Coronavirus Covid-19 Fact Not Fear

Coronavirus Covid-19
Fact Not Fear
BEFORE YOU DISMANTLE YOUR SOCIETY
YOU SHOULD SEE THIS
* FULL VERSION *
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A FREE CHOICE TO DECONSTRUCT
YOUR SOCIETY IS YOUR PREROGATIVE

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TO DECONSTRUCT YOUR SOCIETY
OUT OF FEAR
IS SOMETHING ELSE ENTIRELY

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We Put CV19 Into Perspective
So That You Can Make
A Calm and Rational Decision

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We’re going to use official sources
typically the World Health Organisation (WHO)
and governmental organisation data

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From January 1st 2020 to March 21st 2020,
approximately the Covid-19 scenario to date,
17 million people have died

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They just didn’t die of a media-focused issue
Overwhelmingly, these deaths were invisible to you
You did not fear them or react badly to them

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11,177 deaths by contrast
have been presented as a massive crisis
and a significant threat to your life

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Is that true?
Let’s look at China where the disease originated
and where the virus has run its course

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From thousands of
new cases a day, with
3000-4500 common,
it is down to around
100 a day or less.
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Of the 27,000 people
who die every day in China
100 currently die from Coronavirus

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Of the 1.386 billion people in China
3276 died (confirmed cases)
from the Coronavirus

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In the same period, 2.5 million Chinese died
from causes which didn’t make the western news

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In the worst hit province, Hubei,
with a population of 59 million
3085 people died from the virus

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In the same period
86,000 people in the Hubei province died
just not from the virus

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67,794 cases in a population of 59.17 million
represents a risk of catching the virus
and showing symptoms at 0.11%

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3085 deaths in a population of 59.17 million
represents a risk of dying from the virus
at 0.005%
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Compare that to ordinary mortality rates
in France by age
(whose data was most readily available)

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Risk of dying from non-virus causes at:

18: 0.02%
45: 0.20%
75: 2.00%
Overall: 0.92%
Data from https://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/data/france/deaths-causes-mortality/mortality-rates-sex-age/#r151
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In the worst hit province of China

at the healthiest age as an adult
you were four times more likely
to die from other causes
than from the virus
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And that disregards that the 0.005%

is an overall rate for all ages.
The actual risk to young people from the virus
was far less than that to old people.
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China CDC has published
the mortality figures by age
for confirmed cases of the virus

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Age 10-39: 0.2% risk of death

40+: 0.4%
50+: 1.3%
60+: 3.6%
70+: 8.0%
80+: 14.8%
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Now factor in that you first have to catch
(or show symptoms) of the virus
to be at risk of death
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Without a specific age breakdown
we will use the uniform 0.11% (0.1149%) risk
of being a confirmed case (67k out of 59m)

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Normal Infect Death Virus Normal

Age Mortality Risk Risk Mortality vs
18 0.02% 0.11% 0.20% 0.0002% 91
45 0.20% 0.11% 0.40% 0.0005% 444
75 2.00% 0.11% 8.00% 0.0092% 218
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We’re considering Hubei

the worst hit province in China,
with 50 to 100 times the cases
of the next four worst hit provinces
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Yet just breathing, being alive, was 91 times more

dangerous for an 18 year old.
Being alive was 444 times more dangerous
for a 45 year old
and 218 times more dangerous for a 75 year old.
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For the five worst hit provinces

with 395 million people
there were 73,929 cases
and 3120 deaths
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That translates to a risk of infection of 0.019%

and a risk of death at 0.0008%
Comparing those to normal mortality by age
we get the following
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Normal Infect Age Virus Normal

Age Mortality Risk Risk Mortality vs
18 0.02% 0.019% 0.20% 0.00004% 526
45 0.20% 0.019% 0.40% 0.00008% 2,632
75 2.00% 0.019% 8.00% 0.00152% 1,316
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For a citizen of the five worst hit provinces in

China, just being alive was between 500 and 2600
times more dangerous than the Coronavirus
infection.
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If the west experiences the virus to match

the worst case that China experienced (Hubei)
ordinary life will be between 90 and 400 times more
dangerous than the virus.
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Yet I do not see societies willingly deconstructing

themselves just because of the high risk of dying in
ordinary life.
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“But it will be different. We’re far more vulnerable.”

