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BEST OF BBC FUTURE | GRAND CHALLENGES

Why ‘hydro-politics’ will shape the 21st Century

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(Image credit: Getty Images)

By Bryan Lufkin 16th June 2017

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It's been called the 'next oil'. In the coming decades, the
supply of water has the potential to influence geopolitics,
diplomacy and even conflict.
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It's time for Bali

Take a break and see what
makes the Island of the Gods so
spectacular.

The 2008 James Bond film Quantum of Solace pits

007 against an evil criminal syndicate bent on
GRAND CHALLENGES
global domination. Sounds par for the course…
but this particular network of baddies isn’t using
In this special series, Future Now lasers or missiles to cause havoc.
takes a close look at the biggest,
No, the Quantum organisation has a uniquely
most important issues we face in
dastardly plan: seizing control of Bolivia’s water
the 21st Century.
supply.
For two months, we'll bring you While the evil syndicate’s role in the film might not
insight from leading scientists, be entirely realistic, this piece of fiction does raise
technologists, entrepreneurs and a scenario that is worth considering seriously: what R E C O M M E N D E D A RT I C L E S
influencers to help you make sense would happen if a country’s water supply was cut
off? What would be the global fallout?
of the challenges we face in today's
rapidly evolving world. Think about it: sure, we need water to survive. But Is 'the end of modern
it also fuels a country’s commerce, trade, medicine' near?
innovation and economic success. This has been
the case for time immemorial, from the Nile in Ancient Egypt to the Amazon
in the Brazilian rainforest. Why you can't be
anonymous anymore
While bodies of water typically help form natural borders of countries,
several nations tend to share access to rivers or lakes – the Nile runs through
nearly a dozen countries alone, for example. Given how conflict-prone How automation will affect
humankind is, it’s surprising there haven't been more dust-ups of a “hydro- you
political” nature.

Bodies of water have always formed natural boundaries between countries, forcing people to figure out ways to share
water peaceably. (Credit: Getty Images)

Experts agree: if there was no access to water, there would be no world

peace. That’s why one of the grand challenges of the next few decades could
be maintaining this ultra-sensitive stasis of water management. In the 21st
Century, freshwater supplies are drying up, climate change is raising sea
levels and altering borders, explosive population growth is straining world
resources, and global hyper-nationalism is testing diplomatic relations.
Meanwhile, water demand is expected to go up 55% between 2000 and
2050. In the coming century, in terms of its value as a global resource, it’s
been described as “the next oil."

So what can we do to guarantee global access to water – and thus global

peace?

World peace hinges on hydro-politics

Water’s role in shaping politics goes back centuries. “In the ancient world,
large bodies of water formed natural boundaries for people and nations,”
says Zenia Tata, executive director of global development and international
expansion at XPrize, an organisation that’s holding a worldwide competition
for innovative water management solutions. “But today’s geopolitical
landscape looks very different,” and access to water remains paramount.

Experts agree: if there was no access to water, there

would be no world peace
In many areas of the world, bodies of water run through several countries or
brush up against many countries’ borders. That’s where something called
"riparian water rights" come into play.

In the case of a river, upstream countries – where the river originates – enjoy
inherent power and leverage over the downstream countries. These kinds of
riparian hotspots abound. And they’re oeen in places that are already
fraught.

In the Middle East, the Jordan River basin is the primary water source for
many regions, including Jordan, Palestine, and Israel, regions of long-
standing political tensions. In Syria, meanwhile, the worst drought in close to
a millennium has been partly blamed for the country’s generation-defining
civil war and radicalisation that led to the formation of so-called Islamic
State.

Egypt and Ethiopia have sparred over development of water from the River
Nile for centuries: the iconic river originates in Ethiopia but ends in Egypt,
which sets up an inherently combative relationship. In 2015, Egypt and
Ethiopia put enough differences aside to construct the Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam on the river, which is Africa’s largest dam and is due to
open in July. The countries also signed a deal that strives to ensure fair river
access.

