Professional Documents
Culture Documents
ECON in focus
held by credit institutions with the Eurosystem had been remunerated at the ECB’s MRO rate. The change
will become effective at the beginning of the reserve maintenance period starting on 21 December 2022.
Table 1: Key ECB interest rates
Based on the information provided in Table 1 and the announcement by the Governing Council that further
increases are expected, we can assume that, from 21 December, the remuneration of minimum reserves will
be above 1.5%, thus significantly higher from 0.5%, where it stood until the middle of September. At the
same time, the decision to set the remuneration at the depnosit facility rate, instead of the MRO rate as it is
now, provides a lower level of compensation. The MRO rate is already 75 bps above the deposit facility rate,
and that interest rate differential is expected to last in the future, so the decision to adapt the level of
remuneration from the MRO rate to the deposit facility rate provides a lower burden for the ECB.
2 PE 733.753
Monetary Dialogue - November 2022
Table 2: Estimated monthly redemptions for the next 12 months (EUR million)
Finally, during the 28 November MD President Lagarde stated, “In December, we will also lay out the key
principles for reducing the bond holdings in our asset purchase programme portfolio. It is appropriate that
the balance sheet is normalised over time in a measured and predictable way.” Therefore, interest rate
increases are expected to be accompanied next year by quantitative tightening in order to facilitate the
achievement of the ECB’s price stability mandate.
PE 733.753 3
IPOL | Economic Governance Support Unit
Finally, in Table 3, the outstanding amount of each operation is presented for September-October and
November. The last column shows data related to the early voluntary repayments of 23 November.
Table 3: Overview of TLTRO III operations and outstanding amounts
Allotted Amount
TLTRO III Maturity Date Outstanding Amount (EUR bn) Repayment
(EUR bn)
1 28/09/2022 3.40 0 0 0
On 27 October, the Governing Council took decisive steps regarding TLTROs and the normalisation of
monetary policy. The initial conditions were amended on 27 October to address unexpected and
extraordinary inflation increases by reinforcing the transmission of policy rates to bank lending conditions.
Therefore, the Governing Council decided that “[f}rom 23 November 2022 until the maturity date or early
repayment date of each respective outstanding TLTRO III operation, the interest rate on TLTRO III operations
will be indexed to the average applicable key ECB interest rates over this period.”
The ECB pointed out that “linking the TLTROs III interest rate to the average deposit facility rate or the
average MRO rate for the remaining maturity of the respective TLTRO III is suitable to induce an acceleration
in the normalisation of financing conditions and reduce the Eurosystem balance sheet and to achieve the
objective of maintaining price stability”. This measure is expected “to increase banks’ funding costs,
therefore contributing to timely restoring price stability in the current inflationary environment”.
Furthermore, the Governing Council decided to introduce three additional voluntary early repayment
periods to provide TLTRO III participants with additional opportunities to partly or fully repay their respective
TLTRO III borrowings before maturity. Absent that decision, the next voluntary early repayment date was
scheduled for 21 December, which refers to the maturity date of TLTRO III.2 operation.
The three additional voluntary early repayment dates are presented in the updated version of the indicative
calendar. The first additional early repayment date was on 23 November 2022, referring to operations 2-10,
coinciding with the start of the new interest rate calculation method. The second early repayment will be
4 PE 733.753
Monetary Dialogue - November 2022
on 25 January 2023, and the third is scheduled for 22 February 2023. Both early repayments of 2023 refer to
TLTROs III. 3-10.
As of today, three early voluntary repayments have taken place. The first repayment date when all rates were
applied and included all operations was 29 June 2022. On 29 June 2022, a total amount of EUR 74.04 billion
was repaid early. The second date for early repayment was 28 September, the same date as the maturity of
TLTRO III.1. During that time, we saw a significant drop compared to the first early repayment, with EUR 6.49
billion being repaid.
The third date was 23 November 2022, and more than 10% of the outstanding amount of TLTROs III was
repaid early on that date. In total, more than EUR 296.29 billion were repaid early, referring to operations 2-
10. More than 70% of the voluntary repayments, EUR 212.41 billion, corresponded to TLTRO III.4. It is worth
mentioning that although the November early repayment accounted for 14% of the outstanding amount of
TLTROs, the final outcome was less overwhelming compared to some market estimations 3, and the main
reason behind that is that still the conditions remain favourable for the banks, despite the new interest rate
calculation method 4.
