Informatics in Medicine Unlocked 18 (2020) 100293

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Informatics in Medicine Unlocked

journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/imu

Epidemic model analyzed via particle swarm optimization based homotopy

perturbation method
M.J. Mahmoodabadi
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sirjan University of Technology, Sirjan, Iran

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: In this paper, the problem of the spread of a non-fatal disease in a population known as a nonlinear epidemic
Homotopy perturbation method model is solved using an Optimized Homotopy Perturbation Method (OHPM). In order to discretize the gov­
Particle swarm optimization erning nonlinear differential equations, the Finite Difference Method (FDM) is applied to approximate the de­
Optimized homotopy perturbation method
rivatives of the problem and the penalty method is employed to satisfy the initial conditions. The unknown nodal
Epidemic model
Nonlinear differential equations
values of the discretized objective function are regarded as the design variables and would be found by the
Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. In order to find more accurate results, the solution proposed by
the Homotopy Perturbation Method (HPM) is considered as the global best particle of PSO at the first iteration of
the optimization process, and this idea is named the Optimized Homotopy Perturbation Method (OHPM). The
results obtained by the introduced methodology are associated with those of the HPM, PSO, and a numerical
method to assess the performance of the OHPM.

1. Introduction
Infectious diseases, which are caused by pathogens, are a detriment
to the public health. It is difficult to analyze the intrinsic rules of diseases
through human trials; thus qualitative and quantitative analyses could
in theory be an important method. Hence, epidemic models, as impor­
tant tools to understand the spread and control of infectious diseases,
have attracted many researchers in the recent years. For instance, Liu
and Zhong studied modeling and analyzing the dynamic spreading of the
epidemic by a network eigenvalue method and mainly focuses on
studying the influence of network characteristics on malware spreading
[1]. Fan et al. proposed two spatio-temporal epidemic network models
based on popularity and similarity optimization (PSO), in which new
connections take both popularity and similarity into account [2]. Khan
et al. described the formulation of a hepatitis B epidemic model with
saturated incidence rate and discussed the basic properties (existence of
positive solutions and positively invariant set etc.) to show the mathe­
matical as well as the biological feasibility [3]. Further, Wei et al.
investigated the dynamics of the stochastically perturbed Heroin
epidemic model under non-degenerate noises devoted to discern long
time dynamics and proved it to have a unique global positive solution
[4]. Cao et al. examined a stochastic epidemic model with quarantine
and standard incidence and consider the existence and uniqueness of the
global positive solution to the stochastic system. Further, they
concluded that the large noise can make the disease die out exponen­
tially, and the stationary distribution will exist under certain conditions
[5]. Zhang et al. presented epidemic dynamics in an adaptive network
where the susceptible are able to avoid contact with the infectious by
rewiring their network connections. They depicted that such rewiring of
the local connections changes the topology of the network, and inevi­
tably has a profound effect on the transmission of the disease, which in
turn influences the rewiring process [6]. Moreover, the occurrence of a
sustained periodic solution via the Hopf bifurcation in an age-structured
epidemic model under the assumption that the transmission rate de­
pends on the age of infective individuals and the product of the trans­
mission rate were studied by Kuniya [7]. Besides, Zhang et al.
investigated and studied the backward bifurcation in an especial type of
the stage-structured epidemic models [8]. Buonomo and Marca explored
the qualitative dynamics of a vaccine-preventable disease, when the
healthy individuals in a given community are subject to two coexisting
threats: the imperfection of the vaccine and the voluntary (non-)
adherence to immunization programs [9]. Finally, a numerical method
based on the Magnus series expansion and its second-order convergence
were inspected by Csomo �s to a system of quasilinear delay equations
[10].
Besides, a lot of analytical and numerical approaches have been
introduced to solve these kind of the nonlinear differential equations, to
name but a few, Monotone positive approaches [11], Logistic function

