Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Module Number: 01
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Learning Objectives
Understanding the use of mathematical models on financial instruments and knowledge of
innovative tools of financial engineering.
.
Elaborate the necessary skills to design (and reverse-engineer), value, and hedge derivative
contracts.
Understanding the analytical arguments in the (increasingly) technical publications that deal with
innovations in these contracts
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Learning Outcomes
Formulate appropriate solutions to financial problems with particular emphasis on understanding
.
new risks, which the changing scenario of finance is creating for individuals and firms.
Develop skills in forming effective strategies to cope with the changing risk environment.
Plan & evaluate innovative financial products.
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Contents
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Introduction
“Not taking risks one doesn't understand is often the best form of risk management.” ― Raghuram G. Rajan.
In current internet-dependent global economy, the rapid change in business environment forces decision
making riskier. Under open economy regime price fluctuation (volatility) is constant. Rapid technological
change is reshaping the business landscape and emerging new businesses and industries are redefining
business models and the fundamentals of competition.
The rapid pace of change in the business environment has increased the uncertainty in the outcomes of
management decisions and placed a greater emphasis on risk management. Assessing that uncertainty using
both qualitative and quantitative techniques is the fundamental objective of risk analysis.
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Risk Managers and traders who perform hedge and portfolio revisions on daily basis are relying on
mathematics & computer generated simulation to minimise their risk.
Successful risk management can only be done through accurate valuation, which is the prime focus of
Financial Engineering.
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Financial Engineering Application Areas
Financial risk management for financial institutions, corporations, and public institutions
(from hedging risks of individual transactions to enterprise-wide risk management systems)
Derivative securities (contract design, pricing & valuation, investment, trading, and hedging
applications)
Modeling stochastic dynamics of stock prices, interest rates, foreign exchange rates and
commodity.
Asset/liability management technology for corporations, banks, pension funds
Credit risk modeling and management and credit derivatives.
Real options: valuing businesses and strategic managerial decisions by applying option
pricing technology
Portfolio Management
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Driving forces for Financial Engineering
Increasing Volatility of Financial Markets and the Need for Risk Management
Volatility of equity prices, foreign exchange rates, commodity and energy prices, and interest
rates increased dramatically over the past three decades
Higher volatility increases risk (as well as more opportunities)
Risk Management is crucial to the survival and competitiveness of organizations
Information Technology
Real-time worldwide information and data collection, analysis, decision-making, and trading are
made possible.
Securities trading goes electronic and moves from exchange floors into cyberspace.
Banks are the biggest users of information technology.
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Financial Analysis primarily focuses on analysis of different financial statement viz, Income Statement,
Balance sheet, Cashflow statement and Cost statement. It relies on the ex-post data available. It assumes
the history repeats itself, company will perform the same in future under the same factor constraints.
Financial Engineering perform accurate financial analysis then begins the possible future events using
statistical modelling and probability. Valuation of financial instruments and application of risk
minimisation strategies are the two main purpose of financial engineering.
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Basis Financial Analysis Financial Engineering
Portfolio Analysis Analyse risk – return relationship in Analyse, form & optimise portfolio of
capital market instruments. investments. Further propose different
hedging strategies to minimise
portfolio risk.
Interest Rate Risk Analyse the scope of Interest rate risk Develop appropriate hybrid products to
based on past experience curb interest fluctuation.
Inflationary Risk Analyse degree of inflation and its Suggest appropriate measures and
impact on different business segment innovate securities for minimise
and overall economy inflationary risk.
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Financial Engineering for increased Risk
Corporate Engineering – Venfin (Case Study)
In Venfin’s interim financial report for the six months ended 31 December 2002, the following was reported:
“On 31 December 2002, VenFin exercised the put option acquired from Merrill Lynch International in respect
of 51,858,000 Richemont depositary receipts held by VenFin. The total cash proceeds realised by VenFin as a
result of exercising the put option amounted to R945.2 million. A capital surplus of R348 million was realised
and is accounted for as an exceptional item.”
“VenFin acquired from Hosken Consolidated Investments Limited (HCI) an additional 1.5% interest in
Vodacom with effect from 31 December 2002 for a total consideration of R450 million. The proceeds from the
Richemont transaction were in part used to settle this amount. At 31 December 2002, VenFin’s interest in
Vodacom was 15.0%”.
Three corporate action announcements were made on 29 August 2002, 9 September 2002 and 16 January
2003.
The 9 September announcement stated “VenFin has acquired a put option from Merrill Lynch International
(MLI) in respect of 51,858,000 Richemont depositary receipts held by VenFin; and MLI has acquired a call
option from VenFin in respect of 51,858,000 Richemont depositary receipts held by VenFin”.
Through these announcements we learnt that Venfin used equity derivatives in these corporate action
events. These events were also linked.
