2822, 1:17 Pat ‘The Ukraine's population is lower than previously beloved | Obserwator Finansowy: Ekonomia | Gospodarka| Polska | Swiat
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Michat Kozak
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The Ukraine’s population is lower than 29.06.2020
previously believed
T he population of Ukraine is lower by nearly 5 million people than the previously
reported figures, which were used in recent years for economic planning and
analyses. The new data indicate that it will be necessary to redesign the economic policy.
hitpsiwuuobserwatorfinansowy/plin-anglshthe-ukraines-populatonie-lower-than-previusly-bellaved! 163128722, 11:17 PM ‘The Ukraine's population is lower than previously beloved | Obserwator Finansowy: Ekonomia | Gospodarka| Polska | Swiat
(Lawrence, CC BY-NC-ND)
At the end of January 2020, the Ukrainian authorities published the results of an electronic
population census carried out in 2019. The last traditional census, conducted in accordance with
international standards, took place in 2001. Back then Ukraine's population reached 48.5 million
people. Those figures were then repeatedly adjusted in order to account for the numbers of deaths
and births, as well as the Russian annexation of Crimea, and the migration. As a result, the
Ukrainian authorities were making key economic decisions on the basis of population estimates
which — as it now turns out — had very little to do with reality.
Ukraine's population will keep decreasing
As part of the implemented cost-cutting measures, the Ukrainian government decided that, instead
of a traditional census, it would carry out a substitute — an electronic census. Just a few days
before the announcement of the new results, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (Ukrstat)
‘reported that the countrys population was 41.9 million people. Meanwhile, it turned out that the
Ukrainian population is actually far lower, reaching only 37.282 million.
The number of women in Ukraine is 20.01 million, while the number of men is much lower and
reaches only 17.28 million. Ukraine's overall population includes 5.756 million children under the
age of 15 (15.4 per cent of the population), 3.584 million people aged 15-24 (9.6 per cent), 16.458
million people in the working age group of 25-54 years (44.1 per cent), 5.243 million people in the
age group of 55-64 years (14.1 per cent), as well as 6.248 million people over 60 (16.8 per cent). In
total there are 11.501 million old age pensioners in Ukraine, which accounts for as much as 30.9
per cent of the country's overall popula “onic population census did not cover
hitpsiwuwobserwatorfinansowy/plin-anglshthe-ukraines-populatonie-lower-than-previously-bellaved 216sizer, 1147 Pm ‘The Utcane’s populations wer than previous belived | Obsewator Finansony: Ekonomia | Gospodara| Polska | Swit
the group of approximately 2.5 million Ukrainians who live in the territory of the Russian-annexed
Crimea and residents of the parts of the Donbass region still controlled by the pro-Russian
separatists.
Apart from the age structure, another element of vital importance for economic analyses is the
territorial distribution of the country's population. As many as one-tenth of all Ukrainians live in
country’s capital, Kiev. However, if we also include all the “satellite towns” and the Kiev Oblast
surrounding the capital, with a combined population of 2.289 million people, it turns out that
Ukraine's administrative centre has almost 6 million residents, which accounts for 16 per cent of all
Ukrainians.
One factor that has strongly contributed to the reduction in the size of the Ukrainian population is
emigration, In December 2019, the Ukrainian government published data indicating that nearly 4
million people have left the country since 2010. Contrary to previous expectations, the introduction
of a visa-free regime for the citizens of Ukraine by the European Union did not have a decisive
effect on emigration. Instead, the migratory movements of the Ukrainian workers were mainly
driven by internal economic factors — the authorities reported.
Unfortunately, there are no prospects for the reversal of these negative trends. According to
research conducted at the end of 2019 by the Kiev-based public opinion research centre Research
& Branding Group, only 6 per cent of Ukrainians plan to have at least one child in the near future.
In 2012, the percentage of families planning to have a baby soon reached only 10 per cent, Today,
the average Ukrainian family has 1.4 children. However, in order to stop the population decline —
let alone ensuring population growth — each Ukrainian family would need to have an average of
about 2.2 children.
