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* In spite of the trend toward diversification during and thus, it is expected that merging and employing
the past decade, relatively little is known about the similar distributionchannels or productiontechnology
relationshipbetween financial performanceand the ex- will result in incremental value. Obviously, such
tent to which a firm diversifies. This study relates economies cannot be realized by shareholders simply
several measures of financial performance to the de- diversifying their own portfolios. In addition, this type
gree of relatedness of a firm's operations. The empiri- of relateddiversification will also be likely to affect the
cal question of whether shareholdervalue is increased combined firm's systematic risk. This results because
through increasing amounts of diversification is inves- the synergy created by related diversification is likely
tigated. The study concludes that firms diversifying to affect the individual earnings streams (not necessar-
into unrelatedareas have been able to generate superior ily linearly), which in turn non-trivially affect the de-
performance over those with predominantly related termination of beta. However, because the earnings
businesses. streams resulting from related diversification are sub-
From the firm's perspective the decision whether to stantially correlated (e.g., earlier-than-expectedtech-
diversify into a related or unrelatedbusiness is primar- nological obsolescence of a similar production tech-
ily based on two conflicting considerations. On one nology), it is unlikely that total risk will be
hand, diversifying into a related field is likely to yield significantly reduced.
more synergism than pure conglomeration or highly On the other hand, unrelated diversification is less
unrelateddiversification. The management is familiar likely to produce significant operating synergies. With
with the marketsor technology of the related business, the beta of the combined businesses calculated as the
weighted average of the individual betas, the systemat-
The authorswish to thankJocelyn Bourgetfor excellent researchassis- ic risk of the combined businesses is unlikely to be
tance and the two anonymousreferees for their helpful suggestions. substantiallyaffected. Chung and Weston [2], howev-
18
er, suggest the potential carry-overof general manage- Exhibit 1. Specialization Ratio, Related Ratio, and
ment functions, such as planning, controlling, and or- Vertical Ratio Determination for American Home
ganizing. Although finance is a specific management Products
function, they suggest that because of the broad gener- in EachSegment
Percentage
ality of its applications, it is also a transferablefunc- 1975 1981
tion. Combining both systematic and unsystematic
A. All Business Segments
risk, the effect of pure conglomeration is thus likely to Prescriptiondrugs 39.0 42.0
result in total risk reduction. Packagedmedicines 14.0 13.7
In sum, related diversification, therefore, is likely to Food products 22.0 19.1
Household products 25.0 25.1
yield potential synergy, has little total risk reduction,
B. Related Business Segments
and has an uncertain impact on the level of systematic
Prescriptiondrugs 39.0 42.0
risk. In contrast, unrelateddiversification is not likely
Packagedmedicines 14.0 13.7
to yield potential synergy, has little effect on the
Related ratio 53.0 55.7
weighted average systematic risk, but has the potential Average related ratio 54.3
to reduce total risk. Thus, a priori, the direction of Specializationratio 39.0 42.0
change in risk-adjusted performance associated with Vertical ratio 0.0 0.0
relatedand unrelateddiversification is ambiguous and,
thus, ex ante indeterminate. business. It measures the degree to which a firm's
This study differs from the previous studies men- revenues are dependent on this single business seg-
tioned in that it investigates financial performanceas a ment. Prescription drugs is the segment from which
function of the degree of a firm's diversification. It American Home Products derives the largest fraction
extends the pioneering work of Richard Rumelt [9], of its revenues. As such, it is the segment from which
who evaluated firms at ten-year intervals, 1949, 1959 the specialization ratio is derived. The percentages of
and 1969. He related financial performance to the fol- revenues attributableto this segment, correspondingto
lowing firm classifications: single product, dominant the specialization ratio, are 39% in 1975 and 42% in
product, related products, and unrelatedproducts. Our 1981.
study focuses only on Rumelt's categories of related Because this study focuses only on the relationship
and unrelated product diversification. This study not between performance and the degree of relatedness in
only updates Rumelt's work, but also utilizes market business diversification, highly specialized or single
measures of financial performance rather than ac-
product firms are not included. Following Rumelt's
counting measures. In addition, a determination is categorization, if a firm's specialization ratio is greater
made of the degree to which a firm's operating compo- than 70% it is considered a dominant or single product
nents are related, whereas Rumelt classified firms as firm and accordingly is not included in the sample.
entirely related or unrelated. The vertical ratio is defined as the percentage of
Section I presents the methodology and data used in revenue each year attributableto the largest group of
the paper. The results are provided in Section II with
vertically integratedbusinesses. In the case of Ameri-
the conclusions presented in Section III. can Home Productsnone of the businesses are vertical-
ly integrated, thus resulting in a vertical ratio of zero.
