MS 491 Fall 2022 Slides

Supply Chain
Management
MS 491
Hassaan Tariq
School of Management Sciences
Fall 2022
Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 1

Introduction to Supply Chain
Management

Supply Chain Definition
• A supply chain is a focus on the core activities within our organisation
required to convert raw materials or component parts through to
finished products or services. We look upstream to our suppliers and
their supply of raw materials or components into our own
organisations supply chain.

Generic Supply Chain Schematic

Main aim of Supply Chain Management
• To balance Demand and Supply
• Maximize value from People, process and system
Key stages in Supply Chain Management

1. Logistics
2. Operations
3. Marketing and Sales
4. Services
3 key Strategies to achieve Competitive
Advantage
• Cost Leadership
• Differentiation
• Response

Supply Chain Networks
• Amazon
• Toyota Motors
• Daraz
• Q-commerce Companies

Supply Chain
Processes –
Cycle View
Manufacturing Strategies / Order Fulfillment Responses in SCs
• Engineer-to-Order (ETO). With this approach, products are designed and built according to
customer specifications. This approach is frequently used for large-scale construction projects,
custom homebuilding, home remodeling, and for products made in job shops. The fulfillment
time can be relatively lengthy because of the nature of the project, as well as the presence of
other jobs ahead of the new one.
• Make-to-Order (MTO). With this approach, a standard product design is used, but production
of the final product is linked to the final customer’s specifications. This approach is used by
aircraft manufacturers such as Boeing. Fulfillment time is generally less than with ETO
fulfillment, but still fairly long.
• Assemble-to-Order (ATO). With this approach, products are assembled to customer

specifications from a stock of standard and modular components. Computer manufacturers
such as Dell operate using this approach. Fulfillment times are fairly short, often a week or less.
• Make-to-Stock (MTS). With this approach, production is based on a forecast, and products are
sold to the customer from finished goods stock. This approach is used in department stores
and supermarkets. The order fulfillment time is immediate. A variation of this is e-commerce;
although goods have already been produced, there is a lag in fulfillment to allow for shipping.
Push vs Pull
View in Supply
Chain - MTS

Push vs Pull in
SC - MTO

Supply Chain Macro-Processes in a Firm
• 1. Customer Relationship Management (CRM): All processes at the
interface between the firm and its customers
• 2. Internal Supply Chain Management (ISCM): All processes that are
internal to the firm
• 3. Supplier Relationship Management (SRM): All processes at the
interface between the firm and its suppliers

Case Study
• Lets Discuss!
• Lecture Notes to Read and Discuss in the Next Class! This will be
counted as a ‘Marked Verbal Quiz’

Let’s Discuss Things!
• Marking Schemes stay the Same, Only Addition is Project instead of
Assignment
• What is SCM
• Vertical Integration
• Reverse Logistics
• Flows in SCM
• 1st and 2nd Tier Suppliers and Customers
• 3PL vs 4th Party Logistics
• Bull-Whip Effect
• Business Process Re-Engineering

• Supplier Management
• Supplier Evaluation and Certifications
• Expansion and Contraction of SCM → Nearshoring, Outsourcing,
Right-Shoring
• Agile, Lean and Green Supply Chains

• Chapter 2 – Purchasing Management
• Purchasing vs Procurement
• Traditional vs E-Procurement
• Tender , Bid, Purchase Order,
• Financial Impact of Purchasing → Return on Assets/ROI, Profit
Leverage Effect, Inventory Turnover
• Make or Buy in SCM and their Effect
• Breakeven Analysis
• Parameters for Supplier Selection → Technology, Info Sharing, Cost,
Quality, Reliability, Capacity, Ordering System, Communication
Capability, Location, Service Levels
• Chapter 2 – Purchasing Management
• Total Cost of Ownership → Order Processing Cost, Inventory Carrying
Cost, Cost of Working Capital, Back-Order Cost
• Single vs Multiple Suppliers
• Centralized and De-Centralized Purchasing
• Global Sourcing and Players
• Public Procurement and terms
• Problems and Numericals from the Chapter???

Current Supply Chain Scenario and Reasons!
• Disruptions → Due to ????????????????????
• Impact on Pakistan?????
• Is CPEC a Game Changer?????

Cycle View of
Supply Chain
Processes
Push/Pull
view of SCM
Manufacturing Strategies and De-Coupling Points – SCM Perspective

Supply Chain Macro-Processes

What’s a Responsive SC
• Respond to wide ranges of quantities demanded
• Meet short lead times
• Handle a large variety of products
• Build highly innovative products
• Meet a high service level
• Handle supply uncertainty

Drivers of SC
Performance
24
Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM
Efficient vs Responsive SC

Supply Chain Flows
• Amazon
• Toyota
• Daraz

Procurement
Chapter 2,3 & 4

Traditional
Procurement

E-
Procurement

Advantages of E-Procurement
Time Savings Cost Savings Accuracy Real Time
Ease of
Mobility Trackability Business for Management
Suppliers

Hascol, Toyota, Suzuki Motors
Pakistan!
What had they done!
31
Make or Buy
The Decision
to Source or Backward Vertical Integration
Out-Source or
In-House
Forward Vertical Integration
Near Sourcing, Off-Shoring , Re-

Shoring
32
Cost Saving → Economies of Scale
Insufficient Capacity → Sub-Contracting

Reasons for
Lack of Expertise
Buying/Outsourcing
Quality
Geographical Advantage

Protect innovative Technology
No competent Supplier
Reasons to Better Quality Control
Make Using idle Capacity → Capacity Cushion
Control of Lead Time, Transportation Cost and

Warehousing Cost
Lower Cost → If right resources are available

Effect of Sourcing on ROA
Value of Assets = $ 500,000/

ROA in both Cases! 50,000/500000 or 70,000/500,00

Break-Even for Make or Buy
Make Simultaneous Equations
25000+ 5Q = 500+7Q
$25; 000 + $5 × (12250) = $86,250

