Example Report Drewry Container Capacity Insight WK2622

Container Capacity Insight
Previously named as Cancelled Sailings Weekly Insight Week | 26 | 2022
Section 1: Container market forecast

Summary analysis East-West trades. A significant drop of peak season to be flat this year with
8% in spot rates is expected on Asia- many shippers placing advanced
Drewry expects effective ship capacity WCNA trade. orders to build inventories ahead of any
to increase in August when compared possible delays.
to July across major East-West trades, The container shipping market is
showing some signs of relief with spot Although the Covid situation in Shanghai
despite a fall of 7% on North Europe-North
freight rates now below long-term is easing, and China’s trade surplus
America trade. A significant 42% increase
contract rates negotiated last year. The once again rising, inland transportation
in capacity will be seen from South Asia
continued downward trend is most likely remains problematic. Truck drivers
to Med. However, this dramatic increase
caused by recent macroeconomic and are still having to comply with strict
could revert as the number of cancelled
geopolitical ‘shocks’ affecting consumer quarantine policies which continue to
sailings may rise in the coming weeks.
confidence and demand in many affect container movements between
Spot rates are forecast to fall in August countries. Drewry expects traditional provinces in China.
when compared to July across major
Ease of access to capacity headhaul (Latest assessment for the next 5 weeks)
Ease of access Ease of access Ease of access Ease of access

to capacity to capacity to capacity to capacity
Transpacific EB Asia-North Europe & Med Transatlantic WB South Asia-North Europe & Med
Source: Drewry Supply Chain Advisors
Container market forecast for the month of August

224
92
80
4
9
-7%
26
$ -4% +6%
North Europe $ -5% +4% West Coast
North North America
24
America 3 $ -8%
64
Med
0% East Coast
6 $ -6% 110 North
Asia
America
44
+3%
6
$ -3% 11
+3% South Asia
$ -5% +5%
18 $ -5%
3
+42%
$ -4%
$ % m-o-m Change of spot freight rates
Total cancelled sailings vs total scheduled sailings % m-o-m Change of effective capacity
Monthly capacity calculation is based on a compilation of weekly capacities of each month, which factors in the cancelled sailings occurring in each week.
In this issue  Cancelled sailings weekly forward outlook by trade lane ��8
Container market forecast�� 1 Year-on-year Analysis��12
Port congestion�� 2 Operational Metrics��15
Best case transit times �� 6 Data Methodology��16
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Drewry Supply Chain Advisors WK 26 | 1
Weekly analysis Container Capacity Insight
Section 2: Port congestion

Port congestion trend analysis ongoing labour negotiations, largely continue to be commonplace across
explains the congestion ‘spike’ seen in North America and Europe; clearly these
As can be seen in the Z-score charts the USEC, particularly New York port. extraordinary market conditions will take
(reflecting the number of standard time to normalise.
Congestion in Asia and Europe is
deviations from pre-Covid region
approaching serious levels, particularly for In those regions with no high-volume
averages of the number of ships
high-volume ports, while congestion for ports, such as Africa, Latin America,
waiting outside selected ports), overall
high-volume ports in the Middle East and port congestion in general has returned
congestion in North America remains
South Asia region is even higher and has to pre-pandemic levels. Oceania is
elevated for large and medium volume
been ‘in the red’ for much of this year. an exception, with medium-volume
ports, while there is some easing for
It is worth noting that despite the fairly ports continuing to suffer from high
smaller volume ports. The coastal shift
recent demand downturn, backlogs congestion.
from USWC to USEC, driven by the
North America: Port congestion Z-score indicators (No. vessels waiting)

No congestion Caution, approaching serious congestion High congestion
20
15
10
Ave Z-score
-5
Week No.
High Low Medium
Note: North America was off-scale during weeks 4-5 & 32-50
Ships waiting less than 4 hours for a berthing window are excluded from the Z-score calculations
Source: Drewry AIS
Asia: Port congestion Z-score indicators (No. vessels waiting)