E-mail address: mahmoodabadi@sirjantech.ac.ir.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.imu.2020.100293
Received 14 November 2019; Received in revised form 12 January 2020; Accepted 12 January 2020
Available online 13 January 2020
2352-9148/© 2020 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
M.J. Mahmoodabadi Informatics in Medicine Unlocked 18 (2020) 100293

method [12], improved Taylor matrix method [13], Liouvillian solu­

dξ
tions [14], coupled homotopy-variational approach [15], least squares ¼ γνðΤÞ; (3)
dΤ
homotopy perturbation method [16], collocation method based on
Bessel functions [17], CAS Picard method [18], Monotone solutions with the following initial conditions:
[19], wavelet Galerkin method [20], and homotopy based numerical
method [21,22]. μð0Þ ¼ μ0 ; νð0Þ ¼ ν0 and ξð0Þ ¼ ξ0 ; (4)
But, most of these methods display only rough solutions and need a
high number of iterations for the solution process. The motivation of this where, μðTÞ, νðTÞ and ξðTÞ respectively represent susceptible, infective
paper is to combine an analytical approach with a numerical one, and immune populations. Moreover, β and γ are constant values related
respectively the HPM [23] and the PSO [24], to solve the nonlinear to the considered statistical society, and Τ denotes time.
problem of the spread of a non-fatal disease in a population. To reach
this goal, the FDM is utilized to estimate the derivatives, and the penalty 3. Particle swarm optimization and discretization of the
method is applied to satisfy the initial conditions of the problem. governing equations
Furthermore, the PSO algorithm is exploited to find the unknown nodal
values of the discretized objective function while the solution obtained In the particle swarm optimization algorithm, the position of each
by the HPM is considered as the global best particle at the first iteration particle is enhanced with respect to its previous best position and the
of the optimization process. The success and effectiveness of the intro­ best position of the population. The mathematical equations of the PSO
duced methodology are shown via comparing its results with those of could be generally represented as follows [24]:
the traditional schemes and a numerical method. ! ! �! ! !
V i ðit þ 1Þ ¼ G V i ðitÞ þ c1 R1 X pbesti ðitÞ X i ðitÞ
�
The particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm was initially �! ! ! �
introduced by Kennedy and Eberhart in 1995 via simulation of the bird þ c2 R2 X gbest ðitÞ X i ðitÞ ; (5)
flock and fish school. This algorithm has simple mathematics, a small
! ! !
number of parameters to adjust, high convergance speed and good ac­ X i ðit þ 1Þ ¼ X i ðitÞ þ V i ðit þ 1Þ; (6)
curacy. These features have made the PSO algorithm a popular opti­
mization technique in many science and technology fields, especially in ! !
where, X i ðitÞ and V i ðitÞ describe the position and velocity of particle i at
medical research. For instance, Zhang et al. introduced an optimized certain iteration it, respectively. Moreover, c1 and c2 are coefficients that
Nash nonlinear grey Bernoulli model based on particle swarm optimi­ express the tendency of the particle to the personal and social successes,
zation and its application in prediction of the incidence of Hepatitis B in �! �!
respectively. R1 and R2 are random vectors in interval [0,1], and G
Xinjiang, China [25]. A novel particle swarm optimized namely inertia weight illustrates the effect of the particle velocity at the