Essential Criteria’s for Supplier Selection
• Process and Product Technologies
• Willingness to share technologies and Information → Early Supplier
Involvement
• Quality
• Cost
• Reliability
• Ordering System and Cycle Time
• Capacity
• Communication
• Location
• Service

Reasons for Choosing a Single Supplier
• Good Working relationships

• Less Variable Quality
• Lower Cost
• Transportation Economies → Truck Load (TL) OR Less than Truck Load
(LTL)
• Proprietary Product
• If dealing with less volumes
• ESI and Privacy

Reasons to Choose Multiple Suppliers
• Capacity Enhancement
• Less Risk of Supply Disruptions
• Creates Inter-Supplier Competition
• Information
• Social Sustainability → Promotion of women lead business, Social
Sustainability

Centralized vs De-Centralized Purchasing
Advantages of Centralized Purchasing
• Concentration of Purchase Volume → Quantity Discounts

• Avoid Duplication
• Specialization
• Lower Transport Costs
• No Competition within units
• Common Supply Base

Advantages of De-Centralized Purchasing
Closer
knowledge of the Local Sourcing Less Bereaucracy
requirements

Key Clauses in International Purchasing Contracts
• Product → International Standards , like ASTM
• Quantity → Units
• Delivery → Time, Schedule, FOB $ , Location, Carriage Cost
• Price → FOB $,
• Payment Terms
• Transfer of Ownership→ “Seller and buyer agree that owner ship of the
contract goods will pas to the buyer upon payment of the price to the
seller”
• Insurance → CIF (Cost, Insurance and Freight)
• Government Requirements
• Dispute Resolution → ICC (International Court of Dispute Resolution)
• Applicable Laws → (CISG→ Contract of Intl. Sales of Goods states to
Domiciled Laws)
International
Commercial
Terms Rules
43
Self-Study
• http://globalstandard.cips.org/?utm_source=CIPSwebsite&utm_medi
um=webpage&utm_campaign=AccessTheInteractiveToolScreenshotSt
ep2&_ga=2.57512111.42308048.1645167337-
1451748656.1633338469

Logistics

Logistics Basics Content
• Logistics → Definition
• Modes of Logistics→ Air , Sea, Ship, Road → Advantages and
Disadvantages
• Inbound/Internal/Outbound
• Last Mile Logistics
• 3PL vs 4PL
• Risks in Logistics

Forecasting & Demand Management
Chapter 5

• What is Forecasting??? E.g. Apple Iphone 4 – 600,000/ Pre-Orders
• Airbus delivered 29 planes out of the 202 ordered – A380
• Types of Forecasts?
• Where to Forecast and Where Not?
• Demand, Independent vs Dependent Demand?

• Demand Management in Pakistan?
• Ultimate aim of Supply Chain is to Balance Demand and Supply!

• Forecast→ A statement about the future value of a variable of
interest. Demand can be a variable.
• Long Term and Short Term Forecasting
• Famous Saying → Forecasting is In-Accurate
• Good Forecasting should be accurate, timely, reliable, meaningful

units, cost-effective and simple to use & understand.
Forecasting in different Business Environments
• Accounting. New product/process cost estimates, profit projections, cash
management.
• Finance. Equipment/equipment replacement needs, timing and amount of
funding/borrowing needs.
• Human resources. Hiring activities, including recruitment, interviewing,
and training; layoff planning, including outplacement counseling.
• Marketing. Pricing and promotion, e-business strategies, global
competition strategies.
• MIS. New/revised information systems, internet services.
• Operations. Schedules, capacity planning, work assignments and
workloads, inventory planning, make-or-buy decisions, outsourcing, project
management.
• Product/service design. Revision of current features, design of new
products or services.
Benefits of Forecast
• Reduced Inventories
• Reduced Stockout
• Smooth Production plans
• Reduced Cost
• Improved Customer Service levels
• Demand Forecasting is done at various levels in Supply Chains!

Suppliers→ Buyers → Consumers ; Invetory Forms and Where forecasting is
Required
Companies understanding about Forecasting
• To make forecast more reliable and accurate, a company must be
knowledgeable about the following factors.
• Past Demand
• Lead time of Product Replenishment
• Planned Advertising or Marketing Efforts
• Planned price and Discounts
• State of the Economy
• Actions that Competitors have taken

Steps in a Forecasting Process
• Determine the purpose of the forecast

• Establish a time horizon
• Obtain, clean, and analyze appropriate data
• Select a forecasting technique
• Make the forecast
• Monitor the forecast errors
Mandatory Reading.
https://hbr.org/1971/07/how-to-choose-the-right-forecasting-technique
2 Main types of Forecasting
• Qualitative → Qualitative techniques permit inclusion of soft
information (e.g., human factors, personal opinions, hunches) in the
forecasting process. Those factors are often omitted or downplayed
when quantitative techniques are used because they are difficult or
impossible to quantify
• Quantitative → Quantitative methods involve either the projection of

historical data or the development of associative models that attempt
to utilize causal (explanatory) variables to make a forecast

Classification of Forecasting Techniques
• Judgmental forecasts rely on analysis of subjective inputs obtained
from various sources, such as consumer surveys, the sales staff,
managers and executives, and panels of experts. For New Industries!
• Time-series forecasts simply attempt to project past experience into

the future. These techniques use historical data with the assumption
that the future will be like the past.
• Associative models use equations that consist of one or more

explanatory variables that can be used to predict demand. For
example, demand for paint might be related to variables such as the
price per gallon and the amount spent on advertising, as well as to
specific characteristics of the paint (e.g., drying time, ease of
cleanup).
Qualitative Methods
• Jury of Executive Opinion → Dominated Discussions by Top Mgt, e.g.

