Notes from 9th Bullet Proof Seminar by Tamilnadu Investors Association:

Speaker 1 *Ramesh Damani*

- Lessons and Learnings - from the life of a legend by Ramesh Damani

- Right people born at the right time - RK Damani, RK Jhunjhunwala, Nemish Bhai of Enam.
They all came to the market at the same time just went things opened up.

- All 3 had widely successful careers in the markets, but Rakesh became the public face of
the markets and the man who always spoke about the India of tomorrow.

- Markets give you what you want - if you want daily fun, it'll give you that, if you want to be
the king of the markets, it'll make you the king of the market.

- If you see the David Goliath sculpture, it will give you a similar feel as Rakesh
Jhunjhunuwala. The brain power, the readiness to fight - so much so that the PM
acknowledgement him on twitter.
- Rakesh Jhunjhunuwala started with Rs 5000 and ended with 30k Crores, that's a CAGR of
68.19%

- There are 3000 billionaires in the world. The only billionaire in the world who made it solely
from the markets is Rakesh Jhunjhunuwala. (Buffet's initial capital came from his equity
investment partnership).
- We feel a 23-24% return is genius, but here's a man who compounded in 68% rupee
terms and 50% dollar terms. This record will still stand for years to come. It can't be easily
violated.
- Critics say he was loud mouthed, arrogant, but people used to say about Mohd Ali that he
always proclaimed how cool he was and he was uncouth etc. But he did it his way. Nobody
could it better than him.
- The 30 years that I knew RJ, he was always bullish through India despite multiple
barricades. He always felt India grows not because of its politicians but despite his
politicians.

- One of the key moments was 1988 budget, everyone was bearish, lot of rumours but RJ
was bullish. He became a contra player. Later by 92-93 he became a player and become
top 5 voices thanks to contra actions against Harshad Meht.

- He later went through a slump, introspection. He was not successful with technology
stocks. But he was bullish and became a billionaire

- 2013 to 2022 bull market cemented his position at the voice of the capital markets.
- Even during covid he used to say new bull market is starting. We used to stare at him in
disbelief but he was right - he had an uncanny sense of when new bull markets began.

- Rakesh began when sensex was 1027, total PAT of cos was 5000 crores, software
exports was 12mln dollars.
*Madhu Kela* steps in..

- Ramesh Damani: No one was close to RJ in the last 5 years than Madhu Kela.
Secrets of RJ success

1. Bullish on India: One of the founding principles of his wealth was he was inherently
bullish on India and the way to express it was to remain invested.

2. Focus: Even in his ICU bed he was thinking about stocks.

Madhu Kela: He was my friend, philosopher and guide. I will be honest - i joined in 1991
and met RJ in 1998 and in between i was a broker making income. I didn't know wealth
could be made. I was enjoying life and making money. In 1998 I met RJ for a deal to sell
shares of United Breweries because perennial was closing and their block of Indian liquor
stocks had to be liquidated. Someone told me the only person who can immediately buy
would be RJ. I made a presentation and narrated the story to him and trust me in 5 mins, he
said he will buy it. These were days of hand delivery where cash was taken first and then
shares were given. RJ was an open book, he will abuse us, he shared enormous wisdom,
he was really large hearted and showed to the world that the more you share, the more you
can grow. His portfolio was always open and he felt "mere bolne se thodi kuch hoga, voh
toh lega, rakhega tab kuch hoga". He has made portfolios quietly for 100s of relatives. This
was his real strength. In 2001, he chose 9 of us and gave us an award - my young
entrepreneur friends. He was extremely kind. And he has pledged to give 25% if his wealth
to charity.
Saw the big opportunity and Putting money on the table: Ramesh Damani: he used to
always put the money on the table. In 2001-2, his brokers called and said Titan is available
at a cheap lot and he bought. After that he met the management etc. But that's not justice
to his style - truth is he already worked out the Indian middle class, the growth ahead, the
Tatas background etc. So when opportunity came, he used to always be ready.

Madhu Kela: His biggest strength was his broad sense of the market and his direction. He
would take a broad judgement.

During covid, bhel was at 23/-. So i called RJ, explained the thesis for 5 mins and before
call ended he bought 2.5 crore shares.
5. Uncanny sense of timing:

He would know when to stake, how much to stake. He was not a risk taker. He knew when
there's a margin of safety.

6. Invest first, investigate layer

7. Trader / Investor

He would have lost crores in trading bets but for him "Raat gai baat hai". He was able to
take losses. His magic formula was he able to get trading income and invest them.

