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Lecture 9 Joint pdf and Conditioning

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Problem You are given a coin You Kss this


5 times Your goal is to determine the coin's bias
as well as
your
confidence in your estimate

Let R bias of coin

REC9D

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f per I of r E l
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Value of
X n first toss O Tails f Heads

Xz value of second loss

Xs value of 5th toss

X Xz Xs are independent
conditionally
GIVEN R r

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Given m Heads n Tails A


L and the sequence I

How does 12 change given that It has

occurred
Baye'sRule

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p
m Heads n Tai's with
given A n total
In f I p tosses
f coin
How does R change given that It has

occurred

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