Fashion Trends
• Sales Forces Composite → Individual Biasis
• Delphi Method → Technology, Projects,
• Consumer Survey → Focused Groups as well

Machine Learning based Forecasting

Machine Learning Forecasting Methods
• ARIMA and S-ARIMA
• Artificial neural network
• Long short-term-memory-based neural network
• Random forest
• Generalized regression neural networks
• K-nearest neighbours regression
• Classification and regression trees (CART)
• Support vector regression
• Gaussian processes

ML vs Traditional Forecasting Results

Quantitative Methods – Traditional Forecasting
• Time series forecasting is based on the assumption that the future is
an extension of the past; thus, historical data can be used to predict
future demand.
• Since these forecasts rely solely on past demand data, all quantitative
methods become less accurate as the forecast’s time horizon
increases.

Components/Behaviours of Time Series Method
• Trend A long-term upward or downward movement in data
• Seasonality Short-term regular variations related to the calendar or

time of day
• Cycle Wave like variations lasting more than one year
• Irregular variation Caused by unusual circumstances, not reflective of

typical behavior
• Random variations Residual variations after all other behaviors are

accounted for
Variations in Time Series

Naïve Forecasting
• A forecast for any period that equals the previous period’s actual
value. 2 Methods. Reliability is low but Simple to understand. Not
much previous data required.

Averaging Techniques

Simple Moving
Average
•A moving average
forecast tends to
smooth and lag
changes in the data
MA 3 vs 5 Periods

• A weighted average is similar to a moving average,
except that it typically assigns more weight to the
most recent values in a time series.
Weighted
Moving
Average

Practice Question

Solution

Exponential Smoothing
• A weighted averaging method based on the previous forecast plus a
percentage of the forecast error.
• Next forecast = Previous forecast + α(Actual − Previous forecast)
• The closer α is to zero, the greater the smoothing

Numerical –Exponential Smoothing

Choosing Alpha – Exponential Smoothing
• Selecting a smoothing constant is basically a matter of judgment or
trial and error, using forecast errors to guide the decision.
• The goal is to select a smoothing constant that balances the benefits
of smoothing random variations with the benefits of responding to
real changes if and when they occur.
• Commonly used values of α range from .05 to .50.
• Low values of α are used when the underlying average tends to be
stable; higher values are used when the underlying average is
susceptible to change.

Trend based Forecasting
• Trend Line Forecasting
• Spear Man’s Co-Efficient

Trend-Line Equation

Trend Line Practice Question
75
Measuring Forecasting Accuracy
• Mean absolute deviation
(MAD) The average absolute
forecast error
• Mean squared error (MSE) The
average of squared forecast
errors.
• Mean absolute percent error
(MAPE) The average absolute
percent error.

Practice
Question
9.5
Complex Forecasting Numerals

Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment

Numeral – Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjusted

Solution to the Numeral

Solution of the Numeral Continued

Solution of the Numeral - Continued

Solution of the Numeral – Continued

Determining Seasonal Index in
Forecasting

Calculating Seasonal Indices

Using Seasonal Indices for Forecasting

Using Seasonal
Indices with
Linear
Forecasting

Trend Line * Seasonal Index

Regression Analysis - Forecasting
• Independent vs Dependent Variable
• Zoom Session

Demand Management
• Demand management includes activities that range from determining
or estimating the demand from customers, through converting
specific customer orders into promised delivery dates, to helping
balance demand with supply.
• Timely and honest customer order promises are possible. Physical

distribution activities can be improved significantly.
• Demand management is also concerned with identifying all sources of

demand for manufacturing capacity, including service-part demands,
intra company requirements, and promotional inventory buildup or
other needs for pipeline inventory stocking.
Demand Management VS Demand Driven Supply Chains
• Demand management is a process within an organisation which enables that
organisation to tailor its capacity to meet variations in demand or to manage the level of
demand using marketing or supply chain management strategies.
• Demand driven supply chain (DDSC), also known as demand-driven supply network
(DDSN), is a system of technologies and processes that sense and react to real-time
demand across a network of customers, suppliers and employees, this has been
significantly enabled due to the rise in the use of e-commerce systems and new
technologies due to the onset of the Internet of Things (IoT).
• In a traditional supply chain, inventory or services are provided based on a forecasted
demand and historical sales patterns, however, in a demand driven supply chain
companies that form part of the supply chain work closely to shape market demand by
sharing and collaborating information so avoiding time lags in information flow, with a
view to avoiding the bullwhip effect occurring across the supply chain.
• A demand driven supply chain focuses on the demand from the consumer data and
feeds this data through to the supply base so driving greater efficiency into inventory
availability giving a demand-pull technique.
Demand
Management
Process

Objectives and Levers of Demand Management
• The objectives on the demand side are to (1) Grow market, (2) Steal market share from
competitors, or (3) Shift buying patterns of the customers
• Companies may deal with Limited Supplies through Demand Shaping
• ERP Systems can help to reduce Demand Variability through small and frequent orders,
and integrating Up and Down Stream SCM.
• Demand characteristics (sales volume, volatility, sales duration, etc.)
• Levers Include:-
• • Pricing – incentives (discounts, MOQ’s, etc.) → MOQ (Minimum Order Qty)
• • Advertising – increasing brand awareness, and
• • Promotions – price reduction over short period of time.
Demand Shaping
• Demand shaping involves finding ways to balance supply with

demand and it can take two basic forms: influencing demand and
managing and prioritizing demand
• Another way to distinguish among methods of demand shaping is

called external balancing versus internal balancing.
• External balancing works to change customer behavior while internal
balancing works to change organizational behavior

Influencing Demand
• Influencing demand describes the activities of product and brand
management, marketing, and sales to convince customers to purchase the
organization’s products and services so that the organization’s business
objectives are met or exceeded.
• Another aspect of influencing demand is the requirement for the demand

side of the organization to influence the product development, logistics, and
supply sides of the organization to recognize and support actual customer
expectations and requirements.
• Changing how customers order goods can also be called external balancing
and the two key external balancing levers that most organizations have are
adjustments in price and Promotions and adjustments in lead time.

