Some more examples + Binomial: Given a population oF a very large lot and the probability of defective items is p, what is the probability of getting x defective items in a ‘random sample of toms? + Hypergeometric: Given a finite lot of W items containing D defective items, what is the probability of getting x defective items in a random sample of items is drawn from the lot without replacement? + Poisson: Given the average number of defects observed on an item is A, what is the probability of obtaining x defects on a randomly inspected item? Practice examples 1. production procsssoperstes witsaserancentoming (a0, boa cap, Evey tour acarploaksoummc! prcuctetcken, Lexmnl (5°, 0-02) Si the umber of nanconsrming te coumatase 2. 0.0 pulys ae proaucad using Lato #1, 40 are uk. fi cel teapot Arann carpe stion —— Hyin. (700, 60 %) prodicion parts cotanng x pais coming tom Labe #1 3. iret boards are produced ints of siz 20, The sample . Si size Sls crawn fom the ot at one time and lasted. the jy/ur(fW'=20, O° 3, "=2) iotcontains 3 ronconforming bosres and xa the numberof Tenconocming boats ne sample 4. Let beth number of misprints none page ofa day, (j=) rawapaper ihe average misprints pr page & 2 Suen 5, 1000 fi in pond, 100 of thm ae tagged. xis # of tagged teh among S randomly caught sh Some examples 8. Acids in abutting ate assumed to occu randomly ( ‘san average rte a 9 per jen. Tho ul be x ents te coring AD | 1 Reece 0 pam 2 argent wx Hy trrorpages nero selection of pages d 8. The proebiy theta eaesman wl make a ale on one oe Talis Each coy. thesaosran mate Oeale Lax Setown'al (19, 0-7) ena the rue of ates ade one dy. 8. The average rumbor a fowe sera YSO1® np eter fee OS eaten meow tow (100 ) Fire 1dr ol ota abi { 10, The probably tat a baseball slayer wil make aoe 4) Inew 07, Lat xdorote the numer of ree vests he Bnomal ( 7,07) ‘wilmake ina game of seven free throw attempts,Normal distribution + Measure the length of the bolt and draw a histogram fle) Normal distribution + Probability calculations: o( xa) [tio = vormef (04.9, poe) + What is the probability that x = a? flies)>a Standard normal distribution + Consider the transformation (standardization): xoN ly *) ze Xk E (é) 20 Vou(2’) (‘ ) P(X #28) - *(2>-8) 2 i Plesas) = $25) = PGs) = 09937 Example + The time to resolve customer complaints is a critical quality characteristic for many organizations. Suppose that this time in a financial organization, say, x—is normally distributed with mean y: = 40 hours and standard deviation o = 2 hours. What is the probability that a customer complaint will be resolved in greater than 35 hours? | 340 -»(:< 85") =1-0(-2 (1-425) ple > 35 ve = (2.5)Example Example Alinkage is made of three shafts with length normally distributed as’ 1N(75,0.09) —-N(25,0.25) (60,016) 1) Whats the distribution of the linkage? 0 s) 2) Suppose your customer won't accepta linkage if itis longer than 160.5 cm. How much percentage of your linkages will be rejected by the customer? What if your customer won't accept a linkage if it is longer than 159.5 cm? ea aExample 3) Suppose you are looking for a customer to sell your linkages to, Each potential customer has an upper specification limit (USL) for the linkages he can accept, meaning that he will reject a linkage if itis longer than USL.. You want to work with a customer who will accept at least 95% of your linkages. What USL shall the customer have in order for you to be willing to work with him? PC acceptn'y e dsbese | y 0-45 s Pl L< vs) xo , Example P(g ¢ bach) 70-7 P(z < Usicp) 9 °F Wt-B y (re) = USL & $ (ot) x0 + fe zp psy fo5+4 [ho z 160 18 ¢(- gu lon (2 bee \ ) fCentral limit theorem * Cental Xw ut a7 a " Central limit theorem + Central limit theorem: if x,,.x2,...,x, are independent random variables with means j. and variance a?, then as n tends to 0 the sample mean emean “¥ N(Pe) et pury ech yibadions a Note: regardless ofthe underyng probably density function ofthe _ Population data, the distbuton of te means of samples rom the =x, Population will be normally distributedCentral limit theorem + Most physical, chemical, ... phenomena that we observe, such as temperature, hardness often fit a normal distribution as they are hypothesized to be a sum of large number of independent random effects. + These random effects may not be normally distributed, but when the sum (or mean) is observed, it behaves like a normal distribution, a direct consequence of central limit theorem Example: Binomial to Normal 5 of theme fe prob of socen eB of saeco no dow Bocemiol —» Novmal(nf ; bl -p) Lognormal distribution . } 52) Za N(8,% ) exp{z) ~ dagntoeal of faibotoars 2 and L 15) exh (40-4002 )x loxp(B\-1) 2(2)- txf(o-+.u?) bin (2) = exp C0) (f(D)Chi-square distribution rs 4%), ) kn n(o) L Aid | 2 : 2 Ye MEQ tt ky 9 Ye X@ J lew oegreg Joue)em ™ Ym. (y)= 20 Student t-distribution xv w(o,t) yo Ky Xn, £-dertri betoin ” Wh F-distribution . Xv Xn You Km