Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6794–6814

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Energy Reports
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/egyr

Research paper

Techno-economic and environmental evaluation of PV/diesel/battery

hybrid energy system using improved dispatch strategy
∗
Ali Saleh Aziz a,b , Mohammad Faridun Naim Tajuddin a , , Tekai Eddine Khalil Zidane a ,
∗
Chun-Lien Su c , , Ali Jawad Kadhim Alrubaie d , Mohammed J. Alwazzan e
a
Faculty of Electrical Engineering Technology, Universiti Malaysia Perlis, Kampus Pauh Putra, 02600 Arau, Perlis, Malaysia
b
Department of Electrical Power Techniques Engineering, Al-Hussain University College, 56001, Karbala, Iraq
c
Department of Electrical Engineering, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung City 807618, Taiwan
d
Department of Medical Instrumentation Engineering Techniques, Al-Mustaqbal University College, Hilla, Babil, Iraq
e
Department of Medical Instrumentation Techniques Engineering, Al-Hussain University College, 56001, Karbala, Iraq

article info a b s t r a c t

Article history: The selection of an appropriate dispatch strategy is considered as a major concern when designing
Received 2 March 2022 hybrid energy system (HES) since it has large effects on the stability, reliability, environmental and
Received in revised form 15 April 2022 economic performance of the system. The cycle charging (CC) strategy is a default dispatch strategy in
Accepted 10 May 2022
HOMER software. However, the main drawback of this strategy is that it uses the resource and load
Available online xxxx
data in the current time step and has no information about the future. This paper aims to investigate
Keywords: the optimum design of an off-grid PV/diesel/battery HES for electrifying a rural area in Iraq. A new
HOMER dispatch strategy which has 12-hour foresight for the load and solar production is developed using
Optimization MATLAB Link module in HOMER software. A comparison between the proposed strategy and default
Hybrid energy systems cycle charging (CC) strategy in HOMER is carried out by considering the technical, economic, and
Dispatch strategy
environmental performance. The results show that the proposed strategy achieves better performance
Forecasting
than CC strategy by having NPC of $4.03M, renewable fraction of 41.3% and CO2 emissions of 851377
kg/year. For the CC strategy, these values are calculated as $4.19M, 33.9% and 957477 kg, respectively.
The sensitivity analysis is also performed to reduce the effect of input parameters on the optimization
results and determine the critical parameters. The research findings can play a crucial role in the
development of more effective energy management systems.
© 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND
license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

1. Introduction in the electricity generation mix is expected to rise up to 30%,

Global warming issue is one of the biggest challenges faced
worldwide. The high utilization of fossil fuels in all sectors is the
main reason for this problem. Climatic conditions are affected by
the release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and
nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ) from the burning of fossil fuels. Reducing
the use of fossil fuels by employing renewable energy sources
(RESs) is an effective solution to overcome the global warming
in the future (Abdul-Wahab et al., 2020). In recent years, RESs
have received considerable attention as an emerging alternative
for fossil fuels in various parts of the world. RESs such as solar
and wind are used to produce electricity without releasing any
emissions (Alturki et al., 2021). In 2021, the production of elec-
tricity from the Photovoltaic (PV) and wind turbines is expected
to increase by 17%, up from 16% in 2020. The share of all RESs
∗ Corresponding authors.
E-mail addresses: faridun@unimap.edu.my (M.F.N. Tajuddin),
cls@nkust.edu.tw (C.-L. Su).
from less than 27% in 2019. This increment is considered the
highest electricity share from RESs since the beginning of the
Industrial Revolution. Fig. 1 shows the global share of different
sources in electricity production between 1971 and 2021 (IEA,
2021). According to the International Renewable Energy Agency,
RESs will provide around 60% of the total global energy demand
by 2050 (Faraji et al., 2020).
Despite the fact that they are fluctuating and limited, a sin-
gle RES can be overcome by utilizing hybrid energy systems
(HESs) (Wesly et al., 2020). In HESs, two or more energy sources
are integrated which can provide more efficient and effective
electricity supply than the individual source. Moreover, they are
capable of reducing the negative effects on the environment since
many of the RESs do not release any emissions. RESs like PV,
hydrokinetic, wind, biomass, and geothermal together with the
conventional generators, energy storages, converters, and power
control components are the common combinations that form the
HES (Beitelmal et al., 2021).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2022.05.021
2352-4847/© 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-
nc-nd/4.0/).
A.S. Aziz, M.F.N. Tajuddin, T.E.K. Zidane et al. Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6794–6814

a major concern when designing hybrid energy system (HES)