“It’s a pandemic. It’s spreading exponentially.”
“Look at Italy.”
Indeed.
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Let’s track the progress of the virus
in the rest of the world
and compare it to the experience in China.

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First observation:
It doesn’t just spread exponentially until it gets
everybody and then we all get sick and die.
If that’s what you’re afraid of,
be careful who you read and listen to.
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It increases ‘exponentially’
then plateaus
then decreases ‘exponentially’
with most (the vast majority) of people
developing no or very slight symptoms.
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Overall it looks a lot
like a lognormal
distribution
with a long tail.
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To explain this it occurred to us to try

a very simple model of the virus.
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A Population starts out ‘untouched’

These are Candidates
for the virus
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A person ‘touched’ by the virus

becomes either a Carrier (no symptoms)
or becomes a Case (develops symptoms)
A small percentage of the Cases die.
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In most people, especially the young,

the immune system does its job
and they experience slight or no symptoms.
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We assigned a probability of 90%

that a person touched by the virus
develops no or slight symptoms
and becomes a carrier.
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10% of people touched

become Cases in that scenario.
The precise figure doesn’t matter.
What matters is the spread of the virus.
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We assigned a factor of 1.25

to the carriers spreading the virus
in each iteration.
Again, as long as the number is greater than zero
the virus will spread.
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A simple spreadsheet
modelled the spread of the virus
until the whole population was touched.
For such a simple model,
the result was remarkable.
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As can be seen,
the model closely
predicted the actual
growth and decay
of the virus in China.
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Notice that it is not ‘social distancing’

which eliminates the disease
but the fact that our immune systems
handle it effectively.
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As more people are touched,

the virus finds fewer people who are
available to touch
and its effectiveness dissipates naturally.
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The worst hit province in China, Hubei,

experienced only 1 in 872 Cases
(people showing symptoms)
before the virus was exhausted.
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How many became Carriers

and how many remained Untouched
would require an extensive testing program
which China may or may not undertake.
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The point is that China showed a rational

and natural progression of the virus
including its early fast growth
and its natural exhaustion.
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We can now track our own progress

in many countries with China
and its provinces as a reference.
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The primary resource for these is

the WHO (World Health Organisation)
and its Coronavirus Situation Reports
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-
coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
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We track cases
by country or
region, mapping
them onto a
logarithmic scale.
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The use of logarithmic scales is natural and

appropriate for geometic progressions
as found in eg: finance or here viral propagation.
The use of linear scales as shown in social media
is misleading and has contributed to the alarm felt.
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A growth progressing at a constant rate will be seen

as a straight line, ascending for +ve growth,
descending for –ve growth and flat for zero growth.
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A growth whose rate is diminishing will curl over,

with the line becoming less steep, until the curve
plateaus, with no further growth.
That applies to the cumulative total charts we will be
showing.
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Notice the steep

climb at left,
decreasing (curling
over) until the
China curve
plateaus.
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Now, what is the rest of the world doing?

These charts have data up to the 23rd March 2020.
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We’ve selected a number of representative countries

of particular interest perhaps to viewers in the US,
UK and Canada, but including a number of others
to reflect the global phenomenon.
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We’ll show all countries, which gets a little crowded,
then we’ll break it down into smaller groups.
Data is as of the 23rd March 2020

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Here we see all 15

countries broadly
following a similar
progress for the
virus.
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Now we’ll look at smaller groups.

