What could make it worse this year?

Preserving the Amazon rainforest is of global

importance in the fight against climate change, but it is under threat from forest fires, mostly started
to clear land for agriculture.
Early numbers from this year's fire season show an increase, leading to concern from scientists.
President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil recently said that claims the Amazon "is going up in flames"
were not true, despite statistics published by his own government showing the spread of fires.
So what does the data show about what's happening this year?
Is the forest in Brazil burning?
Brazil is a huge country with many different environments, including grassland, wetland and
rainforest.
Some 60% of the Amazon rainforest is in Brazil, and it plays a vital role in absorbing harmful CO2
that would otherwise escape into the atmosphere. So there's particular concern about the damage
that fires might do here.
The total number of fires in Brazil's Amazon until July this year is high - but slightly lower than the same
period last year.

But there is concern about a surge in blazes last month, earlier than would normally be expected.
"If we consider the average number of fires in July over the period from 2010-2019, then the
number of fires in July 2020 represented an increase of 55.6% of the average," says Prof Marcia
Castro, a Brazilian scientist based at Harvard University.
"An increase also happened in June (19.6% compared to June last year, and 36.1% compared to
the average for the month of June between 2010-19). The peak of the fire season is often seen in
August to September.
"So the consistent increase in June and July is worrisome," says Prof Castro.
And alerts so far in August look set to rival the number recorded last year. Fires this year are at
the second highest level since 2010.
In the first seven months of 2020, more than 13,000sq km (5,019sq miles) of the Brazilian Amazon
was burned, according to analysis of satellite data provided by Dr Michelle Kalamandeen, a
tropical ecologist on the Amazon rainforest.
That's more than eight times the size of London.
Dr Kalamandeen says the torched forest often struggles to grow back.
"When a forest is lost, it is gone forever. Recovery may occur but never 100% recovery," she says.
When you look at the spread of the fires in Brazil, during the week of 11 August, there were
noticeable clusters of fires in the Amazon, with Para, Mato Grosso, Amazonia and Rondonia
states reporting a high number of alerts.
In areas around Novo Progresso in Para state, farmers reportedly held a "day of fire" last year and
satellites have picked up more than 1,300 fire alerts in the past month, according to official
statistics.
To the north-east, the large municipality of Altamira has recorded the most fires in Brazil's Amazon
region during this period.
What could make it worse this year?
Brazilian climate scientist Carlos Nobre says there are two main issues contributing to forest fires
this year.
The first is that this year's dry season is much drier than usual.
"The waters of the tropical north Atlantic are warmer this year and when that happens, we have
less rainfall over the southern Amazon," says Professor Nobre.
The second is that there is a lot of felled forest left over from last year's logging - this is chopped
wood that can fuel fires.
A lot of it didn't get burned as there was a military campaign to stop illegal activity in the forest
This year, the army has been conducting an operation to stop deforestation since June, and in
July, President Bolsonaro imposed a four-month ban on forest fires.
Vice-President Hamilton Mourao recently launched a campaign against the fires, including an app
for the public to report them.
"We will be out in the field in August to try to stop these fires becoming worse than last year," he
told the BBC.
Activists and government critics remain sceptical, says Camilla Costa, a BBC World Service
journalist.
According to the Brazilian defence ministry, 28,100 cubic metres of illegal wood has been
confiscated with fines totalling 407.2 million Brazilian reais ($72.6m; £55m).
However, fires have continued in the region and critics complain about a lack of sufficient
enforcement.

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