Acronyms since it has large effects on the stability, reliability, environmental
CO2 Carbon dioxide and economic performance of the system (Ishraque et al., 2021;
NO2 Nitrogen dioxide Shezan et al., 2021a).
There have been many previous studies on the optimum plan-
RES Renewable energy source
ning and design of HESs using different dispatch control strate-
PV Photovoltaic
gies. In Yousif et al. (2019), the authors applied an operational
HES Hybrid energy system dispatch strategy for different distributed microgrids aiming at
HOMER Hybrid optimization model for electric minimizing the total cost of using a modified particle swarm
renewables optimization (PSO). They concluded that the suggested algorithm
PSO Particle swarm optimization is suitable for all the microgrids proposed in the research and it
SOC State of charge is capable of making effective energy source dispatch scheduling.
CC Cycle charging Bousselamti et al. (2021) used a genetic algorithm to develop dif-
LF Load following ferent dispatch strategies in order to investigate the optimum de-
COE Cost of energy sign of PV-concentrating solar power hybrid configuration, where
NPC Net present cost Midelt city in Morocco was selected as a case study. They found
that the capacity of each component and the configuration of
DC Direct current
the HESs are highly affected by the type of the dispatch strat-
AC Alternating current
egy. Multi-objective economic dispatch strategy for HES which
TAC Total annualized cost
contains battery energy storage system was presented in Man-Im
CRF Capital recovery factor et al. (2020). The authors used a non-dominated improved PSO to
BRC battery replacement cost solve the multi-objective optimization problem. The developed
O&M Operations and maintenance algorithm was found to be effective, efficient, and capable of
CO Carbon monoxide solving the multi-objective optimization problems. The authors in
SO2 Sulfur dioxide Obaro et al. (2018) proposed an energy dispatch and management
NOx Nitrogen oxide strategy of HESs with the aim of optimizing the operational and
UHC Unburned hydrocarbon maintenance cost of the generator using Quasi-Newton method.
PM Particulate matter It was found that compared to the single generator system, the
proposed system is capable of improving the reliability and re-
ducing the daily fuel consumption cost. Ma et al. (2019) proposed
a novel optimal dispatch scheme for PV/wind/battery HESs for
Optimal design of hybrid power system in which the RES is the isolated communities in China by considering vehicle-to-
a part of its components is gaining more attention in recent grid technology using time of use rates. They revealed that the
years. To have low power generation cost, more robust, reliable, suggested method is feasible and effective in enhancing the ab-
and efficient system, the energy management and components sorptions of RESs and reducing the cost of the electricity. In Dai
sizing should be optimally investigated (Ghaffari and Askarzadeh, et al. (2020), the authors developed a multi-level dispatching
2020). Optimization techniques can be applied at any level of the and control strategy aiming at getting the maximum benefits
micro-grid to screen the optimal access scheme where the various from the storage capacity through the storage state of charge
criteria are satisfied. (SOC) management. The proposed approach was found to be an
HOMER is one of the most widely used software in micro-grid effective method to reduce the power mismatch.
systems. The software has been extensively used for the opti- A variety of different dispatch strategy options for HESs could
mum planning and design of standalone or grid-connected HESs. be implemented in HOMER including default dispatch strategies
The optimization process in HOMER is capable of investigating or building a proposed strategy by using MATLAB link mod-
the most cost-effective option for reliable and environmentally ule (Jufri et al., 2021). Cycle charging (CC) dispatch strategy is
friendly hybrid power generation system. HOMER helps the en- one of the most used strategies in HOMER. In this strategy; the
ergy planners to find the most cost-effective, technically feasible generator runs at full capacity and when its output is higher
and lowest carbon emitting scenario. The simulation of the par- than the load, the surplus electricity goes to charge the battery.
ticular energy system is carried out for the whole year, where A set point SOC can be taken into account in this strategy. By
the time step can be set in the range from one minute to several selecting a specified SOC as a set point, the generator continues
hours. All combinations of the modeled system are examined in to charge the battery as long as the set point SOC is not reached.
a single run and the feasible configurations are ranked according The dispatch strategy takes place only when the dispatchable
to the least cost option. The sensitivity analysis can be performed system components (boiler, battery bank, generator, and grid) are
by entering several values for the multiplier variables. In the working together during the same time step (Farret and Simões,
sensitivity analysis, the optimization process is repeated for each 2017).
variable value to investigate the effect of this variable on the op- Several studies have investigated the optimal design of HESs
timum results (Anon, 2020). The architecture of HOMER software under CC strategy using HOMER software. The author in Kumar
is illustrated in Fig. 2 (Beza et al., 2021). (2020) carried out a simulation study to investigate the optimal
Energy management is one of the most critical challenges of combination of a HES consist of PV, diesel generator and battery
the HESs (Hafsi et al., 2022). Controlling the energy production for a case study in India. CC strategy was used to control the
plays a vital role in the performance of the HESs. Unsuitable man- system. The results showed that the proposed HES is capable
agement may cause the system to work outside the safe operating of providing a reliable supplement for the load demand. Hong
range (Zahraoui et al., 2021). A dispatch strategy is a combination and Magararu (2021) used CC strategy for the techno-economic
of rules used to control the operation of the dispatchable compo- optimization of different hybrid generation systems in Taiwan.
nents such as the generator and battery whenever the renewable They concluded that a high renewable portion is linked to a
energy sources are not capable of meeting the load alone. The reduction in carbon emissions, but at a higher cost of the system.
selection of an appropriate dispatch strategy is considered as In Das and Hasan (2021), the author examined the feasibility of
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A.S. Aziz, M.F.N. Tajuddin, T.E.K. Zidane et al.
Fig. 1. Share of different sources in electricity generation between 1971 and 2021.
Fig. 2. Architecture of HOMER software.
different HESs for an off-grid area in Australia. Load following
(LF) and CC strategies are studied and compared with each other.
Their results showed that compared to the LF strategy, the CC
strategy offers better environmental and economic benefits. The
effect of various control strategy including CC, LF and combined
dispatch strategies on the lithium-ion and lead–acid batteries
with different HESs was investigated in Ramesh and Saini (2020).
It was found that the best optimal operational cost is achieved
by using the HES that has lithium-ion battery under combined
dispatch strategy. Azahra et al. (2020) examined the techno-
economic feasibility of an off-grid PV/diesel/battery HES to supply
electricity for an isolated area in Indonesia. The authors found
