10/12/2022, 15:27 DP Psychology: Thinking and decision making

Thinking and decision making

We are constantly bombarded by information. As we have already learned, to cope with so much information, we often
choose not to process it by not paying attention to it. However, when we pay attention to the stimuli around us, we engage
in a process known as thinking. Thinking is the process of using knowledge and information to make plans, interpret the
world, and make predictions about the world in general.

There are several components of thinking - these include problem-solving, creativity, reasoning, and decision making. For
this chapter, we will focus on decision making which is defined as the process of identifying and choosing alternatives
based on the values and preferences of the decision-maker. Decision-making is needed during problem-solving to reach
the conclusion. Problem-solving is thinking that is directed toward solving specific problems by means of a set of mental
strategies. The concepts of problem-solving, decision-making and thinking are very much interconnected.  For the IB when
discussing either decision making or problem-solving, you are also addressing the goals of understanding "thinking and
decision making."

The Dual Process Model of Thinking and Decision Making

The face here on your left demonstrates a clear emotion.  Which one is it? When you look at
the photo, you do not have to do a lot of thinking about how this person feels - she is clearly
disgusted.

However, what if I were to ask you the following question:

A mountain goat attempts to scale a cliff sixty feet high. Every minute, the goat bounds upward
three feet but slips back two. How long does it take for the goat to reach the top?

This question is not as easy as the first.  If you have done problems just like this before, you
may have a quick answer, but for most people, it will take a little bit of time to work out the
answer - which is fifty-eight minutes. Although his net progress each minute is one foot, he
reaches the top on the fifty-eighth minute just before he would normally slip back two feet.

The two questions above show that different kinds of problems require different ways of thinking. The Dual Process
Model of thinking and decision making postulates that there are two basic modes of thinking - what Stanovich and West
(2000) refer to as "System 1" and "System 2."

System 1 is an automatic, intuitive, and effortless way of thinking. System 1 thinking often employs heuristics - that is, a
‘rule’ used to make decisions or form judgments. Heuristics are mental short-cuts that involve focusing on one aspect of a
complex problem and ignoring others (Lewis, 2008). This ‘fast’ mode of thinking allows for efficient processing of the often
complex world around us but may be prone to errors when our assumptions do not match the reality of a specific situation.
These errors may have greater consequences in our day-to-day lives because system 1 thinking is expected to create a
greater feeling of certitude – certainty that our initial response is correct.

Gilbert and Gill (2000) have argued that we become more likely to use System 1 thinking when our cognitive load is high -
that is, when we have lots of different things to think about at the same time, or we have to process information and make
a decision quickly.

System 2 is a slower, conscious, and rational mode of thinking.  This mode of thinking is assumed to require more effort.
System 2  starts by thinking carefully about all of the possible ways we could interpret a situation and gradually eliminates
possibilities based on sensory evidence until we arrive at a solution. Rational thinking allows us to analyze the world
around us and think carefully about what is happening, why it is happening, what is most likely to happen next, and how
we might influence the situation. This mode of thinking is less likely to create feelings of certitude and confidence.

Characteristics of System 1 and System 2 thinking

System 1 System 2

Context-dependent - focuses on existing evidence and ignores

Abstract
absent evidence

Concerns everyday decision making Conscious reasoning

Generates impressions and inclinations. Logical and reliable

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10/12/2022, 15:27 DP Psychology: Thinking and decision making

Not logic-based and prone to error Slow and requiring effort

Transfers information from one situation to a

Operates automatically and quickly with little or no effort
new situation.

It is important to remember that we often use both of these systems when addressing a problem.  System 1 will reach a
quick conclusion and then System 2 will go into further analysis to hopefully reach a "more correct" conclusion. Because
System 1 is activated before System 2 can do its work, often System 1 interferes with the effectiveness of System 2.

Research in psychology: Wason 1968

One example of research that
supports the dual-process model
is based on the Wason selection
task.

The image to the left is an

example of the task.  Participants
would be shown this set of cards
and asked the following question:
Which card(s) must be turned over
to test the idea that if a card shows
an even number on one face, then
its opposite face is red?

If you are like most people you will choose the cards with the number "8" and the "red" card. But this is incorrect.  We
make this decision based on what Wason called matching bias - that is, in an abstract problem, we tend to be overly
influenced by the wording (or context) of the question.  In this case, the words "even number" and "red."

First, if you guessed "8" and "red", here is an explanation of why that answer is not correct.

