Daily COVID-19 Vaccinations in Indonesia

1
Introduction

COVID-19 is a contagious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome

coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (Zimmer, C. 2021). It is the disease that started a global pandemic

in 2020 that is still ongoing, even until the time of writing of this essay. It is the disease that

resulted in the deaths of 2.45 million people worldwide and counting. Although some countries

have dealt with the pandemic properly, I cannot say that is the case with my country, Indonesia,

as we have one of the worst testing rates globally and daily COVID-19 cases continue to rise.

This is in addition to poorly conducted lockdowns as well as horribly managed COVID-19 relief

funds.

Thankfully, the COVID-19 vaccine has arrived, which would certainly help the

government in dealing with the pandemic. However, Indonesia has one of the lowest vaccination

rates out of all the countries that have begun administering vaccines. According to Our World in

Data, the 7-day average on 19 February, 2021 of people receiving vaccines is 0.02 out of every

100 people (Our World in Data, 2021). For context, Serbia is currently administering the most

vaccines at 2.03, meaning Indonesia’s vaccine rollout is 100 times slower than Serbia’s. This is

worsened by the fact that Indonesia currently has a much larger population than Serbia as

Indonesia’s population in 2019 was at 270.6 million while Serbia’s was at 6.94 million. (World

Bank, 2021).

Even the Indonesian Vice President Ma’ruf Amin stated that the Indonesian vaccine

rollout has been very slow (Anjani, A. N. 2021) as Indonesia has set the target for daily vaccines

to reach 1 million doses per day in the future. However, based on looking at the current data,

intuition suggests that that might not seem like an ideal target. Because of this, I intend to focus

2
this investigation into looking at whether it will be possible for Indonesia to reach 1 million daily

vaccine doses and if it is possible, how long it will take for that to happen.

2021 will be the first year I start university but because of the pandemic, I face many

uncertainties regarding my future. Do I study abroad if I can? Do I stay here and attend online

classes? Do I defer my admission offer to the next semester? However, if I have received the

vaccine, it would certainly remove a majority of these uncertainties as I can travel safely without

having to fear about contracting the virus anymore. As a result, I wanted to find out whether it

would be realistic for me to get vaccinated before I begin university and by modelling

Indonesia’s vaccine rollout in the future, it would help me have a better picture on whether I can

get vaccinated before university starts or not. Hence, this is why I chose to focus my research on

this topic.

Aim

The aim of this investigation is to predict the time it will take for Indonesia to reach 1

million daily vaccine doses, given the current rate of daily vaccinations that are being

administered. This will be done by first modelling the number of people being vaccinated daily

by plotting the data and then finding a function that models the data. Afterwards, the function

will be used to predict the number of days it will take by substituting 1 million as the y-value

through extrapolation, which is defined as the extension of a function by inferring unknown

values from trends in known data (Dictionary.com, 2021). Therefore, this investigation’s

parameters are set with the expectation that the current data trend will continue into the future,

even though that will not necessarily happen.

3
Analysis

For this investigation, the graphing softwares Graphmatica and Desmos were used.

Graphmatica was used for finding the best fit line of a set of data points while Desmos was used

to find intersections and maximum points as well as transforming certain graphs. A TI-Inspire

CX calculator was also used to help with calculations throughout the process. For this

investigation, 𝑥 will be the days as it is the independent variable while 𝑦 will be the number of

daily vaccinations that are administered in Indonesia.

Daily Vaccinations in Indonesia

Indonesia began administering the Sinovac COVID-19 vaccines in 13 January, 2021

(Syakriah, A. 2021). However, that was only the first dose and in order to become immune to the

disease, a person has to receive two doses. As a result, the data below only shows the second

doses that were administered as the first dose will not matter unless the person gets the second

dose. It was first administered on 28 January, 2021. This is because a minimum of 14 days has to

pass before the second Sinovac vaccine dose can be administered.

Date Day Number of People That

Received Second Dose of
Vaccines

28 January 2021 0 5468

29 January 2021 1 5819

30 January 2021 2 9523

31 January 2021 3 1738

4
 1 February 2021 4 12858

2 February 2021 5 16593

3 February 2021 6 19622

4 February 2021 7 24932

5 February 2021 8 24172

6 February 2021 9 16482

7 February 2021 10 1924

8 February 2021 11 32139

9 February 2021 12 50183

10 February 2021 13 57798

11 February 2021 14 66534

12 February 2021 15 (None due to Lunar New

Year)

13 February 2021 16 69881

Table 1. Daily Vaccinations (Second Dose) Administered in Indonesia (covid19.go.id, 2021)

Instead of the dates, days in numerical value are used and plotting the data above results in

Graph 1 below. Day 0 is used for the first day of vaccinations to ease calculations in later parts.

