Copyright © IFAC Control of Industrial Systems.

Belfon. France, 1997

POWER SYSTEM PLANNING AND OPERATION IN A COMPETITIVE

ENVIRONMENT: THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE

Juan J. Alba

lnstituto de Investigaci6n Tecnol6gica

Universidad Pontificia Comillas, Madrid, Spain

Abstract: Technical and economic reasons, as well as political decisions, are pushing for the
restructuring and introduction of competition in the electricity industry. In this framework, new
technical challenges arise, concerning power system planning and operation. Artificial
intelligence can provide efficient solutions for some of these new problems: improved
modelling of uncertainty, accurate on-line security assessment, customer modelling and control,
decision-support systems for trading operations, etc.
Resume: Des raisons techniques et econorniques, ainsi que des decision politiques, donnent lieu a
la reorganisation et I'indroduction de la concurrence au sein de l'industrie electrique. Dans ce
cadre, des nouveaux defis techniques apparaissent, en ce qui concerne I planification et
l' exploitation du systeme electrique. L'intelligence artificielle peut fournir des solutions
efficaces a plusieurs de ces nouveaux proble~es: modelisation amelioree des incertitudes, analyse
de securite en temps reel, modelisation et contr61e des clients, systemes d'aide a la decision pour
les operations commerciales, etc.

Keywords: Power systems, artificial intelligence, decision support systems, fuzzy modelling,
expert systems, knowledge-based systems, machine learning

1. INTRODUCTION associated with the behaviour of independent

The electricity supply service is going through
important transformations all over the world.
Technical and economic reasons, as well as political
decisions, are pushing for the restructuring of the
industry and the introduction of competition in
important parts of this activity. The traditional
concept of the vertically integrated utility, either run
by the government or privately owned, is being
replaced with a complex environment of generators,
transmission service providers, wholesale electricity
markets, system operators, power brokers, etc. As a
result of this, the established decision-making
processes, that used to be centralized and carried out
in a top-down fashion, are being transformed into a
network of decentralized mechanisms, that have to
operate in a rapidly evolving context.
In this framework, new technical challenges arise:
The expansion of generation and
transmission is no longer centralized and co-
ordinated; decisions on the upgrade of
transmission networks must face the uncertainties
generators. Moreover, the electricity industry is
no longer protected against unexpected events and
errors by regulated rates, captive customers and
actions of the government. It must improve its
ability to forecast and hedge risks, and requires
new ways of modelling uncertainties.
Transmission grids are interconnected to
create large wholesale markets in which power
flows change with differences in prices and
consumption. These vast systems allow a more
economic supply, but require a co-ordinated
operation. Control centres require additional
capabilities to deal with this new environment.
Generators are no longer totally constrained to
follow the instructions of a central dispatch, but
may have a certain degree of autonomy in their
commitment and dispatching. Therefore, system
operators must be able to react to unexpected
conditions. New systems for operator's support
are needed for this task.