that the using of CC strategy for the proposed HES results in better
economic performance in comparison with the LF strategy. How-
ever, the LF strategy results in higher renewable fraction than
CC strategy. Sharma and Mishra (2019) designed and proposed
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Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6794–6814
a hybrid optimization model which consists of PV, biomass and
battery under CC strategy to supply electrical power for I.K Gujral
Punjab Technical University in India. They concluded that the HES
is feasible and cost-effective. The optimal configuration of an off-
grid hybrid generation system comprising both conventional and
renewable sources using LF and CC strategies for villas in Turkey
was investigated in Polat and Sekerci (2021). The authors con-
cluded that for the research region, Cost of Energy (COE) and Net
Preset Cost (NPC) are calculated to be lower in the system with
CC strategy than that of LF strategy. The authors in Malanda et al.
(2021) applied CC strategy to explore the technical and economic
feasibility of an off-grid HES which consists of wind turbine,
PV, diesel generator and battery for the electrification of remote
communities in Malawi. It was obvious from their results that the
PV/battery and PV/wind/battery are the optimum HESs. In Kumar
et al. (2018), simulation work was performed to find the optimal
A.S. Aziz, M.F.N. Tajuddin, T.E.K. Zidane et al.
design of different HESs in off-grid and grid-connected systems
for a university campus in India. Both LF and CC strategies are
examined to control the operation of the HESs in all scenarios.
Their results illustrated that PV has the highest share of electric
power generation among the other sources in the all scenarios
for both strategies. The authors in Fofang and Tanyi (2020) im-
plemented a techno-economic analysis of hydro/PV configuration
using LF and CC strategies for a remote rural area in Cameroon.
The CC strategy is found to have lower NPC than LF strategy. In
Rezk et al. (2020), the authors applied LF and CC strategies for
a standalone PV/diesel/battery generation system to electrify a
specific load in Egypt. The system under LF strategy was found
to achieve the best economic performance. Mubaarak et al.
(2020) proposed an off-grid PV/wind/diesel/battery system for
electrifying a province in Yemen using CC strategy. They found
that the suggested HES is economically feasible option for the
selected area. Das et al. (2020) investigated the optimal design of
a grid connected PV/battery HES using both LF and CC strategies
to supply electricity for a commercial load in northern region of
Bangladesh. The results showed that the LF strategy has lower
COE and NPC than CC strategy. Optimal planning and sizing of
a HES to electrify a typical industry in Pakistan using LF and
CC strategies were discussed in Javid et al. (2020). The results
showed that both the strategies are feasible form the techno-
economic and environmental points of view. Soon et al. (2019)
carried out simulation to determine the optimum design of HESs
to provide electricity for a rural village in Malaysia. They used
both LF and CC to control the systems. It was found that the opti-
mal HESs are achieved by using LF strategy. The optimal design of
a PV/wind/diesel/battery using CC strategy to provide electricity
for the library of University of Ilorin in Nigeria was evaluated in
Popoola et al. (2021). The proposed system was found to be better
than the diesel generator system from the techno-economic and
environmental point of view. Table 1 summarizes the reviewed
literature that used HOMER.
The default CC strategy in the literature uses the resource and
load data in the current time step to determine whether to turn
on the generator or discharge the battery. No data about the
future is available in this dispatch. In this situation, the generator
may charge the battery to full SOC in the early hours of the day,
and the RESs produce surplus electricity during the remaining
hours of the day. So, this excess electricity will be lost since it
cannot be stored in the energy storage.
This study presents a modification on the default CC dispatch
strategy of HOMER by forecasting the resource data and load
profile. The developed dispatch algorithm is created by the in-
tegration of HOMER with MATLAB through HOMER-MATLAB link
controller. A PV/diesel/battery HES is proposed to electrify an off-
grid rural area in Al Anbar, Iraq. By using the developed algorithm,
the battery can discharge before the hours in which the fore-
casted PV output exceeds the forecasted load. The objective of
the proposed algorithm is to reduce the NPC while ensuring high
renewable energy share. The techno-economic viability and envi-
ronmental performance is used to compare between the default
CC strategy and the proposed strategy. To the best of the authors’
knowledge, this is the first study that presents a modification
on the default dispatch strategies of HOMER by forecasting the
resource and load profile data.
2. Material and methods
The general procedure to perform the techno-economic and
environmental evaluation of the proposed HES is presented in this
section. Information about the electricity consumption, solar ra-
diation, HES configuration, dispatch strategies and mathematical
models is provided in details.
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Fig. 3. Daily load profile of the selected sit.
2.1. Load profile of the selected area
The suggested area as a case study for this work is a part of
Husaybah sub-district which is located in governorate Al Anbar,
Iraq. It is an isolated area and currently diesel generators are used
to fulfill the demands. The daily load demand of the selected area
is shown in Fig. 3 (Al-akayshee et al., 2021). A daily random vari-
ability of 10% is specified to improve system reliability. The load
factor, peak load, and annual average energy consumption are
estimated at 0.56, 401.66 kW, and 5413 kWh/day, respectively.
2.2. Solar resource
This study used data provided by NASA Surface Meteorology
and Solar Energy (Anon, 2021b). Solar radiation data provide in-
formation about the amount of solar global horizontal irradiance
that strikes with the earth surface in a typical year. Fig. 4 shows
the monthly average solar radiation in the selected area. It is
clear that the region has a high potential for using solar energy.
The monthly average of solar radiation stays quite consistent
and strong over the four seasons. The solar irradiation fluctuated
between 2.36 kWh/m2 /day in January and 8.02 kWh/m2 /day in
June. The daily average solar radiation is 5.06 kWh/m2 .
2.3. Configuration of the HES
The stand-alone hybrid power generation system consists of
PV panels, diesel generator and battery storage. Fig. 5 shows
the schematic diagram of the proposed hybridized system in
this study. Table 2 provides techno-economic details for each
component in the HES.
2.4. System modeling
In this section, the mathematical modeling of PV, diesel gen-
erator, battery, load, and economic models are discussed.
2.4.1. PV modeling
PV works by converting energy from the sun to electric-
ity (Peng et al., 2021). The PV module is connected to a DC bus.
The output DC power of PV is converted to AC power using
inverter (Mosetlhe et al., 2021). In HOMER, the output power of
PV is calculated using the following formula (Aziz et al., 2020;
Rezaei et al., 2021):
(
GT
)
[ ]
PPV −output = PPV −STC fPV 1 + Kp (Tc − TS ) (1)
GT ,STC
where PPV −STC : PV output power at standard test condition [kW].
A.S. Aziz, M.F.N. Tajuddin, T.E.K. Zidane et al. Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6794–6814

