Malaysia’s Upcoming GE15: What Lies Ahead?

19th October 2022, J.P.Morgan: Malaysia Economic Seminar, Grand Hyatt KL

Dr Tricia Yeoh
CEO, IDEAS
The current ● There is no singular party that dominates with an outright
majority. The changes in the dynamics of the parties since
state of the 2018 general election have created a three-way battle in

Malaysian
Peninsular Malaysia between the Barisan Nasional, Pakatan
Harapan and Perikatan Nasional, with BN currently leading

Politics ●
the pack.
As of May 22, the electoral roll listed 21.02 million voters, a
jump of more than 6 million from GE14 due to the lowering
of the voting age and automatic voter registration.
● Although the anti-hopping bill has recently been passed,
there is still a need for a more politically accountable
ecosystem (such as the Political Financing Law)
● There is still a need for greater political literacy in Malaysia
amongst the youth.
● Given the political turbulence of the last few years, there is
now a greater emphasis on political and economic stability.

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How important is GE15 for Malaysian democracy?

● 38% of their respondents were dissatisfied with the

development of democracy in Malaysia (International
Republican Institute, Report on Malaysian Politics,
March 2022
● The upcoming 15th GE is the first nationwide election
with the automatic registration system.
● Therefore, this election is key to setting a base for the
6 million new voters (currently a wild card) and to
somewhat restore a mandate.
● New opposition parties - not a straightforward two-
coalition fight.
Election Year Turnout Rate
● But coalition may not be stable, requiring post-
2018 82.32% / 12.29 million election coalitions and MOU/CSA with smaller parties.
Every seat counts.
2013 84.84% / 11.05 million

2008 75.99%
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 BN: 5 + 1 states
PN: 3 + 1 states
PH: 3 states

● There is an estimated addition of 7.8

million voters in the general election, of
which 5.8 million are new voters aged 18-
1
● New opposition parties - not a
straightforward two-coalition fight
● New government will have a mandate
Barisan Nasional
● But coalition may not be stable, requiring
Perikatan Nasional
States that will likely simultaneously post-election coalitions and MOU/CSA
dissolve with federal GE15: Pakatan Harapan
Perlis Pahang Perak
with smaller parties. Every seat counts.
Subsequent election years:
2023: 6 states; 2025: Sabah; 2026: Melaka & Sarawak; 2027: GE16 & Johor.
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What to Expect?

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 Youth Vote: Main Driving Factors

• Malays and younger voters lean towards leadership (40-44%)

• Chinese voters emphasise on issues and political party.
• Interestingly, issues outweigh political party as a driving factor.
Source: Ibrahim Suffian & Meredith Weiss, Malaysia’s Upcoming Elections: The State of Play (Yale University, 17 October 2022)
Cited with permission

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The Makeup of Malaysian Coalitions at present

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Estimated Party Support (Peninsular Malaysia) as of 4 October 2022

Source: Ibrahim Suffian & Meredith Weiss, Malaysia’s Upcoming Elections: The State of Play (Yale University, 17 October 2022)
Cited with permission

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Relationship between Parties and Coalitions in the upcoming GE-15
Note: Adapted from list by Mashable SE Asia 99
 Likely Policies Adopted by Main Coalitions
Barisan Nasional Perikatan Nasional Pakatan Harapan

● Pro-Malay ● Pro-Malay Muslim ● Multiracial

● Populist ● Populist ● Populist

● Affirmative Action ● Shared Prosperity ● Austerity Measures (?)

● Patronage / Clientelism ● Patronage / Clientelism ● Patronage

● Subsidies ● Subsidies ● Tax Incentives

Economic ● Social Welfare (Cash Aid) ● Covid19 Relief (Cash Aid) ● Affordable Housing
● But might see a return of GST ● Possible return of GST ● Restoring GST – highly
Policies depending on negotiations unlikely

● Mega Projects / Infra ● Trade Agreements ● Carry on existing govt

Developments ● Pro-business trade policies
● Pro-business ● Pro-business

● Semi-rural states (Perak, ● Relatively poorer states ● Rich states (Selangor,

Pahang, Melaka) (Kelantan, Sabah) Penang)

Governance ● Widening ambit of GLCs & ● Anti-Corruption drive ● Institutional Reforms

GLICs
Policies ● Possible pockets of reform 1
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0
Main ● Youth and first-time voters – lack of political
education
Issues at ● Voter turnout

play ●
●
Best case and worst case scenarios
Parties negotiating outside their coalitions?
● Possible variation in federal and state coalitions?
● Leadership position: who becomes Prime Minister?
● Basis and contents of MOU 2.0 (if needed)?
● Long-term fiscal management: Balancing of fiscal
debt and household debt – how “populist” can the
new government afford to be?
● Budget 2023: formation of govt required for new
budget to be passed
● Future: State elections in 2023 and beyond

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 Thank You
tricia@ideas.org.my
www.ideas.org.my