Pencil Sales Data - Weigthed Moving Average over 6 Periods

Year Period Sales Forecast (WMA6)

1 1 299.9
2 177.4
3 221.1
4 147.5
5 215.3
6 212.0
7 244.3 208.37083928172
8 259.7 189.13178884538
9 231.0 229.6277123582
10 154.7 235.21230263855
11 345.8 232.70793817756
12 230.4 226.90057022121
2 13 234.3 261.8593766429
14 188.3 214.97145450765
15 248.7 275.04584414984
16 320.0 217.68333499171
17 218.6 241.84324692522
18 334.3 246.37898672879
19 288.4 255.87444333036
20 354.5 308.54068104259
21 338.9 272.34920732164
22 446.7 335.89239629296
23 309.7 330.89741984396
24 406.8 380.94625686069
3 25 384.7 349.47943846913
26 503.7 408.13808584498
27 368.6 368.6004367028
28 512.0 434.71870839041
29 486.7 407.33251185179
30 504.3 487.07675513076
31 667.4 443.26357003747
32 469.6 521.29517494633
33 768.6 551.92247027596
34 539.7 539.70613538676
35 664.7 664.70018773133
36 733.8 553.61630671696
4 37 697.67952254229

Mean absolute deviation

 Absolute Squared Absolute
error error % error Period Weight
t-6 0.00
t-5 0.00
t-4 0.41
t-3 0.13
t-2 0.36
t-1 0.10
35.929160718277 0.1470698351137 1.00
70.568211154622 0.2717297310536
1.3722876418059 0.005940639142
80.512302638547 0.5204415167327
113.09206182244 0.3270447131939
3.499429778791 0.0151884973038
900.0
27.559376642899 0.1176243134567
26.67145450765 0.141643412149 800.0
26.34584414984 0.1059342346194 700.0
102.3166650083 0.3197395781509
600.0
23.243246925224 0.1063277535463
87.921013271209 0.263000338831 500.0
32.525556669646 0.1127793227103 400.0
45.959318957412 0.1296454695555
300.0
66.550792678357 0.1963729497738
110.80760370704 0.2480582129103 200.0
21.197419843957 0.0684450107974 100.0
25.853743139312 0.0635539408538
0.0
35.220561530871 0.0915533182502 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
95.561914155016 0.1897199010423
0.0004367028016 1.184760721E-06
77.28129160959 0.150940022675
79.367488148215 0.1630727103929
17.223244869244 0.034152775866
224.13642996253 0.335835226195
51.695174946327 0.110083421947
216.67752972404 0.2819119564455
0.006135386755 1.136814296E-05
0.0001877313338 2.824301697E-07
180.18369328304 0.2455487779818
0.1587790138675

MAD MSE MAPE

Mean absolute deviation
Mean squared error
Mean absolute percent error
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37