Influencing Demand
• Positively influencing demand over the longer term involves
• Developing products that customers are actually demanding,
• Settling on the most profitable product mix,
• Setting strategic pricing,
• Placing products at various physical or online distribution points to establish a
presence and
• Level of customer convenience, and promoting products through
advertisement

Managing and Prioritizing Demand
• Organizations must manage and prioritize demand because sales will
differ on a regular basis from planned demand in total volume and/or
in product mix and because supply often cannot produce products in
the exact timing and mix specified by the demand plan.
• The primary internal balancing levers used to manage and prioritize

demand include production flexibility and inventory holding.
• Production flexibility involves small batches of production with fast
changeovers to produce more units that are in demand now. It can also involve
prioritizing production to increase supply of certain items or prioritizing items
within distribution systems to better distribute supply to meet demand.
• For inventory, safety stock helps manage supply-demand mismatches by

preventing stockouts or avoiding lead time issues; however, it only makes
oversupply situations worse.
Managing and Prioritizing Demand – External Levers
• Management and prioritization from an external balancing perspective

can be based on customer segmentation strategies, such as fulfilling
orders to the most valuable customer segments first.
• Another example is rationing supply so that each warehouse or retailer
receives a portion of the full demand but no entity goes without a
certain minimum amount

Managing and Prioritizing Demand - Examples

Demand and Power Law Distribution
• Demand follows power law distribution, meaning large volume of
sales is concentrated in fewer products.
• The distribution of percent sales volume to percent of SKUs (Stock

Keeping Units) tends to follow a Power Law distribution (y = ax^k )
where y is percent of demand (units or sales or profit), x is percent of
SKUs, and a and k are parameters.
• The value for k should obviously be less than 1 since if k=1 the
relationship is linear.

Sources of Variation in Demand Management
Demand is also affected by Seasonality

Lumpy Demand → When items are really slow moving
The hockey stick effect is characterized by a sharp rise or fall of data points after a long flat period
Corporate cannibalism is when a product sees a decrease in sales volume or market share due to the release
of some new product that has been introduced by the same company.
Supply Chain Segmentation using Demand Profiling

Enjoy the Supply Chain Videos!

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvEh04LNJ_I → DHL Supply Chain
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNVPdN4j-8o → BASF Intelligent SCM
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMPbKVb8y8s → Inside an Amazon

Warehouse
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NssC-foGO9c → Toyota Pakistan

Factory
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sZntBOWiAQ → ERP
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKmFP5JuPTA → Digital Systems in

SCM
Resource Planning Systems
Chapter 6

Resource Planning
• Resource planning is the process of determining the production
capacity required to meet demand.
• In the context of resource planning, capacity refers to the maximum

workload that an organization is capable of completing in a given
period of time.
• A discrepancy between an organization’s capacity and demand results

in an inefficiency, the aim of Resource planning is to minimize this
Discrepancy.

Approach towards Resource Planning
• Issues if Resource planning is not Carried??????
• Capacity is What???? Issues with High & Low Capacity!!!!!!
• Have a production plan to balance Capacity!!!

Manufacturing Operations & Planning Horizons!

Terminologies
• Aggregate production plan (APP) is a long-range materials plan. The
aggregate production plan sets the aggregate output rate, workforce
size, utilization and inventory and/or backlog levels for an entire
facility.
• Master production schedule (MPS) is a medium-range plan and is

more detailed than the aggregate production plan. It shows the
quantity and timing of the end items that will be produced.
• Material requirements planning (MRP) is a short-range materials

plan. MRP is the detailed planning process for component parts to
support the master production schedule.

Systems for Manufacturing Planning
• MRP 1 → Material Requirement Planning
• MRP 2 → Capacity planning Included
• ERP → Enterprise Resource Planning

• accounting/finance,
• sales and marketing,
• human capital management (HCM),
• customer relationship management (CRM),
• purchasing management,
• inventory management,
• distribution management, and
• quality management.
• DRP → Distribution Requirement Planning

SCM KPIs –
ERP for
Efficiency

Information flow in ERP for Cash to Cash
Cycle Time -
Flow of
Information in
ERP to Calculate
Cash to Cash
Cycle Time

Aggregate Production Plan
• Aggregate production planning is a hierarchical planning process that translates
annual business plans and demand forecasts into a production plan for all
products.
• Aggregate production plans are typically stated in terms of product families or

groups. A product family consists of different products that share similar
characteristics, components or manufacturing processes.
• The objective is to provide sufficient finished goods in each period to meet the
sales plan while meeting financial and production constraints.
• Costs relevant to the aggregate planning decision include inventory cost, setup
cost, machine operating cost, hiring cost, firing cost, training cost, overtime cost
and costs incurred for hiring part-time and temporary workers to meet peak
demand.
• There are three basic production strategies that firms use for completing the
aggregate plan: (1) the chase strategy, (2) the level strategy and (3) the mixed
strategy.
Aggregate Production Plan - Example

The pure chase production strategy adjusts capacity to
match the demand pattern.
Chase Using this strategy, the firm will hire and lay off workers to
match its production rate to demand.
Production The pure chase strategy obviously has a negative

Strategy motivational impact on the workers, and it assumes that
workers can be hired and trained easily to perform the job.
Best for MTO (Make to Order) and Low Skilled employees.
In this strategy, the finished goods inventories always remain

constant but the workforce fluctuates in response to the
demand pattern.
Chase Production Strategy Example

Chase
Strategy -
Continued

Level Production Strategy
• A pure level production strategy relies on a constant output rate and
capacity while varying inventory and backlog levels to handle the
fluctuating demand pattern.
• Using this strategy, the firm keeps its workforce levels constant and
relies on fluctuating finished goods inventories and backlogs to meet
demand.
• Suitable for highly skilled labor.
• The firm allows finished goods inventories to accrue while cumulative
demand remains less than cumulative production
• This strategy works well for make-to-stock manufacturing firms, which
typically emphasize immediate delivery of off-the-shelf, standard
goods at relatively low prices. Firms whose trading partners seek the
lowest prices of stock items might select the level production strategy
Level Production Strategy – Example

• Mixed production strategy that strives to
maintain a stable core workforce while using
other short-term means such as overtime, an
additional shift, subcontracting or the hiring of
part-time and temporary workers to manage
short-term high demand.
Hybrid/Mixed
Production • Usually, these firms will then schedule
preventive maintenance, produce
Strategy complementary products that require similar
resources but different demand cycles, or
continue to produce the end items, holding
these as finished goods inventory during the off-
peak demand periods.

