfall data analysed
To carry out this work, data existing in 72 stations in the
province of Malaga and supplied by the Hydrographic
Confederation of the Southern Basin were processed.
The temporal extension of these time precipitation
series is summarized in Table 1. Because in some cases
data gaps were present, not all the stations were used in
this study. Only time series with at least 17 consecutive
years were selected. For each one of the stations, the
series of maximum annual daily rainfall was extracted.
Maximum precipitation time series was analysed by a

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Regional analysis of the annual maximum daily rainfall A. P. Garcı́a-Marı́n et al.

regional frequency analysis. Accuracy of RA results de-
pends on quality and integrity of precipitation data used.
For this reason, the quality control procedure defined as
‘Range Test’ (Meek & Hatfield 1994; Shafer et al. 2000)
was applied to the rainfall dataset. This validation method
is a prerequisite for this analysis, rejecting any observa-
tion that occurs outside the allowable range.
Results and discussion
After obtaining the series of yearly maximum daily rain-
fall for each of the 72 weather stations in the province of
Malaga, the data available were analysed and the discor-
dance was calculated. The critical value for this statistic
when the number of stations is over 15 is 3.00 (Hosking &
Wallis 1997). Only three stations exceeded this value and,
therefore, were removed from the analysis. They were
stations 10, 39 and 63, with discordance values of 3.23,
10.53 and 11.11, respectively.
To verify if the remaining 69 stations formed a homo-
geneous region with regard to their maximum daily
precipitations, the statistic H was calculated giving a value
of 3.85, therefore indicating that they constituted a
heterogeneous region.
The PCA is therefore resorted to in order to be able to
discriminate different subregions within the province that
have common characteristics and that can perform homo-
geneously from the point of view of their maximum daily
rainfall. Hosking & Wallis (1997) advise forming homo-
geneous regions by considering the characteristics of
the site, such as localization, height and rainfall, etc.
Following these recommendations, each of the stations

Table 2 Parameters considered for each station

ID XUTM (  103 m) YUTM (  103 m) Z (m) P100 (mm) ID XUTM (  103 m) YUTM (  103 m) Z (m) P100 (mm)
1 372 4.070 100 186.18 37 376 4.078 630 145.94
2 396 4.080 220 131.19 38 284 4.041 98 147.14
3 399 4.084 508 224.69 39 317 4.083 735 161.41
4 387 4.095 880 165.46 40 326 4.073 591 155.86
5 348 4.054 400 197.20 41 346 4.111 425 99.12
6 350 4.066 50 151.62 42 340 4.089 360 130.68
7 320 4.097 510 127.16 43 335 4.109 450 87.06
8 362 4.076 130 168.09 44 339 4.079 870 177.26
9 348 4.076 110 157.01 45 325 4.050 310 204.70
10 334 4.066 386 214.92 46 296 4.059 429 173.34
11 303 4.056 695 189.23 47 346 4.081 140 196.95
12 361 4.099 502 97.61 48 368 4.058 10 145.83
13 376 4.106 700 84.58 49 331 4.041 20 148.27
14 309 4.074 7 116.83 50 353 4.040 20 160.88
15 316 4.043 190 180.65 51 388 4.070 451 112.73
16 359 4.051 240 157.53 52 299 4.069 530 113.51
17 393 4.077 96 162.34 53 421 4.067 21 107.10
18 396 4.072 126 141.51 54 333 4.048 335 206.92
19 296 4.062 920 265.77 55 318 4.064 1190 158.95
20 346 4.100 384 126.45 56 311 4.076 755 125.94
21 356 4.105 410 92.37 57 366 4.102 470 114.98
22 286 4.046 212 176.50 58 393 4.087 547 152.35
23 291 4.050 334 180.04 59 347 4.070 85 186.30
24 334 4.101 460 148.52 60 384 4.064 5 161.58
25 403 4.081 645 124.40 61 384 4.086 400 143.50
26 307 4.057 846 181.41 62 306 4.068 660 113.97
27 356 4.066 35 160.59 63 335 4.109 450 360.53
28 370 4.081 695 140.24 64 338 4.114 440 149.60
29 380 4.089 880 127.79 65 321 4.038 25 170.85
30 335 4.072 494 216.40 66 333 4.062 200 175.88
31 296 4.035 415 228.77 67 415 4.068 150 120.66
32 343 4.086 225 149.64 68 423 4.075 410 150.33
33 342 4.058 209 202.72 69 401 4.071 165 127.78
34 381 4.084 680 164.28 70 381 4.116 661 99.27
35 413 4.076 636 156.94 71 398 4.079 130 127.35
36 339 4.089 325 151.19 72 369 4.094 780 135.89

Variables used: station (ID), longitude (XUTM), latitude (YUTM), altitude (Z) and maximum daily rainfall for a return period of 100 years (P100).

