Gettingon 1

TheStrategyUnit
Gettingon,gettingahead
Adiscussionpaper:analysingthetrendsanddriversof socialmobility
November2008
Contents
Ministerialforeword Executivesummary Introduction Definingsocialmobility Trendsinsocialmobility Driversofsocialmobility Furtherdiscussion
3 5 9 12 17 38 98
2008,TheStrategyUnit,CabinetOffice
2
ForewordbytheMinisteroftheCabinetOffice
Since the Prime Minister took office he has put fairness at the heart of hisagenda,guidedbythefirmbelief that everyone in society, regardless oftheirbackground,shouldhavethe opportunity to achieve their full potential. This is not just a moral imperativebutaneconomiconetoo. Britain in 2008 is very different to 1997 and will be more so by 2020. We have seen rapid and radical changes in the global economy. To succeed in this new economic climate Britain must be one of the worldshighestskilledeconomies.
We must ensure all in our workforcearereadyforthejobsof thefuture. Tothis end, the Prime Minster commissioned his Strategy Unit to produce a discussion paper which would analysealltheevidenceavailable on how people from every backgroundcangetonandahead in life, and identify the areas where government policy could havemostimpact. We have consulted widely with experts in the field, drawing on a reference group of leading academics, to ensure this discussion paper recognises the widerange of perspectivesinthis area.
The report clearly shows that a persons social background makesadifferencetothegoals they are able to achieve in life. There has been a vibrant academic debate about whether this got worse for the generationleavingschoolinthe 1980s compared to those leaving school in the 1970s. However the general consensus is that social mobility did not get better during these years. In fact the conclusion reached is that despite the huge economic, social and political changes between1970and2000, social mobilityinBritaindidnotrise.
ForewordbytheMinisteroftheCabinetOffice
Since 2000, new evidence suggests this might be beginning to change. The latest academic research shows there are encouraging signs with many of the educational inequalities that prevent social mobility now being addressed. However, we still have a way to go to realise the Governments ambition of a society where social background does not determine future success in life, and where everyone can reachtheirfullpotential. This paper illustrates the critical importance of four factorsthathaveanimpacton people'slifechances: the care and development of children in their early years, the quality of our schools, continued and high quality education and training post16 and constantly improving the skills of our workforce.Thisiswhywearefully committed and focussed on real action in these areas. We have already taken forward landmark policies to deliver real improvements, such as Sure Start, the National Challenge, Building Schools for the Future, extending the post16 offer, raising participation in Higher Education and providing training intheworkplacethroughschemes suchasTraintoGain.Butthereis moretodo. Wewillnowsharethisreportwith academics, commentators and stakeholder groups and look forwardto hearing theirreactions. We will share this report with every government department so they can consider how they can play a part. We will share this reportwiththeNationalEconomic Council so that our strategy for a downturn will ensure that every part of society will be well placed togetaheadinanupturn.Andwe will publish a White Paper to ensure that, even in a difficult economic climate, the Government will work to ensure thateveryoneinourcountryhasa fair chance to get on and get ahead.
Thispaperaimstodevelopaframeworktoinformfuturepolicy developmentacrossgovernmentinordertoimprovesocial mobility

Improvingsocialmobilityisattheheartofthe Governmentsagenda
Summary
Thispaperaimstoanalysethetrendsanddriversof socialmobility
Socialmobilityhastwocoreaspects: ensuringtherearebetterjobsforeach successivegeneration,soourchildren candobetterthanus. makingsurethattherearefairer chances,sothateveryonehasthe opportunitytoaccessthosejobsin linewiththeirpotential
Thisdiscussionpaperexamineswhathashappenedto socialmobilityoverthepasthalfcenturyandpresents thepotentialdriversoffuturesocialmobility Toincreasesocialmobility,wemustraiseeveryones capabilitiesandopportunities.Thisinvolvespositioning theUKtobenefitfromemergingjobopportunitiesina globaleconomy,andbuildingpeoplescapabilitiesso theycanobtainthebetterjobsofthefuture Betterjobshavetobeavailableatallskilllevels,andnot simplyforthosewhoarealreadythemosthighlyskilled. Similarlybetterjobsneedtobeavailablethroughoutthe country,andnotjustinthoseareasthatarecurrentlythe mostprosperous
Twoaspectsofsocialmobilityandtheirtrendsoverthelastfive decadesareanalysedindetail
Summary
Bothaspectsofsocialmobilityhavedemonstrateddifferenttrendsinthe pasthalfcentury.Broadly,socialmobilityisnogreaterorlesssince1970
Afterthewar,there was an acceleration in the creation of better jobs, settling at a new,highergrowthratemoreclericalandprofessionaljobsemerged.Onaverage childrenhavehadbetterjobsthantheirparents But,sincethewar,theUKsrecordonmakingsurepeoplehaveafairchancetoget thesebetterjobsdoesnotcomparewellinternationally.Wecoulddomuchbetter:a personssocialbackgroundstillmakesamarkeddifferencetotheopportunitiesthey have What is now clear is that although social mobility did not fall between 19702000, policydidnotsucceedinincreasingit.In fact, there has been a vibrant academic debate about whether a parents background became a greater determinate of a childs success for the generation leaving school in the 1980s compared to those leavingschoolinthe1970s However,manyoftheeducationalinequalitiesthatpreventsocialmobilityarebeing addressed. Indeed, recent academic research shows there have been positive changessincearound2000.
IncreasingsocialmobilitywillinvolvepositioningtheUKto benefitfromemergingjobopportunities
Summary
Longtermeconomictrendsdrivingemergingjobopportunitiesinthe globaleconomy
Continuingtechnologicalinnovation:technologicaladvanceswill increasinglyenablefirmstofragmentandinternationalisetheirproduction processes,openingupfurtheropportunitiesfortheUKtospecialisein higherskilledareas Shiftstoalowcarboneconomy:ifGovernmentistomeetitscarbon targets,therewilllikelybeopportunitiestoexpandhighskilljobsasdemand stimulatesinvestmentinnewenvironmentaltechnologies Growthinemergingeconomies:asglobalbarrierstotradefalland emergingeconomiescontinuetogrow,demandfromanemergingmiddle classinplacessuchasChinaandIndiaforUKproducedhighskillgoods andservicescouldaccelerate Increaseddemandforhighqualityservices:changinglifestylesand greaterexpectationswilllikelyincreasedomesticdemandforhighquality personalisedgoodsandservices TheUKneedstohaveaclear,strategicresponsetothesetrends.This includesidentifyinghowbesttocreateaneconomythatadaptsmorerapidly toemergingopportunities
Increasingsocialmobilitywillinvolvebuildingpeoples capabilitiessotheycanobtainthebetterjobsofthefuture
Summary
Fourlifestagescrucialtobuildingpeoplescapabilities
Givingchildrenthebeststartintheirearlyyears:thereisgrowingevidencetheseyearsarecriticalto successinlaterlife,notleastthroughbasicphysiologicalandbraindevelopment.However,intheUK, familybackgroundstillhasalargeimpactonthepaceofdevelopment Improvingeducationalattainmentatschool:howchildrendoinschoolremainsthesinglemost importantdeterminantoffuturesuccess.However,oneoftheUKsmajorinternationalweaknesseshas beenthelargenumberofpeopleemergingfromschoolwithfewqualifications Creatingpathwaysfromeducationtowork:gainingadegreewillremainthemostlikelywaytogetthe bestjobs.Butwhilemostchildrenseethisastheobviouspathtofollow,toomanywiththerightresults fromtheleastadvantagedbackgroundsarenotmakingittouniversity.Conversely,childrenfromthese backgroundsareheavilyoverrepresentedinthevocationalsystem,andamongthosedroppingoutofthe systemaltogether Helpingpeoplegetoninwork:mostoftheUKsworkforcein2020arealreadyadultstoday,soincreasing mobilitymustalsofocusonequippingthemtotakeadvantageoffutureopportunities.Peoplestraining opportunitiesatworkcurrentlyservetoentrenchpreviousunfairnessbygoingmainlytothealreadyskilled Ineachoftheseareas,Governmenthasmademajorinvestments Duringeachoftheselifestages,peoplesfamiliesandcommunitiesplayacrucialroleinsupportingthemto buildtheircapabilities:creatingstrongemotionalbondsbetweenparentsandchildrenhelpingparentsto staycloselyinvolvedintheirchildrenseducationprovidingresourcestoallowchildrentheopportunitiesto developensuringchildrensaspirationstosucceedareraised
Introduction
Introduction
1.Definingsocialmobility
2.Trendsinsocialmobility
3.Driversofsocialmobility
Furtherdiscussion
Thisdiscussionpaperprovidesahighleveloverviewofthe trendsanddriversofsocialmobility
Introduction
ThePrimeMinistercommissionedtheStrategyUnitintheCabinetOfficetoproducea discussionpaperonsocialmobility.Thepurposeofthispaperisto: provideananalyticalbasetoinformaforthcomingwhitepaper discusswhatismeantbysocialmobilityandcollateevidenceonhowithaschangedand whatislikelytodriveitinthefuture provideasummaryofthelatestacademicthinkingintheseareas,althoughthepaper doesnotattempttoprovideanexhaustiveaccountofalltheworkthathasbeen conducted InproducingthisdocumenttheStrategyUnithasdrawnonevidenceanddiscussionswitha rangeofacademicsandotherexperts Thisdocumentdoesnotidentifyfuturegovernmentpolicybutdoessetoutaframeworkfor thinkingaboutthekeystrategicchoicesfacinggovernment
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Thepaperisstructuredintothreesections
Introduction
Section
Aim
Questionsthispaperseekstoanswer Whatissocialmobility? Howcanitbedefinedandmeasured? Howdothesedefinitionsrelatetowidergovernment objectives? WhathavebeenthetrendsinsocialmobilityintheUK overthepasthalfcentury? HowdoestheUKsexperiencecomparetosimilar countries? Whatarethedriversshapingemergingjobopportunities thatcouldfacilitategreatersocialmobilityinthefuture? Whatarethekeydriversthathelpbuilduppeoples capabilitiesatdifferentstagesoftheirlives,enablingthem totakeuptheopportunitiesforsocialmobility? Whatroledoeswidersociety,includingfamilyandlocal community,playinhelpingbuilduppeoplescapabilities throughouttheirlives?
1.Definition Provideaclear definitionofsocial mobility 2.Trends Setoutwhathas happenedto socialmobility overthepasthalf century Outlinea frameworkfor consideringthe driversofsocial mobility
3.Drivers
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Definition
Introduction
Thispaperfocusesontwocoreaspectsofsocialmobilityensuringthere arebetterjobsandthatpeoplehavefairerchancestoaccessthosejobs Ensuringtherearebetterjobsinvolvesraisingtheemploymentrateand gettingtheconditionsrighttocreatehigherqualityemploymentintheUK
Ensuringpeoplehavefairerchancesrequiresthateveryoneiscapableof fulfillingtheirpotential,withaccesstoafullrangeofjobopportunities regardlessoftheirsocialbackground Whilesocialmobilityisdefinedintermsofemploymentoutcomes,making theseoutcomesbetterandfairerwillalsoimprovemanyotheraspectsof peopleslives
Furtherdiscussion
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Thispaperfocusesontwocoreaspectsofsocialmobility ensuringtherearebetterjobsandthatpeoplehavefairer chancestoaccessthosejobs

Betterjobs:eachsuccessivegenerationgains moreandhigherqualityjobs
Totalnumberofjobs greateringenerationB, soworklessnessreduced Jobsingeneration Barehigherquality
Definition
Fairerchances:withineachgeneration, everyoneisabletorealisetheirpotentialand accessjobopportunities

Socialbackground (e.g.income,socialclass) Accesstojob opportunities
Upper
Numberofjobs
Higher qualityjobs Middle qualityjobs Lower qualityjobs

GenerationA
Morehigher qualityjobs
Higher qualityjobs Middle Middle qualityjobs

Fullrangeof opportunities opentoall regardlessof social background
Higher qualityjobs
Middle qualityjobs Lower qualityjobs

GenerationB
Fewerlower qualityjobs
Lower qualityjobs
GenerationB
Lower
GenerationA
Thisisanabsolutemeasureofsocialmobility
Thisisarelativemeasureofsocialmobility
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Ensuringtherearebetterjobsinvolvesraisingtheemployment rateandgettingtheconditionsrighttocreatehigherquality employmentintheUK
Definition
Raisingtheemploymentrate
Numberofjobs
Higher qualityjobs Middle qualityjobs Lower qualityjobs

GenerationA
Higher qualityjobs

GenerationB
Forsuccessivecohorts:foreachgenerationtogain morejobs,theeconomyneedstocreatemore employmentopportunitiesforeachsuccessivecohort Anexistingfocus:thishastypicallybeentheambition ofgovernmentpolicy,embodiedintheaimtoraise theemploymentrateto80% Prioritygivenhistoriccontext:thisisaprioritygiven thehistoricfallsintheemploymentrate,particularly formen,inthe1970sand1980s
Creatinghigherqualityemployment Capabilitiesandjobopportunities:creatinghigherqualityemploymentinvolvesbothraisingpeoplescapabilitiesto undertakesuchjobs,andpositioningtheUKtobenefitfromemergingjobopportunitiesinaglobaleconomy Notjustthetop:thisisnotsimplyaboutcreatingmoretopqualityjobs.Itcouldalsobedrivenbynewjob opportunitiesinthemiddleofthedistributionreplacinglowerqualityjobs Tasksversusjobs:thereisadistinctionbetweenthequalityofjobsandthetasksundertakenaspartofthosejobs. Forexample,taskslikeofficecleaningstillneedtohappen,butthequalityofthejobsassociatedwiththesetasks canvarywidely,dependingonthetechnologyavailabletosupportthem,shiftpatterns,paylevels,etc.

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Ensuringpeoplehavefairerchancesrequiresthateveryoneis capableoffulfillingtheirpotential,withaccesstoafullrangeof jobopportunitiesregardlessoftheirsocialbackground

Reducingtheeffectofsocialbackground Parentalachievement:socialbackgroundhas usuallybeenmeasuredintheacademic literaturebyparentalachievement,beit incomeoroccupation Personalcharacteristics:however,equally importantdimensionsarepersonal characteristicslikegenderandethnicity Realisingpotential:noneofthesedimensions ofsocialbackgroundshouldholdback peoplesabilitytorealisetheirpotential
Socialbackground (e.g.income,socialclass)
Definition
Accesstojob opportunities
Upper Higher qualityjobs Middle

Fullrangeof opportunities opentoall regardlessof social background

GenerationB
Lower
GenerationA
Accessingjobopportunities Developingeveryonescapabilities: tobegenuinelyabletoaccessafullrangeofjobopportunities, everyonemusthavechancetodeveloptheirowncapabilitiesinlinewiththeirpotential Opportunitiesatallskilllevels: betterjobshavetobeavailableatallskilllevels,andnotsimplyfor thosewiththehighestlevels Opportunitiesinallareas: betterjobsneedtobeavailablethroughoutthecountry,andnotjustinthose areasthatarecurrentlythemostprosperous
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Whilesocialmobilityisdefinedintermsofemployment outcomes,makingtheseoutcomesbetterandfairerwillalso improvemanyotheraspectsofpeopleslives

Employmentoutcomesarerelatedtootheraspects ofpeopleslives.Forexample: Education Housing
Definition
Andabetterjobneedstobeunderstoodwithinthis broadercontext Theacademicliteratureonsocialmobilitytypically ranksjobsbyoccupationaltypeorincome, comparinghowchildrenhavefaredrelativetotheir parents However,abetterjobisincreasinglyunderstoodas onethatfitswiththerestofapersonslifeto achieveabetterworklifebalance Otherdimensionsonwhichpeoplejudgethequality oftheirjobincluderelationshipswithcolleagues, opportunitiestoupskillandprogress,working conditionsandhowmuchcontroltheyhaveover theirworkinglife
Family
Employment outcomes
Health Community
Employmentoutcomesdetermine,andare determinedby,alltheseaspects.So,for example,strongerfamilyrelationshipshelp buildchildrenscapabilities,whilebetter employmentoutcomesstrengthenfamilies
Social status
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Trends Betterjobs
Introduction
Trendsinsuccessivegenerationsgettingbetterjobsaregenerally measuredbylookingatchangesinoccupations Classifyingsuccessivegenerationsintooccupationalclasses suggeststhoseenteringthelabourmarketafterthewarhadan improvedchanceofbeinginabetterjobthantheirparents Directlycomparingindividualswiththeirfathersshowsthat,since the1970s,theproportionofmenwithbetterjobsthantheirfather wasbasicallythesame Whileforwomen,theproportionwithbetterjobsthantheirfather hascontinuedtorise Totalemploymentandtherateofemploymenthavecontinuedto risesincetheearly1990s.Thereisalsosomeevidencethatthe qualityofjobsintheUKisimproving
2.Trendsinsocialmobility a.BetterjobsintheUK b.FairerchancesintheUK c.Internationalcomparisons d.Lookingforward 3.Driversofsocialmobility
Furtherdiscussion
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Trendsinsuccessivegenerationsgettingbetterjobsare generallymeasuredbylookingatchangesinoccupations
Trends Betterjobs
Measuringoveralljobqualityisdifficult. Theacademicliteratureusesschemasof occupationalclassestoclassifythequality ofdifferentjobs Ascertainingwhether successivegenerationsare gettingbetterjobsrequires classifyingindividualsand theirparentsusingthis schema
Example occupationalclass: Example occupations:
Managerialand professional
Intermediate
Routine Semiskilledand unskilledmanualworkers Children:
Doctors,lawyers, Foremen, managers skilledmanual Parents: Managerialand professional Intermediate Routine
Parents and children:
Managerialand professional Intermediate Routine
Childrencanthenbedividedintothosethatareina higherclassthantheirparents,thosethatareinalower classandthosethatareinthesameclass Thepercentageofthosethatareinahigherclassthan theirfathergivesanindicationofupwardmobility,known asintergenerationalupwardabsolutesocial mobility.Subtractingthosethatareinalowerclass yieldsameasureofnetupwardsocialmobility
Children: Becomehigherclass thanparents Remainsameclassas parents Becomelowerclass thanparents
Morechildren experienced upwardmobility thandownward mobility,sooverall, thechildreninthis exampleachieved netupwardsocial mobility
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Classifyingsuccessivegenerationsintooccupationalclasses suggeststhoseenteringthelabourmarketafterthewarhadan improvedchanceofbeinginabetterjobthantheirparents

