TOPIC 1: INTRODUCTION AND GLOBAL POPULATION TRENDS

WHAT IS DEMOGRAPHY?

It comes from the Greek word demos, which literally means description of the people. It is a
term coined in 1855 by Guillard, although some work on demography had already been done
by the date.

Demography can be defined as “the mathematical knowledge of populations, their general

movements, and their physical, civil, intellectual and moral state” (Guillard, 1855).

A more modern definition includes the study of the determinants and consequences of
population change.

However, essentially, demography deals with everything related to population:

- Size
- Growth or decline
- Processes as fertility, mortality, migration
- Spatial distribution
- Structure (age and gender)
- Characteristics (culture, ethnicity, education, income, occupation, family…)

Demography is a very interdisciplinary topic because it is interconnected with other

disciplines as economics, sociology, anthropology, epidemiology, geography, public health,
biology, ecology, environmental science…

- Perhaps, there is a relationship between female labor participation and fertility.

- Environment might have to do with demography.
- Climate change is sometimes driving migration (climate refugees).

→ In this sense, social institutions and their environment are interrelated with demography.
The relationship between these subjects is usually the object of many investigations in the
field of demography.
The focus of this course is on population, en enduring collectivity àit does not refer to a
particular people.

The emphasis is in understanding aggregate processes, but can also say a lot about our
individual life probabilities: many of the indexes in demography translate aggregate level
processes into statements about demographic circumstances faced by an average or
randomly-chosen individual.

Demography can help us predict...

- When will you most probably marry, have children?

- How often will you move?
- What is your probability of divorce and/or cohabitation?
- What will you die from, most likely?
- How long will you live?
- What will be your retirement age?

BASIC DEMOGRAPHIC EQUATION

The main equation in this course is the following: Pt+1 = Pt + (B-D) +(In – Out)

→ Births-Deaths = natural change

→ In-Out = Net migration
This equation is about knowing the size of the population at point t+1. It can be calculated by
adding to the population in time t the natural change of the population that occurs between t
and t+1 and the net migration.

POPULATION PROCESSES IN SPAIN

Graph of Spain of deaths and births: graph of births and deaths between the 1900s until
today. The largest amount of births and the least of deaths took place in the 1960s (big gap
between births and deaths, coinciding with the baby boom). Nevertheless, the least amount of
births and the highest amount of deaths took place during the Spanish Civil War.

Graph of Spain of net migration(in – out): graph of net migration between 1900s until
today.

In 2013: largest negative net migration, during the crisis. Many Spanish young people left in
order to find jobs, and also many migrant who were here went back into their countries
because they lost their jobs.

Evolution of the Spanish population (number): since 2008, it has increased. Between 2012
till 2015 more or less, it declined and now is growing again.

Population pyramid: Y axis age X total population. We have three graphs.

1st: India. It shows the pyramid of any developing country. Very young age structure and as
we approach higher ages, population declines. High fertility rate.
2nd: US. Relatively old people and stable fertility (high). Barrel-shaped. Replacement level
fertility.
3rd: Spain. More old people. The fertility rate has declined. Below the needed replacement
rate of 2.1 children per woman. In terms of natural change, population is declining. Spain had
not always this shape though.
INTRODUCTION TO GLOBAL POPULATION TRENDS

What is the size of the world population today?Around 7 billion people. More exactly
7.760.367.823 people according to the Current World Population. The population is growing
about 80 million people a year.

What was the size of the population in 1966? 3.4 billion.

And a hundred years ago?1.7 billion.

And ten thousand years before?4 million people, around the size of Madrid.

There has been an exponential change in the past two hundred years or even a bit longer
because before, population growth was stable.