Some of his futuristic investments (disclaimer: these are not recos).

Fortis (logic was low # of hospital beds per 10k people)

Akasa Air (logic was biz isn't as capital intensive as before, pricing is better and compared
to China india is under penetrated). This investment was the most hyped up and people
were concerned. But his downside was limited because he was just investor not a promoter.
Lease scheme also helped. He gave 40-45% sweat equity to the business builders who
were going to run it. He closed the Akasa deal in 48 hours.

Wabag: why was June 9 2019 was important in chennai? Chennai ran out of water. He
invested in a Chennai based co that does water recycling - va tech wabag.

- Today the heart grieves over what it has lost but the spirit rejoices over what it has left.

Speaker 2 *Madhu Kela*

- RJ's biggest quality was his contrarian view and absolute bullishness on India. Once you
are clear on this picture of India, then short term blips can be easy to handle.

- What is the common thing about the world's best 20 investors ? None of them have a
single rupee invested in India. But world over, there are only 2 markets worth investing in -
US and India. China, Russia have their own problems.

- China - has a huge real estate problem going on. The most successful person in china has
just vanished (Alibaba founder).

So India is today a market which has the right potential. the amount of money which will
come into India will surprise even the most bullish people. Last 1 week nifty is up 5% and
S&P is down 5%. So in a way markets are telling us something.

- Lot of reforms in the last few years, privatisation, clean up of PSUs etc and we will see
these getting to life.
- We need to do research on possibilities of India in the next few years. See how beautifully
we tackled covid. It's not a small feat. See what UK did - they took a loan and distributed to
people. People bought pizza and beer and the money vanished. But UK has a permanent
debt on its balance sheet. What did we do? of course we helped poorest of the poor but we
opened up supply side efforts.

- 2 sectors

Biggest thing for me is headwind and tailwind. If you find a tailwind and invest in mediocre
co you will still make money.
If you have headwinds and bought the best RE cos, you didn't make money.

So what I look for is - are we able to identify tailwinds ? I believe Indian financial sector has
amazing tailwinds.

- 17L crores of provision is being made, which is more than 20% of financial sector lending.
We have never seen this kind of clean up. If this happened anywhere else.. i couldn't find
any other similar example.
I think financials are the most leveraged play on the economy. Look at Jan Dhan,
bankruptcy code, new technologies.

At this scale as will have recoveries and PBT might be higher than PPOP. If we truly believe
all these provisions are being made, then some of it will be written back. Valuations are
attractive, ROE is improving, consolidation has happened and pricing power is back.

- Not more than 10 banks have ability to give more than 1000 cr loans

Another sector - EPC. If trillion dollars are to be invested in India then these cos will be in
action, not Nykaa.

Market cap of Nykaa is double of all EPC cos put together (ex L&T).

Many ex prominent players are retired hurt in this sector.

So competition has reduced. Someone was saying it's so difficult to even get a bank
guarantee today that he is ready to pay 4% for just bank guarantee. So that gives an edge
to larger cos. Significant de-leveraging has happened.

Many cos are just trading at just 2-4x ebitda and they will do 20% rice if you take a 3 year
view.
- so look for tailwind in a sector and buy a mediocre co, you will still make money.

- I invested in a Hyd co called goldstone technologies. They were getting into EV.
Management was not trusted. People said i have got stuck and no exit. But i said i have a
different vision.

It happened, it was a 10 bagger and another hyd co acquired this.

- Similarly if you invested in RE cos in 2008-13 you didn't make any money.

One of the prominent things i learnt from Rakesh Ji - "remember the only rule is there are
no rules. In investing if you go by the rule book, your mind will be closed. And you will lose
out on opportunities".
RJ could easily buy a SAIL and a Titan. But he knew how long to keep a SAIL and how long
to keep a Titan.

Q&A

Question: Given RJ's future bets, Where do you see insurance as a future sector?

Ramesh Damani & Madhu Kela: RJ high conviction bet was Star Health. And today it has
captured a significant market share. People said he is buying expensive, but he knew what
we was doing. Through covid it has gone up 5x.

Question: couple of infra cos I'm looking at - I've observed that order book is increasing
faster than sales. So sector facing execution challenges post covid? + Inflation and RM
price increase will not this be a challenge? Especially bidding in govt sector - how will this
pan out or will they get into vicious circle?
Madhu Kela: Order book is a strength not challenge. It shows sustainability. You spoke
about margin headwinds - most of it is behind us, commodity prices have gone down and
most cases it's a pass through.