Structuralchangesshiftedmanualworktowards managerialandprofessionaloccupations
1* Occupationalclasses191191,GreatBritainCensus,percent
Trends Betterjobs
Thereforesuccessivegenerationshavebeenmore likelytogethigherqualityjobs
3* Occupationalclassofadultsaged35andover
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
2001censusdataisnot available,butsimilar datafrom2000suggests 2 thesetrendscontinued
100%
100%
Manual workers Routinewhite collar Employersand proprietors Managersand Professional
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1991 2000
Thesedatashowgroups ofindividualsgrouped togetheraccordingto whentheywereborn
Manual workers Routinewhite collar Employersand proprietors Managersand Professional
50%
0%
5 36 4 5 19 46 5 5 19 56 6 5 19 66 7 5 19 76 8 5 19 86 9 5 19
1911
1931
1951
1971
1991
WhenclassifyingthewholeUKpopulationintooccupationalclasses(lefthandchartabove)itisclearthattherewasan accelerationinthecreationofbetterjobsafterthewar,andthatthesejobshavecontinuedtobecreatedrapidly Aswouldbeexpected,whenclassifyingsuccessivegenerationsintooccupationalclasses(righthandchartabove) therewasalsoanaccelerationinthenumberofpeopleineachgenerationattaininggoodjobsafterthewar. Butgaininganaccuratepictureoftrendsinsocialmobilityrequiresdirectlycomparingtheoccupationsofindividuals withineachgenerationwiththeoccupationoftheirfatherswhentheyweregrowingup(seenextslide)

*OccupationalclassdatahasbeendividedintofourbroadclassificationsforeachdatasettoaidcomparisonDataforthe2001Censusisnotavailable,butLabourForceSurveydatafrom1991 2000,whichusesadifferentoccupationalscheme(forexampleitdoesnotclassifyanyindividualsasemployersandproprietors),suggeststhesetrendscontinued(1),(2)Gallie(2006)SkillChange andtheLabourMarket:Gender,ClassandUnemployment(3)HeathandPayne(1999)TwentiethCenturyTrendsinSocialMobility
pr
Decadewhen turned35
e1 93
19
Directlycomparingindividualswiththeirfathersshowsthat, sincethe1970s,theproportionofmenwithbetterjobsthantheir fatherwasbasicallythesame

ForthegenerationsofmenstartingworkafterWWII, therewasastepchangeintheproportiongetting betterjobsthantheirfather
Netpercentageofmeninhigheroccupationalclassthanfather,surveysofbirth 1 cohorts 35
30 25 20 15 10 5
Trends Betterjobs
whichhasled,sincethe1970s,totheproportionof menwithbetterjobsthantheirfatherremaining broadlyconstantwhenlookingacrosstheworkforce

Percentageofmeninhighersocialclassthanfather,surveysofentirepopulation 4 incertainyears,linesshowconfidenceintervals
40 35
Mobility remainedhigh Stepchange inmobility
30 25 20 15 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Decadeborn: 0 <1900 190009 191019 192029 193039 194049 195059 Decadewhen 191424 192534 193544 194554 195564 196574 197584 turned25:
Thisbroadlyflatupwardmobilityismirroredby flatdownwardmobility(notshown),resultingin flatnetupwardmobility.Notethatblueandred dotsrepresentdifferenttypesofsurveyandare notcomparable
Datathatcomparetheoccupationalclassofmenandtheir Crosssectionsurveyscomparetheoccupationalclass fathersconfirmthatthesocialmobilityofthoseentering ofallmeninthepopulationwiththeirfathers,rather thelabourmarketafterWWIIwashigherthanthose thandividingthedataintodifferentgenerations enteringthelabourmarketbeforeWWII.Italsoshows thatsubsequentgenerationscontinuedtoexperiencethis Suchsurveyssuggestthatthelikelihoodofmenmoving 2 toahigheroccupationalclassthantheirfatherhas higherlevelofmobility remainedconstantsocialmobilityofmenhasbeenflat Thesedatasuggestthiswasquiteastarkstepchangein 5 sincethe1970s 3 mobility,butotherdatasuggestamoregradualincrease
(1),(2)HeathandPayne(1999)TwentiethCenturyTrendsinSocialMobility(3)Goldthorpe(1987)SocialMobilityandClassStructureinModernBritain(4),(5) GoldthorpeandMills(2008)TrendsinIntergenerationalClassMobilityinModernBritain
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Whileforwomen,theproportionwithbetterjobsthantheir fathercontinuestorise
Trends Betterjobs
Forrecentgenerationsofwomen,theproportionwith betterjobsthantheirfatherhasbeenrising
1 Netupwardmobilityofbirthcohortsofwomenrelativetofather,percent
solookingacrosstheworkforce,theproportion withbetterjobscontinuestorise,althoughitislower thanformen

Percentageofwomeninhighersocialclassthanfather,surveysofentire 2 populationincertainyears,linesshowconfidenceintervals
40 35 30 25 20 15 1973
10 5 0 5 10 15 <1900 190009 191019 192029 193039 194049 195059 Decadeborn Decadeturned25 191524 192534 193544 194554 195564 196574 197584
Steadyincreaseinupwardmobility, mirroredbyadeclineindownward mobility(notshown)
Steadyincreaseinmobility, fromalowbase
Blueandreddotsrepresent differenttypesofsurveyand arenotcomparable

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Since1930,generationsofwomenhaveexperiencedsteadilyincreasingchancesofgainingabetterjobthantheir 3 father,comparedtothosebornbefore1930whowereactuallymorelikelytomovetoaloweroccupationalclass Crosssectionalsurveyssuggestthatthenumberofwomenattainingabetteroccupationthantheirparentshas continuedtosteadilyrisesince1970,mirroredbyadeclineinthosebecomingdownwardlymobilerelativetotheir 4 parents.However,upwardmobilityofwomenin2005remainedabsolutelylowerthanformen Occupationalclassanalysisofhouseholdssuggeststhattheincreasingnumbersofupwardlymobilewomentendto formhouseholdswithmenthatholdsimilarorhigheroccupationalclasspositions,sothepatternofsocialmobilityata 5 householdlevelissimilartothatfoundformen

(1),(3)HeathandPayne(1999)TwentiethCenturyTrendsinSocialMobility(2),(4),(5)GoldthorpeandMills(2008)TrendsinIntergenerationalClassMobility inModernBritain
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Totalemploymentandtherateofemploymenthavecontinuedto risesincetheearly1990s.Thereisalsosomeevidencethatthe qualityofjobsintheUKisimproving

Theemploymentrateandthetotalnumberemployed havebothgrownsteadilysincetheearly1990s
Percentageofworkingagepopulationemployedandeconomicallyactive(lefthand scale)andtotalnumberofpeopleemployed(righthandscale),seasonally 1 adjusted,overtime
Trends Betterjobs
AstudyofjobqualityintheUKshowsitisrelatively highandhasimprovedsince2000
2 Indexscoreofjobqualityin2000and2006,bycountry
Denmark Sweden
85 80 75
30,000 25,000
Netherlands UK Finland
20,000 15,000 70 10,000 65 60 5,000 0
Ireland France Germany Italy Spain Portugal Greece
1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
EmploymentRate EconomicActivityRate Totalemployed(000s)
2000
2006
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Theeconomicactivityrateofmenfellinthe1980sand1990s,whiletheeconomicactivityrateofwomen 3 roseduringthisperiod Theproportionofpeopleinemploymentworkingmorethan45hoursperweekhassteadilydecreased: 4 from26.3%atthestartof1997to20.2%inJuneAugust2008 Theproportionofemployersofferingflexibleworkinghasincreased:90%ofworkplacesofferedoneor 5 moreformsofflexibleworkingin2006,upfrom85%in2003

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(1),(3),(4)OfficeforNationalStatistics(2008)LabourForceSurvey(2),(5)EuropeanLabourNetworkforEconomicPolicy(2008)EuropeanRestructuring Monitorreport2008Moreandbetterjobs:PatternsofemploymentexpansioninEurope
Trends Fairerchances
Introduction
Fairchancesarefundamentallyaboutpeoplehavingopportunities, butempiricalstudiesusuallymeasuredifferencesinoutcomes,which reflectbothopportunitiesandchoices Trendsinwhetherpeoplehavefairchancestoaccessbetterjobsare thereforegenerallymeasuredbylookingathowoutcomeslike incomeoroccupationarerelatedtosocialbackground Parentalincomebecameamoreimportantdeterminantofpeoples ownincomeforthosebornin1970comparedtothosebornin1958, suggestingchanceshadbecomelessfair However,theimportanceoffathersoccupationindeterminingmens ownoccupationappearstohaveremainedbroadlyconstant Therearenocleartrendsintheimportanceoffathersoccupationin determiningwomensownoccupation
Theseresultsarenotnecessarilycontradictory,asincreasedincome inequalityinthe1980scouldexplainthedifferencebetween measuresthatlookatincomeandoccupation
Furtherdiscussion
23
Fairchancesarefundamentallyaboutpeoplehaving opportunities,butempiricalstudiesusuallymeasuredifferences inoutcomes,whichreflectbothopportunitiesandchoices

Withoutopportunities,peoplecanhavenochoices abouthowtheyrealisetheirpotential
Barriertorealisingpotential excludesopportunities.Person mustacceptoutcomeB
Withopportunities,peoplecandecideforthemselves thebestwaytorealisetheirpotential
Nobarrierssoallopportunities available.Personcanchooseto takeupopportunityAorB
OutcomeA OpportunityA OpportunityB OutcomeB
OutcomeA OpportunityA OpportunityB OutcomeB
Opportunitiesmatterbuttounderstandthemoftenwehavetomeasuregapsinoutcomes Itisopportunitiesthatcount.Peoplecanthenchoosehowtotakethemupinlightoftheirresponsibilities, suchascaringforfamilymembers However,asitisempiricallydifficulttomeasureopportunities,itisusuallynecessarytolookatgapsin actualoutcomesbysocialbackground,geographicarea,etc. Intheory,itisthereforedifficulttodistinguishbetweensituationswherepeoplearechoosingoutcomesfrom arangeofopportunities,orareforcedtoacceptoutcomesbecausetheylackopportunities However,theevidenceinthispaperclearlyshowslargeandsystematicdifferencesinoutcomes,which startemergingatveryyoungages.Itwouldbedifficulttoarguethattheseemergethroughaprocessof individualchoicesofpeoplefacingfairchances
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Trendsinwhetherpeoplehavefairchancestoaccessbetter jobsaregenerallymeasuredbylookingathowoutcomeslike incomeoroccupationarerelatedtosocialbackground
Measuringpotentialandopportunityischallenging.Thispaperutilisesacademicworkthatanalysestherelative chancesofchildrenfromdifferentsocioeconomicbackgroundsgainingbetterjobs,i.e.outcomesratherthan opportunity.Theliteraturedescribesthistypeofmobilityasintergenerationalrelativesocialmobility Onestrandoftheliteraturemeasurestherelative chancesofpeoplewhogrewupinfamiliesindifferent partsoftheincomedistributionmovingtoanotherpart oftheincomedistributionlaterinlifeinter generationalrelativeincomemobility.Thiscanbe thoughtofastheimportanceoffamilybackgroundin determiningtheincomeofsomeonelaterinlife
Incomedistributionof parents Incomedistributionof children
Anotherstrandoftheacademicliteraturemeasures therelativechancesofpeoplewhogrewupinfamilies indifferentoccupationalclassesmovingtoa particularclassintergenerationalrelativeclass mobilityorsocialfluidity.Thiscanbethoughtofas theimportanceoffamilybackgroundindeterminingthe occupationalclassofsomeonelaterinlife

Parents: Children: Managerialand professional Intermediate Routine
Managerialand professional Intermediate Routine

Perfectmobilityif samechancefor bothchildrento gettothetop
Perfectmobilityifbothchildrenhavesame chanceofbeingprofessionalsrelativeto beingintermediate
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Parentalincomebecameamoreimportantdeterminantof peoplesownincomeforthosebornin1970comparedtothose bornin1958,suggestingchanceshadbecomelessfair

Comparingsonsbornin1958and1970,therewasan increaseintheimportanceoffamilybackgroundon obtaininghigherincomejobs
1 Immobilityindex(higher=familybackgroundmoreimportant)
Butthesedatarefertoindividualsthatenteredthe labourmarketinthelate1970sandearly90s
Year 1958 1958 cohort 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006
3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0
Life stage
Earlyyears
(05)
School Enteringwork Adulthood

(516) (1621) (21+)
1958
1970
1970 cohort Asthesecohortswereeducatedinthe1960s,1970sand1980s, theoutcomesdonotreflectanyofthechangestotheeducation systemoverthepasttwentyyears
Theimmobilityindexrosefrom2.80to2.95showingthat familyincomewasmoreimportantforthosebornin1970 thelatergenerationwaslessmobile
Awellknownstudyofmenbornin1958and1970investigatedhowtheirfamilyincomeastheyweregrowingupwas relatedtotheincometheyreceivedinadulthood.Itfoundthatfamilyincomewasmoreimportantindeterminingthe 2 incomeofthosebornin1970,suggestingthatsocialmobilitywaslowerforthelatergroup Otherdata,usingasmallersampleofpeople,suggestthattheimpactoffamilyincomeonattainingarelativelywell paidjobhasremainedbroadlyconstantforpeoplebornbetween1950and1971.Oneparticularmeasureofthis relationshipsuggestsitbecameimportantforlatergenerations,mirroringthefindingabove,butthismeasureislikelyto 3 beaffectedbyincreasesininequalityinthe1970sand1980s

(1),(2)BlandenandMachin(2008)UpandDowntheGenerationalIncomeLadderinBritain:PastChangesandFutureProspects(3)ErmischandNicoletti(2005) 26 IntergenerationalEarningsMobility:ChangesAcrossCohortsinBritain
However,theimportanceoffathersoccupationindetermining mensownoccupationappearstohaveremainedbroadly constant

Thereisconsiderableintergenerationalmovement betweenoccupations,butthisinpartiscausedbythe generalincreaseinjobqualityofthelast50years
Percentageofmenindifferentoccupationalsocialclasstotheirfather,linesshow 1 confidenceintervals 85
80 75 70 65 60 1972
Strippingoutthisgeneralrise,itcannotbeproved thattheimportanceofbackgroundindetermining occupationhaschanged

Parameterestimatesofclassfluidity,males2559,multiplicativeconstant,lines 2 showconfidenceintervals
0.6
Moremobility
Redandbluedots representdifferent typesofsurveysoare notcomparable
0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1972
Thesefiguresshowtotal mobilitysummingallthe intergenerational movementsbetween occupationsthatoccurred

1992 1997 2002
Althoughthesefindingssuggestanimprovementin relativemobility(adeclineintheimportanceof background),thisincreaseisnotstatisticallysignificant

1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
1977
1982
1987
Theimportanceofoccupationalclasstooccupationalmobilitycannotbemeasuredsimplybyassessinginter generationalmovementsbetweenclasses,asshiftsintheoccupationalstructurecloudtheanalysisageneral improvementinjobswouldcreatelotsofmobility,evenifrelativemobilityhadnotchanged Strippingoutthesechangesallowscomparisonofthechancesofchildrenfromdifferentbackgroundshavingacertain occupationwhentheyenterthelabourmarketrelativeoccupationalmobility.Suchanalysissuggeststherehas 3 beennochangeinrelativesocialmobilitysincethe1970softencharacterisedasconstantflux Usingalternativedata,withsmallersamples,anotherstudyfindsthatanalysingbirthcohortsbornfrom1900to1960, 4 thereisactuallyastatisticallysignificantdeclineintheimportanceoffamilybackgroundongainingabetterjob

(1),(2)GoldthorpeandMills(2008)TrendsinIntergenerationalClassMobilityinModernBritain(3)Goldthorpe(1987)SocialMobilityandClassStructurein ModernBritain(4)HeathandPayne(1999)TwentiethCenturyTrendsinSocialMobility
27
Therearenocleartrendsintheimportanceoffathers occupationindeterminingwomensownoccupation
Themobilityofwomenishigh,butagainthiscouldbe distortedbythegeneralincreaseinjobqualityofthe last50years

Percentageofwomenindifferentoccupationalsocialclasstotheirfather,lines 1 showconfidenceintervals
Strippingoutthisgeneralrise,thereisnocleartrend intheimportanceofsocialbackground
Parameterestimatesofclassfluidity,females2559,multiplicativeconstant,lines 2 showconfidenceintervals
Somesurveyssuggestachangeinrelativesocial mobility,butoverallthereisnocleartrend
0.6 0.7
85
Moremobility
80 75 70 65 60 1973
0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Redandbluedots representdifferent typesofsurveysoare notcomparable

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Thetotalamountofintergenerationalmobilityexperiencedbywomenhasremainedconstant,butagainthisis 3 distortedbygeneralshiftsintheoccupationalstructurethatcausesomemobility Strippingoutthesechangessuggeststhatinsomeyearstherehasbeenastatisticalchangeintheimportanceoffamily 4 backgroundonattainingabetterjob,buttakingallsurveystogethersuggestsnocleartrend Usingalternativedatawithsmallersamples,anotherstudyfindsthatanalysingbirthcohortsbornfrom1900to1960, 5 therewasnochangeintheimportanceoffamilybackgroundongainingabetterjobforwomen