one-dimensional convolutional neural network with support vector ! !
machine architecture was proposed for real-time detection and classi­ previous iteration on the next one. Furthermore, X pbesti ðitÞ and X gbest ðitÞ
fication of diseases by Navaneeth and Suchetha [26]. Kartheeswaran are the personal and global best positions of the particle i and the swarm,
and Durairaj implemented the sequential and parallel data decomposi­ respectively [24]. In this work, the initial assumptions of the PSO al­
tion strategies on a particle swarm optimization algorithm based arti­ gorithm are as follows. The number of particles in the initial population
ficial neural network weights optimization for medical imaging is set at 200; the maximum number of iterations is fixed at 20000; the
modality [27]. An intelligent hyper framework was proposed to recog­ personal success coefficient is c1 ¼ 3; the social success coefficient is
nize protein folds from its amino acid sequence by Abbasi et al. [28]. c2 ¼ 3; and the inertia weight G is calculated through an adaptive
Kumar Satapathy et al. suggested a new modified PSO algorithm to more relation [35].
efficiently train a type of neural network to classify epileptic seizures The considered objective function for minimization by the PSO is
[29]. A PSO based diagnostic model was implemented and validated for obtained via discretization of the governing equation as follows. Sup­
the early detection and accurate prediction of dengue fever by Gambhir pose that Ti denotes ith nodal position on the problem domain, and
et al. [30]. Joloudari et al. studied a systematic effort for medical data μn ðTi Þ, νn ðTi Þ and ξn ðTi Þ respectively represent the approximate pop­
mining of liver disease on the UCI dataset via particle swarm optimi­ ulations of the susceptible, infective and immune at Ti . If the central
zation [31]. A fuzzy mutual information based grouping and the PSO FDM is used for discretization of the derivatives, then Eqs. (1)–(3) could
method was developed by Pal et al. for selection of miRNAs in cancer be rewritten for ith node as follows.
[32]. Subasi presented a novel PSO model to improve the signal classi­ �
μn ðTiþ1 Þ μn ðTi 1 Þ ¼ 2ðTiþ1 Ti 1 Þðβμn ðTi Þνn ðTi ÞÞ
fication accuracy for diagnosis of neuromuscular disorders [33]. (7)
μ n ¼ μn ðTiþ1 Þ μn ðTi 1 Þ þ 2ðTiþ1 Ti 1 Þðβμn ðTi Þνn ðTi ÞÞ
b
The rest of the paper is structured as follows. Section 2 states the
�
governing equations of the disease progress problem. Section 3 briefly νn ðTiþ1 Þ νn ðTi 1 Þ ¼ 2ðTiþ1 Ti 1 Þðβμn ðTi Þνn ðTi Þ γνn ðTi ÞÞ
introduces the PSO and the designed objective function. The HPM and (8)
ν n ¼ νn ðTiþ1 Þ νn ðTi 1 Þ 2ðTiþ1 Ti 1 Þðβμn ðTi Þνn ðTi Þ γνn ðTi ÞÞ
b
the analytical solution of the problem are discussed in Section 4. Section
�
5 presents the application of the proposed scheme on the disease prog­ ξn ðTiþ1 Þ ξn ðTi 1 Þ ¼ 2ðTiþ1 Ti 1 Þðγνn ðTi ÞÞ
(9)
ress problem and displays the comparison of the numerical results. b
ξ n ¼ ξn ðTiþ1 Þ ξn ðTi 1 Þ 2ðTiþ1 Ti 1 Þðγνn ðTi ÞÞ
Finally, Section 6 concludes the paper.
with the initial conditions mentioned in Eq. (4). A summation of the
2. Governing equations absolute values of these equations on all nodal points creates the first
part of the objective function.
The governing equations of the disease progress problem could be
X
M
stated as follows [34]: μ n j þ jbν n j þ jbξ n jg ¼ 0;
fjb (10)
i¼1
dμ
¼ βμðΤÞνðΤÞ; (1)
dΤ where, M is the number of nodes. In order to impose the boundary
conditions:
dν
¼ βμðΤÞνðΤÞ γνðΤÞ; (2)
dΤ