Table 1
Summary of studies related to the optimization of HESs using HOMER software.
Reference Location Components Strategy Grid connection Forecasting Performance measures
Kumar Delhi, India PV-wind-diesel-battery CC No No NPC
(2020)
Hong and Different areas, PV-wind-hydro-non CC Yes No NPC, COE, renewable fraction, operating
Magararu Taiwan renewable cost, CO2
(2021)
Das and South Wales, LF, CC No No NPC, CO2 , renewable fraction, fuel
Hasan Australia consumption, battery performance,
(2021) excess power
Ramesh Karnataka, India PV-wind-hydro-diesel- LF, CC No No NPC, COE, CO2 , excess power, capacity
and Saini battery shortage
(2020)
Azahra small island, PV-diesel-battery LF, CC No No NPC, CO2 , renewable fraction, fuel
et al. Indonesia consumption, battery performance,
(2020) excess power
Sharma University campus, PV-biomass-battery CC Yes No NPC, COE
and India
Mishra
(2019)
Polat and Villas, Izmir, Turkey PV-wind-diesel-battery LF, CC No No NPC, emissions, electricity production,
Sekerci fuel consumption, battery performance,
(2021) excess power
Malanda Villages, Malawi PV-wind-diesel-battery CC No No NPC, COE
et al.
(2021)
Kumar University campus, PV-biogas-diesel-battery LF, CC Off-grid, on-grid No NPC, COE
et al. India
(2018)
Fofang and Rural area, Cameroon PV-hydro-battery LF, CC No No NPC, COE
Tanyi
(2020)
Rezk et al. Minya city, Egypt PV-diesel-battery LF, CC No No NPC, COE, emissions, electricity
(2020) Production, fuel consumption, battery
performance, excess power
Mubaarak Taiz province, Yemen PV-wind-diesel-battery CC No NPC, COE, emissions, electricity
et al. Production, renewable fraction, fuel
(2020) consumption,
Das et al. Rajshahi, Bangladesh PV-battery LF, CC Yes No NPC, COE, grid purchases, excess power,
(2020) capacity shortage,
Javid et al. Industry, Faisalabad, PV-diesel-biodiesel- LF, CC No No NPC, COE, Unmet load, capacity
(2020) Pakistan battery shortage, emissions
Soon et al. Rural area, Malaysia PV-hydro-diesel-battery LF, CC No No NPC, COE, electricity production, fuel
(2019) consumption
Popoola University of Ilorin, PV-wind-diesel-battery CC No No NPC, COE, emissions
et al. Nigeria
(2021)
Present Al Anbar, Iraq PV-diesel-battery CC, No Yes NPC, COE, emissions, electricity
study proposed Production, renewable fraction, fuel
strategy consumption, capacity shortage, unmet
load, battery performance

Fig. 4. Monthly average clearness index and solar radiation.

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Fig. 5. Schematic of the hybrid generation system.

