7

The binomial distribution

Skills Check a) i) P (X = 0) = 10C0(0.5)0 0.510 = 0.000 977
ii) P (X = 1) = 10C1(0.5)1 0.59 = 0.009 77
1. a) 3 628 800 b) 6435
iii) P (X = 2) = 10C2(0.5)2 0.58 = 0.043 9
2. 10.4
iv) P (X = 3) = 10C3(0.5)3 0.57 = 0.117
Exercise 7.1
b) i) P(no more than 1 head) = 1 – P(0, 1 H) = 0.0107
1. a) 1 7 21 35 35 21 7 1
ii) P(at least 3 heads) = 1 – P(0, 1, 2 H) = 0.945
b) i) 35
iii) P(more than 3 heads) = 1 – P(0, 1, 2, 3 H)
ii) 21
= 0.828
c) remember that the 1 at the start is the number
11. a) P (X > 2) = 1 – P(0, 1, 2) = 1
 – (0.1422 + 0.3012
of ways of choosing no objects, so choosing 3
+ 0.2924) = 0.264
objects will be the 4th number and choosing 5
will be the 6th entry in the row. b) P (X ≤ 10) = 1 – P(11, 12) = 1.00

⎛ 10 ⎞ ⎛9⎞ 12. a) P (X ≤ 2) = P(0, 1, 2) = 0

 .003171 + 0.02114
2. a) i) ⎜ ⎟ = 210 ii) ⎜ ⎟ = 1
⎝ 4⎠ ⎝0⎠ + 0.06695 = 0.0913
⎛ 15 ⎞ b) P (X > 19) = P(20) = 0.2520 = 9.09 × 10–13
⎛ 100 ⎞
iii) ⎜ ⎟ = 5005 iv) ⎜ ⎟ = 4950
⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 2⎠ 13. The distribution of the number correct for Suki is B
1
b) i) C2 = 45
10
ii) 11C6 = 462 (5, )
4
iii) 12C12 = 1 iv) 50C20 = 4.71 × 1013 5
a) P(X = 0) = ⎛⎜ 3 ⎞⎟ = 0.237
3. a) P (X = 2) = 6C2(0.5)2 (0.5)4 = 0.234 ⎝4⎠
3 2
b) P (X = 5) = 6C5(0.5)5 (0.5)1 = 0.09375 ⎛5⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 3 ⎞
b) P(X = 3) = ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟
4. a) P (X = 2) = 6C5(0.3)2 (0.7)4 = 0.324 ⎝3⎠ ⎝ 4 ⎠ ⎝ 4 ⎠

b) P (X = 5) = 6C5(0.3)5 (0.7)1 = 0.0102 = 0.0879

5. a) P (X = 3) = C3(0.4) (0.6) = 0.142
12 3 9

b) P (X = 8) = 12C8(0.4)8 (0.6)4 = 0.0420

Exercise 7.2
6. a) P (X = 3) = 12C3(0.7)3 (0.3)9 = 0.00149 1. a) E(X ) = 35 × 0.5 = 17.5

b) P (X = 8) = 12C8(0.7)8 (0.3)4 = 0.231 b) Var(X ) = 35 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 8.75

0 10 2. mean = 75 × 0.4 = 30, variance = 75 × 0.4 × 0.6 = 18,
⎛1⎞ ⎛2⎞
7. a) P (X = 0) = 10C0   ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ = 0.0173 standard deviation = 18 = 4.24
⎝3⎠ ⎝3⎠
⎛1⎞ ⎛2⎞
5 5 3. a) n = 25, np = 20, so p = 0.8.
b) P (X = 5) = 10C5   ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ = 0.137 variance = 25 × 0.8 × 0.2 = 4 so
⎝3⎠ ⎝3⎠
7 8 standard deviation = 2
⎛3⎞ ⎛1⎞
8. a) P (X = 7) = 15C7   ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ = 0.0131 b) P(X > μ) = P(X > 20) = P(X = 21, 22, 23, 24, 25)
⎝4⎠ ⎝4⎠
⎛3⎞ ⎛1⎞
8 7  = 0.1867 + 0.1358 + 0.0708 + 0.0236
b) P (X = 8) = 15C8   ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ = 0.0393 + 0.0038 = 0.421
⎝4⎠ ⎝4⎠
4. np = 30; np(1 – p) = 21 so (1 – p) = 0.7, p = 0.3,
9. The distribution of the number of heads when I
n = 100
toss a fair coin 6 times is B(6, 0.5) so
5. a) mean = 20 × 0.8 = 16; variance = 20 × 0.8 × 0.2
a) P (X = 2) = 6C2(0.5)2 0.54 = 0.234
= 3.2 (using B(20, 0.8) distribution)
b) P (X = 5) = 6C5(0.5)5 0.51 = 0.09375
b) P(X < 17) = 1 – P(X = 17, 18, 19, 20)
10. The distribution of the number of heads when I    = 1 – (0.2054 + 0.1369 + 0.0576
toss a fair coin 10 times is B(10, 0.5) so   + 0.0115) = 0.589