2
M.J. Mahmoodabadi Informatics in Medicine Unlocked 18 (2020) 100293

300 300
OHPM OHPM
PSO-FVM PSO-FVM
250 250
Global Best Position

Global Best Position

200 200

150 150

100 100

50 50

0 0
0.5 1 1.5 2 0.5 1 1.5 2
Iteration x 10
4 Iteration x 10
4

(a) (b)

400 400
OHPM OHPM
350 PSO-FVM 350 PSO-FVM

300 300
Global Best Position

Global Best Position

250 250

200 200

150 150

100 100

50 50

0 0
0.5 1 1.5 2 0.5 1 1.5 2
Iteration x 10
4
Iteration x 10
4

(c) (d)

Fig. 1. Convergence trajectories of the OHPM and PSO-FVM for (a) 5, (b) 6, (c) 9 and (d) 11 nodal points.

X
M � �
μ n j þ jbν n j þ jbξ n jg þ Pfjμn ðT1 Þ
fjb μ0 j þ jνn ðT1 Þ ν0 j þ jξn ðT1 Þ ξ0 jg ¼ 0; θ σ; ∂σ=∂n ¼ 0; ρ 2 Γ; (13)
i¼1

(11)
where η represents a general differential operator, θ dignifies a boundary
where, P≫1 is the penalty parameter and here, set at P ¼ 100. It is operator, φðρÞ characterizes a known analytical function, Γ symbolizes
noticeable that the forward FDM and backward FDM are implemented the boundary of domain Ω and ∂=∂n denotes differentiation along the
for the first and end nodal points, respectively. normal drawn outwards from Ω. Always, it is possible to divide operator
η into linear Λ and nonlinear Δ parts. Hence, Equation (12) could be
4. Homotopy perturbation method and the analytical solution of rewritten as follows:
the problem
ΛðσÞ þ ΔðσÞ φðρÞ ¼ 0: (14)
The homotopy perturbation method as a combination of the classical A homotopy of Equation (14) is constructed with εðρ; λÞ : Ω � ½0; 1�→
perturbation technique and homotopy scheme is initially introduced by R which satisfies
He in 1999 for solving nonlinear differential equations as [36]:
ψ ðε; λÞ ¼ ð1 λÞΛðεÞ Λðσ0 Þ þ λðηðεÞ φðρÞ ¼ 0; λε½0; 1�; ρ 2 Ω; (15)
ηðσ Þ φðρÞ ¼ 0; ρ 2 Ω; (12)
which is equivalent to
with the following boundary condition:

3
M.J. Mahmoodabadi Informatics in Medicine Unlocked 18 (2020) 100293

20 25
PSO-FVM PSO-FVM
HPM 20 HPM
15
OHPM OHPM
RKM 15 RKM

Susceptible Population ( )
Susceptible Population ( )

10
10
5
5
0
0

-5
-5

-10 -10

-15 -15
0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10
Time (T) Time (T)

(a) (b)

20 20
PSO-FVM PSO-FVM
HPM HPM
15 15
OHPM OHPM
RKM RKM
Susceptible Population ( )
Susceptible Population ( )

10
10

5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10

-10
-15
0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10
Time (T) Time (T)

(c) (d)

Fig. 2. Susceptible population obtained by the PSO-FVM, HPM [23], OHPM and RKM [37] for (a) 5, (b) 6, (c) 9 and (d) 11 nodal points.

ψ ðε; λÞ ¼ ΛðεÞ Λðσ0 Þ þ λΛðσ0 Þ þ ΔðεÞ φðρÞ ¼ 0; (16) In the following, the implementation of the HPM to the nonlinear
differential equation of the epidemic model presented in Ref. [23] is
where, λ 2 ½0; 1� represents an embedding parameter, and σ 0 signifies an explained.
initial guess that meets the boundary conditions. It is obvious from the
ð1 λÞð_ε1 μ_ 0 Þ þ λð_ε1 þ βε1 ε2 Þ ¼ 0; (20)
above equations that
ψ ðε; 0Þ ¼ ΛðεÞ Λðσ0 Þ ¼ 0; ψ ðε; 1Þ ¼ ηðεÞ φðρÞ ¼ 0: (17) ð1 λÞð_ε2 ν_ 0 Þ þ λð_ε2 βε1 ε2 þ γ ε2 Þ ¼ 0; (21)