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 Power buyers and sellers need to forecast
the consumer demand to establish their prices and
strategies. On the other hand, the behaviour of
consumers will probably become more responsive
to prices, and could be more difficult to predict.
Consumers may have the possibility of
selecting a supplier and establishing physical
contracts. The system operator usually has to
authorize those contracts at short notice, and
always must monitor them to prevent risks to the
security of the system. New security assessment
tools are required for this task.
All participants in the electricity market must
take into account complex and rapidly evolving
environments: fuel prices and availability,
transmission congestion and rates, demand
patterns, etc. A new generation of decision
support tools is needed to work in this context.
These needs provide challenging lines of research for .
the electrical engineering community: uncertainty
modelling, demand forecasting, real-time security
assessment, decision-support software, etc. Artificial
intelligence could provide feasible solutions to some
of these problems; this paper reviews some of the
developments that are taking place in this domain.
The paper starts with a brief survey of the
transformation that the electricity industry is
undergoing: section 2 reviews some of the reasons
behind the changes, while section 3 describes which
could be the foreseeable structure of the electricity
supply industry in the next future. The rest of the
paper deals with the contributions of artificial
intelligence in this context, through the description
of some interesting examples.
2. THE TRANSFORMAnON OF THE
ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY
There is no single reason for the transformation that
the electricity ind~stry is undergoing world-wide, but
a mixture of technical, economic and political
explanations. Not all of them are applicable to all
countries, and they always have to be considered in a
variety of local circumstances.
From the technical point of view, the advances
in generation technology are considered by
most observers to be a major driving force behind the
restructuring of the electricity supply. During the
sixties and the seventies, the typical capacity of the
large coal-fired and nuclear units reached values
between 600 and 1000 MW. Construction time was
frequently more than four or five years, and up to ten
years for some nuclear plants. For this reason,
decisions on generation expansion had to be taken
long before the capacity was needed. The required
investments were enormous, and cost overruns were
usual. In this context, only large, vertically integrated
utilities, owned by the state or working in a heavily
regulated environment, were able to make the
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necessary investments, since they were protected
against the consequences of planning errors.
The development of combined cycle gas
turbines has led to increases in thermal efficiency
and to a reduction in the optimal size of units. Using
this technology, the typical installed capacity of
generating plants can be less than 300 MW"
construction time can be reduced to one or two years,
and the investment per installed kW is considerably
smaller. Moreover, the development of the natural
gas transportation infrastructure and, in some
countries, competitive wholesale gas markets, has led
to wide availability of this fuel at reduced prices.
Additionally, the lower environmental impact of gas-
fired power plants reduces the regulatory uncertainty.
As a result of these factors, decisions concerning
generation expansion involve lower risks and can be
taken by smaller agents. This has made possible the
appearance of independent generation companies that
can produce energy at prices lower than those charged
by traditional utilities.
The development of renewable energy sources,
thanks to subsidies and favourable regulatory
treatment, provided a new competitor in the
generation industry, although most of these
technologies are not yet able to survive in a
competitive environment without official support.
Technical advances in transmission
technology cannot be considered a force behind the
changes; nevertheless, FACTS technology (power
electronic devices used to control power flow,
voltages and other magnitudes of grids) allows
transmission companies to operate their networks in
a more efficient way. This is specially important in
an environment in which generation expansion
decisions are frequently beyond the control of the
owners of the network, and environmental onstraints
make the construction of new lines difficult.
Economic and political factors have also been
decisive in the transformation of the industry. The
oil crisis of the seventies pushed most
governments to try to reduce their dependence on oil
imports. Among other measures, some countries
(significantly the United States) promoted the use of
renewable resources, waste incineration and
cogeneration. A favourable treatment for these
assets (ensuring a healthy return on investment and a
very Iow risk) made possible the development of new
companies that entered the electricity business; first
they were cogenerators or operators of renewable
energy-based plants, later they were independent
power producers (mostly running gas-fired facilities).