(1),(2),(3),(4)GoldthorpeandMills(2008)TrendsinIntergenerationalClassMobilityinModernBritain(5)HeathandPayne(1999)TwentiethCenturyTrends inSocialMobility
28
Theseresultsarenotnecessarilycontradictory,asincreased incomeinequalityinthe1980scouldexplainthedifference betweenmeasuresthatlookatincomeandoccupation

Itisunsurprisingthatmeasuringtheimportanceof familybackgroundongainingabetterpaidjoband gainingabetteroccupationyielddifferingresults Evidenceontheimportanceoffamilybackgroundon attainingawellpaidjobsuggeststhisincreased 1 betweenthe1958and1970cohorts .Butevidenceon theimportanceoffamilybackgroundongaininga 2 higheroccupationsuggeststhiscannotbeproved Ratherthanbeingcontradictory,becausethesetwo approachesusedifferenttypesofdata,thesefindings couldbothbevalid.Researchhassoughtto understandwhythismightbethecase,including lookingathowrisinginequalityaffectsthemeasures. Ithasalsobeensuggestedthatthemagnitudeofthe increaseintheimportanceofbackgroundtogaininga betterpaidjobcouldbeoverstated.Themeasurements offamilyincomeusedinthe1958cohortincludesmore transitoryincome,andthereforegivesaworse indicationofpeoplesincomeacrosstheirlifetimesthan 3 thefiguresforthe1970cohort Finallyithasbeensuggestedthatoccupationalclassis 4 amorestablemeasuretoconsider
Itispossiblethatincreasedincomeinequalityover theperiodresultedinlargerincreasesinwithinclass inequalitythanbetweenclassinequality

Income X X ClassB X X X X X 1970s ClassA X X X X 1980s X
Inequalitiesinincomewithinoccupational groupswidened,whichwasassociatedwith reducedincomemobility.Butmovement betweenoccupationalgroupsremained 5 unchanged
(1)BlandenandMachin(2008)UpandDowntheGenerationalIncomeLadderinBritain:PastChangesandFutureProspects(2)GoldthorpeandMills(2008) TrendsinIntergenerationalClassMobilitynModernBritain(3),(4)ErikssonandGoldthorpe(2008)IncomeandClassMobilityBetweenGenerationsinGreat Britain(5)Blandenetal.(2008)IntergenerationalPersistenceinIncomeandSocialClass:TheImpactofWithinGroupInequality
29
Trends International
Introduction
Inthepast,itappearsthattheproportionofpeoplethatgotbetter jobsthantheirparentswaslowerinBritainthaninothercountries AndfamilybackgroundwasabiggerdeterminantofwhetheraBritish personrealisedtheirpotentialthaninsome,butnotall,countries
Furtherdiscussion
30
Inthepast,itappearsthattheproportionofpeoplethatgot betterjobsthantheirparentswaslowerinBritainthaninother countries

TheproportionofBritishmengettingbetterjobsthan theirparents(absolutesocialmobility)wasaround theEuropeanaverageinthe1970s,1980sand1990s
Percentageofmalesmovingupintoadifferentoccupationalgroupineach 1 decade,relativetotheirparentsoccupationalgroup,bycountry
1970s 1980s 1990s
TheproportionofBritishwomengettingbetterjobs thantheirparents(absolutesocialmobility)was relativelylowinthe1970s,1980sand1990s

Percentageoffemalesmovingupintoadifferentoccupationalgroupineach 2 decade,relativetotheirparentsoccupationalgroup,bycountry
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Pol Fra Ire GB Ger Nor
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
1970s
1980s
1990s
Ita
Hun
Swe
Neth
GB
Ger
Fra
Swe
Pol
Neth
Ita
Nor
Hun
Itshouldbenotedthatthisstudyisbasedondifferentdatasourcesforeachcountry,eachofwhichusetheirown 3 differentoccupationalclassschemas,makingcrosscountrycomparisonsuncertain Inaddition,thechancesofindividualsgettingbetterjobsthanparentsislargelydeterminedbystructuraleconomic changes,namelyhighskillintensiveindustriesreplacinglowskillintensiveindustries.Sothesefiguresarealso dependentonthestageofdevelopmentofeachcountryineachperiodindividualsindevelopingcountriesarelikely 4 toexperiencehighermobilitythanthoseindevelopedcountries

(1),(2),(3),(4)Breen(2004)SocialMobilityinEurope
31
Andfamilybackgroundwasabiggerdeterminantofwhethera Britishpersonrealisedtheirpotentialthaninsome,butnotall, countries

Forthosebornaround1960,parentalincomewasa biggerdeterminantofanindividualsincomein Britain,thaninplacessuchasDenmarkandCanada
Intergenerationalincomeelasticities,bycountry,linesrepresent5%confidence 1 intervals
0.7 0.6
Butfathersoccupationwasasmallerdeterminantof BritishpeoplesoccupationinGreatBritaininthe 1970s,80sand90sthanincountrieslikeGermany

2 Parameterestimatesofclassfluidityineachdecade,bycountry
Moremobility
Moremobility
0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0

ar k
Theimportanceoffamilybackgroundto individualsincomeishighintheUK, i.e.relativeincomemobilityislow
Theimportanceoffamily backgroundtoindividuals occupationislowintheUK

1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
1970s
1980s
1990s
an ad a G er m an Sw y ed en Au st ra lia N or w ay Fr an ce
an d
SA
Br az il
I ta ly
Br it
en m
Fi nl
Internationalcomparisonsoftheimportanceoffamilybackgroundtobothincomeandoccupationalclassrelyingon 3,4 datafromthe1970s,1980sand1990sareveryuncertain Onestudysuggeststhatforchildrenborninthe1960s,theUKwasatthetopofalistofnineindustrialisedcountriesin 5 termsoftheimportanceoffamilybackgroundonindividualsincomes .Butrecentliteraturereviewsshowthatother 6 datasuggesttheUKisclosertothemiddleofthepack

(1),(3),(6)Blanden(2008)HowmuchwecanLearnfromInternationalComparisonsofSocialMobility(2)Breen(2004)SocialMobilityinEurope(4)Bjorklund andJantti(2008)IntergenerationalMobilityandtheRoleofFamilyBackground(5)Corak(2006)DoPoorChildrenBecomePoorAdults?LessonsfromaCross CountryComparisonofGenerationalEarningMobility
Ger
Ire
Fra
Hun
Neth
GB
Swe
Pol
32
Trends Lookingforward
Introduction

Itisnotpossibletoobservetheimpactthatfamilybackgroundwill haveonthefutureincomesoftodayschildren,butthiscanbe predicted Theimportanceoffamilybackgroundtochildrensearlycognitive developmentmayhaveremainedconstantrecently TheimportanceoffamilybackgroundtoindividualsGCSEattainment andthereforelikelyfutureincomehasdeclinedforrecent generationsof15yearolds Amongadults,themostrecentevidencefortheUKindicatesthatthe chanceofmovingintheearningsdistributionduringacareeris pickingupafteraperiodofdecline
Furtherdiscussion
33
Itisnotpossibletoobservetheimpactthatfamilybackground willhaveonthefutureincomesoftodayschildren,butthis canbepredicted

Itisnotpossibletoobservetheimpact thatfamilybackgroundwillhaveonthe futureincomesoftodayschildren Themajorityoftheanalysisonthe importanceoffamilybackgroundto peoplesincomescomparesindividuals thatgrewupinthe1970sand1980s andarenowinwork Thereislessanalysisoftheimportance offamilybackgroundtocurrentand recentgenerationsofchildren.Thisis becausetheyhavenotyetenteredthe labourmarket,soitisnotpossibleto comparetheirlabourmarketoutcomes withthoseoftheirparents Thismakesitdifficulttoassessthe impactofrecentgovernmentpolicies, suchasincreasedinvestmentin childcareandeducation,thatmight havehadapositiveimpactonsocial mobility
However,attemptshavebeenmadetopredictthis,bymeasuring theeducationalattainmentofchildrenfromdifferentfamily backgrounds

Lowincome background
Highincome background
Stage1:measuretheeducational attainmentofpupilsfromdifferent familybackgrounds

Attainmentof thosefromlow income backgrounds Attainmentof thosefromhigh income backgrounds
Stage2:usepastrelationships betweenattainmentandincometo predictthefutureincomeof childrenfromdifferentbackgrounds

Futureincomeof thosefromlow income backgrounds Futureincomeof thosefromhigh income backgrounds
Comparingthepredictedincomeof thosefromdifferentbackgrounds allowsmobilitytobepredicted
34
Theimportanceoffamilybackgroundtochildrensearly cognitivedevelopmentmayhaveremainedconstantrecently
Thereisnocomparabledataontheeducationalattainmentofchildrenbornbetween 1970and2000.Thisispartlybecausethoseinthelatestcohortsaretooyoungtohave yettakennationalcurriculumtests Butthereiscomparabledataforcertaingenerationswithinthisperiod.Forexample, theimportanceoffamilybackgroundtodegreeattainmentforthoseborninthe1970s and1980s,andtheimportanceoffamilybackgroundtothecognitiveskillsofyoung 1 childrenborninthe1980s,1990sand2000s Lookingatcomparabledataacrossthesecohortssuggeststhat,followingtheobserved increasebetweenthe1958and1970cohorts,theimportanceoffamilybackgroundto educationalattainmentandcognitivedevelopmenthassinceremainedconstant.For thegenerationbornin2000,thisreliesondatauptotheageoffive,soonlycaptures 2 changesinchildrensearlycognitivedevelopment Butitshouldbenotedthatpredictingfutureincomeandthussocialmobilityforthese lattergenerationsisuncertain.Inaddition,thesechildrendidnotbenefitfrommuchof therecentincreaseinearlyyearsinvestmentforexampleonly255Childrens 3 Centreshadopenedin2005,but2914hadbeenbuiltby2008
(1),(2),(3)BlandenandMachin(2008)UpandDowntheGenerationalIncomeLadderinBritain:PastChangesandFutureProspects
35
TheimportanceoffamilybackgroundtoindividualsGCSE attainmentandthereforelikelyfutureincomehasdeclinedfor recentgenerationsof15yearolds

TheimportanceoffamilybackgroundtoGCSE attainmentappearstohavedeclinedforchildrenthat recentlysatthem*
RelationshipbetweenfamilyincomeandGCSEattainment,linesshowstandard 1 errors
1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1955
Familybackgroundhadlessofan impactonGCSEresultsforthose bornin1990thanthosebornin1970
DataareavailableontheGCSEattainmentof agroupofchildrenbornin1990/91whotook theirexamsin2006 Thesesuggestastatisticallysignificant declineintheimportanceoffamily backgroundoneducationalattainment 2 comparedtochildrenbornin1970 Thesefindings,therefore,suggestthatfamily backgroundwillhavelessofanimpactonthe incomeofthesechildrenwhentheyreach adulthood,thanthosebornin1970theyare 3 likelytoexperiencehighersocialmobility
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
*Thisstudyalsoincludesdataonchildrenborninthe1980s,butthesamplesaretoosmalltorevealanystatisticallysignificantchangesintherelationship betweenfamilybackgroundandattainment(1),(2),(3)GreggandMacmillan(2008)IntergenerationalMobilityandEducationintheNextGeneration,mimeo
36
Amongadults,themostrecentevidencefortheUKindicates thatthechanceofmovingintheearningsdistributionduringa careerispickingupafteraperiodofdecline

Earningsmobilityduringcareersfellinthe1980sand 1990s,buthasrisenslightlysince2000
Reductionininequalityamongmaleemployeesduetoearningsmobilityover 1 differentrollingtimeperiods
Ifevidencefromthosewithspellsoutofworkis included,thefallinmobilityandthepickupareboth sharper

Reductionininequalityamongmaleemployeesduetoearningsmobilityover 2 differentrollingtimeperiods,includingspellsoutofwork
2yearmobility 4yearmobility 8yearmobility
14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1979
2yearmobility
4yearmobility
8yearmobility
14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2%
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
0% 1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
Intragenerationalearningsmobilitymeasuredbytheextenttowhichindividualsearningsmobilityoveratimeperiod reducesmeasuresofinequalitywithinthattimeperiodfellinthe1980sand1990s,buthasrisenagainsincearound 3 2000 4 Thisrecentpickupmaybeduetoincreasedshortrangemobilityatthelowerendoftheearningsdistribution However,theevidencealsosuggeststhereisverylittledownwardmobilityforthehighestearners:thoseinthetop 5 earningsdecilearelesslikelythananyothertodropdownoneortwodecilesovertime 6 Overall,thereislessintragenerationalearningsmobilityandlessvariationovertimeinmobilityforwomen

(1),(2),(3),(4),(5),(6)DickensandMcKnight(2008)ThechangingPatternofEarnings:Employees,MigrantsandLowpaidfamilies
37
Drivers
Introduction
Furtherdiscussion
38
Toraisesocialmobility,itisnecessarybothtotakeadvantage ofemergingjobopportunitiesintheglobaleconomyandto raisepeoplescapabilities

Raisingsocialmobility (betterjobsandfairerchances) Benefitingfromglobal jobopportunities Buildingeveryones capability
Drivers
1. PositioningtheUKtobenefit fromdevelopmentsinnew technology
3. Supportingpeople throughtheirlives
2. PositioningtheUKtobenefit fromchangesindemandfor goodsandservices
4. Supportingfamiliesand communitiesinwhich peoplecandevelop
Thisrelatestothedemandforhumancapital
Thisrelatestothesupplyforhumancapital
39
Drivers Jobopportunities
Introduction
Introduction
3.Driversofsocialmobility a.Driversshapingemergingjobopportunities b.Buildingpeoplescapabilities
Increasingfuturesocialmobilitywillinvolvepositioningthe UKtobenefitfrommoreandbetterjobopportunitiesinthe globaleconomy Althoughtheglobaleconomyisexperiencingaslowdown,a continuedfocusonthetrendsthatwilldrivethecreationof betterjobsinthefuturewillbecrucialforlongtermsuccess ThesejobopportunitiesintheUKwillbedrivenby technologicaladvancesandchangesindemandforgoods andservices
Furtherdiscussion
40
IncreasingfuturesocialmobilitywillinvolvepositioningtheUK tobenefitfrommoreandbetterjobopportunitiesintheglobal economy

Thenumberofpotentialhighendjob opportunitiesintheUKhavebeeninpart constrainedbythedomesticeconomy
butthelikelyacceleratedinterconnectednessandfuture growthoftheglobaleconomycouldenableincreased opportunitiesforUKcitizenstomoveupintohighendjobs

Globaljobopportunities
UKjob opportunities
Highend Middle
Highend
Lowend
Middle The world economy will have doubled in size 1 by 2030. And the current wave of globalisation, fuelled by global technological advances, trade liberalisation and the rise of 2 emerging economies will enable more businessestocompeteonaglobalscale.This integration of national markets into a global marketcreatesmoreopportunitiesatthehigher endfortheUKwithintheglobaleconomy
While more and better jobs were created in th the UK throughout the 20 century, domestic markets and structures were of more importance to job progression than today. Therewerefewerhigherendjobopportunities within the global economy owing to: fewer globally traded goods and services, and a smaller world market than today (fewer participants and less wealth) with whom to tradewith
Lowend
(1)WorldBank(2007)GlobalEconomicProspects(2)BERR(2008)FiveDynamicsofChangeinGlobalManufacturing
41
Althoughtheglobaleconomyisexperiencingaslowdown,a continuedfocusonthetrendsthatwilldrivethecreationof betterjobsinthefuturewillbecrucialforlongtermsuccess
Economiesworldwidearecurrentlyslowingdown However,longtermglobaltrendsanddriverspointtofuture 1 Growthrate,percent,IMF opportunitieswhichcouldcreatemoreandbetterjobs

2 Futureglobaldriversofchange
World
5 4
Economic
Growth of the global economy and interconnection: new markets, increased trade andinvestmentwithrapidlygrowingcountries Growing global population and middle class: new, larger markets with rising world incomes drivingdemandformorepersonalisedproducts Increasing effects of climate change: potential to develop carbon markets, alternative energy technologyandenvironmentalgoods/services Communication advances making world more connected:potentialfornewglobalnetworksto increaseinteractionandinformationsharing
Demographic
3 2 1
Environmental
EU Advanced economies
0 1990 1 1995 2000 2005
Technological
Theglobaleconomyiscurrentlyexperiencingaslowdownfollowinguncertaintyinfinancialmarkets,ongoing correctionsinhousingmarketsinanumberofadvancedeconomies,andsurgesincommodityprices.TheIMF 3 havenowmarkeddown2009growthprojectionsfortheglobaleconomyby3percentagepoints However,overthelongerterm,theincreasingintegrationoftheglobaleconomy,particularlythroughincreased 4 trade andtechnologyadvances,islikelytoprovidealargerworldmarkettotradewith,creatingnew 5 opportunitiesformoreandbetterUKjobs