20
15
10
Ave Z-score
-5
Week No.
High Low Medium
Note: Ships waiting less than 4 hours for a berthing window are excluded from the Z-score calculations
Source: Drewry AIS
Europe: Port congestion Z-score indicators (No. vessels waiting)

20
15
10
Ave Z-score
-5
Week No.
High Low Medium
Source: Drewry AIS
Middle East Indian Sub Continent: Port congestion Z-score indicators (No. vessels waiting)
20
15
10
Ave Z-score
-5
Week No.
High Low Medium
Source: Drewry AIS
Africa: Port congestion Z-score indicators (No. vessels waiting)

20
15
10
Ave Z-score
-5
Week No.
Low Medium
Source: Drewry AIS
Latin America: Port congestion Z-score indicators (No. vessels waiting)

10
6
Ave Z-score
-2
Week No.
Low Medium
Source: Drewry AIS
Oceania: Port congestion Z-score indicators (No. vessels waiting)

20
15
10
Ave Z-score
-5
Week No.
Low Medium
Source: Drewry AIS

Port congestion comparison between neighboring ports
Congestion in Vancouver port has again window falling from around three days in decreased from 26 hours in week 24 to
improved WoW as the average waiting week 24 to one day in week 25. A better 23 hours in week 25. Ningbo port is not
time for a berthing window has fallen from alternative is Los Angeles port where considered a better alternative, despite
around four days in week 24 to around three the average waiting time for a berthing a fall in waiting time of 8% WoW, as
days in week 25. Tacoma port is a better window plunged by 46% WoW to 19 the average waiting time for a berthing
alternative, with negligible waiting time for a hours in week 25. window was 46 hours in week 25, thus
berthing window over the past few weeks. Congestion in Shanghai port has remaining significantly longer than in
Oakland port has improved WoW with once again improved WoW; average Shanghai port.
the average waiting time for a berthing waiting time for a berthing window has
Port congestion proxies, average ship waiting time (hours), Week 25 (20 Jun to 26 Jun)
70
0 128 11 10
31 22
Tacoma Vancouver
Tokyo Yokohama
37 Busan Gwangyang
46
23
28 Baltimor New York
19
Ningbo Shanghai
Los Oakland
Angeles
50
0
Altamira Veracruz
18 23
Port Klang Tanjung Pelepas
21
0
Itajai Santos
24
0
San Antonio Valparaiso 28 22
Brisbane Melbourne
56
36
6 49
29 6
Felixstowe
Southampton Gdansk Gdynia
Antwerp Rotterdam
14 24
Algeciras Valencia
1
19 6
19 21
Casablanca Tanger Med
Alexandria Port Said
14 7
Jawaharlal Mundra
Nehru
46
22
Tema Lagos
26 28
Mombasa Dar Es
Salaam
Note: Ships waiting less than 4 hours for a berthing window are excluded from the average ship waiting time calculations
Source: Drewry AIS
Section 3: Best case transit times

Best case transit times (last port in Asia and first port in WCNA)
The transit time for Transpacific as the pre-Covid benchmark. However, improved, thanks in large part to the
Eastbound cargos has worsened in 2022 after the peak of 38 days in week 7 of easing of port congestion at Los Angeles
compared to 2021 and 2019, which is set this year, the situation has significantly and Long Beach ports.
Best case transit times (last port in Asia and first port in WCNA)
42
35
28
Transit time in days
21
14
7
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
Week No.
2021 2022 Pre-Covid 2019
Source: Drewry AIS
Best case transit times (last port in South East Asia and first port in North Europe)
From the first week of 2022 to week days. During the same period in pre- slower in 2022 when compared to
25, transit time from South East Asia’s pandemic 2019, average transit time 2019 and around 1 day above the 2021
main transhipment ports to North was around 21 days. So far, average average.
Europe reached an average of 26 transit times has been significantly
Best case transit times (last port in South East Asia and first port in North Europe)
35
30
25
20
15
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
Week No.
2021 2022 Pre-Covid 2019
Source: Drewry AIS
Section 3: Best case transit times