Demand side management was paid significant
attention in power system planning. Growing
environmental concerns played a crucial role in
the support for alternative generation and demand side
management, and made much more difficult to keep
on building large coal-fired and nuclear units.
Many new participants came into the electricity
market through these newly opened doors: gas
marketers, oil companies, energy service companies,
manufacturing firms, etc. This new environment set
the basis for the increase of competition and the
pressure towards deregulation.
Some political factors have played a major role
in the transformation. First, the example of certain
countries that undertook liberalization processes quite
early. Second, the growing world-wide acceptance of
the advantages of competition and free markets to
organize sectors of the economic activity. Finally,
the pressure of some multilateral financial
organizations, such as the World Bank or the
European Investment Bank, that frequently require the
deregulation of the economy (including the electricity
industry) to provide funds to a country. In Europe,
the European Union has been active in promoting the
open access to transmission networks.
The entrance of private investors in the
electricity industry world-wide has been a major
component of the transformation of the electricity
industry. In the most dynamic areas of the world
(such as Asia and Latin America), fast increases in
demand require ambitious programmes of generation
expansion. However, in many countries, state-owned
utilities do not have the resources required to invest,
or even to ensure the maintenance of equipment.
A frequent solution for this problem has been the use
of build-operate-own (BOO) or similar schemes, in
which a private investor builds a new generation unit
and establishes a contract with the utility to sell the
power produced. Investors are frequently selected
through competitive bidding. The proliferation of
these schemes has led to a globalization of the
electricity business, the appearance of a reduced set of
"world-class players", and the entrance of highly
competitive agents in markets that had previously
been totally closed.
Several obstacles can make the transformation of the
electricity industry a difficult task.
First, when all or part of the industry IS Investor
owned (as in the United States or Spain), past
investments are protected by the regulation and their
remuneration is ensured. In most cases, those
investments were authorized or even required by the
government. Obviously, a fast liberalization can
cause some assets to be unable to recover their costs
in a competitive market. These are the stranded
costs; in some cases these costs are recovered
through transition charges that must be paid by
consumers after the introduction of competition.
In principle, a state-owned electricity industry can be
faster to transform (as happened in Argentina, Chile
or the United Kingdom), since there are no investors
to satisfy. However, in many countries, electricity
prices charged by state-owned utilities are heavily
subsidized and do not cover the actual costs. The
government cannot afford the lose of public support
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that would be caused by a fast increase in electricity
rates, and the transition period also has to be
extended. This is specially the case in most countries
of Central and Eastern Europe.
3. THE COMPETITIVE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY
INDUSTRY
A competitive electricity industry should have several
of the following characteristics to a certain extent:
• Separated companies provide generation,
transmission and distribution services (i.e., there
is no vertical integration).
Transmission and distribution activIties are
considered to be a monopoly. The providers of
these services usually have a franchised territory;
the prices they can charge and the decisions they
can make are closely controlled and regulated. The
transmission network is the axis of the electricity
market, and it must be ensured that all the
participants have access to it in fair conditions.
Generation is open to competition. A number of
generation companies can compete in a wholesale
market (the "pool" or power exchange), in which
they can bid a price for the energy that they can
supply. The generation dispatch is based on the
bids, but also has to take into account the
relevant constraints. A wholesale price of the
electricity is established for each period, based on
the system marginal cost, and is used to
remunerate the generators.
A system operator is responsible for the security
of the system, and the provision of reserves,
voltage control and service restoration capabilities
(all these are now called ancillary services, and
can be supplied through market-based procedures).
There are different types of contracts to hedge the
risks associated to the volatility of the wholesale
electricity price, as well as secondary markets to
sell and buy those contracts.
There is a separate commercialization activity,
carried out by power marketers that buy wholesale
electricity from the pool and sell it to customers,
paying a fee for the use of networks. This makes
possible the existence of different rate schemes,
tailored to the needs of each group of consumers.
In some countries, consumers, distributors or