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A. P. Garcı́a-Marı́n et al. Regional analysis of the annual maximum daily rainfall

studied was characterized by four representative para- The results associated with the eigenvalues (Table 3)
meters: indicate that the principal plane is formed by the axes 1
 Longitude: the UTM co-ordinate X can be associated and 2 and explain 71.5% of the total variance.
with the provenance of the rain fronts. As can be deduced from the values of the principal
 Latitude: the UTM co-ordinate Y represented the proxi- components shown in Table 4, the variables most corre-
mity of the sea and its regulatory effect on rainfall. lated with the first axis are the co-ordinates YUTM and
 Altitude: the co-ordinate Z supplies the height over sea the daily maximum rainfall for a return period of 100
level and gives an idea of the orography. years. As it can be observed in Table 4, the distance to
 Maximum daily rainfall for a return period of 100 years the sea (determined by the co-ordinate Y) showed a
(P100). Calculated after fitting the series of maximum daily negative correlation with the maximum daily rainfall
data of each station to the Gumbel distribution function, for a return period of 100 years, which indicates drier
this permits taking into account the precipitation at the rainfall regimes in inside areas. The co-ordinate XUTM
moment of grouping the stations and it is a representative also has a good correlation with these variables, which
parameter of the long-term rainfall behaviour. illustrate a bigger arid degree towards the east. In axis 2,
The values of these parameters (XUTM, YUTM, Z and the variable with the best correlation is the altitude with
P100) for each station are as follows (Table 2). The follow- a notable difference with respect to the rest of the
ing Tables 3–7 show the results obtained in the PCA. variables, which appear as being poorly correlated with
this axis. The impact of the altitude is difficult to explain
Table 3 Eigenvalues and percentage of variance of each axis
because the mountain ranges show different aspects
that may influence notably the behaviour of rainfall
Axis Eigenvalues Variance (%) Cumulated variance (%)
fronts. Authors as Catalina & Fernández (2002) also
1 1.6886 0.4221 0.42214
2 1.1728 0.2932 0.71534 found that the precipitation gradient in Malaga declines
3 0.7043 0.1761 0.89140 from west to east as this is the direction of most of the
4 0.4344 0.1086 1 fronts originating the cyclonal type rainfall, which en-
ters conditioned by the distribution in parallel of the
Table 4 Principal components massif, discharging the rain as these mountains appear
Axis 1 Axis 2 Axis 3 Axis 4
in its trajectory. Therefore, different groups of stations
XUTM (m) 0.662  0.473 0.508  0.278 can be formed as a function of the co-ordinates. This
YUTM (m) 0.828 0.286 0.131 0.473 allowed to identify the rainfall regime and the altitude
Z (m) 0.310 0.886 0.019  0.341 effect obtained from each one of them on this principal
P  0.685 0.286 0.655 0.132
plane (Table 5). Taguas et al. (2008) applied a similar
The variables with the best correlation with first and second axes are approach to identify close flow patterns in different
indicated in bold. catchments in an area that included the province of

Table 5 Matrix of coordinates in the two principal axes

ID Axis 1 Axis 2 ID Axis 1 Axis 2 ID Axis 1 Axis 2 ID Axis 1 Axis 2
1  0.45  1.02 19  2.06 2.73 37 0.81 0.36 55  0.14 2.63
2 0.99  1.17 20 1.11 0.17 38  2.18  0.58 56 0.16 1.38
3 0.27 0.28 21 1.85  0.01 39 0.03 1.56 57 1.68 0.14
4 1.49 1.31 22  2.25  0.03 40  0.23 0.85 58 1.20 0.06
5  1.18 0.02 23  1.99 0.37 41 1.84 0.27 59  0.83  0.77
6  0.51  1.17 24 0.78 0.70 42 0.61 0.06 60  0.26  1.70
7 0.73 0.83 25 1.57  0.02 43 1.78 0.38 61 1.01  0.34
8  0.15  0.85 26  1.09 1.79 44 0.14 1.73 62  0.11 0.98
9  0.25  0.81 27  0.55  1.24 45  1.82 0.02 63  1.54 2.05
10  1.24 0.41 28 0.94 0.62 46  1.46 0.67 64 1.24 0.77
11  1.43 1.43 29 1.67 1.10 47  0.57  0.38 65  2.10  1.14
12 1.74 0.15 30  0.95 0.81 48  0.47  1.66 66  1.07  0.43
13 2.53 0.56 31  2.93 0.64 49  1.58  1.37 67 0.93  1.83
14  0.46  0.89 34 0.19  0.31 50  1.46  1.59 68 1.13  0.88
15  1.97  0.47 33  1.37  0.40 51 0.96  0.63 69 0.76  1.54
16  0.80  0.88 34 0.91 0.65 52  0.26 0.69 70 2.70 0.61
17 0.35  1.36 35 1.15  0.03 53 1.04  2.40 71 0.94  1.51
18 0.51  1.50 36 0.29 0.08 54  1.78  0.03 72 1.47 1.04

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Regional analysis of the annual maximum daily rainfall A. P. Garcı́a-Marı́n et al.

