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Supplemental Table 1. Global burden of disease, injuries and risk factors 2010 study region and country list
Super Region Region Country

East Asia/Pacific
Asia, East China
Korea, Democratic People’s Republic of
Taiwan
Asia, Southeast Cambodia
Indonesia
Lao People’s Democratic Republic
Malaysia
Maldives
Myanmar
Philippines
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Timor-Leste
Viet Nam
Oceania Fiji
Kiribati
Marshall Islands
Micronesia, Federated States of
Papua New Guinea
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tonga
Vanuatu
Eastern Europe/Central Asia
Asia, Central Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Mongolia
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Albania
Europe, Central Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Macedonia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of
Montenegro
Poland
Romania
Serbia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Europe, Eastern Belarus
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Moldova
Russian Federation

(continued on next page)

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Supplemental Table 1. Continued

Super Region Region Country

Ukraine
High Income
Asia Pacific, High Income Brunei Darussalam
Japan
Korea, Republic of
Singapore
Australasia Australia
New Zealand
Europe, Western Andorra
Austria
Belgium
Cyprus
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Latin America, Southern Argentina
Chile
Uruguay
North America, High Income Canada
United States
Latin America/Caribbean
Caribbean Antigua and Barbuda
Bahamas
Barbados
Belize
Cuba
Dominica
Dominican Republic
Grenada
Guyana
Haiti
Jamaica
Saint Lucia
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Suriname
Trinidad and Tobago
Latin America, Andean Bolivia
Ecuador

(continued on next page)

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Supplemental Table 1. Continued

Super Region Region Country

Peru
Latin America, Central Colombia
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Venezuela
Latin America, Tropical Brazil
Paraguay

North Africa/Middle East

North Africa/Middle East Algeria
Bahrain
Egypt
Iran, Islamic Republic of
Iraq
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
Morocco
Occupied Palestinian Territory
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syrian Arab Republic
Tunisia
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
South Asia
Asia, South Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Bhutan
India
Nepal
Pakistan
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa, Central Angola
Central African Republic
Congo
Congo, the Democratic Republic of the
Equatorial Guinea
Gabon
Sub-Saharan Africa, East Burundi
Comoros
Djibouti
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Kenya

(continued on next page)

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Supplemental Table 1. Continued

Super Region Region Country

Madagascar
Malawi
Mauritius
Mozambique
Rwanda
Seychelles
Somalia
Sudan
Tanzania, United Republic of
Uganda
Zambia
Sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Botswana
Lesotho
Namibia
South Africa
Swaziland
Zimbabwe
Sub-Saharan Africa, West Benin
Burkina Faso
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Chad
Cote d’Ivoire
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Liberia
Mali
Mauritania
Niger
Nigeria
Sao Tome and Principe
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Togo
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Supplemental Table 2. Proportions (%) of specific International Classification of Diseases (ICD) coded deaths not defined as
underlying causes of death re-allocated to ischemic heart disease (IHD) as the cause of death, and resulting increase (%) in IHD
deaths, the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study
Percent increase in IHD death Percent proportion of
Disease/ICD code pertinent to undefined due to assignment of each each of garbage codes
(garbage) code garbage code ( 21.5% total increase) assigned to IHD

