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Key Result Metrics: i) Total Revenue of $267m (+9.7% vs. pcp) technically just missed guidance, Ross Barrows
which was for “full year revenue growth in excess of 10%”. Wealth Management was up +6% ross.barrows@wilsonsadvisory.com.au
while Funds Administration was up +17% vs. pcp; ii) Corporate Costs of $39m grew +6%, driven Tel. +61 3 9640 3854
by a normalisation (higher) of travel costs and licencing expenses. Salary & Wages (within
Employee benefits expense) grew +18% to $142m, a meaningful increase), with +7% from Cameron Halkett
higher headcount and +11% inflation-related; iii) Operating EBITDA of $45m fell -8% vs. pcp. cameron.halkett@wilsonsadvisory.com.au
and was at the bottom end of the $45-$50m guidance range; and iv) Normalised NPAT of Tel. +61 2 8247 3162
$25.7m (-20% pcp.) also came in at the bottom end of the $25m-$30m range.
Lachlan Woods
Strategic Review Announced: Recently appointed CEO Ms. Libby Roy announced a strategic lachlan.woods@wilsonsadvisory.com.au
review of the business which will take ~3 months with the outcomes expected to be shared Tel. +61 3 9640 3818
shortly thereafter. Areas of focus will include leveraging its customer base, targeting customer
opportunities that can scale, accelerating its cloud deployment and reducing product silos.
Forecasts & Valuation: In light of today’s result, taking into consideration the strategic review will 1.20
Aug-21 Dec-21 Apr-22 Aug-22
take time and broad market conditions, we have reduced our revenue forecasts by -4% to -7%
BVS XSO
over FY23e to FY24e. EBITDA has then fallen by a larger amount as we expect Bravura will have
a higher operating base for longer. 1-mth 6-mth 12-mth
Abs return (%) (3.6) (11.9) (51.6)
Rel return (%) (1.7) (2.1) (40.4)
Financial summary (Y/E Jun, AUD) FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E Key changes 28-Feb After Var %
Sales ($m) 243.0 266.6 276.9 293.2 312.9 Sales FY23E 289.5 276.9 -4%
EBITDA norm ($m) 57.8 53.1 51.2 58.4 68.0 ($m) FY24E 312.9 293.2 -6%
Consensus EBITDA ($m) 52.6 59.8 76.2 FY25E 337.0 312.9 -7%
NPAT norm ($m) 31.6 25.7 22.0 27.0 33.9 EBITDA FY23E 58.2 51.2 -12%
EV/Sales (x) 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 norm FY24E 66.5 58.4 -12%
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.1 6.0 6.0 5.1 4.3 ($m) FY25E 76.2 68.0 -11%
P/E (x) 11.5 14.2 16.7 13.6 10.8 Price target 1.37 1.22 -11%
Rating U/W U/W
Source: Company data, Wilsons estimate, Refinitiv.
All amounts are in Australian Dollar (A$) unless otherwise stated.
Catalysts Risks
i) Expansion of Sonata into funds administration segment; ii) Contract i) Bravura is reliant on signing large licence contracts, and while recurring
renewal of long-term clients; iii) Conversion of pipeline into new client revenue is c70% of the mix any slippage in licence signing would lead to
wins; iv) Securing organic growth. forecast pressure; ii) Competitive pressure; iii) Partial cannibalisation of
revenues of Sonata from legacy wealth management products.
