year month USgas

1 2000 1 2510.5
2 2000 2 2330.7
3 2000 3 2050.6
4 2000 4 1783.3
5 2000 5 1632.9
6 2000 6 1513.1
7 2000 7 1525.6
8 2000 8 1653.1
9 2000 9 1475
10 2000 10 1567.8
11 2000 11 1908.5
12 2000 12 2587.5
13 2001 1 2677
14 2001 2 2309.5
15 2001 3 2246.6
16 2001 4 1807.2
17 2001 5 1522.4
18 2001 6 1444.4
19 2001 7 1598.1
20 2001 8 1669.2
21 2001 9 1494.1
22 2001 10 1649.1
23 2001 11 1701
24 2001 12 2120.2
25 2002 1 2487.6
26 2002 2 2242.4
27 2002 3 2258.4
28 2002 4 1881
29 2002 5 1611.5
30 2002 6 1591.4
31 2002 7 1748.4
32 2002 8 1725.7
33 2002 9 1542.2
34 2002 10 1645.9
35 2002 11 1913.6
36 2002 12 2378.9
37 2003 1 2700.5
38 2003 2 2500.3
39 2003 3 2197.9
40 2003 4 1743.5
41 2003 5 1514.7
42 2003 6 1368.4
43 2003 7 1600.5
44 2003 8 1651.6
45 2003 9 1428.6
46 2003 10 1553.2
47 2003 11 1753.6
48 2003 12 2263.7
49 2004 1 2675.8
50 2004 2 2511.1
51 2004 3 2100.9
52 2004 4 1745.2
53 2004 5 1573
54 2004 6 1483.7
55 2004 7 1584.9
56 2004 8 1578
57 2004 9 1482.2
58 2004 10 1557.2
59 2004 11 1782.8
60 2004 12 2327.7
61 2005 1 2561.9
62 2005 2 2243
63 2005 3 2205.8
64 2005 4 1724.9
65 2005 5 1522.6
66 2005 6 1534.1
67 2005 7 1686.6
68 2005 8 1695.1
69 2005 9 1422.5
70 2005 10 1428.2
71 2005 11 1663.4
72 2005 12 2326.4
73 2006 1 2165.3
74 2006 2 2144.4
75 2006 3 2126.4
76 2006 4 1681
77 2006 5 1526.3
78 2006 6 1550.9
79 2006 7 1758.7
80 2006 8 1751.7
81 2006 9 1462.1
82 2006 10 1644.2
83 2006 11 1765.4
84 2006 12 2122.8
85 2007 1 2475.6
86 2007 2 2567
87 2007 3 2128.8
88 2007 4 1810.1
89 2007 5 1559.1
90 2007 6 1555.2
91 2007 7 1659.9
92 2007 8 1896.1
93 2007 9 1590.5
 94 2007 10 1627.8
95 2007 11 1834.5
96 2007 12 2399.2
97 2008 1 2734
98 2008 2 2503.4
99 2008 3 2278.2
100 2008 4 1823.9
101 2008 5 1576.4
102 2008 6 1604.2
103 2008 7 1708.6
104 2008 8 1682.9
105 2008 9 1460.9
106 2008 10 1635.8
107 2008 11 1868.9
108 2008 12 2399.7
109 2009 1 2729.7
110 2009 2 2332.5
111 2009 3 2170.7
112 2009 4 1741.3
113 2009 5 1504
114 2009 6 1527.8
115 2009 7 1658
116 2009 8 1736.5
117 2009 9 1575
118 2009 10 1666.5
119 2009 11 1776.2
120 2009 12 2491.9
121 2010 1 2809.8
122 2010 2 2481
123 2010 3 2142.9
124 2010 4 1691.8
125 2010 5 1617.3
126 2010 6 1649.5
127 2010 7 1825.8
128 2010 8 1878.9
129 2010 9 1637.5
130 2010 10 1664.9
131 2010 11 1973.3
132 2010 12 2714.1
133 2011 1 2888.6
134 2011 2 2452.4
135 2011 3 2230.5
136 2011 4 1825
137 2011 5 1667.4
138 2011 6 1657.3
139 2011 7 1890.5
140 2011 8 1891.8
141 2011 9 1655.6
142 2011 10 1744.5
143 2011 11 2031.9
144 2011 12 2541.9
145 2012 1 2756.2
146 2012 2 2500.7
147 2012 3 2127.8
148 2012 4 1953.1
149 2012 5 1873.8
150 2012 6 1868.4
151 2012 7 2069.8
152 2012 8 2008.8
153 2012 9 1807.2
154 2012 10 1901.1
155 2012 11 2167.8
156 2012 12 2503.9
157 2013 1 2878.8
158 2013 2 2567.2
159 2013 3 2521.1
160 2013 4 1967.5
161 2013 5 1752.5
162 2013 6 1742.9
163 2013 7 1926.3
164 2013 8 1927.4
165 2013 9 1767
166 2013 10 1866.8
167 2013 11 2316.9
168 2013 12 2920.8
169 2014 1 3204.1
170 2014 2 2741.2
171 2014 3 2557.9
172 2014 4 1961.7
173 2014 5 1810.2
174 2014 6 1745.4
175 2014 7 1881
176 2014 8 1933.1
177 2014 9 1809.3
178 2014 10 1912.8
179 2014 11 2357.5
180 2014 12 2679.2
181 2015 1 3115
182 2015 2 2925.2
183 2015 3 2591.3
184 2015 4 2007.9
185 2015 5 1858.1
186 2015 6 1899.9
187 2015 7 2067.7
188 2015 8 2052.7
189 2015 9 1901.3
190 2015 10 1987.3
191 2015 11 2249.1
192 2015 12 2588.2
193 2016 1 3091.7
194 2016 2 2652.3
195 2016 3 2356.3
196 2016 4 2083.8
197 2016 5 1965.8
198 2016 6 2000.7
199 2016 7 2186.6
200 2016 8 2208.4
201 2016 9 1947.8
202 2016 10 1925.2
203 2016 11 2159.4
204 2016 12 2866.3
205 2017 1 2914.2
206 2017 2 2340.6
207 2017 3 2523.7
208 2017 4 1932.5
209 2017 5 1892.5
210 2017 6 1910.9
211 2017 7 2142.1
212 2017 8 2094.3
213 2017 9 1920.9
214 2017 10 2032
215 2017 11 2357.7
216 2017 12 3084.5
217 2018 1 3335
218 2018 2 2705.9
219 2018 3 2792.6
220 2018 4 2346.3
221 2018 5 2050.9
222 2018 6 2058.7
223 2018 7 2344.6
224 2018 8 2307.7
225 2018 9 2151.5
226 2018 10 2279.1
227 2018 11 2709.9
228 2018 12 2993.1
