THE HUMAN POPULATION

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
An interdisciplinary field of research that seeks to understand the natural world and our relationship to it.
- Human population growth has a variety of effects on the Earth system, including increased
resource extraction from the environment. Environmental science can help us understand the
patterns and causes of human population growth, as well as the environmental consequences of
this activity.
THE HUMAN POPULATION OVER TIME
Since we emerged as our own species some 200,000 years ago, we have grown from a few thousands’
individuals to over 7 billion!
 The time it takes our population to double has decreased sharply.
 It only has taken about 12 years to go from 6-7 billion people.
 We are projected to hit 9 billion near the year 2050.
 Estimates say stabilization around 2100. (10.5 billion)
Why our population has grown so quickly?
 Humans have the ability to expand into all climate zones and habitats

 Modern agriculture has allowed us to produce food very efficiently and in large quantities

 Death rates decreased because of improved sanitation and healthcare (biggest influence)

BRIEF HISTORY OF HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH

HUNTERS AND GATHERERS- From the first evolution of humans to the beginning of
agriculture.
- Hunter-gatherer culture is a type of subsistence lifestyle that relies on hunting and fishing animals
and foraging for wild vegetation and other nutrients like honey, for food. Until approximately
12,000 years ago, all humans practiced hunting-gathering.
 Population density: About 1 person per 130- 260 km² in the most habitable areas.
 Total human population: As low as one- quarter million less than the population of modern small
cities.
 Average rate of growth: The annual rate of increase is less than 0.00011% per year.

EARLY PRE- INDUSTRIAL AGRICULTURE- Beginning sometime between 9000 B.C. and 6000
B.C. and lasting until approximately the 16th century.
  Population density: Human population increased greatly, about 1 or 2 people/ km² or more.
- With the domestication of plants and animals and the rise of settled villages, human population
density increased greatly, to about 1 or 2 people/km2 or more, beginning a second period in
human population history.
 Total human population: About 100 million by A.D. 1 and 500 million by A.D. 1600.
 Average rate of growth: Perhaps about 0.03% which was high enough to increase the population.

THE MACHINE AGE

- Some experts say that this period marked the transition from agricultural to literate societies,
when better medical care and sanitation were factors in lowering the death rate.
 Total human population: About 900 million in 1800, almost doubling in the next century and
doubling again (to 3 billion) by 1960.
 Average rate of growth: By 1600, about 0.1% per year, with rate increases of about 0.1% every
50 years until 1950.
- The period in the early 20th century when there was greater production and more new inventions
of machinery than previously, and considered to be at a peak between the first and second world
wars

THE MODERN ERA

- Modern Era (1946 - present) The development and growth of the United States during this era
was influenced by helping Europe recover from World War II and U.S. involvement in other
wars--mainly the Cold War with the Soviet Union and the Vietnam and Korean Wars.
 Total human population: Reaching and exceeding 6.6 billion.
 Average rate of growth: The growth rate of the human population reached 2% in the middle of
the 20th century and has declined to 1.2%.

BASIC CONCEPTS OF POPULATION DYNAMICS

• Population dynamic- is the general study of population changes.
- Population dynamics is the study of how and why populations change in size and structure over
time. Important factors in population dynamics include rates of reproduction, death and
migration.
• Population- is a group of individuals of the same species living in the same area or interbreeding
and sharing genetic information.
- The whole number of people or inhabitants in a country or region or the total of individuals
occupying an area or making up a whole. A population is any complete group with at least one
characteristic in common. Populations are not just people. Populations may consist of, but are not
limited to, people, animals, businesses, buildings, motor vehicles, farms, objects or events.
• Species- is all individuals that are capable of interbreeding, and so a species is composed of one
or more populations.
- A group of living organisms consisting of similar individuals capable of exchanging genes or
interbreeding. The species is the principal natural taxonomic unit, ranking below a genus and
denoted by a Latin binomial, e.g., Homo sapiens.
• Demography- is the statistical study of human populations, and people who study the human
population include demographers.
- Demography is the scientific study of human populations primarily with respect to their size, their
structure and their development; it takes into account the quantitative aspects of their general
characteristics.
FACTORS THAT DRIVE HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH

