Disaster Readiness and Risk Reduction

Hand-out 8:
Signs of Impending Volcanic Eruption and Volcano Hazard Maps
Most volcanoes provide various types of warnings before eruptions begin. Some volcanoes, especially those that
have not erupted for a long time (hundreds of years) might display obvious precursors of reactivation months to weeks
before a major eruption (ex. Pinatubo in 1991).
Some volcanoes might explode without warning if the type of eruption is what is known as phreatic. Also known as
steam-blast eruptions, these events could occur with little or no warning as superheated water flashes to steam similar to
what happened at Mayon volcano in 2013 and Ontake Volcano, Japan (2014).
It is important to be able to observe warning signs of volcanic unrest so that people can evacuate in time, to
minimize injuries and casualties. It is therefore important to be able to monitor a volcano’s activity, and this is normally
done with the aid of different tools or instruments to monitor the different parameters.

The assessment of a volcano’s status (if it is quiet or in normal state, in state of unrest, expected to erupt,
erupting) is based on the different parameters that can be observed. Volcanologists often use a combination of as many
data available from the different parameters used for evaluation. For example, the number of earthquakes as recorded by
the seismograph may increase from background levels of 0-5 per week and may escalate into 100s in a day.
This is further confirmed and supported by increasing number of earthquakes felt by the local people. In addition other
parameters such as gas measurements and water acidity may also show signs of increasing trend.

DiscoverParameters Equipment / Instrument / Tools What to Observe

Ground deformation
• Precise engineering methods of surveying Some subtle (in millimetres) ground
using the instrument Electronic Distance movements may be detected only by
Meter (EDM) to measure accurately to sensitive instruments/ equipment
millimeter changes on ground (if the slope
for the volcano swells
• Swelling of the ground surface can be
detected by using precision instruments and
techniques that measure minute changes in
slope,

distance, or elevation at the ground surface. • Deformation on ground is also measured using data
of repeated measurements from permanent Global Positioning System (GPS) installed around the
volcano.
• Use of Remote sensing images also help compare before and after features.

Geochemistry (Gas, • Direct measurement of • Changes in temperature • Water

Water, temperature) temperature and becomes more acidic
chemistry ground water,
spring water or lakes
(using a thermometer
/thermocouple, pH
meter)
Geochemistry (Gas, •Gas being emitted by •Some gas, for example (SO2), from base
Water, temperature) volcanic can be measured levels of 100 tons/day jump to 4,000
directly by gas tons/day s can be an indication of unrest
monitoring equipment
• Collect gas and water
samples from vents and
fumaroles and analyze in
the laboratory (X-Ray
Fluorescence XRF)
• Remote monitoring Gas
monitoring equipment
(COSPEC- correlation
spectrometer for Fly
SPEC/ ScanDOAS for
(SO2);and (CO2), flux meter
for (CO2)
Seismic activity/ •Seismometer is the •Increase in number of volcanic
Seismicity/ volcanic equipment used to detect earthquakes recorded
earthquakes occurrence of volcanic
earthquakes
People living near volcanoes may observe premonitory events before an eruption
 Disaster Readiness and Risk Reduction
Hand-out 8:
Signs of Impending Volcanic Eruption and Volcano Hazard Maps
Visual, observations •Intensified steaming activity
• What used to be white steam slowly or drastically
change to gray to dark (suggests increasing presence of
ash)

Some Definitions

1. Ground Deformation
Refers to surface changes on a volcano, such as subsidence (sinking), tilting, or bulge formation, due to the
movement of magma below the surface. Deformation changes at a volcano, such as those related to magnitude or location,
may indicate that an eruption is about to occur. (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/monvoc/monvoc2.php)
Use of remote sensing technology or techniques as applied to volcano monitoring. Monitoring surface changes on a
volcano from afar- using available tools such as satellite images; advantage: less exposure on the ground for
volcanologists, safer; but sometimes interpretation needs field verification.

2. Seismic activity
From earthquakes to swarms of earthquakes. Most unrest in volcanoes start with volcanic earthquakes. Volcanoes
and earthquakes go hand in hand. The challenge is to determine which patterns of seismic waves precede an eruption.
When magma makes its way up to the surface it breaks the rocks along the way, and in so doing, earthquakes are
generated.

3. Gases
Types and rate of emission. Gases rise through vents called fumaroles (from the Latin for “smoke”) and other
cracks. Sometimes the concentrations are high enough to create acid rain that kills vegetation—the trees at the Long
Valley, California, caldera, for example. That’s one very visible sign of activity, but scientists have several ways to
measure the rate of emissions more precisely. They can collect samples from vents directly, but it is safer to use remote
sensing instruments. Scientists mount/ install infrared and correlation spectrometers from airplanes, for example, and fly
through a plume of gas. These instruments read energy signatures—thermal output or electromagnetic frequencies—to
identify and quantify the gases.