Best case transit times (last port in North Europe and first port in ECNA)
While transit time from Hamburg & year, indicating a 60% YoY increase. to the 2019 pre-pandemic benchmark,
Bremerhaven to New York rose to 16 Furthermore, shipping lead time has averaging a 30% increase for the same
days in week 25 this year, it was only been consistently longer since the time period.
10 days during the same period last beginning of this year, when compared
Best case transit times (last port in North Europe and first port in ECNA)
25
20
15
10
5
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
Week No.
2021 2022 Pre-Covid 2019
Source: Drewry AIS
Best case transit times (last port in ECNA and first port in North Europe)
Since the start of this year, in general, well above 2021 and pre-pandemic week 17 this year, and reaching pre-
transit times from Hampton Roads port levels. However, we have seen an pandemic levels in week 25.
to Antwerp & Zeebrugge have been improvement in transit times from
Best case transit times (last port in ECNA and first port in North Europe)
12
11
10
7
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
Week No.
2021 2022 Pre-Covid 2019
Source: Drewry AIS
Section 4: Cancelled sailings weekly forward outlook by trade lane
Transpacific EB Access to capacity Week 27 to 31
Summary analysis registered YoY decrease of 17% and

13%, respectively. From week 25 to
Over the next five weeks, there will be 42 week 26, the 40ft spot rate indexes
blank sailings from Asia to WCNA and 15 decreased by 4% on Shanghai-Los
to ECNA. Of the 415 scheduled sailings, Angeles and 2% on Shanghai-New York.
this represents a 14% cancellation rate.
After more than six weeks of negotiations
The number of blank sailings in the between the International Longshore and
Transpacific Eastbound trade will drop Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the Pacific
by 26% on average from July to August, Maritime Association (PMA), an agreement Ease of access
resulting in a capacity increase of 4% in has still not been reached between parties.
to capacity
August. Although the ILWU’s intention is to avoid

The China-North America 40ft World a ‘walkout’ after the deadline of July 1, Transpacific EB
Container Index rate indicated average many carriers and BCOs are choosing to
rates of $10,569 for ECNA and $8,260 for avoid the USWC and any possible adverse to the Far East – USEC loop, known as
WCNA in weeks 22 to 26. On 30 June, impact on port productivity. As the coastal ‘EC1’, with Hapag-Lloyd announcing the
Shanghai-Los Angeles and Shanghai- shift has gathered momentum, carriers reintroduction of a call at Charleston on
New York 40ft World Container Indexes have added more calls to the USEC. July 8 after it was dropped in April.
at $7,652 and $10,154 respectively For example, changes have been made
Transpacific EB: Cancelled Sailings by alliance (next 5 weeks)

Week 27 (4 Jul- Week 28 (11-17 Week 29 (18-24 Week 30 (25-31 Week 31 Total Cancelled Total Scheduled
ASIA-WCNA
10 Jul) Jul) Jul) Jul) (1-7 Aug) Sailings Week 27-31 Sailings Week 27-31
2M 3 2 2 2 1 10 30
Ocean Alliance 0 3 1 0 0 4 65
THE Alliance 3 3 1 4 2 13 55
Others 6 2 2 3 2 15 130
Total 12 10 6 9 5 42 280
ASIA-ECNA
2M 0 1 2 1 0 4 40
THE Alliance 0 1 1 1 0 3 25
Others 0 1 1 1 0 3 30
Total 1 5 5 3 1 15 135
Total (Transpac) 13 15 11 12 6 57 415
Asia-WCNA: Cancelled Sailings by alliance (next 5 weeks) Total Cancelled vs Scheduled Sailings (next 5 weeks)
14%
Others
THE Alliance
Ocean Alliance
2M 86%
0 5 10 15 20 Total Cancelled Sailings 27-31

