QUEUING AND RELIABILITY THEORY

[MATH712]

Dr. Ritu Gupta

Department of Mathematics, Amity University, Uttar Pradesh

rgupta@amity.edu

MODULE 3: System Reliability Concepts

Distribution Functions and Reliability :-
1. Binomial Distribution: The binomial distribution is one of the
most widely used discrete random variable distributions in reliability
and quality inspection. It has applications in reliability engineering, e.g.,
when one is dealing with a situation in which an event is either a
success or a failure.

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Ex: Suppose in the production of light bulbs, 90% are good. In a
random sample of 20 light bulbs, what is the probability of obtaining
at least 18 good light bulbs?

 Solution: The probability of obtaining 18 or more good light bulbs

in the sample of 20 is

Ans.

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2. Poisson Distribution: Although the Poisson distribution can be used
in a manner similar to the binomial distribution, it is used to deal with
events in which the sample size is unknown.
 This is also a discrete random variable distribution whose pdf is given by

where λ= constant failure rate, x = is the number of events. In other

words, P(X = x) is the probability of exactly x failures occurring in time t.
Therefore, the reliability Poisson distribution, R(k) (the probability of k or
fewer failures) is given by

 This distribution can be used to determine the number of spares

required for the reliability of standby redundant systems during a given
mission.
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 3. Exponential Distribution:
Exponential distribution plays an essential role in reliability
engineering because it has a constant failure rate. This
distribution has been used to model the lifetime of electronic
and electrical components and systems.
If the time to failure is described by an exponential time density
function, then

∞
Using 𝑅 𝑡 = ∫𝑡 𝑓 𝑠 𝑑𝑑 ,

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 The hazard function or failure rate for the exponential
density function is constant, i.e.,

 The failure rate for this distribution is λ, a constant, which

is the main reason for this widely used distribution.
Because of its constant failure rate property, the
exponential is an excellent model for the long flat
“intrinsic failure” portion of the bathtub curve.
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4. Normal Distribution: In reliability engineering, the normal
distribution primarily applies to measurements of product
susceptibility and external stress. This two- parameter distribution
is used to describe systems in which a failure results due to some
wearout effect for many mechanical systems.
 The normal distribution takes the well-known bell shape. This
distribution is symmetrical about the mean and the spread is
measured by variance. The larger the value, the flatter the
distribution. The pdf is given by

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There is no closed form solution for the above equation. However,
tables for the standard normal density function can be used to
𝑇−𝜇
find probabilities for any normal distribution. If 𝑍 = is
𝜎
substituted into the normal pdf, we obtain

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 This is a so-called standard normal pdf, with a mean value
of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. The standardized cdf is
given by

 where ∅ is a standard normal distribution function. Thus,

for a normal random variable T, with mean 𝜇 and standard
deviation 𝜎.

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Ex: A component has a normal distribution of failure times
with 𝜇 = 2000 hours and 𝜎 = 100 hours. Find the reliability
of the component and the hazard function at 1900 hours.
 Solution: The reliability function is related to the
standard normal deviate z by
𝑡−𝜇 𝑡−𝜇
𝑅 𝑇 =𝑃 𝑇>𝑡 =𝑃 𝑍> =1−𝑃 𝑍 ≤
𝜎 𝜎
𝑡−𝜇
𝑅 𝑇 =1−∅
𝜎
1900 − 2000
𝑅 1900 = 𝑃 𝑍 > = 𝑃(𝑧 > −1)
100
From table, we obtain 𝑅 1900 = 1 − ∅ −1 = 0.8413

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 𝑡−𝜇
𝑓(𝑡) ∅ 𝑧=
𝜎
Also hazard function ℎ 𝑡 = =
𝑅(𝑡) 𝜎 𝑅(𝑡)
∅ −1 0.1587
ℎ 1900 = =
𝜎 𝑅(𝑡) 100 × 0.8413

∴ ℎ 1900 = 0.0019 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓/𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐

Ex: A part has a normal distribution of failure times with 𝜇

= 40000 cycles and 𝜎 = 2000 cycles. Find the reliability of
the part at 38000 cycles.
Ans. 0.8413

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