July 28, 2021

To: Senate Democratic Caucus

House Democratic Caucus
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

From: Immigration Hub, People’s Action, Service Employees International Union (SEIU), and Voto Latino

Ref: The 2022 Electoral Imperative: Deliver on Citizenship for Dreamers and Undocumented Immigrants to
Maintain Majority, Galvanize Critical Blocs of Votersand Prevent Backlash [CONFIDENTIAL]

Introduction

Citizenship for undocumented immigrants in America can no longer remain an unf ulfilled campaign promise for the
Democratic Party. Today, as President Biden makes headway on his immigration blueprint, the opportunity to deliver
on this long held pledge is finally viable via the groundbreaking Senate Democratic leadership’s budget reconciliation
plan. With both the urgency of the recent federal ruling on DACA and a very consequential election nearing, the electoral
imperative for Democrats is to act both rhetorically and legislatively on citizenship to win votes in battleground states and
among key voting blocs. Failure to fulfill this basic campaign promise will depress base turnout, particularly among Latinos,
leave critical swing votes on the table, and result in widespread losses for Democrats in the upcoming midterms and
potentially sacrifice the White House in 2024.

For over a decade, citizenship for undocumented immigrants has remained highly salient across the political spectrum. In 2012,
Democrats galvanized Latino voters with the promise of citizenship, DACA and relief for farm workers and many more
undocumented immigrants while increasing pro-immigrant sentiment among base and swing voters. For years following 2012,
immigration legislation failed to pass as the Republican Party began evolving a political strategy centered on weaponizing
immigration to create culture wars, division and distractions to rally far right voters and block or terminate protections for
undocumented immigrants -- a strategy the party still employs today to undermine the Biden agenda and unseat 2022 Democratic
hopefuls.

Evolving with the Republican strategy is a common and now outdated misconception that humane and commonsense
immigration solutions are a political loser for Democrats and their outreach to white working America and other swing
voters at large. This notion has been detrimental to consolidating and exciting critical blocs of the electorate, namely
moderate white voters and Latino voters.

Contrary to this notion, voter movement, polling, social listening, digital research, deep canvassing, partner analyses and election
results consistently show that:
1. When Democrats push forward - publicly and clearly - their vision and values-based solutions on immigration
in stark contrast to the Republican attacks and crackdown approach to the issue, they win the public debate
and persuade voters while also inoculating swing voters who are targeted by the opposition. By not allowing
Republicans to be the sole voices filling the vacuum on the issue, Democrats are able to prevent voter backlash on
immigration, validate pro-immigrant sentiment, and move voters in favor of Democratic candidates. Alternatively,
allowing Republican attacks to go unanswered deepens voter misunderstanding of the Democratic position on the
issue, flattens base enthusiasm, and moves a set of moderates vulnerable to GOP messaging and misinformation.

2. Latino voters can be re-engaged, persuaded and galvanized by delivering on citizenship for undocumented
immigrants. Over the last few cycles, the Republican Party has made gains on the Latino vote through targeted
 misinformation, painting Democratic positions on immigration - among other issues - as fraught and dangerous. One of
the primary ways Democrats can counteract this trend and excite and regain ground with Latino voters in key
battleground states is by investing in targeted outreach, socializing their position on immigration and, more importantly,
delivering legislation that creates a path to citizenship for Dreamers, farm workers, TPS-holders and other
undocumented immigrants. Ultimately, the unfulfilled promise of 2012 must be fulfilled to help redefine the
Democratic Party among Latinos.

3. Delivering on citizenship consolidates critical sets of voters - the base, the middle and Latino voters-
increasing the opportunity for major battleground wins in 2022. From Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to Arizona,
North Carolina and Florida, white suburban and Latino voters will play a crucial role in maintaining and flipping senate
and congressional seats. Republicans have already admitted that, once again, the “border” and “amnesty” will be used
against Democrats and President Biden. To put a definitive block against these attacks beyond winning the public debate
and socializing the Democratic vision on immigration, Democrats must pass legislation that creates a path to citizenship
for undocumented populations -- thereby generating excitement among the base - including Black and AAPI voters - and
the Latino electorate, and persuading and inoculating other key swing voters against Republican and right-wing attacks
and misinformation.

Win the public debate, lean in: Citizenship is an opportunity for Democrats to persuade critical blocs of
voters and prevent backlash.