(1)InternationalMonetaryFund(2008)databank(2),(5)StrategyUnit,CabinetOffice(2008)RealisingBritainspotential:futurestrategicchallengesforBritain(3)IMF 42 (2008)WorldEconomicOutlook(4)IMF(2000)Globalisation:ThreatorOpportunity?IMFissuesBrief00/01
ThesejobopportunitiesintheUKwillbedrivenbytechnological advancesandchangesindemandforgoodsandservices
Whatcouldenablemoreandbetterjobopportunities? Advancesintechnology Changesindemandfor goodsandservices
1. Continuingtechnological innovationandunbundling 2. Shifttoalowcarbon economy
3. Growthinemerging economies 4. Increaseddemandfor higherqualityservices
Eachsectionwillnowbeconsideredinturn
43
Introduction
1.Continuingtechnologicalinnovationandunbundling Growthinthedemandforhighskilledlabourhasbeendriven bytechnologicaladvancesinrecentyears
Technologicaladvanceswillenablefurtherrelocationof productionactivities,unbundlingtheproductionchainto variousplacesaroundtheworld Businessesinvolvedingloballytradedhighvalueactivities tendtobemorecompetitivewhentheyclustertogether Thisunbundlingoftheproductionchaincouldtransfermore andbetterjobopportunitiestotheUK
Furtherdiscussion
44
Growthinthedemandforhighskilledlabourhasbeendrivenby technologicaladvancesinrecentyears
Drivers Jobopportunities Technology&trade
Technologicallyadvancedcountrieshaveseena substantialincreaseinskilledlabour,relativeto unskilled

1 Indexofskilledtounskilledemploymentinadvancedeconomies
Thistrendislikelytocontinueasglobalinvestment inskillbiasedtechnologyhasbeenincreasing rapidly

Informationandcommunicationstechnologycapitalasapercentoftotal 3 capital
170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100
Thefundamentalreasonforlongrun growthinthedemandforskillshas 2 beenskillbiasedtechnicalchange

AdvancedEurope
US
6 5 4 3
US
Japan
2 1
EU Japan
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Skillbiasedtechnicalchangeisashiftinproductiontechnologythathasfavouredskilledoverunskilledlabourby increasingitsrelativeproductivityand,therefore,itsrelativedemand.Lowskilledroutinetasksbecameautomated 4 anddemandshiftedawayfromlowskilledtowardsskilledlabourthatcouldutilisemoreproductivetechnology Theimportanceofglobaltrade(inparticulartheabilitytolocatemoreproductionprocessesanywhereintheworld) indrivingfuturedemandforUKskilledlabourmayincreaseasdomesticeconomiescontinuetointegrateintoa 5 globaleconomy

(1)IMF(2007)WorldEconomicoutlook(2)MachinandVanReenan(2007)Changesinwageinequality(3)IMF(2007)(4)Brakmanet.al(2006)Nationsandfirms intheglobaleconomy(5)Krugman(2007)TradeandInequalityrevisited
45
Technologicaladvanceswillenablefurtherrelocationof productionactivities,unbundlingtheproductionchainto variousplacesaroundtheworld

Advancesintechnologyaredrivingdowncostsof globaltradeandproductionofgoodsandservices
Costofglobaltransportationandcommunications,costindex, 1 1930=100
100
Thesedevelopmentsareenablingfirmsproduction tobeincreasinglygloballydispersed
Illustrativegloballyfragmentedvaluechainmodel
75
Satellite charges
50
Airtransport
Inthe1980sand90s theloweringof bandwidthand telecommunications costsmademany serviceslesssensitive totheirlocation
R&D Global HQ
Business services Assembly
25
3minute transatlantic phonecall
Globalresourcingentailsfirms choosingthebestlocationto performprocessesthatcouldbe 2 locatedanywhere

1970 1980 1990 2000
ITservices
0 1930
1940
1950
1960
AscenariohasbeenidentifiedbyKrugmanwherebymorelowskillintensivefunctionscouldincreasinglybe 3 locatedinChinaandhighskillintensivefunctionslocatedinalreadytechnologicallyadvancedcountries Ascompanieslearnhowtomanagegloballydispersedprocesses,locationwillmatterless.Alreadymanybusiness 4 processescanbeperformedremotelyfromtheirsourcemarkets Estimatesoftheemerginggloballabourmarketineightrepresentativeservicesectorsin2008suggests160mjobs 5 couldbecarriedoutremotely(about11%oftheprojected1.46bnservicejobsworldwide)

(1)Bussee(2003)(2),(5)MGi(2005)TheEmergingGlobalLabourMarket(3),(4)Krugman(2007)TradeandInequalityrevisited
46
Businessesinvolvedingloballytradedhighvalueactivitiestend tobemorecompetitivewhentheyclustertogether
Recentevidenceshowsalinkbetweenregional clusterstrengthandpercapitaincome
RegionallevelGDPperCapita(Euros,PPPadjusted)bypercentof employeesworkinginacluster(whereregionalemploymentinagivensector isfourtimesthenationalaverage)
70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
TheUKiswellpositionedtobenefit,asitremainsone ofthemostattractivelocationsintheglobaleconomy
1 GlobalCompetitivenessindexscorefortheUK,annualindexscore(outof7)
Japan
Switzerland
Singapore
HKSAR
Sweden
Finland
Canada
Korea,Rep.
Denmark
Austria
USA
UK
Germany
Asbusinessesbecomemoregloballymobiletheyincreasinglychoosetoagglomeratewithsimilarfirmsasthishastendedtoenhance 3 performance.Equally,nationsandregionscompeteonbecomingthemostproductivelocationsforbusiness Stimulationofclustershasbecomeanimportantfocusinmanycountriescompetingtobecomethemostproductivelocationsfor 4 business. Doublingofthesizeacluster(generallymeasuredasemploymentofagivensectorinagivenregion)hasbeentoshown 5 toleadtoaproductivitygainofbetween38percent AworldclasstelecommunicationsinfrastructurewillbevitalinensuringUKclustersinknowledgebasedindustriesremainglobally competitivetheUKisoneofthemostknowledgeintensiveeconomiesintheworld,withknowledgebasedindustriesrepresenting 6 41%ofgrossvalueadded

(1)WorldEconomicForum(2004/05)GlobalCompetitivenessReport(2)Porter(2008)Clusters,innovation,andcompetitiveness:Newfindingsandimplicationsforpolicy datafromtheEuropeanClusterobservatory(3)RosenthalandStrange(2004)Evidenceonthenatureandsourcesofagglomerationeconomies(4)Forfas(2004)Innovation Networks(5)RosenthalandStrange(2004)(6)ESRC(2008)Societytoday:TheKnowledgeeconomy
Netherlands
Norway
European regionswith employees concentratedin specific sectors,on average,have higherGDPper capita
TheUKcurrently th ranks12 (outof 134)onWEF global competitiveness measures
47
Thisunbundlingoftheproductionchaincouldtransfermore andbetterjobopportunitiestotheUK
HighskilledsectorsintheUKbenefitfromfragmentation andspecialisationofglobalvaluechains
ShareofallUKmanufacturingearningsacrossvaluechain2006(per 1 centpointchangesharefrom20016showninbrackets)
Production,trades
R&D:the pharmaceutical 3 industry

Thepharmaceuticalindustryisthebiggest investorinR&DintheUK.Itaccountsfor around25%oftotalinvestmentbybusiness, valuedat3.3bnin2005
25.5%
Production, professional
(4.8%)
5.3%
(+0.6%)
21.1%
(+2.4%)
R&D, Design trades
UKheadquarteredcompanies GlaxoSmithKineandAstraZenecahaveboth achievedsignificantglobalsuccess
Logisticsand Distribution
5.9%
(+0.5%)
TheCEBRestimates thatbusinessservice employmentwillaccount for17.6%oftotalUK 2 employmentin2010
Businessservices:advertising 20.1%
(+1.8%)
Support Services, Professional
UKadvertisingindustryisthefourthlargestinthe world.International,Londonbredagencies includeSaatchiandSaatchi,BBH,M&CSaatchi, WCRSandAMV LondonishometotheworldslargestPR agenciesin2006,sevenofthetoptenagencies worldwidehadtheircorporateheadquartersin London,raisingcombinedrevenuesinexcessof $3.5billion
13.2%
Salesand Marketing
7.0%
(0.8%)
(+0.2%)
Support Services, trade
Note:Thisisarepresentationofjustonesector.Valuechainsvaryconsiderablybetweensectors (1),(2)BERR(2008)UKManufacturingStrategy,BERRAnalysisofLFSmicrodata,ONS(3)BERR(2008)ThePharmaceuticalSectorintheUK
48
Introduction
3.Driversofsocialmobility a.Benefitingfromglobaljobopportunities b.Buildingpeoplescapabilities
2.Shifttoalowcarboneconomy Meetingcarbonemissionstargetswhilstmaintaining economicgrowthwillrequirenewenvironmental technologies TheUKiswellplacedtoharnessincreasingopportunities formoreandbetterjobsinthegrowingglobalmarketfor environmentaltechnologies
Furtherdiscussion
49
Meetingcarbonemissionstargetswhilstmaintainingeconomic growthrequiresnewenvironmentaltechnologies
Drivers Jobopportunities Lowcarbon
Significantreductionsincarbonemissionswillbe neededintheUKtomeetits2050target
1 ProjectedCO emissionsbysource(milliontonnes) 2
andthereisnewinvestmentbringingforwardthe developmentofnewlowcarbontechnologies
2 UKEnvironmentalTransformationFund(ETF)programmes2008/092010/11
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Gapto 2050 target
Agriculture Domestic(heating) Transport Business
2050 target
1990 2004 2010 2015 2020
Energysupply
Offshorewindcapitalgrantsprogramme Innovationprogramme(includingresearch accelerations,technologyacceleratorsand incubators) TheUKfocusedelement Lowcarbontechnologyenterprises oftheEnvironmental Lowcarbontechnologybusinesses TransformationFund aimstobringforwardthe Energyefficiencyloanschemes developmentofnewlow Bioenergycapitalgrants carbonenergyand Lowcarbonbuildingsprogrammes energyefficiency 3 technologiesintheUK
4 TheEUiscommittedtoensuringthat20%ofitsenergyconsumptionismetbyrenewables Overthenext25yearstheUKwillneedtoreplaceallofitsnuclearenergygeneratingplants,andexpandtheuseof 5 renewableenergy. ThelargecombustionplantdirectiveintheUKwillmeananumberofcoalplantsmustcloseby2015 6 15%oftotalelectricityproduction (thiscouldincreaseto25%iftheEUintegratedemissionsdirectiveisadopted) Thistransitiontoalowcarbon,resourceefficienteconomywillseetheemergenceofnewtechnologiesandinnovations 7 stimulatingnew,productsandservicescreatingnewindustriesandjobopportunities. UNEPpredictsenormouspotential forgreenjobsfrom$1,300bnperyearto$2,700bnby2020.Areliableearlyindicatorofthisshiftisthesurgeintheflow ofventurecapitalintocleantechnologies.IntheUnitedStatesthiscurrentlyconstitutesthethirdlargestsectorafter 8 informationandbiotechnology
(1)DEFRAanalysis(2007)(2),(3)BERR,DEFRA,DIUS(2008)UKEnvironmentalTransformationFund:strategy(4)EUcouncil(2007)Climatechangeandenergyagreement(5),(6)BERR(2007) EnergyReview(7)HMT(2006)Sternreviewontheeconomicsofclimatechange(8)UNEPGreenJobs:towardsdecentworkinasustainable,lowcarbonworld
50
TheUKiswellplacedtoharnessincreasingopportunitiesfor moreandbetterjobsinthegrowingglobalmarketfor environmentaltechnologies

Therewillneedtobesignificantglobalinvestmentin environmentaltechnologies
Stabalisationwedgesmodelillustratingtheneedforenergytechnologiesandcarbon 1 capturedevelopmentstocutglobalcarbonemissions Stabilisationtriangle: Keepingemissionsflatfor 16 50yearsrequirestrimming projectedcarbonoutputby t h a t p roughly7bntonsperyear en rr Cu by2054.Tokeeppacewith globalenergyneedsatthe 8 s sametime,energy on i Flatpath iss technologiesthatemitlittle lem rica tonocarbon,plusthe ist o H capacityforcarbonstorage 2 willbeindemand
Drivers Jobopportunities Lowcarbon
TheUKeconomyalreadyexportsahostof environmentaltechnologiesintotheglobaleconomy
UKbalanceoftradeforselectportfolioofenvironmentalgoodsandservices 3 technologies,2004 Asglobalmarketsincreasinglydemand environmentalgoodsandservices,theearly 500 expansionofthissectorintheUKmeansthatUK 4 firmsarewellplacedtocompeteinthesector 400
Globaltonsofcarbon emittedperyear(bn)
300
Imports
200 100 0
Airpollution Polution control Filtration/ separation Monitoring equipment Photovoltiacs
Exports Balance
0 1950
100 200 300
2000
2050
2100
Theenvironmentalmarketplaceislarge,globalandgrowingrapidly.IntheUK,theenvironmentalgoodsand servicessectorisestimatedtohaveaturnoverof25billionandtoemploy400,000people.TheCityofLondon, 5 forexample,hasalreadybecomeaglobalhubforcarbontrading TheCommissiononEnvironmentalMarketsandEconomicPerformancehasestimatedthattheoveralladded valueinthelowcarbonenergyindustrycouldbeatleast$3trillionperyearworldwideby2050andthatitcould employmorethan25millionpeople.IfBritainmaintainsitsshareofthisgrowth,therecouldincreasetoovera 6 millionpeopleemployedinourenvironmentalindustrieswithinthenexttwodecades

(1)Basedon:PacalaandSocolow(2004)StabilizationWedges(2)Princetoncarbonmitigationinitiative(2008)Brief:Buildingthestabilisationtriangle (3),(4),(5),(6)Defra,DIUS,BERR(2007)CommissiononEnvironmentalMarketsandEconomicPerformance
51
Introduction
3.Growthinemergingeconomies
Fallingtradebarriershaveacceleratedgrowthinmany emergingeconomies Thisincreasingwealthinemergingeconomies,suchas China,willleadtoincreaseddemandforhighskill producedgoodsandservicesintheglobaleconomy TheUKiswellplacedtoprovideashareofthis, increasingdemandforhighskilllabour
Furtherdiscussion
52
Fallingtradebarriershaveacceleratedgrowthinmanyemerging economies
Drivers Jobopportunities Emergingeconomies
Worldtradeisbecomingmoreinterconnected, increasingtheincomeandwealthofemerging economies

1 Worldmerchandiseexports(US$billions)
Disposableincomesinemergingeconomies,such asChina,couldrisesignificantly
2 AggregaterealdisposableincomeforurbanChinese,$bnatcurrentrates
12,000
9,000
6,000
3,000
0 1973 1983 1993 2003 2006
Internationalflowsof goodsandservices havegrown,and emergingeconomies havebecome significantplayersin theworldeconomy ChinaandIndia togetherhavemore thantripledtheir shareofglobal outputoverthepast 25years
Actualandestimates
4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1995 2005
Projections
UrbanChinas aggregate disposable incomecouldbe overtwotimes thatofGermany by2025
2015
2025
AnurbanisingChinacouldbecomethethirdlargestconsumermarketintheworld.CurrenttrendsshowChinas urbanpopulationexpandingfrom572min2005to926min2025.TheurbanconsumptionshareofGDPwillrisefrom 3 25%in2005to33%in2025 AggregateconsumerspendinginIndiacouldmorethanquadrupleincomingyears,reaching70trillionrupeesby th 2025,makingittheworlds5 largestconsumermarket.Higherprivateincomesand,toalesserextent,population 4 growthwillfurtheraffectthisriseinconsumption

Sources:(1)WTO(2007)InternationalTradeStatistics(2)Adaptedfrom:MGIChinaconsumerdemandmodel,v.2.0(3)McKinseyGlobalInstitute(2008)PreparingforChinasurbanbillionNB:real renminibi,baseyear2000(4)McKinseyGlobalInstitute(2008)TrackingthegrowthofIndiasmiddleclass
53
Theincreaseintheincomeandwealthofemergingeconomies, suchasChina,willleadtoincreaseddemandforhighskill producedgoodsandservicesintheglobaleconomy

Ifmiddleandaffluentclassesdriveasharprisein consumptionexpenditureinemergingeconomies
Chineseurbanconsumptionexpenditurebyincomeclass,in2000constant 1 Rembini(bn) Incomein 19,201 Rembini(k) 20,000 2,371 Global<200k
2,079 Affluent100200k
thentheglobaldemandforhighskillgoodswillrise
Projectedrelativecompoundedannualgrowthrateforselectedfastgrowingproduct 2 categoriesinChina,200525(%)
Healthcare services
12
10,000
9,318
790 4,877 2,100 979 12,235 Upperaspirants 40100k
Recreation services
10
3,704
1,672 1,371
Loweraspirants 1,678 2540k Poor.25k 838
Education
Educationwillbe oneofthefasted growingconsumer categories, includingspendon tuitionfees,driven byaspirants wantingaglobally competitive education
15.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
2005
2015
2025
TheWorldBankforecaststhatby2030morethanabillionpeopleindevelopingcountrieswillbelongtotheglobal 3 middleclassgroupandwillparticipateasactiveconsumersofgoodsandservicesintheglobalmarketplace Theshifttoconsumptionofnonessentialitemsislikelytotakeplaceatloweraverageincomelevelsthanseen previouslyinothercountries.DiscretionaryspendingasapercentoftotalprivateincomeinIndiaisexpectedto risefrom52%to70%by2025.SouthKoreawentthroughasimilartransformationinthe1980s,whenitsper 4 capitaincomeswereabouttwicethoseofIndiatoday
Sources:(1)McKinseyGlobalInstitute(2008)PreparingforChinasurbanbillion(2)Adaptedfrom:MGIChinaconsumerdemandmodel,v.2.0(3)WorldBank(2007)Globaleconomicprospects(4) McKinseyGlobalInstitute(2008)TrackingthegrowthofIndiasmiddleclass
54
TheUKiswellplacedtocaptureashareofthis,increasing demandforhighskilledlabour
TheUKcouldbecomeaworldleadingexporterof worldclasseducation
TheUniversityof 1 NottinghamNingbo,China
sotoocouldourcreativeindustries,whichare alreadyexpandingintoemergingeconomies
2 BBHadvertisingagency
TheNingbocampusisthefirstSinoforeignuniversityin ChinaandisrunbytheUniversityofNottingham Ithasnearly4,000studentsandmorethan250staff.All coursesinNingboareconductedinEnglishwiththesame teachingandevaluationstandardsasatNottingham AllstudentsinNingbonowhavetheopportunitytostudyin theUK
BBHGlobalHeadquartersisbasedinLondonandhasoffices inNewYork,Shangai,Singapore,SaoPauloandToyko BBHhastotalglobalbillingsof$US1.5bnandemploysnearly 1000staff HavingpreviouslyrunsomecampaignsinIndiafromofficesin othercountries,BBHhasnowannouncedtheopeningan officebasedinMumbai,toopeninNovember08
ChinahasbeenthefastestgrowingexportmarketfortheUKsince2002.BetweenJanuaryandMay2008,theUK 3 exportedmorethan2bnofgoodsandservicestoChina,anincreaseof44%onthesameperiodin2007. IndiaistheUKssecondlargestexportmarketinthedevelopingworldandisgrowingrapidly.In2004theUK 4 exported3.05bnofgoodsandservicestoIndia.Thisgrewto3.9bnin2005 InadditiontoChinaandIndia,tradewiththeEasternEuropeancountriesjoiningtheEUhasalsogrownrapidlyin recentyearstheshareofUKexportsgoingtothenewmemberstates,knownastheaccession10increased 5 fromlessthan1percentin1992to1percentin1999,andreached2percentby2005

