Afghanistan crisis and challenges to foreign policy of Pakistan

A- Introduction
Peace in Afghanistan is equal to peace in Pakistan
Qamer Javed
bajwa
B_ thesis statement
Owing to internal and external reasons, Afghanistan is facing humanitarian,
social, political and economic crisis, which has become the foreign policy
challenge to Pakistan in the form of militancy, new refugee influx and many
more, which can be addressed with long term and pragmatic foreign policy.
C_ what are the dimensions of crisis in Afghanistan
• Humanitarian crisis
Since the US withdrawal and the Taliban takeover in August 2021, Afghanistan has
been suffering from a worsening humanitarian crisis. Acute malnutrition is now
entrenched across the country. For nearly a year, over 90 percent of households have
not been able to get enough food.

Almost 20 million people – half the population – are suffering either level-3 “crisis” or
level-4 “emergency” levels of food insecurity under the assessment system of
the World Food Program (WFP). Recently, the WFP reported that tens of thousands of
people in one province, Ghor, had slipped into “catastrophic” level-5 acute
malnutrition, a precursor to famine. The WFP has stated that Afghanistan “continues
facing the highest prevalence of insufficient food consumption globally.”

An Afghan humanitarian official told Human Rights Watch in mid-July: “People have
nothing to eat. You may not imagine it, but children are starving…. The situation is
dire, especially if you go to the villages.” He noted that he personally knew a family
who had lost two children to starvation in the last two months, ages 5 and 2.
• Political crisis
Under Taliban Rule, Afghanistan Will Never Have an Inclusive Government. In practice, the
political order the Taliban prefer is incapable of accommodating crucial features like
universal human rights, an inclusive and representative political system, and
compliance with international law. That the Taliban’s ideology and outlook have
remained the same since the 1990s is well-known. However, since August 15, 2021,
the group has had access to enormous power, with which it has imposed its worldview
on all the people of Afghanistan, especially women and minority communities. For
instance, shortly after seizing power, the all-male de facto authorities shut down the
Ministry of Women’s Affairs, and replaced it with the so-called “Ministry for the
Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice,” modeled after the same “moral” police
ministry that committed and aided some of the most heinous crimes against
women during the group’s first stint in power (1996-2001). This ministry was
introduced by the Burhanuddīn Rabbani administration in 1992; after seizing power in
1996, the Taliban not only retained it but empowered it considerably.

• Economic crisis
The political crisis that began in August 2021 led to a significant economic contraction in
Afghanistan, increasing food insecurity and widespread deprivation. The preliminary official GDP
statistics show that economy contracted by 20.7 percent in 2021. The sudden cessation of aid led to
dramatic drop in public spending and aggregate demand, shrinking household incomes and reducing
consumption. Afghanistan’s financial sector remains in crisis. The Central Bank (Da Afghanistan
Bank – DAB) has lost its ability to manage the payment systems and conduct monetary policy due to
the freeze of offshore assets and its inability to print new Afghani currency notes. The resulting
shortage of US dollars and Afghani and the sanctions triggered a confidence crisis in the banking
sector.

• Social crisis
The economy is projected to move to a low growth path (2.0 to 2.4 percent) for the next two years
with no improvement in per capita incomes owing to high population growth and no significant
improvement in poverty or food insecurity outlook. Inflation is expected to remain high immediately
due to global commodity price increases and supply constraints, further eroding the real value of
household incomes. At the same time, interim Taliban administration's restrictive policies on
women’s education and work will lower Afghanistan’s growth prospects.

{The Central Bank (Da Afghanistan Bank – DAB)}

• Security crisis
The emerging picture of Afghanistan’s security landscape under Taliban rule reveals a country
significantly more peaceful than a year ago, but with pockets of violence that threaten greater
 insecurity if not effectively managed. A key feature of the new landscape is the Taliban’s own
changing force posture, which has visibly relaxed across much of the country. Hundreds of
checkpoints on roads and highways have been dismantled, because the Taliban lack manpower to
maintain them and, in any case, do not perceive major threats from the rural villages that hosted their
fighters during the decades of insurgency. At the same time, they are still struggling to adapt to their
new role policing the cities and parts of the north where they are unpopular. As they settle into Kabul
and plan for the future, the Taliban have announced ambitious plans for a large security apparatus but
efforts to build up these forces remain in early stages. The task is likely to take years.

Obtaining an accurate picture of the security environment in Afghanistan has always been difficult,
and it grew harder after the Taliban takeover. Publicly available datasets of violent incidents rely on
media reports, which have become less reliable as the Taliban suppress efforts at enquiry and
opposition groups exaggerate claims of small victories. In areas of intense fighting between rebel
groups and Taliban forces, access for journalists and observers is limited. As a result, open-source
datasets may not fully capture violence trends.

Despite the uncertainty, it is clear that two small conflicts are smouldering. One involves the local
branch of the Islamic State, Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP), which emerged in 2015 and
has intensified its attempts since then to challenge the Taliban. The second conflict involves actors
formerly affiliated with the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, the political order that collapsed in
2021. The National Resistance Front (NRF) emerged as the biggest of these ex-Republic groups,
primarily in Panjshir province north east of Kabul, but many others have proclaimed themselves.
Conflict between the Taliban and predecessors of these groups dates back to the 1990s, but since the
former’s ascent to power in August 2021, the roles of insurgent and counter-insurgent have flipped.

D-Why is Afghanistan crisis a challenge to foreign policy of Pakistan ?

• Owing to shared border, desirability leads towards insecurity in Pakistan
• Recognition of government of Taliban is considered a major challenge to
foreign policy of Pakistan
• Owing to uncertain situation Afghanistan, there is chance of New refugee
influx in Pakistan
• There are chances of high rate of terrorism And insurgencies in Pakistan
• Owing To involvement of Pakistan in peace process of Afghanistan,
relations between Pakistan and western states is not favourable
E-What measures should be taken to counter this challenge to foreign policy
• First of all, Pakistan should handle humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan
 • Pakistan must take all stakeholders on board especially America To
recognise their government
• Pakistan must use its foreign office to convince Taliban to satisfy the
requirements of international Community
• Pakistan must involve regional states in handling the crisis in Afghanistan
• Pakistan must invest in Human development projects in Afghanistan
F- Conclusion