The key points to look for are:
gradient (slope)
to evaluate the rate of progress of the virus
and compare it to China
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height to see saturation
how many cases there are compared
to China and Hubei
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curl-over (curvature)
Once the line curls over the crisis is over
The virus progress is diminishing
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Here are some
countries less likely
to be emotive to
viewers in the US
and UK
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Notice how Iran,

Iraq, South Africa
and Russia are all
curling over. Viral
progress is
diminishing.
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Notice how the

angle (climb) at start
is similar to China’s
indicating a similar
rate of progression
to China.
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Iran (green) has

experienced greater
infection pro-rata
than China but less
than Hubei
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Iraq (yellow) is
tapering out below
China and Russia,
South Africa and
Algeria will likely be
at or below China
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There are some critically important things

to realise from looking at these charts.
First:
The virus will diminish naturally of its own accord.
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Second:
Once the line starts to curl over (flatten)
the crisis is over.
The virus progress is diminishing.
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Third:
We can determine the rate of progress by the angle
(gradient) of the line
and compare that to China
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Fourth:
We can determine the severity of the saturation
by the height of the curve vs China or Hubei
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Why it’s important to be able to compare to China

and Hubei is because there the crisis is over entirely
with very few new cases or deaths
We can therefore estimate cases and deaths by
comparison to China’s experience.
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We’ve introduced these countries first also because

Iran, Iraq and Russia have well developed curves
which illustrate that the virus will propagate and
diminish in line with China.
It isn’t mystical. It’s simple math.
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The European selection
plus Thailand are
interesting for a
number of reasons.
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Italy and Norway
show pronounced
curl over indicating that
their experience of the
virus is diminishing.
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Though badly hit,
Italy will be broadly in
line with Hubei, the
worst hit province in
China.
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Norway looks to end up
slightly better off than
Hubei pro-rata, but
worse than China
overall
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The UK and Germany
are ambiguous. The
next two data points (3
days and six days) will
be key.
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Any reduction will not
be due to UK lockdown.
The virus incubates for
5-10 days before
symptoms apparently.
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Certainly the next data
point will not be due to
UK lockdown.
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If the next UK data
point confirms the curl-
over, then the UK went
into lockdown precisely
when the crisis had
peaked
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In which case it would
have diminished
naturally in line with
the rest of the world
without the damage of
the lockdown
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Notice that we have normalised the curves to

represent populations of 100 million so that case-
rates are comparable.
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Recall that ordinary life was far more threatening to

the citizens of Hubei than the virus.
Tracking the curves is useful because once you see
curlover, you know that the worst is over.
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If ‘the worst’ is far less dangerous than ordinary life,

as it has proved to be in the worst infected region of
the world so far, then it will encourage you to
question whether deconstructing your society with
all the distruption and harm is entirely necessary.
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Bear in mind that most of life, illness and death is

invisible to you. If the media attempted to highlight
all deaths and risks as they’ve done with
Coronavirus, they’d be overwhelmed. So would you.
It’s much more convenient to have a single threat.
WMD for example.
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We’re also only tracking the cases here to monitor

the progression of the virus.
For actual threat to life, consider the statistics so far
in the worst-hit region of China.
Ordinary life was far more dangerous.
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The Americas and Israel
are really only getting
started. All curves show
linear progression
similar to China in the
early days.
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The rate seems to be a
little lower, so China
with ‘strict lockdown’
still progressed faster
than other
these countries
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There is a hint of
curlover in all the
charts barring perhaps
the US.
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Israel and the US are
worse than China
overall but seem
unlikely to be worse
than Hubei
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Canada will almost
certainly break through
China overall but seems
unlikely to match Hubei
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In Brazil and Mexico the
virus looks to be
exhausting itself at far
less than even China’s
experience
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It seems strange that the country most focused on

isolation is also the only country whose infection rate
still seems to be sustained at the initial rate.
Or perhaps that isn’t strange at all.
Perhaps delaying the inevitable is just that.
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Overall, before you engage in measures massively

damaging to your livelihoods, your economy and
your liberty, consider carefully what we’ve seen in
these charts and in China’s experience.
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The charts show that China’s experience is not

unique. The data is not “‘false’ and it’s going to be far
worse in Europe and the rest of the world.”
On the contrary, all the curves are broadly in line
with the China and Hubei data.
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If anything, it is the ‘backward’ countries that the

West considers itself superior to that are
experiencing mature curves below the China rate.
The ‘advanced’ countries are at the China rate
heading for the Hubei rate.
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Most important of all:

Fifteen countries all showing broadly similar curves
in shape consistent with China
regardless of their lockdown strategy or lack thereof.
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Put another way:

