Professional Documents
Culture Documents
au
Types of Risk
Systematic risk
InterestRate Risk
I. Price Risk
2.Reinvestment Rate Risk
Market risk
Inflation Risk (Purchasing Power
Risk)
Unsystematic risk
Business risk
Financial Risk
Operational Risk
C) Unso-bnaticak
1ithapontiencto tal hisk nhich is_pecudiay
thespecijic Todustly
pvotnattect all shastob ahe Coin 6toCk Natg
Sp Speoiichis
Corntoolleolwnby csiogiRAmeakuseooMlepn
ecomPanion
hanA
nbturndaye
S
ONdDiKa
Hoadghis
Aaolghib
moso
.
emishenct
NhexeanashatAavida di
cumstamcb, had
Such ooptimibic',
oe belbngmi ala
H0ADLOJnorioH
aa40 Hlnolgbib
heaAanasaadt opuavida di
Cgeabtke
9msolihoun
OAd
hounOne40atast
xa eMmisicnctt
Bucha
hbsiangeh ha
cphimishHc'
a)
Hig haxKagun hlahuyRAe
tobabiSHDlsau buten
44 ma
expQcHed
hlouo
fakten .
9iololinVD
slelolinb
oCAbt Acaah
foseltdo
Ubefel
fndividuaAxdin
oeliae
bbo
o fasiadion
dHONOH inoday
Chit o
e
AchieyeHih tovets-la eyartd
detesmined Actussn
rpactad Rtusen
Sh
easusKiKRet
somill bnoyd.tbx tE
folio kisk
an Squatienpast
kageassi
in kot d
Btock & Spoex
Nsial Spolex
Masial
Kik,
Kir,
Rota
heta chang
oNe belbengmial
Return Analysis
according to plan.
eater ink
Gretor Poternal reta
Low
Low ns
retarr
F4REPC
you're aware ofyourattitude toward risk. How much you can tolerate depends on many
risk
factors, such as the type of person you are, yourinvestment objectives, the dollar amount of
yourtotal assets, the size
ofyourportfolio, and the time horizon for your investments.
Risk and return trade off:
Investors make investment with the objective of earning some tangible benefit
low.
but may also lead to higher losses
High risks lead to higher potential returns,
Monetary values
risk
MEASUREMENT OF RISK
One cannot predict with certainty as to whether the price of a stoct
whether the price of a stock will or decrease or by how much
go up
change.The reason is that analyst cannot understand and predict the poi
social and economic forces fully to permit his pol
predictions beyond doubt. A
must provide reasonable estimates of returns. Ang
Quantification of risk is
ther
necessary. Thus, risk is associated with the
variability in the likelihood
Outcomes. If the returns of an asset have no variability, it has no risk.
different Ther
ways to measure of
variability returns or the risk associated
asset. Various with
risks can be calculated as follow:
Types of Risk
Behavioural Methods
Quantitativeor Statistical
Methods
1.BEHAVIOURAL METHODS
Various behavioural
methods for
measuring risk are as
follow
Sensitivity or Range
Analysis
Probability Distribution
1.
Sensitivity or
Range Analysis:
are
possible under different Where ditferent returns Irm an
circumstances, more than aset
returns may be made. These one forecast of
returns may the tiafure
likely' and 'pessimistic. The be regarded ias
range of the return is 'optioats
highest rate of return and the
lowest rate of differene between
return (i.e.
Optimistie Return
26 SECURITS RrSK AND RETURN A YSIS ANDET MEsst REEN
to this
PessimisticReturn). According measure, an asset having greater range
aid tobemore risky than one having lesserrange. It can be explained with
help of following example
Suppose two Assets A and B is given. Their respective rate of return 15
below
givenas
ASSET A ASSET B
Cash Outlay 10 Lakh 10 Lakh
Initial
Rate of Return
Pessimistic 12 8
14 14
Most Likely
16 20
Optimistic
4 12
Range (Highest Lowest)
B of returns considered more risky a
Asset having greater range is
to asset A.
compared
:
2. Probability Distribution One of the main limitations
of Range analysis
based upon two extreme values i.e. higher value and lower
value. 1 he
is that it is
use of
With an asset can be measured more accurately by
risk associated
the chances of its
distribution. The probability of an event represents
probability
be kept in
While assigning probability, the following rules must
occurrence.
mind:
The positive outcomes must be mutually exclusive and
between 0 and .
