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Fertilizer
Fertilizer
Companies
Published: 21-Aug-22
Modified: 21-Aug-22
1. Increasing regulations and tightening subsidy support
2. Other factors influencing the business performance of fertilizer companies
3. Summary
The current article aims to highlight the key aspects of the business of fertilizer
companies. After reading this article, an investor would understand the factors
that impact the business of fertilizer companies and the characteristics that
differentiate a fundamentally strong fertilizer company from a weak one.
Types of fertilizers
Fertilizers are classified based on the key nutrient that they contain: Nitrogenous
(N), Phosphoric (P) and Potassic (K).
There are simple fertilizers, which primarily contain one nutrient like Urea
(nitrogenous), Single Super Phosphate (SSP, phosphoric) and Muriate of Potash
(MoP, potassic). In addition, there are complex fertilizers, which contain more
than one nutrient like diammonium phosphate (DAP) and nitrogen, phosphorous
and potassium (NPK).
The primary reason for such high govt. control is that fertilizers are sold to
farmers at a significant discount to their actual market price. Urea is sold at a
discount of about 70%-80% and Phosphoric & Potassic (P&K) fertilizers are sold
at a discount of about 30%. This discount is reimbursed by the govt. to fertilizer
companies in the form of subsidies.
Govt. provides such a high amount of subsidy on fertilizer with two primary
objectives. The first is to ensure food supply to the population at a cheaper price
and the second is to increase the income in the hands of the farmers who are
also a large politically important segment.
In 1977, Retention Price Scheme (RPS) was introduced for the fertilizer industry,
which was aimed at increasing fertilizer production within the country. Therefore,
govt. promoted investments in the industry with an assured return to the entire
fertilizer industry.
Rating Criteria for the fertiliser industry by CRISIL, February 2021, page 13:
Introduced in 1977, the RPS, with the objective of achieving self-sufficiency and
providing adequate returns to fertiliser companies, has been primarily
responsible for the growth in domestic fertiliser capacity and production.
As fertilizers were sold at a discount/subsidised price to farmers; therefore, as
the production of fertilizers increased, the subsidy burden on the govt. also
increased. As a result, govt. gradually removed fertilizers from the RPS scheme.
P&K fertilizers were taken out of RPS in 1992 and Urea was taken out in 2003.
Rating Criteria for the fertiliser industry by CRISIL, February 2021, page 13:
Phosphatic and potassic fertiliser makers were governed by the Retention Price
Scheme (RPS) till 1992, and urea players till March 2003.
Later on govt. kept bringing different regulations with the twin objective of
increasing fertilizer production in the country and controlling its subsidy burden.
a) P&K fertilizers:
For P&K fertilizers, the govt. almost freed the retail prices and introduced
nutrient-based subsidy (NBS), which provided these fertilizer companies with a
fixed amount of subsidy while leaving retail prices to fluctuate in line with import
parity prices.
Rating Criteria for the fertiliser industry by CRISIL, February 2021, page 13:
Rating Criteria for the fertiliser industry by CRISIL, February 2021, page 14:
b) Urea:
This is to ensure, in principle, that a normative return (post tax 12% Return on
Equity or RoE) on fixed costs is earned by the urea players.
In addition, to reduce the imports and promote domestic production of urea, the
govt. incentivizes domestic urea companies to produce even more than their
reassessed capacity (RAC) by assuring to buy it at a predetermined pricing
framework till the time such purchase price for the govt. does not exceed the
import parity price.
The key strategy behind these regulations has been to force/incentivize the
fertilizer companies to be more efficient and then take benefit of resultant savings
to reduce the subsidy amount on Urea production.
Rating Criteria for the fertiliser industry by CRISIL, February 2021, page 14:
To provide a levelling field to all the urea producers, the govt. introduced a gas
pooling mechanism and made the energy costs uniform across all urea
producers irrespective of the fact whether they used cheaper domestic gas or
costlier imported regasified liquid natural gas (RLNG). As a result, now, all the
urea producers who are linked to the national gas grid get uniform gas pricing.
The GoI implemented gas pooling, for all the fertiliser units connected to the
natural gas pipeline network, in July 2015 resulting in levelized gas cost for the
entire fertiliser sector. For players which were earlier operating using domestic
gas only witnessed an increase in their cost of production while players using R-
LNG witnessed a decline in their cost of production
In addition, the govt. classified urea producers into groups based on their energy
efficiency. As almost all the producers use the same production processes;
therefore, the energy efficiency primarily depends upon the vintage/age of the
plant. Older plants using old processes are less efficient than newer plants using
new processes.