Voters across the political spectrum believe the nation’s immigration system is broken and want to see it fixed. Notably, voters
want to see the system fixed with Democratic proposals. Consistent with polling since 2018, the Immigration Hub, FWD.us and
America’s Voice’s latest June 2021 survey, conducted by Global Strategy Group, Hart Research and BSP Research, found that
voters are far more supportive of an approach that builds a functioning and humane immigration system over the “crackdown”
approach of the Republican Party. The majority of voters, including Independents, support citizenship for undocumented
immigrants, smart border management, and a robust plan to manage migration in a orderly and safe way and by addressing the
root causes of migration. Their support for these solutions aligns with President Biden’s immigration blueprint; and in
fact, Democrats hold the trust advantage over Republicans on the issue.

Immigration - namely citizenship - is an opportunity for Democrats, and a vulnerability for Republicans. Citizenship for
undocumented immigrants has remained consistently salient among voters, including Republicans, Independents, Black, AAPI
and Latino voters; sustaining an an average support of 70% (or more) since 2015. This remains true in 2021 when poll after poll -
from NPR/Ipsos to AGL Research - has found strong majority support for passing legislation that would create pathway to
citizenship for undocumented immigrants. The Hub’s poll also found support for citizenship for Dreamers, farmworkers, and
essential workers at above 70% among swing voters.

However, while House Democrats have passed two bills offering citizenship to Dreamers, TPS-holders and farm workers,
voters largely do not know where Democrats stand on immigration. In the 2021 Hub poll, the majority of voters did not
know what President Biden stood for on immigration, and thus carried low approval numbers on the issue. The same was
apparent in another poll conducted by EquisLab and BSP Research where majority Latino voters were not clear on Democrats’
position on the issue. In both polls, when the president’s solutions were articulated, there was a dramatic shift in support of
Biden’s approach to immigration and the border. This reflects the Hub’s 2018 and 2020 research which showed that
values-based, pro-immigrant messaging and policies are not only supported by battleground voters, but are also persuasive.

Simply, the notion that immigration is a political loser for Democrats has created bad political habits such as ignoring
immigration attacks or failing to talk immigration to their voters at all. This is simply dangerous, and moderating on
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solutions does little to shift voter sentiment. When Democrats fail to articulate a bold, values- based vision for immigration,
Republicans fill the vacuum and move critical sets of moderates who are vulnerable to their attacks and misinformation
while, at large, voters fail to understand what Democrats stand for on the issue.

Voter contact programs and research in 2018 and 2020 demonstrated that by contrasting Trump and Republican position on
immigration with values-based, pro-immigrant messaging and solutions like citizenship, critical blocs of voters in battleground
states can be persuaded to support pro-immigrant policies and Democratic candidates, and inoculated against divisive,
anti-immigrant attacks and policies. This was markedly evident in 2018 when voters overwhelmingly rejected Republican
messaging around the “caravan” and opted for pro-immigrant candidates, helping flip the House.

In a 2020 experiment conducted by People’s Action, deep canvassing took place among white, working-class voters in rural
Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The results showed a dramatic shift in support for including undocumented
immigrants in expanded social safety net programs. In the same year, the Immigration Hub also worked with BlueLabs
Analytics to test a series of real-world political, immigration-focused ads on voters in the key battleground states where they found
that not only did voters move away from Trump, but Biden’s vision for immigration reform with a path to citizenship drove
voter enthusiasm in his favor, while also damaging Trump’s support among crucial voting blocs: men and undecided voters.
In a randomized controlled test, also conducted by BlueLabs and the Immigration Hub, of voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania
before and after being exposed to the Hub’s pro-immigrant content, swing voters moved toward Biden by five percentage points
and away from Trump by seven percentage points - among other movements on views in favor of immigration policy solutions.

Ultimately, voter outreach programs in 2020 centered on employing pro-immigrant, solutions-based messaging, ads and policies
shifted voter sentiment on the issue and moved voters in favor of Democrats, such as President Joe Biden, Pennsylvania’s Rep.
Susan Wild (PA-07), Michigan’s Rep. Elissa Slotkin (MI-08), Arizona’s Sen. Mark Kelly, Georgia Lucy McBath (GA-6) and
Colorado’s Sen. John Hickenlooper. This continued a series of successes in effectively maximizing the issue that began with Sen.
Harry Reid’s (D-NV) 2010 race and that of Sen. Michael Bennet’s (D-CO) election against hardline, anti-immigrant candidate
Ken Buck.

What stands true then, stands true today: By leaning in and socializing the Democratic vision on immigration in contrast
to the Republican agenda, Democrats can win the public debate and take a swath of critical voters.According to the
June 2021 poll, conducted by three pollsters, 73% of voters say their own United States Senator should vote for citizenship
proposals, while only 27% say their Senator should vote against them. Further, there is a political price to pay for Senators who
stand in the way: 50% of voters say they are less likely to vote for a Senator who blocks citizenship legislation, while only 29% say
they would be more likely to vote for a Senator who blocks the legislation.

