Table 1 : Annual Sales Data for ASPL last year (Volume, in '000 pkts)

North South East West Case : Reward Distribution at Atomi

316 203 180 109
375 264 240 199
Rahul was sitting in his office, o
362 320 370 250 contemplating if his Zonal Head of S
395 235 7 204 changing performance this year, by
302 456 242 251 Performance Bonus, for the third yea
Rs. 8.0 crores w
110 206 363 118
351 301 129 398
301 125 188 49
125 151 199 306
205 253 308 153 Amongst the 4 zones, North Zone
351 276 149 182 Sales Pvt Ltd. (ASPL) until arou
23 171 314 306 manufacture and sale of branded
company about 5 years ago, as
310 324 43 105 following a combination of v
362 165 254 178 simultaneously knocking off contr
304 267 296 313 Saath, Sabka Unnati" is the mantr
372 116 312 205 proposition by any means, but a c
North Zone turn the tide in their fa
294 200 255 490 the latest zone-wise results seem t
299 215 220 175 zone-wise sales performance of
325 156 180 260 Table
110 234 265 95
305 370 59 255
284 300 262 153
306 270 447 249
304 260 456 203 Much like the North zone, the other
However their understanding of the
251 234 300 433 their prevailing contexts lead to diffe
302 267 265 267 while it was natural for dealers t
54 255 275 499 performance (irrespective of prevaili
own perception of strengths, weaknes
405 376 399 210 their boss Rahul on these aspects, w
275 67 233 110 di
310 300 251 355
297 288 268 97
111 200 256 295
Rahul kept thinking hard on the p
208 235 278 245 wondering how he will confront his ZS
194 202 193 113 Bonus as he was certain Ashish from
298 220 288 88 However he also did not rule out the
on bonus sharing, based on their ow
210 257 350 110 ZSM's over to Mum
251 302 176 176
199 230
124 308 Qtn: What should Rahul do?
115 160
290 199
286 226
313 181
226 226
314 325
310 143
56 122
237 241
209 347
216 168
55 226
16 423
218
129
426
249 244 247 222
 ward Distribution at Atomic Sales Pvt. Ltd. ᵵ

hul was sitting in his office, on a Friday morning, with the TOI in his hand. He was
plating if his Zonal Head of Sales of North, Ashish Arora would also turn in with a game
ng performance this year, by notching up the highest share of National Annual Dealer
ance Bonus, for the third year in a row. The winning amount this year, was a whopping
Rs. 8.0 crores which was duly ratified by the Board.

t the 4 zones, North Zone was in fact one of the laggards in the company Atomic
es Pvt Ltd. (ASPL) until around 3 years ago. The company was involved in the
acture and sale of branded soyabean nuggets. However, after Rahul joined the
any about 5 years ago, as VP-Sales, he has been trying to push his strategy of
llowing a combination of vigorously supporting promising dealers and also
neously knocking off contracts of non-performing dealers. Rahul believed "Sabka
abka Unnati" is the mantra to success. Knocking off contracts was never an easy
tion by any means, but a careful and bold implementation of the same, enabled
ne turn the tide in their favor for these past three years. And according to Rahul,
t zone-wise results seem to have again pointed to the same growth. Data on the
ise sales performance of the company's 181 dealers across 4 Zones is given in
Table 1 on the next worksheet.

ke the North zone, the other three Zones also tried their hand with Rahul's measures.
r their understanding of their own markets, the growing dealer power at local levels &
vailing contexts lead to differential kinds of results and interpretations. In this context,
le it was natural for dealers to still expect rewards based only on their actual sales
ance (irrespective of prevailing concerns, or scope of growth in the future), it was their
eption of strengths, weaknesses in terms of sales performance, versus the perception of
oss Rahul on these aspects, which often stood in the way, particularly when it came to
dividing annual bonuses.

l kept thinking hard on the potential outcome while distributing the bonus. He kept
g how he will confront his ZSM's as he announces the scheme for distribution of Annual
s he was certain Ashish from North Zone will again be the reckoning for a large share.
r he also did not rule out the possibility of his other 3 ZSM's strongly voicing their views
s sharing, based on their own 'idea' of performance. To settle all this, Rahul called his 4
ZSM's over to Mumbai for a meeting this Monday June 27th.

t should Rahul do?