Question (from Aarati Krishnan): Portfolio construction - after RJ death his positions have
come out in public. RJ was tightly concentrated or they became big because winners ran?

Madhu Kela: Specifically Titan - he let it run, it was never such a big position.. he had the
conviction to hold. Even during the correction during demonetization. Not handling others
money also helps. It is better to be wrong on own conviction than being right on borrowed
conviction.

Question: it's a consensus that India is bullish, we will go from 3 to 10 or 15 trillion etc. So
what could go wrong?

Madhu Kela: Consensus need not be bad. HDFC was a consensus for 20 years but you still
made money right? Also, for the average Indian there is still no consensus. One thing is
being bullish and second thing is putting money to work.
Question: What's your view on API companies - China +1 etc.

Madhu Kela: Im bullish selectively. In pharma it's tough to calculate profits compared to
cement or steel. It's very complex, which molecules will work, how much money you will
make. So if you get a pharma co right, you will make disproportionate reward because it's
not easy to analyse a pharma co. Compared to China india's size is very small and we have
potential to double turnover in 3-4 years. You will see serious investment in this sector but
you will have to get a co that is going to be a winner and not the entire sector. Success rate
is not 20-30%. Most are doing medicre job, exceptional job is being done by very less
companies.

Question: with respect to pharma and chemical sectors, india is dependent on China for
RM. If china invades Taiwan, will it impact ?

Madhu Kela: I don't worry about things I cannot control. When they actually invades we will
see.

Question: What is exit strategy on tailwinds?

Madhu Kela: There is no formula. Only comes with experience and understanding of
broader markets. You get enough signs, there is euphoria, valuations become challenging.
Management starts doing WIP etc. You see signs like in the past. We did a infra fund in
reliance and got 7k crores and 20L investors, so obviously you understand when there's
euphoria. But for EPC these are early days

Question: Regarding portfolio sizing. So do you size depending on upside or downside.

Madhu Kela: I size only on the downside. You want to buy as cheap as possible. You look
at someone and say 30% of portfolio is in one co, but can you emotionally handle it? Can
you handle a 50% drawdown. So you construct what you can emotionally handle.

Question: How are we supposed to balance small and mid with large caps? Big cos will
become giants or small cos will grow and disrupt.
Ramesh Damani: Look at bargains, size doesn't matter.

Madhu Kela: Look at smaller cos because you will get earnings and valuation upside.
Question: RJ as a trader and his successful bets and trading to become wealth?

Ramesh Damani: it would require another seminar. But he was one the extraordinary
investors who could do both trading and investing.

Speaker 3 *Ridham Desai*

- My job today is to make you feel underinvested.

10 reasons to be unambiguously bullish on India:

1. Raghuram Rajan said on MNREGA - If you take profits away from corporate sector to
labour, labour will spend and it will create demand in the economy. it tripled wages.
This was a bad idea because india had surplus labour. Tripling wages overnight caused
inflation.

- Then to tackle inflation, Raghuram Rajan said lift rates to +ve rates. India essentially
passed a law to mandate the central bank to target inflation. Earlier RBI would do anything
the government wants it to. Now parliament would fix the CPI, tolerance etc.
2. In 2019 September, the government said it's time to reverse. We can't depend on labour
to create growth. They went back to Vajpayee's formula to feed the corporate sector to
invest, to create jobs, growth etc. They reduced corporate tax rates.
- Foreigners think india is expensive but - india doesn't trade 20times earnings, it trades at
7times 4 year forward rates. India is in a major profit boom. So stocks are relatively quite
inexpensive.

- India has been largely dependent on foreign portfolio flows to fund the current account
deficit. Foreign funds are sensitive to global events, so Indian markets also became
sensitive to global events.

Classic example is 2008, Indian banks weren't concerned with us banks but Indian stocks
fell in 2008.

- Things are changing now - FDI policy of Modi. Foreign portfolio kept selling last 1 year,
but Indian markets kept going up.

So between 2004-2008, total FPI was 52bn dollars and FDI was 40bn dollars. In the last 8
years, FPI was 45 bn dollars and FDI was 550 bn dollars.
So as a country we don't care about what FPI is doing anymore. RBI is raising rates slower
than the us fed for the first time.
If you look at last 4 US bear markets, india did equally poorly but i think now if there's a
recession in the US, india will still do.

3, 4 and 5. Technicals

- You must realise that in a growing economy, retirement funds grow in size.