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The binomial distribution 1
6. Var(X ) = 20 × p × (1 – p) maximum when p = 0.5. 4. a) mean = 6 × 0.5 = 3; variance = 6 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 1.5
(quadratic function in p is symmetric, zeroes at 0,
1 mean max is at 0.5, or use calculus to find max
b) ∑ xf = 0 + 10 + 30 + 48 + 56 + 60 + 42 = 246
246
if you have already covered that section of P1) ⇒ x = = 3
82
7. μ = 8 × 0.12 = 0.96; σ = 8 × 0.12 × 0.88 =0.919 ∑ x 2 f = 0 + 10 + 60 + 144 + 224 + 300 + 252
P(X < μ – σ) = P(X = 0) = 0.888 = 0.360 = 990
990
⇒ σ 2 = − 32 = 3.07
Exercise 7.3 82
c) No, the variance of 3.07 is more than double the
1. a) No – not a f  ixed number of trials.
variance given by the binomial model.
1
b) Yes, n = 10, p =
6 Summary exercise 7
c) No, since the balls are taken without
1. a) using B(10, 0.02) P(X = 0) = 0.9810 = 0.817
replacement the trials are not independent.
⎛5 ⎞
1 b) using B(5, 0.817) P(X = 4) = ⎜ ⎟ × 0.8174 × 0.183
d) approximately – with n = 5, p = - but if you ⎝4⎠
2
have more information about family history = 0.408
doctors would tell you that this is not exactly on average it is 70 × 0.183 = 12.8
c)
accurate – but it is good enough for most
2. a) 0.04n = 5, so n is 125.
purposes.
b) now 0.04n = 3 so 75 people in second sample and
1
e) Yes, n = 25, p = (6 of 36 outcomes are variance = 75 × 0.04 × 0.96 = 2.88,
6
doubles) standard deviation is 1.70
No – the binomial always counts the numbers
f) 3. a) using B(30, 0.1) P(X ≤ 4) = 0.0424 + 0.1413
of times something happens in a f  ixed number + 0.2277 + 0.2361
of trials. + 0.1771 = 0.825
b) P(X = 4) = 0.177
2. a) i) 0.0424 ii) 0.141
4. a) i) using B(5, 0.4) P(X ≤ 2) = 0.0778 + 0.2592
iii) 0.228 iv) 0.236 + 0.3456 = 0.683
b) the mode is 3 ii) P(X = 2, 3) = 0.3456 + 0.2304 = 0.576
c) mean = 30 × 0.1 = 3; variance = 30 × 0.1 × 0.9 using B(20, 0.4) P(X = 7) = 0.166
b)
= 2.7 c) mean = 5 × 0.4 = 2, variance = 5 × 0.4 × 0.6 = 1.2,
3. a) independence and that probability not standard deviation = 1.2 = 1.10.
dependent on the time of day (questionable), 105
f  ixed number of trials is given and two
i)
d) ∑ xf = 105; ∑ x 2 f = 349, so=
x = 2.1;
50
outcomes. n = 40, p = 0.08 
Var =
349
=
− 2.12 = 2.57; st. dev =
2.57 1.60
50
b) independence (f  ixed number of trials (screws)
is given and two outcomes) – constant These values do not support Louise’s belief.
ii) 
probability is ok if independence is ok. n = 48, The mean of 2.1 is close to the mean given by
p = 0.02 the binomial model but the standard deviation
of 1.60 is approximately 45% greater than that
c) need to assume the balls are indistinguishable
given by the binomial model.
by feel and the person drawing them can not
see the colour; and that they are mixed between 5. a) i) using B(40, 0.2)
draws – this is to establish independence and
constant probability; f  ixed number of trials is P(X ≤ 10) = 0.839
given and two outcomes. n = 50, p = 0.3
using B(40, 0.12)
ii)
d) same as for part c with the additional assumption
⎛ 40 ⎞
that the ‘large’ number of balls in the drum is P(X = 5) = ⎜ ⎟ × 0.125 × 0.8835 = 0.187
large enough that the difference in probability ⎝ 5⎠
of getting any colour is negligible even when using B(40, 0.4)
iii)
50 balls have been taken out and not replaced.
n = 50, p = 0.3 P(10 < X < 20) = 0.835