In the considered approach, it is assumed that the solution of

ð1 λÞð_ε3 ζ_ 0 Þ þ λð_ε3 γ ε2 Þ ¼ 0; (22)
Equations (16) and (17) can be expressed as

ε ¼ ε0 þ λε1 þ λ2 ε2 þ …: (18) with the following initial approximations:

Moreover, the estimated solution of the governing equation is ε1;0 ðTÞ ¼ μ0 ; (23)
regarded as:
ε2;0 ðTÞ ¼ ν0 ; (24)
u ¼ limε ¼ ε0 þ ε1 þ ε2 þ …: (19)
λ→1
ε3;0 ðTÞ ¼ ζ0 ; (25)

4
M.J. Mahmoodabadi Informatics in Medicine Unlocked 18 (2020) 100293

45 45
PSO-FVM PSO-FVM
HPM HPM
40
40 OHPM OHPM
RKM RKM
Infectiive Population ( )
35

Infectiive Population ( )
35

30
30
25
25
20

20
15

15 10
0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10
Time (T) Time (T)

(a) (b)

45 45
PSO-FVM PSO-FVM
HPM 40 HPM
40
OHPM OHPM
RKM 35 RKM
35
Infectiive Population ( )

Infectiive Population ( )

30
30
25
25
20
20
15

15 10

10 5
0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10
Time (T) Time (T)

(c) (d)

Fig. 3. Infective population obtained by the PSO-FVM, HPM [23], OHPM and RKM [37] for (a) 5, (b) 6, (c) 9 and (d) 11 nodal points.

and ð_ε2;1 βμ0 ν0 þ γ ν0 Þ λ þ ε_ 2;2

�
βμ0 ε2;1 þ γε2;1 þ β2 μ0 ν20 T λ2
�
ε1 ¼ ε1;0 þ λε1;1 þ λ2 ε1;2 þ λ3 ε1;3 þ …; (26) þ ε_ 2;3 βν0 ε1;2 þ γε2;2 þ β2 μ0 ν0 T ε2;1 βμ0 ε2;2 λ3 þ …
¼ 0; (30)
ε2 ¼ ε2;0 þ λε2;1 þ λ2 ε2;2 þ λ3 ε2;3 þ …; (27)
�
ð_ε3;1 γ ν0 Þλ þ ε_ 3;2 γβμ0 ν0 T þ γ2 ν0 T λ2
ε3 ¼ ε3;0 þ λε3;1 þ λ2 ε3;2 þ λ3 ε3;3 þ …; (28) � �
1 1 2 2 1 3
þ ε_ 3;3 þ γβ2 μ0 ν20 T 2 γβ μ0 ν0 T 2 γ ν0 T 2 þ γ 2 βμ0 ν0 T 2 λ3 þ …
where, εi;j ; i; j ¼ 1; 2; 3; …represent the unknown functions. 2 2 2
Substituting Equation (23) through (28) into Equations (20)–(22) and ¼ 0;
rearranging the coefficients of λ powers leads to the following relations. (31)
ð_ε1;1 þ βμ0 ν0 Þ λ þ ð_ε1;2 þ βμ0 ε2;1 þ βν0 ε1;1 Þ λ2 The unknown functions εi;j ðtÞ; i; j ¼ 1; 2; 3 could be obtained
þ ð_ε1;3 þ βν0 ε1;2 þ βε1;1 ε2;1 þ βμ0 ε2;2 Þ λ3 þ … through the following equations.

