6.

431x - Recitation #1 Handout

Difei Zhang
7 September 2022

1 Outline and Intended Learning Outcomes

• Introductions and Logistics. [15 min]
– After this session, you will be able to:
∗ Know the structure of each recitation.
∗ Be familiar with recitation tools: Polls, Breakout rooms, etc.
• Set Theory [30 min]
– After this session, you will be able to
∗ Read and write using set notation.
∗ Perform basic set operations.
∗ Represent sets in Venn Diagrams.
• Basic Probability [20 min]
– After this session, you will be able to
∗ Identify sample space and event of your own model.
∗ Calculate basic probability.
• Probability Axioms [15 min]
– After this session, you will be able to
∗ Tell if a probability is valid or not.
—————————————————————————————————————————————

• Conditional Probability [20 min]

– After this session, you will be able to
∗ Calculate conditional probability
∗ Apply Bayes rule
• Independence [20 min]
– After this session, you will be able to
∗ Assess independence

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2 Introductions and Logistics
Poll 1 (Our first poll, 3 min). The poll here is anonymous. Please give your answers and then submit the
form.
https://forms.gle/yKb3oHQRb35jcMi3A

3 Set Theory
Poll 2 (Power set, 5 min). How many elements does the power set of A = {1, green, H} have?
https://forms.gle/EiKwdW8fZqUh1fqy5
Exercise 1. Let A = {0, 2, 4, 6, 8}, B = {0, 3, 6, 9, 12}, and C = {0, 4, 8, 12, 16}.
1. Please write down the numbers in different color blocks in the Venn diagram below.
2. Find the elements in:
• (A ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ C), A ∩ (B ∪ C)
• (A ∪ B) ∩ (A ∪ C), A ∪ (B ∩ C)
3. What do you find?

Group Work 1 (DeMorgan’s Laws, 8 min). Identify, in a Venn Diagram, the set (A ∪ B)c , Ac ∩ B c .

4 Basic Probability
Group Work 2 (Relate set theory to probability, 10 min). Based on a survey on a group of 100 people,
we have found that 50 people like Pisco, and 20 people like both Pisco and Aguardiente, and 40 people dislike
both. How many people like Aguardiente?

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 1. Indicate on a Venn Diagram the number of people who like Aguardiente.
2. If you randomly pick one person out of the 100 people above, please calculate the probability that the
person likes Aguardiente.
(Hint) To calculate the probability, please follow the steps below:
• Define the sample space.
• Define the event.
• Identify the number of elements in each.
• To find the probability of the event, divide the number of elements in the event by the number of
elements in the sample space.

5 Probability Axioms
Poll 3 (Probability, 5 min). For each of the following assumptions on the pair of events A, B, indicate
whether P(A) ≥ P(B), P(A) ≤ P(B), P(A) = P(B), or none of these (it depends on the situation).
1. A ⊂ B
2. A ∩ B = ∅
3. A ⊆ B and B ⊆ A
4. A ∪ B = Ω and A ∩ B = ∅
5. B ∩ Ac = ∅
https://forms.gle/9ci2UpFhd46tHX8r7
Exercise 2. Let A1 , A2 , A be events (Ω is some arbitrary sample space.) Assume that if the events A1 and
A2 occur simultaneously, then A is guaranteed to occur.
• What does the assumption mean in Set-Theoretic Notation?
• Prove that P (A) ≥ P (A1 ) + P (A2 ) − 1.

6 Conditional Probability
Poll 4 (Conditional Probability, 8 min). Suppose we roll a fair die (all six outcomes equally likely).
• What is the probability that the outcome is 4?
• If I tell you the outcome is even number in advance, then what is the probability that the outcome is 4?
• Any difference?
https://forms.gle/T3XV1qmdV98uLSt69
Exercise 3 (Conditional Probability, 10 min). Suppose we roll a fair die (all six outcomes equally likely).
What is the probability that outcome is even number if I tell you in advance that the outcome is larger than
3? Please solve the following problems step by step.

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 • We define the event A = {the outcome is larger than 3}. What is P(A)?
• We define the event B = {the outcome is even number}. What is P(B)?
• Please write down the event A capB. What is P(A ∩ B)?
• We are ready to the final answer! The event we are really interested in is B|A. Please use the
conditional probability formula to calculate P(B|A).
Group Work 3 (Coding, 10 min). When coded messages are sent, there are sometimes errors in transmis-
sion. In particular, Morse code uses ”dots” and ”dashes” which are known to occur in the proportion of 3:4.
This means that for any given symbol, P (dot sent) = 73 and P (dash sent) = 47 . Suppose there is interference
on the transmission line, and with the probability 81 a dot is mistakenly received as a dash, and vice versa.

• If we receive a dot, can we be sure that a dot was sent? In this case, we are really interested in
P(dot sent|dot received). But it is difficult to get the answer directly. So instead please resolve the
following problems step by step.
– Let’s turn around the conditional probability. What is the probability P(dot received|dot sent)?
– From the information in the context, What is the probability P(dot sent)?
– From the information in the context, What is the probability P(dot received)? (Hint: You receive
a dot because either someone really send you a dot or he/she intended to send you a dash but a
mistake happen in the transmission line.)
– We are ready to the final answer! Please use Bayes rule to derive P(dot sent|dot received).

7 Independence
Exercise 4 (Dice probability, 8 min). What is the probability in the event that we could throw 2 rolls of a
die but without any six? (Hint: Set theory, independence)
Exercise 5 (Independence and Complements, 8 min). If A and B are independent events, please verify the
following statements are true.
• A and B c are independent.
• Ac and B are independent.
• Ac and B c are independent.