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The binomial distribution 2
 Binomial parameters are n = 750 and p = 0.28
b) using B(4, 0.09):
b)
mean = 750 × 0.28 = 210 and variance ⎛4⎞
= 750 × 0.28 × 0.72 = 151.2 i) P(X = 2) = ⎜ ⎟ × 0.912 × 0.092 = 0.0402
⎝2⎠
6. a) the table shows the probabilities up to 8 games
won (using B(15, 0.3)) by Ronnie correct to P(at least one) = 1 – P(none)
ii) 
4 dp. = 1 – 0.914 = 0.314

Games won 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Probability 0.0047 0.0305 0.0916 0.1700 0.2186 0.2061 0.1472 0.0811 0.0348

i) 0.219 c) need all n to work, so P(set works) = (1 – p)20

fewer than half is up to 7, probability = 0.950
ii) = 0.96620 = 0.50065... which is approx 50%.
0 – exactly half is not possible in an odd
iii)  10. a) using B(30, 0.1):
number of games ⎛ 30 ⎞
P(X ≤ 2) = 0.930 + 30 × 0.929 × 0.1 + ⎜ ⎟
this means he wins 2, 3, 4 or 5
iv)  ⎝ 2⎠
games – probability = 0.686 × 0.928 × 0.12 = 0.0424 + 0.1413
i) mean = 15 × 0.6 = 9; variance = 15 × 0.6
b) + 0.2277 = 0.411
× 0.4 = 3.6, σ = 3.6 = 1.90 ⎛ 32 ⎞
b) P(X = 2) = ⎜ ⎟ × 0.930 × 0.12 = 0.210
91 ⎝ 2⎠
∑
ii) x = 91; ∑x 2
= 853, so =
x = 9.1;
10 c) independence – that the beads go onto the string
 853
Var = =
− 9.12 = 2.st
49 ;σ
. dev =
2.49 1.58 randomly rather than the colours being chosen;
10
constant probability – that the number of beads
These values are close to those given by

in the bowl is large enough that the probability of
the binomial model and support Ronnie’s choosing a purple can be taken to stay the same.
claim.
11. ( 10C 8 × 0.728 × 0.282 ) + ( 10C 9 × 0.729 × 0.28) + 0.7210
7. a) i) 0.839 = 0.438 (3 s.f.)
0.107
ii)
0.831
iii) 12. i) 0.77 + ( 7C1 × 0.76 × 0.3) + ( 7C 2 × 0.75 × 0.32 )

b) For the binomial model the mean is 8 and the

= 0.647 (3 s.f.)
variance is 6.4. These values do not support Weather conditions quite often tend to persist for
 ii) 
Conn’s claim because of the high value of his several days at a time, so assuming independence
variance. (which is implied by random occurrences) is
unlikely to be a good assumption.
8. using B(18, 0.07):
If there are 1.2 faulty bulbs on average in boxes of
13. 
⎛ 18 ⎞ 20, then the probability of a particular bulb being
a) P(X ≤ 2) = 0
 .9318 + 18 × 0.9317 × 0.07 + ⎜ ⎟
× 0.9316 × 0.072 ⎝2 ⎠ faulty is 0.06.
P(0 or 1) = 0.94 20 + 20 × 0.06 × 0.9419 = 0.660 (3 s.f.)

= 0.2708 + 0.3669 + 0.2348 = 0.873
⎛ 18 ⎞
P(X = 4) = ⎜ ⎟ × 0.9314 × 0.074 = 0.0266
b)
⎝4 ⎠

9. a) Conditions for the binomial are

• there are a f  ixed number of trials
• each trial must have the same two possible
outcomes
• the outcomes of the trials have to be
independent of one another
• the probability has to remain constant.
(give any two)

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The binomial distribution 3