The consequences of the new population data for public policy
“For decades, the functioning of the Ukrainian state was based on inertia, Annual budgets were
adopted, various tax relief measures were calculated, strategies and programs were prepared and
implemented, entire branches of industry were reformed, But the exact size of the country’s
population wasn't clear. This situation was further exacerbated by the war and the occupation of
Ukrainian territories,” such a description of the situation prior to the census was presented by the
Ukrainian Radio.
The results of the census showed that the data which were taken as the starting point for various
assessments and analyses, both by the ne international financial institutions,
including the International Monetary Ft noved from reality. The difference
hitpsiwuwobserwatorfinansowy/plin-anglshthe-ukraines-populatonie-lower-than-previously-bellaved aiesizeza, 11.17 Pa ‘The Utcane’s populations wer than previous beleves | Obsewator Finansony: Ekonomia | Gospodara| Polska | Swit
between the previously assumed size of the population and the actual number of Ukraine's
residents determined during the electronic census exceeds 10 per cent. On the plus side, this
means that certain macroeconomic indicators will improve, including the values of GDP and
investment per capita, which were previously calculated on the basis of higher population figures.
On the other hand, issues of transport infrastructure will now require a thorough rethinking. The
strong concentration of the population in Kiev and several other metropolitan areas means that
Ukraine will soon be able to “give up" on maintaining its extensive road network, because it may
become a relatively desolated country that should be able to cope with a relatively limited network
of communication routes linking the major population centers and the main exit points for
commodity exports, such as the seaports and land border crossings. The “latifundization”
(concentration of land ownership) of the Ukrainian countryside — as planned by the government —
and the predicted depopulation of rural areas that it would entail, will only accelerate this process.
The results of the electronic census also show the extremely difficult condition of Ukraine's public
finances. After accounting for the people employed in the public sector, it turns out that just
a quarter of all Ukrainians have to support the remaining 75 per cent of the population, and the
taxes collected from these workers have to finance the health care and the education sectors, the
army, the wages of the public sector employees, and above all, the retirement pensions of almost
one third of their fellow citizens. This would be a difficult task even in a normally functioning
economy,
Methodological issues
The United Nations (UN) recommends that member states carry out a population census at least
once every ten years, indicating that the data obtained in this way are essential for shaping the
economic policies, development planning, social welfare and assistance programs, and for the
analysis of business risks. The UN also provides detailed guidelines regarding the methodology that
countries should follow during the census. In Ukraine, the size of the population was estimated
based on the comparisons and juxtapositions of data obtained, among others, from mobile
network operators, as well as data from the available studies concerning households and public
registers.
According to Oleksandr Gladun from the Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, data obtained in this way are less accurate than those
obtained in a traditional census carried out in accordance with the methodology recommended by
the UN. “The objective of a population « nd out how many people live in the
country, but also to learn about the exe re throughout the whole territory,
hitpsiwuwobserwatorfinansowy/plin-anglshthe-ukraines-populatonie-lower-than-previously-bellaved a6sizer, 1147 Pm ‘The Utcane’s population's wer than previous elves | Obsewator Finansony: Ekonomia | Gospodara| Polska | Swit
including the smallest towns and villages. The coverage of the territory of Ukraine with mobile
networks is still not complete, and the percentage of mobile phone users in rural areas is lower
than in the cities,” stated the scientist.
The government's digital census is assessed in a similar manner by its co-organizer Volodymyr
Sarioglo. “In the traditional census survey we collect information about the level of education,
employment, family status, and the number of children in combination with the level of education.
And all of this is carried out separately for each location. Meanwhile, what has been published by
the government is not really an electronic population census, but simple estimates of the size of
the population, its age and sex structure, as well as territorial distribution,” he commented
The reliance of the recent census on state registers, which are generally considered to be
unreliable, has also been questioned, “The margin of error is less than 3 per cent, and higher
accuracy is not necessary to make effective management decisions both in the government sector
and in business,” argued Dmytro Dubilet, a cabinet minister without portfolio, responsible for the
conduct of the population census.
In the next two years, the government plans to create a unified register of Ukrainian citizens. This
database would be developed through the merging of all the distributed state registers. As a result,
the government would have up-to-date information on the number of citizens and could use these
data when planning its activities.
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Ukraine — emigration demographics
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