WORLD POPULATION GROWTH: HISTORY, PRESENT AND FUTURE

History of population

We exist since at least 200.000 years. For 95% of our existence, all humans were
hunter-gatherers:

● World population was stagnant at the size of Madrid (4 million). It is no

surprise that the population of the world on the eve of the Agricultural
Revolution 10,000 years ago (8,000 B.C.) is estimated at about four million.
Many people argue that the Agricultural Revolution occurred slowly but
pervasively across the face of the earth precisely because the
 hunting-gathering populations were growing just enough to push the limit of
the carrying capacity of their way of life.
● Extensive source of resources (no agriculture). Since hunting and gathering
use resources extensively rather than intensively, it was natural that over tens
of thousands of years humans would move into the remote corners of the earth
in search of sustenance.
● Nomadic life: moving after land reached limits of carrying capacity
(maximum population size that the environment in a given area can sustain,
given available resources and the way that they used).

Timeline of population since then:

About 10000 years ago (around 8000 B.C.), humans started settling. It took us to a
moderate population growth and it is known as the Neolithic revolution. Sedentary and
agricultural life led to a modest growth. Hunting-gatherer populations were growing just
enough to push the limit of the carrying capacity of their way of life.

Carrying capacity: number of people that can be supported indefinitely in an area given the
available physical resources and the way in which people use those resources (Miller, 2007).

From around 500 B.C. major civilizations in China, India and Greece – 100.000 people
added each year.

From around 300 A.C until the late middle ages (14th century), population growth was very
slow because the Roman Empire disintegrated, among others. In spite of this, the population
grew slowly.

The population collapse due to plagues as Black Death in the 17th century killed 75 to 200
million people in Europe.

1650-1800: doubling population from 500 million to 1 billion.

However, in the last 200 years we have lived a sevenfold increase: from 1 billion in 1800 to 7
billion today.

Population explosion

1804-1927-1960-1974-1987-2000-2011. In every year mentioned, the population has grown 1

billion. The annual growth rate has maintained constant from 1960 until today.
The absolute increase is still rising even though the growth rate is decreasing. It is projected
than in the future, population will grow until reaching 10 billion people in 2061 (the space of
increasing population will be higher because the growth rate is decreasing though). The
population is expected to keep increasing until the end of the century (and become stagnant at
11 billion).

Population projections:

From now, we expect that by 2024 we are 8 billion, by 2040 9 billion and in 2061 10 billion.
In the 2100 we might reach 11 billion people.

Doubling time: number of years required for a population to double in number if the current
rate of growth continues. The doubling time is approximately equal to 69 divided by the
growth rate (in percent per year).

Population projections of the UN Copiar cosas

The black line represents reality and the red part are estimations.

World population growth throughout history

We can see the impact of the black death. We can observe the projections for the future.
WHY WAS EARLY POPULATION GROWTH SLOW?

Nowadays, slow population growth could be related to a decline in fertility rates but, in the
past, it was mainly due to high mortality rates. During the first 99% of human history,
mortality rates were high. In the hunting-gathering phase, life expectancy averaged 20 years.
This was because IMR was very high, which reduced very much the life expectancy, since
age 20 is an age where death is not very likely: you either die during your early years (mainly
during the first one) or you survive to adulthood.

- Fertility rate was very high: the average woman surviving the reproductive years had
to bear nearly 7 children to assure 2 survived to adulthood (net reproduction rate of
one) and ensure that the population would not decrease.
- NRR: average number of daughters that a mother needs to have during her
lifetime to replace a generation.
- Child mortality rate was very high: more than half of children born died before 5.
- Infant mortality is between 0-1 year; child mortality until 5.
- Infanticide plays an important role here, since it was difficult to carry more than one
toddler from one place to another.
- The sedentary life and the higher-density living associated with farming actually
raised death rates by creating sanitation problems and heightening exposure to
communicable diseases.

After the Neolithic Revolution, urbanization brought other causes to be the source of most
deaths: “urban graveyards”, plagues, etc. From this Revolution, diseases became the most
important cause of death because people started to live in urban areas where diseases were
easier to get spreaded.

HOW DID POPULATION GROWTH ACCELERATE?

Mortality declines first in the West....

