𝐴_𝑡 𝐹_𝑡

m=4 𝐷_𝑡
𝐴_𝑡=(𝐷_𝑡+𝐷_(𝑡−1)+…+ 𝐹_(𝑡+1)=𝐴_𝑡 𝐷_𝑡−𝐹_𝑡
𝐷_(𝑡−𝑚+1))/𝑚

Periodo Demanda Promedio movil Pronostico

1 56
2 50
3 47 51.00
4 51 49.33 51.00
5 58 52.00 49.33
6 62 57.00 52.00
7 55 58.33 57.00
8 48 55.00 58.33
9 39 47.33 55.00
10 44 43.67 47.33
11 49 44.00 43.67
12 55 49.33 44.00
13 61 55.00 49.33
14 70 62.00 55.00
15 58 63.00 62.00
16 63.00

𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑜
𝐵𝐼𝐴𝑆=(∑_(𝑡=1)^𝑁▒𝑒_𝑡 )/𝑁

𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑀𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎 𝐴𝑏𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑎

(𝑀𝐴𝐷)=(∑_(𝑡=1)^𝑁▒ 〖〖 |𝑒 〗 _𝑡 | 〗 )/𝑁

𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑢𝑎𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑜 𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑜 (𝑀𝑆𝐸)=(∑_(𝑡=1)^𝑁▒

〖〖 (𝑒 〗 _𝑡) 〗 ^2 )/𝑁
𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑜 𝑎𝑏𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑜 (𝑀𝐴𝑃𝐸)=(∑_(𝑡=1)^𝑁▒ 〖 |
𝑒_𝑡/𝐷_𝑡 ∗100| 〗 )/𝑁

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑜 𝑐𝑜𝑛 𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐

𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑=(𝑁𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑙+
𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑
 𝑒_𝑡 〖| |𝑒_𝑡/𝐷_𝑡
=𝐴_𝑡 𝑒
𝐷_𝑡−𝐹_𝑡 〖 | 〗 _ 〖 (𝑒_ ∗100| Pronóstico de demanda
𝑡| 〖 (𝐷_𝑡−
𝑡) 〗 ^ 80
𝐷 〗 _𝑡−𝐹_ 𝐹_𝑡) 2 〗^
𝑡 |Errores de pronostico
2 70
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE
60

50

Unidades
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0% 40
8.67 8.67 75.11 14.9%
30
10.00 10.00 100.00 16.1%
-2.00 2.00 4.00 3.6% 20
-10.33 10.33 106.78 21.5%
-16.00 16.00 256.00 41.0% 10
-3.33 3.33 11.11 7.6% 0
5.33 5.33 28.44 10.9% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
11.00 11.00 121.00 20.0% Periodos
11.67 11.67 136.11 19.1%
15.00 15.00 225.00 21.4%
-4.00 4.00 16.00 6.9%
26.00 97.3333333 1079.56 183% Suma de errores

2.17 8.11 89.96 15.26%

𝑁=12
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE

∑_(𝑡=1)^𝑁▒ 〖 |

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑜 𝑐𝑜𝑛 𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎 𝑦

𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑=(𝑁𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑙+𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎)∗𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑐𝑖
𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑
 de demanda

Demanda
Pronostico

10 11 12 13 14 15

s
m= 3
W1 0.5 𝐴_𝑡 𝐹_𝑡
W2 0.3
𝐷_𝑡
𝐴_𝑡= 𝑊_1 𝐷_𝑡+𝑊_2 𝐷_(𝑡−1)+…+ 𝑊_𝑛
W3 0.2 𝐷_(𝑡−𝑚+1)
∑_(𝑡=1)^𝑚▒ 〖𝑊 _𝑖=1 〗
𝐹_(𝑡+1)=𝐴_𝑡 𝐷_𝑡−𝐹_𝑡