- economy is 3.5tn dollars, household savings is 20% - 700bn dollars. Even if 20% of this
goes to equities.. There's this persistent bid on stocks that's going to continue.
4. Technical - India will get into global bond indices (Russia will go out). So that's 30bn
inflow and recurring 15bn $ into markets.

- So indian banks will no longer need to fund government bonds / deficit. That will open up
capital for Indian banks.

5. We have 3.5% share of global market shares. Foreign investors own 0.6% of global
market cap into India. They ought to own more and India's share of global GDP and mcap
will rise.

Problem for foreign investors is low free float. In 2023, One quarter of global GDP growth
will come from India. If you aren't weighted towards India you will be under invested.

6. Major de-leveraging of balance sheets has happened. Corporate India is the most under
levered compared to US and India. Growth outlook is strong and invariably they are going
to borrow. So a big loan boom is going to happen.

7. Consumption - think about India. Per capita income is extremely low. Bulk of income is
spent in basic stuff. Saving culture is good though. Nominal GDP Will grow by 10% and
real GDP will be 7% so on a real basis we will add 300$ to per capita income. So this
excess growth due to 10% growth will bring 40% increase in discretionary spending.

8. Pandemic was a problem for all of us - but something happened which was hugely
beneficial to india. Typical ceo realised that there's not much difference between work from
home and office. So not much difference from work from office and work from India. India's
share of global services is growing.
We didn't gain share of global trade in last 7 years but now there is extreme focus on
gaining global trade share.

9. Go back 7-8 years, center of global consumption was us and production was china. It
was a bipolar world. Now it's a multi polar world - production gets more distributed.

India is unique because it can attract production and consumption. Samsung phones and
iPhones are going to be made into India.
MNCs are in India's favour. All boards are discussing how much and where to invest in this
country.
10. Pent up consumption - last 12 months we sold as many cars as sold 12 years ago. So a
pent up demand that we are underestimating is coming that is going to be very large.

So in summary, covid related services exports, bipolar world, corporate balance sheets that
are going to lever, pent up demand - all relate to various sectors.
Hopefully I've convinced you that you need to buy more stocks.

However some risks: China-Taiwan, 2024 is a risk factor (vajpayee lost and market tanked
17%), there is a US recession, etc.
Ideally we don't want a current account deficit because that means lower investment vis a
vis savings. However if terms of trade (price of exports/imports - earlier was driven by oil)
become favorable, then it's good for the economy.

Our terms of trade will improve dramatically in the next few years without going into current
account surplus.

- Going back into history, consciously, taking John Kenny's advice (associate of Shannon) -
which is lever up if your winning probability is higher. Buffett, Munger, Damanis, etc have all
used this formula to size up their bets.

Question from Madhu Kela: Your view on green hydrogen?

Ridham Desai: Oil will lose share as a % of intensity and it also lost share in the last 8 years,
so this will create disruption. In the short run, I don't worry much about oil, i worry about
ammonia. India imports fertilizers from Europe and with ammonia plants shut down in
Europe due to gas bill, our import bill of ammonia will shoot up. Risk is fertilizer import risk
will be bigger than oil.

Speaker 4 *Vishal Khandelwal*

The 'Art' of investing

- Buffett says secret of happiness is having low expectations. So have low expectations
from this presentation.
- (A picture of a night sky with asian pictures share price in foreground)

- Another picture with something in the foreground. People thought it's dhfl, but it's nothing
- just a random picture. Idea is not to draw references from the past.

Best software to write fiction is not word but excel.

- How to learn anything? Feynman technique

1. Pick and study a topic

2. Explain the topic to someone like a child

3. If you're unable to teach the child, you should go back and revise
- I use this technique to teach my daughter (now 18, 8 years then).
- So i asked her to find out companies of things we use on a daily to day basis. Peter Lynch
way. She made a list of stocks and it outperformed.

- But people lose money - it's because of Dunning Kruger effect - i.e the less competent
you are, the more confident you are. So only once u gain competence, you realise you
didn't know much.

- People IQs are becoming better but investing horizons are becoming shorter. Could also
be because machines are now trading and they have short horizons.

- So india may have a bull market to carry but do you have the legs to carry the bull run?

- Investing isn't a 160 iq beating 130 iq guy. It's knowing yourself, your temperament.

3 tools to become a better investor:

1. Patience isn't waiting but it's how do you act while you're waiting. Stocks almost always
recover well from recessions, wars, catastrophes. Why value investing works is because
people don't have long term horizons.