- From 17th century: combatting of plague, new resistant food crops (potatoes were
important in this sense) were introduced.
- Agricultural and Industrial Revolution from 1750 brought advancements in
agricultural practice and a rise in living standards → more food and better housing
(lower exposure & higher resistance to illnesses).
- Later, huge improvements in medical knowledge (e.g. spread of germs theory of
disease) and public health, especially vaccination programs from 1900s (governments
as the US introduced compulsory vaccination programs)
… and since WWII, also in the rest of the world declined mortality rates as well as wealth
began to rise. However, fertility did not immediately decline, which means that all future
world population growth will originate in developing countries.

“Clear relationship between wealth and longevity”.

Relationship between mortality and wealth in history: Hans Rosling’s video

Poor and sick - rich and healthy.

In 1810: life expectancy was below 40, except in the UK and Netherlands that was a little
better. The Industrial Revolution in Europe made the Western countries healthier, remaining
the Asian countries in the past situation. However, the WWI and the Spanish flu provoked a
catastrophe. In 1948 the differences among the countries in the world was huge.

When former colonies become independent, they started to become healthier and wealthier,
catching up with the Western countries.

Most people live in the middle of wealth and health, but there are a lot of differences today,
high disparities (between countries and regions within that countries). Possibly, thanks to
technology and advances, the world might converge in terms of health.

In which continent are the countries with the lowest life expectancy and why? In Africa,
because of wealth, inequality, diseases, war...

GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION: HISTORY, PRESENT AND FUTURE

How is the world population distributed?

Clearly, the population is unevenly distributed. Some of the largest countries (top 6) are:
China, Indonesia, India, Pakistan, US and Brazil. The five largest in the world account for
nearly half of the world’s population (48 percent as of the year 2006) but only representing a
21 percent of the world’s land surface.

Around 60% of the world’s population lives in Asia. Today, there is more people living inside
of this circle (China, India, Pakistan, Indonesia) than outside it. So, we can say that the
population is unevenly distributed.

Another way to look at the distribution is to look at the light intensity, although it is usually
used a sign of development. We can see again that population is concentrated in the Southern
part of Asia.
→ Indonesia is the most populated island space, being Japan also highly populated.
→ Europe, America and Africa have more or less the same population, while the smaller
share is located in Oceania.
→ Remind: 60% world’s population in Asia.

How did we get here?

In the last column of the graph, we can observe the distribution of the population in the
1990s: 60% in Asia, and the rest (40%) equitatively distributed among Africa, Europe and
America, having Oceania much smaller rates.

However, we observe changes in the distribution from 1500 to 1800 in the case of America,
which is caused by the Columbian exchange.

- The Columbian exchange is the exchange of food and diseases that killed a lot of
native Amerindian population that followed the Spanish’ conquest of the Americas

However, after the Columbian exchange, we have an increase in the population with has to do
with the mass migration from Europe to America in the 19th century. America received a
huge amount of European people who settled there during this period.
If we look at Africa, the decimation (decline vastly) between 1500 to 1800 has to do with the
slave trade and violence that occurred after the conquest of the Americas by the Europeans
(about 12 million people were moved). Also, because of their contact with European
(European did spread diseases). However, the African population rises from this point
onwards.

In Europe, the population has declined as many people left the continent because there was
land and jobs scarcity, due to the 19th century population explosion.

Redistribution of world population: European expansion

In the past, population grew dense in a region, shortage of land or job pushed people to less
populated areas. After 1500, there was also intercontinental migration:

- Between 1840s and 1940s (Age of Mass Migration), around 55 million Europeans
leave for the Americas.
- To a lesser extent to Oceania, South Africa, etc.

Before this expansion, Europeans represented 18% of the world population. By the 1930s,
people of European origin in Europe, North America and Oceania accounted for the 35% of
the world’s population. The main consequences of this redistribution for the Americas
were:

● The transformation of the population since 1492.

● European guns and diseases decimated native population by 80-95% within the first
100-150 years after Columbus' arrival.
● Atlantic slave trade (16th to 19th century) had an impact both in America and Africa
– 12 million slaves were imported. The hole left by Amerindian population was filled
in many areas by Europeans and African slaves.
● Mass European immigration in 19th century. European Expansion. Migration of
Europeans to other parts of the world on a massive scale took hold in the nineteenth
century, when the European nations began to industrialize and swell in numbers.
● "South" to "North" Migration: Since the 1930s, the outward expansion of Europeans
has ceased. Until then, European populations had been growing more rapidly than the
populations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, but since World War II that trend has
been reversed. The less-developed areas now have by far the most rapidly growing
populations. This change in the pattern of population has resulted in a shift in the
direction of migration. There is now far more migration from less-developed (the
“South”) to developed areas (the “North”) than the reverse.