229 2019 1 3399.9
230 2019 2 2999.2
231 2019 3 2899.9
232 2019 4 2201.1
233 2019 5 2121
234 2019 6 2115.2
235 2019 7 2407.5
236 2019 8 2437.2
237 2019 9 2215.6
238 2019 10 2472.3
year month Usgas_ACTF1_NAÏVE_L1 F2_SNAIVE_L12 F3_SMA_L12 F4_SES F5_HOLT
2000 1 2510.5
2000 2 2330.7 2510.5
2000 3 2050.6 2330.7
2000 4 1783.3 2050.6
2000 5 1632.9 1783.3
2000 6 1513.1 1632.9
2000 7 1525.6 1513.1
2000 8 1653.1 1525.6
2000 9 1475 1653.1
2000 10 1567.8 1475
2000 11 1908.5 1567.8
2000 12 2587.5 1908.5
2001 1 2677 2587.5 1878.216666667
2001 2 2309.5 2677 1892.091666667
2001 3 2246.6 2309.5 1890.325
2001 4 1807.2 2246.6 1906.658333333
2001 5 1522.4 1807.2 1908.65
2001 6 1444.4 1522.4 1899.441666667
2001 7 1598.1 1444.4 1893.716666667
2001 8 1669.2 1598.1 1899.758333333
2001 9 1494.1 1669.2 1901.1
2001 10 1649.1 1494.1 1902.691666667
2001 11 1701 1649.1 1909.466666667
2001 12 2120.2 1701 1892.175
2002 1 2487.6 2120.2 1853.233333333
2002 2 2242.4 2487.6 1837.45
2002 3 2258.4 2242.4 1831.858333333
2002 4 1881 2258.4 1832.841666667
2002 5 1611.5 1881 1838.991666667
2002 6 1591.4 1611.5 1846.416666667
2002 7 1748.4 1591.4 1858.666666667
2002 8 1725.7 1748.4 1871.191666667
2002 9 1542.2 1725.7 1875.9
2002 10 1645.9 1542.2 1879.908333333
2002 11 1913.6 1645.9 1879.641666667
2002 12 2378.9 1913.6 1897.358333333
2003 1 2700.5 2378.9 1918.916666667
2003 2 2500.3 2700.5 1936.658333333
2003 3 2197.9 2500.3 1958.15
2003 4 1743.5 2197.9 1953.108333333
2003 5 1514.7 1743.5 1941.65
2003 6 1368.4 1514.7 1933.583333333
2003 7 1600.5 1368.4 1915
2003 8 1651.6 1600.5 1902.675
2003 9 1428.6 1651.6 1896.5
2003 10 1553.2 1428.6 1887.033333333
2003 11 1753.6 1553.2 1879.308333333
2003 12 2263.7 1753.6 1865.975
2004 1 2675.8 2263.7 1856.375
2004 2 2511.1 2675.8 1854.316666667
2004 3 2100.9 2511.1 1855.216666667
2004 4 1745.2 2100.9 1847.133333333
2004 5 1573 1745.2 1847.275
2004 6 1483.7 1573 1852.133333333
2004 7 1584.9 1483.7 1861.741666667
2004 8 1578 1584.9 1860.441666667
2004 9 1482.2 1578 1854.308333333
2004 10 1557.2 1482.2 1858.775
2004 11 1782.8 1557.2 1859.108333333
2004 12 2327.7 1782.8 1861.541666667
2005 1 2561.9 2327.7 1866.875
2005 2 2243 2561.9 1857.383333333
2005 3 2205.8 2243 1835.041666667
2005 4 1724.9 2205.8 1843.783333333
2005 5 1522.6 1724.9 1842.091666667
2005 6 1534.1 1522.6 1837.891666667
2005 7 1686.6 1534.1 1842.091666667
2005 8 1695.1 1686.6 1850.566666667
2005 9 1422.5 1695.1 1860.325
2005 10 1428.2 1422.5 1855.35
2005 11 1663.4 1428.2 1844.6
2005 12 2326.4 1663.4 1834.65
2006 1 2165.3 2326.4 1834.541666667
2006 2 2144.4 2165.3 1801.491666667
2006 3 2126.4 2144.4 1793.275
2006 4 1681 2126.4 1786.658333333
2006 5 1526.3 1681 1783
2006 6 1550.9 1526.3 1783.308333333
2006 7 1758.7 1550.9 1784.708333333
2006 8 1751.7 1758.7 1790.716666667
2006 9 1462.1 1751.7 1795.433333333
2006 10 1644.2 1462.1 1798.733333333
2006 11 1765.4 1644.2 1816.733333333
2006 12 2122.8 1765.4 1825.233333333
2007 1 2475.6 2122.8 1808.266666667
2007 2 2567 2475.6 1834.125
2007 3 2128.8 2567 1869.341666667
2007 4 1810.1 2128.8 1869.541666667
2007 5 1559.1 1810.1 1880.3
2007 6 1555.2 1559.1 1883.033333333
2007 7 1659.9 1555.2 1883.391666667
2007 8 1896.1 1659.9 1875.158333333
2007 9 1590.5 1896.1 1887.191666667
2007 10 1627.8 1590.5 1897.891666667
2007 11 1834.5 1627.8 1896.525
2007 12 2399.2 1834.5 1902.283333333
2008 1 2734 2399.2 1925.316666667
2008 2 2503.4 2734 1946.85
2008 3 2278.2 2503.4 1941.55
2008 4 1823.9 2278.2 1954
2008 5 1576.4 1823.9 1955.15
2008 6 1604.2 1576.4 1956.591666667
2008 7 1708.6 1604.2 1960.675
2008 8 1682.9 1708.6 1964.733333333
2008 9 1460.9 1682.9 1946.966666667
2008 10 1635.8 1460.9 1936.166666667
2008 11 1868.9 1635.8 1936.833333333
2008 12 2399.7 1868.9 1939.7
2009 1 2729.7 2399.7 1939.741666667
2009 2 2332.5 2729.7 1939.383333333
2009 3 2170.7 2332.5 1925.141666667
2009 4 1741.3 2170.7 1916.183333333
2009 5 1504 1741.3 1909.3
2009 6 1527.8 1504 1903.266666667
2009 7 1658 1527.8 1896.9
2009 8 1736.5 1658 1892.683333333
2009 9 1575 1736.5 1897.15
2009 10 1666.5 1575 1906.658333333
