TRABAJO DE INGLÉS

THE WAR BETWEEN UKRAIN AND RUSSIA

CONSECUENCIES AND IMPACT ALL AROUND
THE WORLD
JUNE 8, 2022, NEW YORK — More than three months since the start of the war in

Ukraine, people around the world are facing a cost-of-living crisis not seen in more than

a generation, with rising impacts on global food, energy and food prices. fertilizer

markets, in a world already grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic and climate

change.

An estimated 1.6 billion people in 94 countries are exposed to at least one dimension

of the crisis, and about 1.2 billion of them live in “perfect storm” countries that are

severely vulnerable to all three dimensions of the crisis. cost-of-living crisis, according

to the latest findings of the United Nations Secretary-General's Global Crisis Response

Group on food, energy and financial systems. "For those on the ground, each day

brings new bloodshed and suffering. And for people around the world, the war, along

with other crises, threatens to unleash an unprecedented wave of hunger and misery,

leaving social and economic chaos in its wake," warned Secretary General António

Guterres at the launch of the GCRG initiative. last brief. "Vulnerable people and

vulnerable countries are already being hit hard, a vicious circle

regional implications
Despite the widespread impact of the crisis, not all regions and subregions are

exposed in the same way, says the report, highlighting the fact that some countries and

communities are more vulnerable than others and urgently in need of assistance.

Sub-Saharan African countries, for example, remain significantly vulnerable, with one

in two Africans in the region exposed to all three dimensions of the crisis. The Latin

American and Caribbean region is the second largest group facing the cost of living

crisis with almost 20 countries deeply affected.

Extreme poverty could threaten the lives and livelihoods of 2.8 million people in the

Middle

East and North Africa.

EUROPEAN ECONOMIES ARE THE MOST AT RISK

Because of its dependence on Russian oil & natural gas, Europe appears to be the
region most exposed to the consequences of this conflict. At the time of writing, with
the barrel of Brent trading above 125$ and natural gas futures suggesting prices
durably above 150€/Mwh, Coface estimates at least 1.5 percentage point of additional
inflation in 2022 which would erode household consumption and, together with the
expected fall in business investment and exports, lower GDP growth by approximately
one percentage point.
On top of that, we estimate that a complete cut of Russian natural gas flows to Europe
would raise the cost to 4 percentage points in 2022, which would be bring annual GDP
growth close to zero, more probably in negative territory – depending on demand
destruction management.