Sum 1
Periodo Demanda Promedio movil ponderado Pronostico
1 56
2 50
3 47 52.40
4 51 49.30 52.40
5 58 50.40 49.30
6 62 55.30 50.40
7 55 58.60 55.30
8 48 57.10 58.60
9 39 49.70 57.10
10 44 44.50 49.70
11 49 42.50 44.50
12 55 47.70 42.50
13 61 53.20 47.70
14 70 59.80 53.20
15 58 63.10 59.80
16 63.10

𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑜
𝐵𝐼𝐴𝑆=(∑_(𝑡=1)^𝑁▒𝑒_𝑡 )/𝑁

𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑀𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎 𝐴𝑏𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑎

(𝑀𝐴𝐷)=(∑_(𝑡=1)^𝑁▒ 〖〖 |𝑒 〗 _𝑡 | 〗 )/𝑁

𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑢𝑎𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑜 𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑜 (𝑀𝑆𝐸)=(∑_(𝑡=1)^𝑁▒

〖〖 (𝑒 〗 _𝑡) 〗 ^2 )/𝑁
𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑜 𝑎𝑏𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑜 (𝑀𝐴𝑃𝐸)=(∑_(𝑡=1)^𝑁▒ 〖 |
𝑒_𝑡/𝐷_𝑡 ∗100| 〗 )/𝑁
 𝑒_𝑡 〖| |𝑒_𝑡/𝐷_𝑡 Pronóstico de demanda
=𝐴_𝑡 𝐷_𝑡−𝐹_𝑡 〖 𝑒| 〗 _ 〖 (𝐷_𝑡− ∗100|
〖 (𝑒_ 80
𝑡| 𝑡) 〗 ^
𝐷 〗 _𝑡−𝐹_ 𝐹_𝑡) 2 〗^ 70

𝑡 |Errores de pronostico
2 60
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE
50

Unidades
40 Dem
Pron
-1.40 1.40 1.96 2.7%
30
8.70 8.70 75.69 15.0%
11.60 11.60 134.56 18.7% 20
-0.30 0.30 0.09 0.5%
10
-10.60 10.60 112.36 22.1%
-18.10 18.10 327.61 46.4% 0
-5.70 5.70 32.49 13.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

4.50 4.50 20.25 9.2% Periodos

12.50 12.50 156.25 22.7%
13.30 13.30 176.89 21.8%
16.80 16.80 282.24 24.0%
-1.80 1.80 3.24 3.1%
29.50 105.3 1323.63 199% Suma de errores