5
 Graph 1. Daily Vaccine Doses Administered vs. Days (after 28 January 2021)

Based on the graph, there seems to be two outliers from the rest, which are points (3,

1738) and (10, 1924). Outliers are data points that are said to be abnormal as they differ greatly

from the other data. Both of these have the two smallest 𝑦-values out of the other data points and

it is visible that they are far from the other data points. Both of these occurred on Sundays and

this might explain why the number of vaccinations on those days are so low. Although I could

not confirm the exact reason for these outliers occurring, as they have occurred for two straight

weeks on the same exact day, I assume it is because there are less medical workers working on

Sundays due to higher wages as Sundays are not considered as work days in Indonesia.

The Logistic Function

As seen from the general trend of the data, on most days the number of daily vaccinations

increases from the day before that, except for a few occasions. However, as the growth of daily

vaccinations does not look constant, this eliminates a linear function from being used as linear

functions have constant gradients, indicating constant growth. Therefore, I thought of using an

6
exponential function. However, an exponential function’s growth will never stop increasing,

which does not make sense. At one point, if the government reaches their target of daily

vaccinations, they might not intend to increase daily vaccinations anymore. In addition, there are

a finite number of healthcare workers and facilities in the country that can administer the

vaccine, meaning that at a certain point, there will be a maximum number of daily vaccinations

when all healthcare workers are already tasked with vaccinating and facilities are at full capacity.

Therefore, it would make sense for the vaccine rollout to follow a logistic function. This

is because a logistic function will first have exponential growth but after the inflection point, the

gradient of the function will gradually decrease as it approaches the carrying capacity, which is

defined as a species’ average population size in a particular habitat (National Geographic, 2021)

but in this context, it refers to the maximum doses of vaccines that can be administered daily

when workers and facilities are all fully used. It can also be defined as the value of the 𝑦

-asymptote of the function; here, an asymptote can be defined as a line where the distance

between the line and the curve approach 0 as x approaches infinity. The function’s formula is

𝑐
𝑦 = −𝑏𝑥
1 + 𝑎𝑒
where 𝑎, 𝑏, and 𝑐 are constants.

Before proceeding, it would be best to first explain the role of each of the three constants

in the logistic function; the values below are chosen randomly and are not related to the data

above. The constant 𝑎 determines where the inflection point occurs at, which is the point where

the concavity of the function changes. For logistic functions, the 𝑥-coordinate of the inflection

point is done by calculating 𝑙𝑛⁡(𝑎) and then dividing that by 𝑏 (Symbolab.com, 2021).

Substituting the 𝑥-coordinate back into the function gives the 𝑦-coordinate of the inflection

point. Therefore, a larger value of a results in a larger 𝑥-coordinate for the inflection point.

7
Graph 2 shows the impact of 𝑎 in determining the coordinate of the inflection point using two

values of 𝑎, 10 and 20.

Graph 2. Impact of 𝑎 in a Logistic Function

On the other hand, 𝑏 determines the horizontal stretch of the function. A smaller value of

𝑏 increases the horizontal stretch, meaning a larger value of 𝑏 results in a steeper curve at its

inflection point as shown in Graph 3. Two values of 𝑏 were used: 0.1 and 0.2.

8
 Graph 3. Impact of 𝑏 in a Logistic Function

Lastly, 𝑐 determines the carrying capacity of the function. This is shown below in Graph

4 where 𝑐 is set at 20 and as such, as 𝑥 approaches infinity, the 𝑦 approaches 20.

Graph 4. Impact of 𝑐 in a Logistic Function

Due to the nature of the logistic function, it would make sense for the government to use

this function to plan out the vaccine distribution. The government would plan for the number of

daily vaccines to increase continuously until it reaches their daily target. The reasoning behind

this increase is due to the number of medical workers available as well as the readily available

vaccines that Indonesia currently has. With more days passing, more medical workers are

vaccinated and can therefore be tasked with administering more vaccines. In addition, Indonesia

plans to purchase even more vaccines as they don’t have enough stock for the entire population.

