Solution

Answers will vary depending on what you assumed the future turnover rate to be. For example, in this solution
file, I have listed 4 possible ways to predict future headcount.
In each case, the workforce size does not meet the goal for the end of March, but the number of people needing
to be downsized has been reduced.
Case 1: I have assumed that the annual turnover rate is 12.1% which is the voluntary turnover rate for the past 12
months. This is a conservative value since it assumes that there will be no INVOLUNTARY turnover.
Case 2: I have assumed that the annual turnover rate is 14.5% which is the total rate for the last 12 months. This
assumes that the next few months will behave similar to the last 12 months.
Case 3: I have assumed that the monthly turnover rate for January through March will be the same as last year.
This choice helps to add the seasonality throughout the year.
Case 4: I have assumed that the monthly turnover rate for January through March will be the average of those
months in 2018 and 2019.

Case 1 Assumed annual turnover rate 12.1%

January February March

Current Workforce 1000 989.9167 979.935
Expected employee departures 10.08333 9.98166 9.881011
Size of the workforce at the end of March 970

Case 2 Assumed annual turnover rate 14.5%

January February March

Current Workforce 1000 987.9167 975.9793
Expected employee departures 12.08333 11.93733 11.79308
Size of the workforce at the end of March 964

Case 3 - Assumes turnover for Jan, Feb, Mar will be the same as in 2019
Assumed monthly turnover rate 0.9% 1.2% 1.9%
Jan Feb Mar
Current workforce 1000 991 979.108
Expected employee departures 9 11.892 18.60305
Size of workforce at the end of March 961

Case 4 - Assumes turnover for Jan, Feb, Mar will be the average of the Jan, Feb, mar values in 2018 and 2019
Assumed monthly turnover rate 1.1% 1.1% 1.8%
Jan Feb Mar
Current workforce 1000 989 978.121
Expected employee departures 11 10.879 17.60618
Size of workforce at the end of March 961