Think carefully before you allow your politicians
to implement a highly destructive measure to your
livelihood, your economy, your liberty
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Be responsible.
Monitor these figures for yourself.
Bear in mind that you can find these figures in the
WHO situation reports, though they do not provide
graphs currently only data.
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It is also worth noting that if you do not use

logarithmic scales, it will be difficult if not impossible
to interpret the chart accurately.
A dramatically escalating curve as shown on social
media might actually be diminishing (curlover) but
you’ll be hard pressed to recognise that.
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We’ve looked at the outcome in China, where

ordinary life turned out to be far more of a threat to
citizens than the Coronavirus.
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We’ve looked at the rate of progress of the virus in a

number of countries, and seen that curlover is
already present in a number of cases, indicating that
the virus is being exhausted in those countries.
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We’ve noted that the exhaustion of viral

effectiveness is a natural consequence of failing to
find new hosts as the number of touched increases
and the number of untouched decreases.
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We’ve highlighted that it’s your natural immune

system which is massively effective which results in
the exhaustion of the viral propagation.
It does not depend on lockdown or deconstructing
your society.
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If you choose to deconstruct your society, do so as a

free choice to model something better.
Decisions made out of fear and poor analysis
tend to be bad decisions.
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The effectiveness or ineffectiveness of lockdown will

be a matter for statisticians to ponder over long after
the virus is exhausted.
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For the moment, consider the real damage that is

being done to society, to families, to businesses
especially small businesses and compare that to the
reality of the risk as outlined by WHO data and
governmental data on life statistics.
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Since people on social media are determined to find

excuses to ignore common sense and to trust that it
could be far worse than these real charts, let us jump
ahead to a ‘worst case’ scenario.
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We will ignore the possibility of remaining

untouched by the virus or having no symptoms.
Everyone will be a victim of the virus.
What will the death rate and number be then?
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Bear in mind that this figure will be 872 times worse

than was actually experienced by Hubei, the worst
hit region in China.
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It will also be 5 times worse than the figures from

the Diamond Princess, a perfect incubator with air-
conditioning and a closed and crowded population in
close contact with each other
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People were citing the Diamond Princess as a reason

not to trust the China figures.
They were wrong.
Look at the fifteen countries we chose, typically our
home countries or the worst hit in their respective
regions or countries of interest.
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All fifteen
countries are
showing curves
similar to the
China/Hubei curves
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Next time someone tells you not to trust the data, it

will be far worse, tell them to look at the real data in
the real world for every other country but China.
If they want to accuse every other country of lying, it
will be far worse, well…
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China has done us a service by experiencing this and

publishing data which appears to be entirely accurate
and consistent with other countries’ experience.
Yet some would rather punish China and shut down
their own countries rather than look at the facts.
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Fair enough.
Here is that worst case scenario
872 times worse than Hubei
5 times worse than the Diamond Princess
in terms of virus saturation
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If you can handle this number and reflect rationally

on what it means for you and what decisions should
be taken on that basis, then it will be a benchmark
for the likely far less disturbing consequences of the
virus as actually experienced.
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We’ve already stated the China CDC figures for

mortality by age if diagnosed with the virus.
10-39: 0.2% 40+: 0.4%
50+: 1.3% 60+: 3.6%
70+: 8.0% 80+: 14.8%
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Now we need an age distribution: how many people

are of a particular age in our societies.
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The UK ONS (Office Of National Statistics)

provides us with a demographic for the
UK, which can be our representative age
distribution.
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Matching the China CDC risk of death if

diagnosed to the demographic age
groups, we get a weighted average of
2.4% of the population
or around 1.5 million dead.
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1.5 million dead sounds a lot, and it is a lot to an

individual who might encounter barely a few dead
people in their entire lifetime.
However 550,000 people die every year in the UK
and for the most part we don’t notice.
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Bear in mind also that we’re considering:

everyone got the virus
no exceptions
you all got symptoms
so you’re all at risk of dying’.
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Even the Diamond Princess

only experienced 20% exposure
In Hubei it was 1 in 872
We’re looking at a deliberately unrealistic worst case