Table 2 TC : Temperature of the PV cell in the present timeframe [◦ C].

Specifications of each component in the proposed HES. TS : Temperature of the PV cell at standard test condition
Reference Parameter Value [25 ◦ C].
Mas’ud and Al-Garni (2021) 1. PV The solar forecasting is modeled using HOMER-MATLAB link
Life span 25 years controller. At the starting of every new time step in the simu-
Nominal efficiency 18% lation, HOMER calls Matlab-Dispatch. Matlab-Dispatch contains
Operating 47 ◦ C
variables that are defined by the HOMER Model. The variable
temperature 659.60/kW
Cost of capital $10/kW to model the solar forecasting is ‘‘simulation_parameters.pvs(i).
O&M cost 659.60/kW solar_forecast’’.
Cost of replacement
Anon (2021c) 3. Batteries 2.4.2. Diesel generator
Model Surrette 8 CS 25P Fuel characteristics curve plays a vital role in the performance
Nominal voltage 8 V of the diesel generator in terms of the generation efficiency and
Nominal capacity 9.49 kWh fuel consumption. HOMER assumes that the diesel generator has
Cost of capital $2072 a linear fuel curve with the y-intercept. The following expression
O&M cost $15/year
Cost of replacement $1800
is used to model the fuel consumption in HOMER (Azahra et al.,
2020):
Shezan et al. (2021b) 2. Diesel generator
Life span 15000 h F = Wgen F0 + Pgen F1 (2)
Capital cost $220/kW
O&M cost $0.03/kW/h where Wgen : Generator’s rated capacity [kW].
Cost of replacement $200/kW F0 : Intercept coefficient of the fuel curve [L/hr/kW rated ].
Mekonnen et al. (2021) 4. Converter Pgen : Generator output power at the current time step [kW].
Life span 15 years F1 : Slope of the fuel curve [L/hr/kW output ].
Efficiency 95%
Cost of capital $648/kW 2.4.3. Battery
O&M cost $5.5/kW/year
The battery energy storage system is the most important part
Cost of replacement $598/kW
of the hybrid generation system out of all the components. The
battery SOC varies between any two instants t and t − 1 based
on whether the battery in the charge or discharge mode (Azahra
fPV : PV de-rating factor [%]. et al., 2020). The following formula is used to calculate the SOC
GT : Amount of solar radiation reaching the surface of the PV of the battery (Xia et al., 2021):
panels [kW/m2 ]. ∫ t
ηbat × Lb (t)
GT ,STC : Solar irradiance under standard test condition [1 kW/ SOC (t) = SOC (t − 1) × dt (3)
m2 ]. t −1 Vbus
KP : Temperature coefficient of power [%/◦ C]. where ηbat : Battery efficiency [%].
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Pb (t): Load power of the battery [kW].
Vbus : Bus voltage [volt].
2.4.4. Load prediction
Accurate forecasting of the load plays an essential role in the
management of the HESs. High accuracy of load prediction is of
great significance for safe, economic, stable and reliable operation
of the power system (Fan et al., 2021). Exponential smoothing
is a rule of thumb technique to smooth time series data, de-
veloped based on moving-average model. To predict future peak
load, the exponential smoothing adopts the weighted values of
previous series observations. The recent observations are given
a larger weight while the older data is given progressively-less
relative weight. This is based on the principle that the impact of a
specific variable on the following behaviors are gradually dimin-
ishing (Hammad et al., 2020; Cetin and Yavuz, 2020). HOMER-
MATLAB link is used to model the load forecasting. In the double
exponential smoothing, two smoothing parameters are used to
update the components at each period. The following expressions
are used in the double exponential smoothing (Zaini et al., 2020):
yt +h = at + h.bt (4)
where yt +h : The forecasted value.
at : The value of the intercept (the level at time t).
bt : The value of the slope (the trend at time t).
h: The time horizon.
Parameters at and bt are calculated as follows:
at = ∂.yt + (1 − ∂ ).(at −1 + bt −1 ) (5)
bt = δ.yt + (1 − ∂ ).(at − at −1 ) + (1 − δ ).bt −1 (6)
where ∂ : Data smoothing constant (0 < ∂ < 1).
δ : Trend smoothing constant (0 < δ < 1).
at −1 and bt −1 : The values for these parameters at time t − 1.
2.4.5. Economic model
The economic analysis plays a vital role in the optimum
planning and design of the proposed hybrid energy schemes. In
HOMER software, COE and NPC are used to assess the HESs’ eco-
nomic performance. The NPC of a system refers to the life-cycle
cost and is calculated using the following expressions (Ibrahim
et al., 2020; Alqahtani and Balta-Ozkan, 2021):
TAC
NPC = (7)
CRF (i, Tp )
where TAC : The annualized value of the total NPC [$/year].
i: Real interest rate [%].
Tp : Project lifetime [year].
CRF: Capital recovery factor.
The following expression is used to compute the CRF (Arévalo
et al., 2020):
i(1 + i)n
CRF (i, n) = (8)
(1 + i)n − 1
where n: Number of years
The salvage value is the residual value in the HES components
after the project lifetime is complete. It has a large effect on the
NPC and computed as follows (Aziz et al., 2019a):
Lrem
SC = CR (9)
Lcom
where CR : Replacement cost [$].
Lrem : Remaining life of the component [year].
Tcom : Component lifetime [year].
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The COE is the average cost of the effective power gener-
ated from the HES. It is estimated using the following formula-
tion (Acakpovi et al., 2020; Aziz et al., 2021):
TAC
COE = (10)
Eser v ed
where Eser v ed is the total annual served energy demand [kWh].
2.5. System control
The optimum planning and design of the HES can be carried
out using different dispatch strategies; each one has its own fea-
tures and limitations. In this work, an improved dispatch strategy
is proposed and compared with the default CC strategy of HOMER
for the proposed HES.
2.5.1. CC strategy
Fig. 6 shows the CC dispatch strategy for meeting the electrical
load. Three cases of the system operation are summarized in the
following cases:
• If the PV generation is equal to the electricity demand. Here,
the load is satisfied by the PV power and the generator does
not need to be turned on or discharge the battery. There is
surplus electricity in this case.
• If the electricity demand is met by the PV generation which
still has excess electricity, the battery becomes in charging
mode to store this surplus power.
• If the electricity demand cannot be satisfied by the PV
generation alone, two subcases exist:
– If the battery SOC is lower than the acceptable value,
the generator works as close to its maximum set point,
satisfying the remaining required power which is
known as net load. The battery is in the charging in
this case to absorb the excess power of the generator.
– If the battery SOC is higher than the acceptable value,
two possibilities take place:
∗ The generator works to cover the remaining re-
quired power besides charging the battery if its
output power exceeds the net load and its oper-
ating cost is lower than the cost of discharging the
battery. However, the battery discharges to help
in meeting the net load if the net load cannot be
satisfied by the generator alone.
∗ The battery becomes in discharge mode to meet
the remaining required power if its maximum
discharge power is enough to do so and this
process is cheaper than operating the generator.
However, if the maximum discharge power is not
able to meet the remaining required power, the
generator turns on to help in meeting the net
load.
Each decision cost is explained in the following expressions
(Aziz et al., 2019b):
■ The following formula is utilized to estimate the battery
discharging cost:
Cdisch = Cbatt ,wear + Cbatt ,energy (11)
where Cbatt ,wear : The wear cost of the battery [$/kWh]. It is esti-
mated based on the following expression:
BRC
Cbatt ,wear = √ (12)
Bn Qthrpt ηrt
where BRC : Battery replacement cost [$].
A.S. Aziz, M.F.N. Tajuddin, T.E.K. Zidane et al. Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6794–6814

Fig. 6. CC dispatch strategy for meeting the electrical load.