2.46 8.78 110.30 16.61%

𝑁=12
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE

∑_(𝑡=1)^𝑁▒ 〖 |
demanda

Demanda
Pronostico

1 12 13 14 15 16
 𝐴_𝑡= α𝐷_𝑡+(1−"α)" 〖𝐴′〗 _𝑡= 〖𝐴′′〗 _𝑡= α 〖𝐹
α="=
𝐹_1 2/n+1 𝐹_𝑡
" ∑_(𝑡=2)^𝑛▒( F_(t+1)/𝑛) 〖𝐹′〗 _1 "= " ∑_(𝑡=2)^𝑛▒(
α𝐹_(𝑡+1)+(1−"α)" 〖𝐹′′〗
〖 F′ 〗 _(t+1)/𝑛) _1 "= " ∑_(𝑡=2)^𝑛▒( 〖 F′′ 〗〖𝐹
′〗 _(𝑡+1)+(1−"α)" _(t+1)/𝑛)
′
n 15 𝐹_2=𝐷_1
〖𝐹′〗 _𝑡 〖𝐹 ′〗 _𝑡 〖𝐹 ′
α 0.4 ′〗 _2=𝐷_ ′〗 _2=𝐷_
SEPO Errores de pronostico SED 1 Errores de pronostico SET 1 Errores de pronostico
t Dt At Ft BIAS MAD MSE MAPE A't F´t BIAS MAD MSE MAPE A''t F''t BIAS MAD MSE MAPE
1 56 54.30 53.17 2.8 2.8 8.0 0.1 54.24 53.07 2.9 2.9 8.6 0.1 54.35 53.26 2.7 2.7 7.5 0.0
2 50 53.60 56.00 -6.0 6.0 36.0 0.1 55.04 56.00 -6.0 6.0 36.0 0.1 55.62 56.00 -6.0 6.0 36.0 0.1
3 47 50.96 53.60 -6.6 6.6 43.6 0.1 53.41 55.04 -8.0 8.0 64.6 0.2 54.73 55.62 -8.6 8.6 74.2 0.2
4 51 50.98 50.96 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 52.44 53.41 -2.4 2.4 5.8 0.0 53.81 54.73 -3.7 3.7 13.9 0.1
5 58 53.79 50.98 7.0 7.0 49.3 0.1 52.98 52.44 5.6 5.6 31.0 0.1 53.48 53.81 4.2 4.2 17.5 0.1
6 62 57.07 53.79 8.2 8.2 67.5 0.1 54.61 52.98 9.0 9.0 81.4 0.1 53.93 53.48 8.5 8.5 72.6 0.1
7 55 56.24 57.07 -2.1 2.1 4.3 0.0 55.27 54.61 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 54.47 53.93 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0
8 48 52.95 56.24 -8.2 8.2 67.9 0.2 54.34 55.27 -7.3 7.3 52.8 0.2 54.41 54.47 -6.5 6.5 41.8 0.1
9 39 47.37 52.95 -13.9 13.9 194.5 0.4 51.55 54.34 -15.3 15.3 235.2 0.4 53.27 54.41 -15.4 15.4 237.6 0.4
10 44 46.02 47.37 -3.4 3.4 11.3 0.1 49.34 51.55 -7.5 7.5 57.0 0.2 51.70 53.27 -9.3 9.3 85.9 0.2
11 49 47.21 46.02 3.0 3.0 8.9 0.1 48.49 49.34 -0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 50.41 51.70 -2.7 2.7 7.3 0.1
12 55 50.33 47.21 7.8 7.8 60.6 0.1 49.22 48.49 6.5 6.5 42.4 0.1 49.94 50.41 4.6 4.6 21.0 0.1
13 61 54.60 50.33 10.7 10.7 113.9 0.2 51.37 49.22 11.8 11.8 138.7 0.2 50.51 49.94 11.1 11.1 122.4 0.2
14 70 60.76 54.60 15.4 15.4 237.3 0.2 55.13 51.37 18.6 18.6 347.0 0.3 52.36 50.51 19.5 19.5 379.8 0.3
15 58 59.65 60.76 -2.8 2.8 7.6 0.0 56.94 55.13 2.9 2.9 8.3 0.0 54.19 52.36 5.6 5.6 31.8 0.1
16 59.65 58.02 56.94 55.29 54.19
12.0 97.9 910.8 1.9 10.8 104.6 1109.0 2.0 5.1 109.5 1150.6 2.1
0.8 6.5 60.7 12.4% 0.7 7.0 73.9 13.3% 0.3 7.3 76.7 13.9%

Demanda vs SEPO Demanda vs SED Demanda vs SET

80 80 80
70 70
60 60
50 50
40 40
30 30 30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Dt Ft Dt F´t Dt F''t
 Demanda vs Suavizaciones
75

70 70

65
62
61
60
58 58
56
55 55 55
Demanda

51
50 50
49
48
47
45
44

40
39

35

30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Periodo t

Dt Ft F´t F''t

Pronostico Promedio
Promedio
m. SEPO SED SET
Error m. Simple
ponderado
BIAS 2.1667 2.042 -0.235 -1.353 -1.998
MAD 8.1111 7.892 6.591 6.604 6.428
MSE 89.9630 83.276 64.788 66.314 64.733
MAPE 15.26% 14.82% 12.72% 13.00% 12.82%