The sum total of probabilitiesmust be equal to 1
of 1, while
is assigned a probability
Ifan outcome Is certain to occur, it
of 0. Thus, a
an impossible outcome
is assigned a probability
can never be greater than or lower than 0, it can never be
I
probability
their
a negativenumber. However, on the basis of their sensitivity,
be valued in between 0 to 1.
probability can
This can be
possible returns multiplied by their respective probabilities.
represented as follow
N
ECR) 2 Pi X Ri
RIERISK AND
RETURN
Where IS AND ITS MEASU REMENT
ANALYSIS
E(R)Expected eturm, 27
Nno. ofpossible
outcomes
Pi-Possibility
o
Following
EXample
example
:
RiRateof
the
associatedwith ith
return fortheith
expected rate of
possible outcomes
possible outcome
P, R,
10
05
30
.20
8 1.40
20
1.60
.30
2.70
10
.10
1.00
.05
0.55
8.05%
Thus, expected average return is
8.05%.
11. STATISTICAL/MATHEMATICAL METHODS
Various statistical methods are as follow
Standard Deviation
Co-efficient of Variations
Regression Equation
4 Beta(B)
Alpha(a)
6. RHO(P)
Standard Deviation: This method is the most common
1.
quantitative
measure the
of companies used this method to
mcasure of risk of an asset. Most for most types
financial risk because
its knowledge permits probabilitystatement
of distribution.
yA:
slt in erationS1ble Variance
Standard ratio af and Stande a=l6
Standard SECURYTY RISK AND
average mean deviation is REIuN ANI YSIS
a AND ITS
Dorttolios. tvalue, an
nd its
measures total
ameasure of
measures riskdispersion atound the
MEASE
REMENT
for expected or
both individual
SD- variation
about assets and
IR expected return. for
E)1P Symbolically
R,RateofReturm
E
-Expected Rate
of Return
For P-Probability
Example: Return
and
Rate of ofassetA
probability
and Bis
ASSET A givenbelow
Return Expected
Deviation
R, (%) Return Std
E(r (R Deviation
Probability
Weighted
Er)) Standard
R-E( Deviation
IStandard
Deviation
10
12
12
12 0.25
Probability
14 0
12 0.50
0
0.25
Standard
Deviation N2 =1.414
Rate of ASSET B
(
Expected Deviation
Return Ri
IR E
Return Std
(%) E(T)
Deviation
Probability
Weighted
(Pi) Standard
IRi
Deviation
Er) IStandard
Deviation
6 12 Probability
36 0.25
12 9
12 0 0 0.50
18 12 36 0.25
18
Standard Deviation V184.243
Asset B is more riskyasits standard deviation is higher than Asset A.
is at eveep
iation
ation
des imitation
its linm
ifs
W has to
it ieve
highe
eks: used of va
stockS; be
steck iont
VarlatioSStandard
ol individual
mdvdial
can co-etno
co-eflie
retrn unit
return unil
ol espeee
of o
of variateon lio per
2 risk
ofrsk
(oeficient
tion
Co-ellicient
caknlation
of porthOo
in hich
n which
risk
porttoli risk
fe torpredetermined
for Deviation
petlolio
otnl eurn
reiirn of
o/ dispersion
Standard
Mean co-ef
eyetedmeasure A and asser
below
relame as ofVariation ofasset
caluiated
example
Co-eflicicnt
in above
as
For Example:
iscalculated 1.4140.I178
0.1178
vartion
A 12
Asset
03
4.245-0.3536
Asset B 12
is another
statistical
Asset
Bismorerisky. Regression
formula:
Equation: following
3.Regressionrisk by using
portfolio
+E
measuring
Y -a+px
period
in a given in verticalaxi
Where from security line crossed
Y Return I where
the
=
a Alpha or
intercept
ofstocks
Beta orslopofregressionin estinmating value
B involved It is un
or error is b or beta.