Bn : Number of batteries in the storage bank. where Cgen,marg : Generator marginal cost [$/kWh] and computed
Qthrpt : Single storage throughput [kWh]. using:
ηrt : Storage round trip efficiency [%].
Fslope Fprice
The following equation is used to calculate the battery energy Cgen,m arg = (16)
cost, Cbatt ,energy [$/kWh] in time step m: ηrt
∑m−1
Ccc ,i where Fslope : Fuel curve slope[L/kWh].
Cbatt ,energy,m = ∑im=−11 (13)
i=1 Ecc ,i
2.5.2. The proposed dispatch strategy
where Ccc ,i : Cost of cycle charging cost in time step i [$]. A new dispatch strategy using MATLAB-link is proposed and
Ecc ,i : Stored energy in time step i [kWh]. compared with default CC strategy in HOMER. It predicts the up-
■ The cost of covering the net load and charging the battery by
coming electric and the coming solar production aiming to reduce
using the generator is computed using the following expression:
the operating costs. The developed dispatch strategy flowchart is
Cgen,ch = Cgen + Ccc − Cbatt ,energy (14) depicted in Fig. 7. The following cases explain each decision in
the strategy:
where Ccc : Cycle charge cost in the current time step and it is
computed using:
• When the predicted excess power in the upcoming 12 h
Ccc = Cgen,m arg + Cbatt ,wear (15) exceeds the upper limit, there are two possibilities:
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A.S. Aziz, M.F.N. Tajuddin, T.E.K. Zidane et al.
Fig. 7. The proposed dispatch strategy for meeting the electrical load.
– If the electricity demand in the current hour is met by
the PV generation which still has excess electricity, the
battery becomes in charging mode to store this surplus
power.
– If the electricity demand cannot be satisfied by the PV
generation alone, two subcases exist:
■ If the battery SOC is lower than the acceptable
value, the generator works as close to its maxi-
mum set point, satisfying the remaining required
power which is known as net load. The battery is
in the charging in this case to absorb the excess
power of the generator.
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■ If the battery SOC is higher than the acceptable
value, two possibilities take place:
◦ If the load can be satisfied by the battery alone,
then the generator would not operate while the
battery discharges to meet the net load demand.
◦ If the maximum discharge power is not capable
of satisfying the remaining required power alone,
the generator turns on to help in meeting the
electricity demand.
• When the predicted excess power is lower than the upper
limit, there are two possibilities:
A.S. Aziz, M.F.N. Tajuddin, T.E.K. Zidane et al.
Fig. 8. One-year energy flow of the PV and diesel generator for (a) CC and (b) proposed strategy.
– If the electricity demand in the current hour is met by
the PV generation which still has excess electricity, the
battery becomes in charging mode to store this surplus
power.
– If the electricity demand cannot be satisfied by the PV
generation alone, two subcases exist:
■ If the battery SOC is lower than the acceptable
value, the generator works as close to its maxi-
mum set point, satisfying the remaining required
power which is known as net load. The battery is
in the charging in this case to absorb the excess
power of the generator.
■ If the battery SOC is higher than the acceptable
value, two possibilities take place:
◦ The generator works to cover the remaining re-
quired power besides charging the battery if its
output power exceeds the net load and its oper-
ating cost is lower than the cost of discharging the
battery. However, the battery discharges to help
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in meeting the net load if the net load cannot be
satisfied by the generator alone.
◦ The battery becomes in discharge mode to meet
the remaining required power if its maximum
discharge power is enough to do so and this
process is cheaper than operating the generator.
However, if the maximum discharge power is not
able to meet the remaining required power, the
generator turns on to help in meeting the net
load.
3. Results and discussion
To obtain comparable simulation results for the project life-
time of 20 years, the performance of the proposed strategy
is compared with CC default strategy from the technical, eco-
nomic and environmental prospective by using HOMER software.
HOMER-MATLAB link which enables the user to create own
strategy is used to build the algorithm of the proposed strategy.
The simulation is carried out using a real interest rate of 4%,
maximum annual capacity shortages of 5% and minimum SOC
A.S. Aziz, M.F.N. Tajuddin, T.E.K. Zidane et al.
Fig. 9. Monthly power generation of the HES under (a) CC strategy and (b) proposed strategy.
of 20%. Furthermore, the price of diesel is set at $0.4/L (Anon,
2021a).
3.1. Optimization results
In the optimization process of HOMER software, several com-
binations of the HES are simulated and the best suited configura-
tion is selected based on the NPC. Consequently, the comparison
between the default CC strategy and the proposed strategy could
be performed based on the optimization results. The optimized
sizing results for each type of dispatch algorithm are presented
in Table 3. It is obvious for the simulation results that the pro-
posed dispatch strategy results in the most effective configura-
tion. The suggested optimal configuration of a PV/diesel/battery
HES with this strategy comprises of 833 kW PV panels, 108
batteries, 180 kW diesel generator, and 334 kW converter. By
using the proposed strategy, the NPC and COE of the optimized
HES are estimated to be $4.03M and $0.152/kWh, respectively.
On the other hand, optimum design of the HES with the CC
strategy consists of 600 kW PV, a diesel generator of 180 kW,
84 batteries, and 268 kW converter. The system yields an NPC of
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Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6794–6814
$4.19M and $0.16/kWh which are 4% and 5.2% higher than those
of systems utilizing the proposed control strategy. This can be
attributed to the fact that the proposed control strategy has a 12 h
forecast and which makes the battery works in an economical
way. Therefore, it reduces the operational cost in comparison
with the CC strategy.
Another important consideration in the economics of the sys-
tem is the payback period (Laajimi and Go, 2021). It is used
to estimate how long the project will take to recoup the funds
invested. The system that has a short payback time is desirable
since a short timeframe is needed to recover the initial cost of the
project. Therefore, the payback period demonstrates the project’s
profitability at the chosen locations. The length of time within
which the nominal cash flow difference line crosses zero is called
a simple payback (Delapedra-Silva et al., 2022). The results show
that the system with the proposed strategy is more attractive
investment with the shorter simple payback period (6.33 years)
than that of the LF strategy (6.94 years). It is important to mention
that the system with lower NPC does not always lead to a shorter
simple payback period.
Renewable fraction is a technical indicator and is defined as
the percentage of RESs which is used in feeding the load. 100%
A.S. Aziz, M.F.N. Tajuddin, T.E.K. Zidane et al.
Fig. 10. Average hourly fuel consumption for each month using different strategies.
Fig. 11. SOC of the HES using (a) CC strategy and (b) proposed strategy.
renewable fraction means that the load is satisfied by the RESs
only whereas 0% renewable fraction means that there is no pen-
etration of RESs and the load is met by the conventional sources
only. The system that has high renewable fraction is likely to be
more environmentally friendly. Therefore, renewable fraction is a
beneficial index. It is worth noticing from the simulation results
that the fraction of renewable energy in the proposed control
strategy is 41.3%, which is higher than the CC strategy (33.9%).
This is because in comparison with the CC strategy, the proposed
strategy has higher PV production and lower diesel generator
production. PV production is evaluated at 891579 kWh/year in
the CC strategy and 1238547 kWh/year in the proposed strategy.
On the other hand, the diesel generator production is 1276699
kWh/year in the CC strategy and 1147561 kWh/year in the pro-
posed strategy. Energy-scheduling scheme for the entire year is
depicted in Fig. 8. It is obvious that the generator working hours
in the CC strategy is higher than that of the proposed strategy.
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This leads to make the CC strategy have higher diesel generator
production than the proposed strategy. It is important to mention
that for both strategies, the peak output power of PV in summer
months is lower than other months. This is mainly due to the high
ambient temperature in summer months which affects the PV
output power negatively. However, the PV still produces power
for longer hours per day in summer in comparison with the
other seasons which is because of the long hours of sunlight
per day. Fig. 9 shows the monthly electric production for the CC
and proposed strategies. Due to the lower share in the HES, a
lower fuel consumption which is estimated to be 325502 L/year
is achieved in the proposed strategy in comparison with the
CC strategy which has a fuel consumption of 366067L/year. The
comparison between the CC, and proposed strategies in terms of
the hourly fuel consumption is depicted in Fig. 10.
The use of battery energy storage to store excess power pro-
duced by RESs and discharge it to the load during periods of RES
A.S. Aziz, M.F.N. Tajuddin, T.E.K. Zidane et al.
Fig. 12. Capacity shortage of the HES using (a) CC strategy and (b) proposed strategy.
output power insufficiency has become a major focus of attention.
The battery can provide technical and economic benefits for the
microgrid when properly optimized. The total amount of energy
that can be delivered from and stored from the battery is called
battery throughput. The battery that has low annual throughput
means it has low charge/discharge cycles and this lead to an
increase in its lifetime. Based on the analysis, it is revealed that
in the CC strategy the battery throughput is 1374 kWh/year
while it is 1189 kWh/year in the proposed strategy. This leads
to lower battery lifetime (2.83 years) in CC strategy compared to
the proposed strategy (3.63 years). Furthermore, it is clear that
the CC strategy utilizes the full capacity range of the battery and
enables for more aggressive charge–discharge rate. Fig. 11 shows
the batteries SOC of the CC and proposed strategies.
The period of time during the power outage in which the
load demand can be satisfied using the battery alone is known
as the battery autonomy (Kraiem et al., 2021). To calculate the
autonomy, the battery bank’s usable nominal capacity (kWh) is
divided by the average primary load (kW). It is an important
parameter for determining the battery performance. The battery
in the proposed strategy is found to have an autonomy of 3.63 h
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Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6794–6814
which is higher than the autonomy of the CC strategy that is
estimated to be 2.83 h.
In the HES, the output power from power sources such as RESs
and conventional sources has the priority to satisfy the load first
and then charge the battery. The remaining electricity is surplus
electrical energy which is needed to be dumped. The excess
electricity represents the wasted power generated by the power
sources. The HES with lower excess electricity has better technical
performance. From the simulation results, it is found that despite
the system configuration in the proposed strategy has higher PV
capacity than the CC strategy, a lower excess electricity (164251
kWh/year) is achieved in the proposed strategy compared to the
CC strategy (175346 kWh/year). This result can be explained by
the verity that the battery in the proposed strategy may discharge
before the hours in which the forecasted PV output exceeds
the forecasted load. Consequently, the self-consumption can be
increased instead of wasting the surplus power.
A shortfall between the required and the actual operating
capacity the HES can deliver is referred to as a capacity shortage.
The performance of the HES is also represented by the capacity
shortage. It is obvious from the simulation results that the capac-
ity shortage of the system with the CC strategy is 4.98% while
A.S. Aziz, M.F.N. Tajuddin, T.E.K. Zidane et al. Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6794–6814