MSFT did nothing from 1999 to 2016. 0% price return. People who held onto such a stock
didn't make any money. So what's the relevance of buy and hold?

MSFT at 1996 at 7$, with 17 years of 0 return still gave a 16% return over a 26 year period.
In the 17 year period, MSFT lost the plot. Now reason for owning MSFT Has changed. So
only if you have a sound process for investing will you make money.
Buy and hold isn't same as buy and forget. Focus on sticking to the right process.

2. Humility

It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. What we have control over is risk, cost,
time and behaviour. But what we try to control is return.
- It's important to know what you don't know.

- Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes little sense for those who know
what they are doing.

- Your behaviour has to be such that you can survive the worst of days.
- Stock market is the biggest humiliator.

- It's not the game of perfection. Prasanth Jain said 69% were winners, 25% were losses,
and 1% were big losses and 5% were big winners. What helped him was big losses were
just 1% of his portfolio and 1 winner in the big winner took care of the rest and he got an
impeccable track record.

3. Rationality

Have a rational or reason for stock picking. Look at biz in circle of competence, then look
for financial stability, look for features and then check for price. Simple framework.
Have a process.

Average lifespan of a business has shrunk globally. Businesses don't survive beyond 15-16
years now. So look at Return on capital over long run.
Follow the owner (business) and not the dog (markets). Dogs will move around while
walking but their speed over the journey and direction will be the owners.

- I look at stocks only for financial independence and making my soul grow.

Speaker 5 *Pankaj Tibrewal* (Kotak MF)

- I firmly believe that if you can catch right tailwinds and right sectors with right stocks, your
journey is done
- We could see massive tailwinds from a market share perspective.

- What I'm seeing today is an inflexion point in India's manufacturing sector.

- There's a small place called morbi in Gujarat. It has become world's 2nd biggest cluster of
tile manufacturing in the world. Cheaper than China, better than Italy. 700 factories, no TCS,
no sun Pharma - dominated by Gujjus. 5000cr export opportunity. Last year they did
1200cr, this year they may do 1800 crores.

- Real opportunity is being senses across from an export oriented manufacturing

perspective. Real opportunity not from China but from euro+1.

- any stocks discussed are just for explanation, not to be considered as a recommendation.
- Speak to auto cos in Chennai. They used to go to OEMs and wait for 2-3 years for
approval. Now OEMs are going to these cos and asking - can you make this for us in 6
months.
- Aside China, no other country can produce engineers and workers for shop floor overnight

- Worth visiting Sri City near Chennai. They are saying 200 cos are applying to setup at Sri
City. When Foxconn pegatron etc make in chennai, nearby factories have to come to
support it.
- A Portfolio Co does contract manufacturing that has tied up with 6 brands. They earlier
only used to manufacture in Brazil and China. Now they are looking at India.

- If we can position ourselves well especially on the skilled manpower side, this is an
inflexion point.

- You can wait for the final approval in investing, gotta begin early when the probability is in
your favour.
- Cycle has just begun.

- 2nd field is the IT stack that India has initiated. If in 2019 i said that India will vaccinate
140cr people in 9 months, nobody would've believed. But India has executed.
- 3rd trend is India real estate residential revival. Finally when construction wakes up, it
ignites 200 industries around it.

- 4th is the financial sector.

When someone asks "Market kya lagta hai" - I say it doesn't matter. For more than 16 years,
no time like now.

- Managing money is not easy. It looks easy from outside but it's something that is an art
and science along with some luck. So today I want to take you through my learnings, what
has worked for me over a period of time managing active funds:

(Illustrative purposes only, not recommendation)

- Invert bullet proof investing - What is not bullet proof investing. Invert, always invert. There
should not be frequent drawdowns, permanent loss of capital, significant decline of entire
portfolios during drawdowns.

- In India before business, management evaluation is extremely important. If I see a

company, i first call up CA of that city and get an idea of the management of that company.

- So how to evaluate managements?

1. Trust

2. Culture
3. Integrity and Passion

4. Scalability

- Management meetings are important.

- Tigers don't change their stripes. Poor managements seldom change.

- Choose the business wisely. Our of 5000 cos, we only track is 435 cos. Rest don't fit our
criteria.

- Growth is good but not at any cost. Excessive leverage can impact the best of plans.
Look at Sintex.

- Process is very important irrespective of which philosophy you look at.

