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Impact of land use change on prodigious traffic growth towards impeding

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Article · January 2014

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Environ. Ecol. Manage. 2014, 2014:2

ISSN 2051-2945

IMPACT OF LAND USE CHANGE ON PRODIGIOUS TRAFFIC GROWTH

TOWARDS IMPEDING LIVABILITY OF A CITY
M. T. H. SHUBHO AND M. N. NEEMA*

Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Bangladesh University of Engineering and

Technology, Dhaka- 1000, Bangladesh

Abstract: In city's smart roadway system, the effectiveness in accessibility of traffic to various part of the city is

heavily determined particularly by the traffic volume. Hence, traffic congestion in roads significantly impedes

the accessibility, resulting in declining livability. Evidently land use and traffic are inveterately interrelated;

thereby change in land use has deterministic impacts on traffic volume. An overly populous megacity Dhaka is

confronted with escalating traffic volume day by day. In addition, concomitant land use pattern surrounding its

roadways is also changing significantly. Careless unplanned development of land uses in Dhaka city has

resulted in perpetual traffic congestion along with pollution, thereby aggravating its sustainability. In this

context, this paper addresses the impact of land use change on the traffic volume of Dhaka city. We first

identified and quantified the land use and traffic volume change from 2007 to 2012 based on the study route.

Next, we conducted Geographic Information System (GIS)-based assessment on the impact of land use change

on traffic volume and traffic Peak Hour Factor (PHF). Land use and traffic volume data are collected by field

survey and from secondary sources. Analyses are done employing dedicated ArcGIS and spreadsheet tools. The

results show that from 2007 to 2012 the traffic volume in the study route increased on an average by 30.75%.

Furthermore, the PHFs are much lower in 2012 indicating more variation in traffic flow distribution. These

phenomena can be attributed to land use change around the vicinity of the study route where residential and

commercial use increased and mixed use decreased. The obtained results thus have an implication on increasing

congestion and pollution as well as downscaling livability.

Keywords: Livability; Land Use Change; Traffic Volume; Peak Hour Factor; Geographic Information System.

*
Corresponding author
Email address: mnnneema@yahoo.com (M. Neema)
Received September 5, 2013
1
2 M. T. H. SHUBHO, AND M. N. NEEMA

1. Introduction
Ease of traffic circulation is one of the rudiments of livable city. Fast and frequent local

transport in a city’s roadway system makes the city livable and efficient. Reversely traffic

congestion due to increased traffic volume encumbers the accessibility and makes the city

inefficacious. Moreover, increased traffic congestion accelerates air pollution which also

undermines livability [1, 2, 3]. The basic tenet ‘traffic is a function of land use’ [4, 5] clearly

indicates that there is a relationship between land use and traffic volume, recognizing that the

way land is used affects generation and character of traffic on the street and highway network

[6, 7]. However, slapdash development of land uses exacerbates traffic congestion and

concomitant air pollution. Hence, to make a city livable, it is of paramount importance to

integrate transportation planning with land-use planning decisions so that they are

complementary rather than contradictory [8]. Prodigious growth of traffic volume and its

concentration into some specific location are influenced by the surrounding land uses of the

roadways. For instance, increasing commercial activity in the vicinity of a roadway section

can be directly attributed to the morning rush-hour traffic congestion [9, 10, 11]. On the

contrary, rising residential units will induce more traffic flow towards them in the evening

peak [12]. Apart from this, development growth in varied land uses will both attract and

produce traffic in a great amount. On the other hand, roads, transit and other transportation

elements shape land development, while the distribution and types of land uses affect travel

patterns and transportation facilities. A dispersed pattern of low density development relies

almost exclusively on cars as the primary mode for transportation. Alternatively, denser

urban centers can combine different land uses in closer proximity encouraging varied modes

of transportation such as biking, public transit and other forms of travel [13]. Moreover, land

use change has impacts on peak hour factor. Therefore, in future traffic volume, travel pattern,

traffic congestion etc. will change in response to the change in land use.