Regain ground: Democrats can re-engage and galvanize Latino voters by f ulfilling the promise of
citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

Over the last few election cycles, the Democratic Party has seen an erosion of Latino voters at large and in key battleground
regions, such as South Florida and the Rio Grande Valley. While the Trump campaign ultimately lost the Latino vote to both
Hilary Clinton and candidate Joe Biden, respectively, the Republican Party and right-wing groups made gains through targeted
advertising and misinformation. Among the hyperbolic attacks against Democrats, Republicans defined the Democrats’ position
on immigration as one of “open borders” that would lead to crime, unemployment and disruption of elections. Unanswered,
these attacks either persuaded voters in favor of Republicans or kept them home and, ultimately, defined Democrats on
immigration for many battleground Latino voters.

Where voter engagement groups and Democratic candidates have aggressively reached the Latino electorate on immigration, the
dividends have paid off. Notably, the political stories of Arizona (see LUCHA), Wisconsin (see Voces de la Frontera Action),
Georgia (see Mijente, GLAHR and others), Colorado (see CIRC and COLOR) and Nevada (see the Culinary Workers Union)

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are quintessential examples of how investment in Latino outreach and socializing the Democratic vision on immigration, among
other relevant issues of concern, can move this electorate solidly into the Democratic coalition.

The Latino vote must not be taken for granted to win in 2022, ‘24 and future elections. Democrats have an opportunity to
redefine their Party among Latino voters by boldly articulating their position, pushing back against Republicans, and
delivering on the unf ulfilled promise - immigration reform with a pathway to citizenship. A 2021 poll conducted by
EquisLab and BSP Research found that:

● Much more must be done to shore up knowledge and awareness of what Biden and Democrats are promoting while
seizing the opportunity to clearly define Republicans as blocking progress. Even as the Republican Party has continued
to play to a shrinking nativist base and admitted to obstructing the president’s agenda, Latino voters are still not aware of
their position or believe the GOP are interested in bipartisan efforts – this presents a need and an opportunity to better
define Democratic solutions and Republican efforts to obstruct.

● Inaction on immigration will cost Democrats more than Republicans, however taking action can serve as a major
boost for Democrats and President Biden. When asked who would deserve blame if immigration reform does NOT
pass this year, Latinos are equally split with 30% blaming Biden/Democrats, 31% blaming Republicans and 40% blaming
both parties equally. However, when given the alternative scenario, that immigration reform does pass, Democrats
emerge with a +47 margin with 57% crediting Biden/Dems to only 10% crediting the GOP. This is particularly the
case with key political segments such as Latino independents (48% credit Dems, 8% credit GOP, +40) and undecided
Latino voters (45% credit Dems, 6% credit GOP, +39, and Latinos in Texas 61% credit Dems, 10% credit GOP, +51).

The promise of legislation that would create a pathway to citizenship energized the Latino electorate in 2012. Nearly ten years
later that campaign pledge failed to materialize as Democrats gradually moved away from the issue and Republicans weaponized it
against them. Their failure to deliver, on top of the near-silence on the issue, is not lost on the Latino electorate.

However, Democrats have an opportunity to regain the Latino electorate’s confidence and trust. According to the 2021 EquisLab
and BSP Research poll, by an overwhelming margin, 80% to 20%, Latino voters are ready to credit Biden and Democrats for
finally addressing immigration. The majority agree, including 80% of independents and 56% of Republican Latinos, with the
following perspective:

Politicians have been talking about fixing immigration for over 30 years and nothing permanent has been done. If President
Biden signs into law an immigration reform that gives Dreamers permanent legal status and a path to citizenship, and
essential workers such as undocumented farmworkers legal status and a path to a green card, it may not fix everything, but it
shows he is living up to his campaign promises to get things done.

To close the margins and effectively brand the Democratic Party as the party of Latino voters, Democrats must seize
the opportunity - tell Latinos where they stand on immigration, frame the Republican position, and f ulfill the
campaign promise on citizenship.

Delivering on citizenship consolidates critical sets of voters - the base, the middle and Latino voters-
increasing the opportunity for major battleground wins in 2022.

Already, the Republican Party and anti-immigrant groups are using immigration to undermine President Biden’s overall agenda
and define Democrats. From boat tours on the southern border to ads attacking Sen. Mark Kelly (AZ), Trump’s playbook is back
in an early start to define the Democratic Party as the “open borders” party and block legislation. Furthermore, all signs signal that
bipartisanship on the issue is merely an illusion, a political chess move to corner Democrats in defeat and flip seats in 2022.