 Player Team Runs Avg SR
1 AB de Villiers Royal Challengers Bangalore 442 44.20 154.00
2 Ajinkya Rahane Rajasthan Royals 393 32.75 137.89
3 Akshdeep Nath Royal Challengers Bangalore 61 12.20 107.01
4 Ambati Rayudu Chennai Super Kings 282 23.50 93.06
5 Andre Russell Kolkata Knight Riders 510 56.66 204.81
6 Axar Patel Royal Challengers Bangalore 110 18.33 125.00
7 Ben Stokes Rajasthan Royals 123 20.50 124.24
8 Bhuvneshwar Kumar Sunrisers Hyderabad 12 4.00 63.15
9 Chris Gayle Kings XI Punjab 490 40.83 153.60
10 Chris Lynn Kolkata Knight Riders 405 31.15 139.65
11 Chris Morris Delhi Capitals 32 5.33 86.48
12 Colin Ingram Delhi Capitals 184 18.40 119.48
13 David Warner Sunrisers Hyderabad 692 69.20 143.86
14 David Miller Kings XI Punjab 213 26.62 129.87
15 Deepak Hooda Sunrisers Hyderabad 64 10.66 101.58
16 Dinesh Karthik Kolkata Knight Riders 253 31.62 146.24
17 Dwayne Bravo Chennai Super Kings 80 16.00 121.21
18 Faf du Plessis Chennai Super Kings 396 36.00 123.36
19 Hardik Pandya Mumbai Indians 402 44.66 191.42
20 Ishan Kishan Mumbai Indians 101 16.83 101.00
21 Jofra Archer Rajasthan Royals 67 33.50 167.50
22 Jonny Bairstow Sunrisers Hyderabad 445 55.62 157.24
23 Jos Buttler Rajasthan Royals 311 38.87 151.70
24 Kane Williamson Sunrisers Hyderabad 156 22.28 120.00
25 Kedar Jadhav Chennai Super Kings 162 18.00 95.85
26 Keemo Paul Rajasthan Royals 18 3.60 75.00
27 Kieron Pollard Mumbai Indians 279 34.87 156.74
28 KL Rahul Kings XI Punjab 593 53.90 135.38
29 Krunal Pandya Mumbai Indians 183 16.63 122.00
30 Mandeep Singh Kings XI Punjab 165 41.25 137.50
31 Manish Pandey Sunrisers Hyderabad 344 43.00 130.79
32 Marcus Stoinis Royal Challengers Bangalore 211 52.75 135.25
33 Mayank Agarwal Kings XI Punjab 332 25.53 141.88
34 Moeen Ali Royal Challengers Bangalore 220 27.50 165.41
35 Mohammad Nabi Sunrisers Hyderabad 115 19.16 151.31
36 MS Dhoni Chennai Super Kings 416 83.20 134.62
37 Nicholas Pooran Kings XI Punjab 168 28.00 157.00
38 Nitish Rana Kolkata Knight Riders 344 34.40 146.38
39 Parthiv Patel Royal Challengers Bangalore 373 26.64 139.17
40 Piyush Chawla Kolkata Knight Riders 42 14.00 113.51
41 Prithvi Shaw Delhi Capitals 353 22.06 133.71
42 Quinton de Kock Mumbai Indians 529 35.26 132.91
43 Rahul Tripathi Rajasthan Royals 141 23.50 119.49
44 Rashid Khan Sunrisers Hyderabad 34 6.80 147.82
45 Ravichandran AshwinKings XI Punjab 42 8.40 150.00
46 Ravindra Jadeja Chennai Super Kings 106 35.33 120.45
47 Rishabh Pant Delhi Capitals 488 37.53 162.66
48 Riyan Parag Rajasthan Royals 160 32.00 126.98