Total Scheduled Sailings 27-31
Asia-ECNA: Cancelled Sailings by alliance (next 5 weeks) Asia-WCNA & Asia ECNA: Total Cancelled Sailings (next 5 weeks)
16
Others
12 12
THE Alliance 10
9
8
Ocean 6
Alliance 5 5 5
4
3
2M 1 1
0
Week 27 Week 28 Week 29 Week 30 Week 31
0 2 4 6 ASIA-WCNA ASIA-ECNA
Asia-North Europe & Med Access to capacity Week 27 to 31
Summary analysis lower YoY, while the Shanghai-Rotterdam

40ft container index rate at $9,240
Of the 155 scheduled sailings over the registered a decrease of 24% YoY.
next five weeks, we expect nine blank From week 25 to week 26, we expect a
sailings from Asia to North Europe and decrease of 2% on Shanghai-Genoa and
seven cancellations from Asia to the Med, 4% on Shanghai-Rotterdam 40ft spot
representing a 10% cancellation rate. rate index.
Ocean Alliance and THE Alliance have Port congestion at major North Europe
announced the highest number of ports show no signs of easing as strike Ease of access
cancellations – six each over the next action targeting the transport sector
to capacity
five weeks – with four blank sailings continues. Hapag Lloyd recently reported
to the Med and two to North Europe that labour at Southampton Port, United Asia - North Europe & Med
implemented by Ocean Alliance, while Kingdom, remains at an average of
The Alliance will blank two sailings to the 7-8 gangs. The recent increase in local
Med and four to North Europe. Covid cases has also contributed to in Rotterdam at European Container
On 30 June, the Shanghai-Genoa 40ft the labour shortage. The carrier also Terminals caused by a new five-days
container index rate at $10,884 was 8% reported a significant shortage of labour quarantine requirement.
Asia - North Europe & Med: Cancelled Sailings by alliance (next 5 weeks)
Total Cancelled Total Scheduled
ASIA-N EUROPE Week 27 (4 Week 28 (11- Week 29 (18- Week 30 (25- Week 31 Sailings Week Sailings Week
Jul-10 Jul) 17 Jul) 24 Jul) 31 Jul) (1-7 Aug) 27-31 27-31
2M 0 1 1 1 0 3 30
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Total 5 1 2 1 0 9 100
ASIA-MED
2M 1 0 0 0 0 1 15
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Total 2 1 1 3 0 7 55
Total (Asia - North
7 2 3 4 0 16 155
Europe + Med)
Asia-N. Europe: Cancelled Sailings by alliance (next 5 weeks) Total Cancelled vs Scheduled Sailings (next 5 weeks)
Others 10%
THE Alliance
Ocean Alliance
2M 90%
Total Cancelled Sailings 27-31

0 1 2 3 4 5 Total Scheduled Sailings 27-31
Asia-Med: Cancelled Sailings by alliance (next 5 weeks) Asia-N. Europe & Asia-Med: Total Cancelled Sailings (next 5 weeks)
7
Others
5 5
THE Alliance
3 3
Ocean Alliance 2 2
1 1 1 1
0
2M
-1
0 1 2 3 4 5
ASIA-N EUROPE ASIA-MED
Transatlantic WB Access to capacity Week 27 to 31
Summary analysis increased by about 35% YoY, from $5,008

in 2021 to $6,783 in 2022, indicating
Of the 190 scheduled sailings over the next a marginal decrease of 1% WoW. The
five weeks, the westbound Transatlantic average 40ft Word Container Index rate in
trade will see six cancellations from North weeks 22 to 26 stands at $6,971.
Europe and seven cancellations from the
Med, representing a relatively low 7% The carrier MSC continues to expand
cancellation rate. its market share on the Transatlantic
trade by adding a new standalone
The number of blank sailings will drop North Europe – North America Gulf Ease of access
from 11 in July to 10 in August. During the loop service, which sailed from Antwerp
to capacity
same period, effective capacity deployed this week. MSC already controls about
in the Transatlantic westbound trade will 44% of the total capacity deployed on
shrink by 7% from North Europe while we Transatlantic WB
the Transatlantic trade. The appetite
foresee a grow of 3% from the Med. for growth on this trade lane further
The Rotterdam-New York 40ft World strengthens the carrier’s ‘first position’ in
Container Index rate on 30 June the Europe – North America trade.
Transatlantic WB: Cancelled Sailings by alliance (next 5 weeks)