Tata points to many developed or emerging markets that have had similar
challenges: “Take the example of Malaysia’s 99-year deal with Singapore,
giving them paid access to fresh water from the Johor River,” Tata says.
“Singapore is arguably one of the most progressive nations on our planet,
but without sufficient fresh water resources within its boundaries, all
industry, trade, commerce and culture would all stand still."

The answer might lie in how countries with more food

and water export those supplies to other countries
According to the Pacific Institute, a California-based water resource
information nonprofit, there have been dozens of water-related conflicts
worldwide from 2000BC to present day.

So how do we make sure everyone gets enough water – and thus keep
relative world peace in the 21st Century? The real answer won’t lie in
countries controlling others’ water supply in what’s been dubbed so-called
"water wars" – rather, the answer might lie in how countries with more food
and water export those supplies to other countries.

Droughts and climate change will make water-fuelled diplomacy a crucial exercise in the 21st Century. (Credit: Getty
Images)

Divvying up water supplies

While there have been many “water-related” conflicts over the millennia,
there have actually been very few in terms of sending water over national
boundaries.

There are three main issues when it comes to water in the 21st Century, says
Aaron Wolf. He’s a professor of geography at Oregon State University who
specialises in water resource management and environmental policy.

The first issue is the most obvious: water scarcity. A lack of safe, reliable
water kills as many people worldwide as malaria and HIV/Aids, he says.

The second issue is the political implications of that scarcity. For example, in
Syria, that history-making drought drove more people to cities, saw rising
food prices, and exacerbated tensions in the country that already existed.
They ended up with “climate refugees”, who travel to other countries to seek
places that have better water availability, which may in turn stoke the flames
of political tension.

The third main issue – and perhaps the most underreported, experts say – is
that trans-boundary flow of water. In other words: water moving between
countries. And that’s where those riparian rights come into play.

But here’s the twist – that third part of the puzzle, the hydro-politics, is
actually the part to be most optimistic about, says Wolf, since there have
been so few violent skirmishes over transboundary water flows.

Countries with a water surplus export "virtual water" around the world - water embedded in products like wheat and
meat. (Credit: Getty Images)

The grand challenge: building hydro-diplomacy

Despite alarmist headlines about “water wars”, the 21st Century is still
offering up no shortage of new and unique threats that complicate hydro-
diplomacy more than ever before.

Population explosions, especially in Asia and Africa, strain resources.

Increasing global temperatures have led to some bodies of water drying up.
And rising nationalism worldwide may stymie diplomatic efforts across the
board.

While water presents obvious potential conflict, it could

also accelerate global cooperation
So that’s why at Oregon State University, Wolf helps organise the Program in
Water Conflict Management – where they try to identify where hydro-
diplomatic tensions are going to rise in the next three to five years. For
example, Afghanistan is an upstream country to many nations in the region,
and is trying to use that advantage to develop its economy. For a country
that’s been subjected to decade upon decade of war and upheaval, the
political power of water sources like the Kabul River could be a boon.

That’s why there’s growing academic desire for an increased awareness of

not just hydro-politics, but hydro-diplomacy – that while water presents
obvious potential conflict, it could also accelerate global cooperation.

“We’re building the next generation of hydro-diplomats,” says Wolf.

A solution? Pay farmers more

But amid all these changes in the aqua political landscape, experts urge us to
remember that not all water exists in rivers and lakes and even oceans.

There’s water in the soil – the soil that farmers use to grow vegetables, crops
and feed for livestock. And the water from that soil is transferred into these
products – whether it is wheat or beef – before they get shipped from water-
surplus nations to deficient ones. This is known as “virtual water”, a phrase
coined by John Anthony Allan at King’s College London, whose specialities
include water issues, policy and agriculture. "Virtual water" is going to play a
huge role in the 21st Century.