I. Methodology and Data However, those firms with a significant fraction of
In order to determine the degree to which a firm's their output vertically linked were considered to be
operations are related, several ratios suggested by Ru- more closely allied to a dominant business than a di-
melt were obtained. They include a specialization ra- versified firm. More precisely, firms with a vertical
tio, a vertical ratio, and a related ratio (RR). To illus- ratiogreaterthan 70% were not included in the sample.
tratethe calculation and use of these ratios, an example Rumelt also used this cutoff to separate related firms
describing American Home Products is presented in from those more concentrated in a single line of busi-
Exhibit 1. The data in Exhibit 1, which is used to ness.
determine the ratios, were obtained from information The related ratio is defined as the proportion of a
provided in the firms' annual reports, in 10Ks, and in firm's revenues attributableto its largest group of relat-
Moody's Industrial Manual. ed businesses. Three factors were considered to deter-
The specialization ratio is defined as the percentage mine the related ratio for a firm:
of the firm's revenues attributableto its largest single (1) percentage of business using same technology;
(2) percentage of business which is marketed not encounteredby more entrepreneurialventures. The
through the same distribution channels; sample used by Rumelt was also comprised of large
(3) vertical ratio, if it is less than 70%. firms, with his sample selected from the Fortune 500.
While other operational definitions could have been As such, in analyzing both Rumelt's results and those
selected, the related ratio was defined for the purpose presented in this paper, it is useful to recall the special
of this study as the maximum value of these criteria. characteristics of the samples.
This selection considers the degree of similarity of the Two approaches were used to determine the rela-
firm's marketsand productiontechnology as well as its tionship between relatedness and performance. The
ability to make use of captive markets for its own first approach analyzes the relationship between an
production. For American Home Products both the individual company's performance and its degree of
technology and the marketing channels are virtually relatedness, while the second approach groups firms
identical for prescription drugs and packaged medi- into portfolios and then considers the relationship be-
cines. The related ratios for both 1975 and 1981 are tween portfolio performanceand the degree of related-
thus determined by adding the percentage of revenues ness. In addition, the performance of those firms
in each of the related segments during each of the which have been rejected as unstable is compared with
respective years. The resulting related ratios are 53% that of the 51 firms included in the study.
in 1975 and 55.7% in 1981.
The determination of the ratios typically required A. Individual Firm Performance
judgmental input from the researchers. While efforts Individual firm performance was measured using
were made to reduce any resulting bias, the evaluation the Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen measures. As inputs
of firms' operating data by the researchersdoes repre- to the Treynor and Jensen measures, the betas for each
sent a potential source of judgmental bias. Firms for security were obtained using the excess returnform of
which data were not available on either the CRSP or the CAPM:
the Compustattapes or for which the degree of related-
ness could not be determined were not included in the Ri,- Rt = aj+ bi(Rn,-Rlt) + i,,,
sample. Also rejected were firms showing a relatively where R,-R, = excess return above the risk-free
unstablerelatedratio (varying more than 15%)over the
rate on stock i in month t, and
period investigated. The period included the 60 where Rn,-R,, = excess returnon the market portfo-
months from January 1, 1976 through December 31,
lio in month t, and
1980. The related ratio was determined from 1975 and
where E(s,) 0.
1980 financial information.' Furthermore, if the per-
centage change in the related ratio was less than 15%, The monthly return of a value-weighted portfolio of
but the composition of the related segments changed NYSE stocks was selected to represent the marketre-
over time (e.g., one or more related segments have turn. The risk-free rate, Rf,, was estimated by the
been replaced by other segments), the firms were also
monthly T-bill returns and was obtained from the Ib-
rejected as unstable. By updating Rumelt's analysis, botson-Sinquefield tape.