- Valuations also matter, price is important. If you don't buy at right price, long time
correction awaits you if not for capital erosion. Growth is the horse and valuation is the cart.
Till the co drives out growth valuations will sustain.
- The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not impact. Behaviour is
important. Not KYC, KYS know your self is important. In March 2008, 2020 were you strong
or were you puzzled ?

- at no point comprise your integrity and principles. Rome was not built in a day, but
Hiroshima was destroyed in a day.

- Try to be 1% better everyday.

- Remain focused, stay clear of noises.

- Make reading a habit.

My only piece of advice is read anything under the sun.

- Humility is not thinking less of yourself. It is thinking of yourself less. - Cs Lewis

- Spiritual Anchoring - practice Vipassana or meditation atleast once. Good times will also
pass, bad times will also pass. You will not be exuberant, you will not be drained out. This
is the greatest part of success.

Question: Last 2-3 years banks have started giving gold loans affecting NBFCs. Many
NBFCs went to microfinancing. Whats your view ?

Pankaj Tibrewal: it's still a great business to be in from a long term perspective.

Question: Fund managers are supposed to invest for the long run but you are evaluated
every month - so are you really investing for the long run?

Pankaj: the 2 funds i manage have the lowest churn ratio in the industry. Provided you
manage risk and portfolio construction well, it will help you over a period.

Question: You started off with manufacturing as a Sector to look at going forward. Specific
question regarding PLI scheme on textiles - what do you think will textiles benefit?

Pankaj Tibrewal: PLI is just an incentive. My first principle is selecting the right business. So
if you want a textile business that is growing without compromising on Return on capital. If
you find a jewel in that industry, go for it. PLI is just an added advantage.

Question: Climate change and other issues are heating up and ESG is taking off - there is
also an upcoming social stock exchange and carbon markets - your views?

Pankaj Tibrewal: ESG is the biggest theme world has been. As investors we have been
already evaluating on Social and Governance. In environment we have to progress. We
need to incorporate all 3 in stock selection process, but priority could be different at
different points.
Question: We do see trends in auto, EV, etc - do you see a shift in the manufacturing space?
For example Truck makers like Ashok Leyland are not talking about trucks but offering
solutions.

Pankaj Tibrewal: Absolutely. Intel was the leader in RAM with 86% market share. Disruption
happened, it became a commodity. Over this period Intel transformed to chips. People
questioned them but rest is history. So another important thing in biz is to see disruption
and see if you are transforming yourself.
We are seeing this shift in automobiles, in automation. I think it's a great one to be in.

Speaker 6 *Prashant Jain*

- India is positioned uniquely. Extremely well positioned. Why? Look at demographics. India
should cross China's working age population soon. India has many other advantages..
- Work from Home should open large opportunities for India. In the not too distant future lot
of R&D, accounting, back office etc jobs will come to India. Wage inflation in white collar is
happening after 20 years. No other country offers as much skilled workforce for services.
Fast transition towards wfh will work to our advantage. Large global cos are setting up
captive here or outsourcing to India.

- 2nd is the manufacturing opportunity. India did not grab the opportunity when it was in
our reach, but we are getting second chance to grab that. Manufacturing wages in china
adjusted to higher productivity, india is still cheaper by 20%. For the first time Indian cos
are not complaining about inability to compete with China.

What has changed is due to fast inflation in China, our cost competitiveness has improved.

On the margin India is improving it's competitiveness.

From where we are (low base) we should be able to incrementally improve. Geopolitically
also we are positioned. In China, large infra came from MNCs while china gave them low
cost. It's imperative that the same will happen in India. Indian govt is quite supportive. By
and large India's manufacturing should improve on a low base. Observe what is happening
in Europe - Europe still made high end products. But with this massive energy inflation, it
will render large parts of European manufacturing uncompetitive. It should shift not just
from China but from Europe also. countries like Vietnam Thailand will also get the benefit
but cake is large.
- Most emerging markets have moved to mid or high income through his exports. So twin
opportunity of higher exports from services and manufacturing should set the base of faster
economic growth.

- The EOBR rankings - from 160 to 60, the direction is extremely good. GST has stabilized.
Focus is on reducing logistics cost.
- If you look around the world the way countries are being governed, if you look at middle
East, Ukraine etc, i think we are in a far better situation in terms of governance.

- Also look at startups have evolved over the last few years. India is at the forefront of
digital adoption in the world. Large flow of capital to entrepreneurs and a very large number
of budding entrepreneurs are being created.

- Risks?