Furthermore, the government can set the target of daily vaccinations by simply adjusting the 𝑐

constant of the function, making the logistic function an ideal function for the vaccine rollout in

Indonesia. Therefore, 𝑐 will represent the maximum number of daily vaccinations that can be

administered in Indonesia and based on the news report, the government should set 𝑐 at

9
1,000,000. Then, the number of days that it will take for Indonesia to achieve this target can be

calculated to achieve the aim of the investigation.

Calculating the Logistic Function

As the logistic function has three constants that will have to be calculated, three points

from Table 1 will be used to calculate the constants. The points that will be used are (0, 5468),

(8, 24172) and (16, 69881). These three points are used as they are exactly 8 days apart from

each other. As the points are spread out evenly and quite widely, it should give an accurate value

for the constants. If the points were chosen with no pattern between them and are too close

together, the logistic function might not be a good fit for the other data points. Furthermore, the

points are also not outliers from the data set. The point (0, 5468) was chosen because using

𝑥 = 0 will ease calculations.

To calculate for the logistic function, three simultaneous equations will be formed with

the three points and by process of elimination, one constant will be found. This constant will then

be used to find the other 2 by substituting in the value of said constant back into one of the

equations.

𝑐
First, all three points are substituted into the logistic function 𝑦 = −𝑏𝑥 .
1 + 𝑎𝑒

Using (0, 5468):

𝑐
5468 = −𝑏(0)
1 + 𝑎𝑒
𝑐
5468 = 1 + 𝑎(1)
5468 + 5468𝑎 = 𝑐 → (1)
Using (8, 24172):

𝑐
24172 = −𝑏(8) → (2)
1 + 𝑎𝑒
Using (16, 69881):

10
 𝑐
69881 = −𝑏(16) → (3)
1 + 𝑎𝑒

As the equation (1) does not contain the constant 𝑏, this means 𝑏 can be found through

elimination using equations (2) and (3). First, the equations (2) and (3) are rearranged so that

they are in terms of 𝑐. Then, they are equated to the first equation in terms of 𝑎, resulting in

equation (4) and (5), which are equated to each other to find 𝑏.

Converting in terms of 𝑐:

−8𝑏
(2) → 𝑐 = 24172 + 24172𝑎𝑒
−16𝑏
(3) → 𝑐 = 69881 + 69881𝑎𝑒
Equation (1) and (2):

−8𝑏
5468 + 5468 𝑎 = 24172 + 24172𝑎𝑒
−8𝑏
24172𝑎𝑒 − 5468 𝑎 =− 18704
−8𝑏
(
𝑎 24172𝑒 − 5468 = ) − 18704
−18704
𝑎 = −8𝑏 → (4)
24172𝑒 −5468
Equation (1) and (3):

−16𝑏
5468 + 5468 𝑎 = 69881 + 69881𝑎𝑒
−16𝑏
69881𝑎𝑒 − 5468𝑎 = − 64413
−16𝑏
(
𝑎 69881𝑒 − 5468 = ) − 64413
−64413
𝑎 = −16𝑏 → (5)
69881𝑒 −5468
Equation (4) and (5)

−18704 −64413
−8𝑏 = −16𝑏
24172𝑒 −5468 69881𝑒 −5468

69881𝑒
−16𝑏
− 5468 = ( −64413
−18704 )(24172𝑒 −8𝑏
− 5468)
−16𝑏 −8𝑏
69881𝑒 − 5468 = 83243. 747𝑒 − 18830. 747
−16𝑏 −8𝑏
69881𝑒 − 83243. 747𝑒 + 13362. 747 = 0 → (6)
From here, I decided that graphing equation (6) would be the easiest way to find 𝑏 and this

−𝑏
would require substituting 𝑒 with 𝑥, resulting in

16 8
69881𝑥 − 83243. 747𝑥 + 13362. 74 = 0

11
Equation (6) is plotted in Desmos and is shown to intersect the x-axis at the points (-1, 0),

−𝑏
(-0.813, 0), (0.813, 0) and (1, 0). Then, 𝑥 is changed back to 𝑒 . Therefore, 𝑏 equals to the

negative ln of the x-intercepts. However, as values in ln cannot be negative, this eliminates

points (-1, 0) and (-0.813, 0). Also, point (1, 0) results in 𝑏 having a value of 0, which is also

incorrect as this would make the function only have one constant value of 𝑦. Therefore, 𝑏 is

equal to the negative ln of 0.813.

