Hourly modeling

corrections for accurate

solar energy
assessment
DNV and Southern Company

25 October 2022
Agenda

• Introduction & motivation

• Research on hourly modeling errors
• DNV hourly modeling correction
(HMC) method and service
• Conclusion
• Q&A

2 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022

Speakers - Will Holmgren

Senior Solar Analyst at DNV

• Leads DNV efforts to refine resource assessment, improve

usage of measurement data, and predict hourly modeling
errors.

• Maintainer of pvlib python, a popular open-source software

library for modeling solar energy systems.

• Previously developed solar and wind power forecasts for

regional utilities and was the PI of a grant from the U.S.
Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office to
improve assessment of solar energy forecasts.

3 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022

Speakers - Will Hobbs

Principal Research Engineer at Southern Company

• Lead solar researcher, including project development,

operations, and fleet integration R&D.

• Exploring sub-hourly clipping loss error since 2014,

collaborating with Allen Analytics, EPRI, DNV, and NREL.

• Actively engaged with PVPMC, pvlib, NREL SAM. DuraMAT

industry advisory board member. Engaged in storage and
wind R&D at Southern.

4 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022

Speakers - Madison Ghiz

Solar Analyst at DNV

• Works on the special projects team to help advance and

improve DNV's energy assessment process

• Specializing in PV+BESS, solar EA validation, and hourly

modeling corrections

• Previously conducted research focused on atmospheric

physics driving Antarctic surface melt

5 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022

Motivation
• Solar projects developed/financed using data
with hourly resolution
• Hourly data leads to positively biased P50s
• Increasingly relevant
• Solar installations in new regions with fewer clear
days, more variability
• Higher DC to AC ratios

• Long-term production assessments have never

been more important
• Inflation Reduction Act will lead to solar PTCs
• De-risk future solar underperformance

6 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022

Hourly modeling error
Inverter clip
1 minute DC
level
• Primarily due to inverter clipping
• Anderson, Hobbs, Holmgren et al IEEE PVSC 2022

• Smaller contributions from transposition and 1 hour DC

temperature models

• Quantification and correction techniques

• Temperature-corrected insolation ratios 1 hour DC →
1 hour AC
• NSRDB PSM 5 minute irradiance
• Machine learning / Statistical techniques 1 minute DC →
1 hour AC

7 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022

 Will Hobbs
Principal Research Engineer
Southern Company

8 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022

 A Real-World Issue
• 2022 work used real plants (low DC:AC ratio) [1]
• 2021 work used real plants (high DC:AC ratio) [2]
• Meeting expectations does not mean this isn’t an issue
• Don’t want your performance “buffer” used up by this

[1] K. Anderson, W. Hobbs, W. Holmgren, K. Perry, M.

Mikofski, and R. Kharait. 2022. The Effect of Inverter Loading
Ratio on Energy Estimate Bias: Preprint. NREL/CP5K00-
82812. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/82812.pdf
[2] A. Parikh, K. Perry, K. Anderson, W. Hobbs, R. Kharait ,
and M. Mikofski. 2021. Validation of Subhourly Clipping Loss
Error Corrections. IEEE PVSC 2021 9
Georgia Power 2023/2024 Utility Scale
Renewable RFP
• In the section where bidders provide hourly energy generation profiles and
supporting information, we asked the following questions:
• Was sub-hourly clipping loss error accounted for?
• If yes, describe your methodology. If no, comment on why this error
was not accounted for.

• Loosely categorizing responses, approximately:

• 25% of bids said "yes"
• 10% said "no, but we could if needed"
• 40% said "no, because resource data and/or modeling tools are limited
to hour intervals"
• 25% gave other reasons for "no"
10
 Possible fixes
• Good, representative minute-scale data would work. Could use nearest
SURFRAD, etc. in a parallel/post analysis
• Takes time and/or money
• Synthetic subhourly satellite data
• Very exciting, 3rd party validation (?)
• Other methods already mentioned
• We’ve been exploring fixes for several years w/ Allen Analytics and EPRI
• 2018 EPRI report recently made freely available [3]. Could use annual
corrections from region+DC:AC lookup
• Better hourly solution published at 2022 PVPMC in Salt Lake [4]