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Corporate Engineering – Venfin (Case Study)
History
In 1993 the then Rembrandt Group invested 100 million into a new company called Vodacom. Vodacom
successfully tendered to obtain one of only two cell phone licenses issued by the South African
government. This investment secured 15% shareholding in Vodacom for Rembrandt. The other
shareholders were Telkom (50%) and Vodafone from the United Kingdom (35%).
In 1995 Rembrandt sold 1.5% and Vodafone 3.5% of their shareholding in Vodacom to a black
empowerment company called Hosken Consolidated Investments Limited (HCI). Rembrandt received R90
million for its 1.5% stake.
On 26 September 2000, Rembrandt Group split into Remgro Limited and Venfin Limited. Venfin inherited
2% of Richemont’s share capital with the split. This shareholding was non-stategic. Venfin also inherited
the 13.5% shareholding in Vodacom.
During 2002 HCI has drawn loan funding from Venfin of some R600 million to recapitalise e-tv.
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Corporate Engineering – Venfin (Case Study)
Sound Investments and associated Risks
Venfin realized the potential of e-tv and wanted to obtain a shareholding there-in. Venfin also wanted to
increase its shareholding in Vodacom that was, at that point of time, extremely successful and profitable.
The loan of some R600 million to HCI set a series of transactions in motion during August of 2002 to
achieve these goals by 31 December 2002.
Venfin used the loan to cash-strapped HCI as an effective negotiating tool in convincing HCI to part with
its 5% stake in Vodacom and to convert the loan into equity. After the conversion Venfin owned 33.1% of
e-tv (indirectly through Sabido Investments).
Venfin needed to raise R450 million to fund the 1.5% of Vodacom that it wanted to buy from HCI. Venfin
had various options like taking a loan from a bank. However, it had the non-strategic stake in Richemont
that it could use. A simple solution could have been to sell shares at beginning of September 2002, put the
proceeds on deposit and buy the 1.5% stake on 31 December 2002.
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Corporate Engineering – Venfin (Case Study)
However, Venfin knew that Richemont was going to declare a dividend during September 2002 – they did
not want to compromise that tax-friendly income. Venfin needed to find a way to sell the Richemont shares
and secure their dividend income at the same time. Venfin was also fully aware of the risk that negotiations
might fail – they needed to consider that risk as well.
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Corporate Engineering – Venfin (Case Study)
An Innovative Funding Structure
Financial Engineering, at its core, is the study of applying math, statistics, computer science, economic
theory, and (any) other quantitative methods to analyzing and modelling markets.
These fields are comfortable with building models and have strong backgrounds in math, statistics, and
sometimes programming. Ultimately, Financial Engineers work at the intersection of Data Science and
Finance.
Financial Engineers use these tools to model markets and drive decision making. They are mostly seen in
institutions where understanding risk and analyzing data to drive policy and decision making
Matrix Theory / Linear Algebra, Probability and Statistics, Calculus are used very frequently in Financial
Engineering
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Knowledge base of Financial Engineer
Programming Proficiency
Basic C++ Programming
Advanced Excel
Advanced R (Advantageous)
Advanced Machine Learning with Python (Advantageous)
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The term Risk & Uncertainty is being used interchangeably though they have distinct meaning altogether.
Risk is a situation when there are a number of specific probable outcomes but not certain which outcome
will happen.
Uncertainty is where even the probable outcomes are not known.
Risk management is concerned with understanding and managing the risks that an organization faces in its
attempt to achieve its objectives. These risks will often represent threats to the organization – such as the
risk of heavy losses or even bankruptcy.
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Financial Risk
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Market Risks:
These are the financial risks that arise because of possible losses due to changes in future market prices or
rates. The price changes will often relate to interest or foreign exchange rate movements, but also include
the price of basic commodities that are vital to the business.
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Credit Risks:
Financial risks associated with the possibility of default by a counter-party. Credit risks typically arise
because customers fail to pay for goods supplied on credit. Credit risk exposure increases substantially
when a firm depends heavily upon a small number of large customers who have been granted access to a
significant amount of credit.
EXAMPLE: AMAZON’S CREDIT RISKS
Amazon, the global online retailer, accepts payment for goods in a number of different ways, including
credit and debit cards, gift certificates, bank checks, and payment on delivery. As the range of payment
methods increases, so also does the company’s exposure to credit risk. Amazon’s exposure is relatively
small, however, because it primarily requires payment before delivery, and so the allowance for doubtful
accounts amounted to just $40 million in 2006, against net sales of $10,711 million.