𝑏= − ln 𝑙𝑛 (0. 813)
𝑏 = 0. 20702417
Then, 𝑏 is substituted into equation (4) to find 𝑎.

−18704
𝑎 = −8(0.20702417)
24172𝑒 −5468
𝑎 = 21. 890572
However, when 𝑏 is substituted into equation (5), it gives a different value of 𝑎.

−64413
𝑎 = −16(0.20702417)
69881𝑒 −5468
𝑎 = 22. 041912
The difference is 0.1513397, which is quite small, meaning that this difference may have risen

from the number of decimal places that were used. Therefore, to compensate for this difference, I

decided to average the two values, which results in 𝑎 having a value of 21.966242. Then, 𝑎 is

substituted into equation (1) to find 𝑐.

𝑐 = 5468 + 5468(21. 966242) = 125579. 41

However, the same problem arises here. When 𝑎 is substituted into equation (2), 𝑐 has a value of

125514.76 while with equation (3), 𝑐 has a value of 125800.54. Again, the differences are quite

minor and should arise because of the limited decimal places used. Averaging these three values

gives 𝑐 a value of 125631.57. Therefore, the logistic equation calculated is

125631.57
𝑦 = −0.20702417𝑥
1 + 21.966242𝑒
Plotting this in Graphmatica with the inputted data results in the graph below.

12
 Graph 5. Logistic Graph of Daily Vaccine Doses vs Days

The calculated logistic graph seems to model the data quite accurately as it is closely

located to most of the points, except for the two outliers. However, the maximum number of

daily vaccine doses administered is far below the national target as 𝑐 only has a value of

125631.57 and therefore all 𝑦-values are below that number. Because of this, I decided to try and

use Graphmatica’s logistic regression tool to see if there was any issue with my calculations.

Using regression differs from calculating the logistic function manually as instead of only

using 3 points from the data, the machine learning algorithm of Graphmatica uses all 17 of the

data. Then, the algorithm tries to model the function by predicting a function and then calculates

the differences in the calculated 𝑦-value based on the function with the actual 𝑦-value of a

certain 𝑥-value. This is done with all the data and then the total difference is averaged. If the

average difference is large, the algorithm tries to adjust the function to fit the data better, thus

decreasing the average difference. This process is repeated 25,000 times and the logistic function

that the algorithm finds is

13
 179476.7665
𝑦 = −0.2174𝑥
1 + 44.1966𝑒

Graph 6. Logistic Regression and Manually Calculated Logistic Function

The differences in the two functions are quite evident. As the logistic regression function

has a larger 𝑐, it makes sense that at larger 𝑥-values, the regression function is above the manual

function. However, it is still far below the target of 1 million. Furthermore, it also has a larger 𝑎

value, meaning that the inflection point is also located at larger 𝑥 and 𝑦-coordinates. On the other

hand, the value of 𝑏 is almost identical. Although at first the regression function looks steeper, as

both functions model the data quite accurately, it should mean that the steepness is similar.

As both of the logistic functions have a much smaller value of 𝑐 than 1 million, I thought

this might be because of the outliers and so I tested the logistic regression again after removing

the two outliers. In addition, I moved the days forward so that after Saturday’s data, the next data

is Monday’s. This is because I planned to see what the trajectory would look like if only 6 days

of every week is used to predict the model and whether it would eventually reach 1 million. If

the days were not moved ahead by one day and the model has 𝑐 of 1 million or more, it is very

14
unlikely for Sunday vaccinations to be at the same level as the other days. Because of this, it is

not included. (Data is available in Appendix 1).

However, to my surprise, the 𝑐 of this new model was actually smaller than the first

logistic regression as the logistic regression calculated resulted in the function

113426.3179
𝑦 = −0,268𝑥
1 + 22.0969𝑒

Graph 7. Logistic Regression Function without Outliers

In addition, the 𝑎 constant also has a smaller value while 𝑏 has a larger value. This would

make sense as the data are now more condensed than before, meaning the function would be

steeper at the inflection point. In addition, because only the 𝑥-values were altered, this would

make sense for 𝑎 to have a smaller value than before since the inflection point would be located

at a smaller 𝑥-coordinate. However, this function does have a higher coefficient of determination

2
(𝑟 ) than the first logistic regression function, which is defined as the proportion of the variance

in the dependent variable that is predictable from the independent variable. In other words, it is a

measure of how well a function models the given data. The higher the coefficient, the stronger

the relationship. As the second function has a coefficient of 0.9344 while the first function only

15
has a coefficient of 0.8344, the second function models the data better which is expected given

the removal of the outliers.