49 Robin Uthappa Kolkata Knight Riders 282 31.33 115.10
50 Rohit Sharma Mumbai Indians 405 28.92 128.57
51 Sam Curran Kings XI Punjab 95 23.75 172.72
52 Sanju Samson Rajasthan Royals 342 34.20 148.69
55 Sarfaraz Khan Kings XI Punjab 180 45.00 125.87
56 Shane Watson Chennai Super Kings 398 23.41 127.56
57 Sherfane Rutherford Delhi Capitals 73 14.60 135.18
60 Shikhar Dhawan Delhi Capitals 521 34.73 135.67
61 Shimron Hetmyer Royal Challengers Bangalore 90 18.00 123.28
63 Shreyas Gopal Rajasthan Royals 63 15.75 136.95
64 Shreyas Iyer Delhi Capitals 463 30.86 119.94
65 Shubman Gill Kolkata Knight Riders 296 32.88 124.36
67 Steve Smith Rajasthan Royals 319 39.87 116.00
68 Stuart Binny Rajasthan Royals 70 23.33 175.00
71 Sunil Narine Kolkata Knight Riders 143 17.87 166.27
72 Suresh Raina Chennai Super Kings 383 23.93 121.97
74 Suryakumar Yadav Mumbai Indians 424 32.61 130.86
76 Umesh Yadav Kolkata Knight Riders 25 12.50 100.00
77 Vijay Shankar Sunrisers Hyderabad 244 20.33 126.42
80 Virat Kohli Royal Challengers Bangalore 464 33.14 141.46
84 Wriddhiman Saha Sunrisers Hyderabad 86 17.20 162.26
92 Yusuf Pathan Sunrisers Hyderabad 40 13.33 88.88
Hundreds Fifties Fours Sixes Salary
0 5 31 26 1.71875 Note: Avg = average; SR = strike rate; salaries i
1 1 45 9 0.62500
0 0 5 2 0.51430 What can you infer from the data? Summarise it
0 1 20 7 0.34375
0 4 31 52 1.32813
0 0 10 3 0.71430
0 0 8 4 1.95313
0 0 1 0 1.32813
0 4 45 34 0.31250
0 4 41 22 1.50000
0 0 1 2 1.71875
0 0 20 5 0.91430
1 8 57 21 1.95313
0 1 19 7 0.46875
0 0 5 1 0.56250
0 2 22 14 1.15625
0 0 6 3 1.00000
0 3 36 15 0.25000
0 1 28 29 1.71875
0 0 8 4 0.96875
0 0 4 4 1.12500
1 2 48 18 0.31430
0 3 38 14 0.68750
0 1 12 5 0.46875
0 1 19 3 1.21875
0 0 1 1 0.07140
0 1 14 22 0.84375
1 6 49 25 1.71875
0 0 18 5 1.37500
0 0 10 4 0.21875
0 3 34 6 1.71875
0 0 14 10 0.96875
0 2 26 14 0.15625
0 2 16 17 0.26563
0 0 8 7 0.15625
0 3 22 23 2.34375
0 0 10 14 0.60000
0 3 27 21 0.53125
0 2 48 10 0.26563
0 0 4 2 0.65625
0 2 45 9 0.18750
0 4 45 25 0.43750
0 1 13 2 0.53125
0 0 2 2 1.40625
0 0 3 3 1.18750
0 0 7 4 1.09375
0 3 37 27 2.34375
0 1 17 5 0.02860
0 1 28 10 1.00000
0 2 52 10 2.34375
0 1 13 3 1.02860
1 0 28 13 1.25000
0 1 19 4 0.03570
0 3 42 20 0.62500
0 0 2 7 0.28570
0 5 64 11 0.81250
0 1 4 7 0.60000
0 0 8 1 0.03125
0 3 41 14 1.09375
0 3 21 10 0.28125
0 3 30 4 1.95313
0 0 5 4 0.07813
0 0 17 9 1.95313
0 3 45 9 1.71875
0 2 45 10 0.50000
0 0 3 1 0.65625
0 0 11 12 0.50000
1 2 46 13 2.65625
0 0 13 1 0.17140
0 0 1 1 0.29688
 SR = strike rate; salaries in US$ million