GoI has been progressively tightening the normative energy norms for the urea
industry over the years. The tightening of the energy norms results in lower
subsidy outgo for the GoI and improvement in the energy efficiency of the urea
industry.
Moreover, the govt. has been cutting down the subsidy burden even in the cases
where companies have been producing urea more than their reassessed
capacity (RAC).
Originally, the companies producing more than RAC received their variable cost
+ ₹2,300 per MT and incidental charges. However, in recent times, it has been
reduced to variable cost + ₹1,635 per MT and incidental charges.
Rating Criteria for the fertiliser industry by CRISIL, February 2018, page 3:
In P&K, under a nutrient-based subsidy scheme, the govt. has already fixed its
subsidy burden whereas letting the companies change the retail price in line with
changing costs of production whereas in the urea segment, the govt. still decides
the retail price and reimburses money to urea producers to ensure that they earn
a reasonable return on their investment. However, over time, the govt. is forcing
urea manufacturers to be more efficient and is using these efficiencies to reduce
its subsidy burden.
As the price of fertilizers directly affects the farmers and their income; therefore,
govt. has hardly given fertilizer producers any power to earn large profits.
In the case of urea, the govt. directly controls the retail price (farm-gate price)
and gives the companies subsidy that determines their return on investment.
Therefore, as discussed earlier, the only way for urea companies to increase
their profitability is to be more efficient in their production. Moreover, as the urea
industry becomes more efficient, the govt. reduces the subsidy payments, which
in turn puts a check on the profitability of urea manufacturers.
In fact, for urea manufacturing units the govt. has determined a range of returns
on equity that companies can earn. If there are profits higher than this range,
then govt. updates the policy and takes the benefits away.
GoI introduced the New Urea Investment Policy-2012 (NIP-2012) which assured
a floor and ceiling of post-tax RoE of 12% and 20% respectively through the
policy measures.
In the case of phosphoric and potassic (P&K) fertilizers, even though the prices
were freed/deregulated in 2010; still, govt. interferes in the retail prices by
controlling the selling price of fertilizers by public sector fertilizer producers. This,
in turn, forces the private players to match the price offered by public sector
companies.
P&K segment was partially decontrolled during 2010, following which the players
have been able to freely price such decontrolled fertilisers as per their cost
structure and the demand-supply dynamics. However, the GoI still monitors the
reasonableness of the retail prices by auditing the input costs.
The control of govt. on the profitability of fertilizer companies is so much that in
the past when some fertilizer companies earned outsized returns due to usage of
domestic gas, then govt. stopped their subsidy payments and is looking for
recovery of “undue benefits”.
The primary reason for high working capital is that receivables from the govt. in
the form of subsidy for a major part of cash inflow for the companies and these
subsidy payments are usually delayed.
The key reason for delays in subsidy payments is overall inadequate subsidy
budgets. In addition, the problem intensifies especially during the second half of
the year when the annual subsidy budget is exhausted.
Previously, companies became eligible for a subsidy when the fertilizer was
produced and dispatched from the factory. However, now, under DBT, they
become eligible for subsidy only after the fertilizer is purchased by the farmer.
Therefore, the period between the dispatch of the fertilizer from the factory and
the purchase by the farmer i.e. the duration spent by the fertilizer in the entire
distribution channel is added to the estimation of subsidy entitlement, which
increases the working capital requirements of the companies.
The government has rolled out direct benefit transfer (DBT) for subsidy payment
from February 2018 where in the subsidy would be transferred to the
manufacturers after the fertilizer is sold to the farmer which is expected
to increase the working capital intensity of the companies as under the earlier
regime subsidy was largely linked to the point of dispatch, and under DBT, it is
linked to the point of retail sales
The working capital intensity of urea producers is higher because subsidy forms
a higher portion (70%-80%) of total realization than 30% of total realization for
P&K fertilizers.
by the end of FY2021 the GoI cleared the subsidy backlog that had built-up over
the years
In addition to delays in subsidy payments, the fluctuations in the fertilizer demand
due to uncertainty in monsoon performance also increase the working capital
burden on the companies due to higher inventory requirements.
This leads to higher fertilizer sales during the normal monsoon period while low
sales during drought or low rainfall period. During the period of low rainfall, the
fertilizer companies may be impacted in terms of increased channel
inventory which may also impact its working capital borrowings and can also
lead to increase in discounts and larger credit period to increase sales.
Therefore, most fertilizer companies have a high working capital debt on their
books.
