Evaluation of Excess runoff in north-

eastern part of Bangladesh: A Case study

in Sylhet

Under supervision of
Presented by
Ummay Hani Mozumder Mr. Shyamal Acharya
ID:1710012 Asst. Professor
Sumaiya Sultana Abha Department of Civil Engineering
ID:1710015 Chittagong University of
Engineering and Technology
 Table of Contents

1 Introduction 5 Study Area

Problem 6 Methodology
2
Statement
Result And
3 Objectives 7
Discussion

4 Literature 8 Conclusion
Review
 Introduction

1 2 3
Floods occur Flash floods are Flood water from
when excess rapid, destructive Assam overflows to
water submerges floods with sudden, Meghalaya, Shillong,
dry ground. significant water Cherrapunji and
level rise. enters into
Bangladesh via
Greater Sylhet.
4 5
Previous Floods: 1988, HEC-HMS 4.10 is used for
1998, 2004, 2007, 2017, rainfall-runoff model to observe
2020, 2022 discharge variation over time.
 Problem Statement

1 2 3 4

The north- Increased Huge runoff entering After the flood

eastern part of urbanization from surrounding of 2022, an
Bangladesh and changing Indian subbasins via updated study
often becomes land-use, land- Surma-Kushiyara of discharge
river.
the victim of cover pattern is pattern is
Flash Floods. making the needed.
situation worst.
 Background of Present Study

Sylhet division experiences the most precipitation causing

01 severe flooding.

This study aims to develop a more convenient and

02 realistic discharge calculation using HEC-HMS 4.10

This runoff estimation can help to minimize flood

03 destruction and improve drainage network to carry
selective amount of runoff.
 Literature Review

Floods are the most common natural

disaster in modern urbanization.
Different parts of our country is
affected by different types of floods
every year.
Factors of Flood
Magnitude of discharge.
Source of flood water.
Intensity of precipitation.
 Literature Review
Types of Floods
Riverine Estuarine
Floods Flash Floods Floods
Overflow of river, takes Sudden flooding of low- Brought on by a mix of
time to develop and lying areas brought by storm-force winds and
dissipate rainfall usually within 6 sea tidal waves.
hours

Catastrophic Coastal Floods Urban Floods

Floods occurs when rainfall
When seawater covers
Due to major exceeds the capacity of
low-lying, dry land
infrastructure failure drainage systems and
floods lands and
properties
 Literature Review
The main concern is flash flood as the northeastern part of our country
Flash
is a victimFlood
of a devastating flash flood.

Factors
Intensity, location and distribution
of rainfall.
land-use and topography Mechanism
Vegetation and soil type
60% of total runoff produces
Causes from the 3 Indian catchments
Remaining 40% runoff locally
Heavy rainfall
produces
Increment of impervious area
Reduction of navigability of the rivers
 Literature Review

Relevant Studies on Flood Analysis

Runoff prediction of Surma basin by curve number (CN) method using ARC-GIS
and HEC-RAS
Author: GM Munna, MJB Alam, MM Uddin, N Islam
Summary: The study measures peak discharge value for different return periods,
flood depth, flood extend for the Surma basin in Sylhet, Bangladesh

A study on hydrodynamic and short term flash flood analysis of Surma river
using delft3D model.
Author: .Probal Saha, Umme Kulsum Navera
Summary: The study shows, maximum water level, velocity and discharge of
Surma River is obtained during the monsoon
 Literature Review
Relevant Studies on Flood Analysis
Hydrologic modeling and flood mapping at Quinali A Watershed, Albay,
Philippines using HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS
Author: Mary Angeline O. Napay, Roger A. Luyun Jr
Summary: The study investigates the flooding hazard using HEC-HMS and HEC-
Literature Review
RAS modelling software

Flood mitigation in the Transboundary Chenab river basin: A basin-wise approach

from flood forecasting to management.
Author: Ali, S.; Cheema, M.J.M.; Waqas, M.M.; Waseem, M.; Leta, M.K.; Qamar,
M.U.; Awan, U.K.; Bilal, M.; Rahman, M.H.u
Summary: The study measures peak flow simulation and inundation modelling of
transboundary Chenab river basin
 Objectives

To simulate a hydrologic model using HEC-HMS.

To generate a hydrograph.

