KRIZZA MEL C.

DASALLA RATING
BSA 4C PLANT PATHOLOGY SCORE

EXERCISE 1
SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF EPIDEMICS
(DISPERSAL OF PLANT PATHOGENS)

Table 1. Using the simple linear regression analysis, fit the negative exponential and inverse
power law models, to the following data of Colletotrichum geloeosporoides, the anthracnose
pathogen of stylo, a pasture legumes, at six distance from the point source of inoculum.

x y
0.4 13.3
0.7 16.6
1 10
2 7.3
5 7.3
10 2.7

RESULT: Negative Exponential Colletotrichum

ANOVA
Significan
  df SS MS F ce F
Regressi 1.7885 1.7885 29.446
on 1 07 07 76 0.005593
0.2429 0.0607
Residual 4 48 37
2.0314
Total 5 55      

Standa
Coefficie rd P- Lower Upper Lower Upper
  nts Error t Stat value 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
 Interce 0.1376 19.046 4.48E- 2.2388 3.0028 2.2388 3.0028
pt 2.620848 03 45 05 01 94 01 94
X - - - - -
Variabl 0.0294 5.4264 0.0055 0.2418 0.0781 0.2418 0.0781
e1 -0.16002 88 9 93 9 5 9 5

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9383
0.88040
R Square 7
Adjusted R 0.85050
Square 9
Standard 0.24644
Error 9
Observations 6

y
18
16
14
12 f(x) = 13.7473699635707 exp( − 0.160017428782168 x )
R² = 0.880406941597836
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12

y Exponential (y)

Figure 1. Negative Exponential Colletotrichum

X Variable 1 Residual Plot

0.4
0.2
Residuals

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
-0.2
-0.4
X Variable 1
Figure 2. Residual Plot (Left Corner) and Line Fit Plot (Right Corner)
DISCUSSION:

1. Which model fits that data better using graph (plot), r2 and Ftest of significance. Explain
the result in relation to the dispersal of pathogen.

ANSWER:
Based on the graph, R2, and F-test of significance, the regression analysis findings
revealed that the negative exponential model provided the best match.
The variance taken into consideration by regression is determined by the coefficient of
determination or R2. The amount of variance in the response variable that the model accounts
for. R2 displayed the percentage of the variation in Y (number of spores) that is explained by x
[distance] in the data. The better the fit of the data to the model, the closer the R2 is to 100% or a
100% R2 indicating that the model explains all the variability of the response data around its
mean. The dissemination of Colletotrichum gloeosporoides in our sample data revealed that the
negative exponential model provided.
The pathogen Colletotrichum gloeosporoides is splash-dispersed. Fitt, et al.
(1987) found that the exponential model fit the deposition gradients for spores carried in splash
droplets better. As the distance from the sources grows by a constant increment, the observed
variable in the exponential model has the feature of decreasing by half (half distance). The
simple exponential model, according to Kiyosawa and Shiyomi (1972), presupposes that y is
inversely proportional to an exponential function of x and that the quantity of spores deposited
falls exponentially as the distance from the source increases.
INVERSE POWER LAW MODEL

RESULT:
ANOVA
Significa
  df SS MS F nce F
Regressi 1.6778 18.977
on 1 17 1.677817 83 0.012097
0.3536
Residual 4 37 0.088409

2.0314
Total 5 55      

Standa
Coefficie rd P- Lower Upper Lower Upper
  nts Error t Stat value 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
0.1355 6.24E- 2.7507 1.9979 2.7507
Intercept 2.374331 58 17.51519 05 1.997961 02 61 02
X - -
Variable 0.1086 0.0120 0.1716 0.1716
1 -0.47333 53 -4.35636 97 -0.775 6 -0.775 6

RESIDUAL
OUTPUT

Observat Predicte Residu Standard

ion dY als Residuals
-
0.2202
1 2.80804 8 -0.82827
0.2662
2 2.543156 46 1.001127
-
0.0717
3 2.374331 5 -0.26978
-
0.0583
4 2.046243 7 -0.21948
0.3753
5 1.612535 4 1.411336
6 1.284447 - -1.09494
0.2911
 9
y
18
16 f(x) = 10.7438258051274 x^-0.473330846734322
14 R² = 0.825919175948951
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12

y Power (y)

Figure 3. Inverse Power Law model

X Variable 1 Residual Plot X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot

0.6 3
0.4
2
Residuals

0.2 Y
1 Predicted Y
Y

0
-1.5 -1 -0.5-0.2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
0
-0.4 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
X Variable 1 X Variable 1

Figure 4. Residual Plot (left Corner) and Line Fit Pit (Right Corner)
Table 2. Using the simple linear regression analysis, fit the negative exponential and inverse
power law models, to the following data of Puccinia striformis, the stripe rust pathogen of stylo,
a pasture legumes, at six distance from the point source of inoculum.