55
Sources:(1)www.nottingham.edu.cn(2)www.bartleboglehegarty.com(3)UKTi(2008)ChinaUKtradebreaksthrough2bn(4)UKTI(2008)(5)HMT(2007)Budget2007
Introduction
4.IncreasedderiveddemandforhighskilljobsintheUK Changinglifestylesandrisingexpectationsarelikelyto increasedomesticdemandforhighqualityprofessionaland personalisedgoodsandservices Meetinganincreaseddemandforpersonalisedserviceswill requireagreateruseofhigherskilledlabour
Furtherdiscussion
56
Changinglifestylesandrisingexpectationsarelikelytoincrease domesticdemandforhighqualityprofessionalandpersonalised goodsandservices

Professional,highqualityandpersonalised *** servicesareimportanttothepublic
Thinkingaboutpublicservices(eg.NHS,schools,police,social work),rankthethreemostimportantareasthegovernment xxx 1 shouldfocuson?,(percentbelievingmostimportant)
12 22 33 56 58 67 0 20 40 60
Access to independent advice Services personalised to my specific needs Friendly, motivated, customer services staff Providing a choice of services Short waiting lists Efficient and professional services
Drivers Jobopportunities Personalisation
Demandforhighqualitysupportfromfamilieswillincrease aslifestylescontinuetochangeandtimeismorepressured
2 Workingage(currentdefinition)activityrates,percent19712020
Asfemalelabourmarketparticipationincreases, demandforhighqualitycarewillincrease
90 82 74 66
Estimated Men Total
Women
58 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 2013 2019
80
Expectationsforpersonalisedservicesareincreasingwiththeinternetprovidingaccesstofarmoreconsumer informationandfuellingconsumerdemandformoretailoredproducts.Demandintheservicesectorforemployees 3 withstronginterpersonalskillsisincreasing Theriseinprosperityoverthepasttenyearshasalsoincreaseddemandforhigherqualityandmoreexperiential servicesrangingfromleisure(eg.thegrowthofhigherendhotelsandrestaurants)tohealth(eg.growthinfitness 4 andwellbeingcentres) ThenumberofolderadultsintheUKwillrisesignificantlyoverthenexttwentyyearsandthis,coupledwith 5 increasingnumbersofwomenjoiningtheworkforce ,couldraisedemandformorepersonalcarerswithstrong 6 interpersonalskillstoprovidetailoredinterventionsandsupportfortheelderly
Sources:(1)HenleyCentre(2007)HeadlightVisionPlanningforConsumerChange)UKManufacturingstrategy(2)ONS(2006)LabourMarketTrends:ProjectionsoftheUKLabourforce,2006to 2020(3)StrategyUnit,CabinetOffice(2008)FutureStrategicchallenges(4)ONS(2007)Socialtrends(5)ONS(2007)(6)StrategyUnit,CabinetOffice(2008)
57
Meetinganincreaseddemandforpersonalisedserviceswill requireagreateruseofhigherskilledlabour
Drivers Jobopportunities Personalisation
Traditionallylowskilledsectorswillneedtoupskill theirworkforcetomeetconsumerexpectations
Percentofhospitality,leisure,travelandtourismsectorwithno 1 qualifications Thissectoremploys nearly2mpeoplebutis Hotel 16 currentlytheleast managers productiveintheUK Managersof accordingtoitsown licensed 14 sectorskillscouncil.It premises alsolagsbehind international Chefs 14 competitorslabour productivityisnearly doubleinFranceanda 0 5 10 15 20 2 thirdhigherintheUS
Lowskilledoccupationsarelikelytorequiremore skilledlabourtosatisfynewdemands
Child Carer
Upskillfromsupervisoryroletoamore personalisedone,buildingchilds emotionalwellbeingandcognitiveskills Learnnewskillstoconductdoctoralroles andproceduresinprimarycare,avoiding patienthavingahospitaladmission Upskillfrombasicwaitertoaspecialistin food/wineandtrainedinprofessional highqualitycustomerservice
Nurses
Catering staff
Evidencesuggestsdemandforskilledlabourisincreasinginanumberoftraditionallylowskilledsectors.The nationalemployersskillssurveyidentifiedparticulardifficultiesintheconstruction,buildingandengineering 3 industries,hospitalityandtourismservices,andsocialcareemployers ArecentreportshowedthatUKhotelierswillneedtoimprovequalityofserviceinordertocompeteagainstglobal brands.Forexample,itfoundthatchangessuchasthegrowinguseofonlinebookinghasresultedinstrong 4 demandforthosewiththerequiredskillstodevelopandmaintainthesoftware
st Sources:(1)People1st(2007)Raisingthebar(2)People1 (2008)Thehospitality,leisure,travelandtourismsectorkeyfactsandfigures(3)LearningandSkillsCouncil(2006)NationalEmployers SkillsSurvey2005(4)LSC(2007)SkillsinEngland2007volume3:sectoralevidence
58
Introduction
Policyimplications
a.Driversshapingemergingjobopportunities b.Buildingpeoplescapabilities
ThesetrendspresentanopportunityfortheUKtoposition itselftocreatemoreandbetterjobs
Furtherdiscussion
59
ThesetrendspresentanopportunityfortheUKtopositionitself tocreatemoreandbetterjobs
Drivers Jobopportunities Implications
HowdoestheUK Whatisthepotential maximisejob roleofGovernment? opportunities?

1.Ensuringahighly skilledandcapable workforce
Possibleareasofgovernmentfocustoenablethe creationofmoreandbetterjobopportunitiesintheUK
Ensureworkersarebetterable Buildingworkforcecapabilitiesandskilllevelstoenablebusinessesto torespondtoincreased pursuehigherqualityproductstrategies demandforhigherskilled EnsuringtheUKisstrategicallydevelopingtheskillsneededina labour globaleconomy(e.g.ensuringtheUKhastheskilledengineersto upgradeUKinfrastructure) EnablefirmsandtheUK economytorespondmore rapidlyandeffectivelyto changingdemandsand technologicaladvances Ensuringaninstitutionalframework,alignedtotheglobaleconomy, whichenablesUKbusinesstorespondrapidlytomarketsignals Enablingfirmsrapidlytoshifttheirproductstrategiestowardshigh skillintensiveproducts,includingbuildingskillsofdecisionmakers withinfirms Ensuringaworldclassinfrastructurewhichenablesfirmsand individualstoplugintotheglobaleconomyandnewmarkets Developingabetterunderstandingofsuccessfulsectorsacrossthe economy,howtheyhaveachievedsuccess,andthebarriersto furthergrowth Developinganimprovedunderstandingoftheeconomicfactors supportingthecomparativeadvantageofgloballysuccessfulsectors, therolegovernmentmayhaveplayed,andhowthesefactorsmay varybysector
2.Ensuringa responsiveand flexibleeconomy
3.Enabling successfulglobal sectorstogrowin theUK
Understandwhatsuccessful UKsectorsintheglobal economyarelikelytobeand workinpartnershipwiththose sectorstobuildonour strength
60
Drivers
Introduction
Introduction
Thissectionexaminesthedriversofbuildingpeoples capabilitiesthroughfourkeylifestages,aswellashow peoplecanbesupportedtodevelopwithinfamilies andcommunities Foreachlifestage,thepaperwillexaminefourkey questionsinturn
Furtherdiscussion
61
Thissectionexaminesthedriversofbuildingpeoples capabilitiesthroughfourlifestages,aswellashowpeoplecan besupportedbytheirfamiliesandcommunities
Drivers Capability
Supportingpeople throughouttheirlives
Early years Schooling Entering work Adulthood
62
Foreachlifestage,thepaperwillexaminefourkeyquestionsin turn
Drivers Capability
Question
Summaryofevidence
Earlyyears Schooling
Successinschoolisthemost importantfactor,uptoage16, forexplainingfuturemobility. Butarelativelyhighproportion ofUKchildrendidnotattain schoolqualifications Thosewholeaveschoolwith fewqualificationsare overwhelminglyfrom particularsocialbackgrounds
Transitiontowork
Gainingpost16qualificationsis crucialinprovidingpeoplewiththe capabilitiesandskillsneededto moveupintothebestjobs
Adulthood
Themajorityoftheworkforceofthe nextdecadearealreadyagedover 25.Increasingtheirsocialmobility requiresimprovingtheir opportunitiestoprogressinthe workplace Differencesinpeoplesearlierlife chancesplayout,andare compounded,oncetheyenterthe workplace
1.Importance: whyisthislife stagekeyto building capabilities? 2.Gaps:arethere barriersto everyonehaving fairchances? 3.Progress:what foundationsarein placeforbuilding capabilities? 4.Potential: Wheremight furtherprogress bemadein buildingpeoples capabilities?
Childrensearlyyears environmenthasa profoundimpactupon theirsubsequentlives
Socialbackground influenceschildrens developmentduringtheir criticalfirstyears
Thosewhochoosevocationalroutes intoworktendtobefrom disadvantagedsocialbackgrounds, whilebeingNEET(notin employment,educationortraining) affectsfuturelifechances Youngpeoplearenowreceiving moresupporttostudyforalltypesof qualifications,andstepshavebeen takentoreducethenumberof NEETs Ensuringamorejoinedupsystemto supportyoungpeoplespathways andtransitionscouldenablemore people,especiallyfromlower socioeconomicgroups,tofulfiltheir potential
Governmenthas respondedwithagreater rangeofearlyyears servicesandimproved supportforparents However,evidence suggestsmorecouldbe donetogivechildrenthe beststartinlife
Overalleducationalattainment hasimprovedrecentlyandis improvingatafasterratefor previouslylowerperforming groups Evidencesuggeststeachers haveasignificantimpacton futurepotential,butgood teachersarelesslikelytobe inschoolsfacingchallenging circumstances
Progresshasbeenmadein enablingpeopletoupdateand increasetheirskilllevels,aswell asensuringtherighttosecondand thirdchancesforcareer progression Ensuringallindividualshavethe opportunitycontinuallytolearnnew skillsandprogressintheworkforce iscrucialtoremovingbarriersto realisingfullpotential
63
Drivers Capability Earlyyears
Introduction
1.Earlyyears Childrensearlyyearsenvironmenthasaprofound impactupontheirsubsequentlives Socialbackgroundinfluenceschildrensdevelopment duringtheircriticalfirstyears Governmenthasrespondedwithagreaterrangeof earlyyearsservicesandimprovedsupportforparents
Furtherdiscussion
However,evidencesuggestsmorecouldbedoneto givechildrenthebeststartinlife
64
Earlyyears
Childrensearlyyearsenvironmenthasaprofoundimpactupon theirsubsequentlives
Importance Gaps Progress Potential
Thoseabletoaccessmediumandhighqualityearly yearsprovisionstillshowbenefitsatageten
Sizeofeffectofchildcareonabilityatage10,relativetolowqualitypreschool 1 education Mediumandhighqualitycarehaveclear 0.2
0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0.05 Homecare Mediumqualitypre schooleducation Highqualitypre schooleducation
Childreninthetopquartileatagefivein1975were morelikelytogainbetterqualificationsbyage26
Percentageof26yearoldsattainingeducationalandvocationalqualificationsby 2 quartilepositioninearlydevelopmentscoresatage5
Reading
benefitsoverlowqualitycare,evenatageten
60
BottomQuartile TopQuartile
Mathematics
Highperformingfiveyear oldsaremuchmorelikelyto attainhigherqualifications
30
0
None/Misc Lower/Middle Alevelorhigher
Certainindicatorsintheearlyyearspredictoutcomesthroughoutlife,forexample: Lowbirthweight Morelikelytohaveslowerearlydevelopmentandpoorerhealththroughoutlife Slowcognitive development

3
Oncechildrenfallbehindincognitivedevelopment,theyarelikelytofallfurtherbehindat subsequenteducationalstages.Enhancingmentalcapitalatthebeginningoflifeimprovesfuture 4 learningandwellbeinglaterinlife .Poorcognitivedevelopmentincreasestheriskoffuture 5 offending 30%greaterriskofbeingobeseasanadultwhichisassociatedwithhigherrisksofhypertension, 6 coronaryarterydisease,type2diabetesandcancer
Infantobesity
These indicatorsare allshapedby achildshome environment, whichis discussedin detaillaterin thispaper
(1)EPPE(2004)(2)Feinstein,L(1999)Therelativeeconomicimportanceofacademic,psychologicalandbehaviouralattributesdevelopedinchildhood(3)Jefferisetal(2002)Birthweight,childhood socioeconomicenvironment,andcognitivedevelopmentinthe1958Britishbirthcohortstudy(4)Feinstein,L(1999)Preschooleducationalinequality?Britishchildreninthe1970cohort(5)Carneiroet al(2007)MaternalEducation,HomeEnvironmentsandtheDevelopmentofChildrenandAdolescents(6)Foresight(2007)Tacklingobesity:futurechoices
65
Earlyyears
Socialbackgroundinfluenceschildrensdevelopmentduring theircriticalfirstyears
Gapsbetweenchildrenfromdifferentbackgrounds emergeearlyandarehighlycorrelatedwithparenting andcognitivedevelopment

ScoresonvarioustestsofUKchildrenbornin2000and2001,by familyincome 1 quintile(Q1lowest)
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Vocabularyat3 Vocabularyat5 Conductproblemsat5
Lowersocialclasschildrenbornin1970whoscored highlyinearlycognitivetests,wereovertakenbyage 10byhighersocialclasschildrenwhooriginally scoredlowly

2 Evolutionofeducationalattainmentbypercentileandsocialclass
Attainmentpercentile
Q5
100 80 60 40 20 0 22 42 62
High social class
Q1
Low social class
82
102
122
Forchildrenbornin1970, thosewithhighinitialtest scoresfromlowersocial classesrapidlyfellbehind 3 highersocialclasses Asimilarpatternemerges forthosebornin 2000/2001whowillbe enteringtheworkforce 4 around2020
100 80 60 40 20 0 22
Age (m onths )
Attainmentpercentile
42
62
82
102
122
Age (m onths)
5 6 Pupilsfromdisadvantagedbackgroundsaremorelikelytohavelowerbirthweights ,behaviouralconditions andto beginprimaryschoolwithlowerpersonal,socialandemotionaldevelopmentandcommunication,languageand 7 literacyskillsthantheirpeers Theeffectsofgrowingupinadisadvantagedhouseholdareseldomreversedlaterinlifegapsinattainmentcontinue 8 towidenduringschoolandintofurtherandhighereducation 9 Thegapinattainmentbetweenboysandgirlsinalreadyevidentatage5

(1) WaldfogelandWashbrook(2008)EarlyYearsPolicy(2)(3)Feinstein(2003)(4)BlandenandMachin(2007)RecentChangesinIntergenerationalMobility (5)DCSF(2004)TheHealthofChildrenand YoungPeople(6)Ermisch(2008)Originsofsocialimmobilityandinequality:parentingandearlychilddevelopment(7)DCSF(2006)SocialMobility:NarrowingSocialClassEducationalAttainmentGaps (8)AnalysisproducedbyDCSF:SDAU3TargetsandDeliveryTeam(September2008)(9)DCSF(2008)FoundationstageprofileresultsinEngland,2007/08
66
Earlyyears
Governmenthasrespondedwithagreaterrangeofearlyyears servicesandimprovedsupportforparents
Increasingnumbersofchildrenaretakingupthefree nurseryprovisionavailableforthreeandfouryearolds
1 Percentageofparttimeequivalentfreeearlyeducationplacesfilled
Childrenscentresarebeingbuiltineverycommunity, startingindeprivedareas
2 Numberofchildrencentres
100 95 90 85 80 75 70 2004
3yearolds
4yearolds
3,000
2,000
Childrenscentreshavebeen focussedindeprivedareas, sothatfulldaycareprovision isnowequallyasaccessible 3 inallareas
20,000twoyearoldsin disadvantagedareasalso receivefreechildcare

2005 2006 2007 2008
1,000
0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Governmentinvestmentinearlyyearsandchildcarewasover5bnin200708,fourtimesgreaterinnominalterms 2 thanin199798allowingthenumberofchildcareplacestodouble Qualificationsofstaffprovidingchildcarehasimprovedinalltypesofsettings.In2007,72%ofstaffinfulldaycare 3 settingsheldalevelthreequalificationorhigher,whereasin2003only54%hadsuchqualifications 4 Childcaretaxcreditpaysupto80%*ofanyformalchildcarethateligibleworkingfamiliesuse Parentscannowtakeadvantageof9monthspaidand3monthsunpaidpaidmaternityleave,twoweekspaid paternityleave,13weeksunpaidparentalleaveforeachchild,andtherighttorequestflexibleworkinguntiltheirchild 4 issix