NORTH EUROPE-
Week 27 (4 Week 28 (11- Week 29 Week 30 (25- Week 31 (1-7 Sailings Week Sailings Week
NORTH AMERICA
Jul-10 Jul) 17 Jul) (18-24 Jul) 31 Jul) Aug) 27-31 27-31
2M 2 0 0 0 0 2 15
Others 2 0 0 0 1 3 65
Total 4 0 0 1 1 6 110
MED-NORTH AMERICA
2M 0 1 0 2 0 3 10
Ocean Alliance 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.5
THE Alliance 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.5
Others 1 1 0 1 1 4 65
Total 1 2 0 3 1 7 80
Total (Transatlantic) 5 2 0 4 2 13 190
N. Europe-N.America: Cancelled Sailings by alliance (next 5 weeks) Total Cancelled vs Scheduled Sailings (next 5 weeks)
Others 7%
THE Alliance
Ocean Alliance
2M 93%

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Med-N.America: Cancelled Sailings by alliance (next 5 weeks) N.Europe-N.America & Med-N.America: Total Cancelled Sailings (next 5 weeks)
5
Others 4
3 3
THE Alliance
2
Ocean Alliance 1 1 1 1
0 0
2M -1
0 1 2 3 4 5 N.Europe-N.America Med-N.America
South Asia-North Europe & Med Access to capacity Week 27 to 31
Summary analysis the carriers may apply additional blank

sailings in August, which have not been
Over the next five weeks, there will be announced yet.
six blank sailings from South Asia to the
The pandemic caused a sudden surge
Med, while three cancellations have been
in demand for goods from South Asia to
announced from South Asia to North
North Europe & Med, putting pressure
Europe. The number of cancelled sailings
on both space and equipment. However,
registered from South Asia to North
shipping lines acted promptly and
Europe and the Med will drop by 33% in
responded by adding additional capacity Ease of access
August over July. to capacity
to meet the demand. According to
In August, effective capacity deployed Container Shipping Lines Association
from South Asia to North Europe will (CLSA), shipping lines repositioned 1.85
see no change MoM, while we expect South Asia-North Europe & Med
million teu of empty containers into India
a 42% increase from South Asia to the and added new services last year. This in Shanghai, we may see similar
Med over the same period. This increase year, as a result of the recent lockdowns measures being taken by carriers.
could shrink over the next weeks, as
South Asia - North Europe & Med: Cancelled Sailings by independent & consortium (next 5 weeks)
SOUTH ASIA-NORTH
Week 27 (4 Week 28 (11- Week 29 (18- Week 30 (25- Week 31 Sailings Week Sailings Week
EUROPE
Jul-10 Jul) 17 Jul) 24 Jul) 31 Jul) (1-7 Aug) 27-31 27-31
Independent 1 1 0 0 0 2 15
Consortium 0 0 0 1 0 1 15
Total 1 1 0 1 0 3 30
SOUTH ASIA - MED
Independent 2 1 1 2 0 6 17
Consortium 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Total 2 1 1 2 0 6 22
Total (South Asia-N.
3 2 1 3 0 9 52
Europe+Med)
South Asia-N.Europe: Cancelled Sailings by independent &

Total Cancelled vs Scheduled Sailings (next 5 weeks)
consortium (next 5 weeks)
17%
Consortium
Independent
83%

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
South Asia-Med: Cancelled Sailings by independent & consortium

South Asia-N.Europe & Med: Total Cancelled Sailings (next 5 weeks)
(next 5 weeks)
3
2 2 2
Consortium
1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0
Independent
-1
0 2 4 6 8 South Asia-N.Europe South Asia-Med
Section 5: Year-on-year Analysis