In the terms of the requirement for fixed capital also, the intensity of the fertilizer
industry is high. Plants for the production of urea and DAP need a large amount
of capital.
urea and DAP plants are characterised by high capital intensity, while the NPK
complexes and SSP plants are relatively less capital intensive.
In addition, due to consistent pressure from the govt. on fertilizer companies to
improve their operating efficiencies, they need to consistently make investments
in more energy and cost-efficient equipment leading to consistent capital
requirements.
GoI has been progressively tightening the normative energy norms for the urea
industry over the years. The tightening of the energy norms results in lower
subsidy outgo for the GoI and improvement in the energy efficiency of the urea
industry. However, to meet the lower energy norms, urea units have to incur
capital investments
Therefore, fertilizer companies need to invest a large amount of money in the
business both in the fixed capital as well as working capital.
In the case of urea, as govt provides the key raw material, natural gas to all the
companies at a uniform price via a gas pooling mechanism; therefore, govt.
provides a fixed reimbursement of their costs by grouping the companies into
three groups based on energy efficiency.
The feedstock cost for all the domestic urea players, which have gas pipeline
connectivity, is uniform and is a pass-through to the GoI up to the normative
energy norm. Profitability gets negatively impacted for the urea units
having energy consumption higher than the normative energy norm
while positively impacted for urea units with energy consumption below
normative energy norms
In the case of phosphoric & potassic (P&K) fertilizers, the retail prices are
deregulated (market-determined) and the subsidy component is fixed. Therefore,
companies, which are cost-efficient earn a higher profit.
NBS regime has changed the structure from fixed MRP and variable subsidy
to fixed subsidy and variable MRP. As a result, control over raw material
prices such as phosphoric acid, rock phosphate, ammonia, sulphur and MOP
and energy efficiency in conversion to finished goods is important to
drive profitability.
While the urea production up to the re-assessed capacity (RAC) has an assured
offtake under the urea policy, the profitability on the urea production beyond the
RAC is a function of the prevailing international prices and the cost structure of
the urea unit.
Therefore, urea companies have to become more cost-efficient than imports,
especially during periods of commodity price increases when it might become
cheaper for the govt. to import urea than procure it from domestic companies
producing above RAC.
Large fertilizer plants gain cost efficiency from multiple aspects like operating
leverage where the fixed costs of the plant are spread across a large volume and
in turn, reduce the per-unit production costs.
Potassic fertilizers are not produced in India and the entire requirement of the
same is imported.
Even in the case of Urea, fertilizer manufacturers face a shortage of key raw
materials like natural gas. Therefore, large-sized companies find it comparatively
easier to have long-term supply tie-ups.
Fertilizer units in the country today are faced with gas shortages and under such
circumstances, CARE reviews the ability of the company to have long-term tie-
ups for its gas requirements at competitive rates.
Large-sized companies also benefit as their operations are spread over many
geographies, which protects them from adverse agro-climatic events like a failed
monsoon because the possibility of monsoon failure in all the geographies in one
year is low.
Rating Criteria for the fertiliser industry by CRISIL, February 2021, page 15:
Being an energy-intensive industry, most of the time, energy costs gain the
maximum importance in determining cost efficiencies of fertilizer companies
However, other aspects of cost efficiency are also important like locational
advantages of plants, backward integration etc.
Fertilizer plants, which are located close to their customers are at an advantage
because the transportation cost of finished fertilizers is higher than its raw
materials. However, P&K plants, where imports are an important source of raw
material/ready potassic fertilizers are established near the coast.
Efficiency improving measures like backward integration are very important for
phosphoric fertilizers, which face a shortage of some raw materials even at
global levels.
In addition, companies with flexible manufacturing plants that can use easily
switch between the basic raw material and intermediate products for making
fertilizers are at an advantage because they can choose the most cost-effective
starting material based on the prevailing pricing scenario.
Rating Criteria for the fertiliser industry by CRISIL, February 2021, page 15:
Additionally, players with flexible manufacturing facilities that enable them to
shift between sourcing of intermediates and basic raw materials, depending on
the cost economics, are usually able to minimise cost increases.
Therefore, whether it is nitrogenous (urea) or P&K fertilizers, staying cost
competitive is essential and companies must attempt to be as cost-efficient as
possible to remain competitive. In fact, in the case of urea producers, in light of
assured offtake and subsidies, any poor performance is always due to poor cost
efficiency.
6) Risks:
The fertilizer industry is currently facing risks from different aspects. Let us
understand some of them.
Raw material prices of all the fertilizers be it urea or P&K are imported whether
directly or indirectly. P&K fertilizers are directly dependent on imports for their
raw material whereas, for urea plants, the key raw material like natural gas is
influenced by the international price of crude oil.