(1)ONS(2008)ProvisionforChildrenUnderFiveYearsofAgeinEngland20008 (2)DCSFbriefingtotheNationalCouncilforEducationExcellence(3)DCSF (2008)ChildcareandearlyYearsProvidersSurvey2007(4)direct.gov.uk*Uptoamaximumof175perweekforonechild,and300perweekfortwoormore
67
Earlyyears
However,evidencesuggestsmorecouldbedonetogive childrenthebeststartinlife
Importance Progress Gaps Potential
InScandinavia,thelinksbetweenparentalandchild attainmenthaveweakenedforgenerationsbenefiting fromuniversalchildcare

Probabilityofachildofaloweducatedfathercompletinguppersecondary 1 educationrelativetoachildofahighereducatedfather
0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 USA UK Germany Denmark Norway Sweden
Thereisevidencethathighqualitychildcarecanhave alongtermimpactonchildrenfromdisadvantaged backgrounds

FinancialreturnsfromimprovedoutcomesfollowingPerryPreschoolProgram 2 interventionsfordisadvantagedchildren,US$per$oforiginalinvestment
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Returnsuptoage27 Projectedtotalreturnsacrosslifetime
Cohortsborn194554 Cohortsborn195564 Cohortsborn197075
AdeclineinScandinaviaintheimpactofparentalfactors onchildrenseducationalattainmentcoincidedwiththe introductionofuniversalhighqualitychildcare Itisarguedthatprovidingthisaccesstohighquality childcareforallhasalloweddisadvantagedchildrento haveabetterstartinlifeandconsequentlyhavehigher 1 educationalattainment ThissuggeststheincreasedUKinvestmentinsuchcare willhavesomeimpactonthenextgeneration,buta strongerimpactcouldbeachievedwithmoreinvestment
Evidencefromaroundtheworldfindsthatformalcare hasanaboveaveragebeneficialimpacton 3 disadvantagedchildrensdevelopment IntheUK,thebenefitsofhigherqualitypreschoolare greaterforboys,childrenwithspecialeducationalneeds anddisadvantagedchildren.Thedifferencebetween attendingahighqualitypreschoolandattendingalow qualitypreschoolislargerforchildrenwhocomefrom 4 moredisadvantagedbackgrounds

68
(1)EspingAndersen(2007)UntyingtheGordianKnotofSocialInheritance(2)CarneiroandHeckman(2003) HumanCapitalPolicy(3)Melhuish(2004)A literaturereviewoftheimpactofearlyyearsprovisiononyoungchildren (4)DCSF(2008)Effectivepreschoolandprimaryeducation311project(EPPE311) influencesonchildrenscognitiveandsocialdevelopmentinyear6
Drivers Capability Schooling
Introduction
2.Schooling Successinschoolisthemostimportantfactor,upto age16,forexplainingfuturemobility.Butarelatively highproportionofUKchildrendidnotattainschool qualifications Thosewholeaveschoolwithfewqualificationsare overwhelminglyfromparticularsocialbackgrounds Overalleducationalattainmenthasimprovedrecently andisimprovingatafasterrateforpreviouslylower performinggroups Evidencesuggeststeachershaveasignificantimpact onfuturepotential,butgoodteachersarelesslikelyto beinschoolsfacingchallengingcircumstances
Furtherdiscussion
69
Successinschoolisthemostimportantfactor,uptoage16,for explainingfuturemobility.ButarelativelyhighproportionofUK childrendidnotattainschoolqualifications

Atage16,schoolqualificationsarethemost importantdeterminantofmobility,butcognitiveand noncognitiveskillsremainimportant
Percentageofintergenerationalmobilityofsonsthatcanbeexplainedbygiven 1 factor Cognitiveskills
Schooling
Toenablemorepeopletomoveupintobetterjobsthe UKseducationsystemneedstoensuremorechildren attainqualificationsthanhavedoneinthepast

Percentageof2534yearoldsthathaveattainedatleastuppersecondary education.Theseindividualsturned16intheperiod1986965
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Importanceof factorsupto age16in explaining socialmobility
11%
Noncognitiveskills
7%
Schoolqualifications atage16
Inthelate1980sandearly1990sUK childrenwerelesslikelytoattainupper secondaryqualificationsthanthe OECDaverage
20%
Timespentineducationisbyfarthemostimportant 2 determinantoffuturesocialstatus Thereisastronglinkbetweenbehavioursduring educationandfutureprospectsinwork: poorbehaviourandselfesteemaged10aregood predictorsofmaleunemploymentandlowwages andcanincreasetheriskoflongterm 3 unemploymentforsomegroupsbyalmost10% girlsattitudestocontrolandresponsibilityaged10 4 arestronglyrelatedtolateremploymentoutcomes
Morerecently,internationalcomparisonssuggestthat British15yearoldsscienceattainmentisclosetothe average,butthereisabelowaverageproportionof 6 poorperformers .Butthedisparitybetweenthevery 7 highestandveryloweststudentsisrelativelyhigh Thenumberofpoorperformersat15intheUKisalso belowtheOECDaverageformathematicsandreading 8 competency

70
(1)Blanden,GreggandMacmillan(2006)Accountingforintergenerationalincomepersistence:Noncognitiveskillsabilityandeducation(2)Schoon(2008)ATransgenerationalModelofStatus Attainment(3)and(4)Feinstein(1999)Therelativeeconomicimportanceofacademic,psychologicalandbehaviouralattributesdevelopedinchildhood(5)OECD(2008)Educationataglance(6) (8)OECD(2007)PISA2006:OECDbriefingnotefortheUnitedKingdom(7)AnneMarieBrook(2008)RaisingEducationAchievementandBreakingtheCycleofInequalityintheUnitedKingdom
or tu g P a l ol an d S pa U in ni te d It K al N ing y e d O wZ om E ea C D lan a v e d r A age us tra li Fr a an c Ire e la U Ge n d ni rm te d an S y ta D tes en m ar Fi k nl a C nd an a S da w ed en K or ea
Thosewholeaveschoolwithfewqualificationsare overwhelminglyfromparticularsocialbackgrounds
Schooling
Childrenfromlowersocioeconomicbackgroundsare lesslikelytoleaveschoolwith5+goodGCSEs
1 Percentageofchildrenobtaining5+A*CGCSEs,bysocioeconomicposition
Evidenceonattainmentgapssuggestschildrenfrom deprivedhouseholdsperformrelativelypoorly throughoutschool

RatioofanonFSM(freeschoolmeal)pupilachievingperformancebenchmarks 2 relativetoaFSMpupilatvariousstagesduringeducation,byage
80%
Highest quintile
4 3.5 3
40%
Lowest quintile
2.5 2 1.5
Thelikelihoodofricherpupilsreachingcertain performancebenchmarksarehigherthanpoorerpupils throughoutschool,andwidenovertime

4 8 12 16
0% 1 2 3 4 5
Attainmentgapsdonottendtocloseduringschool:10%fewerpupilsfromthebottomsocialgroupwhowereinthe 3 bottomeducationalquintileatage7climboutby11,comparedtoallothergroups(30%versus40%) 4 Lowerattainmentisassociatedwithlowerparentaloccupationalclass,levelofqualifications , andincome Ethnicityandgenderarealsoassociatedwithattainment:pupilsofChineseethnicityarealmosttwiceaslikelytogain 5 fivegoodGCSEsincludingEnglishandmathsasblackpupilsandgirlscontinuetooutperformboys Acrossarangeofcountries,theimpactoffamilybackgroundonmathematicsresultswasfoundtobethehighestin 5 theUK. However,anothercrosscountrycomparisonoftheinfluenceofsocioeconomicbackgroundonscience 6 attainmentfoundtheUKwasclosetotheOECDaverage
(1)Barreauetal(2008)Thesocioeconomicgradientinchildoutcomes(2)AnalysisproducedbyDCSF:SDAU3TargetsandDeliveryTeam(September2008)(3)Locatesource(4)DCSF(2006) Socialmobility:NarrowingSocialClassEducationalAttainmentGaps:(5)OECD(2006)ProgrammeforInternationalStudentAssessmentfigures(5)OECD(2007)PISA2006,BriefingNoteforthe UnitedKingdom(6)Scheutz,UrsprungandWoessman(2005)EducationPolicyandEqualityofOpportunity
71
Overalleducationalattainmenthasimprovedrecentlyandis improvingatafasterrateforpreviouslylowerperforming groups

Risingattainment,particularlyindeprivedareas,has reducedthenumberofpoorperformingschools
Numberofschoolswithlessthancertainpercentagesof15yearoldpupils 1 achieving5+A*CGCSEsincludingEnglishandmaths
Schooling
GCSEattainmenthasrisenandatafasterratefor childrenofmanualworkers
Percentageofcohortachieving5+A*CGCSEsbyparentaloccupation:1988 2 2006 (somedataunavailable) 80
70
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1997
Otherevidenceshowsthatschools withmoredeprivedpupilshave improvedtheirresultsatafasterrate thanthoseinmoreaffluentareas
Below30% Below25% Below20% Below15%
60 50 40 30 20 10 Manual
Thisgaphas narrowed
NonManual
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Englishandmathsattainmentof11yearoldshasrisen,andthegapinthepercentageattainingexpectedlevelsatthis 3 agebetweenFSM(freeschoolmeals)andnonFSMpupilshasdeclinedfrom27%gapin2002to24%in2007 TherehasbeenparticularsuccessatGCSEforcertainareas,groupsandschools:attainmentinLondonhasrisen abovethenationalaverage,Bangladeshipupilshaverisenfrombeingthelowestperformerstobeingaboveaverage 4 andacademies,whichtendtobeindeprivedareas,achievetwiceashighresultsastheirpredecessorschools Recognisingtheimportanceofnoncognitiveskillsforsocialmobility,theSocialandEmotionalAspectsofLearning (SEAL)programmehasbeenlaunchedtodeveloptheseskillsthroughawholeschoolapproach,andacrossthe curriculum. Anevaluationfoundthatithadamajorimpactonchildrenswellbeing,confidence,socialand 5 communicationskills,relationships,andschoolbehaviourandattitude
(1)DCSF,2008(2)(3)(4)DCSF(5)SusanHallam,JasmineRhamie,andJackieStraw,EvaluationofthePrimaryBehaviourandAttendancePilot,Research Report717,DCSF,IoE(2006)
72
Evidencesuggeststeachershaveasignificantimpactonfuture potential,butgoodteachersarelesslikelytobeinschools facingchallengingcircumstances

1 Teachershaveasignificantimpactonattainment
Schooling
Importance Progress Gaps Potential
Studentperformance,USdata
th 100 percentile
Agoodteachercanmakethedifferencebetween anaveragepupilbeinginthe37thor90th percentileafterthreeyears th 90 her teac ing* percentile form

S t ud ent hi with gh p er
Teacherswhoaremostqualifiedintheirsubjecttend toteachbetter,butarelesslikelytoworkinschools 4 facingchallengingcircumstances

Percentageofteachersratedexcellent,good,satisfactoryandpoor,bydegreeto whichtheirqualificationsmatchthesubjecttheyareteaching
Excellent Excellentmatch Goodmatch Satisfactorymatch Poormatch 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Good Satisfactory Poor
th 50 percentile
53percentile points
with lowp erforming
th 37 percentile
Student
**teache
0 percentile
th
*Amongthetop20%ofteachers **Amongthebottom20%ofteachers Age8 Age11
Teacherswhoarenotqualifiedinthesubjecttheyareteachingare morelikelytoworkinschoolswheremorethan20%ofpupilsare eligibletoreceivefreeschoolmeals
ThisUSfindingisreplicatedintheUK:onestudyfound pupilattainmentisfourtimesmorevariedatthe 2 classroomlevelthanattheschoollevel Anotherstudyfoundthatoutofagroupof50teachers,a childtaughtbyoneofthebesttenwilllearnattwicethe 3 speedasonetaughtbyoneoftheworstten
Teachersinschoolswheremorethan20%ofpupilsare eligibletoreceivefreeschoolmealsarealsomorelikely toberatedworseintheirteaching,arelesslikelytohave comefromanoutstandingPGCEprovider,andarelikely 5 tostayashortertime

73
(1)SandersandRivers(1996)CumulativeandResidualEffectsonFutureStudentAcademicAchievement(2)DylanWilliamspeechtotheSSAT(2006)(3]Wiliam,D.,andThompson,M.(2000) Integratingassessmentwithinstruction:whatwillittaketomakeitwork? (4)OfsteadInspectionData(2005)(5)TDA(2008)
Drivers Capability Transitions
Introduction
3.Transitiontowork Gainingpost16qualificationsiscrucialinproviding peoplewiththecapabilitiesandskillsneededtomove upintothebestjobs
Thosewhochoosevocationalroutesintoworktendto befromdisadvantagedsocialbackgrounds,andthey receivelesssupportfromgovernment BeingNEET(notinemployment,educationor training)affectsfuturelifechancesandthosewhoare NEETaredisproportionatelyfromlower socioeconomicbackgrounds Youngpeoplearenowreceivingmoresupporttostudy foralltypesofqualifications,andstepshavebeen takentoreducethenumberofNEETs Ensuringamorejoinedupsystemtosupportyoung peoplespathwaysandtransitionscouldenablemore people,especiallyfromlowersocioeconomicgroups, tofulfiltheirpotential 74
Furtherdiscussion
Transitions
Gainingpost16qualificationsiscrucialinprovidingpeople withthecapabilitiesandskillsneededtomoveupintothebest jobs

Schoolqualificationsat16inpartdeterminesocial mobilitybyallowingpeopletoobtainfurtherpost16 qualifications
Percentageofintergenerationalmobilityofsonsthatcanbeexplainedbygiven 1 factor Cognitiveskills 8% Indirecteffect feedsthroughpost 16qualifications Importanceof Noncognitiveskills 7% Directeffect alleducational
Progressingontogainadegreesignificantly increaseswagereturns
2 Averagewagereturn(percent)versusnoqualifications,19972006
30 25 20 15 10
Ensuringstudentshavethefull rangeofoptionsonwhichcourseto pursueandwhichinstitutionto studyatiscrucialatthetransition fromAlevelstouniversity
factorsin explaining socialmobility
Schoolqualifications atage16
11%
9%
5 0
Post16educational qualifications
20%
5+GCSEs(any grades)
2Alevels
First/foundation degree
Inadditiontohigherwages,betterqualifiedindividualsenjoyimprovedemploymentprospectsandanincreased likelihoodofreceivingworkplacetraining.Theyaremorelikelytogetpromotedandundertakefurtherlearning, 3 includingprogressingintohighereducation Therootcauseoflowrepresentationinhighereducationbycertaingroupsismostlikelyduetopoorprior 4 attainmentandthedevelopmentofloweraspirationsbeforetheageof16 Lowersocioeconomicgroupsareunderrepresentedinhighereducation:the20%mostdisadvantagedstudents 5 arearoundsixtimeslesslikelytoparticipateinhighereducationthanthe20%mostadvantagedpupils

(1)Blanden,GreggandMacmillan(2006)Accountingforintergenerationalincomepersistence:noncognitiveskills,abilityandeducation(2)Jenkinsetal(2007)ReturnstoqualificationsinEngland(3) DCSF(2007)RaisingExpectations:Stayingineducationandtrainingpost16(4)SuttonTrust(2008)IpsosMORIYoungPeopleOmnibusSurvey(5)HigherEducationFundingCouncil,Young ParticipationinHigherEducation(2005)
75
Transitions
Thosewhochoosevocationalroutesintoworktendtobefrom disadvantagedsocialbackgrounds,andtheyreceiveless supportfromgovernment

Thosefromlowersocioeconomicgroupsare morelikelytochoosevocationalroutes
Mainstudyaimatage16byparentaloccupation:percentage 1 reportingaimingforavocationalqualification2004
Andthereislessfinancialsupportperpersonin vocationaltrainingthanthereisinhighereducation
Supporttypicalstudentsdoingvocationalandacademictrainingmightexpect 2 toget()*
Routine Lowersupervisory Intermediate Lowerprofessionals Higherprofessionals 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 HigherEducation VocationalRoute

*Note:itisnotpossibletomakeanaccuratedirectcomparisonbetweenthecoursesstudiedin eachrouteandthesupportneedsoflearnersbecausethesystemsaresodifferent.1)Partof thedifferenceinthespendfiguresrelatestodifferentcourselengths.2)Maintenanceloancosts refertocashoutlayratherthanthetruecostofprovidingtheloan.3)Participationcostsconsist ofbothinstitutionalgrantandtuitionfeeloans(alsoincashterms)
Typicalmaintenance supportsubsidisedloan Typicalmaintenance supportgrant Typicalcourseentitlement
73%of19yearoldsin2005fromhigherprofessionalbackgroundshadachievedLevel3orabovequalifications,of 3 which89%cameviaobtainingA/ASlevelqualifications Forthosewithparentsinroutinenonmanualoccupations,only31%hadLevel3orabovequalificationsand,of 4 these,only55%hadobtainedtheseviaA/ASlevelqualifications Substantiallymoreyoungpeoplewanttostayoninfulltimeeducationthaneventuallydoso(84%versus72%)and 5 thegapislargestforthosefromlowersocioeconomicgroups