¼ 0; (29) ε_ 1;1 þ βμ0 ν0 ¼ 0; (32)

ε_ 1;2 þ βμ0 ε2;1 þ βν0 ε1;1 ¼ 0; (33)

ε_ 1;3 þ βν0 ε1;2 þ βε1;1 ε2;1 þ βμ0 ε2;2 ¼ 0; (34)

5
M.J. Mahmoodabadi Informatics in Medicine Unlocked 18 (2020) 100293

15 15
PSO-FVM PSO-FVM
14.5 HPM 14.5 HPM
OHPM OHPM
14 14
RKM RKM

Immune Population ( )

Immune Population ( )
13.5 13.5

13 13

12.5 12.5

12 12

11.5 11.5

11 11

10.5 10.5

10 10
0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10
Time (T) Time (T)

(a) (b)

15 15
PSO-FVM PSO-FVM
HPM 14.5 HPM
14 OHPM OHPM
14
RKM RKM
Immune Population ( )

Immune Population ( )
13.5
13
13

12 12.5

12
11
11.5

11
10
10.5

9 10
0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10
Time (T) Time (T)

(c) (d)

Fig. 4. Immune population obtained by the PSO-FVM, HPM [23], OHPM and RKM [37] for (a) 5, (b) 6, (c) 9 and (d) 11 nodal points.

Table 1 Table 3
Numerical values related to the susceptible population for ΔT ¼ 1. Numerical values related to the immune population for ΔT ¼ 1.
T PSO-FVM HPM OHPM RKM T PSO-FVM HPM OHPM RKM

1 17.000037 16.983529 17.000037 16.983520 1 10.302451 10.326977 10.301207 10.326978

2 15.601459 14.046996 14.135197 14.046679 2 11.345995 10.706623 10.806572 10.706692
3 14.241936 11.339854 11.581051 11.338933 3 11.500003 11.134195 11.184948 11.134980
4 12.639937 8.954669 9.285353 8.963110 4 11.767871 11.600941 11.649253 11.605230
5 11.955161 6.889140 7.299774 6.965637 5 12.017019 12.093787 12.137658 12.109486
6 10.198456 5.008112 5.726480 5.343932 6 12.292133 12.595020 12.641150 12.639541
7 9.090886 3.005586 4.371647 4.062732 7 12.576763 13.081977 13.168105 13.187753
8 7.703929 0.366739 3.423849 3.070912 8 12.902175 13.526728 13.699256 13.747515
9 6.585621 3.670067 2.534622 2.314115 9 13.227054 13.895767 14.240638 14.313410
10 5.588812 10.151270 1.993665 1.742197 10 13.584044 14.149690 14.782675 14.881171

Table 2 ε_ 2;1 βμ0 ν0 þ γν0 ¼ 0; (35)

Numerical values related to the infective population for ΔT ¼ 1.
ε_ 2;2 βμ0 ε2;1 þ γε2;1 þ β2 μ0 ν20 T ¼ 0; (36)
T PSO-FVM HPM OHPM RKM

1 17.693934 17.689495 17.699782 17.689502 ε_ 2;3 βν0 ε1;2 þ γε2;2 þ β2 μ0 ν0 T ε2;1 βμ0 ε2;2 ¼ 0; (37)
2 8.898461 20.246381 19.074785 20.246628
3 10.531942 22.525951 21.064423 22.526087 ε_ 3;1 γ ν0 ¼ 0; (38)
4 11.477740 24.444390 23.053494 24.431660
5 12.978053 26.017073 24.424092 25.924877
6 14.048613 27.396868 25.641427 27.016527 ε_ 3;2 γβμ0 ν0 T þ γ 2 ν0 T ¼ 0; (39)
7 15.292777 28.912437 26.338564 27.749515
8 16.257284 31.106532 26.814816 28.181573 1 1 2 2 1 3
9 17.202394 34.774300 27.102169 28.372475 ε_ 3;3 þ γβ2 μ0 ν20 T 2 γβ μ0 ν0 T 2 γ ν0 T 2 þ γ2 βμ0 ν0 T 2 ¼ 0: (40)
2 2 2
10 17.842218 41.001580 27.100427 28.376632

