Geo Informatics

Topic: Flood Frequency Analysis of Chenab River

Assignment # 05
Instructor Dr. Mohsin Waqas
Semester 7th
Submitted by
CVE172001 Arham Yaseen
CVE172019 Ammar Saleem
CVE172025 Hizbullah Khan
CVE172028 Maria Khalid
CVE172031 Ansar Shahzad
CVE172036 Amna Pakeeza
CVE172045 Sahreen Farooq

FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF CHENAB RIVER

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Flood frequency is the concept of the probable frequency of occurrence of a given flood. For the
design of engineering works, for example, it is not sufficient to say that the maximum
observed flood was, say, 900 m3/s; it is also necessary to say what is the frequency of occurrence
of this flood.(1)

Flood frequency analysis is a technique used by hydrologists to predict flow values

corresponding to specific return periods or probabilities along a river. After choosing the
probability distribution that best fits the annual maxima data, flood frequency curves are plotted.
Extrapolations of frequency curves to recurrence intervals greater than 100 years generally are
not reliable. Most frequency curves, graphically or mathematically derived, are unbounded at the
upper end although there must be some physical limit to the flood potential on any stream. (2)

Flooding is a common phenomenon every year in Pakistan since last three decades. River
Chenab is one of the largest rivers of the Indus basin. Floods in Chenab result from heavy
rainfall in the upper drainage basin. This basin falls under the most active monsoon belt Pir
Punjal range beyond Akhnoor which is ideally located to cause the necessary orographic lifting
along its windward slopes. The snow melt contributions which is on the average 40 % of the total
flow in July synchronizes with the early monsoon in July but not with the peak values occurring
in August and September. During the monsoon, particularly the Jammu and Munawar Tawis
contribute considerably to the flood flows at Marala (Awan, 2003). Chenab is joined near the
border by two major tributaries, the Munwar Tawi and Jammu Tawi both draining some 2,800
Km2 of land on both side of the two rivers. Chenab enters in Pakistan just upstream of rim
station Marala (32°- 40/ N and 76°-29/ E).

The river slopes from the source to the mouth vary strongly with the steepest part about 25 m/km
upstream of Tandi while Tandi to Akhnoor the slop is 5m/km and it drops to about 0.4 m/km
when the river flows out into the plains (Awan, 2003). Below Akhnoor it becomes wider and the
flood plain is enormous. The river Chenab above the rim station Marala flows in a rugged and
hilly terrain and all its upper drainage basin is situated in Himachal Pradesh (its origin) and
Indian state of Jammu Kashmir. The river has no major dam or head works above Marala,
therefore it maintains a free flow at Marala head works. As Pakistan could not get the point-
rainfall observations from India, therefore the flood forecasting division Lahore has to depend on
the QPM radar observations of Lahore & Sialkot. Because of Indus Treaty agreement between
Pakistan and India, the discharge data of Chenab at main Akhnoor (India) and also at Jammu
(India) for Jammu Tawi the main tributary of Chenab River is available which gives a good clue
of the existing conditions at crossborder points. This information plays a vital role for flood
forecasting at Marala and river routing downstream up to the confluence of the river, where it
enters river Indus.(3)

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 Figure 1: Historical Floods Recorded at Marala during last 46 years

Floods in Chenab result from heavy rainfall in the upper drainage basin, which falls under the
most active monsoon belt. Pir Punjal range beyond Akhnoor is ideally located to cause the
necessary orographic lifting along its windward slopes. The snow metl contributions on the
average 40% of the total flow in July when the peak melt rates are attained. Hence it
synchronizes with the early monsoon in July, but not with the peak values occurring in August
and September.

During the monsoon, particularly the Jammu and Munawar Tawis contribute considerably to the
flood flows at Marala. Between Marala and Khaki quite a number of tributaries enter Chenab
River, which can aggravate the floods. The total catchment area of these tributaries is about
3,500 Km2 it is estimated that these tributaries contribute to severe river flooding as much as 30
years of the base flow at Marala. These basins are flood prone, heavy flood damage occurred in
September 1988 in the Sialkot district located in between the Aik and Palku nullahs. The
historical extreme events in the pilot area were recorded in 1988, 1995, 1996 and 1997.(4)

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 Figure 2:Thirty-two Years Historical Data Of River Chenab At Marala & Khanki

L= LOW FLOOD

M= MEDIUM FLOOD

H= HIGH FLOOD

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V.H= VERY HIGH FLOOD

E.H =EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH FLOOD

Figure 3: Historical Data of Maximum Flood peaks of Chenab River

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 Figure 4: Annual Inflows of Indus, Jhelum and Chenab Rivers (MAF)

References:
1. Beard LR. Estimating Flood Frequency and Average Annual Damage. J Water Resour
Plan Manag. 1997;123(2):84–8.
2. Curves PF. Annual floods. 1949;145–64.
3. Riaz M, Aziz A, Hussain S. Flood Forecasting of an Ungauged Trans-boundary Chenab
River Basin Using Distributed Hydrological Model Integrated Flood Analysis System
(IFAS). Pakistan J Meteorol [Internet]. 2017;13(26):51–62. Available from:
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?
hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Flood+Forecasting+of+an+Ungauged+Trans-
boundary+Chenab+River+Basin+Using+Distributed+Hydrological+Model+Integrated+Fl
ood+Analysis+System+%28IFAS%29&btnG=
4. Management IF, Study C. the Associated Programme on Flood Management Integrated
Flood Management Case Study 1 Fiji Islands : Flood Management - Rewa River Basin.
Agriculture. 2004;

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