The traffic volume of Dhaka city is increasing day by day along with the concomitant change

in surrounding land uses of its roadways [14, 15, 16, 17, 18]. There are many reasons for
 IMPACT OF LAND USE CHANGE 3

traffic volume to increase such as population increase, increase in their income level and

standard of living and so on. However, since land use has a significant effect on traffic

volume, it can be inferred that haphazard land use development in Dhaka city is also

responsible for increasing traffic volume and declining livability. A number of studies have

been made abroad which examine the impacts of land use change on traffic [7, 19, 20]. But,

no such study has been performed yet to manifest the impact of land use change on traffic

volume in Dhaka city. In this backdrop, this research is an attempt to investigate the impact

of land use change on traffic volume and peak hour factor. The main objectives of the study

are to quantify land use change surrounding the study route over five years starting from

2007 to 2012, to determine the traffic volume of the study route in 2007 and 2012 and to

investigate the impact of land use change on traffic volume. This analysis will help to

understand the trip generation and attraction and associated land uses in the vicinity of the

roadway system of Dhaka city. From the trend analysis of increasing traffic volume, future

volume can also be predicted. Besides, better and enhanced information on the relationship

between land uses and traffic volume will help to make better decisions that can assist to

reduce traffic congestion, improve air quality, enable safer travel, and lower roadway

infrastructure costs thus rekindle the livability.

2. The Study Route

The Route namely “Bangladesh Bank to Farmgate” can be recognized as a primary route of

Dhaka city in respect of accommodating major bus routes, huge density of traffic and being

designated as an extremely busy corridor. It has a length of 5.76 kilometers. At its one end

there stands Motijheel, which is a Central Business District (CBD) of Dhaka city and at the

other stand there exists Farmgate. The study route within Dhaka City Corporation (DCC) is

shown by Fig 1(a). For the convenience of analysis the route has been divided into five

sections which are delineated by connecting major intersections. These sections are

Bangladesh Bank to Dainik Bangla, Dainik Bangla to Paltan, Paltan to Dhaka Bank Fountain,

Dhaka Bank Fountain to Shahbag and Shahbag to Farmgate. These sections are shown in Fig
4 M. T. H. SHUBHO, AND M. N. NEEMA

1(b). The study route runs through six roads namely Toyenbee Road (Bangladesh Bank to

Dainik Bangla), Purana Paltan Road (Dainik Bangla to Paltan), Topkhana Road (Paltan to

Dhaka Bank Fountain), Captain Monsur Ali Sharani (High Court to Matshya Bhaban),

Bashani Road (Matshya Bhaban to Shahbagh) and Kazi Nazrul Islam Road (Shahbagh to

Farmgate).

3. Materials and Methods

3.1. Data collection

Both secondary and primary data have been collected to accomplish the study. Secondary

data such as digitized map of Dhaka city corporation (DCC) land use of 2007, existing roads

within DCC, google earth satellite image of 2013 and traffic volume data of 2007 have been

used in this study. Traffic volume data on 2007 have been collected from Transportation

Planning Workshop Report, 2007 [21]. Primary data includes the traffic volume and land use

data of 2012. Traffic volume data have been collected by volume survey. Method of manual

counting has been used to conduct the volume survey. The surveyor observed the volume of

traffic along a particular section. In this way, nearly all of the road sections of the selected

route were covered. While doing the volume survey, the surveyor standing at the intersection

counted the vehicles passing the intersection. To get the land use data of 2012, high

resolution google earth satellite image of 2013 has been used as results from field observation

show that there is no significant change in land use within just one year difference. Firstly,

the google satellite image has been projected to the UTM projection system. Then the newly

projected image has been projected to BTM projection system using “Geocentric

Translation”. Then the image has been inputted into ArcGIS to digitize the boundary of land

use of the 0.5 km buffer area. Since land use immediately surrounding a route has the most

influence on the traffic generation and attraction, land use distribution in the vicinity i.e. 0.5

km buffer area from the study route has been considered in the study.
 IMPACT OF LAND USE CHANGE 5

(a) (b)

Figure 1. (a) Study route within DCC area; (b) Defined sections along study route

3.2. Data analysis

Different type of land uses area have been determined using ArcGIS. Traffic flow is
composed of vehicles of different types. In order to analyze traffic operation on a common
basis, traffic volume has been converted into equivalent Passenger Car Unit (PCU) by using
certain equivalency factors, expressed as PCUs per hour. The Passenger Car Equivalent (PCE)
has been used to convert volumes of each vehicle type into PCU’s representing the equivalent
traffic impedance value of each vehicle type based on a value of 1 for the passenger car [22].
The volume of a particular vehicle is converted into PCU for different sections using eqn. 1.