From here, because none of the models have 𝑐 at 1 million, I decided to set 𝑐 at 1 million

right away and then derive 𝑎 and 𝑏 from there to see. To do this, I am choosing to use the data in

Appendix 1 which removes the outliers from the function. As the regression function with no

outliers has a higher coefficient of determination, predictions made from the data used should be

more accurate, given the increased strength of relationship between 𝑥 and 𝑦. As only two

constants are calculated, only two points are required. This would mean that the function would

only pass through the two selected points and because of this, some trial and error was required

before I decided to use (0, 5468) and (11, 32139). Then, the equation found is

1000000
𝑦 = −0,199881568𝑥
1 +181.88222𝑒
The calculations were similar to the calculations for the previous model. As such, the

calculations for the equation above can be found in Appendix 2 to avoid repetitiveness.

Graph 8. Logistic Function When c is Set to 1 Million

16
 The constant 𝑏 in the function is of a smaller value than all the previous functions,

indicating that the graph is less steep at the inflection point. On the other hand, the constant 𝑎 is

much larger as it takes more days for the model to even begin approaching 1 million. Therefore,

the inflection point is set at a larger 𝑥-coordinate as well.

However, as 1 million was set as the carrying capacity, even at large 𝑥-values, the 𝑦-value

will only approach 1 million. The only possible way for 𝑦 to reach 1 million is if the

−0,199881568𝑥
denominator is 1, which would require 181. 88222𝑒 to equal 0. This will not

actually happen but it will approach 0 with a large value of 𝑥 so using limits, I set x to approach

infinity.

−0,199881568𝑥
(1 + 181. 88222𝑒 ) = 1 + 181. 88222(0) = 1
As ∞ , the limit, which in this case is the denominator of the function, becomes 1. This

shows that only at ∞ will the 𝑦-value equal 1000000. However, this would mean that after an

infinite number of days, Indonesia’s daily vaccinations will be at 1,000,000, which does not

conclude the investigation as it does not give a precise amount of days. Because of this, I decided

to set the limit at a large enough 𝑥-value so that the denominator of the function is close to 1,

which would result in the 𝑦-value still approaching 1000000. To do this, I figured that a value of

1.0001 for the denominator was a small enough number as it approaches 1, which would lower

Indonesia’s target for daily vaccinations below 1 million but it would still remain at a very high

amount. Then, the 𝑥-value can be calculated.

−0,199881568𝑥
1 + 181. 88222𝑒 = 1. 0001
−0,199881568𝑥
181. 88222𝑒 = 0. 0001
−0,199881568𝑥
𝑒 = 0. 00000055
−𝑙𝑛⁡(0.00000055)
𝑥= 0.199881568
𝑥 = 72. 109438

17
 Rounding this value off, it would mean 𝑥 = 73. Substituting this value into the function

would give a 𝑦-value of 999,916.28 or approximately 999,916 the difference is only by 84

vaccine doses, which is a very small difference.

However, 73 was not the final amount of days required since Sundays were not included

in the calculations. Therefore, 73 is divided by 6 to give the number of weeks. This results in 12

weeks and with a remainder of one day, or 85 days including Sundays. Adding this to 28 January

2021, the first day where Indonesia began administering the second dose of the COVID-19

vaccine, would mean that on 24 April 2021, based on the logistic model used, Indonesia would

be able to administer 999,916 vaccine doses daily.

In the end, however, this is merely a prediction, especially because the data was

extrapolated. There is no guarantee that the number of daily vaccinations will continue to

increase as there are many contributing factors in the distribution and administering of the

vaccines, not just the number of days that have gone past. This includes available vaccines in

stock, delivery, financing, and many others. However, as the government did state that they plan

to have 1 million vaccines per day, independent of whether they actually achieve the goal, there

is still the possibility that the plan is similar to Graph 8 as it takes into account both existing data

and the target.