generators are or will be entitled to establish
physical contracts, outside the pool. Obviously,
these contracts will have a direct impact on the
dispatch and can cause security problems;
therefore, the independent system operator must
authorize and monitor each transaction.
Planning is no longer a centralized actiVIty.
Investors take decisions based on their forecast of
demand increase, their estimate of wholesale
 electricity prices or the contracts that they can
sign. The transmission company must react
swiftly to new generation. The market provides
economic signals if there is a lack of capacity (in
that case the wholesale price will increase), and so
attracts new investors.
There is a regulatory body, relatively independent
from the government, that oversees the electricity
industry and controls the market. The regulators
can still have ways of adjusting the system, such
as the use of a capacity payment to make sure
that there is enough installed capacity.
4. AI IN TIffi NEW ENVIRONMENT
A competitive electricity market presents significant
technical challenges from the planning and operation
points of view.
In expansion and operation planning, there is an
increased need to improve decision-making processes
in the presence of uncertainty. Fuzzy techniques have
been explored in this area, and have provided
promising results, as will be described in section 5.
Additionally, the multi-attribute evaluation processes
involved in the selection of a generator or the
negotiation of a contract can be supported with
knowledge engineering techniques, as will be briefly
discussed in section 6.
The operation of a liberalized power system requires
flexible and fast support tools, given the variety of
partially autonomous agents that can take decisions
that compromise the security of the system. Section
7 will review some of the tasks and responsibilities
of the system operator and the support that can be
provided by artificial intelligence (AI) techniques.
Generators working in a competitive pool must
evaluate a wide range of factors to prepare their bids
or asses their trades. Appropriate decision-support
tools can provide efficient solutions to these
problems, as will be discussed in section 8.
Finally, since a competitive industry will be more
focused on its customers, there will be an increased
need for load modelling and control; some
developments in this field are described in section 9.
5. FUZZY TECHNIQUES AND PLANNING
UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Fuzzy techniques have been used to model
uncertainties in different power system applications.
Fuzzy values can be used to represent uncertain
variables that are needed in power system planning.
A usual approach to this problem is based on the use
of several scenarios with associated probabilities.
However, this is a time consuming task (if the
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number of scenarios is high) and requires a relatively
artificial probability assignment.
This approach presents several important advantages:
Fuzzy sets can accurately represent the uncertainty
about the value of a magnitude.
Fuzzy values are more natural and easy to obtain
than the scenarios and associated probabilities.
This method does not require to select a set of
discrete scenarios, but recognizes that uncertainty
about the future has a continuous character.
• Fuzzy numbers can be processed using efficient
algorithms: a fuzzy approach is usually much
more efficient than a traditional procedure based
on the analysis of multiple scenarios.
This method has been used in fuzzy power flows and
fuzzy optimal power flows (Miranda, Matos et al.,
1990; Miranda and Saraiva, 1992; Saraiva, Miranda et
al., 1994; Guan, Liu et al., 1995; Pinto, Araujo et
al., 1996), where fuzzy values are used to represent
loads. It has also been applied in unit commitment
models, maintenance scheduling, hydraulic generation
scheduling, reliability evaluation and generation
expansion planning (Su and Hsu, 1991; Huang, Lin
et al., 1992; Liang and Hsu, 1994; Pinto, Araujo et
al., 1996; Saraiva, Miranda et al., 1996), where fuzzy
variables are used to model generation costs, demand,
spinning reserve, water inflows, etc.
Fuzzy optimization (Terano, Asai et al., 1991)
provides an efficient way of dealing with multiple
attribute optimization problems. In this approach,
membership functions are used to represent the
objective function and the constraints. This method
has several advantages:
It allows a flexible treatment of constraints (i.e.,
a certain degree of violation of a constraint can be
accepted).
It provides an efficient and global evaluation of
several objective functions.
Nevertheless, a fuzzy optimization problem is more
complex than its crisp counterpart.
Some examples of fuzzy optimization applied to
generation scheduling, unit commitment and
maintenance and fuel scheduling are presented in
(Niimura, Ueki et al., 1990; Su and Hsu, 1991;
Huang, Lin et aI., 1992; Maekawa, Yasuda et al.,
1992; Tomsovic, Skugge et al., 1993; Liang and
Hsu, 1994; Djukanovic, Babic et al., 1996; Guan,
Luh et al., 1996).
6. KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING IN MULTIPLE-
ATTRIBUTE DECISION MAKING
Many power system tasks require to make decisions
assessing multiple attributes. There are widely known
