I2U2, the West Asian QUAD

Imran Malik

July 02, 2022

The contours of US’ grand strategic design

for the world and in particular, the Asia
Pacific, are now emerging unmistakably,
(The Strategy of Alliances, by this scribe,
The Nation, 30 October 2021). They reflect
its compulsive obsession to reassert its
unquestionable, unchallengeable hegemony
in the world. To that end, it intends to
neutralise the Russian and Chinese
challenges, individual as well as combined.

It has already entrapped Russia in”the

Ukrainian quagmire and continues to feed
the war effort in a carefully crafted and
measured manner that guarantees its
longevity—much to Ukraine’s utter
destruction, its European allies’ increasing
economic woes, Russia’s swelling losses
and the rest of the world’s horror. (Not
unsurprisingly, no meaningful international
efforts have been made to mediate and
initiate a credible peace process, yet!). It is
also positioning itself strategically in the
Asia Pacific in particular, to effectively
counter China’s phenomenal rise; its
evolving ascendancy in global affairs, its
rampaging economy, and emerging sphere
of influence and strategic reach.

Power supply fully restored in Karachi: K-

Electric

The US has therefore crafted a very

forward-looking strategy. It is creating the
necessary regional/subregional
organisations, structures and infrastructure
in the Asia Pacific around which military
alliances and coalitions can be built,
operationalised and employed, at will. In the
Indo-Pacific it has the QUAD, in the South
Pacific, AUKUS, in the GMER, I2U2 (Israel,
India, US, UAE) and in the SCAR, a
Quadrilateral Dialogue, where it might
engage Pakistan, Afghanistan and
Uzbekistan.
The I2U2, a vital part of this US strategy, is a
natural progression of the Abraham
Accords, which laid down the paradigms for
interstate relations between some Arab
states and Israel. The Abraham Accords is
bound to eventually envelop the KSA too.
Critically, the US has lured India into this
very compelling alliance as well. This will
herald the transformation of a supposedly
innocuous grouping under the Abraham
Accords into a tangible economic,
diplomatic, technological and political
behemoth with the capacity to morph into a
powerful military alliance as well.

IMF lauds Pakistan’s policies, assures

continued support
Once this formidable bloc has been
formalised and formulated, it will radiate its
own power potential and influence around
the region. Will it be poised against Iran,
China, both or all assumed adversaries?
This lack of a distinct and agreed-upon
strategic direction will create a clash of
interests over the JCPOA, Iran, nuclear
Pakistan, the BRI-CPEC, China et al.

Furthermore, the Arabs and Israelis will be

compelled to co-exist as allies under US
leadership. Will they readily share the same
collective/national interests, strategic aims,
objectives and desired end states or as
enunciated by the US?

Do they have the same view of the region’s

geopolitical, geo-economic and
geostrategic construct/imperatives for now
and for the future? Time alone will tell how
this alliance overcomes these and other
basic fault lines.

A massive paradigm shift In the

geopolitical, geostrategic and geo-
economic dimensions of the GMER is
inevitable and will engender consequential
realignments.

Rana Sanaullah’s arrest warrant: ‘IG Punjab

to be asked to assist ACE’

The US accrues many advantages from the

I2U2. It reaffirms its global leadership, gets
Israel more international legitimacy and
recognition, reiterates its sphere of
influence, further solidifies its strategic
reach and brings the Arabs and the Israelis
under one banner.

Israel gets to neutralise all threats from the

Arabs and importantly acquires a tangible
access to the Persian Gulf; bringing Iran
and others further East ominously within its
strategic reach!

The US, wary of the BRI’s global reach, will

tend to circumscribe it by denying it that
critical space essential for its natural
progression further into the GMER, Africa,
the Mediterranean and beyond.

With the I2U2 in place, the US and its allies

will dominate the Persian Gulf region,
straddle the Hormuz Straits and exercise
controlling oversight on the most vital oil
and trade SLOCs through the region. Can it
realistically browbeat Iran or contain/block
the BRI east of the Persian Gulf? Even
militarily, if required?

Imran Khan to arrive in Karachi today

India is fast emerging as an inevitable pivot

for US’ Asia Pacific strategy. It is the
world’s second-most populous country, has
a very vibrant economy and market, an
evolving technological base, a very large
military and above all a great (geo)strategic
location. The Indian peninsula juts out
phenomenally into the Indian Ocean and
helps dominate all global East-West (read
Chinese) trade.
Its proximity to the Malacca Straits, through
the Nicobar and Andaman Islands, makes it
inevitable to US operational strategies,
thereabouts. It is thus perfectly located to
pursue US interests in both the Indo-Pacific
and the GMER; therefore, its accorded roles
in the QUAD and I2U2.

Currently, India is flirting with both camps. It

is a strategic partner of the US and has
joined the QUAD, I2U2, et al while it is
simultaneously hobnobbing with the Sino-
Russia Combine in the BRICS, SCO, AIIB et
al. It might be able to run with the hare and
hunt with the hound for a while but at some
stage its famed strategic autonomy is
bound to give in and force it to pick a side.
Neutrality might not be a very viable option
or a virtue, in potentially trying, testing
circumstances!
Three killed in road mishap in Ahmedpur
Sharqia

Iran will be directly threatened by the I2U2,

regardless of the avatar it eventually
acquires. It will be used to pressurise it on
the elusive JCPOA, Russia, China, BRI-CPEC
and other diplomatic, economic and trade
issues. A militarised I2U2 will increase the
threat levels for Iran manifold. Will India
(pro)actively threaten Iran’s vital national
interests under the I2U2 ambit?

Pakistan needs to evaluate the evolving

strategic environment minutely. It must
note the inherent contradictions in the I2U2
which will lead to a veritable clash of
interests over itself and its nuclear
programme, the BRI-CPEC, Iran, China,
India, Kashmir, Palestine et al.

It must never forget that the CPEC Is its

future economic lifeline. It will require
sublime diplomacy, visionary
statesmanship and statecraft, courageous
leadership, unyielding nationalism and an
unshakeable iron will to unambiguously,
fearlessly pursue its vital national interests.

Pakistan will do well to follow a balanced

foreign policy that maintains its great
relationship with the US-led West and allies
without prejudice to its unbreakable,
immortal bonds with China and its
prodigious BRI-CPEC!