We are exposed to oil. If oil goes to 120-150$ it could put pressure. Shift towards esg has
caused under investment in oil and gas and reason for high oil prices is under investment.
As india shifts to electric vehicles, we should overcome this..
- 2nd risk is enablement of digital framework. It is becoming easy to transfer to beneficiaries
and we are seeing populist measures come into place like free electricity. Fortunately a
debate has been triggered and people are talking about this..

- This was my take on economy. Coming to corporate profitability, it is back at average

rates now. Commodity prices have been higher than average but bank profits are back at
average and capex has also been on track.

One risk is metal prices. If china has an impact on prices it could impact aggregate growth,
but thankfully weight of commodity companies is lower in India.
- India's market cap to GDP and similar ratios is slightly higher than long term averages.
There is some stress in consumption space. I have some concerns in consumption space
and i still feel it's expensive. I feel underlying growth doesn't justify the multiples.

- The fact that FIIs sold yet DIIs absorbed all the selling is a cause of celebration. Equities
have become a growing asset class and this is a very important shift and this should reduce
the volatility Indian markets have experienced in the past.
- India is expensive but we also need to bear in mind what is positioned..

US is grappling with much higher structural inflation, China has its own problems, our
neighbourhood is in trouble but India in a relative sense is extremely well placed. If foreign
flows are to come back, that could sustain this momentum. Long term markets look good
and if you see longer run, you should be okay paying a higher price.

- In 1992 markets were at 40 PE. If you invested in markets then, then growth over the
years diluted the impact of higher PE..

Question: What is likely earnings growth in FY 23-24 for banks?

Prashant: 35% of index is banks, inflation is supporting credit growth, capex is supporting
credit growth. So things look good there.

Question: IT?
Prashant: IT is still trading at a 40-50% premium to pre covid levels. I am not convinced
that shift to digital will give growth ahead. Also base in IT is very large. So over time if
growth rates revert to pre covid, then the multiples are high. Dividend yields are decent so
maybe if you hold long enough some returns are possible.

Question: any views on REITs? From wfh perspective

Prashant: I think high quality office space is consolidating very fast across 3-4 entities. So
even though there's wfh, i think it's a good asset class. At current prices one can expect
high single digit returns over longer periods.

Question: US rates and impact on India?

Prashant: Unemployment in US are extremely low, wage inflation is strong so wage inflation
should be sticky. And fed has clearly said they are looking at inflation, so yields should go
higher there. But it is becoming less relevant from an equities perspective.

Question: Your view on oil? Not in price terms but demand?

Prashant: It's a tough call to take. All experts are working on this day and day out. But i
don't have a clear answer. High oil is a risk but what we have seen is that when an industry
is going out of favour, then investments in that industry drop faster than demand. Or supply
will reduce faster than demand.

Question: What are the key advices for retail investor building a LT portfolio? What are the
myths?
Prashant: I think people pay a lot more attention to timing the stock market than security
selection. Sensex itself compounded at 14% but what % of our portfolio was in sensex or
equities ? If you get allocation right to equities, even if your pf earns lesser than someone
else, you will still be better off. Asset allocation is less talked about.

Myths - people used to say stock markets are manipulative, but it's no more relevant.
Markets are better regulated today.. Majority opinion in equities are more often wrong than
right and that's the difference between democracy and equities. Big gains in equities are
invariably from pain.
Speaker 7 *Vijay Kedia*

- If i should select a stock, it will take me 10 minutes. But if I should speak in English it will
take me 3-4 days.

- Prashant sir is the only one who has been congratulated so much despite being
unemployed.

- Like other speakers i don't have as much data. So what am I doing here? What I am doing
in the market?
I listen to all these speakers, connect the dots, find a stock, invest for long term with
whatever amount I have, and then I don't listen to them or anyone.

- I can buy whatever Vishal Ji tells me but if he tells me to sell i will not sell.

- Hence grace of God i have many stocks giving me 100x but as mutual funds say past
performance is not to be seen..
- One observation I'm going to share - there has been some structural shift in India. And
what is that? Bull markets in India are becoming longer and bear markets are becoming
shorter. Before 2003 no bull market lasted beyond 9 months and bear markets lasted 2-3
years. In 2003, first time bull markets lasted 4 years and inspite of Lehman Brothers crisis,
bear market lasted only 9 months. Covid bear market was also 9 months.

- Stock market is like an ocean. Some go there just to get their feet wet. Some go for
amusement, some go for exploration of minerals. The deeper you go the higher is your risk
and reward.