Master Production Schedule
• The master production schedule is a time-phased, detailed

disaggregation of the aggregate production plan, listing the exact end
items to be produced. It is more detailed than the aggregate
production plan.
• ATPs→ Available to Promise and PAB→ Projected Available Balance

MPS - Example

MPS example

Master Scheduling Grid

Dependent vs Independent Demand
• Dependent→ demand that is directly related to or derived from the
bill of material structure for other items or end products. Such
demands are therefore calculated and need not and should not be
forecast.
• Independent→ the demand for an item that is unrelated to the

demand for other items. Demand for finished goods, parts required
for destructive testing, and service parts requirements are examples
of independent demand.

Sample BOM – Bill of Materials
Bill of
Materials
(BOM)

BOM -
Schematic
Snow Shovel

Product Structure –
Diagram for Snow Shovel

Inputs and Outputs
for an MRP –
Materials
Requirement Planning

Basic MRP Record
Basic MRP
Record
Gross Requirement → Anticipated Future Use/Demand
Scheduled Receipts → Existing Orders for any item, is at the

beginning of that period/Manufactured Items
Projected Available Balance → How much is available in Inventory
Planned Order Release → Planned replenishment Orders/135

Replenishments that will be added to the system.
Capacity Management and
Planning in SCM
From Different Books – Use Slides for Preparation of this Topic – For Others book
only!

Capacity Management
• Can we do it? When is the Deadline? Can we do it now? How much?

Capacity Management
• The function of establishing, measuring, monitoring, and adjusting
limits or levels of capacity in order to execute all manufacturing
schedules (i.e., the production plan, master production schedule,
material requirements plan, and dispatch list). Capacity management
is executed at four levels:
• + Resource planning,
• + Rough-cut capacity planning,
• + Capacity requirements planning, and
• + Input/output control
• The overriding goal is to keep demand and supply in harmony by

ensuring that the network contains the right amount of capacity in
the right configuration to serve customers in a cost-effective manner
Capacity Planning
• The process of determining the amount of capacity required to

produce in the future. This process may be performed at an aggregate
or product-line level (resource requirements planning), at the master
scheduling level (rough-cut capacity planning), and at the material
requirements planning level ( capacity requirements planning).
• Capacity planning involves identifying required resources and

selecting methods of making capacity available when needed.

Capacity Control
• The process of measuring production output and comparing it with
the capacity plan, determining if the variance exceeds pre-established
limits, and taking corrective action to get back on plan if the limits are
exceeded.

Time Horizon
of Capacity
Management

Resource Planning
• Part of the resource plan is

a long-range assessment of
capacity requirements at an
aggregate level. Given long-
range demand forecasts,
you need to ask about the
resources needed-including
plant, lab or, and
equipment-to create
enough supply to match
that demand one, two, or
even five years into the
future. E.g. Labor Hours,
Productivity
Ways for Capacity Growth
143
Rough Cut Capacity Planning (RCCP)
• The process of converting the master production schedule into

requirements for key resources, often including labor; machinery;
warehouse space; suppliers' capabilities; and, in some cases, money.
Comparison to available or demonstrated capacity is usually done for
each key resource. This comparison assists the master scheduler in
establishing a feasible master production schedule

RCCP

Capacity Requirements Planning (CRP)
• Capacity requirements planning (CRP) determines in detail the

amount of labor and machinery required to carry out production
tasks specified in the MRP, translating MRP orders (measured in units)
into hours of work for each work center in each time period.

Measuring Capacity
• Available Time → e.g. Machines Operating at 8hrs a Days, 5 Days a
Week, so we have 40 Hrs available)
• Design Capacity → The maximum output rate or service capacity an

operation, process, or facility is designed for. 100 Bottles/ Day
• Effective Capacity → Design capacity minus allowances such as

personal time, and preventive maintenance. 80 Bottles/Day
• Actual Output → Looking into Human Errors and product failures, the
actual output is less than Effective Capacity. 75 Bottles/Day

Measuring Capacity
• Utilization → Actual Time

a machine is being utilized.
• Efficiency → Output to
Input as percentage. Can
be in hours as well.
• Hours utilized/Hours Work Done

Measuring Capacity
• Rated Capacity →
Rated Capacity = Available Time x Utilization x Efficiency
Kanban Cards !
Just Talk – Self -
Reminder

Distribution Requirement Planning - DRP
• Distribution requirements planning (DRP) is a time-phased finished-
goods inventory replenishment plan in a distribution network.
Distribution requirements planning is a logical extension of the MRP
system, and its logic is analogous to MRP.
• Distribution requirements planning ties the physical distribution
system to the manufacturing planning and control system by
determining the aggregate time-phased net requirements of the
finished goods, and provides demand information for adjusting the
MPS.
• DRP is driven by customer demand of the finished goods. So DRP is
independent whereas MRP deals with Dependent Demand.
• Practice Example 6.3 from Page 188 of the Primary Book!

Capacity Utilization Chart

Other related Concepts
• Line Balancing
• Theory of Constraints (TOC)
• TOC scheduling provides improved performance by focusing on the

constraining resources.
• TOC implementation requires a change in plant culture in order to
obtain the full benefits of this approach.

Chapter Ends!
Thank You for your Patience!

