KARATINA UNIVERSITY

UNIVERSITY EXAMINATIONS
2020/2021 ACADEMIC YEAR

FOURTH YEAR FIRST SEMIESTER REGULAR

EXAMINATION

FOR THE DEGREE OF

BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN APPLIED STATISTICS WITH

COMPUTING
AND
BACHELOR OF SCIENCE

COURSE CODE:STA 427

COURSE TITLE: SURVIVAL MODELS AND

ANALYSIS

DATE:18TH DECEMBER 2020 TIME:9.00AM-12.00PM

INSTRUCTIONTOCANDIDATES
.SEEINSIDE

STA 427: Survival Models & Analysis Page 1 of 6

 INSTRUCTIONS: ANSWERALLQUESTIONS IN SECTION AANDANY
OTHERTHREEIN SECTION B.

SECTIONA (31 Marks)

,s
QUESTION ONE (12 marks)
(a) Ompare the advantages and disadvantages of fully parametric models and
ne Lox regression model for assessing the impact of covariates on survival.

(2 marks)
(6 Define the following terms as used in the analysis of survival data:

i) Censoring. (1 mark)
(ii) Hazard function.
(1 mark)
iii) Median Survival.
(1 mark)
(c) Differentiate between the following terms:

(i) Informative and non -

informative censoring. (2 marks)

(i) Right and left
censoring (2 marks)
(d) The Weibull survival distribution can be characterized by hazard function
M) =ayt"Determine the:
i) Survival function for the Weibull distribution.
(2 marks)
(ii) Probability density function for the Wcibull distribution.
(1 mark)

QUESTION TWO (19 marks)

Consider the survival times of 11 melanoma
patients who were treated with
Treatment 1 =
BCG given in the table below.
(Survival times are in months)

Patient Treatment Survivall

Number Received Time
33.7+

3.9
3
10.5
5.4 2
A 19.5
23.8+
7
7.9
16.9+
9
16.6+
10 33.7+1
11 17.1+

STA 427: Survival Models &

Analysis Page 2 of 6

- tT
(a) gnore the censoring indicators for treatment group 1 (BCG) for the moment

(that is, treat all times as failure times). Compute the Kaplan-Meir estimator of
the survival function for this (3 marks)
treatment group
(b) NOW s e the censoring indicators as given in the table. Compute the Kaplan-

e i r estimator of the survival function for this treatment group. (5 marks)

Flot on the same graph the Kaplan-Meir estimator of the survival functions tor

the two
groups (Censored and Uncensored).
Interpret any differences between the two curves. (3 marks)
(d) Compute 95% confidence limits on the survival function for treatment group
using Greenwood's formula. Comment on the adequacy of the limits,

especially at the earlier survival times. (6 marks)

(e) Compute the median survival time. (2 marks)

SECTION B(39 Marks)

QUESTION THREE (13 marks)

The following life table shows data on time to HIV development for a sample of 100

individuals with STD but free of HIV at time 0.

Year Interval Number of HIV positive Number

Lost to follow-up
0-2 1

2-4 2

4-6

6-8 8

8-10 18
10-12 3 20

12-14 8 16

Compute the life table for these data.

(13maks

3
STA 427: Survival Models & Analysis

3
 QUESTION FOUR (13 marks)
he data
below shows survival
times (in months) of
patients with Hodgkin's disease
Who were treated
with
nitrogen mustards. Group A patients received heavy prior
therapy, whereas Group B
patients received little or no prior therapy.
Group A: 22/16, 181, 20+, 244
Group B: 18, 19,19, 28
At 5% level of
significance;
(a) Compare the survival
distributions of the two
therapy groups usingGehans
generalized Wilcoxon test.
(b) Compute the linear rank (7 marks)
type variance
-

and the linear rank

for the data set. type -Statistic
(6 marks)
QUESTION FIVE (13 marks)
A study was done to assess the effects of
treatment on the duration of steroid
induced remission for 42 -

acute leukaemia
The variable patients.
definitions are given below:
Variable name Description
sex
Gender (1 =
male, 2
logwbc
=

female)
log (base 10) white blood cell count
trt
Treatment (1 placebo, 0
=

treatment)
=
- R.133.
Survtimne Time to
relapse (weeks)
status Status (0= censored, 1 =

relapse)
non The
following SAS code was used to fit several models to the
nn-t Model 1 proclifetest
data.

strata sex;
time survtime"status (0);
run;

Model 2:
procphreg;
model survtime"status (0) =
sex trtlogwbe;
run;

Model 3:
procphreg
strata sex;
model survtime*status
(0) =

trtlogwbc;
run;

STA 427: Survival Models &

Analysis Page 4 of 6
Model 4:
procphreg
model survtime'status =
sex (0) trtlogwbcsextime;
sextime = log (survtinme) * sex;

run;

(a)
model for Model 2.
( Write out the form of the Cox proportional hazards
(2 marks)

versus
ratio for males
that the hazard
Using this model, demonstrate
(3 marks)
emales satisfies the assumption of "proportionality".

(b) estimate of the log

Which of the models 1 -4
would not provide an
(1 (2 marks)
hazard ratio for the gender effect?
test statistic (Score,
4 would not provide a
Which of the models 1
-

(11) (1 mark)
Wald or LR) for the gender effect?

could be used as a basis for graphically

Which of the models 1 -4
(i) sex, while
hazards assumption for
assessing the proportional (2 1marks)
other covariates?
controlling for the
(3marks)
assessment would be done.
Describe how this
(ii)

QUESTION SIX (13 marks)

(2 marks)
Describe the Cox regression moclel.
) (2 marks)
model?
Why is this the semi parametric
i)
the Cox model often called
a proportional hazards model?
(ii) Why is
(2 marks)
Explain it carefully..
times for a group of patients on a treatmernt (+
(b) Consider the following survival
follow the exponential distribution with parameter
denote right censored) that

9+, 10+, 10. 11t, 19 16. 17t, 19+, 20+,2 B, 25+, 32+,34+,
32+,

35+

Page 5 of 6
STA 427: Survival Models & Analysis
 Calculate the maximum likelihood estimate of the parameter of the distribution.

Hint: The pdf of an exponential distribution is defined as:

I>0
(7 marks)
0, elsewhere
QUESTION SEVEN (13 marks)
(a)
(1 Show that the relationship between S(U) and A0) can be expressed as

(3 marks)
ii) Show that the relationship between S() and A) can be expressed as

S)= e7A()
(3 marks)
[Assume that T is a continuous random variablej
(b) Given the survivorship function S()= exp(-"}; derive the:

(i) Probability density function (2 marks)

(i) Hazard function. (2 marks)
(ii) Cumulative hazard function. (3 marks)

STA 427: Survival Models & Analysis Page 6 of 6