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It is truly a doomsday scenario because it ignores the

reality that not everyone gets the virus and not
everyone gets sick.
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Yet even in this doomsday scenario it represents less

than three years natural mortality.
Do you want to deconstruct society

because otherwise we’ll go back to 2017?
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Now consider the saturation at levels of the Diamond

Princess, 20% of all people in the UK for example.
Now it’s not 1.5 million dead, but 300,000.
That’s a little over six months of normal mortality.
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Bear in mind also that Italy and other countries have

confirmed that victims have almost entirely been
those with pre-existing conditions.
To be brutal: people at risk of dying are at risk of
dying from the coronavirus if infected.
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Recall that of course we’re all at risk of dying,

and that in the worst hit province of China,
ordinary life was far more dangerous by a factor of
91 (age 18), 444 (age 45) or 218 (age 75)
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How can ordinary life possibly be more dangerous

than the coronavirus?
Well: lung disease, cancer, road deaths, gunshot
wounds, accidents, war, hunger, suicide.
Just a few of the possible reasons.
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Did the media forget to tell you that you’re at risk

from things other than the coronavirus?
Did they forget to tell you that the risk from these
other factors is far higher in reality even for people in
the epicentre, at ground zero of the virus?
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Has the media ever told you that 30,000 Chinese

have died from cancer. Please be scared.
No.
It’s not newsworthy.
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Does the media tell you that 30,000 Americans have

died from cancer. Please be scared.
Maybe.
If it’s a slow news day.
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It isn’t of course 30,000 Americans

dying from cancer.
It’s 599,108.
Here’s the leading causes of death for Americans.

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Leading Causes of US Deaths
Heart disease: 647,457 Alzheimer’s: 121,404
Cancer: 599,108 Diabetes: 83,564
Accidents : 169,936 Flu, pneumonia: 55,672
Respiratory diseases: 160,201 Nephritis: 50,633
Stroke : 146,383 Suicide: 47,173
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm
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Leading Causes of US Deaths
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm
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3000 people dying in China
in a population of 1.3 billion?

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It’s the boogeyman.
It’s going to get you.

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So here’s the
scaled up and down figures
for Coronavirus in the US, UK and Canada
per Hubei and China
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China USA UK Canada

Pop (m) 1,380 323 66 36
Deaths 3,204 750 153 84
Hubei USA UK Canada

Pop (m) 59 323 66 36
Deaths 3,085 16,889 3,451 1,882
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Coronavirus in the US at 16,889 deaths (Hubei levels)
doesn’t even make it to the top ten killers in the US.
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1500 people die every day in Britain, so a Hubei-level

experience would be about 2.5 days worth
of normal deaths.
Deaths that you don’t even notice.
Not unless they’re in the media or it’s someone close
to you or known to you.
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When China has come through the virus with the

eyes of the world on it, and the deaths constitute
just two and a half days’ UK deaths, in a country
nearly 30 times as large, it seems pertinent to ask if
we’re over-reacting.
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And that was written before the UK went into

a martial law/prison regime
lockdown
with critical and medical journeys only
and one session of exercise a day
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Nuclear weapons are real, but WMD turned out to

be an empty threat which justified a war that is still
going on twenty years later.
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What measures will we demand or tolerate now in

our fear that we’ll still be living with twenty years
from now?
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If we want to deconstruct or reconstruct our society

from free will, informed choice and a desire for
change for the better, that is all to the good.
That is our choice.
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If we’re deconstructing our society because we’ve

been told to be afraid and we believe the media,
then that is something else.
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The facts are right there

but the media aren’t reporting them.
They would unscare you.
It’s up to you to be responsible
and do your own fact finding.
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Will you deconstruct society for 2.5 days normal

deaths, that happen to have been a major story in
the media?
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WMD should have been a wake-up call.

Just because you’re told to be afraid doesn’t mean
you should be afraid.
Be a free and responsible citizen.
Free while you can be.
Responsible because you must be.
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Everything I’ve highlighted, you can fact-check.

The WHO Situation Reports are the primary source,
as well as government data sources for population,
age, mortality etc.
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Should you ignore Coronavirus? Of course not.