EXAMPLE: CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE BANK OF AMERICA
In its 2007 annual report (p.69), Bank of America states that it manages credit risk “based on the risk profile
of the borrower or counterparty, repayment sources, the nature of underlying collateral, and other support
given current events, conditions and expectations.” Additionally, the bank splits its loan portfolios into
consumer or commercial categories, and by geographic and business groupings, to minimize the risk of
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excessive concentration of exposure in any single area of business.
Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Financing, Liquidity And Cash Flow Risks:
Financing risks affect an organization’s ability to obtain ongoing financing. An obvious example is the
dependence of a firm on its access to credit from its bank.
Liquidity risk refers to uncertainty regarding the ability of a firm to unwind a position at little or no cost,
and also relates to the availability of sufficient funds to meet financial commitments when they fall due.
Cashflow risks relate to the volatility of the firm’s day-to-day operating cash flow.
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II. Development of a risk response
Then we need to respond to the risks has been identified. An example would include setting out a policy
defining the organization’s response to a particular risk, and explain how that policy fits in with its broader
objectives. It would also
(a) set out the management processes to be used to manage that risk,
(b) assign responsibility for handling it, and
(c) set out the key performance measures that would enable senior management to monitor it
The possible responses can be categorized into three categories,
Internal strategies imply a willingness to accept the risk and manage it internally within the framework of
normal business operations
Risk sharing strategies relate to strategies that mitigate or share risks with an outside party.
Risk transfer involves paying a third party to take over the downside risk, while retaining the possibility of
taking advantage of the upside risk.
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Risk Strategies and Tools
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
III. Implementation of a risk control strategy and the associated control mechanisms
Having selected a risk response, the next stage is to implement it and monitor its effectiveness in relation to
the specified objectives. Implementation includes allocating responsibility for managing specific risks. We
need to constantly update the risk exposure in terms of Cash flows and risk return ratio.
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IV. Review of risk exposures (via internal reports) and repetition of the cycle
The control loop is closed when the effectiveness of the risk controls is evaluated through a reporting and
review process. This then leads to a new risk identification and evaluation process. This process itself has
three main components:
Review process: This should include a regular review of risk forecasts, a review of the management
responses to significant risks, and a review of the organization’s risk strategy.
Internal reporting: to the board or senior management group: This might include a (a) review of the
organization’s overall risk management strategy, and (b) reviews of the processes used to identify and
respond to risks, and of the methods used to manage them.
External reporting: External stakeholders should be informed of the organization’s risk management
strategy, and be given some indication of how well it is performing.
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES TO MITIGATE RISK
Knowing the potential scale and likelihood of any given financial risk, management needs to decide how to
deal with it. This means deciding whether it wishes to accept, partially mitigate, or fully avoid the risk.
Different tools exist for each of these choices and for each risk type
Choosing the most appropriate tool depends upon the risk appetite, level of expertise in the business, and
the cost effectiveness of the particular tool.
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Risk Management
Tools for Different
Categories of
Financial Risk
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
A US aircraft manufacturer is uncertain about whether interest rates will rise or fall in the
medium term, and is concerned because the bulk of its borrowing is through variable rate loans.
The company has long-term contractual commitments from customers, which require the
granting of medium-term credit lines. The risk of an increase in interest rates can be internally
hedged by ensuring that the credit lines granted to customers are linked to interest rates. In this
way, if the manufacturer’s own liabilities increase because of a rise in interest rates, the value of
accounts receivable will also increase. The match will not be perfect but will reduce costs.
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
CADBURY SCHWEPPES AND COMMODITY
FUTURES
Futures: Futures contracts are a form of
standardized forward contract that are
Cadbury Schweppes uses commodity futures contracts to
traded exclusively on organized exchanges.
hedge against adverse cash flow or profit and loss
movements arising from changes in the prices of sugar,
Uses: In principle, futures may be used to
cocoa, aluminium, and other commodities. It is easy to
protect against changes in any asset or
understand why Cadbury Schweppes use commodity
commodity price, interest rate, exchange
futures, because between the end of 2000 and June 2002,
rate, or any measurable random variable
for example, the price per metric tonne of cocoa increased
such as temperature, rainfall, etc.
from $800 to $2200. Such a huge increase within a
relatively short time implies that a failure to hedge such an
exposure would potentially have dramatically affected their
profits. Similarly, the oil price rises of 2008 have seriously
affected the profits of small haulage firms that chose to
accept the price risk rather than to hedge their exposure.
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Swaps: A swap is a contract to exchange the AN INTEREST-RATE SWAP
difference between two cash flows at one or
more agreed future dates. A fixed-for-floating interest rate swap enables a firm to
arrange with a swap dealer to swap the difference between
Uses: management of interest rate and a fixed and a floating rate of interest. Such an arrangement
exchange rate risks. More recently, markets effectively allows an organization to convert a position in a
in commodity and credit risk swaps have floating rate loan into a position in a fixed
developed. Swaps can be used to (a) reduce rate one, and vice versa.
funding costs, arbitrage tax, or funding LXN’s Treasurer has negotiated a fixed rate of 6% or
differentials, (b) gain access to new financial Euro Libor +1.5% variable rate for a loan of €1.8 million.
markets, and (c) circumvent regulatory The counterparty is a swap dealer, MGV, who has agreed
restrictions. to convert the fixed rate debt into synthetic floating rate
debt via a swap arrangement in which the two companies
will share the quality spread differential (QSD) equally.