30000
20000
10000
-10000
-20000
-30000
-40000
In the UK, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 11.1% in October 2022, up from 10.1% in September. The
Bank of England (BoE) decided on 2 November an additional increase of 75 bps, getting the current bank
rate at 3% and aiming to normalise monetary policy further. Since February, the BoE has decided to reduce
its stock of government bonds. Nevertheless, on 28 October, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee decided
PE 733.753 5
IPOL | Economic Governance Support Unit
to introduce temporary purchases of long-dated government bonds to restore market functioning and
reduce any risks from contagion to credit conditions for UK households and businesses. The temporary gilt
market operations were introduced because of a fiscal policy shock and lack of coordination. On 10 October,
it was also expanded to index-linked government bonds, with daily operations equal to GBP 10 billion. The
temporary program ended on 14 October, and a temporary collateral repo facility was introduced from 10
October until 10 November.
Although the inflation rate in the euro area and the UK stands at double digits, the most recent inflation
data for the US, using the Fed’s preferred measure (Personal Consumption Expenditure [PCE] index), points
to a further deceleration of inflation. In October 2022, the headline PCE inflation rate was 6%, at the lowest
level so far in 2022 and following 6.3% in September. . Core PCE (excluding food and energy) remains high,
at 5% in October. Against this background, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) decided unanimously on 2 November to increase the target range by 75 bps for the federal funds
rate to 3.75-4% to tighten monetary policy further.
In addition, quantitative tightening remains an important tool for US policymakers. Overall, the amount of
USD 95 billion per month balance sheet reduction is operated, referring to Treasury securities up to USD 60
billion, and mortgage-backed securities up to USD 35 billion. As of 20 September, the total assets in the Fed
balance sheet were equal to USD 8.8 trillion, while on 15 November, the total assets stood at USD 8.6 trillion,
showing a decrease of around USD 200 billion.
The prospect of global recession because of the synchronised tightening remains high. In Chart 2, we
present the recession probability in the euro area, the UK, and the US as provided in the 16 November
Financial Stability Review. In the euro area and the UK the probability of a recession in 2023 stands at 80%,
while for the US is significantly lower, but still very high at 60%. In part a of Chart 2, it is also visible that since
February, financial conditions have tightened extensively in the euro area, while in the case of the US, the
fluctuations seem milder and closer to zero.
Chart 2: Financial conditions (a) and probability of recession (b)
6 PE 733.753
Monetary Dialogue - November 2022
Source: Annex “Introductory statement in three charts”, provided by the ECB President to the members of the ECON Committee and
available online.
Inflationary pressures in the euro area were mainly driven by supply-side shocks, but tight conditions in the
labour market and other demand factors currently affect inflation. In Chart 3, President Lagarde presented
PE 733.753 7
IPOL | Economic Governance Support Unit
the decomposition of different factors of core inflation, and in the past year, demand-side factors have
become much more significant, with the pass-through of supply-side inflation to the demand-side. Finally,
President Lagarde summarised the actions taken by the ECB to normalise monetary policy. The main steps
are the fastest interest rate increase ever seen and the recalibration of TLTROs. Furthermore, the Governing
Council will present the main principles for quantitative tightening in December. The ECB Governing
Council’s decisions will continue to be “data-dependent and follow a meeting-by-meeting approach”.
Price stability
Interest rates
EMU governance/fiscal policy
Forecasts/expectations
Inequality/cost-of-living/redistributive effects
Growth/unemployment
Asset purchases
Energy crisis
Member-State-specific
Money supply
Financial stability/banking
Exchange rates/other central banks
Digital euro/cryptocurrency regulation
Climate change considerations
Refinancing operations
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Notes: The interventions were categorised by the authors of this briefing based on the EN-language transcript of the MD of 28
November. These results should be interpreted as indicative as they are subject to interpretations and assumptions of the authors.