VT = ∑ (Vi × Pi) (1)

where, VT = Volume of a particular vehicle in PCU in a section , Vi = Total volume of a

particular vehicle at different time periods in a section, T = Time periods, Pi = Equivalency
factor/PCE of corresponding vehicle (Table 1)
6 M. T. H. SHUBHO, AND M. N. NEEMA

Table 1. Equivalency factors of different vehicles [22]

Vehicle type Car CNG BUS Rickshaw Motor Cycle

PCE (Pi) 1 0.5 2.5 0.8 0.3

Overall and section wise traffic volume and land use data have been analyzed using ArcGIS
to investigate their relationship. To identify the impact of land use on traffic Peak Hour
Factor (PHF) eqn. 2 has been employed

PHF = V × (4×V15)–1 (2)

where, PHF = Peak Hour Factor, V = Hourly Volume (Volume/hour), V15 = Volume during
the peak 15 minutes of the peak hour (Vehicle/15 min) [23]. PHF variation differs within a
site, from site to site along the route and from day to day as a result of the land uses in the
vicinity of the road system. Lower values of PHF signify greater variability of flow within the
subject hour. Higher values signify less flow variation. Greater variation in traffic flow
indicates development growth in variety of surrounding land uses of the road [19].

4. Results and Discussions

4..1 Land use change around study route from 2007 to 2012
The major land use classes within 0.5 km buffer area around the study route in 2007 and 2012
are shown in Fig 2(a) and 2(b) respectively. In 2007, among the other land uses, maximum
land was occupied by mixed use accounted for 27.12% as shown in Fig 3(a). The commercial
activity was about 10.01% and only 9.98% lands were occupied by residential use. Besides,
13.74% lands were used for transport and communication. Open space and water body was
11.82% and 2.22% respectively. Figure 3(b) shows that in 2012, maximum portion of the
land use is still occupied by mixed use. The second highest occupancy is of residential use
accounted for 16.07%. The commercial activity and open space has changed to 12.63% and
10.58% respectively. No change is identified in other land uses.
 IMPACT OF LAND USE CHANGE 7

(a) (b)

Figure 2. Land use of 0.5 km buffer area around study route in the year (a) 2007 and (b) 2012

Residential units in 2012 around the study route have increased by more than half of the
amount in 2007 accounted for 60.94% as shown in Table 2. From Fig. 2 it is apparent that,
the mixed uses in 2007 have been converted into residential area. Rising residential uses have
peremptorily generated more traffic in 2012. The commercial developers and individuals
have built many residential buildings by demolishing existing mixed use buildings or in
vacant places. Most of the buildings are erected haphazardly and without maintaining set
back rules. Concurrently commercial activity has increased by 26.27% over the five years
which is also indicative of escalating traffic. Institutional uses have also increased by 34.33%
from 2007 to 2012. Commercial buildings are also built along the main road without
maintaining building bye-laws and sometimes encroaching the road. Both education and
research use and recreational use have increased by 5.71% and 3.58% respectively. Reversely,
mixed use and open space have been decreased by 37.08% and 10.46% respectively from
2007 to 2012. An inconsequential decrease has been noticed in restricted area accounted for
only 0.78%.
8 M. T. H. SHUBHO, AND M. N. NEEMA

(a) (b)

Figure 3. Area (%) of different types of land uses within 0.5 km buffer area of the study route
in the year (a) 2007 and (b) 2012

Table 2. Land use change around study route from 2007 to 2012

Increase or Increase or
Land Use Decrease in (%) Land Use Decrease in (%)
From 2007 to 2012 From 2007 to 2012