2009 11 1776.2 1666.5 1909.216666667
2009 12 2491.9 1776.2 1901.491666667
2010 1 2809.8 2491.9 1909.175
2010 2 2481 2809.8 1915.85
2010 3 2142.9 2481 1928.225
2010 4 1691.8 2142.9 1925.908333333
2010 5 1617.3 1691.8 1921.783333333
2010 6 1649.5 1617.3 1931.225
2010 7 1825.8 1649.5 1941.366666667
2010 8 1878.9 1825.8 1955.35
2010 9 1637.5 1878.9 1967.216666667
2010 10 1664.9 1637.5 1972.425
2010 11 1973.3 1664.9 1972.291666667
2010 12 2714.1 1973.3 1988.716666667
2011 1 2888.6 2714.1 2007.233333333
2011 2 2452.4 2888.6 2013.8
2011 3 2230.5 2452.4 2011.416666667
2011 4 1825 2230.5 2018.716666667
2011 5 1667.4 1825 2029.816666667
2011 6 1657.3 1667.4 2033.991666667
2011 7 1890.5 1657.3 2034.641666667
2011 8 1891.8 1890.5 2040.033333333
2011 9 1655.6 1891.8 2041.108333333
2011 10 1744.5 1655.6 2042.616666667
2011 11 2031.9 1744.5 2049.25
2011 12 2541.9 2031.9 2054.133333333
2012 1 2756.2 2541.9 2039.783333333
2012 2 2500.7 2756.2 2028.75
2012 3 2127.8 2500.7 2032.775
2012 4 1953.1 2127.8 2024.216666667
2012 5 1873.8 1953.1 2034.891666667
2012 6 1868.4 1873.8 2052.091666667
2012 7 2069.8 1868.4 2069.683333333
2012 8 2008.8 2069.8 2084.625
2012 9 1807.2 2008.8 2094.375
2012 10 1901.1 1807.2 2107.008333333
2012 11 2167.8 1901.1 2120.058333333
2012 12 2503.9 2167.8 2131.383333333
2013 1 2878.8 2503.9 2128.216666667
2013 2 2567.2 2878.8 2138.433333333
2013 3 2521.1 2567.2 2143.975
2013 4 1967.5 2521.1 2176.75
2013 5 1752.5 1967.5 2177.95
2013 6 1742.9 1752.5 2167.841666667
2013 7 1926.3 1742.9 2157.383333333
2013 8 1927.4 1926.3 2145.425
2013 9 1767 1927.4 2138.641666667
2013 10 1866.8 1767 2135.291666667
2013 11 2316.9 1866.8 2132.433333333
2013 12 2920.8 2316.9 2144.858333333
2014 1 3204.1 2920.8 2179.6
2014 2 2741.2 3204.1 2206.708333333
2014 3 2557.9 2741.2 2221.208333333
2014 4 1961.7 2557.9 2224.275
2014 5 1810.2 1961.7 2223.791666667
2014 6 1745.4 1810.2 2228.6
2014 7 1881 1745.4 2228.808333333
2014 8 1933.1 1881 2225.033333333
2014 9 1809.3 1933.1 2225.508333333
2014 10 1912.8 1809.3 2229.033333333
2014 11 2357.5 1912.8 2232.866666667
2014 12 2679.2 2357.5 2236.25
2015 1 3115 2679.2 2216.116666667
2015 2 2925.2 3115 2208.691666667
2015 3 2591.3 2925.2 2224.025
2015 4 2007.9 2591.3 2226.808333333
2015 5 1858.1 2007.9 2230.658333333
2015 6 1899.9 1858.1 2234.65
2015 7 2067.7 1899.9 2247.525
2015 8 2052.7 2067.7 2263.083333333
2015 9 1901.3 2052.7 2273.05
2015 10 1987.3 1901.3 2280.716666667
2015 11 2249.1 1987.3 2286.925
2015 12 2588.2 2249.1 2277.891666667
2016 1 3091.7 2588.2 2270.308333333
2016 2 2652.3 3091.7 2268.366666667
2016 3 2356.3 2652.3 2245.625
2016 4 2083.8 2356.3 2226.041666667
2016 5 1965.8 2083.8 2232.366666667
2016 6 2000.7 1965.8 2241.341666667
2016 7 2186.6 2000.7 2249.741666667
2016 8 2208.4 2186.6 2259.65
2016 9 1947.8 2208.4 2272.625
2016 10 1925.2 1947.8 2276.5
2016 11 2159.4 1925.2 2271.325
2016 12 2866.3 2159.4 2263.85
2017 1 2914.2 2866.3 2287.025
2017 2 2340.6 2914.2 2272.233333333
2017 3 2523.7 2340.6 2246.258333333
2017 4 1932.5 2523.7 2260.208333333
2017 5 1892.5 1932.5 2247.6
2017 6 1910.9 1892.5 2241.491666667
2017 7 2142.1 1910.9 2234.008333333
2017 8 2094.3 2142.1 2230.3
2017 9 1920.9 2094.3 2220.791666667
2017 10 2032 1920.9 2218.55
2017 11 2357.7 2032 2227.45
2017 12 3084.5 2357.7 2243.975
2018 1 3335 3084.5 2262.158333333
2018 2 2705.9 3335 2297.225
2018 3 2792.6 2705.9 2327.666666667
2018 4 2346.3 2792.6 2350.075
2018 5 2050.9 2346.3 2384.558333333
2018 6 2058.7 2050.9 2397.758333333
2018 7 2344.6 2058.7 2410.075
2018 8 2307.7 2344.6 2426.95
2018 9 2151.5 2307.7 2444.733333333
2018 10 2279.1 2151.5 2463.95
F6_HOLTWINTER
year month Usgas_ACTUAL F1_NAÏVE_L1 F2_SNAIVEF3_SMA_l12
2018 11 2709.9 2357.7 2227.45
2018 12 2993.1 2709.9 2243.975
2019 1 3399.9 2993.1 2262.158
2019 2 2999.2 3399.9 2297.225
2019 3 2899.9 2999.2 2327.667
2019 4 2201.1 2899.9 2350.075
2019 5 2121 2201.1 2384.558
2019 6 2115.2 2121 2397.758
2019 7 2407.5 2115.2 2410.075
2019 8 2437.2 2407.5 2426.95
2019 9 2215.6 2437.2 2444.733
2019 10 2472.3 2215.6 2463.95