Inventory Management
Chapter 7

Inventory - Introduction
• A stock or store of goods.
• Inventory management is at the core of all supply chain and logistics

management.
• Inventory has a huge financial impact on a Company
• Stocking the Right amount of Inventory helps save costs

Why do we hold Inventory
• • Cover process time and make process smooth
• • Allow for uncoupling of processes → Inventory Buffers
• • Anticipation of Demand/Speculation of Price rise/Currencies
• Delayed differentiation/postponement → ZARA/Benetton
Garments/Lear
• Buffer against uncertainties such as demand, supply, delivery, and
manufacturing
• To take advantage of Quantity Discounts

Types of Inventory
• Raw materials and purchased parts
• • Partially completed goods, called work-in-process (WIP)
• • Finished-goods inventories (manufacturing firms) or merchandise
(retail stores)
• • Maintenance and repairs (MRO) inventory
• • Goods-in-transit to warehouses, distributors, or customers (pipeline
inventory)

Two key Decisions in Inventory Management
• How much ?
• When to Order?
• KPI to measure effectiveness of Inventory Management

• Inventory Turn-Over

Inventory Turn-Over Ratio Numerical

Essential Requirements for Inventory Management
• 1. A system to keep track of the inventory on hand and on order.
• 2. A reliable forecast of demand that includes an indication of
possible forecast error.
• 3. Knowledge of lead times and lead time variability. → Time interval
between ordering and receiving the order.
• 4. Reasonable estimates of inventory holding costs, ordering costs,
and shortage costs.
• 5. A classification system for inventory items

Inventory Tracking Systems
• Periodic Inventory system→ Physical count of items in inventory

made at periodic intervals (weekly, monthly).
• Perpetual inventory system → System that keeps track of removals

from inventory continuously, thus monitoring current levels of each
item. Possible through RFID, POS, SKU
• 2 Bin and 3 Bin Systems → Use multiple bins to satisfy Inventory

requirements. Helps keep a track of existing Inventory and time to
exhaust it

Costs of Inventory
• Purchase: Cost per item or total landed cost for acquiring product.
• • Ordering: It is a fixed cost and contains cost to place, receive and

process a batch of good including processing invoicing, auditing,
labor, etc. In manufacturing this is the set up cost for a run.
• • Holding: Costs required to hold inventory such as storage cost

(warehouse space), service costs (insurance, taxes), risk costs (lost,
stolen, damaged, obsolete), and capital costs (opportunity cost of
alternative investment).
• • Shortage: Costs of not having an item in stock (on-hand inventory)

to satisfy a demand when it occurs, including backorder, lost sales,
lost customers, and disruption costs. Also known as the penalty cost.
Total Cost of Inventory – Detailed Breakdown
• Total cost of Inventory = Purchase (Unit Value) Cost + Order (Set Up)
Cost + Holding (Carrying) Cost + Shortage (stock-out) Cost

Classification system for Inventory
• The A-B-C approach classifies inventory items according to some

measure of importance, usually annual dollar value (i.e., dollar value
per unit multiplied by annual usage rate).
• Typically, three classes of items are used: A (very important), B

(moderately important), and C (least important).

ABC Analysis
Finding A, B and C items! Pareto Analysis

Finding A, B and C items! Pareto Analysis, B and C items!
Pareto Analysis (80-20 Rule)

Applications of A,B and C items!
• Inventory Variation → Measure against physical checks
• Warehousing
• Product Analysis

Inventory Ordering Systems

Economic Order Quantity (EOQ)
• It is used to identify a fixed order size that will minimize the sum of
the annual costs of holding inventory and ordering inventory.
• It’s a fixed Quantity Model , so answers the basic question How much
to order?
• It suggests that the Total Cost of Inventory is minimum when Holding

Cost is equivalent to Ordering Cost.

EOQ – Total Cost

EOQ Assumptions and Replenishment Policy
• Assumptions
• – Demand is uniform and deterministic.
• – Lead time is instantaneous (0) – although this is not restrictive at all
since the lead time, L, does not influence the Order Size, Q.
• – Total amount ordered is received.
• • Inventory Replenishment Policy

• – Order Q∗ units every T ∗ time periods.
• – Order Q∗ units when inventory on hand (IOH) is zero.

EOQ – Inventory Profile

EOQ Focus

EOQ Formula’s

EOQ Numeral
• A local distributor for a national tire company expects to sell
approximately 9,600 radial tires of a certain size and tread design next
year. Annual carrying cost is $16 per tire, and ordering cost is $75. The
distributor operates 288 days a year.
• a. What is the EOQ?
• b. How many times per year does the store reorder?
• c. What is the length of an order cycle?
• d. What will the total annual carrying and ordering cost be if the EOQ
quantity is ordered?

EOQ Numeral Solution

Economic Batch Quantity
EBQ/POQ

Economic Batch Qty/Production Order Qty
• The Economic Manufacturing Quantity (EMQ) or Production Order
Quantity (POQ) model is another variation of the classic EOQ model.
• It relaxes the instantaneous replenishment assumption by allowing
usage or partial delivery during production.
• The EMQ model is especially appropriate for a manufacturing
environment where items are being manufactured and consumed
simultaneously;

EMQ/POQ

Practice Numerical
• Page 236 of the Book, Example 7.6

Process Management in Supply
Chains
Total Quality Management and Lean Six Sigma

Total Quality Management - TQM
• Total quality consists of the continual improvement of people,
processes, products (including services), and environments.
• With total quality anything and everything that affects quality is a
target for continual improvement.
• When the total quality concept is effectively applied, the end results
can include organizational excellence, superior value, and global
competitiveness.