Urbanization: mainly after 1800

The redistribution of people from rural to urban areas occurred earliest and most markedly in
the industrialized nations. In the less-developed areas of the world, urbanization was initially
associated with a commercial response to industrialization in Europe, America, and Japan.
The wealth acquired by people engaged in these activities naturally attracted attention, and
urban centers sprang up all over the world as Europeans sought populations to whom they
could sell their goods. During the second half of the twentieth century, when the world began
to urbanize in earnest, the underlying cause was the rapid growth of the rural population

● It is a process of migration, a type of in-state migration.

● As recently as 1800, less than 1% of the world’s population lived in cities of 100.000
or more.
● Nearly ½ of all humans live in cities of that size.
● Mainly result of industrialization or establishment of trade relations.
● And rural population growth was not absorbable by rural economy - also because of
rising mechanization.

WHICH COUNTRIES ARE GROWING NOW?

The countries marked in red are the ones that are growing the most: concretely they can be
found in Africa and the Middle East. Also Asia is growing. Germany and Russia have
experienced a constantly decline in population.

World population growth 1950-2050

Poner gráfico

Africa

- 15% of the world’s population.

 - Northern and Western Africa: the most populous country is Egypt, followed by
Turkey. IT is the size and rate of increase in the youthful population that has been
especially explosive in northern and western Africa. Rapid drop in mortality after
WWII followed by a long delay in the start of fertility decline produced a large
population of young people in the search of jobs.

- Sub-saharan Africa: slavery contributed to a decline in population. This area of the

world has long had higher death rates that anywhere else, but since the 1980s AIDS
pandemic, life expectancy has lowered in many countries of the region.

- Very high fertility rates: 4 -7 children per woman most of Sub-Saharan Africa, except
Southern Africa. The highest recorded fertility rate is for Nigeria about 7.

- Continent with highest population growth - projected until 2100.

- Expanding young population.

The Americas

- Today, 14% of the world population

- Slow population growth. They are at replacement fertility rate.

- Some natural increase (births > deaths) in Central and in South America.

- In the US, growth is to a large extent due to immigration (1 million migrants that are
added each year account for 40% of population growth & they have more children).
Immigration is the source of population growth (natural increase is stable).

- Mexico and Central America: patterns of rapidly declining mortality, leading to

population growth and its attendant pressures for migration to other countries where
the opportunities might be better.

- South America: In 1960, the average Brazilian woman was giving birth to six
children, but it has since dropped to 2.3. The other countries of South America, the
populations of which are predominantly of European-origin, such as Argentina, Chile,
and Uruguay, have fertility levels very similar to Brazil’s but higher life expectancies.
On the other hand, the countries with a large indigenous population—principally the
descendants of the Incan civilization—such as Peru, Bolivia, and Ecuador, tend to
have higher fertility, higher mortality, and higher rates of population growth.
Europe

- 12% of world’s total population today.

- Very slow population growth today (not in the past); low natural increase and
immigration not compensated.

- In Germany and Russia, the largest countries, population is even declining. The birth
rate was already low in Russia before the breakup of the USSR and since then there
has been a further baby bust, lowering the average number of children being born per
woman to 1.3.

- Threat of depopulation accounts also for all Southern and Eastern European countries
due to below replacement fertility and emigration. Threat of population decline
(mortality and fertility are very low). What is surprising is how low the birth rate has
fallen. It is especially low in the Mediterranean countries of Italy and Spain, where
fertility has dropped well below replacement level. a major consequence of the low
birth rate is an aging of the population that has left Europe with too few young people
to take jobs and pay taxes. Into this void have swept millions of immigrants, many of
them illegal, and Europeans are very divided in their reaction to this phenomenon.