• The fuel cost of the proposed strategy is calculated to be

$1768740.95 which is lower than that of the CC strategy
that has a fuel cost of $1989163.80. This is since the fuel
consumption of the proposed strategy is lower than that of
the CC strategy.
• At the end of the project lifetime, the remaining value of the
components is called a salvage value. The salvage cost is cal-
culated at -$160209.02 in the CC strategy and -$140,057.49
in the proposed strategy.

As mentioned earlier in the paper, COE depends on the annual-

ized cost of the system and the served energy demand. Increasing
the annualized cost leads to increase the COE. While the COE
decreases with the increase of the served energy demand. Fig. 14
shows the annualized cost and served energy demand for CC and
proposed strategies. The results show that the annualized costs of
the CC and proposed strategies are calculated as $308434.1 and
$296553.824, respectively. Furthermore, the served energy de-
mand of the CC and proposed strategies are estimated at 1927713
kWh and 1951012, respectively. The lower annualized cost and
higher served energy demand of the proposed strategy leads to
make the COE of this strategy lower than that of the CC strategy,
as given in Table 3.

3.3. Electrical analysis

To verify the power flow between the different components

and the load, 24 h in July has been selected for the optimized
systems under both dispatch strategies. Figs. 15 and 16 show a
simulating intra-hourly energy oscillation of the HES to meet the
electricity demand for the CC and proposed strategies, respec-
tively. The following points gives details about the hourly energy
Fig. 13. Economic analysis for the HES under with the CC and proposed
strategies.
balance for each strategy:

• CC strategy: Fig. 15 indicates that the generator electricity

it is 2.45% for the system with proposed strategy. Fig. 12 shows
the capacity shortages of the HES for different solar radiation
values under the CC and the proposed strategies. Based on these
results, the proposed strategy achieves better reliability perfor-
mance which is represented by the unmet load in comparison
with the CC strategy. The unmet load is estimated at 44526
kWh/year in the CC strategy and 21227 kWh/year in the proposed
strategy.
3.2. Economy based analysis
In HOMER software, the economic performance for each feasi-
ble HES can be investigated in terms of capital cost, replacement
cost, O&M costs, fuel cost and salvage cost. The economic anal-
ysis for the HES under with the CC and proposed strategies is
presented in Fig. 13. The following points provide comparisons
between CC strategy and the proposed strategy for each cost type:
• The system with the proposed strategy displays higher cap-
ital cost ($1062249.89) compared to that of the CC strategy
($815973.15). This is because of the large components ca-
pacity of PV, battery and converter in the proposed strategy
as compared with those in the CC strategy.
• The CC strategy is found to have higher O&M cost than the
proposed strategy which is mainly due to the high generator
working hours. The O&M cost is estimated at $745440.37 in
the CC strategy and $672064.65 in the proposed strategy.
• The replacements cost is evaluated at $799620.27 in the
CC strategy and $671301.72 in the proposed strategy. This
mainly because of the lower generator replacements and
batteries throughput in the case of the proposed strategy
compared to the CC strategy.
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production exceeds the electricity consumption in the early
morning (between 0:00 and 05:00). Therefore, the generator
meets the electricity demand and the batteries become in
charge mode to store the excess electricity. For the period
between 00:05 and 06:00, PV starts generating energy but it
is not capable of covering the electricity demand. Therefore,
satisfying the electricity demand becomes the responsibility
of both the PV and the generator. The excess energy is used
for charging the batteries. In the next hour, the PV becomes
unable to satisfy the load alone; therefore, the batteries
release electricity aiming to cover the remaining required
power. Then, for the next 8 h (07:00-15:00) PV produces
large amount of electricity which is capable of covering the
electricity demand besides charging the batteries. Between
15:00 and 16:00, the PV becomes incapable of meeting the
load alone. So, the generator works to cover the remain-
ing required power besides charging the battery. The share
of energy to cover the electricity demand from 16:00 to
17:00 comes from various components (PV, generator and
batteries). Between 17:00 and 20:00, the generator works
at maximum capacity with help of the batteries to meet the
electricity demand. The generator operates for satisfying the
electricity demand and charging the batteries by the extra
energy for the rest of the day.
• Proposed strategy: As can be seen in Fig. 16, for the start
of the day (00:00 to 04:00), the batteries release electricity
to cover the demand. This is mainly due to the fact that
in this strategy there is 12 h a head forecasting for the PV
output power and load demand. Since the excess power in
the upcoming hours is high, the batteries discharge to feed
the load. By doing this, the battery would have been able to
capture more of the energy produced by the PV. At 04:00 the
A.S. Aziz, M.F.N. Tajuddin, T.E.K. Zidane et al. Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6794–6814

Fig. 14. Annualized cost and served energy demand for CC and proposed strategies.

Fig. 15. Intra-hourly energy fluctuation of the HES for the CC strategy.

Fig. 16. Intra-hourly energy fluctuation of the HES for the proposed strategy.