In the case of nitrogenous fertilizers (urea), the forex changes, as well as raw
material price changes, are a pass-through to the govt. under variable costs.
However, in the case of P&K fertilizers, as the amount of subsidy is fixed, any
increase in raw material costs hurts their profit margins.
Rating Criteria for the fertiliser industry by CRISIL, February 2021, page 15:
The raw material handling facilities of the players and ability to store these are
other key operating efficiency determinants, given that raw materials are
imported and their prices are volatile.
Further advised reading: Credit Rating Reports: A Complete Guide for Stock
Investors
Currently, such foods are costly because the production yields of organic farming
are lower. However, as newer innovations lead to improvements in the yields of
organic food, which would reduce their premium pricing, they will gain more
acceptance. It might have an impact on the demand for fertilizers by farmers.
The fertilizer industry has seen such reversals multiple times in the past and it
may see it in the future as well.
In the past when govt introduced Retention Price Scheme (RPS) in 1977 to
increase fertilizer production to achieve self-sufficiency in the country, then the
subsidy burden increased so much that it had to move P&K fertilizers out of it in
1992 to reduce the subsidy outgo.
Thereafter, the prices of P&K fertilizers increased. However, urea was still under
RPS making its price much cheaper than P&K fertilizers. As a result, farmers
used too much urea and it created a nutritional imbalance.
Rating Criteria for the fertiliser industry by CRISIL, February 2021, page 13:
Rating Criteria for the fertiliser industry by CRISIL, February 2018, page 3:
The ideal nutrient composition, too, favours nitrogen, and hence, urea. The
perfect NPK ratio of soil stands at 4:2:1. However, due to indiscriminate urea
use, this ratio stood at 6.9:2.7:1 in fiscal 2016
Once the govt. started focusing on reducing the subsidies, then it could not timely
revise its investment guidelines for the sector. Therefore, for a very long time, no
new urea manufacturing capacity came up in the country, which led to a very
sharp increase in imports of urea to meet the continuously increasing demand.
Rating Criteria for the fertiliser industry by CRISIL, February 2021, page 14:
On account of unfavourable investment policies, capacity additions were
absent in the urea segment – leading to a surge in urea import (from 0.5 million
tonne [MT] in fiscal 2000 to 6.9 MT in fiscal 2008).
Rating methodology – fertilisers by ICRA, March 2022, page 5:
domestic urea industry did not witness any capacity additions in the past two
decades
Therefore, the govt. revised its investment policy for the urea segment; however,
the first policy in 2008 proved insufficient and did not get a good response. As a
result, the govt. revised it in 2012 and this time, gave so many incentives that the
investment proposal received could create an oversupply of urea in the country.
Now, the govt. had to cut down on the incentives especially, the clause for an
assured offtake of production.
Rating Criteria for the fertiliser industry by CRISIL, February 2021, page 14:
new urea plants being set up under New Urea Investment Policy-2012: these
plants are exposed to offtake risk as well, given that the GoI replaced the
assured offtake clause in the NIP-2012. Since the cost of procurement from
these plants will be higher than the imported urea, these plants are exposed to
the off-take risk.
Therefore, an investor would appreciate that like any other highly regulated
sector, the fertilizer industry is also exposed to the risks of regulations and
incentives moving towards excesses in each direction like a pendulum. It has
happened in the past and may happen in the future as well. Therefore, an
investor should be cautious of these risks while assessing fertilizer companies.
Summary
Fertilizers are a very essential product to ensure food security as well as farm
income. Therefore, govt. attempts to provide them below their cost price to
farmers. It results in a huge subsidy outflow from the govt. to fertilizer
manufacturers. As a result, the govt. control fertilizer industry heavily by
regulations controlling almost all aspects like retail prices, raw material prices,
operating efficiencies, production incentives etc.
India is a fertilizer deficit country and almost the entire domestic production of
fertilizers is consumed. However, the companies cannot take undue benefits
from this assured demand. Govt. influences how much return these companies
can make and if companies start making large profits, then govt. takes away
these benefits by reducing the subsidy amount.
Due to rising environmental awareness, the fertilizer industry faces risks from
growing acceptance of organic food as well as a transition from natural gas to
green hydrogen. Nevertheless, one of the biggest risks faced by the industry is
regulatory flip-flops where frequently incentives and harsh measures go to
extremes.
Therefore, an investor should keep in mind these multiple aspects for fertilizer
companies to understand the true picture of their business position.
Dr Vijay Malik
P.S.