this study encounters a different economic environ- The three measures of performance are calculated:
ment. The three decades covered by Rumelt were more
stable, with lower inflation and lower interest rates R- R0
than the last half of the 1970s. This period was charac- Sharpe Measure:
terized by considerable uncertainty precipitated to a
large degree by the oil shock. The initial sample con- R R-R
sisted of the Fortune 250 from which 51 firms met the Treynor Measure:
criteriarequiredfor inclusion in this study. The sample bi
thus is likely to be relatively large and more mature
Jensen Measure: RI- [R + b(R - Rt)],
than a random selection of firms. While the sample
may be relatively stable comparedto less maturefirms, where R. = geometric average return on stock i,
the sampled firms may face problems of low growth Ri = geometric average returnon risk-free se-
curity,
'In several instances, informationin the desired year was unavailable. RG = geometric average return on the market
in which case informationfrom the prioror succeeding year was used. portfolio,
ci = standarddeviation of monthly rate of re- (2) Equal Range. The related ratios varied from
turn. 34.5% to 100%. Using this approach, equal
ranges between 34.5% and 100% were con-
Because of the well-documented increase in debt ca- structed. Twelve firms were included in the
pacity of conglomerates (i.e., Mead [4], Weston [13], portfolio with the lowest related ratios. Sixteen
Weston and Mansinghka [12], Melicher and Rush [5, were included in the second portfolio, and 23
6], Shrieves and Pashley [10], Chung [I], Stapleton were included in the portfolio with the highest
[I1], Michel and Shaked [7]) it was decided to assess related ratios.
whether leverage was a factor underlying the financial For each of these portfolios, the beta, the average
performance of the sampled firms. Therefore, unle- monthly portfolio return, standarddeviation, and geo-
vered betas were determined and used in recalculating metric average portfolio return were calculated over
the Treynor and Jensen measures. The unlevered beta the 60-month period of the study. The Sharpe,
is calculated from Treynor, and Jensen performance measures described
earlier were calculated for each of the portfolios.
-
In addition, a portfolio of those firms classified as
bunlevered blevered X
D unstable was constructed and the resulting perform-
[1 + (1-T)] ance measures were calculated. The firms included as
E unstable either increased or decreased their related ra-
tios by more than 15% over the 60-month period or
where T = tax rate calculated from
changed the composition of their related segments over
the period. Twenty-one firms were considered unsta-
income tax
ble and included in the portfolio. Because of sample
income after taxes + income tax size considerations, no attempt was made to segregate
the unstable firms into those that have moved toward
D more relatedness or more conglomeration.
and - = ratio of long-term debt to equity.
E II. Results
The results suggest that non-related diversification
The unlevered beta (bu)performancemeasures were
leads to improved performance over related diversifi-
then calculated as follows:
cation. The results are most evident in the second part
of this study which relates portfolio performanceto the
R?-R,
Treynor Measure (unlevered beta) relatedness of operating segments of the firm. Howev-
bu er, the results can also be observed in the analysis of
individual performance. The Appendix presents the
Jensen Measure (unlevered beta) relatednessratios and performancemeasures of each of
R-iR + bu(R - Rf)] the 51 firms included in the study. The betas and stan-
dard deviations of return used to derive the perform-
Each of the five performance measures described
ance measures are calculated over the 60-month period
above was then regressed on the associated related
of the study. This permits the appropriatecalculation
ratio to determine if a relationship exists between fi-
of each of the performance measures over the same
nancial performance and the degree of relatedness.
period.
To determine the relationship between the perform-
B. Portfolio Performance
ance of individual firms and the degree of relatedness,
Two types of portfolio groupings were used to relate the following regressions were run:
portfolio performance and the degree of business seg-
ment relatedness. Performance measurea = a+b(Related ratio),.
(1) Equal Number. Of the 51 securities in the
sample, 17 were placed in each of 3 portfolios. As indicated by Exhibit 2, in each of the regressions
This placement was based on their related ratio, the coefficient of the relatedness ratio is negative.
with the 17 having the lowest related ratio in While the value of the negative term is small, each
portfolio 1, the 17 with the next lowest in port- of the regressions is significant, at least at the .05
folio 2, and so on. level. The results therefore suggest a small but signifi-
Exhibit 2. Individual Firm's Regression Results: Per- ratio of the portfolio increases. Moreover, in order to
formance vs. Relatedness Ratio* evaluate whether the mean performance measures dif-
Slope F Signifi- fer significantly across portfolios, t-tests have been
Constant (Std. Error) Statistic cance performed where the t-statistic is given by
Sharpe Measure .1836 -.0015 4.30 .045
(.0007) (ni- )s+ (ni- l)s2 I 1
TreynorMeasure calc -ni+n (n- l)+(n-l) n n
Standard .0131 -.0001 3.93 .050
(.00006)
Unleveraged .0253 -.0002 6.57 .015 where
(.00009)
Jensen Measure nk = number of firms in portfolio k,
Standard .0080 -.0001 5.43 .030 s2 = variance of the performancemeasure for port-
(.00005) folio k,
Unleveraged .0108 -.0001 5.45 .030
a = significance level.