East-West major trades - headhaul
In August, cancelled sailings on the from three to six from the Med. On Asia- decline by 16% YoY on Asia-WCNA
Transpacific eastbound trade are likely to North Europe route, cancelled sailings trade. During the same period, capacity
increase from 22 to 26 YoY on the West are projected to remain the same YoY on Asia-North Europe trade will decrease
Coast and are expected to rise from 10 (9 cancellations), while we expect an by 6% and on Asia-Med by 25%. We
to 11 YoY on the East Coast. During the increase from two to six from Asia to the also expect a decline of 6% YoY on the
same period, cancelled sailings on the Med, during the same period. Med-North America trade lane while the
Transatlantic trade will increase from Effective capacity on the Asia-ECNA capacity is expected to fall by 9% from
three to four YoY from North Europe, and trade will remain stable YoY while it will North Europe to North America.
Monthly Cancelled Sailings Evolution, East-West major trades
75
60
45
30
15
0
Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22
ASIA-N EUROPE ASIA-MED ASIA-WCNA ASIA-ECNA N Europe-N America Med-N America

Monthly Effective Capacity Evolution, East-West major trades (TEU)

2,000,000
1,750,000
1,500,000
1,250,000
1,000,000
750,000
500,000
250,000
0
ASIA-N EUROPE ASIA-MED ASIA-WCNA ASIA-ECNA N Europe-N America Med-N America

South Asia-North Europe & Med - headhaul
In August, cancelled sailings on the trade will increase from zero in August Europe and South Asia-Med trades,
South Asia-North Europe trade will 2021 to three in August 2022. averaging 28%.
increase from two to three YoY while Effective capacity in August 2022 will
blank sailings on the South Asia-Med decrease YoY on South Asia-North
Monthly Cancelled Sailings Evolution, South Asia-North Europe & Med

8
0
South Asia-N Europe South Asia-Med
Monthly Effective Capacity Evolution, South Asia-North Europe & Med (TEU)
150,000
125,000
100,000
75,000
50,000
25,000
0
South Asia-N Europe South Asia-Med

Effective Capacity, Aug 2021/2022 – headhaul
Asia-ECNA: Effective Capacity by alliance (Aug 2021/2022) Asia-WCNA: Effective Capacity by alliance (Aug 2021/2022)
900,000 120% 2,000,000 10%
1,500,000 0%
600,000 60%
1,000,000 -10%
300,000 0%
500,000 -20%
0 -60% 0 -30%
Aug-21 Aug-22 % change(y-o-y) Aug-21 Aug-22 % change(y-o-y)
Asia-N Europe: Effective Capacity by alliance (Aug 2021/2022) Asia-Med: Effective Capacity by alliance (Aug 2021/2022)
1,200,000 200% 600,000 600%
800,000 100% 400,000 300%
400,000 0% 200,000 0%
0 -100% 0 -300%
N Europe-N America: Effective Capacity by alliance (Aug 2021/2022) Med-N America: Effective Capacity by alliance (Aug 2021/2022)
400,000 0% 300,000 60%

300,000 -4% 225,000 30%
200,000 -8% 150,000 0%
100,000 -12% 75,000 -30%
0 -16% 0 -60%
S Asia-N Europe: Effective Capacity by independent & consortium (Aug 2021/22) S Asia-Med: Effective Capacity by independent & consortium (Aug 2021/2022)
160,000 50% 80,000 -28%
120,000 20% 60,000 -32%
80,000 -10% 40,000 -36%
40,000 -40% 20,000 -40%
0 -70% 0 -44%
Independent Consortium Total Independent Consortium Total
Section 6: Operational Metrics

Equipment Availability
The average waiting time for releasing Transpacific eastbound trade, and uninterrupted, the port could not receive
empty equipment in Shanghai remained Asia-USWC and Asia-USEC trade lanes. additional containers as they were stuck
stable in May MoM. This indicates that There was no change in rollovers across at yards. In May, Shanghai was still
shippers typically waited one day during Asia-Europe and Asia-Mediterranean. under strict Covid restrictions, but as the
the last two months to collect empty Since the start of the lockdown average waiting time for releasing empty
containers after placing booking requests in Shanghai, port productivity equipment remained unchanged, freight
with their shipping lines. decreased due to disruptions to inland forwarders continued diverting their
In May, freight forwarders saw an transportation and labour constraints. cargos to alternative ports, particularly
increase in rollovers across the Even if port operations had been Ningbo.
Monthly average waiting time for releasing empty equipment (Days)
16
13
12
12
11
9
8
5 5 6 5
1 1
0
07-2021 08-2021 09-2021 10-2021 11-2021 12-2021 01-2022 02-2022 03-2022 04-2022 05-2022
Shanghai
Note: Preliminary data is based on a small sample