It’s even more important now to be properly
informed and to research the matter without fear
and to come to balanced and appropriate
conclusions of your own.
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Here’s the WHO
Situation Report
for 21st March 2020.
Look it up.
Make sure I’m telling
the truth.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-
reports/20200321-sitrep-61-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6aa18912_2
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Here’s the figures for Europe.
Now try some simple
arithmetic: 3rd column (total
deaths) divided by 1st
column (confirmed cases).
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Here’s a simple ready-
reckoner.
Knock off two digits.
That’s one percent.
Knock off one digit.
That’s ten percent.
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For Italy, knock off one digit,
4702, that would be 10%
death risk if infected.
At 4032, it’s not far off.
4032/47021 = 8.5%
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8.5% of infected people dying is far worse than

China.
China = 3261/81416 = 4%
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Recall the mortality distribution from China CDC
8% is the risk they found for 70 year olds.
Are the only Italians with CV19 pensioners?

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It gets worse (or better).
Check out Germany.
45 out of 18323 = 0.25%

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Infected Germans are 34 times less likely to die than

infected Italians.
0.25% is about the China CDC risk for age 10-39.

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Is no German over the age of 40 getting the virus?
Norway, 7 out of 1742.

17 would be 1 percent, so less than half a percent.
Better than Italy by a factor of 19 or so.
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It’s not difficult to check these numbers.
And being properly informed is the best antidote to

the fear virus that is being actively pushed right now.
That truly is a pandemic.

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Your immune system is the best defence against the

Coronavirus.
Your brain is the best defence against the fear virus.
Use both, trust both, strengthen both.

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Be informed.
Go to the source (WHO is excellent).
Do your own research.
Form your own opinion.
It’s the right and duty of a
free and responsible person.
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You’re going to die.

That’s just life.
It’s just exceedingly unlikely that Coronavirus is the
thing that’s going to kill you.
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Thank you for listening or watching.

Fact Not Fear
Feel free to get in touch.

andrew@peerlessreads.com
or
andrew@amather.com
Either should get to me.

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Coronavirus Covid-19

Fact Not Fear

BEFORE YOU DISMANTLE YOUR SOCIETY

YOU SHOULD SEE THIS

A FREE CHOICE TO DECONSTRUCT

YOUR SOCIETY IS YOUR PREROGATIVE

TO DECONSTRUCT YOUR SOCIETY

IS SOMETHING ELSE ENTIRELY

We Put CV19 Into Perspective

So That You Can Make

A Calm and Rational Decision

We’re going to use official sources

typically the World Health Organisation (WHO)

and governmental organisation data

From January 1st 2020 to March 21st 2020,

approximately the Covid-19 scenario to date,

17 million people have died

They just didn’t die of a media-focused issue

Overwhelmingly, these deaths were invisible to you

You did not fear them or react badly to them

11,177 deaths by contrast

have been presented as a massive crisis

and a significant threat to your life

Let’s look at China where the disease originated

and where the virus has run its course

Of the 27,000 people

who die every day in China

100 currently die from Coronavirus

Of the 1.386 billion people in China

3276 died (confirmed cases)

from the Coronavirus

In the same period, 2.5 million Chinese died

from causes which didn’t make the western news

In the worst hit province, Hubei,

with a population of 59 million

3085 people died from the virus

In the same period

86,000 people in the Hubei province died

just not from the virus

67,794 cases in a population of 59.17 million

represents a risk of catching the virus

and showing symptoms at 0.11%

3085 deaths in a population of 59.17 million

represents a risk of dying from the virus

Compare that to ordinary mortality rates

(whose data was most readily available)

Risk of dying from non-virus causes at:

In the worst hit province of China

And that disregards that the 0.005%

China CDC has published

the mortality figures by age

for confirmed cases of the virus

Age 10-39: 0.2% risk of death

Now factor in that you first have to catch

(or show symptoms) of the virus

Without a specific age breakdown

we will use the uniform 0.11% (0.1149%) risk

of being a confirmed case (67k out of 59m)

Normal Infect Death Virus Normal

We’re considering Hubei

Yet just breathing, being alive, was 91 times more

For the five worst hit provinces

That translates to a risk of infection of 0.019%