Birth rate
- When the birth rate increases and the death rate decreases, the population of a country increases.
The younger a population, the faster that population grows because the birth rate is higher and the
death rate is lower.
 Human birth rate is stated as the number of individuals born per year per 1000 in the population.
 The population logically escalates if the number of births is more than the number of deaths at
any particular time or if the death rate is less or slower in respect to the birth rate.
 The formula for calculating crude birth rate is: Crude Birth Rate (CBR) = (Number of
births within a year/Total mid-year population) × 1000
- The birth rate is one of the most basic and important measures in demography. But its relevance
is not limited to just demographers. Birth rates affect public policy and budgeting for education
and health systems, and can have major impacts on the well-being of a country's population.

The current birth rate for Philippines in 2022 is 19.778 births per 1000 people, a 1% decline from
2021.
- 7,370 live births average per day (307.09 in an hour). The population of Philippines will be
increasing by 4,865 persons daily in 2022.

Death rate
- Population change is governed by the balance between birth rates and death rates. If the birth rate
stays the same and the death rate decreases, then population numbers will grow. If the birth rate
increases and the death rate stays the same, then population will also grow.
 A crucial reason affecting the growth of the population is the death, or mortality rate.
 As the birth of new individuals escalates the population size, deaths decline it. The issues that
affect the mortality rate consist of the accessibility and affordability of quality health care and
daily life practices.
 The formula for calculating Crude Death Rate is: Crude Death Rate (CDR) = (Number of
deaths within a year/Total mid-year population) × 1000
- They provide a snapshot of current health problems, suggest persistent patterns of risk in specific
communities, and show trends in specific causes of death over time.
In 2020, a total of 613,936 deaths were registered in the Philippines, a decline of -1.0 percent from
620,414 in 2019. This is equivalent to a crude death rate of 5.6, or about six deaths per 1,000 population
in 2020. This corresponds to an average of 1,677 deaths per day, which translates to 70 deaths per hour or
one (1.2) death per minute.

The number of registered deaths from 2011 to 2020 has trended upward except in the years 2017 and
2020. The increase during the ten-year period was 23.2 percent, from 498,486 in 2011 to 613,936 in 2020.

What is registered death?

- It shall serve as the official report and announcement of the date, cause, and place of the person's
death.

Immigration
 Immigration (moving into the place/country) is the movement of individuals into a population
from other areas.
 Immigrants contribute to population growth because of both their own numbers and their above-
average fertility. Most of those who immigrate are working-age adults.
- Immigration can make the difference between a growing population and a shrinking one. In
addition to impacting population size, an influx of immigrant workers can provide economic
stability, combating a shrinking workforce and a growing number of dependents.

