Indian Institute of Information Technology, Pune

End-Semester Examination
Probability and Random Process
Course: S. Y. B. Tech. (Semester III) Academic Year: 2021 - 2022
Duration: 1.5 Hour (3 p m- 4:30 pm) Max. Marks: 40
Date: 07/12/2021 Student MIS No.:
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Instructions:
(1) All questions are compulsory.
(2) Figures to the right indicate maximum marks.
(3) Mobile phones and programmable calculators are strictly prohibited.

OBJECTIVE

Choose correct alternative for following MCQ [each carry 1 mark]

i. Three boys A, B and C are throwing a ball to each other. A always throws the ball to B and B
always throws the ball to C, but C is as likely to throw the ball to B as to A. If the initial
probability distribution of three states A, B and C is (0.3, 0.4, 0.3), then what is the (
)

(a) (b) (c) (d) 0.61

ii. In local market, there are 3 brands of lipsticks X, Y and Z. Given that a lady last purchased a
lipstick of brand X, there is 70% chance that she would continue brand X, 20% and 10%
chances that she would shift to brands Y and Z, respectively. Given that a lady last purchased
brand Y, there is 50% chance that she would shift to brand X and 10% chance to brand Z.
Given that a lady last purchased brand Z, there is 60%, 20% chance that she would shift to
brands X and Y respectively. The present market share of the 3 brands X, Y and Z is 60%,
30% and 10%, respectively. Using this information, find the probability that a brand Y
purchaser will purchase brand X three time periods from now.

(a) 0.12 (b) 0.24 (c) 0.52 (d) 0.63

iii. A man either drives his bike or takes car to work each day. Suppose he never takes the car on
two consecutive days, but if he drives to work by bike, then the next day he is likely to drive
the bike again or a car. Find the probability that he changes by going by car to driving by
bike exactly in four days?

(a) 5/8 (b) 42/45 (c) 1/2 (d) 28/45

iv. A manufacturer manufactures copper fragments that are tube-shaped. A sample of fragments
is taken, and the thicknesses are found to be 1.01, 0.97, 1.03, 1.04, 0.99, 0.98, 0.99, 1.01, and
1.03 cms. Discover a 99% confidence interval for the mean thickness of fragments,
considering a roughly normal distribution.

(a) (0.892, 1.233) (b) (0.978, 1.033) (c) (0.782, 0.925) (d) (0.685, 0.805)

v. A soda engine at a cold-drink house is managed so the measure of drink administered is

roughly normally distributed with an average of 200 mm and a S.D. of 15 mm. The engine is
checked occasionally by taking an example of 9 beverages and figuring the average content.
 On the off chance that ̅ falls in the span 191 < ̅ < 209, the machine is thought to be
working acceptably; else, we presume that mm. What is the probability of
committing type-II error when mm?

(a) 0.2564 (b) 0.0652 (c) 0.1151 (d) 0.3216

vi. There are 3 servers in a system which has arrival rate of 9 customers per hour and service
rate of 4 customers per hour. The system follows first-cum-first-serve discipline. It has no
limit for queue. What is the probability of System is having 2 or less than two people? What
is the Waiting time in queue?
(a) 0.4324,0.1422 hrs (b) 0.4652,0.3922 hrs (c) 0.6321,0.1422 hrs (d) 0.3512, 0.2 hrs
vii. Out of Geometric, Gamma and Exponential distribution which do not have reproduction
property?

(a) Geometric only (b) Geometric and Exponential

(c) Gamma and Exponential (d) Exponential only

viii. The expected value of a discrete random variable ‘x’ is given by

a) P(x) b) ∑ P(x) c) ∑ x P(x) d) 1

ix. Three companies A, B and C supply 25%, 35% and 40% of the notebooks to a school. Past
experience shows that 5%, 4% and 2% of the notebooks produced by these companies are
defective. If a notebook was found to be defective, what is the probability that the notebook
was supplied by A?
a) 44⁄69 b) 25⁄69 c) 13⁄24 d) 11⁄24

x. Stochastic processes are

a) Random in nature b) Are function of time

c) Random in nature and are a function of time d) None of the mentioned

SUBJECTIVE

Q.1 There are 2 servers in a system which has arrival rate of 10 customers per hour and service
rate of 6 customers per hour. The system follows first-cum-first-serve discipline. It has limit
of 7 customers in a queue.

a) What is the probability of System is having 2 or less than two people?

b) Find the Length of a queue, Length of a system and Waiting time in a system? [3]
Q.2 Find the stationary distribution of the following probability transition matrix

[ ]. [3]

Q.3 The transition probability matrix of the Markov chain with three states 1, 2, 3 is

[ ]

and the initial probability is (0.7, 0.2, 0.1). Calculate ( ) and

( ). (Hint: fill in the blanks first) [3]
Q.4 The following data represent the running periods of movies manufactured by 2 movie-
production firms:
Firms Period (min)
A 102 86 98 109 92
B 81 165 97 134 92 87 114
Test the hypothesis that the average running periods of movies manufactured by firm B beats the
mean running time of films produced by firm A by 10 min contrary to the one-sided alternative that
the difference is less than 10 min. Use a 0.1 level of significance and considering the distributions of
periods to be approximately normal with unequal variances. [3]

Q.5 Following is the transition probability matrix:

[ ]

Which of the following is the irreducible set? Which of the following are the transient states and
recurrent states? Draw a state-transition diagram? [3]

Q.6 Past experience shows that the time required for subordinate college seniors to finish a
normalized test is an S.N.V. with an average of 36 min. On the off chance that an arbitrary sample of
20 subordinate college seniors took a normal of 33.1 min to finish this test with a S.D. of 4.3 min,
Find P-value and test the hypothesis, at the 0.05 level of significance, that μ = 36 min against the
alternative that μ < 36 min. [3]

Q.7 Explain in detail the M/M/c: FCFS queuing model and derive the formula for length
of the system ( ), length of queue ( ), and . [3]

Q.8 In a component manufacturing industry, there is a small probability of 1/ 500 for any
component to be defective. The components are supplied in packets of 10. Use Poisson distribution
to calculate the approximate number of packets containing (i) at least one defective, and (ii) at most
one defective, in a consignment of 1000 packets. [3]

Q.9 An electrical firm manufactures light bulbs that have life, before burn-out, that is normally
distributed with mean equal to 800 hours and a standard deviation of 40 hours. Find the probability
that a bulb burns

(i) more than 834 hours. (ii) between 778 and 834 hours. [3]

Q.10 A random sample of size 100 is taken from a population whose mean is 60 and variance is
400. Using central limit theorem, with what probability can we assert that the mean of the sample
will not differ from µ = 60 by more than 4? [3]

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