Some ill-defined from R00-R99 3.4% 13.8%

Hypertension 3.1% 47.2%
R54: Senility 2.9% 20.6%
All cardiac conduction disorders 2.4% 89.9%
Atherosclerosis 2.4% 40.0%
All ill-def. descriptions of heart disease 1.8% 47.3%
DIC, Cardiac arrest ,Acute respiratory failure and 1.7% 25.6%
Coma
I50: Heart failure 1.5% 76.9%
J81: Pulmonary oedema 0.5% 76.3%
All encephalopathy and Cerebral oedema 0.5% 66.8%
Embolism & thrombosis 0.3% 40.1%
Cardiogenic shock and other Shock 0.3% 55.2%
All disorders of electrolyte & fluid balance 0.2% 13.0%
I99:Oth. & unspec. disorders of circulatory system 0.2% 48.2%
Ill-defined (result of age and sex restriction) 0.1% 13.6%
Ill-defined: from M09-M99 0.1% 19.0%
Pneumonitis 0.1% 2.7%
Ill-defined: from N39.3-N97.8 0.1% 21.9%
Renal failure 0.1% 0.8%
Fever ,Malasia, Febrile and convulsions unknown <0.5% 8.2%
origin
Ill-defined: from F32-F99 <0.5% 16.3%
Cardiac sign and symptom <0.5% 70.7%
Ill-defined: from D10-D36.9 <0.5% 16.1%
Ill-defined: from G43-G58.9 <0.5% 14.6%
Different Paralytic syndrome and palsy syndrome <0.5% 2.2%
Ill-defined: from L01-L98.9 <0.5% 15.9%
Unspecified liver disease <0.5% 0.9%
Ill-defined: from H00-H99 <0.5% 14.4%
Ill-defined: from K00-k14.9 <0.5% 17.9%
Ill-defined: from A00-B99 <0.5% 14.2%
Ill-defined: from Q10-Q84.9 <0.5% 4.7%
Ill-defined: from J30-J35.9 <0.5% 11.2%
Undefined ICD code <0.5% 31.6%
All unspecified parasitic diseases <0.5% 0.1%
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Supplemental Table 3. Country covariates definition and source used in ensemble model for estimating IHD
# Topic Covariate Primary Data Source Estimation Approach

1 Alcohol Alcohol (liters per capita) FAO Food Balance Sheets, World Drink Trends Space-time/GPR
2 Animal Fat Animal Fats (kcal per capita) FAO Food Balance Sheets Space-time/GPR
3 BMI Mean BMI Systematic analysis2 Bayesian hierarchical model
4 Cholesterol Cholesterol (total, mean per capita) Systematic analysis3 Bayesian hierarchical model
5 Cigarettes Cumulative number of cigarettes smoked in past USDA Space-time/GPR
5 Years (per capita)
6 Diabetes Diabetes Age-Standardized Prevalence (% of Systematic analysis4 Bayesian hierarchical model
population)
7 Disasters Disaster Deaths (rate per 1000) International Disaster Database, Centre for Raw variable
Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters
8 Education Education (years per capita) Censuses and nationally representative surveys5 Space-time/GPR
9 Fruit Fruits (kcal per capita) FAO Food Balance Sheets Space-time/GPR
10 Grains Whole Grains (kcal per capita) FAO Food Balance Sheets Space-time/GPR
11 Health System Health System Access 2 (unitless) Composite of [ANC1/4, SBA and IFD, Tetanus, Principal component analysis
DTP3, Measles]
12 LDI Lag Distributed Income (per Capita) ($I) Penn World Tables, World Development Indica- Cross imputed growth rates8
tors, Statistics on World Population, World
Economic Outlook, National Accounts Main
Aggregates
13 Legumes and Pulses Pulses & Legumes (kcal per capita) FAO Food Balance Sheets Space-time/GPR
14 Milk Milk (kcal per capita) FAO Food Balance Sheets Space-time/GPR
15 Nuts and Seeds Nuts & Seeds (kcal per capita) FAO Food Balance Sheets Space-time/GPR
16 Population Elevation Elevation Over 1500m (% of population) USGS, Earth Resources Observation and Science Raw variable
(EROS) Center, Gridded Population of the World 3
(Columbia University)
17 PUFA PUFA Omega 3 - Seafood (kcal per capita) FAO Food Balance Sheets Space-time/GPR

GLOBAL HEART, VOL. 7, NO. 4, 2012

18 PUFA6 PUFA Omega 6 - Vegetable Oils (kcal per capita) FAO Food Balance Sheets Space-time/GPR
19 Red Meat Red Meat (kcal per capita) FAO Food Balance Sheets Space-time/GPR
20 SBP Systolic Blood Pressure (mmHg) Systematic analysis of survey data Bayesian hierarchical model16

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21 Smoking Smoking Prevalence (% of population) Systematic analysis of survey and census data Space-time/GPR
22 Vegetables Vegetables (kcal per capita) FAO Food Balance Sheets Space-time/GPR
23 War War Deaths (rate per 1000) Uppsala Conflict Data Program-Armed Conflict Transformed crude death rate from the conflict
Database, International Institute for Strategic to adjusted 45q15 and 5q0. 45q15 and 5q0 are
Studies then used to generate age-specific mortality rate
with shocks.
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Supplemental Table 4. Out-of-sample performance for the ensemble model

Root Mean Squared Proportion with Correct
Error Trend Coverage (%)

Model Name Model Type In-Sample Test 2 In-Sample Test 2 In-Sample Test 2

Female Ensemble 0.3539 0.6507 0.6743 0.6064 0.9957 0.9248

Female Top Individual Model 0.3495 0.6583 0.6749 0.6048 0.9952 0.9088
Male Ensemble 0.3170 0.5807 0.6804 0.6178 0.9954 0.8990
Male Top Individual Model 0.3090 0.5855 0.6858 0.6156 0.9948 0.8796

SUPPLEMENTAL BOX 1. Model specifications and assumptions in estimating morbidity of myocardial MI, AP,
and heart failure.