To identify the difference between observed and

simulated discharge for flood forecast.
Study Area

Sylhet
Division
 Study Area
Boundary and Topography

Sunamganj
Sylhet

Moulvibazar
Habiganj

Brahmanbaria
 Study Area

Climate

Rainy Season
Summer The rainy season begins in Winter
April and lasts through
Sylhet experiences a October. During this time, it The short dry season
humid subtropical is extremely hot and humid begins in November and
climate with average with frequent, intense rains lasts through February
temperature of 25°C and thunderstorms.
 Study Area
River Network of north-eastern part
 Data Collection

Parameter Duration Details Source

Rainfall Jan,2005-July,2022 Daily precipitation BMD (Bangladesh

data Meteorological
Department)

Discharge Jan,2005-July,2022 Mean Daily BWDB (Bangladesh

Discharge Water Development
Board)

DEM - 30m resolution USGS

 Data Collection
Location of Discharge Station
Data Collection
Location of Rainfall Station
Data Collection
DEM of Study Area
Data Collection
Methodology(HEC-HMS Model Set-up)
Precipitation

Basin Meteorological
New Project DEM
model Model Setup

Including
Observed Hydrograph Model Hyetograph
Discharge Simulation

Hydrograph Objective 2 Objective 1

Comparison

Objective 3
 Methodology
Catchments of Upper North-eastern Part.
 Methodology
Catchments of Lower North-eastern Part.
 Methodology
HEC-HMS Model Set-Up for North-eastern Region
 Results
Discharge vs Day of Year Graph (Before Calibration)
Result (Calibration)
Hydrograph (Calibrated)
 Result (Calibration)
Regression Graph for Calibration.
 Result(Calibration)

Table: Performance Parameters of Calibration

Parameters Values Range Performance

Rating

Nash Sutcliffe 0.86 0.75<NSE<1.00 Very Good

RMSE Std Dev 0.50 0.50<RSR<0.60 Good
Percent Bias +17.97% ±10≤PBIAS<±15 Good
R2 0.792 0.75<R2<1.00 Very Good
Result (Validation)
Hydrograph (Validated)
 Result (Validation)
Regression Graph for Validation.
 Result (Validation)

Table: Performance Parameters of Validation

Parameters Values Range Performance
Rating
0.75 0.75<NSE<1.00 Very Good
Nash Sutcliffe

0.6 0.60<RSR<0.70 Satisfactory

RMSE Std Dev

+22.23% ±15≤PBIAS≤±25 Satisfactory

Percent Bias

0.765 0.75<R2<1.00 Very Good

R2
Result of Calibration and Validation`

Table: Peak Discharges (2005 and 2012): Observed, Calibrated and Validated

Year
Peak discharge (m3/s) Date

2005 Observed: 2864.30 27 August

Simulated: 2983.40 30 August

2012 Observed: 2833.70 19 August

Simulated: 2996.40 24 August

 Discussion

After calibration and validation, there are small deviations between simulated
and observed data and a small time lag. This is due to some limitations of this
study.

1 Poor accuracy rate of observed discharge data, precipitation data,

land-use and landcover data, soil data etc.

Rainfall data of Indian subbasins were not considered which

2 increased the variation between observed and simulated
discharge.
 Discussion

3 No canopy method is selected for simulation.

30m resolution DEM was used. Use of higher resolution

4 DEM will automatically improve the quality of flow
direction, watershed delineation, basin characteristics etc.
 Conclusion

To represent the flood situation of the north-eastern region of Bangladesh for

different years during 2005 to 2022 a detailed hydrologic model was
developed using HEC-HMS 4.10 .

DEM extraction of study area, processing of soil map, land use and
landcover map, curve number determination for each subbasin were done
using Arc-GIS 10.4.

The model was calibrated for the period of 2005 and validated for the
period of 2012. The calibrated (Observed: 2864.30 , Simulated: 2983.40 ) and
validated (Observed: 2833.70 , Simulated: 2996.40 ) graphs resemble nearly
similar discharge.
 Conclusion

Resulting hydrograph shows simulated discharge and observed

discharge with respect to days of year.

This study gives us the idea of amount of runoff pouring over north-eastern
region.

It will assist in mitigation of flood destruction and prediction of

amount of flood water.
THANKS!
Any Question?