6
M.J. Mahmoodabadi
Therefore,
1
μðTÞ ¼ μ0 βμ0 ν0 T βμ ν0 ðβμ0 βν0 γÞT 2
2 0
� assumption.
1
βμ ν0 3ν0 βγ 4μ0 ν0 β2 2βμ0 γ þ β2 μ20 þ γ 2 þ β2 ν20 T 3 ;
6 0
1 �
νðTÞ ¼ ν0 þ ν0 ðβμ0 γÞT þ ν0 2βμ0 γ þ β2 μ20 þ γ 2 μ0 ν0 β2 T 2 þ ν0
2 6
�
4ν0 β3 μ20 þ μ0 ν20 β3 þ 4μ0 ν0 β2 γ þ 3βμ0 γ2 3β2 μ20 γ γ 3 þ β3 μ30 T 3 ;
1 1
ζðTÞ ¼ ζ0 þ γ ν0 T þ γν0 ð γ þ βμ0 ÞT 2 þ γν0
2 6
�
2βμ0 γ þ β2 μ20 þ γ 2 ν0 β2 μ0 T 3 :
5. Numerical results and comparisons
In this section, the introduced methodology based on the PSO and
FDM is applied to analyze the nonlinear epidemic model in two cases. In
the first case, only the random initial population is regarded for the PSO
(this scheme is called PSO-FDM); for the second one, the global best
position of the initial population is formed via the HPM (namely OHPM).
For the numerical simulation, the constant parameters in the gov­
erning equation are considered as β ¼ 0:01 and γ ¼ 0:02; the initial
conditions are respected as μ0 ¼ 20; ν0 ¼ 15 and ξ0 ¼ 10; and the time
domain is supposed from Tmin ¼ 0 to Tmax ¼ 10. With these conditions,
the problem is solved for four different numbers of regular nodal points
as 5, 6, 9 and 11 to investigate the sensitivity of the algorithm. The range
of the design parameters is considered as [0,30]. It is noticeable that 100
runs are conducted and best results for both strategies would be
reported.
The convergence trajectories of the PSO-FDM and OHPM methods
are depicted in Fig. 1 for different numbers of nodal points. It is clear
from these diagrams when the global best position of the initial popu­
lation is formed via the HPM, the algorithm can escape from the local
minimum and successfully converge to the global optimum. Further­
more, the found numerical solutions by these two methods are compared
together and with those of the HPM and Runge-Kutta Method (RKM)
[37] in Figs. 2–4 for the susceptible, infective and immune populations,
respectively. It is noticeable that results of the RKM are obtained via
Solver ode45 at MATLAB R2013a with 41 nodes that are almost near to
the exact solutions. These comparisons obviously depict that the OHPM
has more accuracy for analysis of the nonlinear epidemic model equa­
tion in comparison with the PSO-FVM and HPM. For more visibility, the
numerical values corresponding to the susceptible, infective and im­
mune populations for Tiþ1 Ti ¼ 1 are illustrated in Tables 1–3,
respectively.
6. Conclusions
In this paper, a new numerical method, namely OHPM, was intro­
duced to the problem of the spread of a non-fatal disease in a population
known as a nonlinear epidemic model. Noteworthy ideas and findings of
this research could be presented as follows.
� The FDM was utilized to discrete the derivatives of the equation.
� The penalty parameter was used to impose the initial conditions.
� PSO was successfully applied to find the unknown variables valid in
the prepared governing equation.
� The answers suggested by the HPM are reflected as the global best
position in the first iteration of PSO.
� Simulation results were clarified for a case reported in literature.
� The optimization process diagrams were plotted to show the
convergence of the algorithm.
Informatics in Medicine Unlocked 18 (2020) 100293
� The illustrations of the nonlinear epidemic model problem expressed
the ability of the OHPM for solving the considered nonlinear differ­
ential equations with a great accuracy and without any limiting
(41)
Ethical statement
1
I testify on behalf of all co-authors that
(42) 1) this material has not been published in whole or in part elsewhere;
2) the manuscript is not currently being considered for publication in
another journal;
3) all authors have been personally and actively involved in substantive
(43) work leading to the manuscript, and will hold themselves jointly and
individually responsible for its content.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors have declared no conflict of interest.
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