Myocardial infarction:

d Model case definition: Any MI (by definition in text) first ever or repeated, fatal or non-fatal diagnosed by
troponin test
d Data: incidence, and 28-day case fatality converted to excess morality rate
d Remission rate was set to 12 (11-13) (Acute MI takes 28 days By definition)
d Age knots at ages 0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, and 100
d Covariates:
ˇ
Incidence: Non- fatal MI, first ever MI, troponin method, and IHD standardized mortality rate (country
level covariate)
ˇ
Excess mortality: IHD standardized mortality rate (country level covariate)
d We assumed incidence of MI is zero under age 1

Stable Angina:

d Model case definition: Stable Angina (defined in the text): AP by a Rose Questionnaire (definite positive)
d Data: prevalence, incidence, and standardized mortality ratio (SMR) converted to relative risk of mortality
d Remission: zero
d Incidence: increasing by age
d Age knots: 0, 10, 25, 40, 55, 65, 75, and 100
d Incidence was set to zero under age 1
d Covariates:
ˇ
Incidence: IHD standardized mortality rate
ˇ
Prevalence: probable Angina (by probable Rose Q or other questionnaires), physician diagnosed, self-
report, WHS (world health survey) data, and IHD standardized mortality rate (country level covariate)

Heart failure:

d Model case definition: a case of heart failure with functional severity of >¼II by NYHA classification
d Data: prevalence, incidence, standardized mortality ratio (SMR) converted to relative risk of mortality, and
excess mortality
d Remission: zero
d Incidence: increasing by age (after age 5)
d Excess mortality: increasing by age (after age 5)
d Age knots: 0, 5, 20, 35, 50, 60, 70, 80, and 100
d Incidence and prevalence levels were set to zero under age 1
d Covariates:
ˇ
Incidence: self-report, cardiomyopathy standardized mortality rate (country level), average body mass index
(country level), and health system access (country level)
ˇ
Prevalence: self-report, MEPS origin data, hospital discharge rate, cardiomyopathy standardized mortality
rate (country level), and average body mass index (country level).
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SUPPLEMENTAL BOX 2. Estimating proportion of reported MI death in all IHD death.

First we extracted MI/IHD death from cause of death database. We selected studies that reported the death in
ICD10 and ICD9 detailed format. We modeled MI/IHD ratio in a mixed effect model including sex, age
(dummies) and logarithm of country income as fixed effect and region and country as random effects (country
was nested in the region): MI/IHD ratio ¼ Constant þ sexi þ agei þ B*ln_GDPi þ regionr þ errorc. The pre-
dicted MI/IHD ratio was calculated by the equation except the value of country random effect set to zero. The
region effect of regions without data was set to average of regions in each super_region. The average of developing
regions was used for south Asia region effect. Figure2-1 shows the estimated MI/IHD ratio for different regions.
Fig. Estimated MI/IHD ratio for countries in different regions.
web 4C=FPO
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Supplemental Figure 1. IHD death before and after CODCorrect process.

web 4C=FPO

Supplemental Figure 2. Random and fixed effect parameter values in empirical prior estimation for modeling MI incidence.
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web 4C=FPO

Supplemental Figure 3. Incidence of MI in western Europe, Men 2010.

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Supplemental Figure 4. Random and fixed effect parameter values in empirical prior estimation for modeling MI excess mortality.
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web 4C=FPO

Supplemental Figure 5. Random and fixed effect parameter values in empirical prior estimation for modeling Stable Angina
prevalence.
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web 4C=FPO

Supplemental Figure 6. . Prevalence of stable angina in men 2010.

web 4C=FPO

Supplemental Figure 7. Etiologic fraction of ischemic heart disease in heart failure.