Fig. 1. Plotting of the stations on the principal axes.

Table 6 Quality of representation of the stations

ID Quality ID Quality ID Quality ID Quality ID Quality ID Quality
1 0.61 13 0.95 25 0.68 37 0.60 49 0.86 61 0.86
2 0.95 14 0.23 26 0.84 38 0.66 50 0.93 62 0.27
3 0.03 15 0.95 127 0.94 39 0.94 51 0.59 63 0.26
4 0.75 16 0.76 28 0.74 40 0.78 52 0.16 64 0.49
5 0.72 17 0.74 29 0.84 41 0.66 53 0.94 65 0.94
6 0.91 18 0.91 30 0.70 42 0.36 54 0.91 66 0.96
7 0.46 19 0.92 31 0.98 43 0.56 55 0.73 67 0.87
8 0.66 20 0.58 32 0.17 44 0.90 56 0.56 68 0.50
9 0.65 21 0.74 33 0.87 45 0.98 57 0.91 69 0.92
10 0.77 22 0.84 34 0.61 46 0.81 58 0.67 70 0.98
11 0.91 23 0.86 35 0.35 47 0.25 59 0.70 71 0.97
12 0.84 24 0.51 36 0.13 48 1.00 60 0.91 72 0.96

Malaga where they also evaluated notable differences of Table 7 Stations of each region
rainfall values. Region Quadrant Stations (ID)
Figure 1 is highly useful when delimiting these stations. PCA1 11 4, 7, 12, 13, 20, 24, 28, 29, 34, 37, 39, 41, 42, 43,
Most of them are grouped in the first and the third quad- 44, 56, 57, 58, 64, 70, 72
rants; whereas, in the two remaining ones there are fewer PCA2 21 5, 10, 11, 19, 23, 26, 30, 31, 40, 45, 46, 55
stations and they are more disperse. According to the para- PCA3 31 1, 6, 8, 9, 15, 16, 22, 27, 33, 38, 48, 49, 50, 54, 59,
meters most correlated with the principal axes, four possible 60, 65, 66
PCA4 41 2, 17, 18, 21, 25, 35, 51, 53, 61, 67, 68, 69, 71
regions can be differentiated, one in each quadrant of
the principal plane represented. However, the quality tests PCA, principal component analysis.
(Table 6) indicate that eight stations (ID in bold in the table)
are not well represented because they only reach quality On comparing the results obtained by the PCA for the
indexes of below 0.30. Therefore, the four regions are formation of regions, with the real characteristics of the
integrated as a whole by 64 stations. The stations belonging stations of each of them, a high concordance was ob-
to each of the differentiated regions appear in Table 7. served (Fig. 2):

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A. P. Garcı́a-Marı́n et al.
PCA1: most of the stations are situated in the northern
area of the province of Malaga, with elevated heights the
same as maximum rainfall.
PCA2: all the stations were also at elevated heights, in
the south-western part of the province and located in rain
shadow, which means that their rainfall records were not
excessive.
PCA3: composed of stations located in the south of the
province, close to the sea and with little rainfall.
PCA4: this region practically coincides with the area
known as the Axarquia with scant precipitations, because
this part of the province is preferentially affected by the
fronts coming from Levante, which usually bring less rain.
The following step is to determine which group of the
four established form regions can be considered to be
homogeneous with regard to their precipitations. Table 8
shows the values of the H statistic obtained for each of the
regions considered.
Water and Environment Journal 25 (2011) 522–531 
c 2011 The Authors. Water and Environment Journal 
Regional analysis of the annual maximum daily rainfall
The regions PCA1, PCA3 and PCA4 are homogeneous.
In the first of them, station 39 had to be removed from the
analysis as it was discordant. Region PCA2 gave a value of
H of above 2, so that it was heterogeneous, and, therefore,
it was not possible to carry out a valid RA with it.
The regional frequency analysis was, thus, continued
for each of the three homogeneous regions obtained. In
each of them, the maximum precipitation data had to be
fitted to a probability distribution function. Among the
distribution functions, most often used to work with
hydrological data are the following:
 generalized logistics (LOGGEN);
 general extreme value distribution (GEV);
 generalized normal distribution (NORGEN);
 Pearson type III (PT3); and
 generalized Pareto (PARGEN).
Table 9 shows the values of the statistic ZDIST for each
distribution function and for each study region. For
Fig. 2. Regions obtained in the principal compo-
nent analysis.
c 2011 CIWEM. 529
Regional analysis of the annual maximum daily rainfall A. P. Garcı́a-Marı́n et al.