Governments stay in power by subsidising farmers' livelihoods, and water-deficient countries gladly import the under-
priced food. (Credit: Getty Images)

If you include virtual water in the picture, farmers are managing much of the
water in the supply chain. And in countries that are water deficient, that
imported embedded water is integral. In Europe alone, 40% of this "virtual
water" comes from outside the continent.

Here’s the problem: farmers are underpaid for the critical role in that
transaction. And by the time the food reaches the destination country, its
politicians use subsidies to keep food prices low. The reason? Politicians
want to maintain peace among their people – they want their citizens to live
under the assumption that they’ll be able go to the store and expect food on
the shelves.

160 countries depend on imported food – and the water

needed to make it
“Governments go to great lengths to make sure there is enough affordable
food on the market,” Allan says. “There are forces in places that will bring the
prices down – there’s pressure to keep food cheap."

For water-surplus countries like the United States or Canada, they sell these
products to more water-deficient countries at a low price. Over 60% of the
around 220 countries in the world are major food importers. In other words,
160 countries depend on imported food – and the water needed to make it.

“The world is at peace because we have virtual water trade,” says Allan. “It’s
solved silently. Revealing virtual water trade as a solution is something that
politicians don’t want to do because they want to appear as they’re
managing their country well.”

But in reality, the water that goes into the country's food is being brought in
from elsewhere. That’s why hydro-diplomacy is one of the great unsung
heroes in maintaining global stability that you never hear about.

It’s also why water’s next big challenge isn’t just making sure it’s judiciously
and peaceably managed between nations to accommodate the world’s ever-
burgeoning population. It’s about helping farmers who live in nations that
have lots of water do their jobs successfully, and manage that water and how
it’s distributed to drier places.

Of course countries need low-priced food, especially in places with lower

income citizens. But the public needs to know that imports, exports, and
hydro-diplomacy are what really keep countries with imbalanced water
sources in balance. In our globalised, 21st Century world, it's not just about
where countries fall along the flow of a river. It's about working together to
share Earth's most vital resource.

So while a James Bond-scale water hostage situation isn’t exactly realistic –

there’s nothing unrealistic about needing to maintain worldwide access to
water. Even as we use it to slake our thirst and grow our crops, the political
power of water shouldn’t be forgotten. It's been around for millennia, and it's
not going anywhere.

 --

Bryan LuMin is the editor of Future Now. Follow him on Twitter @bryan_lu*in.

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FUTURE NOW | SHIP

Why container ships probably won't get bigger

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(Image credit: Camille Delbos/Art In All of Us/Getty Images)

By Chris Baraniuk 5th July 2022

ADVERTISEMENT
The biggest container ships ever built ply the world's
oceans, but will physics and economics set some limits to
how much larger these vessels can get?

hen the Ever Ace, one of the largest container ships in the world,

W eased out of Yantian port on 14 August last year and manoeuvred

gingerly into the South China Sea, she had embarked upon a
record-breaking voyage.

To date, no other ship has carried such a large volume of shipping containers
– the equivalent of 21,710 20e (6m) containers.

The 399.9m-long (1,320e) and 61.5m-wide (203e) vessel is a true behemoth,

but there are dozens of container ships of a similar size sailing today. Many
more are currently under construction. Just two of them stacked vertically
would be nearly as tall as the world's tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in
Dubai.

If you cast your eyes over a list of the largest container ships in the world,
you'll soon notice that they are all 400m (1,320e) in length or just less than
that, and about 60m (200e) wide. It is more or less today's upper limit for
these vessels. There is a surprising number of reasons as to why – and also
why you're unlikely to see any container ships much larger than this, perhaps
ever. But what are they?

There are around 5,500 container ships globally and together they are
capable of carrying 25 million TEUs, or the
Continue equivalent of around 25 million
reading
20e (6m) containers. That's if they were all fully loaded at the same moment.

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