The counterparty can borrow at 7.2% fixed or Euro
Libor + 2.5% variable. Euro Libor is currently 5%.
(continued)
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Comparing the cost of fixed rate borrowing between LXN and MGV, we see that LXN has a comparative
advantage equal to 1.2% (7.2% - 6.0%). In the floating rate market, LXN also has a comparative advantage
of 1% ( LIBOR +2.5% - LIBOR + 1.5%). The gap between the relative benefit in the fixed versus floating
markets is termed the QSD, and in most swaps this is shared equally between the two parties. In this case
the QSD equals 0.2%.
The result is a net saving to both parties of 0.1% interest on the terms that they could otherwise have
obtained, i.e., LXN pays 6.4% instead of 6.5% variable, and MGV pays 7.1% fixed instead of 7.2%. This
saving has to be offset against the additional risk arising from the swap because of the counterparty risk.
LXN faces the risk that MGV will not make the cash payments on time, and that any default losses would
have to be covered.
The detailed workings for the swap are shown below:
LXN MGV
Borrows at 6% Borrows at Euro LIBOR + 1.4%
Receives from MGV (6.4%) Receives (6.8%)
Pays to MGV 6.8% Pays to LXN 6.4%
Net Interest Cost Euro LIBOR +1.4% Net Interest Cost 7.1% 43
Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
FOREIGN EXCHANGE OPTIONS TO HEDGE
Risk Transfer Strategies EXCHANGE RATE RISK
Therefore, suppose that an US company has a net cash
Options: An option is a contract that gives the outflow of €300,000 in payment for clothing to be
holder the right to buy or sell an underlying imported from Germany. The payment date is not known
asset at an agreed price at one or more exactly, but should occur in late March. On January 15, a
specified future dates. The agreed price is ceiling purchase price for euros is locked in by buying 10
known as the strike or exercise price. An calls on the euro, with a strike price of $1.58/€ and an
option that involves the right to buy is known expiration date in April. The option premium on that date
as a call option and one that involves the right plus brokerage commissions is $.0250, or a unit cost of
to sell is a put option. $1.6050/€. The company will not pay more than $1.6050/
€. If euros are cheaper than dollars on the March payment
date, the company will not exercise the call option but
simply pay the lower market rate of, say, $1.52/€.
Additionally, the firm will sell the 10 call options for
whatever market value they have remaining.
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Insurance: Many risks, such as risk of loss of or damage to buildings or contents by fire,
are best managed by traditional insurance. The payment of a premium secures the
purchaser against losses on the insured asset.
The purchase of insurance is often obligatory, either for legal reasons or as
precondition for credit – as is the case with mortgages.
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Document Links
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Document Links
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Video Links
Topics URL
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Bibliography
❑ Chatterjee. R., Practical Methods of Financial Engineering & Risk Management,
Springer publications
❑ https://towardsdatascience.com/intro-to-financial-engineering-7668ca1a01cc
❑ https://mfe.haas.berkeley.edu/admissions/prerequisites#Programming
❑ Management Accounting Guideline Financial Risk Management for Management
Accountants, Jan 2009.
❑ Horcher, K. A., Essentials of Financial Risk Management, Wiley & Sons Inc.
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Assignment
Q1. Tata Motors has acquired JLR on 2008 all in cash transaction for $2.3 billion from Ford Motors.
Being a Indian Auto manufacturer what are the risk did Tata Motors was exposed into? Support your
views.
Q2. Nagarjuna Mills Ltd. a renowned fabric manufacturer who imports raw cotton from Egypt and also
sources from domestic vendors. This year the Meteorological Department of India (MDI) has
forecasted a late monsoon for India. To mitigate this type of risk what strategy can they formulate.
Support your views
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Introduction to Financial Eng. & Risk Management
Summary
In this rapid changing global economy decision making is riskier day by day. High volatility in
Financial Markets force managers to be more accurate and quant dependent.
Financial Engineering is a multi-disciplinary area where mathematics & statistical application in
finance domain is required. It is a blend of IT, Engineering & Finance altogether.
Financial Engineering is applicable to mitigate risk in all forms. But due to our course structure we are
limiting it to Financial risk management.
Risk & uncertainty is not the same. We can evaluate risk and for all risk we formulate different
strategies to mitigate the same.
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