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There’s no question: going on offense on immigration by delivering on citizenship is crucial to gaining and maintaining
congressional seats. As stated in the first section of this memorandum, Democrats can win the public debate and persuade voters
by publicly and repeatedly articulating their solutions on immigration and the border. Already, President Biden has set the
advantage for the party with the progress his administration has made to manage the border and migration, reunite families and
undo egregious Trump policies. However, now the Biden administration must communicate their progress and Democrats in
Congress must confidently move citizenship across the finish line via budget reconciliation－denying Republicans another
opportunity to once again take away a major policy and political victory.

Citizenship, the most popular among the immigration solutions, will consolidate critical sets of voters to swing the pendulum in
favor of Democrats in battleground regions where either the trifecta of the electorate is needed (base, middle and Latino voters) or
where less than a thousand votes over a candidate can clinch a seat. From the Black, Latino and AAPI electorate to white voters in
swing districts, citizenship and solutions at the border can serve to move these voters away from Republicans in tight races who
often weaponize the issue to pit communities against each other..

In 2020, a report by the Immigration Hub, America’s Voice and the NILC Justice Fund highlighted the major findings from
research, digital testing and voter outreach programs in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina,
Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin that ultimately underscored three primary themes: (1) Trump and Republican anti-immigrant
attacks had increasingly become political liabilities, (2) the American electorate’s support, especially that of swing voters
(including Latinos), for pro-immigrant policies and opposition to Trump’s immigration approach continued to swell, and (3) an
opportunity existed to go on offense on immigration, create a net negative for anti-immigrant candidates and move voters in favor
of pro-immigrant candidates. The latter point was particularly evident in the following case studies:

● Arizona. Arizonans, like many others across the nation, were in favor of solutions, not the division promoted by Trump
and McSally. Polls conducted by ALG Research and Global Strategy Group, respectively, found that pro-immigrant
policies enjoyed wide support among the majority of voters, including swing voters. Not lost on Arizona voters are the
anti-immigrant legislative and legal battles of the last decade that resulted in the defeat of xenophobic former sheriff of
Maricopa County Joe Arpaio and the expulsion from office of state Sen. Russell Pearce. Thanks to 10 years of organizing
and investment in Latino voter education, turnout and registration, LUCHA, the MiAZ coalitions and other groups
were able to help flip Arizona -- a fight that was driven a decade earlier by the resolve to combat egregious immigration
policies, racial profiling and deportations. The story of Arizona underscores that both progressive immigration
solutions work to move an electorate and, most importantly, parachuting into a state to move Latinos on an election
cycle is not enough or strategic.

● Georgia. Former Senator Perdue’s campaign, aided by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and the
Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), the GOP Senate superPAC, used various anti-immigrant, xenophobic, and anti-semitic
ads to attack then candidate Jon Ossoff who did not shy away from immigration. His immigration position, on top of
aggressive Latino vote outreach that allowed Latinos to shatter their best turnout numbers in a runoff election, helped
move the margins against Purdue.

● Michigan. A poll of 623 registered Michigan voters, conducted by Change Research, in the last week before Election
Day found anti-immigrant attacks against Sen. Peters failed to convince voters while large majorities of voters support a
pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and Dreamers. Sen. Peters had been attacked for his support for
sanctuary cities. The survey found this line of attack unconvincing. Respondents were shown one such video ad and
asked how convincing they found it on a scale of 0 to 10. 53% rated it a 0, 1, or 2, while only 30% rated it 8, 9, or 10. And
those who did find it very convincing were overwhelmingly already planning to vote for Republican John James.
○ Dwindling support for Trump among suburban voters, particularly women, started early despite his attempts to
scare the suburban electorate with attacks on refugees and immigrants. The trend continued, increasing Joe
Biden’s margin of victory. Key suburbs in Michigan, especially surrounding Detroit, came in strong for the vice

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 president and Senator Gary Peters - both of whom were consistently attacked on “amnesty” and “sanctuary
cities”. According to the Hub’s post-election survey conducted by Global Strategy Group, Biden won 68% of
urban voters to 31% for Trump and 54% of suburban voters to 44% for Trump. For white female college
graduates, the Democratic advantage grew from 6% in 2016 to 20% in 2020.

Today, the trends of 2020 stand true and can be improved upon to effectively win in 2022 in states and districts where the margin
of victory is close at hand, such as North Carolina and Florida. Democrats must go on offense before Republicans, once again,
weaponize immigration to define Democrats, misinform and distract voters from their victories on other issues, and pick off key
voters who ultimately support the Democratic vision on immigration. Socializing and saturating President Biden and
Democrats’ immigration solutions is a first and evergreen step; passing the Senate leadership’s budget reconciliation
plan that would, once and for all, create a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants must be the
immediate next step this year.