Emigration
 Emigration (Exiting from a place/country) is the movement of individuals out of a population.
 A number of factors, such as running away from war, searching and finding good education,
pursuing a career, searching new jobs or union with family members, results in emigration.
 When an individual emigrates from a nation, its population declines gradually.
- Permanent emigration represents a loss of population in the place of origin. Whether this loss
translates into a long-run reduction in population size depends on the age and sex composition of
emigrant flows, and whether birth and survival rates rise in response to the loss of population.
FERTILITY RATE
  Total fertility rate (TFR)- An estimate of the average number of children that each woman in a
population will bear throughout her childbearing years.
- Female age is the most important factor affecting fertility. Women are born with all the eggs they
will ever have and the number of eggs available decreases each day from birth onwards.
- Knowing the TFR, along with mortality and migration projections, helps us estimate how a
population might grow, shrink, or stabilize over time. Data on the total fertility rate can also help
predict other demographic shifts, such as future age distributions within a population.
 Replacement-level fertility- The total fertility rate required to offset the average number of
deaths in a population in order to maintain the current population size.
- Replacement level is the amount of fertility needed to keep the population the same from
generation to generation. It refers to the total fertility rate that will result in a stable population
without it increasing or decreasing.
- Replacement level fertility will lead to zero population growth only if mortality rates remain
constant and migration has no effect. The momentum of past and current demographic trends may
also take several generations to work itself out.
Replacement level fertility tends to be higher in developing countries because mortality among young
people tends to be higher.
LIFE EXPECTANCY
 Life expectancy- The average number of years that an infant born in a particular year in a
particular country can be expected to live, given the current average life span and death rate in
that country.
- Estimation of the average number of additional years that a person of a given age can expect to
live. Life expectancy is a hypothetical measure. It assumes that the age-specific death rates for the
year in question will apply throughout the lifetime of individuals born in that year.
- The current life expectancy for Philippines in 2022 is 71.53 years, a 0.18% increase from 2021.
• Infant mortality- The number of deaths of children under 1 year of age per 1,000 live births.
- Infant mortality is the death of an infant before his or her first birthday.
- Infant mortality represents an important component of under-five mortality. Like under-five
mortality, infant mortality rates measure child survival. They also reflect the social, economic and
environmental conditions in which children (and others in society) live, including their health
care.
• Child mortality- The number of deaths of children under age 5 per 1,000 live births.
- According to UNICEF, Child mortality or the under-five mortality rate refers to the probability of
a child dying between birth and exactly 5 years of age, expressed per 1,000 live births. In 2020,
5.0 million children under 5 years of age died. This translates to 13,800 children under the age of
5 dying every day in 2020. Globally, infectious diseases, including pneumonia, diarrhoea and
malaria, remain a leading cause of under-five deaths, along with preterm birth and intrapartum-
related complications.
AGE STRUCTURE
 Age structure diagram- A visual representation of the number of individuals within specific age
groups for a country, typically expressed for males and females.
- The age structure of a population refers to the proportionate numbers of people in different age
categories in a given population for a defined time. It is a natural characteristic of a population in
a country or a region. The age structure is closely related to the birth rate, death rate and
migration of a population.
- Age structure varies considerably by nation and provides insight into a population’s history, its
current status, and its likely future.
 Population pyramid- An age structure diagram that is widest at the bottom and smallest at the
top, typical of developing countries.
- The population pyramid represents the breakdown of the population by gender and age at a given
point in time. It consists of two histograms, one for each gender (by convention, men on the left
and women on the right) where the numbers are shown horizontally and the ages vertically. The
numbers by gender and by age depend on interactions between fertility, mortality and migrations.
The shape of the pyramid and its variations over the years depend above all on the variations in
fertility.
 Population momentum- Continued population growth after growth reduction measures have
been implemented.
- Population momentum explains why a population will continue to grow even if the fertility rate
declines. Population momentum occurs because it is not only the number of children per woman
that determine population growth, but also the number of women in reproductive age.
- Population momentum occurs when a country's fertility rate declines to or below replacement
level (2.1 children per woman), yet the population size continues to grow due to the age structure
of the population.

HUMAN IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEM

Earth’s Carrying Capacity
 Thomas Malthus (late 1700’s)- studied human population growth and said was growing
faster than Earth’s resources
MALTHUSIAN THEORY OF POPULATION
Malthus examined the relationship between population growth and resources in one of his works.
He then proposed the Malthusian theory of population where he said that the population grows
exponentially and the food supply grows arithmetically and that a balance between the two can
be established through positive and preventive checks.
- Malthus reasoned that it would be impossible to maintain a rapidly multiplying human
population on a finite resource base.
- The Malthusian theory explained that the human population grows more rapidly than the
food supply until famines, war or disease reduces the population. He believed that the
human population has risen over the past three centuries.
 - Recent medical advances in our understanding of aging, along with the potential of new
biotechnology to increase both the average longevity and maximum lifetime of human
beings, have major implications for the growth of the human population.
- As medical advances continue to take place, the death rate will drop and the growth rate
will rise even more.
- Thus, a prospect that is positive from the individual’s point of view—a longer, healthier,
and more active life—could have negative effects on the environment. We will therefore
ultimately face the following choices: Stop medical research into chronic diseases of old
age and other attempts to increase people’s maximum lifetime; reduce the birth rate; or
do neither and wait for Malthus’s projections to come true—for famine, environmental
catastrophes, and epidemic diseases to cause large and sporadic episodes of human death.
- This theory was criticized by economists and ultimately disproved. Even as the human
population continues to increase, technological developments and migration have
ensured that the percentage of people living below the poverty line continues to decline.
In addition, global interconnectedness stimulates the flow of aid from food-rich nations
to developing regions.