Principles of TQM

Quality, Productivity and Profit

Types of Quality
• 1. Quality of design → Quality of design is the quality which the
producer or supplier is intending to offer to the customer.
•
• 2. Quality of conformance → Quality of conformance is the level of
the quality of product actually produced and delivered through the
production or service process of the organization as per the
specifications or design. When the quality of a product entirely
conforms to the specification (design), the quality of conformance is
deemed excellent.
• 3. Quality of performance → Quality of performance can be

assessed through measurements of physical products, statistical
sampling of the output of processes, or through surveys of purchasers
of goods or services. Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 186
Levels of Quality

8 Dimensions of Product Quality by Garwin

Dimensions of Quality of Service - SERVQUAL

Walter Shewhart
• 1930s – USA
• Control Charts & PDCA

Kaoru Ishikawa
• 1940s – Japan → Country Culture
• Fish Bone Diagram / Cause & Effect Diagram / Root Cause Analysis
• 7 Tools of Quality

W. Edwards Deming
• 1950s - Post World War -USA and Japan
• Deming’s 14 Points
1. Create constancy of purpose for improvement of product and service
2. Adopt the new philosophy
3. Cease dependence on mass inspection
4. End the practice of awarding business on price tag alone
5. Constantly and forever improve the system of production and
service.
6. Institute modern methods of training on the job
7. Institute modern methods of supervision
8. Drive out fear
9. Break down barriers between staff areas
10. Eliminate numerical goals for the work force
11. Eliminate work standards and numerical quotas
12. Remove barriers that hinder the hourly worker
13. Institute a vigorous program of education and training
14. Create a situation in top management that will push every day on the
above points
5 Deadly Diseases by Deming
• 1. Lack of constancy of purpose to plan product and service that will
have a market and keep the company in business, and provide jobs
• 2. Emphasis on short-term profits: short-term thinking (just the
opposite from constancy of purpose to stay in business), fed by fear
of unfriendly takeover
• 3. Evaluation of performance, merit rating, or annual review – You
reward Results not Process Improvement
• 4. Mobility of management; job hopping
• 5. Management by use only of visible figures, with little or no
consideration of figures that are unknown or unknowable

Quality Circles and Kaizen
Shiego Shingo
• 1960s
• Poke Yoke (Error Proofing)
• SMED (Single Minute Exchange
of Die)
• Formation of JIT Manufacturing
• More focused towards Mass

Production , but with Statistical
tools and Do-It-Right-the First
Time.

7 Types of Wastes - JIT
• Just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing, also known as just-in-time
production or the Toyota production system (TPS), is a methodology
aimed primarily at reducing flow times within production as well as
response times from suppliers and to customers.
• Waste from overproduction

• Excess transportation
• Excess inventory
• Waiting time
• Processing waste
• Wasted motion
• Waste from production defects
Kano Model – Customer Input
• 1980s Kano Model

Bottlenecks and
Theory of Constraint
Theory of
Constraints

Six Sigma and Continuous Improvement

Productivity and Product/Services Measure

Improving Productivity

Limitations to Productivity and Wastes

Lean Six Sigma

Lean Six Sigma Transformation Process

Business Canvas
• Strategic Lean Tool
• It is a visual and practical business tool to describe, test, implement,

and manage business models during their life cycle
• Business Model describes how Organization creates, develops and

captures value.

Steps in creating a Canvas
• 1. Introduction to the methodology
• 2. Current Canvas
• 3. Research environment around the current canvas:
• • Market trends
• • Technology trends
• • Needs Trends
• • Strengths and weaknesses
4. Generate future canvas prototypes
5. Feedback
6. Define Canvas future and following

Hoshin Kanri

Introduction

Key Stages of Hoshin Kanri

Establish a
Company
Philosphy

Establish
Objectives

Develop Strategies

Develop Tactics

• Team formation and Team building is an Essential Par of Lean Six
Sigma
• Teams are built when they ‘Share the pain’

Stages of
Team
Development

5S
5S

Sort
Straighten
Shine
5S in Action

Andon

Introduction

Benefits of Andons
• Improves Quality
• Reduces Costs
• Improves Response Time
• Improves Safety
• Improves Communication
• Provides a way to bring Immediate
attention to a problem
• Offers a simple mechanism to
communicate information
• Improves accountability
• Increases the speed and quality of
decision-making
Standard Work Instructions

Introduction
• Help to achieve better Quality and Productivity

• Consistency in finished Product
• Employee Safety

Elements of Standard Work Instructions

Lean Processes and
their potential
Application

Waste Identification
• Waste appears throughout organizations and is often mixed with non-
waste. There are times and conditions within our organizations where
deciding what is waste versus non-waste can be somewhat of a
moving target.
Categorization for Waste related Activities

9 Types of Waste
• 1. Overproduction
• 2. Excess inventory
• 3. Defects
• 4. Extra processing
• 5. Waiting
• 6. Motion
• 7. Transportation
• 8. Underutilized people
• 9. Employee behavior

Lean vs Traditional Organization

Traditional vs Lean Organization

Traditional Lean
Special Topics in Supply Chain
Lean, Agile, Resilient and Green SCs

Demand Driven Supply Chains
Customer Value is the Driver for Demand Driven Supply Chain.

Demand Profiling
• A critical component in SCM

SKU
Stock Keeping Unit
A stock keeping unit (SKU) is a product and service identification code for a store
or product, often displayed as a machine-readable bar code that helps track the
item for inventory.

Global Supply Chains

Global Supply Chain
Multiple Arc’s of Integration – Part of Extended Supply Chain to be actively
managed
De-Coupling Point – Point at which real demand penetrates upstream in a
Supply Chain / Simply Where the Inventory is Positioned

Lean Supply Chain Management Principles
• Lean principles require cooperative supplier relationships while
balancing cooperation and competition.
• Supplier partnerships & strategic alliances represent a key feature of
lean supply chain management

Lean Relationships
“Markets” (Armʼs Length): Lower production costs, higher coordination costs
• • Firm buys (all) inputs from outside specialized suppliers
• • Inputs are highly standardized; no transaction-specific assets
• • Prices serve as sole coordination mechanism
“Hierarchies” (Vertical Integration): Higher production costs, lower coordination

costs
• Firm produces required inputs in-house (in the extreme, all inputs)
• Inputs are highly customized, involve high transaction costs or dedicated
investments, and require close coordination
“Lean” (Hybrid): Lowest production and coordination costs; economically most

efficient choice-- new model
• Firm buys both customized & standardized inputs
• Customized inputs often involve dedicated investments
• Partnerships & strategic alliances provide collaborative advantage
Lean Principles
• Focus on the supplier network value stream
• Eliminate waste
• Synchronize flow
• Minimize both transaction and production costs
• Establish collaborative relationships while balancing cooperation and
competition
• Ensure visibility and transparency
• Develop quick response capability
• Manage uncertainty and risk
• Align core competencies and complementary capabilities
• Foster innovation and knowledge-sharing
Lean Actions