Table 8 Results of the homogeneity test Table 11 Heights of precipitation (mm) for different stations

Region Number of stations Critical Di Disc. Sta. (ID) H T (years)

Station
PCA1 21 3.00 39 0.72 Region (ID) Function 2 5 10 25 50 100
PCA2 12 2.77 – 3.21
PCA1 4 GEV 69.18 96.74 117.16 145.75 169.16 194.45
PCA3 18 3.00 – 0.14
NORGEN 69.00 97.49 118.12 145.99 167.94 190.87
PCA4 13 2.87 –  0.34
PCA3 1 GEV 57.78 82.95 101.36 126.82 147.44 169.50
NORGEN 57.64 83.57 102.12 126.94 146.36 166.51
PCA4 2 GEV 62.60 83.93 98.01 115.62 128.65 141.47
NORGEN 62.60 84.06 98.01 115.42 128.18 140.87
Table 9 Values of ZDIST PEARSON 62.53 84.52 98.48 115.29 127.25 138.75

Function PCA1 PCA3 PCA4

LOGGEN 1.67 2.65 3.56
GEV  0.25 0.62 0.72
NORGEN  1.26 0.19 0.44 ences in rainfall regimes in the regions identified through
PT3  3.04  1.69  0.44 the PCA.
PARGEN  5.07  4.27  5.45

Functions: generalized logistic distribution (LOGGEN), general extreme Conclusions

value distribution (GEV), generalized normal distribution (NORGEN),
Pearson type III distribution (PT3) and generalized Pareto distribution The RA of maximum daily rainfall in the province of
(PARGEN) Malaga has enabled the establishment of the following
conclusions:
(1) The 72 stations considered do not form a homo-
Table 10 Regional frequency curves
geneous region as far as maximum daily rainfall is
concerned.
T (years)
(2) After using the PCA technique to form homogeneous
2 5 10 25 50 100 subregions, four regions were discriminated, each of them
PCA1 composed of a set of stations with common physiographic
GEV 0.902 1.258 1.526 1.905 2.220 2.564 characteristics and grouped in specific areas of the pro-
NORGEN 0.899 1.268 1.540 1.910 2.204 2.514
vince of Malaga. Three of these four regions, PCA1, PCA3
PCA3
GEV 0.901 1.291 1.575 1.967 2.284 2.622
and PCA4, corresponding to the northern, south-western
NORGEN 0.899 1.300 1.587 1.969 2.267 2.577 and south-eastern areas, respectively, turned out to be
PCA4 homogeneous from a daily maximum rainfall perspective.
GEV 0.942 1.263 1.475 1.740 1.936 2.129 (3) The calculation of the heights of the maximum daily
NORGEN 0.942 1.265 1.475 1.737 1.929 2.120 precipitations for each of the stations in the three regions
PEARSON 0.941 1.272 1.482 1.735 1.915 2.088 and for diverse return periods, by means of RA, has
permitted the selection of the most appropriate distribu-
tion functions to which to fit the rain data and calculate
regions PCA1 and PCA3, the GEV and the NORGEN are the quantiles for different return periods.
those providing the best fits because they present values (4) The PCA is thus a good technique to obtain rainfall
of the statistic which, in an absolute value, are below homogeneous regions, permitting the later use of regional
1.64. For region PCA4, the Pearson type III function also frequency analysis in areas with short-length rainfall data
provides a good fit. series.
Table 10 shows the values of the regional frequency
curves for each of the distribution functions selected and Acknowledgement
for each region. These values are characteristic of each
region and permit the calculation for each of the stations The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the
composing them of the values of the quantiles of daily Andalusian project P06-AGR-02349 (Influencia de la
maximum precipitation corresponding to diverse return agricultura de conservación sobre el ciclo del carbono: el
periods (T), only taking into account the flood index as a suelo como fuente o sumidero de Carbono).
characteristic factor of each station.
Table 11 shows as an example of the quantiles To submit a comment on this article please go to http://
calculated for one of the stations of each homogeneous mc.manuscriptcentral.com/wej. For further information please see the
region determined, which illustrate the observed differ- Author Guidelines at wileyonlinelibrary.com

530 Water and Environment Journal 25 (2011) 522–531 

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A. P. Garcı́a-Marı́n et al. Regional analysis of the annual maximum daily rainfall

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