Rollover’s trend by trade lanes
Rollover’s trend by trade lanes

Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22
Trade lane
Asia - Europe ê è é è é ê é é ê è
Asia - Mediterranean é é é ê è è é é ê è
Asia - US West Coast ê é é ê é ê é é ê é
Asia - US East Coast è é é ê ê é é é ê é
Methodology
A) Cancelled Sailings
Definition
When a carrier skips a complete round voyage from its regular fixed schedule it is treated as a cancelled sailing. If a carrier or
alliance skips a port call but the voyage is completed then it will not be treated as a cancelled sailing.
Assumptions
1. Services that are not direct (i.e., that involve relays, feeders, or through wayport connections) do not count as a ‘service’ for
cancelled sailings.
2. Services in intra-regional and feeder services are not included in the analysis.
3. The report does not count skipped port calls, in active voyages, as cancelled sailings.
4. Timings for cancelled sailings are based on published schedules and do not take into account the impact of port congestion
and other factors causing delays. This approach means that there may be variations between the scheduled calling week and
the actual calling week.
5. It includes the case of a vessel slide.
Data Sources
All cancelled sailings are extracted from the operational schedules of liner websites. Additionally, the latest announcements
regarding cancelled sailings are sourced from press releases, news, and advisories from shipping lines. In this report, we have
covered primary as well as secondary routes. Under the primary route, the total six routes are covered; Asia-ECNA, Asia-WCNA,
Asia-North Europe, Asia-Med, North Europe-North America, Med-North America. Under secondary route, we cover only two
routes; ‘South Asia – North Europe and South Asia – Med. All services are checked for headhaul routes (first port of loading in
rotation) via a schedule hyperlink on the RCD website.
Data Frequency
Data frequency for cancelled sailings is maintained on a weekly basis (every Wednesday). Sometimes, data for future weeks may
also change because of a recent update from carriers or vessel slide issues. Thus, a researcher needs to make retroactive changes
in cancelled sailings for those previous weeks.
B) Operational Metrics
The monthly indications about the market situation are based on a survey of Drewry’s freight forwarder partners in China.
1. Equipment availability
We quantify the equipment availability by looking at how long freight forwarders had to wait to collect empty containers after
sending the booking request to the shipping line. The assumption is that if the shipping lines have plenty of equipment, they can
confirm the pick up details within 24 hours. This measure is collected for Shanghai port, looking at the previous four months’
shipment data (monthly average).
2. Rollovers
The “Rollovers” ratio is the fraction of the number of TEU which was not loaded on the intended vessel. The intended vessel’ refers
to the vessel voyage on the carrier’s booking confirmation.
C) Port Congestion
Definition
Weekly average ship waiting time in hours is derived from Drewry’s own AIS model, which captures containership waiting events
both ongoing and completed at the target ports. Data by week is from Monday to Sunday.
Assumptions
1. Drewry AIS model subscribes to only vessels less than 1,000 dwt, therefore not all vessel movements within a port / terminal
are captured.
2. Drewry AIS model subscribes to data based on four-hourly transmission interval, which limits accuracy of the data at a single
vessel level.
3. Drewry assumes the AIS model generates no data gaps, which may arise due to issues with vessel data transponders and/or
landside receivers.
4. Drewry assumes the AIS data transmission mechanism is always switched on for all vessels and there is no data
transmission blocking issues.
Methodology
d) Transit Times
Drewry displays actual transit times on certain trade routes using AIS vessel tracking data, which identifies lead times between the
terminal departure at the load port and terminal arrival at the discharge port for consecutive and direct port calls which are deemed
representative for the fastest transit time of the named trade routes.
In the data collection, we excluded tracking data from Small and Large feeders.
The port pairs used are:
Trade Route Load port Discharge port