FORECAST ACCURACY METRICS

FULL FORM METRICS NAÏVE_L1 SEASONAL SMA SES
Mean Error ME 0 0 2580.992 -11.30995
Mean Absolute Error MAE 0 0 2580.992 154.625
Mean Percentage Error MPE 0 0 100 94.1172
Mean Absolute Percenage Error MAPE 0 0 100 0.462645
Mean Squared Error MSE 0 0 6820071 38002.32
Root Mean Squared Error RMSE 0 0 2611.527 194.9418
THEILS U
 F1_NAIVE_L1 F2_SNAIV
FORECAST A-F (A-F)/A |A-F| |A-F|/A (A-F)^2 A-F
352.2 0.129968
283.2 0.094618
406.8 0.119651
-400.7 -0.133602
-99.3 -0.034243
-698.8 -0.317478
-80.1 -0.037765
-5.8 -0.002742
292.3 0.121412
29.7 0.012186
-221.6 -0.100018
256.7 0.10383
AVERAGE

HOLT HOLT WINTARIMA F3_SMA_L12

FORECAST A-F (A-F)/A |A-F| |A-F|/A (A-F)^2
2709.9 1 2709.9 1 7343558
2993.1 1 2993.1 1 8958648
3399.9 1 3399.9 1 11559320
2999.2 1 2999.2 1 8995201
2899.9 1 2899.9 1 8409420
2201.1 1 2201.1 1 4844841
2121 1 2121 1 4498641
2115.2 1 2115.2 1 4474071
2407.5 1 2407.5 1 5796056
2437.2 1 2437.2 1 5939944
2215.6 1 2215.6 1 4908883
2472.3 1 2472.3 1 6112267
AVERAGE 2580.992 1 2580.992 1 6820071
 F2_SNAIVE-L12
(A-F)/A |A-F| |A-F|/A (A-F)^2
TEST DATA year month USgas Ft+1 (A-F)^2 MINIMISE RMSE OF TRAIN
1 2000 1 2510.5 2510.5
2 2000 2 2330.7 2510.5 MSE
3 2000 3 2050.6 2055.199
4 2000 4 1783.3
5 2000 5 1632.9 s.t.
6 2000 6 1513.1
7 2000 7 1525.6
8 2000 8 1653.1
9 2000 9 1475
10 2000 10 1567.8
11 2000 11 1908.5
12 2000 12 2587.5
13 2001 1 2677
14 2001 2 2309.5
15 2001 3 2246.6
16 2001 4 1807.2
17 2001 5 1522.4
18 2001 6 1444.4
19 2001 7 1598.1
20 2001 8 1669.2
21 2001 9 1494.1
22 2001 10 1649.1
23 2001 11 1701
24 2001 12 2120.2
25 2002 1 2487.6
26 2002 2 2242.4
27 2002 3 2258.4
28 2002 4 1881
29 2002 5 1611.5
30 2002 6 1591.4
31 2002 7 1748.4
32 2002 8 1725.7
33 2002 9 1542.2
34 2002 10 1645.9
35 2002 11 1913.6
36 2002 12 2378.9
37 2003 1 2700.5
38 2003 2 2500.3
39 2003 3 2197.9
40 2003 4 1743.5
41 2003 5 1514.7
42 2003 6 1368.4
43 2003 7 1600.5
44 2003 8 1651.6
45 2003 9 1428.6
46 2003 10 1553.2
47 2003 11 1753.6
48 2003 12 2263.7
49 2004 1 2675.8
50 2004 2 2511.1
51 2004 3 2100.9
52 2004 4 1745.2
53 2004 5 1573
54 2004 6 1483.7
55 2004 7 1584.9
56 2004 8 1578
57 2004 9 1482.2
58 2004 10 1557.2
59 2004 11 1782.8
60 2004 12 2327.7
61 2005 1 2561.9
62 2005 2 2243
63 2005 3 2205.8
64 2005 4 1724.9
65 2005 5 1522.6
66 2005 6 1534.1
67 2005 7 1686.6
68 2005 8 1695.1
69 2005 9 1422.5
70 2005 10 1428.2
71 2005 11 1663.4
72 2005 12 2326.4
73 2006 1 2165.3
74 2006 2 2144.4
75 2006 3 2126.4
76 2006 4 1681
77 2006 5 1526.3
78 2006 6 1550.9
79 2006 7 1758.7
80 2006 8 1751.7
81 2006 9 1462.1
82 2006 10 1644.2
83 2006 11 1765.4
84 2006 12 2122.8
85 2007 1 2475.6
86 2007 2 2567
87 2007 3 2128.8
88 2007 4 1810.1
89 2007 5 1559.1
90 2007 6 1555.2
91 2007 7 1659.9
92 2007 8 1896.1
93 2007 9 1590.5
 94 2007 10 1627.8
95 2007 11 1834.5
96 2007 12 2399.2
97 2008 1 2734
98 2008 2 2503.4
99 2008 3 2278.2
100 2008 4 1823.9
101 2008 5 1576.4
102 2008 6 1604.2
103 2008 7 1708.6
104 2008 8 1682.9
105 2008 9 1460.9
106 2008 10 1635.8
107 2008 11 1868.9
108 2008 12 2399.7
109 2009 1 2729.7
110 2009 2 2332.5
111 2009 3 2170.7
112 2009 4 1741.3
113 2009 5 1504
114 2009 6 1527.8
115 2009 7 1658
116 2009 8 1736.5
117 2009 9 1575
118 2009 10 1666.5
119 2009 11 1776.2
120 2009 12 2491.9
121 2010 1 2809.8
122 2010 2 2481
123 2010 3 2142.9
124 2010 4 1691.8
125 2010 5 1617.3
126 2010 6 1649.5
127 2010 7 1825.8
128 2010 8 1878.9
129 2010 9 1637.5
130 2010 10 1664.9
131 2010 11 1973.3
132 2010 12 2714.1
133 2011 1 2888.6
134 2011 2 2452.4
135 2011 3 2230.5
136 2011 4 1825
137 2011 5 1667.4
138 2011 6 1657.3
139 2011 7 1890.5
140 2011 8 1891.8
141 2011 9 1655.6
142 2011 10 1744.5
143 2011 11 2031.9
144 2011 12 2541.9
145 2012 1 2756.2
146 2012 2 2500.7
147 2012 3 2127.8
148 2012 4 1953.1
149 2012 5 1873.8
150 2012 6 1868.4
151 2012 7 2069.8
152 2012 8 2008.8
153 2012 9 1807.2
154 2012 10 1901.1
155 2012 11 2167.8
156 2012 12 2503.9
157 2013 1 2878.8
158 2013 2 2567.2
159 2013 3 2521.1
160 2013 4 1967.5
161 2013 5 1752.5
162 2013 6 1742.9
163 2013 7 1926.3
164 2013 8 1927.4
165 2013 9 1767
166 2013 10 1866.8
167 2013 11 2316.9
168 2013 12 2920.8
169 2014 1 3204.1
170 2014 2 2741.2
171 2014 3 2557.9
172 2014 4 1961.7
173 2014 5 1810.2
174 2014 6 1745.4
175 2014 7 1881
176 2014 8 1933.1
177 2014 9 1809.3
178 2014 10 1912.8
179 2014 11 2357.5
180 2014 12 2679.2
181 2015 1 3115
182 2015 2 2925.2
183 2015 3 2591.3
184 2015 4 2007.9
185 2015 5 1858.1
186 2015 6 1899.9
187 2015 7 2067.7
188 2015 8 2052.7
189 2015 9 1901.3
190 2015 10 1987.3
191 2015 11 2249.1
192 2015 12 2588.2
193 2016 1 3091.7
194 2016 2 2652.3
195 2016 3 2356.3
196 2016 4 2083.8
197 2016 5 1965.8
198 2016 6 2000.7
199 2016 7 2186.6
200 2016 8 2208.4
201 2016 9 1947.8
202 2016 10 1925.2
203 2016 11 2159.4
204 2016 12 2866.3
205 2017 1 2914.2
206 2017 2 2340.6
207 2017 3 2523.7
208 2017 4 1932.5
209 2017 5 1892.5
210 2017 6 1910.9
211 2017 7 2142.1
212 2017 8 2094.3
213 2017 9 1920.9
214 2017 10 2032
215 2017 11 2357.7
216 2017 12 3084.5
217 2018 1 3335
218 2018 2 2705.9
219 2018 3 2792.6
220 2018 4 2346.3
221 2018 5 2050.9
222 2018 6 2058.7
223 2018 7 2344.6
224 2018 8 2307.7
225 2018 9 2151.5
226 2018 10 2279.1
11 2709.9
12 2993.1
1 3399.9
2 2999.2
3 2899.9
4 2201.1
5 2121
6 2115.2
 7 2407.5
8 2437.2
9 2215.6
10 2472.3
MINIMISE RMSE OF TRAINING DATASET TO FIND ALPHA