(1)(3)(4)YouthCohortStudy(2005)(2)DIUS(2008)internalanalysis(5)DCSF(2008)YouthCohortStudyandLongitudinalStudyofYoungPeopleinEngland:TheActivitiesandExperiencesof16 YearOlds:England2007
76
Transitions
BeingNEET*affectsfuturelifechancesandthosewhoareNEET aredisproportionatelyfromlowersocioeconomicbackgrounds
BeingNEETduringearlyadulthoodhaslongterm impactsonoutcomes
Percentofmaleswithsymptomsofsocialexclusionaged21,whowereeither 1 NEETsornonNEETswhenaged1618
withoutqualifications notrainingincurrentjob unemployed
Thosenotineducation,employmentortrainingare muchmorelikelytocomefromlowersocioeconomic backgrounds

2 Socioeconomicgroupingof19yearoldsfamilies
100%
Other/unclassified Routine Lowersupervisory Intermediate
parent depression criminalrecord poorhealth
NEET
50%
Participatedin educationorw ork
Lowerprofessional
Higherprofessional
0 20 40 60 80 100
0%
BeingNEETbetween1618isthesinglemostimportant 3 predictorofunemploymentatage21 TheaveragecostofbeingNEET(bothintermsofa reductioninproductivityandadditionalpublicfinance costs)isestimatedtobearound97,000perpersonover 4 alifetime(2000/01prices)
ThoseNEET
Thoseinuniversity
NearlyhalfofNEETscome fromlowersocioeconomic backgrounds,comparedwith lessthanaquarterofuniversity students

77
*NotinEmployment,EducationorTraining(1)1970BritishCohortsurveyinSEU(1999)Bridgingthegap(2)DCSF(2008)YouthCohortStudy,Cohort12, sweep4(3)Blanden,GreggandMacmillan(2006)Accountingforintergenerationalincomepersistence:noncognitiveskills,abilityandeducation(4)DCSF (2002)EstimatingthecostofbeingNotinEducation,EmploymentorTrainingatage1618
Transitions
Youngpeoplearenowreceivingmoresupporttostudyforall typesofqualifications,andstepshavebeentakentoreducethe numberofNEETs

EducationalMaintenanceAllowanceshave increasedthenumberofyoungpeoplestaying onandgainingKeyStage5qualifications
EstimatedpercentimpactofEMAsonpupilsattainment(Alevelpoint 1 score),2002/03cohort
Thegovernmenthasatargetedstrategyforreducing NEETs,aimedattacklingdisengagementandensuring youngpeoplehavearangeoflearningoptions

3 DCSFstrategyforreducingNEETS2008
Female
Male
Initsfirstyearof nationalrollout,EMA encouragedan additional18,500young peopletoparticipatein furthereducationwho wouldnothavedoneso withoutthefinancial 2 supportandincentive
Carefultracking Toidentifyearlythoseyoungpeoplewhoare systems NEET,orwhoareatriskofbecomingNEET Personalised guidanceand support Provisionofa fullrangeof courses Emphasison rightsand responsibilities Tomakesureyoungpeopleknowhowtoaccess education,trainingoremploymentandtoenable themtoovercomebarrierstoparticipation Toengageyoungpeoplethroughsufficient provisionateverylevelandineverystyleof learning Aclearsetofincentivesforyoungpeopletore engageassoonaspossibleiftheydropout
10
78%of16yearoldsareinfulltimeeducationariseof6%in3yearsand90%of16yearoldsareinsome 4 formofeducationortraining Therearecurrently160,00016to18yearoldsamongstatotalof250,000apprenticesintraining,upfrom 5 75,000in1997
(1)IFS(2007)Educationmaintenanceallowance:Evaluationwithadministrativedata(2)RCU(2007)researchfocussedontheperceptionsofasampleof2,000 LearnersreceivingEMA,theperceptionsof375ProvidersadministeringEMA,andtheresultsofDataAnalysisofexistingMIdatasets(3)DCSF(2008)Reducing theproportionof1618yearoldsNEET:Thestrategy(4)DCSF(2008)(5)DIUS(2008)
78
Transitions
Ensuringamorejoinedupsystemtosupportyoungpeoples pathwaysandtransitionscouldenablemorepeople,especially fromlowersocioeconomicgroups,tofulfiltheirpotential
Amorejoinedupsupportsystemcouldenableasmoother Morepeoplefromlowersocioeconomicgroupscould goontotheinstitutionsthathavehigherreturns andsimplerpathandtransitionintotheworkplace

1 Examplesoftransitionpointsforsomeyoungpeoplesprogressionintotheworkplace
PercentapplicationstoRussellgroupinstitutionsforthosewith30+UCAS 2 points,2001bysocioeconomicgroup
Age:
1618
19+
80% 60%
Guaranteed apprenticeship place Entryto employment Educational Maintenance Allowance
Competitionfor apprenticeshipplaces
40% 20%
NewDeal(youngpeople orloneparents)
0%
Lowersocioeconomic group Highersocioeconomic group
Adultlearninggrants
Connexionsguidance
Nextstepsadvisor services
Betterinformationonappropriatepathways,stronger incentivestomakelongtermdecisions,andsupportto tacklebarriersatkeytransitionpointscouldenable moreyoungpeopletoprogresspost16 Evidencealsosuggeststhereisaperiodinearly adulthoodwhenpeopleregretdroppingoutofschool andarelikelytowantasecondchancetoreturnto 3 learning

79
Keyhandoverpointsinthesystemwheresimple andsmoothtransitionscanimproveoutcomes
(1)DCSF(2008)(2)DCSF(2006)Socialmobility:NarrowingSocialClassEducationalAttainmentGaps(3)CabinetOfficeSU(2008)Life chances:Supportingpeopletogetoninthelabourmarket
Drivers Capability Adulthood
Introduction
4.Adulthood
Themajorityoftheworkforceofthenextdecadeare alreadyagedover25.Increasingtheirsocialmobility requiresimprovingtheiropportunitiestoprogressin theworkplace Differencesinpeoplesearlierlifechancesplayout, andarecompounded,oncetheyentertheworkplace Progresshasbeenmadeinenablingpeopletoupdate andincreasetheirskilllevels,aswellasensuringthe righttosecondandthirdchancesforcareer progression Ensuringallindividualshavetheopportunity continuallytolearnnewskillsandprogressinthe workforceiscrucialtoremovingbarrierstorealising fullpotential
Furtherdiscussion
80
Themajorityoftheworkforceofthenextdecadearealready agedover25.Increasingtheirsocialmobilityrequiresimproving theiropportunitiestoprogressintheworkplace

Morethanhalfofthefutureworkforcewillbe peoplewhoarealreadyaged25orover
1 Percentoftotalworkingagepopulationwhowereaged25andoverin2006
Adulthood
Andthosewithlessskillshavemorelimited progressionprospects
Grossmedianannualearnings()byageformen,disaggregatedbyskilllevel, 2 19942006
50000 40000
Highskill
100 80 60 40 20 0 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
Around70%ofthe workforcein2020are alreadybeyondthe 2 compulsoryeducationage
30000 20000 10000 0

24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45
Mediumskill
Lowskill
Age
Effectivetrainingandopportunitieswithintheworkplaceareimportantinenablingprogression.Thosecurrently agedover25willaccountforoverhalfoftheworkingagepopulationin2020.Thisisbeyondtheagewhenpeople 3 arelikelytoparticipateinthetraditionaleducationroutefromschoolthroughtouniversity Recentregionallearningandskillscouncilsreportshavealsohighlightedtheimportanceoftrainingthecurrent workforcetomeetfutureskilldemands.Forexample,intheWestMidlandsthebusinessandprofessionalservices sectorshighskillsneedisexpectedtogrowoverthenext10years,butwithinthesectortherearestill62,500 4 peoplewithqualificationsbelowLevel2,ofwhom17,000havenoqualifications

(1)GADPopulationProjections,basedon2006principalprojections(2)BHPSWaves115(3)DWP/DIUS(2007)Opportunity,EmploymentandProgression: Makingskillswork(4)LearningandSkillscouncil(2007)Reviewofeducationandtraininginbusinessandprofessionalserviceswestmidlands
51 54 57
21
48
81
Differencesinpeoplesearlierlifechancesplayout,andare compounded,oncetheyentertheworkplace
Adulthood
Forthetopprofessions,accessislimitedforthose fromalessprivilegedbackground
Percentageofjudgesfromhighandappealcourtsandbarristers fromeight 2 leadingchamberswhoattendedafeepayingschool,2004 Only7%oftheentireschool agepopulationareeducated privatelyinEnglandand Wales,comparedtoover twothirdsofbarristersin leadingchambersandthree quartersofjudgesinappeal 2 andhighcourts
Thosewhoarelowskilledarelesslikelytoreceive inworktraining,furthercompoundingtheir disadvantage

Percentofemployeeswhohaveundertakenjobrelatedtraininginthepast3 1 months,byhighestqualificationlevel,2007
Barristersin leading chambers
40% 30% 20% 10%
Judgesin appealand highcourts 0% 50%
100% 0%
NoQuals BelowLevel 2 Level2 Level3 Level4& above
TheUKstillhasnearly5millionpeopleofworkingagewithoutanyqualification,7millionadultswith numeracyproblemsand5millionnotfunctionallyliterate.However,employersandemployeesoftenfailto 5 addresstheirskillsneeds,suggestingvariousbarriersexist USevidenceshowslowpaidworkersaremorelikelytoimprovetheirearningsmainlybymovingtoanother 4 firm,typicallyatthesameoccupationallevel

(1)LabourForceSurveyQ22007(2)TheSuttonTrust(2005)TheeducationalbackgroundsoftheUKtopsolicitors,barristersandjudges(3)Blundelletal (1996),alsoLFS2007(4)Deardenetal(1997)Labourturnoverandworkrelatedtraining(5)CabinetOfficeStrategyUnit(2008)Lifechances:Supporting peopletogetoninthelabourmarket
82
Progresshasbeenmadeinenablingpeopletoupdateand increasetheirskilllevels,aswellasensuringtherighttosecond andthirdchancesforcareerprogression

Governmentishelpingbothbusinessesand individualstoimproveskilllevels
TraintoGainprogramme:statedactualtrainingoutcomesforthelearnersinwave 1 1learnersurvey,spring2007(percent)
Adulthood
Thebroadrangeofadviceandsupportservicesare increasinglybeingjoineduptoenableprogression
Regionaltrials,becomingoperationalnationallyin2010
Aqualification Skillsthatwilllookgoodto futureemployers Skillstohelpmedoabetter jobinthefuture Improvedselfconfidence Apromotion

0 20 40 60 80
Sinceitslaunchin 2006,over100,000 employershave engagedwiththeTrain toGainservice,over 570,000peoplehave receivedtrainingand over290,000learners haveachieveda 2 qualification
Skills Accounts
Anewonlinetoolwhere,throughouttheir career,anindividualcanlogtheirskillsand training,accessfundingtoaccumulatethe necessaryskillscreditsneededtoprogress andaccessadviceandsupport Drawstogetherafullrangeofadviceand supportonissuessuchasjobs,skills, childcare,housing,financialandpersonal issuestoaddressthebroaderneedsof customersanddriveprogression
Adult advancement andcareers service
100
Progresshasbeenmadeinprovidingthesupporttohelpindividualsgetintoandprogressinworkincluding:free traininguptolevel3forallagedupto25,supportforalladultstogainfreebasicskillsandlevel2qualifications, moreapprenticeshipandadvancedapprenticeshipplaces Progresshasalsobeenmadeinsupportingemployerstobetteraccesstherangeofopportunitiesforimproving theskillsoftheiremployees.Forexampletheintroductionofskillsbrokersandgovernmentfundingincludinga subsidyofupto100%forSkillsforLifeandfirstfulllevel2qualifications

(1)LearningandSkillsCouncil(2008)TraintoGainlearnerevaluation:reportfromwave1research
83
Ensuringallindividualshavetheopportunitycontinuallytolearn newskillsandprogressintheworkforceiscrucialtoremoving barrierstorealisingfullpotential

Tacklingbarrierstotrainingcouldhelpindividuals andfirmstoinvestmoretimeinupskilling
1 Possiblebarrierstoindividualsinvestingintraining
Adulthood
Activeinterventionscanhelppeoplesustainworkand progress
2 UKunemploymentclaimantcount,000s*andgovernmentprogrammes
1600
Time Motivation and attitudes Information Cost
Difficultyinbalancingtrainingwithother responsibilitiesandcommitments Thinktrainingisnotrelevanttothem, possiblyduetopoorearliereducation experiences Notawareofopportunitiesfortraining,or abletocalculatethelikelyreturns Notabletoaffordtraining/costofincome foregone.Returnstotrainingmayappearlow
1200
2001:startofEmploymentZonesaimedatlong termunemployed.InnovativeapproachesinEZs ledtosignificantincreasesinworkparticipation 3 comparedtoNewDeal25+
800
400
1998:NewDeallaunched. Mandatorytailored support.NewDealfor youngpeopleshownto increasechanceoffinding 3 jobby20%

1999 2001 2003
0 1997
2003:employmentretentionand advancementpilots.Lone parentsandlongterm unemployedgivensupport plans,andfinancialincentives

2005 2007
*numberofpeopleclaimingunemploymentrelatedbenefits
Thereareclearreturnstoincreasingskillsforindividualsandbusinesses.Anadditional10%increasein employeesreceivingjobrelatedtrainingisassociatedwitha6%increaseinproductivity,anda3%increasein 3 4 wages. However,UKemployeesonlyspendanaverageoftwodaysayearintraining,halfthatofDenmark Integratingemploymentandskillssystemscouldimprovejobretentionandadvancement.Some4.6millionpeople 5 ofworkingagearewithoutqualifications,ofwhom2.2millionareinactiveand280,000areunemployed. Training 6 isusuallymosteffectivewhendirectlyconnectedtoaparticularjob Thosewithpoorliteracyskillshaveanemploymentrateof55%,comparedwitharound75%forthosewithgood 7 literacyskills
(1)(6)CabinetOfficeSU(2008)Lifechances:supportingpeopletogetoninthelabourmarket(2)ONS(2008)Estimatesofseasonallyadjustedclaimant countintheUK (3)NSCR(2003)Evaluationofemploymentzones(4)Deardenetal(2005)Theimpactoftrainingonproductivityandwages(5)Eurostat (2002)CVTS2(7)DWP(2007)Opportunity,employmentandprogression:makingskillswork
84
Drivers Capability Family
Introduction
Supportingfamiliesinwhichpeoplecandevelop
Familyisauniqueandimportantinstitutionthat createstheconditionsforindividualstoprogress. Whatafamilydoes,andhow,isimportantthroughout thefourlifestages Emotionalattachmentsintheearlyyearsoflifeare crucialtoforminglifelongbondsthathelpchildrento developcapabilitiesinseveraldistinctways Parentalinvolvementineducationandparents aspirationsfortheirchildrensfutureincreases childrensattainment Lackoffinancialresourcesinafamilyislikelytohave anegativeimpactonchildrenscapabilities
Furtherdiscussion
Familyisalsoanimportantmechanismforproviding socialandculturalcapital
85
Familyisauniqueandimportantinstitutionthatcreatesthe conditionsforindividualstoprogress.Whatafamilydoes,and how,isimportantthroughoutthefourlifestages

Familieshelptheirmembersacrossthelifestages
Governmentsupportsfamiliesintwoways:reducing pressuresonthemandenhancingtheircapabilities Thisisbestillustratedaroundatypicallifeevent
Earlyyears Secureattachmentofparent tochildimprovesanarrayof emotionalandcognitive outcomesintheearlyyears School Familiesplayanimportantrole inprovidingahomelearning environmentandaspiration whichincreaseschildrens attainment
Approach Reduce pressures

Rightsand legal protection Financial support Supportin kind
Policy
Maternityand paternityleave Flexibleworking andchildcare Targetedbenefits suchaschildcare taxcredits Healthvisitors provideinformation andtraining Antenatalclasses provideadviceand support
Transitions
Advancement inwork
Familiescanprovidesocial andfinancialcapitalthatcan beusedtoinvestinhuman 1 capitalinitsbroadestsense
Information Enhance andguidance capabilities Skillsand training Intervention
(1)StrategyUnit,LifeChancesandSocialMobility:anOverviewoftheEvidence(2004)
86
Emotionalattachmentsintheearlyyearsoflifearecrucialto forminglifelongbondsthathelpchildrentodevelopcapabilities inseveraldistinctways

Emotionalbondsareimportanttoachildsneurological development
1 CTscansof3yearoldsbrains
Positiveearlyyearsexperienceshavelongterm 3 effectsondevelopment
Positiveinteractioncycle Parentinitiates positive interactionswith child Longtermeffects 1. Wiringofthebrain 2. Sensoryintegration 3. Emotionalliteracy 4. Beliefsystems Childresponds positively 5. Relationship patterns 6. Empathy Selfesteem Selfefficacy 7. Conscience/moral development
Brainsmallerand lessdeveloped
Normal
Extremeneglect
Thequalityofachildsearly environmentandtheavailability ofappropriateexperiencesat therightstagesofdevelopment arecrucialindeterminingthe strengthorweaknessofthe brainsarchitecture (synaptogenesis,theprocess connectingpathwaysinthe brain,isfastestinthefirstyear oflife).This,inturn,determines howwellachildisabletothink 2 andtoregulateemotions
Nurturingandstablerelationshipswithcaringadultsareessentialtohealthyhumandevelopmentfrombirth.Early, secureattachmentscontributetothegrowthofabroadrangeofcompetencies,includingaloveoflearning,self esteem,selfefficacy,positivesocialskills,successfulrelationshipsatlaterages,andasophisticatedunderstandingof 4 emotions,commitment,morality,andotheraspectsofhumanrelationships Sensitiveandresponsiveparentchildrelationshipsarealsoassociatedwithstrongercognitiveskillsinyoungchildren 5 andenhancedsocialcompetenceandworkskillslaterinschool Foresightresearchhasidentifiedclearadversefactorsforfoetalandearlybraindevelopmentsuchaspoormaternal 6 dietandadversematernallifestyle(eg.chronicstress,alcohol,tobacco,andrecreationaldrugabuse)