techniques for this, as well as the fuzzy approaches
that were discussed in the previous section.
Knowledge engineering methods have also been
applied to this problem.
Some authors (Wang, Liu et al., 1994; Rosenwald,
Liu et al., 1996) have proposed an approach to this
problem based on the following elements:
A graphical structure, the Goal-Decision
Network, that represents the objectives, the
decisions that can have an impact on each
objective, and the information that is used to
make each decision.
Influence functions, that give a quantitative
assessment of the impact of each decision on each
objective.
A search algorithm that looks for Pareto-optimal
decisions in the Goal-Decision Network through
the application of three operators used to simplify
the network through the identification of sub-
graphs. These operators are inspired in actions
that are performed in human negotiation.
This procedure has been applied to interchange
contract negotiation and cogeneration planning.
7. AI IN THE OPERATION OF A COMPETITIVE
SYSTEM
A competitive generation market requires three basic
functions:
1. The operation of the market (pool): collecting and
processing bids, establishing the balance between
generation and demand, computing the system
marginal price that will be used to remunerate the
energy supplied by the generators, etc.
2. The operation of the system: monitoring the
security of the network, taking into account all
the physical constraints that can affect the
dispatch, authorizing and applying the generation
dispatch provided by the market, as well as the
bilateral transactions; arranging the supply of
reserve and voltage control services, operating the
transmission network, etc.
3. The ownership of the transmission network.
In "traditional" regulatory frameworks, functions 1,2
and 3 are usually carried out by a single entity. For
instance, this is the case of Red Electrica de Espaiia.
In competitive environments, functions 1, 2 and 3
can be carried out by separate entities (as in
California). In other countries (such as Argentina) 1
and 2 are the responsibility of a single institution
(CAMMESA) while transmission services are
provided by different entities. In the United Kingdom,
functions 2 and 3 are united (The National Grid
Company), and function 1 is executed by The
Electricity Pool of England and Wales.
The entity in charge of function 2 is usually called
the independent system operator. It is responsible for
controlling the behaviour of the market participants,
since they are no longer constrained to follow
1065
instructions coming from a centralized control, but
may have a certain degree of autonomy. This is
specially important if physical contracts
are allowed. In this case, the generation dispatch is
not only a result of a centralized market, but
generators can directly supply energy (i.e., can
modify their dispatch) through a bilateral arrangement
with a consumer or reseller, by-passing the market.
Obviously, the independent system operator must
assess and authorize those contracts, and monitor
their application. This process has different aspects:
The losses caused by each transaction must be
estimated and charged to the responsible
participants.
The impact of each set of transactions in security
must be evaluated. If they lead to the violation of
security constraints, the independent system
operator must re-schedule the transactions.
Nevertheless, this rescheduling must be carried
out in a non-discriminatory way. For instance,
the Californian regulation establishes that the
dispatch resulting from the pool cannot be given
priority over the bilateral transactions.
• Moreover, the rescheduling should preferably be
based on economic signals that would give an
estimate of how costly the rescheduling is for
each participant.
There are no complete and verified approaches to this
problem. Three interesting suggestions are discussed
in (Chao and Peck, 1996; McGuire, 1996; Wu and
Varaiya, 1996). In any case, all of them require the
precise and fast evaluation of the impact of a set of
transactions on security.
It must be noticed that, in this context, there is a
strong need for on-line security assessment. In
traditional environments, the system operator usually
carries out detailed off-line security analysis using
simulation software, to establish guidelines and
criteria that will be the basis of a secure operation.
On the other hand, generation and load patterns are
relatively predictable: generating units are usually
operated according to yearly and seasonal schedules.
On the other hand, a highly competitive market with
bilateral transactions can lead to rapidly varying
generation and load patterns, caused by price
differences, contractual arrangements for fuel supply,
etc. In this circumstance, there is no much support
for a seasonal generation plan, unexpected events are
more likely to occur, and a rapid response to each
incident is absolutely required.
Different artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have
been applied to security problems. The most
promising developments are based on neural
networks, decision trees, pattern recognition, etc.
They are based on the off-line analysis of a large set
of power system operation points and contingencies,
to generate a data base of examples. These examples
are later treated with an automatic learning algorithm
to extract security criteria.