#DIV/0!

ALPHA 0.99

0 1
 F4_SES_OPTMSE FORECAST ACCURACY METRICS
FORECAST A-F (A-F)/A |A-F| |A-F|/A (A-F)^2 SES
2709.9 1 2709.9 1 7343558 Mean ErrorME 2580.992
2993.1 1 2993.1 1 8958648 Mean AbsolMAE 2580.992
3399.9 1 3399.9 1 11559320 Mean PerceMPE 100
2999.2 1 2999.2 1 8995201 Mean AbsolMAPE 100
2899.9 1 2899.9 1 8409420 Mean SquarMSE 6820071
2201.1 1 2201.1 1 4844841 Root MeanRMSE 2611.527
2121 1 2121 1 4498641 THEILS U
2115.2 1 2115.2 1 4474071
2407.5 1 2407.5 1 5796056
 2437.2 1 2437.2 1 5939944
2215.6 1 2215.6 1 4908883
2472.3 1 2472.3 1 6112267
AVERAGE 2580.992 1 2580.992 1 6820071
T ACCURACY METRICS
TEST DATA year month USgas Deseason A_detrend Ft+1 (A-F)^2
1 2000 1 2510.5
2 2000 2 2330.7
3 2000 3 2050.6
4 2000 4 1783.3
5 2000 5 1632.9
6 2000 6 1513.1
7 2000 7 1525.6
8 2000 8 1653.1
9 2000 9 1475
10 2000 10 1567.8
11 2000 11 1908.5
12 2000 12 2587.5
13 2001 1 2677
14 2001 2 2309.5
15 2001 3 2246.6
16 2001 4 1807.2
17 2001 5 1522.4
18 2001 6 1444.4
19 2001 7 1598.1
20 2001 8 1669.2
21 2001 9 1494.1
22 2001 10 1649.1
23 2001 11 1701
24 2001 12 2120.2
25 2002 1 2487.6
26 2002 2 2242.4
27 2002 3 2258.4
28 2002 4 1881
29 2002 5 1611.5
30 2002 6 1591.4
31 2002 7 1748.4
32 2002 8 1725.7
33 2002 9 1542.2
34 2002 10 1645.9
35 2002 11 1913.6
36 2002 12 2378.9
37 2003 1 2700.5
38 2003 2 2500.3
39 2003 3 2197.9
40 2003 4 1743.5
41 2003 5 1514.7
42 2003 6 1368.4
43 2003 7 1600.5
44 2003 8 1651.6
45 2003 9 1428.6
46 2003 10 1553.2
47 2003 11 1753.6
48 2003 12 2263.7
49 2004 1 2675.8
50 2004 2 2511.1
51 2004 3 2100.9
52 2004 4 1745.2
53 2004 5 1573
54 2004 6 1483.7
55 2004 7 1584.9
56 2004 8 1578
57 2004 9 1482.2
58 2004 10 1557.2
59 2004 11 1782.8
60 2004 12 2327.7
61 2005 1 2561.9
62 2005 2 2243
63 2005 3 2205.8
64 2005 4 1724.9
65 2005 5 1522.6
66 2005 6 1534.1
67 2005 7 1686.6
68 2005 8 1695.1
69 2005 9 1422.5
70 2005 10 1428.2
71 2005 11 1663.4
72 2005 12 2326.4
73 2006 1 2165.3
74 2006 2 2144.4
75 2006 3 2126.4
76 2006 4 1681
77 2006 5 1526.3
78 2006 6 1550.9
79 2006 7 1758.7
80 2006 8 1751.7
81 2006 9 1462.1
82 2006 10 1644.2
83 2006 11 1765.4
84 2006 12 2122.8
85 2007 1 2475.6
86 2007 2 2567
87 2007 3 2128.8
88 2007 4 1810.1
89 2007 5 1559.1
90 2007 6 1555.2
91 2007 7 1659.9
92 2007 8 1896.1
93 2007 9 1590.5
 94 2007 10 1627.8
95 2007 11 1834.5
96 2007 12 2399.2
97 2008 1 2734
98 2008 2 2503.4
99 2008 3 2278.2
100 2008 4 1823.9
101 2008 5 1576.4
102 2008 6 1604.2
103 2008 7 1708.6
104 2008 8 1682.9
105 2008 9 1460.9
106 2008 10 1635.8
107 2008 11 1868.9
108 2008 12 2399.7
109 2009 1 2729.7
110 2009 2 2332.5
111 2009 3 2170.7
112 2009 4 1741.3
113 2009 5 1504
114 2009 6 1527.8
115 2009 7 1658
116 2009 8 1736.5
117 2009 9 1575
118 2009 10 1666.5
119 2009 11 1776.2
120 2009 12 2491.9
121 2010 1 2809.8
122 2010 2 2481
123 2010 3 2142.9
124 2010 4 1691.8
125 2010 5 1617.3
126 2010 6 1649.5
127 2010 7 1825.8
128 2010 8 1878.9
129 2010 9 1637.5
130 2010 10 1664.9
131 2010 11 1973.3
132 2010 12 2714.1
133 2011 1 2888.6
134 2011 2 2452.4
135 2011 3 2230.5
136 2011 4 1825
137 2011 5 1667.4
138 2011 6 1657.3
139 2011 7 1890.5
140 2011 8 1891.8
141 2011 9 1655.6
142 2011 10 1744.5
143 2011 11 2031.9
144 2011 12 2541.9
145 2012 1 2756.2
146 2012 2 2500.7
147 2012 3 2127.8
148 2012 4 1953.1
149 2012 5 1873.8
150 2012 6 1868.4
151 2012 7 2069.8
152 2012 8 2008.8
153 2012 9 1807.2
154 2012 10 1901.1
155 2012 11 2167.8
156 2012 12 2503.9
157 2013 1 2878.8
158 2013 2 2567.2
159 2013 3 2521.1
160 2013 4 1967.5
161 2013 5 1752.5
162 2013 6 1742.9
163 2013 7 1926.3
164 2013 8 1927.4
165 2013 9 1767
166 2013 10 1866.8
167 2013 11 2316.9
168 2013 12 2920.8
169 2014 1 3204.1
170 2014 2 2741.2
171 2014 3 2557.9
172 2014 4 1961.7
173 2014 5 1810.2
174 2014 6 1745.4
175 2014 7 1881
176 2014 8 1933.1
177 2014 9 1809.3
178 2014 10 1912.8
179 2014 11 2357.5
180 2014 12 2679.2
181 2015 1 3115
182 2015 2 2925.2
183 2015 3 2591.3
184 2015 4 2007.9
185 2015 5 1858.1
186 2015 6 1899.9
187 2015 7 2067.7
188 2015 8 2052.7
189 2015 9 1901.3
190 2015 10 1987.3
191 2015 11 2249.1
192 2015 12 2588.2
193 2016 1 3091.7
194 2016 2 2652.3
195 2016 3 2356.3
196 2016 4 2083.8
197 2016 5 1965.8
198 2016 6 2000.7
199 2016 7 2186.6
200 2016 8 2208.4
201 2016 9 1947.8
202 2016 10 1925.2
203 2016 11 2159.4
204 2016 12 2866.3
205 2017 1 2914.2
206 2017 2 2340.6
207 2017 3 2523.7
208 2017 4 1932.5
209 2017 5 1892.5
210 2017 6 1910.9
211 2017 7 2142.1
212 2017 8 2094.3
213 2017 9 1920.9
214 2017 10 2032
215 2017 11 2357.7
216 2017 12 3084.5
217 2018 1 3335
218 2018 2 2705.9
219 2018 3 2792.6
220 2018 4 2346.3
221 2018 5 2050.9
222 2018 6 2058.7
223 2018 7 2344.6
224 2018 8 2307.7
225 2018 9 2151.5
226 2018 10 2279.1
11 2709.9
12 2993.1
1 3399.9
2 2999.2
3 2899.9
4 2201.1
5 2121
6 2115.2
 7 2407.5
8 2437.2
9 2215.6
10 2472.3
MINIMISE RMSE OF TRAINING DATASET TO FIND ALPHA