[3] Improved Photovoltaic (PV) Plant Energy Production Prediction (Phase 1): The Effect of Short-Term
Inverter Saturation on PV Performance Modeling. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2018. 3002014718.
https://www.epri.com/research/products/000000003002014718
[4] Allen, Hobbs, Bolen. Classification Method to Predict the Effect of Short-Term Inverter Saturation on
PV Performance Modeling. 2022 15th PV Performance Modeling Workshop, Salt Lake City, Utah. (Poster)
https://pvpmc.sandia.gov/download/8583/ 11
 “Allen” method
• Correction matrix derived from SURFRAD, lookup based on DNI index and
“clipping potential”, CP
• CP is difference in dry clean sky Pdc and AC nameplate, more robust
than static DC:AC ratio (accounts for temp coefficient, solar position,
etc.)
• Correction applied to each hour

[4] Allen, Hobbs, Bolen. Classification Method to Predict the Effect of Short-Term Inverter Saturation on
PV Performance Modeling. 2022 15th PV Performance Modeling Workshop, Salt Lake City, Utah. (Poster)
https://pvpmc.sandia.gov/download/8583/ 12
“Allen” method
• Plan to work with EPRI and Allen Analytics:
• Publish open-source python package, mid 2023 est.
• Ability to apply correction matrix (as described in poster) and create
new correction matrices with new data
• Plan to work with NREL, Allen Analytics, EPRI:
• Intend to add correction method to future NREL SAM release
• Include “default” matrix, ability to import a custom matrix

13
Conclusion
• Excited about lots of solutions being available!
• Look forward to seeing them compared

14
 Madison Ghiz
Solar Analyst
DNV

15 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022

DNV’s hourly modeling correction (HMC)

• DNV has implemented a machine learning (ML)

model to correct for overpredicted energy yield
due to underestimation of inverter clipping
losses in projects without intra-hourly irradiance
data
• ML model adapted from NREL
• Times considered are filtered for GHI and POA >
200 W/m2

16 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022

DNV's HMC model: ML model

17 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022

DNV's HMC model: post-processing

18 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022

Spatial correction factor
• Everything prior to this step has been
represented as point data whereas
this is not representative of a PV plant 3 MW DC

• DNV analyzed SURFRAD surface

irradiance measurements using pvlib
python with the wavelet variability
model (WVM)
• WVM corrects point measurements to
150 MW DC
simulate irradiance over a larger area,
resulting in smoothing impacts of high
frequency irradiance measurements on 300 MW DC
larger arrays

19 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022

Temporal correction factor

• Satellite data providers compute hourly

averages from instantaneous images
• TMY3 used images obtained 2x / hour

• DNV looked at the effect of sampling rate on

modeling errors by simulating satellite data
from high frequency irradiance data from
ground sites across the U.S.
• 44 years of data from 7 SURFRAD sites

• Observed increasing HMC for sampling rates

of 30-min or shorter

averaging interval

20 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022

HMC results before and after spatial and temporal corrections applied

21 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022

DNV’s solar energy assessment validation (2021)
• Validated inclusion of terrain, wind stow loss, and hourly modeling correction in energy assessments
• HMC ML output compared directly with actual calculated modeling error from sub-hourly onsite data as well as
SolarFarmer output
• P50 bias reduced when HMC is included

DNV Solar Energy Assessment Validation available online

22 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022

 Will Holmgren
Senior Solar Analyst
DNV

23 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022

Solar Resource Compass + HMC
• DNV’s Solar Resource Compass provides online tools for:
• Energy simulation
• Irradiance data comparison and evaluation
• Dust and snow soiling profiles
Irradiance data
• Albedo profiles can vary by 10%

• Generate PDF summaries for sharing with developer and investor partners

• Free to try: first month is free for new users - https://src.dnv.com/

• Also accessible via API: https://api.src.dnv.com/ Dust and snow
soiling losses

• Coming soon: Hourly modeling correction calculation

Shares the same analytical tools DNV analysts use –

Intended for feasibility analysis (bankable when Albedo profiles
confirmed by DNV) Fast energy simulation
with easy setup

24 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022

Conclusions

• Hourly resolution data leads to bias in P50 energy

• Handful of modeling correction techniques now available
• Need for model comparison against real-world performance in variety of climates
• DNV hourly modeling correction based on NREL ML model, but includes spatial and
temporal averaging factors
• DNV’s 2021 solar energy assessment validation study shows that HMC reduces P50 bias
• HMC available soon through DNV’s Solar Resource Compass

25 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022

Thank you! Any questions?

William.Holmgren@dnv.com

www.dnv.com

26 DNV © 25 OCTOBER 2022