Conclusion

This investigation was able to answer the aim through the generated model which

predicts that after 85 days, Indonesia should be able to administer 999,916 vaccines daily,

excluding Sundays. However, this number is below the government’s target of 1 million daily

doses because of the carrying capacity of the logistic function. Because the data was

extrapolated, the model is not guaranteed to accurately predict the vaccine distribution in the

18
coming weeks and months since there are many factors that can affect the vaccine distribution.

However, regardless of the actual result, there is a possibility that the government’s plan to

distribute the vaccines follows a similar function, based on the data that is available as well as

the government’s target.

Other than extrapolation, another limitation of this investigation is the amount of data that

was used. Because Indonesia was still in the early stages of its vaccine distribution during the

writing of this investigation, there was only limited amounts of data that could be used to

generate the model. If more data were used, it would certainly help to generate a more accurate

model to predict the vaccine distribution.

Another limitation of this investigation was that none of the calculated logistic functions

actually reached the 1 million target. Because of this, I had to create a function where the target

has been initially set and although it seems like the model fits the data accordingly, the

coefficient of determination was not calculated in this investigation. Therefore, a further

investigation could check to see whether the coefficient of determination of the last logistic

function is strong enough or not. In addition, while laborious, an extended investigation could

perhaps find the two best points that should be used to model the function based on the highest

coefficient of determination.

19
References

Anjani, A. N. (2021) Akui Vaksinasi Covid-19 Masih Lamban, Ma'ruf Amin: Target Itu

Satu Juta dalam Sehari, Pikiran-Rakyat.com. Available at: https://www.pikiran-

rakyat.com/nasional/pr-011502576/akui-vaksinasi-covid-19-masih-lamban-

maruf-amin-target-itu-satu-juta-dalam-sehari (Accessed: 27 February 2021).

Dictionary.com (2021). Definition of extrapolation Available at:

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/extrapolation (Accessed: 22 February 2021).

Our World in Data (2021). Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and

Research. Available at: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations (Accessed:

20 February 2021).

World Bank (2021). Population, total - Indonesia | Data Available at:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=ID (Accessed: 20

February 2021).

World Bank (2021). Serbia | Data Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/country/RS

(Accessed: 20 February 2021).

Syakriah, A. (2021) Indonesia allows emergency use of Sinovac vaccine, The Jakarta

Post. Available at:

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2021/01/11/indonesia-allows-emergency-us

e-of-sinovac-vaccine.html (Accessed: 20 February 2021).

20
Symbolab (2021). Functions Inflection Points Calculator Available at:

https://www.symbolab.com/solver/function-inflection-points-calculator/inflection

%20points%20f%5Cleft(x%5Cright)%3D20%2F%5Cleft(1%20%2B%205e%5E

%7B%5Cleft(-0.2x%5Cright)%7D%5Cright) (Accessed: 21 February 2021).

Zimmer, C. (2021). The Secret Life of a Coronavirus Available at:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/26/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-alive-dead.htm

l (Accessed: 19 February 2021).

21
Appendix

Appendix 1

Date Day Second Doses Administered

28 January 2021 0 5468

29 January 2021 1 5819

30 January 2021 2 9523

1 February 2021 3 12858

2 February 2021 4 16593

3 February 2021 5 19622

4 February 2021 6 24932

5 February 2021 7 24172

6 February 2021 8 16482

8 February 2021 9 32139

9 February 2021 10 50183

10 February 2021 11 57798

11 February 2021 12 66534

12 February 2021 13 (None due to Lunar New

Year)

13 February 2021 14 69881

Table 2. Daily Vaccinations (Second Dose) Administered in Indonesia, excluding Sundays

(covid19.go.id, 2021)

22
Appendix 2

Using (0, 5468)

1000000
5468 = −𝑏(0)
1 + 𝑎𝑒
1000000
5468 = 1 + 𝑎(1)
5468 + 5468𝑎 = 1000000
1000000−5468
𝑎= 5468
𝑎 = 181. 88222

Using (11, 32139):

1000000
32139 = −𝑏(11)
1 + 181.88222𝑒
−𝑏(11) 1000000
181. 88222𝑒 = 32139 − 1
−𝑏(11) 1000000
𝑒 = ( 32139 − 1)÷181. 88222
−𝑏(11)
𝑒 = 0. 16557333
𝑏 =− ln 𝑙𝑛 (0. 16557333) ÷ 11
𝑏 = 0. 199881568

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