Carrying Capacity- Maximum number of individuals an ecosystem can support

- Carrying capacity is the maximum number of organisms a specific habitat can sustainably
support. Carrying capacity is important because if a population exceeds it, the habitat can
become degraded and unsuitable.
- In reality, there is simply not enough space or resources for natural populations to
continue to grow unchecked. Limiting factors within every ecosystem, such as the
availability of food or the effects of predation and disease, prevent a population from
becoming too large.

Ecological footprint
- The impact of a person or community on the environment, expressed as the amount of
land required to sustain their use of natural resources.
- An ecological footprint determines how much is an unused land's supply capacity: what
is its production capacity or how much waste can be stored there. Environmental
footprint means how much land can be used by one person.
- The Ecological Footprint is a simple metric. It is also uniquely comprehensive. Not only
does it measure humanity's demand on our planet's ecosystems, but it is also key to
understanding the inter-related pressures of climate change on the natural ecosystems on
which humanity depends.

WE CAN BRING BIRTH RATES DOWN

1. EMPOWERING WOMEN AND GIRLS
- Where women and girls are empowered to choose what happens to their bodies and lives,
fertility rates plummet. Empowerment means freedom to pursue education and a career,
economic independence, easy access to sexual and reproductive healthcare, and ending
horrific injustices like child marriage and gender-based violence. Overall, advancing the
rights of women and girls is one of the most powerful solutions to our greatest
environmental and social crises. Solutions 2 and 3 below are both tightly linked with
 female empowerment.

2. REMOVING BARRIERS TO CONTRACEPTION

- Currently, more than 200 million women who want to avoid pregnancy are not using
modern contraception. There are a variety of reasons for this, including lack of access,
concerns about side-effects and social pressure (often from male partners) not to use it.
These women mostly live in some of the world’s poorest countries, where population is
set to rise by 3 billion by 2100. Overseas aid support for family planning is essential –
both ensuring levels are high enough and that delivery of service is effective and goes
hand-in-hand with advancing gender equality and engaging men.
- Across the world, some people choose not to use contraception because they are
influenced by assumptions, practices and pressures within their nations or communities.
In some places, very large family sizes are considered desirable; in others, the use of
contraception is discouraged or forbidden. Work with women and men to change
attitudes towards contraception and family size has formed a key part of successful
family planning programmes. Religious barriers may also be overturned or sidelined. In
Iran, a very successful family planning campaign was initiated when the country’s
religious leader declared the use of contraception was consistent with Islamic belief. In
Europe, some predominantly Catholic countries such as Portugal and Italy have some of
the lowest fertility rates.

3. QUALITY EDUCATION FOR ALL

- Ensuring every child receives a quality education is one of the most effective levers for
sustainable development. Many kids in developing countries are out of school, with girls
affected more than boys due to gender inequality. Education opens doors and provides
disadvantaged kids and young people with a "way out". There is a direct correlation
between the number of years a woman spends in education and how many children she
ends up having. According to one study, African women with no education have, on
average, 5.4 children; women who have completed secondary school have 2.7 and those
who have a college education have 2.2. When family sizes are smaller, that also
empowers women to gain education, take work and improve their economic
opportunities.

4. GLOBAL JUSTICE AND SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIES

- The UN projects that population growth over the next century will be driven by the
world’s very poorest countries. Escaping poverty is not just a fundamental human right
but a vital way to bring birth rates down. The solutions above all help to decrease
poverty. In addition, lower child mortality through improved access to health care and
better economic opportunities lead to smaller family size also. International aid, fair trade
and global justice are all tools to help bring global population back to sustainable levels.
A more equal distribution of resources and transitioning away from our damaging
growth-dependent economic systems are key to a better future for people and planet.

5. EXERCISING THE CHOICE

- In the developed world, most of us have the power to choose the size of our families –
although we may also face pressures of all kinds over the size of the families we choose
to have. When making choices about that, it's important to remember that people in the
rich parts of the world have a disproportionate impact on the global environment through
our high level of consumption and greenhouse gas emissions – in the UK, for instance,
each individual produces 70 times more carbon dioxide emissions than someone from
Niger. When we understand the implications for our environment and our children’s
futures of a growing population, we can recognise that choosing smaller families is one
positive choice we can make.