E =Epsilon of equation
4. Beta (B) :
The most important
part
return and market indeex
return. It shou
chan
between stock against percentage
show the relationship are regressed it shows po
in price of
stock
change and positive. Usually
percentage be negative to market
index. Beta may a movement contrary
market price reflects
stock as well as pot
beta
negative
market beta because both for individual
useful piece of information
provides
it is better
used in analysis ofportfolio.
but as a measure of risk,
section and horizontal
a
5. Alpha (a): The distance between inter
returns an
called alpha. The size
of alpha exhibits stocks unsystematic
average return
independent of market return. If alpha gives positive values
healthy but alpha expected value
sign is zero. The beliefs of many invest
that they can find stocks with positive alpha's and have a profitable ret
out of
portfolio
theory also maintains that the alpha'sof stocks will average
properly diversified
portfolio.
30 SECURTY RISK AND RE1RSAEYSES AND IsMEASE REMMENE
6. RHO (P): Rho is the correlation which
co-efficient describes fhe
dispersion of the obscrvation around the
eficient expresses co-relation
regtssa dics The correlation c0
between two stocks. for and Thee
exanple: 1
correlation co-efticientwould be +1.0 ifan
upward movenset of anotlier secirity
or vicea- versa.If the movement of two
stocks are not m sane direction the
correlation co-cfficient will be
negative. If there was no relatietship bctween the
movement of two stock5, the correlation would be
zero. Fhe correlation cO-
efficient can be calculated in the
following manner
Pij-R-R/ Rxi-Ri
i
Where RxiXth possible return for security i
CONCEPT OF RETURN
MEANING
Return from a venture is concerned with benefit from
that venture. In
securityanalysis, the return is invariably associated with a
percentage and not a
mere amount. T Tic major purpose of investment is to set a return or income on
funds invested. Return on investment
may be because of income, capital
appreciation or positive hedge against inflation. Thus, return on a typical
investment will have two components which are as:
Return
Change in the price of asset wlhich is called capital gain or capital loss
or market price appreciation or depreciation. The second element of
return is the difference between the purchase price and price at which
asset can be sold.
Total Return Income t/- Price Change
SERIY RISK AND RETRN ANALY SSAN 1IS MEAS REMENE
n security analysis, we are concemed with returns from the investor's
perspective. Our main concern is to compute or estimatethe return foran investo
on a particular investment. The investment is
essentially financialassetsay a a
share ora debenture or some other financial
instrumcnt
RATE OERERRN
The return of investment must
refer to a return of particular period of time
To generalizethe retun measurement as
applicable to both fixed income security
and variable income security is measured as a ratio. The rate of return on an
sold
investment for period is defined as follows:-
end- Price
Rate of Return Annual Income+ [Price at at the beginnimglx loo unds
Price at beginning of the
100
year
w
nte
Forexample
Price at
:
following information about equity share
the beginning 500
is given
The
gnity
timal
ofthe year=R sand
Dividend at the end of the year = 25 luale
mum
Price at the end ofthe year =7 600 n that
ch the
+(600- 500)
Rate of return=
500
x 100 25% mder
ole lot
apital
It is helpful to split the rate of return into two components, viz; current yield eto a
and capital gains/losses yield as follows
been
Annual Income Priceat the end- Price at the beginning
Price at the beginning of the year Price at the beginning of the year cision
vidend
Or er tax
Operating Revenue-
Operating Expenses
Earnings before tax (EBT) : It
represents the excess of firm's
revenue and its total total
expenses. It can be calculated
as:
(Operating Incomes +Non Operating
Non Operating
Expenses)
Incomes) (Operating Expenses +
Earnings after tax (EAT): It represents excess
all expenses of all revenues over
and taxes paid by the firm. This
finance useful for approach is
manager while computing the
firms from view profitability of two or more
point of different
persons interested in the firm.