8 PE 733.753
Monetary Dialogue - November 2022
PE 733.753 9
IPOL | Economic Governance Support Unit
The evidence suggests that the increase in food and energy prices due
to the war in Ukraine is the main factor driving euro area inflation.
Global factors and It is possible that there is going to be too much tightening of global
K. Whelan
ECB monetary policy financial conditions.
The energy price surge is far more extreme in the euro area, compared
with that in the US.
Global energy price Empirical evidence suggests that US monetary tightening has a
D. Gros &
inflation with a negative impact on demand and inflation abroad, especially on
F. Shamsfakhr
European twist emerging markets.
10 PE 733.753
Monetary Dialogue - November 2022
Finally, commenting on the first presentation, Mr Shin emphasised domestic and international policy
coordination to deal with high inflation and the recession prospects, and he mentioned the UK example of
late September that required the intervention of the BoE because of ineffective coordination.
During the second part of the Preparatory Meeting, inflation differentials were discussed. The first paper was
written by K.-J. Gern, N. Sonnenberg, and U. Stolzenburg assessing the nature and implications of inflation
divergence in the euro area. Mr Gern presented the main evidence of this paper, arguing that headline
inflation dispersion is at historic highs, but using standard deviation as an effective measure of dispersion;
he concludes that headline inflation divergence is mainly driven by the Baltic Member States and Slovakia.
Core inflation, by contrast, still needs to signal a concerning level of divergence, being half the level of
headline inflation dispersion and not yet above its previous high seen in 2008-09, except for the Baltic
countries. Mr Gern, in his final remark, stated that inflation differentials cold be self-reinforcing, leading to
divergence of economic trajectories, and temporary inflation divergences should be kept in check by market
forces and fiscal and structural policies in the Member States.
The final presentation of the Preparatory Meeting was prepared by Mr Geerolf regarding inflation
heterogeneity in the euro area. This paper was co-written by C. Blot, J. Creel, and S. Levasseur. They
incorporated standard deviation to account for inflation dispersion and applied weighted and unweighted
measures, concluding that core inflation dispersion is not as significant as headline inflation and that
weighted measures are almost half the unweighted ones. Mr Geerolf points out that inflation dispersion is
mainly driven by smaller countries, particularly the Baltic Member States, explaining the difference between
weighted and unweighted measures.
Furthermore, in his presentation, Mr Geerolf argues that inflation comes mainly from high inflation in energy
and food and is also affected by the level of nominal rigidities. The evidence he provides does not show any
immediate reason for concern regarding a price-wage spiral. However, he stated that data about indexation
and bargaining power are unavailable, and there is a gap in the literature. The main conclusions by Mr
Geerolf are that monetary policy cannot address on its own the energy and food inflation, that Member
States are affected differently by the monetary tightening because of floating or fixed interest rates, and
that the level of heterogeneity is primarily driven by the Baltics, who generally have effective price
adjustment mechanisms.
PE 733.753 11
IPOL | Economic Governance Support Unit
D. Ruiz Monetary
S&D Studies on helicopter money 17/10/2022 25/11/2022
Devesa Policy
1
The account for monetary policy meeting referred to the discussion between Governing Council members, with some of the them pointing to a 50
bps interest rate increase showing prudence regarding the pace of adjustment and taking into account that the rate hike would be accompanied by
a signal on the need for further future rate hikes.
2
Minimum reserves are the average funds that credit institutions are required to hold in their reserve accounts at their national central bank over a
maintenance period.
3
Mendez-Barreira (2022), in his article, points out that the November amount of early repayments was below market expectation, referring to market
expectations ranging from EUR 200 billion to EUR 1.5 trillion and the median scenario being equal to EUR 600 billion.
4
On 27 October, in an ING publication, Kosonen (2022) presented her thoughts about the early repayments of TLTLROs, explaining why she does
not anticipate a significant drop in the outstanding amount with the early repayment on 23 November.
Disclaimer and copyright. The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the
official position of the European Parliament. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is
acknowledged and the European Parliament is given prior notice and sent a copy. © European Union, 2022.
Contact: egov@ep.europa.eu
12 PE 733.753