Transpacific Eastbound Shanghai Los Angeles & Long Beach
Asia-North Europe Westbound Singapore & Tanjung Pelepas Rotterdam
Transatlantic Eastbound Hampton Roads Antwerp & Zeebrugge
Transatlantic Westbound Hamburg & Bremerhaven New York
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Container Capacity Insight

Previously named as Cancelled Sailings Weekly Insight Week | 26 | 2022

Section 1: Container market forecast

Ease of access Ease of access Ease of access Ease of access

Source: Drewry Supply Chain Advisors

Container market forecast for the month of August

$ % m-o-m Change of spot freight rates

Section 2: Port congestion

North America: Port congestion Z-score indicators (No. vessels waiting)

Asia: Port congestion Z-score indicators (No. vessels waiting)

Section 2: Port congestion

Europe: Port congestion Z-score indicators (No. vessels waiting)

Africa: Port congestion Z-score indicators (No. vessels waiting)

Section 2: Port congestion

Latin America: Port congestion Z-score indicators (No. vessels waiting)

Oceania: Port congestion Z-score indicators (No. vessels waiting)

Section 2: Port congestion

Port Klang Tanjung Pelepas

Section 3: Best case transit times

Source: Drewry AIS

Source: Drewry AIS

Section 3: Best case transit times

Source: Drewry AIS

Section 4: Cancelled sailings weekly forward outlook by trade lane

Transpacific EB Access to capacity Week 27 to 31

Summary analysis registered YoY decrease of 17% and

August. Although the ILWU’s intention is to avoid

Transpacific EB: Cancelled Sailings by alliance (next 5 weeks)

0 5 10 15 20 Total Cancelled Sailings 27-31

Section 4: Cancelled sailings weekly forward outlook by trade lane

Asia-North Europe & Med Access to capacity Week 27 to 31

Summary analysis lower YoY, while the Shanghai-Rotterdam

Total Cancelled Sailings 27-31

Section 4: Cancelled sailings weekly forward outlook by trade lane

Transatlantic WB Access to capacity Week 27 to 31

Summary analysis increased by about 35% YoY, from $5,008

Transatlantic WB: Cancelled Sailings by alliance (next 5 weeks)

Total Cancelled Sailings 27-31

Section 4: Cancelled sailings weekly forward outlook by trade lane

South Asia-North Europe & Med Access to capacity Week 27 to 31

Summary analysis the carriers may apply additional blank

South Asia-N.Europe: Cancelled Sailings by independent &

Total Cancelled Sailings 27-31

South Asia-Med: Cancelled Sailings by independent & consortium

Section 5: Year-on-year Analysis

Monthly Cancelled Sailings Evolution, East-West major trades

ASIA-N EUROPE ASIA-MED ASIA-WCNA ASIA-ECNA N Europe-N America Med-N America

Monthly Effective Capacity Evolution, East-West major trades (TEU)

ASIA-N EUROPE ASIA-MED ASIA-WCNA ASIA-ECNA N Europe-N America Med-N America

Source: Drewry Supply Chain Advisors

Section 5: Year-on-year Analysis

Monthly Cancelled Sailings Evolution, South Asia-North Europe & Med

South Asia-N Europe South Asia-Med

Source: Drewry Supply Chain Advisors

South Asia-N Europe South Asia-Med

Source: Drewry Supply Chain Advisors

Section 5: Year-on-year Analysis

900,000 120% 2,000,000 10%

Aug-21 Aug-22 % change(y-o-y) Aug-21 Aug-22 % change(y-o-y)

1,200,000 200% 600,000 600%

800,000 100% 400,000 300%

Aug-21 Aug-22 % change(y-o-y) Aug-21 Aug-22 % change(y-o-y)

400,000 0% 300,000 60%