om the data? Summarise it and present in a meanningful way

 Critical at Critical at
admission_KB admission_NV
Sl number Kolkilaben (Yes/No) Sl number Nanavati (Yes/No)
1 survived No 1 Survived No
2 survived No 2 Survived No
3 survived No 3 Survived No
4 survived No 4 Survived No
5 survived No 5 Survived No
6 survived No 6 Survived No
7 survived No 7 Survived No
8 survived No 8 Survived No
9 survived No 9 Survived No
10 survived No 10 Survived No
11 survived No 11 Survived No
12 survived No 12 Survived No
13 survived No 13 Survived No
14 survived No 14 Survived No
15 survived No 15 Survived Yes
16 survived No 16 Colapsed Yes
17 survived No 17 Colapsed Yes
18 survived No 18 Colapsed Yes
19 survived Yes 19 Colapsed Yes
20 survived Yes 20 Colapsed Yes
21 survived Yes 21 Colapsed Yes
22 Colapsed Yes 22 Colapsed Yes
23 Colapsed Yes 23 Colapsed Yes
24 Colapsed Yes 24 Colapsed Yes
25 Colapsed Yes 25 Colapsed Yes
26 Colapsed Yes 26 Survived Yes
27 Colapsed Yes 27 Survived Yes
28 Colapsed Yes 28 Survived Yes
29 Colapsed No 29 Survived Yes
30 Colapsed No 30 Survived Yes
31 Colapsed No 31 Survived Yes
32 Survived No 32 Survived Yes
33 Survived No 33 Survived Yes
34 Survived No 34 Survived Yes
35 Survived No 35 Survived Yes
36 Survived No 36 Survived Yes
37 Survived No 37 Survived Yes
38 Survived No 38 Survived Yes
39 Survived No 39 Survived Yes
40 Survived No 40 Colapsed Yes
41 Survived No 41 Colapsed Yes
42 Survived No 42 Colapsed Yes
43 Survived No 43 Colapsed Yes
44 Survived No 44 Colapsed Yes
45 Survived No 45 Colapsed Yes
46 Survived No 46 Colapsed Yes
47 Survived No 47 Colapsed Yes
48 Survived No 48 Colapsed Yes
49 Survived No 49 Colapsed No
50 Survived No 50 Survived Yes
51 Survived No 51 Survived Yes
52 Survived No 52 Survived Yes
53 Survived No 53 Survived Yes
54 Survived No 54 Survived Yes
55 Survived No 55 Survived Yes
56 Survived No 56 Survived No
57 Survived No 57 Survived No
58 Survived No 58 Survived No
59 Survived No 59 Survived No
60 Survived No 60 Survived No
61 Survived No 61 Survived No
62 Survived No 62 Survived No
63 Survived No 63 Survived No
64 Survived No 64 Survived No
65 Survived No 65 Survived No
66 Survived No 66 Survived No
67 Survived No 67 Survived No
68 Survived No 68 Survived No
69 Survived No 69 Survived No
70 Survived No 70 Survived No
71 Survived No 71 Survived No
72 Survived No 72 Survived No
73 Survived No 73 Survived No
74 Survived No 74 Survived No
75 Survived No 75 Survived No
76 Survived No 76 Survived No
77 Survived No 77 Survived No
78 Survived No 78 Survived No
79 Survived No 79 Survived No
80 Survived No 80 Survived No
81 Survived No 81 Survived No
82 Survived No 82 Survived No
83 Survived No 83 Survived No
84 Survived No 84 Survived No
85 Survived No 85 Survived No
86 Survived No 86 Survived No
87 Survived No 87 Survived No
 88 Survived No 88 Survived No
89 Survived No 89 Survived No
90 Survived No 90 Survived No
91 Survived No 91 Survived No
92 Survived No 92 Survived No
93 Survived No 93 Survived No
94 Survived No 94 Survived No
95 Survived No 95 Survived No
96 Survived No 96 Survived No
97 Survived No 97 Survived No
98 Survived No 98 Survived No
99 Survived No 99 Survived No
100 Survived No 100 Survived No
 Last couple of days Grandpa of your best friend is seriously ill and required an immediate
surgery. The conditions were deteriorating fast and the doctor suggested not to wase time.
The selection of a hospital is a must and the two good hospitals in the vicinity were Kokilaben
and Max Nanavati. You got access to the surgery and survival data of both the hospitals (last
100 patients). If the cost of surgery and other external factors are similar to both the
hospitals, which one you would suggest your friend?
During WWII Americans realised that there were a lot of jets that were
hit by the German bullets. The simple answer was to put armour on the
jets. The question was where should the Americans put the armour?
Covering the enire body will reduce its manuverability and make it an
easy target to Germans. Coveing less wll expose it to the bullets and
thus will be end of the fighter jet.

Abraham Wald termed it "Survivorship bias"