- Life is rude if you try to figure out trend of inflation, recession and crude. Nobody knows
inflation, recession, etc.

- Life is cool if you stay invested in the market like a fool.

- Life is fun is you are invested for long run

- Life is blessing if you don't compare with casino and racing

- Life favours if you don't depend on economics, chartists and neighbours.

- Life slaps when you can't avoid investing in bhangaar caps

- Life honours when you invest with mindset of co-owners

- Life is a fight when you want to become a millionaire overnight

- If you smoke you may die in 20 years but If you are trading F&O you will die next day.
Success rate in trading is only 1%.

10 rules for trading:

1. Investing and trading is very different.
Educated people fail more than uneducated in trading. A top class investor could be a flop
trader. Trading is a full time profession.

I started as a trader and realised it's a 24x7 profession.

2. Senses

Know your senses KYS is more important than kyc. Handling depression, fear, anger,
disappointment is key in trading. Run today to come tomorrow to fight. Accepting defeat is
important, ego is fatal.

3. Courage - it's a double edged sword. Courage is important but strategy is key. Know
when to be courageous.

4. Retention - retaining money is key. Inactivity is also an activity. Know when to hit and
when to defend.

5. Fundamentals - there are no fundamentals in trading. It has its own fundamentals.

Reading fluctuations is the only fundamental. Biggest failures happens when you apply
fundamentals in F&O. Investing is about reading the company, economy and trading is
reading the market / participants.

6. Partners - F&O has some element of gambling. Remember the rule - the house always
wins. Choose your trading partner wisely (brokerage etc).

7. Stop loss - no stop loss in investment but stop loss in trading is a must.
8. Quantity - is very important. Same quantity of trading is important until you master the art.
If you are successful with 1000 nifty, next trade should also be 1000 nifty not 2000 nifty.

9. Luck - don't try your luck often in trading. Luck may save you once or twice. I am a
foolish person but even if i am little successful, i had 150% luck in life. Luck when it saves
should give lesson. Next time those lessons should save you (luck won't come again)

10. Logic - logic doesn't work in trading. Like in life, logic will come later.

Bull markets creates stupid investors (incl me). Stupid investors creates bear markets. Bear
markets creates smart investors. Smart investors create bull markets. Bull markets create
stupid investors...

Only when markets crash do big investors make money.

Notes from 9th Bullet Proof Seminar by Tamilnadu Investors Association:

Closing remarks by *Shyam Sekhar*

1. Is this the right time to invest?

With Europe, China etc going the way they are, we are in a better place. + The WIP of
financialization of business in the country. So we can't predict if this is the right time, but
this is the right place to invest. We only have to see how we can scale up our investments,
and that we are not caught out of the market when the flight takes off. In that sense trying
to find right investments is better than finding the right time. We also got inputs from
Ridham and other speakers.

2. Am I doing the right thing ?

The small investor - there's always 4 things what we should focus upon. What are you
investing for ?

Some invest for a financial goal, some for leaving employment, some want to reach a
milestone. But it's very important to have a purpose, there need not be one purpose but
there needs to be an initial purpose when we begin which can change when we grow.
Some investors find a greater purpose. For some it's giving, for some it's investing in
enterprises to grow them (Akasa for RJ, Atul for Vijay Kedia). This is a secondary purpose. I
have tried my hand at private companies.

Then you have someone like RK Damani who started his own company.

But this greater purpose requires thinking. You shouldn't just embark on it. Lot of people go
into fomo and invest in cryptos.

What we think of an investor and what the investor is doing are very different things. So
whether you're investing in stocks, PE, IPO, your own biz etc - you must know your own
purpose and it shouldn't necessarily tally with your neighbour.

So purpose is most important. Second is personality - stick to businesses you understand.

Only invest in line with your own personality. Your personality will shine in your investments.
Third point is very important - very critical - the process you use to make your investment.
Have own process to identify opportunities. Failures in investing is mostly because
processes are bad. And as you grow your process must grow with you. Many people think
they can have a process once they cross a large size. No - you should have a process from
day 1, learning from it and improving the next day. Last point - everything that you want to
do, requires patience. Whether it's for your child's education, it's for retirement, or whatever
goals - it all requires diligence investment management and patience.

- Today i see a lot of people wanting to just speculate. There's a problem in India's
investment culture because options are major source of income for exchanges. Lot of
youngsters are doing speculation even if their personalities are not suited for it. Effectively
such things can leave you very bitter.