The ethical and sustainability dimensions of earthquake research

Natural hazards are de ned as environmental phenomena that may have negative
impacts on societies and the human environment. Earthquake is one of the most
deadly natural hazards and causes damage, destruction, and casualties on a great
scale. When seismic waves are on the Earth's surface, earthquakes can appear as
shaking or displacement of the ground; when earthquakes occur on the sea oor,
seawater displacement can sometimes cause tsunamis.

The Earth’s lithosphere is continually deformed by stress changes due to tectonic

and non-tectonic processes. Such perturbations may trigger seismic activities and
therefore are very important for the understanding of earthquake modulations.
Tectonic forces produce mainshocks that are randomly dispersed in space and time
and are often seen as a source of steady loading. In recent years, the in uence of
external-loading-introduced stress changes are getting the interest of researchers.
Various non-tectonic modules contribute to the external loadings, such as the
hydrosphere, atmosphere, ocean water, tides, and postglacial rebound. The elastic
stresses generated by these natural loading cycles have previously been studied
related to suppressing or enhancing seismic activities. 

Earthquake events have happened all over the world and the most violent
earthquakes occur in subduction zones, where two plates meet and one thrusts
beneath another. Located across two major subduction zones, Japan is one of the
most earthquake-prone regions in the world. With adequate crustal stress research
and well-recorded seismic event catalogs in this seismic active area, seasonal
variations in seismicity have long been suspected and several recent studies have
found the stress variations induced by the non-tectonic loadings can in uence the
seasonal nucleation of seismicity.

In my project, we examine the relationship between external loading variations and

earthquake occurrence in Japan and apply several approaches to determine the
possible correlation between the external loadings and the background earthquake
catalog. This research may take us one step closer to understanding earthquake
nucleation and predicting earthquakes.

Due to its complex nature, the Earthquake triggering mechanism has still not been
fully understood and therefore there are no existing indicators, algorithms, or
systems for precise earthquake prediction, although there are early-alarm forecast
systems available to spread information and noti cations after the earthquakes
occur. A more realistic and feasible application of the scienti c ndings in
earthquake research is the probabilistic seismic prediction, which means the
prediction is given in terms of the occurrence possibility of future earthquake
events. 
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 To communicate such probabilistic prediction to the concerned public, only stating
scienti c results and terms is way less than enough. Uncertainties always come
with probabilities, which is especially hard to handle in the natural hazard risk
reduction circumstance, because miscommunication will lead to misunderstanding
and would eventually result in damage and social impact. How should we
communicate the uncertainty? What is the role of scientists? Would the job of
scientists be listing facts, giving recommendations, or making decisions? The
quality of the communication of uncertainty strongly relates to the trust between the
public and the expert, which is the horizontal relation of the social dimension of
sustainable development. 

One example is the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake in Italy. Six scientists were put on trial
in 2011 for advice they gave at a meeting of an of cial government advisory
committee and were convicted of manslaughter in 2012 due to recommendations
they made before the L'Aquila earthquake disaster and were sentenced to 6 years
in jail. Although later in 2015 another judge overturned the conviction and the
scientists were found not guilty because they tried their best, one can re ect on this
case from many perspectives. 

Another ethical and sustainable aspect relates to seismic activity is how to balance
the need of the current generation and the future generation. It’s long been
suspected that the exploration of gas by hydraulic fracture method may enhance
the microseismicity. Following such theory, the operation of the gas eld in
Groningen, the Netherlands stopped several years ago to suppress the ground
tremors. However, recently, there are discussions in Holland about if Groningen gas
production should be back to cope with the current energy crisis. TBC

However, even if the earthquakes are predictable, there are still some ethical
questions that are worth to be discussed. If a village has a long history and is prone
to encounter seismic activities, does the scientist or the local/national authority
have the right/responsibility to improve their life quality or livelihood, if it required
changing habits or even displacement? What if the improved building style con icts
with their habit, culture, and tradition? Who has the right to de ne what is best for
the local community? TBC

Reference:
1. https://www.science.org/content/article/why-italian-earthquake-scientists-were-
exonerated
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