MSE #DIV/0!

ALPHA
s.t.
0 1
 F3_SMA_L12
FORECAST A-F (A-F)/A |A-F| |A-F|/A (A-F)^2
0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 Mean Error
0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 Mean Absol
0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 Mean Perce
0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 Mean Absol
0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 Mean Squar
0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 Root Mean
0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0
0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0
0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0
 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0
0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0
0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0
AVERAGE 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0
FORECAST ACCURACY METRICS
SES
ME 0
MAE 0
MPE #DIV/0!
MAPE #DIV/0!
MSE 0
RMSE 0
THEILS U
TEST DATA year month USgas Lt Tt Ft+1=Lt + Ft (A-F)^2
1 2000 1 2510.5
2 2000 2 2330.7
3 2000 3 2050.6
4 2000 4 1783.3
5 2000 5 1632.9
6 2000 6 1513.1
7 2000 7 1525.6
8 2000 8 1653.1
9 2000 9 1475
10 2000 10 1567.8
11 2000 11 1908.5
12 2000 12 2587.5
13 2001 1 2677
14 2001 2 2309.5
15 2001 3 2246.6
16 2001 4 1807.2
17 2001 5 1522.4
18 2001 6 1444.4
19 2001 7 1598.1
20 2001 8 1669.2
21 2001 9 1494.1
22 2001 10 1649.1
23 2001 11 1701
24 2001 12 2120.2
25 2002 1 2487.6
26 2002 2 2242.4
27 2002 3 2258.4
28 2002 4 1881
29 2002 5 1611.5
30 2002 6 1591.4
31 2002 7 1748.4
32 2002 8 1725.7
33 2002 9 1542.2
34 2002 10 1645.9
35 2002 11 1913.6
36 2002 12 2378.9
37 2003 1 2700.5
38 2003 2 2500.3
39 2003 3 2197.9
40 2003 4 1743.5
41 2003 5 1514.7
42 2003 6 1368.4
43 2003 7 1600.5
44 2003 8 1651.6
45 2003 9 1428.6
46 2003 10 1553.2
47 2003 11 1753.6
48 2003 12 2263.7
49 2004 1 2675.8
50 2004 2 2511.1
51 2004 3 2100.9
52 2004 4 1745.2
53 2004 5 1573
54 2004 6 1483.7
55 2004 7 1584.9
56 2004 8 1578
57 2004 9 1482.2
58 2004 10 1557.2
59 2004 11 1782.8
60 2004 12 2327.7
61 2005 1 2561.9
62 2005 2 2243
63 2005 3 2205.8
64 2005 4 1724.9
65 2005 5 1522.6
66 2005 6 1534.1
67 2005 7 1686.6
68 2005 8 1695.1
69 2005 9 1422.5
70 2005 10 1428.2
71 2005 11 1663.4
72 2005 12 2326.4
73 2006 1 2165.3
74 2006 2 2144.4
75 2006 3 2126.4
76 2006 4 1681
77 2006 5 1526.3
78 2006 6 1550.9
79 2006 7 1758.7
80 2006 8 1751.7
81 2006 9 1462.1
82 2006 10 1644.2
83 2006 11 1765.4
84 2006 12 2122.8
85 2007 1 2475.6
86 2007 2 2567
87 2007 3 2128.8
88 2007 4 1810.1
89 2007 5 1559.1
90 2007 6 1555.2
91 2007 7 1659.9
92 2007 8 1896.1
93 2007 9 1590.5
 94 2007 10 1627.8
95 2007 11 1834.5
96 2007 12 2399.2
97 2008 1 2734
98 2008 2 2503.4
99 2008 3 2278.2
100 2008 4 1823.9
101 2008 5 1576.4
102 2008 6 1604.2
103 2008 7 1708.6
104 2008 8 1682.9
105 2008 9 1460.9
106 2008 10 1635.8
107 2008 11 1868.9
108 2008 12 2399.7
109 2009 1 2729.7
110 2009 2 2332.5
111 2009 3 2170.7
112 2009 4 1741.3
113 2009 5 1504
114 2009 6 1527.8
115 2009 7 1658
116 2009 8 1736.5
117 2009 9 1575
118 2009 10 1666.5
119 2009 11 1776.2
120 2009 12 2491.9
121 2010 1 2809.8
122 2010 2 2481
123 2010 3 2142.9
124 2010 4 1691.8
125 2010 5 1617.3
126 2010 6 1649.5
127 2010 7 1825.8
128 2010 8 1878.9
129 2010 9 1637.5
130 2010 10 1664.9
131 2010 11 1973.3
132 2010 12 2714.1
133 2011 1 2888.6
134 2011 2 2452.4
135 2011 3 2230.5
136 2011 4 1825
137 2011 5 1667.4
138 2011 6 1657.3
139 2011 7 1890.5
140 2011 8 1891.8
141 2011 9 1655.6
142 2011 10 1744.5
143 2011 11 2031.9
144 2011 12 2541.9
145 2012 1 2756.2
146 2012 2 2500.7
147 2012 3 2127.8
148 2012 4 1953.1
149 2012 5 1873.8
150 2012 6 1868.4
151 2012 7 2069.8
152 2012 8 2008.8
153 2012 9 1807.2
154 2012 10 1901.1
155 2012 11 2167.8
156 2012 12 2503.9
157 2013 1 2878.8
158 2013 2 2567.2
159 2013 3 2521.1
160 2013 4 1967.5
161 2013 5 1752.5
162 2013 6 1742.9
163 2013 7 1926.3
164 2013 8 1927.4
165 2013 9 1767
166 2013 10 1866.8
167 2013 11 2316.9
168 2013 12 2920.8
169 2014 1 3204.1
170 2014 2 2741.2
171 2014 3 2557.9
172 2014 4 1961.7
173 2014 5 1810.2
174 2014 6 1745.4
175 2014 7 1881
176 2014 8 1933.1
177 2014 9 1809.3
178 2014 10 1912.8
179 2014 11 2357.5
180 2014 12 2679.2
181 2015 1 3115
182 2015 2 2925.2
183 2015 3 2591.3
184 2015 4 2007.9
185 2015 5 1858.1
186 2015 6 1899.9
187 2015 7 2067.7
188 2015 8 2052.7
189 2015 9 1901.3
190 2015 10 1987.3
191 2015 11 2249.1
192 2015 12 2588.2
193 2016 1 3091.7
194 2016 2 2652.3
195 2016 3 2356.3
196 2016 4 2083.8
197 2016 5 1965.8
198 2016 6 2000.7
199 2016 7 2186.6
200 2016 8 2208.4
201 2016 9 1947.8
202 2016 10 1925.2
203 2016 11 2159.4
204 2016 12 2866.3
205 2017 1 2914.2
206 2017 2 2340.6
207 2017 3 2523.7
208 2017 4 1932.5
209 2017 5 1892.5
210 2017 6 1910.9
211 2017 7 2142.1
212 2017 8 2094.3
213 2017 9 1920.9
214 2017 10 2032
215 2017 11 2357.7
216 2017 12 3084.5
217 2018 1 3335
218 2018 2 2705.9
219 2018 3 2792.6
220 2018 4 2346.3
221 2018 5 2050.9
222 2018 6 2058.7
223 2018 7 2344.6
224 2018 8 2307.7
225 2018 9 2151.5
226 2018 10 2279.1
11 2709.9
12 2993.1
1 3399.9
2 2999.2
3 2899.9
4 2201.1
5 2121
6 2115.2
 7 2407.5
8 2437.2
9 2215.6
10 2472.3
MINIMISE MSE OF TRAINING DATASET TO FIND ALPHA

