a Let G be the amount you win

with equals to
you will get l l probability that
the probability you get the same colors
draw d hat r
marbles
Let Ri and Rs be the events that you draw red
marble in the first and the second draws

respectively
Let 13 Dbz to be the events that you draw
blue marbles in the first and the second draws

respectively
P same PIRI P IRI IRI PI BI DIBZI BI
P R1 I 0.5 P R1 E
o J

P Ra Ri 419 111132 131 419

plumes t E h 4
t
48 t 42 8
D different I Plame I
I 181 I
 I 1 1 18 To To
9 1.1
Paly
1
y

1
E GB 1 I C 1
84ft
f g
To I
b EGG 11 11 t 1 is

l it o d t i t o z to d

51ft
48
c No because E G 75 we meaning in a long run
we lose
Q

let De be the event that the gambler

choses a fair lain

Db choose the biased Ooni

1 PCH IDF o 5 PITI DE o J
PIDE 3
P Db 213 D HID b I PLT Db O

H l Dd
9 D IDF

RIH P HIDE DID F PCH Db P Db

I t t t I t
I
PIDE H
É 115

PIDE HH
Etty
b

Pl HH DF
PL HIDA PINDI independent
 Pl IDF PL I LDH I 111 De independents
I z 1 2
114 assumption
Pl HH Db I I 1

PL HH PL HH IDF DIDF DC HH Db P DD
I I t l
t t

P IDF HH

e plan it ith plY MD

PI HHT P I HHT IDF PIDE PI HHT Db P DD
pl Hitt Dp PI HIDA DI HIDA PIT IDF 1 8
17 HHT Db PCH Db P HIDb PIT Db I I 0 0

pl it Itt
f t t o E

P IDF HHT I

E Vav
Gy
x I x S

a E 2 45 E 4 4 13 4 EG
4
EX
E X Var x EG 5 1 6

E 2 5 4 4 I 6 14
 b Var 4 31 44 31
E 4 3 3

E 14 3 1 E 16 24 9 73 16 74 I 9 6
16 24 36 74
E 14 3 3 4 3 EAT 7
Var 4 34 74 49 25

Px Ys x 1

f
x
ay
O o W

a Rx for 1,73
b P x 7,1 5 p x D 116

c p o x 2 pix 1 13

d p x o Xa Foie
PIX 621
Pex 2 p x o p x D 72 113 516
1 x o x 2 PG c 1 2

Pl x o x z