(1)Perry(2002)Childhoodexperienceandtheexpressionofgeneticpotential:whatchildhoodneglecttellsusaboutnatureandnurture,BrainandMind3:79100(2),(4),5)USNational ScientificCouncilonthedevelopingchild(2004)Workingpaper1:Youngpeopledevelopinanenvironmentofrelationships(3)adaptedfromNorthumberlandNHSTrustpresentationon theimportanceoftheearlyyears(6)Foresight(2007)Mentalcapitalandwellbeingprojectresearchkeyemergingfindings
87
Parentalinvolvementineducationandparentsaspirationsfor theirchildrensfutureincreaseschildrensattainment
Apositiveearlyyearshomelearningenvironment forachildcangreatlyenhancetheirattainment
Strengthoftheeffectofhomelearningenvironmentonyear6maths 1 attainmentbyearlyyearsHomeLearningEnvironment(HLE)indexscores
0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 HLE1419 HLE2024 HLE2532 HLE3344
Parentalaspirationsareimportantforchildrens attainment Parentalaspirationshaveapositiveinfluence equivalenttotheimpactoffouradditionalschool 5 termsonpupilprogression Strand(2007)foundthatyoungpeopleaged14 whoseparentsaspiredforthemtostayonpost 16achievedKeyStage3scoresonaveragefour pointshigherthanyoungpeoplewhoseparents didnothavetheseaspirations,controllingforthe 6 othereffectsoffamilybackground Educationalandcareeraspirationsdeveloped duringadolescencecanhavelifelong significance,influencingfutureoccupational 7 outcomes
Attheageof10,apositive earlyyearsHLEexperience stillhasasignificanteffect oncognitiveattainment
BetterHLE
Parentalinterestintheirchildseducationhasfourtimes moreinfluenceonattainmentbyage16thansocio 2 economicbackground Parentalinvolvementintheirchildsreadinghasbeenfound tobethemostimportantdeterminantoflanguageand 3 emergentliteracy Parentaleducationandengagementintheirchilds developmenthaveahugeinfluenceonchildrens 4 educationalprogressandlifechances
(1)Sammonsetal.(2008)EPPE:Influencesonchildrensattainmentandprogress(2)FeinsteinandSymons(1999)AttainmentinSecondarySchool(3)Bus,A.G.,vanIjzendoorn,Pellegrini,(1995). Jointbookreadingmakesforsuccessinlearningtoread,ReviewofEducationalResearch,65,121(4)Feinstein,Budge,VorhausandDuckworth,IoE,Thesocialandpersonalbenefitsoflearning (2008)(5)NCSR(2006)NationalAdultsLearningSurvey,2005,DFESrr815(6)NationalLiteracyTrust(2007)Whyitisimportanttoinvolveparents(7)Schoon,I.(2006).RiskandResilience
88
Lackoffinancialresourcesinafamilyislikelytohavea negativeimpactonchildrenscapabilities
Governmentismakingprogressinreducing childpoverty
1 Proportionofchildreninpoverty,bytype,percent
Howeveranumberofgroupsstillfaceahigh riskofhavingchildrenlivinginpoverty
2 Familieswithaparticularlyhighriskofpovertybypercent
30% 25% 20%
Average=22% Workless Relative PakistaniandBangladeshiminorities Oneadultparttime
15% 10%
Absolute
Threeormorechildren Oneormoredisabledadults
0 20 40 60 80
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
3 Thereisastrongassociationbetweenparentalincomeandchildrenssubsequentearningsasadults thegreater afamilysfinancialcapital,thegreateritscapacitytoinvestinthehumancapitalofchildren 4 Parentswithfewerfinancialresourcestendtoholdloweraspirationsfortheirchildren Experiencingpovertyasachildhassubstantialimpactonchildrensexperiencesatschool,wheretheycanmiss outonopportunitiestolearnandsocialisebecausetheirfamiliesmayhavedifficultymeetingcostsofuniforms, 5 schooltrips,music,artandoutofschoolactivities
(1)(5)HMT(2008)EndingChildpoverty:Everybodysbusiness(2)HMT(2008)Dataonhouseholdsbelowaverageincome200506(3)CabinetOffice(2007)ReachingOut:ThinkFamily(4) Schoon,I.(2006).RiskandResilience
89
Familyisalsoanimportantmechanismforprovidingsocialand culturalcapital
Betterofffamiliestypicallyhavegreateraccessto sourcesofstrongsocialcapital,suchasnetworks extendingbeyondtheirimmediatelocality

1 Oddsofachildsthreebestfriendslivinglocallybyindexofmultipledeprivation
Accesstosourcesofinformationarelowerinhomes withchildrenthatqualifyforfreeschoolmeals
3 Percentofchildrenwithaccesstomeansofacquiringinformation
2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0
Childreninmostdeprived areasover1.6timesmore likelytohavethreebest friendslivinglocallythannot
Accessto newspapers Ownbooks
WithoutFSM FSM
Owndesk
Computer
10 20 30 Leastdeprived 40 50 60 70 80 90 Mostdeprivedarea
20
40
60
80
100
Familiesareanimportantsourceofsocialcapital. Middleclassfamiliesmayhavegreateraccessto socialcapitalthanworkingclassfamilies.Middle 2 classfamilies : tendhavemoreextensiveties cangivetheirchildrenmoreaccesstothese networks tendtohavefurtheropportunitiestodevelop networksatuniversityandelsewhere
Culturalcapitalconsistsoffamiliaritywiththedominant cultureinasocietyandespeciallytheabilitytounderstand 4 educatedlanguage Familiesplayakeyroleindisseminatingculturalcapital throughbooksinthehome,consumptionofhighculture 5 andintrafamilydiscussion Culturalcapitalmaybeimportantforchildrenscognitive andmotivationaldevelopment,reflectedinsuchthingsas 6 readingbehaviours

90
(1)Buck,ISER,UniversityofEssex(2)PIU(2001)SocialMobility:aDiscussionPaper(3)NationalLiteracyTrust(2005)(4)(5)(6)Sullivan,CulturalCapitaland EducationalAttainment,NuffieldCollege,Oxford
Drivers Capability Community
Introduction
Supportingcommunitiesinwhichpeoplecandevelop
Outcomesassociatedwithlowsocialmobilityare associatedwithlivingindeprivedareasandbeingin socialhousing Geographicpolarisationbywealthandvariationbetween differentdeprivedareasenhancesthecasefortailored andtargetedinitiatives
Furtherdiscussion
91
Outcomesassociatedwithlowsocialmobilityareassociatedwith livingindeprivedareasandbeinginsocialhousing
Lowerlevelsofeducationalattainmentandlower aspirationsareassociatedwithlivingindeprived areas

Achievementandaspirationlevels,byIncomeDeprivationAffectingChildren Indexquintiles,England
1 PupilsgainingfiveGCSEsA*CincludingmathsandEnglish 2 14yearoldssayingtheywillgoontohighereducation
Workingagesocialtenantsaremorelikelytobe worklessthanpeoplelivinginothersectors
5 Worklessnessratesofgroupsatriskofworklessness,byhousingsector
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Socialsector Nonsocialsector
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Unqualified
Disabled
EthnicMinority
Over50s
LoneParents
Moredeprived areas
Lessdeprived areas
Worklessnessisalsogeographicallyconcentratedand Livinginsocialhousinghasbecomemoreassociatedwith 6 persistent:oftheareasinthehighestdecileof arangeofunfavourableoutcomesinlaterlife 3 worklessnessin1999,85%werestilltherein2005 Socialhousingisconcentratedinthemostdeprived However,between2000and2005,areaswiththehighest areas:51%ofhouseholdsinthe10%mostdeprived 7 JSAandIBclaimantratestendedtoseebiggerthan areasaresocialtenantscomparedto16%elsewhere 4 averagedeclinesinclaimantcounts
(1)IncomeDeprivationAffectingChildrenIndex(2007)(2)LongitudinalStudyofYoungPeopleinEngland(2006)(3)NeighbourhoodRenewalUnit(2005)Makingithappeninneighbourhoods(4) Dorlingetal(2007)Poverty,wealthandplaceinBritain,1968to2005(5)LabourForceSurvey(2006)(6)Feinsteinetal(2007)PublicValueofSocialHousing(7)EnglishHouseConditionSurvey, IndicesofMultipleDeprivation(2004)
92
Geographicpolarisationbywealthandvariationbetween differentdeprivedareasenhancesthecasefortailoredand targetedinitiatives
Thereislittledirectdataontheimpactofareaonsocial However,theremaybesignificantvariationbetweenthe mobility,butpoorandwealthyhouseholdshavebecome economicprospectsofthoseindifferentdeprivedareas 2 Typologyofdeprivedareasbasedon2001censusdata moregeographicallysegregated

Indexofdissimilarity(percentofeachgroupthatwouldhavetomovetoproducean 1 evengeographicdistributionofallgroups),byhouseholdgroup
1980 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Corepoor Breadline poor Nonpoor/ Nonwealthy Asset wealthy Exclusive wealthy 1990 2000
Forallhouseholdgroupssavethecore poor,geographicpolarisationincreased between1980and2000
Gentrifierareasarethosewhichattract moreaffluenthouseholds.Thosemovingin willcomefrombetterareasanddisplace existingresidents,whowillmovetosimilar orpoorerareas Isolateareasaredisconnectedfromthe widerhousingmarket.Thosemovingin andoutwilllargelyberestrictedtosimilar orpoorerareas Escalatorareasarethosetowhich peoplemove,usuallyatthestartoftheir careers,andthenmoveonwardsand upwardstolessdeprivedareasastheir careersdevelop. Transitareasarethosewellconnectedwithbetterhousingmarkets,oftenwith lowerhouseprices.Peoplestayintheseareasforashortwhileuntiltheir prospectshaveimproved.
Groupingsofhouseholdscategorisedbyincome,housingwealth,inheritance taxthresholdsandpotentialtobeexcludedfromparticipating inthenormsof 1 society
Wealthyhouseholdshaveconcentratedintheoutskirtsand 1 surroundsofmajorcities,especiallyLondon
Aspirationsalsovarybetweendifferentdeprivedareas.For example,youngpeopleinnorthern,exindustrialareaswithsettled communitiestendtohaveloweraspirationsthanyoungpeoplein denselypopulatedinnercityareas,withhighlevelsofethnic 3 diversityandpopulationmobility 93
(1)Dorlinget.al.(2007)Poverty,wealthandplaceacrossBritain1968to2005(2)Robsonetal(forthcoming)Atypologyofthefunctionalrolesofdeprived neighbourhoods(3)SocialExclusionTaskForce(forthcoming)Aspirationsandattainmentamongyoungpeopleindeprivedcommunities
Furtherdiscussion
Introduction
Furtherdiscussion
94
Thispaperisintendedtosimulatefurtherdiscussionofallthe issuesraised
Furtherdiscussion
Feedbackontheanalysispresentedinthispaperiswelcome,andshouldbe senttotheStrategyUnitbyemailtosocialmobility@cabinet office.x.gsi.gov.ukorbyposttotheSocialMobilityProject,StrategyUnit, CabinetOffice,Room4.17AdmiraltyArch,London,SW1A2WH ThispaperisaStrategyUnitdiscussionpaperandisnotastatementof Governmentpolicy.Everyefforthasbeenmadetoensureaccuracyandthat thedatausedisthemostrecentavailable.
95

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TheStrategyUnit

Ministerialforeword Executivesummary Introduction Definingsocialmobility Trendsinsocialmobility Driversofsocialmobility Furtherdiscussion

Thispaperaimstodevelopaframeworktoinformfuturepolicy developmentacrossgovernmentinordertoimprovesocial mobility

Socialmobilityhastwocoreaspects: ensuringtherearebetterjobsforeach successivegeneration,soourchildren candobetterthanus. makingsurethattherearefairer chances,sothateveryonehasthe opportunitytoaccessthosejobsin linewiththeirpotential

Thispaperfocusesontwocoreaspectsofsocialmobilityensuringthere arebetterjobsandthatpeoplehavefairerchancestoaccessthosejobs Ensuringtherearebetterjobsinvolvesraisingtheemploymentrateand gettingtheconditionsrighttocreatehigherqualityemploymentintheUK

Thispaperfocusesontwocoreaspectsofsocialmobility ensuringtherearebetterjobsandthatpeoplehavefairer chancestoaccessthosejobs

Fairerchances:withineachgeneration, everyoneisabletorealisetheirpotentialand accessjobopportunities

Higher qualityjobs Middle qualityjobs Lower qualityjobs

Higher qualityjobs Middle Middle qualityjobs

Middle qualityjobs Lower qualityjobs

Ensuringtherearebetterjobsinvolvesraisingtheemployment rateandgettingtheconditionsrighttocreatehigherquality employmentintheUK

Higher qualityjobs Middle qualityjobs Lower qualityjobs

Middle qualityjobs Lower qualityjobs

Ensuringpeoplehavefairerchancesrequiresthateveryoneis capableoffulfillingtheirpotential,withaccesstoafullrangeof jobopportunitiesregardlessoftheirsocialbackground

Upper Higher qualityjobs Middle

Middle qualityjobs Lower qualityjobs

Whilesocialmobilityisdefinedintermsofemployment outcomes,makingtheseoutcomesbetterandfairerwillalso improvemanyotheraspectsofpeopleslives

2.Trendsinsocialmobility a.BetterjobsintheUK b.FairerchancesintheUK c.Internationalcomparisons d.Lookingforward 3.Driversofsocialmobility

Example occupationalclass: Example occupations:

Routine Semiskilledand unskilledmanualworkers Children:

Doctors,lawyers, Foremen, managers skilledmanual Parents: Managerialand professional Intermediate Routine

Parents and children:

Managerialand professional Intermediate Routine

Children: Becomehigherclass thanparents Remainsameclassas parents Becomelowerclass thanparents

Morechildren experienced upwardmobility thandownward mobility,sooverall, thechildreninthis exampleachieved netupwardsocial mobility

Classifyingsuccessivegenerationsintooccupationalclasses suggeststhoseenteringthelabourmarketafterthewarhadan improvedchanceofbeinginabetterjobthantheirparents

2001censusdataisnot available,butsimilar datafrom2000suggests 2 thesetrendscontinued

Manual workers Routinewhite collar Employersand proprietors Managersand Professional

Thesedatashowgroups ofindividualsgrouped togetheraccordingto whentheywereborn

Manual workers Routinewhite collar Employersand proprietors Managersand Professional

Directlycomparingindividualswiththeirfathersshowsthat, sincethe1970s,theproportionofmenwithbetterjobsthantheir fatherwasbasicallythesame

whichhasled,sincethe1970s,totheproportionof menwithbetterjobsthantheirfatherremaining broadlyconstantwhenlookingacrosstheworkforce

Mobility remainedhigh Stepchange inmobility

30 25 20 15 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Thisbroadlyflatupwardmobilityismirroredby flatdownwardmobility(notshown),resultingin flatnetupwardmobility.Notethatblueandred dotsrepresentdifferenttypesofsurveyandare notcomparable

solookingacrosstheworkforce,theproportion withbetterjobscontinuestorise,althoughitislower thanformen

Steadyincreaseinupwardmobility, mirroredbyadeclineindownward mobility(notshown)

Blueandreddotsrepresent differenttypesofsurveyand arenotcomparable

Totalemploymentandtherateofemploymenthavecontinuedto risesincetheearly1990s.Thereisalsosomeevidencethatthe qualityofjobsintheUKisimproving

20,000 15,000 70 10,000 65 60 5,000 0

Ireland France Germany Italy Spain Portugal Greece

2.Trendsinsocialmobility a.BetterjobsintheUK b.FairerchancesintheUK c.Internationalcomparisons d.Lookingforward 3.Driversofsocialmobility

Theseresultsarenotnecessarilycontradictory,asincreasedincome inequalityinthe1980scouldexplainthedifferencebetween measuresthatlookatincomeandoccupation

Fairchancesarefundamentallyaboutpeoplehaving opportunities,butempiricalstudiesusuallymeasuredifferences inoutcomes,whichreflectbothopportunitiesandchoices

OutcomeA OpportunityA OpportunityB OutcomeB

OutcomeA OpportunityA OpportunityB OutcomeB

Trendsinwhetherpeoplehavefairchancestoaccessbetter jobsaregenerallymeasuredbylookingathowoutcomeslike incomeoroccupationarerelatedtosocialbackground

Managerialand professional Intermediate Routine

Perfectmobilityifbothchildrenhavesame chanceofbeingprofessionalsrelativeto beingintermediate

Parentalincomebecameamoreimportantdeterminantof peoplesownincomeforthosebornin1970comparedtothose bornin1958,suggestingchanceshadbecomelessfair

3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0

School Enteringwork Adulthood

1970 cohort Asthesecohortswereeducatedinthe1960s,1970sand1980s, theoutcomesdonotreflectanyofthechangestotheeducation systemoverthepasttwentyyears

Theimmobilityindexrosefrom2.80to2.95showingthat familyincomewasmoreimportantforthosebornin1970 thelatergenerationwaslessmobile

However,theimportanceoffathersoccupationindetermining mensownoccupationappearstohaveremainedbroadly constant

Strippingoutthisgeneralrise,itcannotbeproved thattheimportanceofbackgroundindetermining occupationhaschanged

Redandbluedots representdifferent typesofsurveysoare notcomparable

0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1972

Thesefiguresshowtotal mobilitysummingallthe intergenerational movementsbetween occupationsthatoccurred

Althoughthesefindingssuggestanimprovementin relativemobility(adeclineintheimportanceof background),thisincreaseisnotstatisticallysignificant

Themobilityofwomenishigh,butagainthiscouldbe distortedbythegeneralincreaseinjobqualityofthe last50years

Redandbluedots representdifferent typesofsurveysoare notcomparable