Commercial Activity 26.27 Recreational 3.58

Education & Research 5.71 Residential 60.9`4

Health – Restricted Area –0.78

Institutional 34.33 Service Activity –

Manufacturing and Transport &

– –
Processing Activity Communication

Mixed Use –37.08 Water Body –

Open Space –10.46

4.2 Impact of land use change on traffic volume from 2007 to 2012
From 2007 to 2012 traffic volume has increased significantly in both directions of the study
route as shown in Fig. 4. To understand the attributes of this increasing traffic volumes,
section wise analyses have been performed (Fig. 5). In Fig. 4, the highest increase in traffic
volume of 2012 is noticed in the section of Dhaka Bank Fountain to Shahbag which is of
more than double of the volume of 2007. This increase can be attributed to the increased
residential areas. Around this section, there was a very little residential use in 2007, whereas
in 2012 residential uses proliferated (Fig 5(d)). Besides, in the section Shahbag to Farmgate
traffic volume has been enumerated the highest. The reason is the rising commercial activity
 IMPACT OF LAND USE CHANGE 9

and residential uses around this section, which attract more traffic in the morning and the
evening hour respectively as found during the traffic volume survey (Fig 5(e)). In rest of the
sections traffic volume has increased by half of the volume of 2007 (Fig 4(a)).

(a) (b)
Figure 4. Traffic volume of 2007 and 2012 in the direction of (a) Bangladesh Bank to
Farmgate and (b) Farmgate to Bangladesh Bank

Similar increase can be noticed in either direction from Farmgate to Bangladesh Bank as
shown in Fig 4(b). In the segment Farmgate to Shahbag, traffic volume increase is somewhat
insignificant; nevertheless the volume is highest of all. Increase of about 70% is noticed in
the section Dainik Bangla to Bangladesh Bank which is attributed to the increasing
residential units in the vicinity of section Bangladesh Bank to Dainik Bangla where Motijheel
CBD exits (Fig. 5(a)).
Land Use
Land Use

Land Use

(a) (b) (c)

Percentage of Land Percentage of Land Percentage of Land

Use Use Use

Land Use
Land Use

(d) (e) (f)

Percentage of Land Percentage of Land

Figure 5. Land use around

Use the section of (a)UseBangladesh Bank to Dainik Bangla, (b) Dainik
Bangla to Paltan, (c) Paltan to Dhaka Bank Fountain, (d) Dhaka Bank Fountain to Shahbag
and (e) Shahbag to Farmgate; (f) Trend of traffic volume change in both direction

Around the CBD, private developers are erecting buildings imprudently in order to attract
people in CBD. During the traffic volume survey it was found that the traffic volume was
highest in this direction at the evening peak hour as people were returning to their home.
10 M. T. H. SHUBHO, AND M. N. NEEMA

Moreover, the commercial activity has also increased which attracted more traffic at both the
morning and the evening in both directions.

In the sections Shahbag to Dhaka Bank Fountain and Paltan to Dainik Bangla, traffic volume
increased to almost one and half of the volume of 2007. In the vicinity of these sections
residential use has increased conspicuously from 2007 to 2012 as manifested by (Fig 5(b), (c)
and (d)). Commercial activity has also increased around these sections. Hence, it can be
inferred that if the traffic volumes continue to increase in this rate, the total traffic volume
will be 18645.94 PCU and 15753.74 PCU in Bangladesh Bank to Farmgate and opposite
direction respectively in 2017 as extrapolated by linear trend analysis (Fig 5(f)). Therefore
the foreseeable results such as increasing traffic jam, air pollution and increased noise level
will downscale the livability in the years ahead.

4.3 Impact of land use change on pick hour factor

The impact of land use change on traffic volume can be directly identified by analyzing
traffic peak hour factor. Consideration of pick flow rates is important in capacity analysis.
The volume may exceed the capacity for a shorter period of time (15 minutes) when vehicles
arrive at a greater rate, even though volume is less than capacity during the full hour. This
can be a severe problem because breakdown of capacity can extend congestion for up to
several hours. The peak hour factors for both 2007 and 2012 have been calculated using eqn.
2. Lower PHF values are indicative of greater variation in traffic volume and conversely,
higher values indicate less variation. The different peak periods associated with each land-use
type affects the stability of the PHF after land-use change. The peak periods of offices and
residential differ with that of commercial developments. While developments with single
land uses showed a fairly stable PHF even after growth in traffic volumes. An increase in
traffic volumes due to development growth, but same land use, will have minimal impact on
the variability of the existing PHF. In this way, the PHFs reflect the relationship between land
use change and traffic volume change.
 IMPACT OF LAND USE CHANGE 11