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Table 3
Optimization results for PV/diesel/battery HES.
Item Unit
HES components
PV kW
Diesel generator kW
Battery – 84
Converter kW
Economic performance
NPC $ 4.19M
COE $/kWh
Simple payback period Year
Technical performance
Renewable fraction % 33.9
PV production kWh/year
Diesel generator production kWh/year
Fuel consumption L/year
Batteries throughput kWh/battery/year
Battery expected life year
Battery autonomy h 2.83
Excess electricity kWh/year
Capacity shortage % 4.98
Unmet load kWh/year
generator operates for satisfying the electricity demand and
charging the batteries since the SOC reaches their minimum
value. From 05:00 to 06:00, The PV starts generating energy
but it is not capable of covering the electricity demand. So,
the generator remains in the operating mode to help the
PV in meeting the load. From 06:00 to 07:00, the load is
satisfied using the PV and batteries. For the period between
07:00 and 16:00, the PV generates high amount of electricity
which is able to satisfy the load and while batteries becomes
in the charge mode to store the excess electricity. At 16:00,
the PV output becomes incapable of meeting the load. So,
satisfying the electricity demand becomes the responsibility
of both the PV and the generator. The excess energy is used
for charging the batteries. The share of energy to cover
the electricity demand from 17:00 to 18:00 comes from
various components (PV, generator and batteries). Between
18:00 and 20:00, the generator works at maximum capacity
with help of the batteries to meet the electricity demand
since the output power of PV becomes zero. The generator
operates for satisfying the electricity demand and charging
the batteries by the extra energy for the rest of the day.
3.4. Environmental analysis
Emissions of greenhouse gases and global warming are closely
related. A trillion tons of carbon released into the atmosphere can
result in a peak warming of around 2 ◦ C. In the HES that consists
of both RESs and conventional sources, air pollution is primarily
the result of fuel burning in the conventional generator. The
amount of carbon and other related emissions is related to the
amount of fuel consumed by the generator per year (Oladigbolu
et al., 2020; Basi and Mekhilef, 2019).
In the present study, the released emissions from the HES is
the result of burning diesel fuel in the generator. The greenhouse
gas emissions released from the diesel generator are CO2 , carbon
monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2 ), nitrogen oxide (NOx ), un-
burned hydrocarbon (UHC), and particulate matter (PM) (Suman
et al., 2021; Zhang et al., 2020; Akinbomi et al., 2021; Oladigbolu
et al., 2019). The amount of emissions can be mitigated by using a
suitable dispatch strategy. In this regard, a comparison between
the CC strategy and the proposed strategy in terms of released
emissions is carried out and the results are given in Fig. 17. It
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Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6794–6814
CC dispatch Proposed
strategy dispatch strategy
600 833
180 180
108
268 334
4.03M
0.16 0.152
6.94 6.33
41.3
891579 1238547
1276699 1147561
366067 164251
1374 1189
9.66 11.2
3.63
175346 164251
2.45
44526 21227
is obvious from the environmental analysis that CO2 emissions
in the proposed strategy are 851377 kg/year which are lower
than the CO2 in the case of CC strategy that are estimated at
957477 kg/year. The decreases in other released emissions are on
par with the reduction in CO2 emissions. In the proposed strategy,
the annual amount of NOx , PM, CO, SO2 , and UHC emissions are
evaluated at 463, 23.2, 5792, 2086, and 234 kg, respectively. On
the other hand, for CC strategy, these emissions are calculated
as 521, 26.1, 6514, 2346, and 264 kg, respectively. The findings
highlight the effectiveness of the proposed strategy in reducing
the fuel consumption in comparison with the CC strategy.
3.5. Sensitivity analysis
The uncertainty of some critical parameters is one of the major
concerns for the optimal planning and design of HES. A sensitivity
analysis is a method that measures the effect of changing any
technical or economic variable on optimal design of HES. The
sensitivity analysis in this works investigates the effects of the
solar radiations and the average load as technical parameters, and
diesel price and PV capital cost as economic parameters on the
performance of the optimized PV/diesel/battery HES under the
proposed strategy. Figs. 18, 19, 20 and 21 show the results of sen-
sitivity analyses of the optimized PV/diesel/batterysystems with
the proposed strategy by considering −20% and +20%. variations
in each variable.
The efficiency of PV modules depends mainly on the spectrum
and intensity of the incident sunlight. The output power of PV
increases with the increase of the solar radiation. Consequently,
the feasibility of the solar energy in the HES is conditional on
the amount of solar radiation striking the PV panel surface. The
results show that variations of the solar radiations from −20% and
+20% of its base case cause a decrease in the NPC from $4.19M to
$3.92M, COE from $0.158/kWh to $0.147/kWh and CO2 emissions
from 879751 kg/year to 825301 kg/year, while the renewable
fraction increases from 39.2% to 42.9%.
In any HES, the output power of each source depends on
the electricity demand which must be covered at all times. The
electricity generation should increase with the increase of the
electricity consumption. In HOMER, the average load is expressed
in kWh/day. The sensitivity analysis showed that the increment
of the electricity demand from 4330 kWh/day to 6496 kWh/day
leads to increase the NPC by 6.4%, COE by 6.8%, renewable frac-
tion by 20.5% and CO2 emissions by 27.7%. These results can be
A.S. Aziz, M.F.N. Tajuddin, T.E.K. Zidane et al.
Fig. 17. Emissions released from the PV/diesel/battery HES.
explained by the fact that the capacity of the components must
be increased to be capable of satisfying the load demand.
Fuel price has a significant impact on the optimal configura-
tion of the hybrid electricity generation. It is difficult to predict
the future price accurately since it varies from time to time.
Presently, the diesel price in Iraq is estimated to be around
$0.4/L. The variation of the diesel fuel price from $0.32/L to
$0.48/L increases the NPC from $3.68M to $4.38M, COE from
$0.139/kWh to $0.165/kWh and renewable fraction from 37.5%
to 44.2%, while it reduces the CO2 emissions from 871852 kg/year
to 816221 kg/year. The increment of the diesel price reduces the
dependency on the diesel generator and this leads to an increase
in the renewable fraction and a decrease in the CO2 emissions.
The cost that used to purchase and install the components of
the HES at the beginning of the project is called the initial capital
cost. The reputation of the PV manufacturer and the quality of the
panel have great effects on the PV capital cost. The variation of the
PV capital from −20% and +20% of its base case increases the NPC
from $3.92M to $4.14M, COE from $0.147/kWh to $0.156/kWh
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and CO2 emissions from 832494 kg/year to 922883 kg/year, while
it decreases the renewable fraction from 43.5% to 38.7%. The
increment of the PV capital cost makes it an unfavorable option
and this leads to the reduce in the use of PV and hence reducing
the renewable fraction.
3.6. Validation of the proposed prediction model
The performance of the exponential smoothing method is
evaluated for load forecasting using the load data of the selected
area given in Section 2.1. HOMER-MATLAB link is used to model
the load forecasting in order to find the optimal HES configura-
tion. In this section, a validation of the exponential smoothing
prediction model is performed in Python. Fig. 22 presents a com-
parison between the actual and predicted load. It is clear from the
results that the pattern of forecasted electrical load values is quite
close to the pattern of actual electrical load values. Therefore,
the comparative analysis between the actual load curve and the
A.S. Aziz, M.F.N. Tajuddin, T.E.K. Zidane et al.
Fig. 18. Impact of various critical parameters variation on NPC.
Fig. 19. Impact of various critical parameters variation on COE.
predicted values indicates the effectively of the suggested method
for load forecasting.
4. Conclusion
The integration of several forms of energy producing equip-
ment such as RESs, conventional sources and energy storage
systems is referred to as HES. They are increasingly being used to
improve energy efficiency and minimize environmental impacts
through reducing the dependency on the conventional energy
sources. HOMER is one of the most commonly used tools for
the optimal planning and design for the stand-alone and grid-
connected HES. The dispatch strategy is a set of rules that control
the energy flow among the different components in the HES.
Using an appropriate dispatch strategy can lead to more economic
and efficient system. CC is the most widely used default dispatch
strategy in HOMER in which the generator works at full output
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power to feed the load and also charge the batteries with the
surplus power. However, this strategy uses the load and energy
sources data at the present time step and does not predict the
future. The main aim of this research paper is to develop a new
dispatch strategy for off-grid PV/diesel/battery HES to electrify a
rural area in Iraq. The developed strategy in MATLAB link module
provides 12-hour forecasting of the load and solar production.
The performance of the proposed strategy is compared with CC
default strategy from the technical, economic and environmen-
tal prospective. The simulation results reveal that the proposed
strategy achieves better performance than CC strategy from all
points of view. The NPC, COE, renewable fraction and annual
CO2 emissions of the proposed strategy are estimated at $4.03M,
$0.152/kWh, 41.3% and 851377 kg, respectively. In the case of
the CC strategy, they are calculated as $4.19M, $0.16/kWh, 33.9%
and 957477 kg, respectively. The sensitivity analysis show that
the variations in critical parameters such as the solar radiations,
A.S. Aziz, M.F.N. Tajuddin, T.E.K. Zidane et al. Energy Reports 8 (2022) 6794–6814

Fig. 20. Impact of various critical parameters variation on renewable fraction.

Fig. 21. Impact of various critical parameters variation on CO2 emissions.

average load, diesel price and PV capital cost have large effects on Declaration of competing interest
the optimization results. The results suggest that the forecasting
of the energy sources and load profiles is very effective for a
The authors declare that they have no known competing finan-
more efficient, cost effective and environmentally friendly control
cial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared
strategy.
to influence the work reported in this paper.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Acknowledgments
Ali Saleh Aziz: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Val-
idation, Formal analysis, Writing – original draft. Mohammad
Faridun Naim Tajuddin: Supervision, Conceptualization, Method- The authors would like to acknowledge the support from the
ology, Validation, Writing – review & editing. Tekai Eddine Khalil Fundamental Research Grant Scheme (FRGS), Malaysia under a
Zidane: Visualization, Investigation, Writing – review & editing. grant number of FRGS/1/2019/TK07/UNIMAP/03/1 from the Min-
Chun-Lien Su: Writing – review & editing. Ali Jawad Kadhim istry of Higher Education Malaysia. The work of Chun-Lien Su
Alrubaie: Writing – review & editing. Mohammed J. Alwazzan: was funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan
Writing – review & editing. under Grant MOST 110-2221-E-992-044-MY3.
6812
A.S. Aziz, M.F.N. Tajuddin, T.E.K. Zidane et al.
Fig. 22. Comparison between the actual and predicted load.
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