Shift in Lean Supplier Network Development

Emerging Lean Practises

How To Enable Architectural Innovation in Lean

Value Stream Transformation

Virtual Integration – Lean Networks

Advantages of Virtual Integration

Agile Supply Chain Management
• “Agility is a business-wide capability that embraces organizational
structures, information systems, logistics processes, and, in particular,
mindsets. A key characteristic of an agile organization is flexibility”
(Christopher, 2000)

4 Characteristics of Agile SCM
Market Sensitive – Read Process Integration– Integrate
Market and Understand Process with Suppliers / NPD
Demands / Direct Access to
POS – Demand Driven
Network Based– Based on Virtual – No Boundaries / IT /

Supplier and Distributors / IS
Collaboration and Relationship
Management Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 263
Agile SCM Transformation Model

Green Supply Chain Management
Closed Loop SCMs

Reverse Logistics

Resilient Supply Chains
• The adaptive capability of a supply chain to reduce the probability of
facing sudden disturbances, resist the spread of disturbances by
maintaining control over structures and functions, and recover and
respond by immediate and effective reactive plans to transcend the
disturbance and restore the supply chain to a robust state of
operations
• Resilience is defined as the ability of a system to return to its original

state or a more favourable condition, after being disturbed

Objective of Resilient SCs
• Lower Risk
• Secure
• Transparent
• Adaptive
• Fast
• Optimized

4 Components of Resilient SCMs
• 1. Focus Event → Un-Expected, Negative, Risk Based,

• 2. Performance Level during Disruptions and How to Improve
• 3. Speed → Diminishing the time to return
• 4. Adaptive Framing→ Anticipate, and adapt to sustain and recover ;
Prepare, Respond, Recover, Maintain

Research Based factors that help to Measure & Build Resilient SCMs
• Supply Reliability Accessibility, Connectivity and Availability of Suppliers
• Structural and Supplier Complexities
• Demand , Supply and Transport Capacity Sources Criticality, Demand and Variance in Demand
• Resilience in SCM Network Flow and Cluster Reliability
• Sustainability
• Risk and Revenue Sharing Robustness
• Trust Recovery, Impact , Performance Loss,
• Visibility Inbound and Outbound Flows
• Risk Mgt Culture NPV, Customer Service Levels, Investments
• Adaptive Capability Geographical Segregation
• Structure Backup Supplier
• Sourcing Strategies that allow Switching Suppliers Re-Routing

• Flexible Sourcing Restoration Budget
• Strategic Stock Emergency Costs
• Lead Time Reduction Physical Protection of Assets
• Flexible Transportation Supply Chain Mapping
• Agility
• Collaboration
• Information Sharing
Strategies for
Building
Resilient SCs

What else can be done to build more Resilient SCs
• Redundancy→ Stock More Inventory, Work on Reduced Capacity
Utilization and Add more Suppliers to the Network, Cross-Facility
Training
• Flexibility → Adopt Standardized Process i.e. Modular Designs and

Multi-Product plants, Use Con-Current Process Design, Using Modular
and Semi-Finished Designs and giving sufficient time to postpone
before Manufacturing, Allign the procurement Strategy with Suppliers
Relationship(Deep, Broad and New)
• Cultural Change → Continuous Info to Employees, Distribution of

Power to Smaller Teams, Condition the teams for Disruptions,
MITs Approach on Building Resilient SCs
Stress-Test for Various SCs

What are the Companies Doing in Response to COVID

SCs Investment Goals and Shift

SC Expectations in 3 Years

SC Risk Assessment based on Supplier & Manufacturing Locations – US Perspective

Resilience and Exposure to Risk

• Manufacturing Processes Basics
• Casting / Heating / Molding / Injection / Extrusion / Drawing / Joining

/ Welding / Machining / Mixing / Grinding / Milling(TAPERING /
DRILLING) / Polishing / Surface Treatment / Soldering / Sintering /
Laser Cutting / Water Jet Cutting / High Beam Energy Processes /
Compaction / Allignment /

Agile Manufacturing
• Agile manufacturing represents a very interesting approach to
developing a competitive advantage in today’s fast-moving
marketplace. It places an extremely strong focus on rapid response to
the customer – turning speed and agility into a key competitive
advantage. An agile company is in a much better position to take
advantage of short windows of opportunity and fast changes in
customer demand.
• Reacting quickly to Market Demands and Trends

Key Components of Agile Manufacturing

The End
Good Luck for your Finals

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Supply Chain

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 1

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 2

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 3

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 4

• Maximize value from People, process and system

Key stages in Supply Chain Management

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 6

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 7

• Assemble-to-Order (ATO). With this approach, products are assembled to customer

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Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 14

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 15

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 17

• Disruptions → Due to ????????????????????

• Is CPEC a Game Changer?????

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Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 29

Time Savings Cost Savings Accuracy Real Time

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 30

What had they done!

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM

Near Sourcing, Off-Shoring , Re-

Insufficient Capacity → Sub-Contracting

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 33

Reasons to Better Quality Control

Make Using idle Capacity → Capacity Cushion

Control of Lead Time, Transportation Cost and

Lower Cost → If right resources are available

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 34

Value of Assets = $ 500,000/

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 35

Make Simultaneous Equations

$25; 000 + $5 × (12250) = $86,250

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 36

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 37

• Good Working relationships

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 38

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 39

Advantages of Centralized Purchasing

• Concentration of Purchase Volume → Quantity Discounts

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 40

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 41

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Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 47

• Demand, Independent vs Dependent Demand?

• Ultimate aim of Supply Chain is to Balance Demand and Supply!

Hassaan Tariq, SMGs, GIKI, Fall 2022, MS 491, SCM 48

• Long Term and Short Term Forecasting

• Famous Saying → Forecasting is In-Accurate

• Good Forecasting should be accurate, timely, reliable, meaningful