P&L ($m) FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E Balance sheet ($m) FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E
Sales 243.0 266.6 276.9 293.2 312.9 Cash & equivalents 73.6 48.7 60.8 65.7 74.9
EBITDA norm 57.8 53.1 51.2 58.4 68.0 Current receivables 40.2 39.8 37.2 39.4 42.0
EBIT norm 39.4 33.4 30.0 36.2 44.8 Current inventory 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PBT norm 36.1 29.8 27.5 33.7 42.4 PPE 54.4 49.0 43.2 37.1 30.8
NPAT norm 31.6 25.7 22.0 27.0 33.9 Intangibles 252.6 264.1 277.1 289.7 300.8
NPAT reported 34.6 29.9 22.0 27.0 33.9 Other assets 37.0 48.6 35.9 37.6 39.7
EPS norm (cents) 12.9 10.4 8.8 10.9 13.7 Total assets 457.8 450.1 454.3 469.5 488.2
DPS (cents) 8.6 6.9 5.3 6.5 8.1 Current payables 13.5 15.7 12.1 12.5 13.1
Total debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Growth (%) FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E Other liabilities 114.5 99.5 98.5 102.5 107.1
Sales (11.4) 9.7 3.9 5.9 6.7 Total liabilities 128.0 115.2 110.6 115.0 120.2
EBITDA norm (14.7) (8.1) (3.7) 14.2 16.3 Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NPAT norm (22.2) (18.8) (14.5) 22.7 25.8 Shareholders equity 329.8 334.9 343.7 354.4 368.0
EPS norm (cents) (22.9) (19.5) (14.6) 22.7 25.8
DPS (cents) (21.8) (19.8) (23.5) 22.7 25.8 Cash flow ($m) FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E
Operating cash flow 47.3 42.1 53.8 49.8 57.5
Margins and returns (%) FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E Maintenance capex (12.7) (13.1) (14.3) (14.4) (14.0)
EBITDA margin 23.8 19.9 18.5 19.9 21.7 Free cash flow 34.6 29.0 39.6 35.4 43.5
EBIT margin 16.2 12.5 10.8 12.3 14.3 Growth capex (12.7) (13.1) (14.3) (14.4) (14.0)
PBT margin 14.9 11.2 9.9 11.5 13.5 Acquisitions/disposals (23.1) (6.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0
NPAT margin 13.0 9.6 7.9 9.2 10.8 Dividends paid (17.1) (24.0) (13.2) (16.2) (20.3)
ROA 8.6 7.4 6.6 7.7 9.2 Other cash flow (5.3) (8.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0
ROIC 15.4 11.7 10.6 12.5 15.3 Cash flow pre-financing (23.5) (23.1) 12.1 4.9 9.2
ROE 9.6 7.7 6.4 7.6 9.2 Funded by equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Funded by cash/debt 25.6 24.9 (12.1) (4.9) (9.2)
Interims ($m) 2H21A 1H22A 2H22A 1H23E 2H23E
Sales 127.3 132.3 134.3 135.6 141.3 Liquidity FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E
EBITDA norm 38.0 29.3 23.9 24.3 26.9 Cash conversion (%) 81.7 79.2 105.2 85.2 84.6
EBIT norm 28.5 19.5 13.9 13.8 16.1 Net debt ($m) (73.6) (48.7) (60.8) (65.7) (74.9)
PBT norm 25.6 17.9 11.8 12.6 14.9 Net debt / EBITDA (x) (1.3) (0.9) (1.2) (1.1) (1.1)
NPAT norm 22.6 16.1 9.6 10.1 11.9 ND / ND + Equity (%) (28.7) (17.0) (21.5) (22.8) (25.5)
NPAT reported 25.5 15.3 14.7 10.1 11.9 EBIT / Interest expense (x) 12.1 9.1 12.0 14.6 18.3
EPS norm (cents) 9.2 6.5 3.9 4.1 4.8
DPS (cents) 6.0 3.7 3.2 2.4 2.9 Valuation FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E
EV / Sales (x) 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9
Stock specific FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E EV / EBITDA (x) 5.1 6.0 6.0 5.1 4.3
Wealth Management Rev 160.2 169.5 178.8 187.8 196.6 EV / EBIT (x) 7.4 9.5 10.2 8.3 6.5
Funds Admin Rev 82.9 97.1 98.1 105.4 116.3 P / E (x) 11.5 14.2 16.7 13.6 10.8
Wealth EBITDA 50.5 39.3 42.0 46.9 52.1 P / BV (x) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0
Funds Admin EBITDA 35.3 44.8 42.7 46.4 51.5 FCF yield (%) 9.5 7.9 10.8 9.7 11.9
Wealth EBITDA Margin % 31.5 23.2 23.5 25.0 26.5 Dividend yield (%) 5.8 4.7 3.6 4.4 5.5
Funds Admin EBITDA Margin % 42.6 46.2 43.5 44.0 44.3 Payout ratio (%) 66.8 66.6 59.6 59.6 59.6
Total EBITDA Margin % 23.8 19.9 18.5 19.9 21.7 Franking (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Weighted shares (m) 245.9 247.9 248.4 248.4 248.4
• Total Revenue of $267m (+9.7% vs. pcp) technically just missed guidance, which was for “full year revenue
growth in excess of 10%” and rounding up to 10% still does not “exceed” 10%. Wealth Management of
$170m was up +5.8% vs. pcp and Funds Administration of $97m was up +17.2% vs. pcp.
• Corporate Costs of $39m grew +6%, driven by a normalisation (higher) of travel costs and licencing expenses.
• Salary & Wages (within Employee benefits expense) grew +18% to $142m, a meaningful increase, but was
similar to FY20 $137m). We note that group headcount grew +7%, suggesting +11% was price
growth/inflation-related.