- That both mortality and fertility are very low for historical reasons (part of the Second
Lecture).

- Most ageing population (Seventh Lecture). Challenge of population aging.

Oceania

- 0.5% of world population. It has the lowest birth rates and lowest death rates (lowest
rates of population growth as in Australia and New Zealand).

- Mostly of European origin, facing similar challenges as Europe and the US.

Asia

- Almost 60% of the world population: 4.3 billion.

- Fertility rate is not high, it is very low: they have already reached replacement level
(2.1; 2 to replace the couple and a bit more). In developing countries replacement rate
is higher because some children will not reach reproductive years (they might die
younger, or whatever so it might be around 2.5). Low fertility is also due to family
planning programs such as 1-child policy.
 - Fertility is higher in the Middle East.

- Population will probably keep growing, but only until around 2050, then it will stop.

- China: 1.3 billion people, most populous country of the world (1/5 of all human
beings). It peaked in 1850s, but the family planning program (wan xi shao) induced
fertility decline. There are so many young women of reproductive age (women born
25 to 45 years ago when birth rates were much higher) that their babies vastly
outnumber the people who are dying each year. Thus, population growth remains a
serious concern in China, but the concern is now turning from the young population to
the rapidly increasing number and proportion of older Chinese.

- India is the second country in population size in the world.

- Japan has the lowest level of mortality in the world and a female life expectancy at
birth of 86 years. India’s population is culturally diverse, and this is reflected in rather
dramatic geographic differences in fertility and rates of population growth within the
country.

- Indonesia: world's most populous Muslim nation (226 million people).

The momentum is the population growth that comes as a result of a past high fertility rate
(even if women nowadays only had 1 children, there are so many women that population
would keep growing). Even though fertility is at replacement level, population grows for a
while due to its MOMENTUM.

Brief conclusion:

This whirlwind global tour should have put you in mind of the tremendous demographic
contrasts that exist in the modern world. In the less-developed nations, the population
continues to grow quickly, especially in absolute terms. In sub-Saharan Africa this is
happening even in the face of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Yet, in the more-developed countries
population growth has slowed, stopped, or in some places even started to decline. As we look
around the world, we see that the more rapidly growing countries tend to have high
proportions of people who are young, poor, prone to disease, and susceptible to political
instability. The countries that are growing slowly or not at all tend to have populations that
are older, richer, and healthier, and these are the nations that are politically more stable and
are calling the shots in the world right now. The world is more complicated than that, but
keep in mind that there is almost certainly something to the idea that “demography is
destiny”—a country cannot readily escape the demographic changes put into motion by the
universally sought-after decline in mortality.
Each country has to learn how to read its own demographic situation, and cope as well as it
can with the inevitable changes that will take place.´

IMPLOSION OR INVASION? CHOICES AHEAD FOR LOW FERTILITY

COUNTRIES

The world's population is in no danger of imploding anytime soon, but the same cannot be
said for much of Europe and East Asia. Several countries in these areas are either already
declining in population, or are on the verge of doing so. According to data from the United
Nations Population Division (2005), there were 16 countries in 2005 that had fewer people
that year than in 2000. One reaction is to claim that it is good for the planet, as people living
in these countries are among the highest per person consumers of the earth's resources.

Several solutions have been proposed, and they relate to (1) how to raise the birth rate; (2)
how to increase labor force participation; and (3) how to replace the “missing” population
with immigrants. The availability of daycare, programs for maternity leave and family leave,
and societal pressure for men to help with childrearing and housework all increase the ability
of women to participate in the labor force and still have children. It has also been noted that
the impact of an aging population on a nation’s economy is exacerbated by an early age at
retirement. For most of human history people simply worked until they were physically no
longer able to do so.

The short-term solution to labor shortages in the world has always been to import labor. This
is the history of slavery in the Americas, and then the history of waves of immigrants to the
US from England, Germany, Italy, Mexico and elsewhere. The reality, then, is that
replacement migration in Europe would mean the immigration of not just workers, but also
their families, and within a generation or two the children of immigrants would become a
major force in the demographic makeup of the receiving countries.