X Lny
Distance lesion per leaf ln(x)
10 0 2.302585
20 -1 2.995732
30 -2 3.401197
40 -3 3.688879
50 -3.5 3.912023
60 -3.5 4.094345
70 -4 4.248495
80 -4 4.382027

RESULT: Negative Exponential of Puccinia striformis

Regression Statistics
Multiple
R 0.94445
0.89198
R Square 6
Adjusted 0.87398
R Square 4
Standard
Error 0.526104
Observati
ons 8

ANOVA
Significa
  df SS MS F nce F
Regressio 13.7142 13.7142 49.548
n 1 9 9 39 0.000411
1.66071 0.27678
Residual 6 4 6
Total 7 15.375      

Lowe
r
Coefficie Standar P- Lower Upper 95.0 Upper
  nts d Error t Stat value 95% 95% % 95.0%
Intercept -0.05357 0.40993 - 0.9002 -1.05665 0.9495 - 0.9495
7 0.13068 98 09 1.056 09
 65
- - -
X 0.00811 - 0.0004 0.0372 0.077 0.0372
Variable 1 -0.05714 8 7.03906 11 -0.07701 8 01 8

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Standar
d
Observati Predicted Residu Residua
on Y als ls
1.28316
1 -0.625 0.625 2
0.19642
2 -1.19643 9 0.40328
-
3 -1.76786 0.23214 -0.4766
- -
4 -2.33929 0.66071 1.35649
- -
5 -2.91071 0.58929 1.20984
- -
6 -3.48214 0.01786 0.03666
0.05357 0.10998
7 -4.05357 1 5
1.28316
8 -4.625 0.625 2

TABLE 3:
PUCCINIA
STRIFORMIS

ln (lesions per
distance leaf)
x lny ln(x) ln(y)
2.30258
10 0 5 0
2.99573
20 -1 2 -1
3.40119
30 -2 7 -2
 3.68887
40 -3 9 -3
3.91202
50 -3.5 3 -3.5
4.09434
60 -3.5 5 -3.5
4.24849
70 -4 5 -4
4.38202
80 -4 7 -4

RESULTS:
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.989116
R Square 0.978351 the higher the r2 the better the precission of model
Adjusted
R Square 0.974743
Standard
Error 0.235534
Observatio
ns 8

ANOVA
Significa
  Df SS MS F nce F
15.0421 271.146 3.1969E-
Regression 1 15.04214 4 7 06
0.05547
Residual 6 0.332856 6
Total 7 15.375      

Lowe Uppe
r r
Coefficie Standard Lower Upper 95.0 95.0
  nts Error t Stat P-value 95% 95% % %
3.794322 6.0781 3.794 6.078
Intercept 4.936243 0.466678 10.5774 4.2E-05 25 64 322 164

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
 Standar
d
Observati Predicte Residual Residua
on dY s ls
-
1 0.137556 -0.13756 0.63081
1.40782
2 -1.30699 0.306992 4
0.69704
3 -2.152 0.151999 7
4 -2.75154 -0.24846 -1.1394
-
5 -3.21658 -0.28342 1.29972
0.44275
6 -3.59655 0.096548 5
-
7 -3.9178 -0.0822 0.37694
0.89923
8 -4.19609 0.19609 9

lny
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
-0.5
-1 f(x) = − 0.0571428571428571 x − 0.0535714285714288
R² = 0.89198606271777
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
-3.5
-4
-4.5

lny Linear (lny) Linear (lny)

Figure 5. Negative Exponential of Puccinia striformis

X Variable 1 Residual Plot X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot

1 0
0.5 -1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Residuals

-2 Y
0 Predicted Y
Y

-3
-0.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
-4
-1 -5
X Variable 1 X Variable 1
Figure 6. Residual Plot (Left Corner) and Line Fit Plot (Right Corner)
DISCUSSION:
2. Which model fits that data better using graph (plot), r2 and Ftest of significance. Explain
the result in relation to the dispersal of pathogen.

ANSWER:
The variance that a regression model accounts for is determined by the coefficient of
determination or R2. As previously said, the more closely the R2 approaches 100% or a 100%
R2 shows that the model fully accounts for all variation in the response data around its mean, the
better the data fits the model. In contrast to the negative exponential model, which had a lower
R2 of 0.89 or 89% R2, our sample data showed that the inverse power law model had a higher
R2 of 0.97 or 97%. This indicates that in the inverse power law model, the various distances
from the point source of inoculum account for 97% of the variation in the quantity of spores (y).
To ascertain whether the association is statistically significant, use the F-test for overall
significance.
The pathogen Puccinia striiformis is airborne. Fitt et al. (1987) found that power law
models suit deposition gradients for fungus with airborne spores better. Gregory, 1968 states that
the power law model presupposes that the quantity of spores deposited or the severity of the
disease (y) is inversely proportional to some power distance from the source (x).
DASALLA, KRIZZA MEL C.
BSA 4C PLANT PATHOLOGY
CRITIQUE PAPER

The title of the research paper is Fusarium Wilt Disease caused by

Fusariumoxysporumf.sp. cubense: A Threat To Banana Production In The Philippines. Banana

farming plays a vital role in the agriculture in the Philippines; it is a primary source of livelihood

and supply of bananas for exporting it to the other country. However, based from the study there

are a barrier in producing the banana such as the spreading of diseases that could affect the

farming process. The preventive measures for the said diseases on this study will be present as to

lessen and maintain the good production of banana planting.

Based from the research paper, the data shows that the researchers sought to assess and

determine the problems in the reproduction of banana and analyzing the different diseases that

the banana planters may encounter. The research paper has gaps because the contents of the

study are incomplete. So, as a future researcher I will suggest that they should have their

statement of the problems, research findings, conclusions, data gathering procedures, and more

related studies and Literatures must be included to support their study. In general, their study is

capably conducted as they successfully aim to seek for the possible problems in the banana

production particularly about diseases.