MSE

ALPHA
s.t. BETA
0 1

Initial Values

Level L1 =Y1
Trend Yt-Yt-1
 F4_SES_OPTMSE
FORECAST A-F (A-F)/A |A-F| |A-F|/A (A-F)^2
2709.9 1 2709.9 1 7343558 Mean Error
2993.1 1 2993.1 1 8958648 Mean Absol
3399.9 1 3399.9 1 11559320 Mean Perce
2999.2 1 2999.2 1 8995201 Mean Absol
2899.9 1 2899.9 1 8409420 Mean Squar
2201.1 1 2201.1 1 4844841 Root Mean
2121 1 2121 1 4498641
2115.2 1 2115.2 1 4474071
2407.5 1 2407.5 1 5796056
 2437.2 1 2437.2 1 5939944
2215.6 1 2215.6 1 4908883
2472.3 1 2472.3 1 6112267
AVERAGE 2580.992 1 2580.992 1 6820071
FORECAST ACCURACY METRICS
SES
ME 2580.992
MAE 2580.992
MPE 100
MAPE 100
MSE 6820071
RMSE 2611.527
THEILS U
TEST DATA year month USgas Lt Tt St Ft+1=(Lt + Tt)*St+1-c(A-F)^2
1 2000 1 2510.5
2 2000 2 2330.7
3 2000 3 2050.6
4 2000 4 1783.3
5 2000 5 1632.9
6 2000 6 1513.1
7 2000 7 1525.6
8 2000 8 1653.1
9 2000 9 1475
10 2000 10 1567.8
11 2000 11 1908.5
12 2000 12 2587.5
13 2001 1 2677
14 2001 2 2309.5
15 2001 3 2246.6
16 2001 4 1807.2
17 2001 5 1522.4
18 2001 6 1444.4
19 2001 7 1598.1
20 2001 8 1669.2
21 2001 9 1494.1
22 2001 10 1649.1
23 2001 11 1701
24 2001 12 2120.2
25 2002 1 2487.6
26 2002 2 2242.4
27 2002 3 2258.4
28 2002 4 1881
29 2002 5 1611.5
30 2002 6 1591.4
31 2002 7 1748.4
32 2002 8 1725.7
33 2002 9 1542.2
34 2002 10 1645.9
35 2002 11 1913.6
36 2002 12 2378.9
37 2003 1 2700.5
38 2003 2 2500.3
39 2003 3 2197.9
40 2003 4 1743.5
41 2003 5 1514.7
42 2003 6 1368.4
43 2003 7 1600.5
44 2003 8 1651.6
45 2003 9 1428.6
46 2003 10 1553.2
47 2003 11 1753.6
48 2003 12 2263.7
49 2004 1 2675.8
50 2004 2 2511.1
51 2004 3 2100.9
52 2004 4 1745.2
53 2004 5 1573
54 2004 6 1483.7
55 2004 7 1584.9
56 2004 8 1578
57 2004 9 1482.2
58 2004 10 1557.2
59 2004 11 1782.8
60 2004 12 2327.7
61 2005 1 2561.9
62 2005 2 2243
63 2005 3 2205.8
64 2005 4 1724.9
65 2005 5 1522.6
66 2005 6 1534.1
67 2005 7 1686.6
68 2005 8 1695.1
69 2005 9 1422.5
70 2005 10 1428.2
71 2005 11 1663.4
72 2005 12 2326.4
73 2006 1 2165.3
74 2006 2 2144.4
75 2006 3 2126.4
76 2006 4 1681
77 2006 5 1526.3
78 2006 6 1550.9
79 2006 7 1758.7
80 2006 8 1751.7
81 2006 9 1462.1
82 2006 10 1644.2
83 2006 11 1765.4
84 2006 12 2122.8
85 2007 1 2475.6
86 2007 2 2567
87 2007 3 2128.8
88 2007 4 1810.1
89 2007 5 1559.1
90 2007 6 1555.2
91 2007 7 1659.9
92 2007 8 1896.1
93 2007 9 1590.5
 94 2007 10 1627.8
95 2007 11 1834.5
96 2007 12 2399.2
97 2008 1 2734
98 2008 2 2503.4
99 2008 3 2278.2
100 2008 4 1823.9
101 2008 5 1576.4
102 2008 6 1604.2
103 2008 7 1708.6
104 2008 8 1682.9
105 2008 9 1460.9
106 2008 10 1635.8
107 2008 11 1868.9
108 2008 12 2399.7
109 2009 1 2729.7
110 2009 2 2332.5
111 2009 3 2170.7
112 2009 4 1741.3
113 2009 5 1504
114 2009 6 1527.8
115 2009 7 1658
116 2009 8 1736.5
117 2009 9 1575
118 2009 10 1666.5
119 2009 11 1776.2
120 2009 12 2491.9
121 2010 1 2809.8
122 2010 2 2481
123 2010 3 2142.9
124 2010 4 1691.8
125 2010 5 1617.3
126 2010 6 1649.5
127 2010 7 1825.8
128 2010 8 1878.9