• Operating EBITDA of $45m fell -8% vs. pcp. and posted a 17% margin, which was down ~300bps. The $45m
was also at the bottom end of the $45-$50m guidance range and below Consensus at $48m. Wealth
Management EBITDA was $39m (-22% vs. pcp., 23% margin contracted from 32%), Fund Administration
EBITDA was $45m (+27% vs. pcp., 46% margin expanded from 43%).
• Normalised NPAT of $25.7m (-20% pcp.) came in at the bottom end of the $25m-$30m
• UK Demand Soft: Per the Chiarman’s report: “In the UK there was reduced interest in large scale software
implementations, as well as a slowdown in anticipated development programmes with existing clients’ range”.
• Wealth Management is Challenging: Per the CEO’s report: “The Wealth Management segment’s EBITDA
reduced year on year due to global wage costs driven by localised resource shortages, the global resource mix
between high cost and low-cost countries and our overall global staff attrition, in line with the market at just
over 20%”.
• Future Geographic Expansion Flagged: The BVS CEO also noted that “we will be exploring greater geographic
expansion of our existing products in the next phase of the strategy”.
Topics to Explore
Strategic Insights
CEO Libby Roy announced that Bravura would be undertaking a strategic review of the business, with the process to
take ~3 months. She highlighted 5 areas of focus:
On 30 October 2020, Bravura acquired Delta Financial Systems Limited (“Delta”), a ”UK software company that
provides technology to power complex pensions administration in the UK market” for $41.5m, including $26m of
goodwill. $26.6m was paid upfront with $15.7m in contingent consideration.
In the 8 months of ownership in FY21, Delta generated $10.2m in revenue with its NPAT contribution deemed
“immaterial”. Assuming no meaningful seasonality, this would suggest annualised revenue for ~$13m, with an
incremental ~$3m in FY22.
Bravura disclosed in its accounts that Delta contributed an incremental $2.3m in revenue in FY22, which suggests it
contributed $12.3m in revenue. If accurate, this would be $2.7m, or -18%, lower than the annualized FY21 revenue.
Bravura also disclosed that it “recognised a $6.6m gain arising from the partial re-measurement of contingent
consideration for the Delta acquisition”.
Bravura’s Recurring Revenue has two components, contracted and attached. “Contracted” is ‘as advertised’ and
tends to grow consistently over time. In 2H22, ‘Contracted’ fell for the first time since 1H15, due to a client churn
event, but is usually very reliable. “Attached”, however, is predictable and re-occurring, but not contracted, so is
subject to more volatility. “Attached” revenue grew in 2H22, its first expansion since 2H19. If both of these metrics
can continue to grow, consistently, incremental confidence will return to investors. We also note that improving
Project work is encouraging, as this can be a leading indicator of future customer wins.
5 12 9
3 9
9 7
5 23 23 25 16 17
5 15
33% 27% 26%
28 11 29%
5
4 34 39% 38%
35 39 19% 22% 21% 31%
11 35 33%
26 28 52 44 26%
51 39
20 42
31
22 22
18
52% 56% 55% 52%
71 72 70 48% 48% 47%
54 56 59 61 41% 38% 41% 41% 42%
45 47 48 49 49
1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 1H19 2H19 1H20 2H20 1H21 2H21 1H22 2H22
1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 1H19 2H19 1H20 2H20 1H21 2H21 1H22 2H22
Recurring Revenue, Contracted (A$m) Recurring Revenue, Attached (A$m) Licence Fees (A$m) Project Fees (A$m)
Project Fees (A$m) Licence Fees (A$m) Recurring Revenue, Attached (A$m) Recurring Revenue, Contracted (A$m)
• High-quality deals in the pipeline, with high confidence we will close and execute on these opportunities
• Specialist labour market remains challenging
• In Australia there is continued market consolidation providing further opportunities for the business and while
recovery in the EMEA wealth industry remains subdued, there are business opportunities in the existing
customer base
• The trend in capitalised R&D spend from 2H22 will continue into FY23e
• Will provide further detail on the outlook of the business post the completion of their strategy review.
• Revenue – Down -4% to -7% over FY23e to FY24e on the back of us estimating lower growth within the UK
division and Delta
• EBITDA – EBITDA has been revised down -12% as a result of us forecasting lower revenue and a higher
OPEX base
• NPAT – Revised down -21% to -23% with the primary difference from the changes in EBITDA being the
increased forecasted amortisation costs as a result of the company capitalising more development and us
assuming they will have higher R&D costs for longer.
We value BVS based on a FY23 target EV/EBITDA multiple, which based on today’s forecast changes results in our
valuation falling by -11% to $1.22 and us retaining our UnderWeight recommendation.
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