(a) (b)
Figure 6. PHF in 2007 and 2012 in the direction of (a) Bangladesh Bank to Farmgate and (b)
Farmgate to Bangladesh Bank

Fig 6(a) clearly demonstrates a greater PHFs values in 2007 than 2012 in the direction from
Bangladesh Bank to Farmgate. Therefore, it can be implied that there was a less variability of
flow throughout the study route in 2007. On the contrary, comparatively lower value of PHF
in 2012 indicates greater variation in flow. On an average a drop in the PHF factors in 2012
can be attributed to more traffic volume that is concentrated during a single 15 minute peak.
This scenario infers land development along the route. This land use change induces greater
variation in flow. From the figure another point is noticed that the PHFs are less stable in
2012 than these were in 2007 resulting in different peak flow associated with land use change.
In the direction from Farmgate to Bangladesh Bank similar scenario can be noticed. The
PHFs in 2012 are lower than the PHFs in 2007, as shown in Fig 6(b), which indicates greater
variation in traffic flow in study route in the year of 2012. This variation in turns indicates
development growth along the study route. However, the PHFs in 2012 also are fluctuating
for this direction which indicates development of varied land-use along the route in this
direction.

4.4 Impact of increasing traffic volume on livability

This research is based on a primary route of Dhaka city. However, the resultants are almost
same for all the primary routes in Dhaka. This incessantly increasing traffic volume is
causing traffic congestion. Traffic congestion in the study route and Dhaka city as a whole, is
triggering some ineluctable problems. People going outside are a daily victim of wastage of
valuable times and energy. Excessive vehicle emission from traffic congestion is making trips
miserable causing threat to health. Increasing traffic volume is one of the main reasons of air
pollution in Dhaka city. Sulphur dioxide (SO2), Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), Carbon monoxide
12 M. T. H. SHUBHO, AND M. N. NEEMA

(CO), Carbon dioxide (CO2) and Particulate Matter (PM10) etc. are the main pollutants being
emitted daily from the dense congested traffic [24, 25]. Besides, heat generating from the
congested traffic intensifies suffocative condition for the passengers. All these consequences
indicate impeded efficiency of transportation in the study route and Dhaka’s all other
roadway system. The ultimate upshot is declined livability. This whole phenomenon can be
described by a flow chart shown in Fig 7.

Surrounding Land Use Increase of Traffic

Change from 2007 to Volume from 2007 to
2012 2012

Decreased Increased Congestion in

Accessibility Study Route

Declined Livability Increased Pollution in

Study Route

Figure 7. Impact of land use change on traffic volume towards impeding livability

5. Conclusion
Patently a city’s livability is governed by its convenient and efficient transportation. However,
being a densely populous megacity, Dhaka is struggling to balance between accommodation
of billowing population and upkeep of its livability. Varied types of land uses are found in
this city each of which is unique and has its own propensity to generate trips. This research
examines the impact of land use change in increasing traffic volume thereby decreasing
livability. Analyses of the research divulge that traffic volume of study route in Dhaka city is
affected by its surrounding land use. Over the five years starting from 2007 to 2012,
residential uses in the vicinity of the study route have increased from 10% to 16% and the
mixed uses have decreased from 27% to 17%. Besides, the commercial activity has increased
by more than 2%. Concurrently, the overall traffic volume of the study route in the direction
from Bangladesh Bank to Farmgate has increased by 38%. In either direction, overall traffic
volume has increased by 23.5%. Besides, from the peak hour factor analysis, it is seen that in
both direction of the study route the PHFs are lower in 2012 than the value in 2007 indicating
 IMPACT OF LAND USE CHANGE 13

greater variation in flow in 2012 which is a result of the land uses in the vicinity and traffic
conditions of the road. This increasing traffic volume is the main reason of congestion and
pollution in the study route. The more uncomforting verity is that, traffic situation is
analogous in the other primary routes of Dhaka city. Hence, it can be concluded that,
haphazard and uncontrolled land use development have worsened the traffic situation. Traffic
congestion is increasing and thereby bringing on air pollution, noise and heat problems.
These phenomena have a certain implication that the city’s livability is also declining bit by
bit.

Conflict of Interests
The author declares that there is no conflict of interests.

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