If the 3 card is red, that doesn't violate the rule. The rule makes no claims about odd numbers.
If the 8 card is not red, it violates the rule. So, this card is the correct choice.
If the red card is odd, that doesn't violate the rule. The rule is not "if the card is red on one face, then its
opposite side is an even number."
If the brown card is even, it violates the rule.

Evans and Wason (1976) found that when asked why they chose the cards that they did, they were not able to clearly
explain their choices.

The Wason selection task provides important evidence for the dual-process model. Most people make the decision of
which cards to choose without any reasoning - but as an automatic response to the context of the question.  Wason
(1968) found that even when he trained people how to answer this question, when he changed the context, the same
mistakes were made.  For example, can you solve this one?

Which cards would you have to turn over in order to prove if the following statement is true?  If there is a male's name
on one side of the card, then there is an IB subject on the other side of the card.

Many people would choose John and Chemistry.  But you would need to turn over John and Football.

If you got this wrong, this shows how powerful System 1 can be.  It can interfere with System 2, even when you have
learned the "right way to do things."

Griggs and Cox (1982) found that when the task is not abstract, we do not tend to show the matching bias. Try to
solve this final logic puzzle.

Which cards would you have to turn over in order to prove if the following statement is true?  If a person is drinking
beer, then that person must be over 18 years old.

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If you chose "drinking beer" and "16 years of age," then you are correct.  Researchers have found that when the task
is not abstract, 75% of people are able to correctly answer the question. When the task is not abstract, System 1
works just fine in solving the problem.

Biological evidence supports what we see in the Wason Selection Task by showing that different types of processing may
be located in different parts of the brain.  Goel et al (2000) had participants carry out a logic task similar to the ones
above.  In some cases, the task was abstract in nature (for example, an odd number and a matching colour).  In contrast,
some of the tasks were "concrete" in nature (for example, drinking beer and under 18). The researchers had the
participants decide on the correct choices while in an fMRI. Although there were many common areas of the brain that
were active in solving the problems, there was a clear difference.  When the task was abstract, the parietal lobe was
active; when the task was concrete, the left hemisphere temporal lobe was active. The parietal lobe is often associated
with spatial processing. This seems to indicate that the brain processes these two types of information differently - and
thus may be seen as support for the model.

ATL: Inquiry
One of the ways that researchers study how people make
decisions is to have them think aloud.  This is a special type
of interview often called a verbal protocol. Theoretically,
this is an important way for researchers to "see" what
people are thinking.

But how easy do you think that it is for people to explain

what they are thinking?

To find out, carry out the following verbal protocol on a

friend or family member.

Give the participant a piece of paper with the following problem written on it in the following format. 

In addition, give them the following instructions. Please find the numerical value of each letter in
this problem.  Each letter is assigned a value from zero to nine.  None of the numbers 0 - 9 may
be used for more than one letter.  To get you started, D = 5.

Please solve the problem "out loud."  Explain your strategy to me so that I can understand how
you are solving this puzzle.

After having completed the puzzle, consider the following questions.

1.  How easy was it for your participant to think aloud while solving the problem?  Why do you think that this is true?

2.  Do you think that training people to "think aloud" would be helpful to researchers?  Why or why not?

Reliability of System 1 thinking

System 1 thinking is most often associated with errors – we make intuitive assumptions about the world which will
sometimes be mistaken. However, it has also been argued that System 1 can be very effective for experts. This process is
sometimes called thin slicing and suggests that experts are sometimes able to know the correct answer to complex
questions immediately, often without knowing why!

Thin slicing is defined as making very quick inferences about the state, characteristics, or details of an individual or
situation with minimal amounts of information. One example is the famous tennis coach Vic Braden who was able to
predict when a tennis player was about to double fault with almost 100% accuracy. Interestingly, Vic was unable to say
how he knew even after viewing hundreds of hours of video footage!

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The following study was carried out to test whether psychologists could accurately predict if a couple in marriage
counseling would end up divorced, after only a few minutes of conversation. The Specific Affect (SPAFF) coding system
has been developed and used by John Gottman and his team to thin slice the way married couples communicate. This
system has allowed Gottman to predict how likely it is that couples will still be together in six years' time based on only
three minutes of the first marriage counseling conversation. This then makes it possible to design effective marriage
counseling for these couples.

Research in psychology: Carerre & Gottman (1999)

Carerre & Gottman, (1999) wanted to test the usefulness of the SPAFF system to predict
long-term relationship success based on thin-slicing of interaction between couples.