However, only a few research groups have developed
and tested realistic-size applications (Cauley, Kumar
et aI., 1993; Niebur, 1993; Wehenkel and Pavella,
1993; Wehenkel, 1994), and the development of an
on-line tool integrated in an control centre is not yet
accomplished. Moreover, there is no commercially
available system to support the generation of the data
base of examples.
8. KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS FOR
TRADING SUPPORT
Transparency and availability of information are
required to obtain an efficient market. A solid
structure of information processing and data
communication systems will be require to make sure
that all agents have access to the relevant data and can
make informed decisions, and the regulation has
acknowledged this importance. For instance, the US
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has
established the basis for the so called Open Access
Same-Time Information System (OASIS), that will
be the basis of the US electricity marketplace.
Trading support systems are already offered by control
centre manufacturers (MPS, 1996). Nevertheless, for
the time being they are just data management tools
that do not provide much support to the traders.
Knowledge engineering techniques can be of use in
this task, and there are some interesting developments
or proposals. Unfortunately, given the commercially
sensitive character of the information concerning
these systems, it is difficult to find details in the
technical literature.
An interesting example of expert system for trading
support is described in (Robson, Whittington et aI.,
1996). It has been developed in Scotland to support
one of the utilities there in their spot electricity sales.
Scottish Power and Scottish Hydro-Electric are
vertically integrated utilities that are external
members of the English pool. They can bid into the
pool, as well as sell energy to their own customers
(while the English utilities are obliged to sell all
their energy into the pool). Additionally, the Scottish
can trade electricity among themselves. For instance,
if one of the companies has a temporary
unavailability of a power plant, it can buy the default
from the English Pool or from the other one.
The expert system is designed to support the traders
of Scottish Hydro-Electric in negotiating the price for
these sales, taking into account:
The pool price, since it is the alternative price
that the buyer could pay to obtain energy.
The state of the interconnection with England, to
determine if the buyer could have access to it.
The perceived need for power of the buyer.
An interesting, albeit still preliminary, proposal of
expert system to assist in the preparation of bids in a
1066
pool environment is described in (Nieto, 1996). This
system will evaluate the situation of the generation
plant, the evolution of the wholesale pool prices, the
actual costs and other information to propose a bid.
9. AI FOR MODELLING AND CONTROLLING
CUSTOMERS
The ability to accurately forecast electricity demand
will be increasingly important in a competitive
environment, since it will allow the power marketers
to negotiate good prices for the energy that they buy.
There are many applications of neural networks in
demand forecasting, that will not be reported here.
But there are also approaches based on innovative
applications of fuzzy techniques. For instance,
(Michalik and Mielczarski, 1996) describes a system
to develop models of consumption patterns of
domestic customers. The system is based on surveys
focused on the use of several electrical appliances.
The main problem with these surveys is that they are
only reasonably accurate if the sample of customers
is big enough: the load curve obtained for a reduced
sample can be quite different from the total load
curve. As a solution for this, the proposed system
makes use of fuzzy filters to represent the uncertainty
that is contained in the customers' responses to the
surveys. These filters produce a "fuzzified" version of
the customer's load curve. Thus, the load curve
obtained from a reduced customers' sample is much
closer to the one corresponding to a large population.
On the other hand, direct load control can be used to
reduce peak demand, allowing to contract less
capacity (thus reducing the fixed payments of the
contracts). Nevertheless, load control must take into
account that the satisfaction of the customer will be
the first priority in a liberalized market.
An interesting system that makes use of fuzzy
techniques to control air conditioning equipment is
described in (Bhattacharyya and Crow, 1996).
10. CONCLUSIONS
Artificial intelligence techniques could provide
efficient solutions to some of the planning and
operation problems that arise in competitive
electricity markets. However, for the time being,
only prototypes are available for the most promising
applications. The development of industrial products
still requires a significant amount of work. There are
on-going research efforts concerning the tasks and
tools of the system operator, that will probably
provide useful results in the next future.
Unfortunately, since some of the applications in
other aspects of power system planning and operation
can constitute important competitive advantages for
their owners, the development of collaborative
research efforts in these areas will be more unlikely.

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