3.Cash Flow
Approach :According to this
business is measured in
approach, the return from a
terms ofcash flows
during a particular generated by due to
it
its
period. This operations
approach is useful for the finance
taking capital manager while
budgeting
SECURIY RISK AND RETURN ANALYSIS AND ITS MEASUREMENT
METHODS OF MEASUREMENT
1he various methods of measurement are as follows
Methods
tion
L TRADITIONAL METHOD
Computation of yield to measure a financial asset's return is the simples
2. Actual Yicld
means return actually earned. Realized return is history
Actual yield can be calculated both for bonds and stock in the
ollowie
manner
SECTRIEY RISK ANn RETLRN AS YS MESt REMENY
maturity peril Y en then can be
Bondst Bonds usally have a
Yield To maturity C M
It
year. Yield
will be
Current Yield= 90/900 10%
actual yields:
cash dividend
Estimated Yield-pected
Current Share Price
Dividend received
Actual Yield
= of Period
Price of the share in the beginning
Famings 3
EPRatio-3/368.33%
P/E Ratio 36/3-12 times
MODERN TECHNIQUES
Various modern techniques are as follow:
one
1. Holding Period Yicld (HPY): Holding period yield is
of ne
in return. This measure appears more rational and clearly
technique measuring
defined. lt servestwopurposes
lt measures the total return per rupee of the original investment.
The holding period yield (HPY) can be used for any An asset can be
asset.
period yield;
Income payment received during the year
+ Capital
change for the period
at the beginning of the year
Price in rupee of original investment
not receve
that an investor may Or may
when there are two or more alternativcs cach
Analyst considcrs
an amount as return, and then uncertainty 18 involved
attachex a preobability
or a reasonable rangc of outcomes and
particularoutcome
ther probabilities is callecd
it. group of possible outcomes, along with
The
to rate of returmsAn
help m predicting possible
probability distribution and
it
15 15% 2.25
E 20 15% 3
12.05%
RISK ON A PORTFOLIO
As the return of the portfolio
is dependent upon the return of ind
1.5
0.30 20 6.0
10.0 10 4.0
0.40
15 0
which
Thus, all possible outcom s are analyzed to determine the amount by
amount.
the value deviates from expected
more
Another measure is standard deviation and variance.
It is slightly
RISK
RA level
FOR EVALUATING
Aproject giving higher
PROPOSAL
rate ofreturn
invoives
its
a
TO
higher
capacity
pacity
MINIMZ
ce ofrisk.
degree
to bear
the risk.
TFo
While
in nind
has to keep
cen8 a project, a firm
criteria
is adopted
3. Apply Benchmarks
that proposal
to
average approach only
Adopt weighted
Prop
oposal
A :
firm will acco
cept
are arranged
according.
having
1. Select the least Risky all proposals The proposal
risk. For this purpose involved.
which has least to risk factors
according those
of risk and ranked and higher
return is accepted. avoid
degree should
of least risk
A firm
first rank
in respect
returns: For example; a proposa
with fluctuatingin the returns. as comparea
Avoid proposal fluctuations be preferred more
which have larger to 14% should
10% the fluctuations
proposals in return from higher
having
fluctuations
from 3% to 25%.Thus,
return
to a project giving in the proposals. determines
dilferent
firm
risk involved mnm119
will be the
: According
to this,
firm may
decide
the
3. Apply Benchmarks risk levels. The
for the proposal
different
not going to accept
below whieh t
standard rates is
return
acceptable
Forexample:
OF RISK EXPECTED RETURN
DEGREE
10%
Low
28%
Mediu
High
44%
40 AND IES MEASUREMEN
RTY RISK AND RETURN ANTYSES
of the
Here, pro
stors
higher rate of
be accepted according to taking ability
risk
QUESTIONS
SHORT ANSWER TYPE
QUESTIONS
.Whatdoyou mean by Risk ? Portfolio
2. Define
Systematic Risk.
3. Explain
Unsystematic risk.
4. Differentiate
Systematic risk and Unsystematic risk.
5. What is Market Risk ?
6. Define Interest
Rate Risk.
7. Define
Financial Risk.