In this prospective study, 124 newlywed couples were recruited using a purposive sampling
method. Sampling included an attempt to stratify the sample; couples reflected a range of
economic and ethnic demographics in the Seattle area. Each couple completed a survey,
(each husband and wife completed the survey separately) and then discussed the results with
a researcher in order to identify one or two problematic issues in their relationship.

These issues were then used as the basis for a 15-minute discussion which was video
recorded and then coded using SPAFF. Couples were then checked once a year for six years
to find out if they were still married.

SPAFF scores from the originally recorded discussion were compared for husbands and wives who were still married
after six years and those who were not. The results below are based entirely on the first 3 minutes of the 15-minute
discussion.

Negative emotions Positive emotions Total

Married husbands -33.5 85.7 52.2

Divorced husbands -59.7 45.9 -13.8

Married wives -39.1 85.0 45.9

Divorced wives -66.9 46 -20.9

The data clearly shows that observers using SPAFF had rated the communication between couples doomed to
divorce as containing far more indications of negative emotions and far fewer signs of positive emotion. This was true
for both husbands and wives although the data suggests the system is more successful when applied to husbands. All
of the husbands in the study became increasingly more negative during the conversation, but husbands that would
eventually get divorced became negative more quickly than husbands that were still married five years later.

Strengths and limitations of the Dual Process Model

Strengths

There is biological evidence that different types of thinking may be processed in different parts of the brain.

The Wason selection task and other tests for cognitive biases (see the next part of this chapter) are reliable in their
results.

Limitations

The model can seem to be overly reductionist as it does not clearly explain how (or even if) these modes of thinking
interact or how our thinking and decision-making could be influenced by emotion.

The definitions of System 1 and System 2 are not always clear.  For example, fast processing indicates the use of
System 1 rather than System 2 processes. However, just because processing is fast does not mean it is done by
System 1. Experience can influence System 2 processing to go faster.

Checking for understanding

1

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10/12/2022, 15:27 DP Psychology: Thinking and decision making

Which of the following statements is true about thinking, decision making and problem solving?

A. Decision making is a part of problem solving - and both decision making and problem solving are examples of
thinking.

B. Decision making is an aspect of thinking - but not part of problem solving.

C. Problem solving is a part of decision making - but only decision making is a true example of thinking.

D. Thinking, decision making and problem solving are three distinct cognitive processes with no overlap in what
they do.

Mary believes that she is an excellent math student.  In fact, her favourite unit is statistics.  However, when she is asked to
critically evaluate the data of an experiment in psychology class, she does not know how to do it.  How does the Dual
Process model explain this?

A. She has developed the System 2 thinking necessary for math class, but not for psychology class.

B. Her knowledge from mathematics is interfering with her knowledge in psychology.

C. She is not able to transfer her understanding in mathematics to a new context (situation).  So, her approach to
solving the problem shows System 1 thinking.

D. Mary's self-esteem in psychology class is interfering with her ability to solve the problem.  It has nothing to do
with System 1 and System 2 thinking.

If I meet two students from your school and they are brilliant psychology students, I may then conclude that your school
must have an amazing psychology program.  This conclusion follows a simple “rule of thumb” or a mental short-cut called
a

A. stereotype

B. participant bias

C. matching bias

D. heuristic

When are we more likely to use System 1 thinking?

A. When we have not practiced something a lot.

B. When we have too much information to process.

C. When the problem is highly abstract.

D. When we need to transfer information from one situation to another.

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Which of the following is not a characteristic of System 1 thinking?

A. It is dependent on context - that is, environmental cues - to solve the problem.

B. Is able to transfer information from one situation to another.

C. Requires little effort.

D. Results in creating impressions.

Which of the following statements is true about the Wason selection task?

A. When people are trained in how to do the task, they no longer make errors.

B. People tend to be able to explain their decisions to the researcher.

C. People get better at the task the older they get.

D. People make fewer errors when the task is put into a context which they understand, rather than an abstract
task.

Which of the following is not a characteristic of System 2 thinking?

A. It is the basis for most of our day to day decision making.

B. Is able to transfer information from one situation to another.

C. It is slow and requires conscious effort.

D. Is logical and less prone to error.

According to Goel et al (2000), which part of the brain may be responsible for processing abstract problems?

A. The temporal lobe

B. The frontal lobe

C. The parietal lobe.

D. The hypothalamus

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Which of the following is not a limitation of the Dual Process Model?

A. It does not explain the interaction of the two systems.

B. There is no biological support for a two systems approach.

C. It is reductionist - it does not explain the role of emotion in decision making.

D. The descriptors of the different systems are not well operationalized - for example, not all fast processing is
System 1.

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