(.00005)
*Thefirm'sperformancemeasureis the regression'sdependentvariable The cases where the mean performance measures dif-
and the relatednessratio is the independentvariable.
fer significantly across portfolios are presented in Ex-
hibit 4. Although not all differences across portfolios
cant inverse relationship between financial perform- are statistically significant, the results indicate a mono-
ance and the degree of relatedness. tonic decrease in the performancemeasure as the relat-
The results are more evident in the case where the ed ratio increases. For example, while Exhibit 3 indi-
firms are grouped into portfolios. Exhibit 3 illustrates cates that the Sharpe measure for the low related
the relationship between the financial performance of portfolio (P1) is .215 and for the medium related ratio
the portfolios and their degree of relatedness. With portfolio (P2) is . 142, as shown in Exhibit 4, the differ-
both the equal number and equal range methods of ence is not statistically significant. However, the mean
portfolio construction, it is evident that all of the per- Sharpe measure for the low relatedness portfolio (PI)
formance measures tend to decrease as the degree of is significantly higher than that for the high relatedness
relatedness increases. portfolio (P3). This informationis contained in Exhibit
For example, using the method in which there are an 4 in the cells entitled P 1>P2 and P I >P3 for the Sharpe
equal numberof firms in each portfolio, the three port- measureapplied to the equal size portfolio. An asterisk
folios have mean related ratios of 50.2, 75.5, and denotes that the difference is significant at 5%. From
98.5. The associated Sharpe measures are respectively Exhibit 4 it is evident that some of the inequalities are
.215, .142, and .088. Similarly, each of the other significant under the equal size analysis and were not
performance measures decreases as the mean related significant under the equal range analysis. However,
likely to be associated with the degree of relatedness 10. R.E. Shrieves and M.M. Pashley, "A Test of Financial
ratherthan with any instability in the extent of diversi- Economics Through Increased Leverage Merger Theor-
fication. ies," Working Paper, University of Tennessee (August
1980).
III. Conclusions 11. R.C. Stapleton, "Mergers, Debt Capacity, and the Valu-
ation of CorporateLoans," in M. Keenanand L.J. White
The evidence suggests that firms diversifying in un-
(eds.), Mergers and Acquisitions, Lexington, MA, Lex-
related areas are able to generate statistically superior
ington Books, 1982, pp. 9-28.
performance over those with businesses that are pre- 12. J.F. Weston and S.K. Mansinghka, "Tests of Efficiency
dominantly related. Given the micro nature of this Performanceof ConglomerateFirms," Journalof Finance
study, evaluating the degree of business segment di- (September1971), pp. 919-956.
versification obviously involves significant judgment 13. J.F. Weston, "DiversificationandMergersTrends," Busi-
on the part of the researcher. Unfortunately, methods ness Economics (January1970), pp. 50-57.
other than a painstaking review of annual reports,
lOKs and Moody's, are not available for this type of
research. Furthermore, because of the subjective na-
ture of researcher input into the analysis, the conclu-
sions must be viewed as tentative until other research-
ers are able to support these results. Furtherresearch
would be useful to determine whether studies using
other definitions of business-segment diversification
would yield similar conclusions.
References
1. K.S. Chung, "Tests of Synergies from Diversification,"
Working Paper, Graduate School of Management,
U.C.L.A. (August 1980).
2. K.S. Chungand J.F. Weston, "Diversificationand Merg-
ers in a Strategic Long-Range Planning Framework," in
M. Keenan and L.J. White (eds.), Mergers and Acquisi-
tions, Lexington, MA, Lexington Books, 1982, pp. 315-
347.
3. P. Elgers and J. Clark, "Merger Types and Shareholder
Returns:Additional Evidence," Financial Management
(Summer 1980), pp. 66-72.
4. W.J. Mead, "InstantaneousMergerProfit as a Conglom-
erate Merger Motive," WesternEconomic Journal (De-
cember 1969), pp. 295-306.
5. R.W. Melicherand D.F. Rush, "The Performanceof Con-
glomerate Firms: Recent Risk and Return Experience,"
Journal of Finance (May 1973), pp. 381-388.
6. "Evidence of the Acquisition-RelatedPerform-
ance of ConglomerateFirms," Journal of Finance (March
1974), pp. 141-149.
7. A. Michel and I. Shaked, "Are ConglomeratesSafer?", in
H. Levy (ed.), Research in Finance, Greenwich,CT, JAI
Press, forthcoming, 1984.
8. A. Michel, I. Shaked, and B. Yobaccio, "Evidence on
Stockholder Returns from Alternative Merger Types,"
Working Paper, Boston University School of Manage-
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9. R. Rumelt, Strategy, Structure, and Economic Perform-
ance, Cambridge,MA, HarvardUniversity Press, 1974.