129 2010 9 1637.5
130 2010 10 1664.9
131 2010 11 1973.3
132 2010 12 2714.1
133 2011 1 2888.6
134 2011 2 2452.4
135 2011 3 2230.5
136 2011 4 1825
137 2011 5 1667.4
138 2011 6 1657.3
139 2011 7 1890.5
140 2011 8 1891.8
141 2011 9 1655.6
142 2011 10 1744.5
143 2011 11 2031.9
144 2011 12 2541.9
145 2012 1 2756.2
146 2012 2 2500.7
147 2012 3 2127.8
148 2012 4 1953.1
149 2012 5 1873.8
150 2012 6 1868.4
151 2012 7 2069.8
152 2012 8 2008.8
153 2012 9 1807.2
154 2012 10 1901.1
155 2012 11 2167.8
156 2012 12 2503.9
157 2013 1 2878.8
158 2013 2 2567.2
159 2013 3 2521.1
160 2013 4 1967.5
161 2013 5 1752.5
162 2013 6 1742.9
163 2013 7 1926.3
164 2013 8 1927.4
165 2013 9 1767
166 2013 10 1866.8
167 2013 11 2316.9
168 2013 12 2920.8
169 2014 1 3204.1
170 2014 2 2741.2
171 2014 3 2557.9
172 2014 4 1961.7
173 2014 5 1810.2
174 2014 6 1745.4
175 2014 7 1881
176 2014 8 1933.1
177 2014 9 1809.3
178 2014 10 1912.8
179 2014 11 2357.5
180 2014 12 2679.2
181 2015 1 3115
182 2015 2 2925.2
183 2015 3 2591.3
184 2015 4 2007.9
185 2015 5 1858.1
186 2015 6 1899.9
187 2015 7 2067.7
188 2015 8 2052.7
189 2015 9 1901.3
190 2015 10 1987.3
191 2015 11 2249.1
192 2015 12 2588.2
193 2016 1 3091.7
194 2016 2 2652.3
195 2016 3 2356.3
196 2016 4 2083.8
197 2016 5 1965.8
198 2016 6 2000.7
199 2016 7 2186.6
200 2016 8 2208.4
201 2016 9 1947.8
202 2016 10 1925.2
203 2016 11 2159.4
204 2016 12 2866.3
205 2017 1 2914.2
206 2017 2 2340.6
207 2017 3 2523.7
208 2017 4 1932.5
209 2017 5 1892.5
210 2017 6 1910.9
211 2017 7 2142.1
212 2017 8 2094.3
213 2017 9 1920.9
214 2017 10 2032
215 2017 11 2357.7
216 2017 12 3084.5
217 2018 1 3335
218 2018 2 2705.9
219 2018 3 2792.6
220 2018 4 2346.3
221 2018 5 2050.9
222 2018 6 2058.7
223 2018 7 2344.6
224 2018 8 2307.7
225 2018 9 2151.5
226 2018 10 2279.1
11 2709.9
12 2993.1
1 3399.9
2 2999.2
3 2899.9
4 2201.1
5 2121
6 2115.2
 7 2407.5
8 2437.2
9 2215.6
10 2472.3
MINIMISE MSE OF TRAINING DATASET TO FIND ALPHA

MSE

ALPHA
BETA
GAMMA

s.t. Constarints
0 1

Initial Values

month USgas
1 2510.5
2 2330.7
3 2050.6
4 1783.3
5 1632.9
6 1513.1
7 1525.6
8 1653.1
9 1475
10 1567.8
11 1908.5
12 2587.5
1 2677 13.875
2 2309.5 -1.766667
3 2246.6 16.33333
4 1807.2 1.991667
5 1522.4 -9.208333
6 1444.4 -5.725
7 1598.1 6.041667
8 1669.2 1.341667
9 1494.1 1.591667
10 1649.1 6.775
11 1701 -17.29167
12 2120.2 -38.94167
-2.081944
 F4_SES_OPTMSE
FORECAST A-F (A-F)/A |A-F| |A-F|/A (A-F)^2
2709.9 1 2709.9 1 7343558
2993.1 1 2993.1 1 8958648
3399.9 1 3399.9 1 11559320
2999.2 1 2999.2 1 8995201
2899.9 1 2899.9 1 8409420
2201.1 1 2201.1 1 4844841
2121 1 2121 1 4498641
2115.2 1 2115.2 1 4474071
2407.5 1 2407.5 1 5796056
 2437.2 1 2437.2 1 5939944
2215.6 1 2215.6 1 4908883
2472.3 1 2472.3 1 6112267
AVERAGE 2580.992 1 2580.992 1 6820071
 FORECAST ACCURACY METRICS
SES
Mean ErrorME 2580.992
Mean AbsolMAE 2580.992
Mean PerceMPE 100
Mean AbsolMAPE 100
Mean SquarMSE 6820071
Root MeanRMSE 2611.527
THEILS U